politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4%
Comments
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As a bit of Saturday evening light relief, oor Nicola and the Speccie ...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!0 -
Electoral calculus says otherwise.SMukesh said:Based on this poll on a uniform swing,Labour will gain 40 seats from the Tories and 8 from the Libs and if they lose 30 to the SNP,they will still end up with 276.
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If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England0
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How much longer until full blown panic breaks out in Labour ranks?
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I was out with some colleagues last night, (no pint downing involved) and saw this LD leaflet.
https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/9951/images/
If you look at the small print at the bottom you can see that he is soliciting donations to help Ed win the General Election.
Not sure that was the best way to phrase it! But seems a decent bloke...0 -
...outside London.Big_G_NorthWales said:If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England
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Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
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Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?JohnO said:FPT
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!0 -
More on that 72 year old
https://twitter.com/the_dbh/status/589493098268520449
Now who on earth would throw an egg at a 72 year old.
Typical Labour Scum0 -
It would be so ironic that as the SNP destroy labour in Scotland they also do the same in England with the English voters0
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Its like your embarrasing uncle and aunt with their old schoolteacher.....to embarresed to say no we don't want a selfie with you...so going completely over the top.Carnyx said:As a bit of Saturday evening light relief, oor Nicola and the Speccie ...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!0 -
Labour Bury Bad Poll.Big_G_NorthWales said:No sign of Opinium on the Guardian website yet
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As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu0 -
Electoral Calculus's Lib Dem figures are usually not very reliable IMO. I don't think any serious forecasters apart from Martin Baxter think they'll go below 20.Greenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 20 -
I think I'm one such, f off beakerTheScreamingEagles said:As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu
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If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
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Ed would need to shift to the left on spending to capture moderate Tories.TheScreamingEagles said:As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu0 -
Electoral Calculus predicts 2 Lab gains in London from CON, but CON picking up 3 Lib Dems Seats.AndyJS said:
...outside London.Big_G_NorthWales said:If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England
It won't be like that however, as LD will be stronger and LAB / CON swing greater.0 -
Electoral calculus predicts that Tories will gain 29 seats and lose 21 seats on those figures...lol...
I think you have use a complicated calculator which can compute SNP figures but even then Tories winning 25 seats of Libs is a joke.
Tory seats with 5% lead over Labour is about 40 according to UKPR.0 -
The postal vote is irrelevant. They are politically committed, no campaigning is going to change their minds.weejonnie said:
I wouldn't be too worried about the Social Media websites - that's the chateratti of Islington speaking - the champagne socialists, not the Traditional Labour supporters.trublue said:
The Labour campaign just seems to be banking on the hatred of the Tories, and there's still a lot of it out there judging by some of the comments on social media sites. We're almost certainly not winning a majority of any kind, the only question is can we get enough seats to stop EM from becoming PM? Even after the Labour rout in Scotland, it's still rated about a 50/50 chance who stays at/goes to number 10. That's pretty disappointing to say the least, and shows what kind of mountain we needed to climb to ever have a chance of winning a majority in the first place.MarqueeMark said:
That gets to the heart of this election - where are Labour making the case for change? They just aren't. You look at the employment numbers this week and think - why would you take the risk of serial feck-ups Labour?
Given that 20% of the vote at the last election was cast by postal vote, and more than 34% up North, we have to remember that voting has already started. So if the Conservative campaign is right and we do get a late swing it is not going to have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the election. We need these polls to start showing big leads consistently now as the votes to start going out in the mail.
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HahScrapheap_as_was said:
I think I'm one such, feck off beakerTheScreamingEagles said:As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu0 -
Check out Nelson's twitter time line. Maybe Nicola is making another convert following Dan Hodges recent Damascene moment.Carnyx said:As a bit of Saturday evening light relief, oor Nicola and the Speccie ...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!0 -
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 20 -
I hadn't appreciated the BNP's assimilation within UKIP had been near complete....AndyJS said:
That would be quite an achievement since the BNP don't have any candidates in Wales.marke09 said:2% of Welsh voters are going to vote BNP???
They're standing 8 candidates this time compared to 338 in 2010: Boston, Braintree, Charnwood, Dagenham, Hornchurch, Kingswood, Old Bexley, Rotherham.0 -
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 20 -
I put the LDs down as 14 in the Nojam contest on Thursday. I still think that there is a lot of polling denial by the LDs; just as there was about the SNP initially.AndyJS said:
Electoral Calculus's Lib Dem figures are usually not very reliable IMO. I don't think any serious forecasters apart from Martin Baxter think they'll go below 20.Greenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
I hope that more do survive, but losing 2/3 of the vote, combined with the Ascroft polls in Scotland and SW suggests otherwise. There is betting value to be had, particularly as certainty to vote for the party is lowest of the major parties.0 -
Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.0
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Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....0 -
Rearrange these words. If my uncle she would aunt had had balls have been uncle myMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
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Silly to define it three ways: 'a party of “fiscal discipline” and social conscience that would tackle inequality and keep the UK firmly at the heart of Europe.' The people who care about all three of those are a distinct minority.Danny565 said:
Ed would need to shift to the left on spending to capture moderate Tories.TheScreamingEagles said:As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu0 -
Ed represents just about everything that means I wouldn't vote for him or his party.TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
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Oops, my dramatic outburst earlier was pretty presumptuous even for my standards.
Miliband's personal ratings seem to have stopped rising, though.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov for Sunday Times
Lab 36%
Con 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Leader net approval
Cameron 0
Miliband -18
Clegg -36
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Because Hammond is the candidate there? Isn't this what candidates do?surbiton said:
Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?JohnO said:FPT
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!0 -
How many One Nation Tories are Old Etonians?TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
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Blimey, a bit melodramaticMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
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I think the best idea is just to give up with polls. First it's one way then precisely the other way....poll after poll.
It's just getting stupid now.0 -
Booo gov0
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During the miners strike on the day they had just killed a bloke because someone wanted to work. I had the misfortune to run across a couple of SWP muppets at a tube station in Clapham on the way home from work.rcs1000 said:
That seems a little harsh. I wouldn't take a swing at - for example - a Socialist Worker Party activist no matter how objectionable they were.isam said:
Hope not Hate deserve everything they getvolcanopete said:Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066
One of them shouted out to me "victory to the miners" and I must admit I saw red.
I lost it big time, luckily my other half got in the way before it got beyond verbal fireworks.
Nothing to be proud of but it happens.0 -
YouGov is the Gold Standard!Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov for Sunday Times
Lab 36%
Con 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Leader net approval
Cameron 0
Miliband -18
Clegg -360 -
I'm too young to judge the 80's for I was still in short trousers. All I know is that since the mid to late 90's the natural order of things was restored and my club, Treherbert RFC took on all comers when it came to post match consumption and lets face it, if you're outdrinking the Scots and Irish, you're definitely elite level.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)WelshBertie said:
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.foxinsoxuk said:
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!Flightpath said:
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.kle4 said:
Will we see this in Britain though?JohnO said:Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857
I still have nightmares about the Kangaroo court session in the Imperial Hotel in Cork.
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If my aunt had balls she would had been my uncle uncle?SquareRoot said:
Rearrange these words. If my uncle she would aunt had had balls have been uncle myMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
Is your uncle on here?
Or is marquee mark your uncle?
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Will we get two YouGovs tonight? Maybe the other will be better
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Crikey - 16 polls this week (only 12 last week, 13 Easter week)0
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YouGov has tied itself to an anchor with its revised weightings....Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov is the Gold Standard!Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov for Sunday Times
Lab 36%
Con 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Leader net approval
Cameron 0
Miliband -18
Clegg -360 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
Ed's in trouble when he needs to appeal to Tories to reach his 35% strategy....TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
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Which seats are you thinking they'll take? The recent Ashcroft constituency polls haven't been that great for UKIP (weirdly, the seat-by-seat polls are showing much bigger drops than the relative modest drop they've had in the national polls).isam said:
Blimey, a bit melodramaticMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
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There's a few polls recently where the Tories have been flirting quite heavily with 36%. If they can hold that, and clock up a 4% GB lead on the day, they might (just might) be ok.0
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I'm probably wrong but it feels like there's less polling this time compared to 2010.0
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So long as their expectation of what they can achieve in government is realistic, Labour supporters should still be fairly upbeat - the polls say they are still effectively tied with the Tories, with no guarantee they will under perform from that.0
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YouGov ie either going to be correct....or....look very stupid at the end of this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov is the Gold Standard!Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov for Sunday Times
Lab 36%
Con 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Leader net approval
Cameron 0
Miliband -18
Clegg -36
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And the Tories are not relying on others to reach their '5% gap strategy'?MarqueeMark said:TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
Ed's in trouble when he needs to appeal to Tories to reach his 35% strategy....TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
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Next week we might get nearly 20 polls. 18 for definiteSunil_Prasannan said:Crikey - 16 polls this week (only 12 last week, 13 Easter week)
(7 YouGovs, 2 Populus, 1 ICM, 1 Survation, 1 TNS, 1 Survation, 1 ComRes P, 1 ComRes O, 1 Lord A, 1 Panelbase, 1 Opinium for definite)0 -
I'll take my refusal as not wanting to deal with a braggart who will melt away like snow on 8th May, thank you very much.isam said:
Blimey, a bit melodramaticMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice0 -
Evening all......as I was saying......and down the PB Hodges go.0
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You areAndyJS said:I'm probably wrong but it feels like there's less polling this time compared to 2010.
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No. Just relying on Labour not turning out for Ed....kle4 said:
And the Tories are not relying on others to reach their '5% gap strategy'?MarqueeMark said:TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
Ed's in trouble when he needs to appeal to Tories to reach his 35% strategy....TheScreamingEagles said:Stand up if you're a One Nation Tory and think Ed represents you more than Dave.
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Not that surprising given YouGov has generally been poor for Con for the last couple of weeks.
Also I wonder what proportion of the YouGov sample saw the BBC debate? I would guess 35% to 40% (compared to 10% of the adult population) - and that group will be punishing Cameron for not turning up.0 -
Interesting to cross-match the number of members from the 2009 BNP Membership list [Hat tip Wikieaks] are now standing for UKIP this time around. We have one running for the Council here in South Norfolk.MarqueeMark said:
I hadn't appreciated the BNP's assimilation within UKIP had been near complete....
download.cabledrum.net/wikileaks_archive/file/bnp-members.xls
Bunnco - Your man on the spot
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Indeed. I was in Dublin in Feb 86 the night Wales beat Ireland in the Five Nations and Barry McGuigan defended his world title. To say the pub was rocking would be the understatement of all time. My abiding memory of the next morning as I awoke was a) I'm alive - still b) why is there a half eaten kebab in my hat?WelshBertie said:
I'm too young to judge the 80's for I was still in short trousers. All I know is that since the mid to late 90's the natural order of things was restored and my club, Treherbert RFC took on all comers when it came to post match consumption and lets face it, if you're outdrinking the Scots and Irish, you're definitely elite level.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)WelshBertie said:
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.foxinsoxuk said:
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!Flightpath said:
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.kle4 said:
Will we see this in Britain though?JohnO said:Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857
I still have nightmares about the Kangaroo court session in the Imperial Hotel in Cork.
Great days.0 -
The Ashcroft seats are ones they aren't trying hard in.. that is shown by the polling on "how much correspondence etc have you received from each party"Danny565 said:
Which seats are you thinking they'll take? The recent Ashcroft constituency polls haven't been that great for UKIP (weirdly, the seat-by-seat polls are showing much bigger drops than the relative modest drop they've had in the national polls).isam said:
Blimey, a bit melodramaticMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
If UKIP get 14%, I would expect them to win
Clacton, Rochester, South Thanet, Boston, Castle Point and Thurrock
and possibly a couple from Basildon South, Dudley North, Rotherham, Cannock Chase, Rother Valley, Southend East, North Thanet, Telford, Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby
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foxinsoxuk said:
Impressive!Tony_M said:
I did win a 3 legged pubcrawl round 8 Youngs pubs when at med school with the ladies boat club captain. 8 pints and 8 halves in 24 minutes over a one mile course. Male pride being what it is; I insisted on doing all the pints! My partner was Welsh and carried on drinking at the end...foxinsoxuk said:
Ha! You've played rugby Dr Fox!Tony_M said:"Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!"
Was never too good myself at large quantities of ale. I did however manage a 17 minute optic run, (waiting for a cab to take us to the next pub) the day we won the World Cup. Jonny made me very, very poorly that day...
Not a big pint-drinker myself, either.
Though I once completed a Glasgow "sub-crawl" - 15 stations, 15 whiskies.0 -
Cowardice and trolling then, ok at least we know where we are.MarqueeMark said:
I'll take my refusal as not wanting to deal with a braggart who will melt away like snow on 8th May, thank you very much.isam said:
Blimey, a bit melodramaticMarqueeMark said:
Could. But won't.isam said:
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seatsGreenwich_Floater said:
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.isam said:
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend itGreenwich_Floater said:Electoral Calculus of this poll gives us
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
The dream is dying before your eyes....
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
I am not going to go anywhere because I lose a couple of bets!! I bet all day everyday, this politics betting is just a hobby0 -
These polls are becoming a joke. There seems to be two methodological camps.
ICM, Opinium on the one side the rest on the other.
Exit polling will not be easy.0 -
How often did SLAB canvass Glasgow?surbiton said:
Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?JohnO said:FPT
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!0 -
YouGov = Down The Tubes.
Opinium = Yay!0 -
Okay this is getting scary. When were you there? I was there 83 to 86. Before they tarted the whole union up and ruined it :-)welshowl said:
Do you recall "Drink the Dyfed dry" of the early 80's student union?? Ah Halcyon afternoons and evenings in the Gwent. Got a bit pissed one lunchtime and ended up in Paris the next morning... Oh to be 19 again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)WelshBertie said:
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.foxinsoxuk said:
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!Flightpath said:
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.kle4 said:
Will we see this in Britain though?JohnO said:Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857
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And Opinium panel slept early on Thursday lol!MikeL said:Not that surprising given YouGov has generally been poor for Con for the last couple of weeks.
Also I wonder what proportion of the YouGov sample saw the BBC debate? I would guess 35% to 40% (compared to 10% of the adult population) - and that group will be punishing Cameron for not turning up.0 -
Nah - she's just teasing 'oor FraserNoEasyDay said:
Its like your embarrasing uncle and aunt with their old schoolteacher.....to embarresed to say no we don't want a selfie with you...so going completely over the top.Carnyx said:As a bit of Saturday evening light relief, oor Nicola and the Speccie ...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!0 -
Last call for Finland game
Evening all, for anyone that would like to play the game but hasn't already done so, the closing deadline is 12 noon tomorrow:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/finland/
Many thanks,
DC0 -
The nightmare result in terms of forming another government: the Tories arithmetically unable to form a government, Labour "morally" unable to form a government.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well, well. HisDair said:
Check out Nelson's twitter time line. Maybe Nicola is making another convert following Dan Hodges recent Damascene moment.Carnyx said:As a bit of Saturday evening light relief, oor Nicola and the Speccie ...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!
"@NicolaSturgeon I have 17 aunts and uncles and 32 cousins. You can’t take them all (I hope...)"
was a splendid retort -
but this is an interesting comment, and very true given the reluctance of the Unonist party leaders to meet the ordinary Scot over the last two years:
"Nicola Strurgeon just met my auntie in the street while campaigning. In Scotland, it seems, political leaders meet voters in the street."
"@kmacraeplockton will nothing stop @NicolaSturgeon? where is her entourage? Can’t she just campaign in an empty bloody cowshed like Cameron?"
and
"@theSNP can’t you stop this ‘campaigning in the street meeting voters’ stuff? Can’t you see the havoc its causing? Never heard of a bubble?"
0 -
Kellner's original election campaign prediction was Con 35%, Lab 31% so he's moved Labour up 3 points while the Tories haven't changed. UKIP have slipped from 13% to 11%.0
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In the forest of Dean and Monmouth today. Plenty of David Davies posters up but nothing of note in the FoD.0
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Political studies association seminar on BBC Parliament at the moment. Local forecasts next.0
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I think LD ending at above 20 is difficult to justify. They should spell out which seats they are talking about. If more than 1 in Scotland, then that is wishful thinking.
The Tories really used this rather naïve party and now are chewing out the carcass.0 -
Well, not all accounts. It is baffling that it isn't all, but...the polls are wrong, that's all. And the Tories always underperform those polls, so really, even with the average of polls being about tied, they're 4 points ahead or so. Which, granted, still isn't enough to win for certain, but it's closer at least.TheScreamingEagles said:
I really was hoping for a run of polls with only one party in the lead, however slight, to shift things a little, but the polls won't play ball. Upsetting.0 -
The Labour leader says: “I am a politician of the left, but I am positioned where the mainstream of politics is positioned. I am on the centre ground of politics.”TheScreamingEagles said:
HahScrapheap_as_was said:
I think I'm one such, feck off beakerTheScreamingEagles said:As a one nation Tory, Ed's having a laugh.
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu
So you are exposing policies you don't believe in because of "positioning"
What probability that policies he doesn't believe in are the first to be dropped after the election?0 -
We haven't had a ComRes national poll in April... Against three in March (two phone polls for ITV/Mail and one online poll for IOS)
Surely we'll get one soon?0 -
When did "pole" position become poll position ?kle4 said:
Well, not all accounts. It is baffling that it isn't all, but...the polls are wrong, that's all. And the Tories always underperform those polls, so really, even with the average of polls being about tied, they're 4 points ahead or so. Which, granted, still isn't enough to win for certain, but it's closer at least.TheScreamingEagles said:
I really was hoping for a run of polls with only one party in the lead, however slight, to shift things a little, but the polls won't play ball. Upsetting.0 -
I've always despised that smug fecker Kellner i hope there is a majority either way just to ruin his credibility.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
How can Boris have electrified the election campaign with his statements if he hasn't 'said' them yet (that is, had them reported by the MoS yet)? Maybe the Tory ranks will not be much affected at all.0
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Well, it's part of his own constituency (main reason) but the area where we went canvassing is highly marginal for the Council elections.surbiton said:
Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?JohnO said:FPT
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!0 -
Not for very long. I can't see any stable coalitions coming out of those numbers. What are the current odds on a second election this year?GIN1138 said:
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We had a ComRes phone poll in April, was the day the polls turned and buggered that narrative putting the Tories aheadGIN1138 said:We haven't had a ComRes national poll in April... Against three in March (two phone polls for ITV/Mail and one online poll for IOS)
Surely we'll get one soon?0 -
82-86. So before they tarted it up to the Hanging Gardens or "the banging hardons" as my girlfriend of the time somewhat mischievously called it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Okay this is getting scary. When were you there? I was there 83 to 86. Before they tarted the whole union up and ruined it :-)welshowl said:
Do you recall "Drink the Dyfed dry" of the early 80's student union?? Ah Halcyon afternoons and evenings in the Gwent. Got a bit pissed one lunchtime and ended up in Paris the next morning... Oh to be 19 again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)WelshBertie said:
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.foxinsoxuk said:
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!Flightpath said:
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.kle4 said:
Will we see this in Britain though?JohnO said:Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-323648570 -
Just watching that myself in my b and b for the night!foxinsoxuk said:Political studies association seminar on BBC Parliament at the moment. Local forecasts next.
0 -
I haven't spotted OGH yet.hunchman said:
Just watching that myself in my b and b for the night!foxinsoxuk said:Political studies association seminar on BBC Parliament at the moment. Local forecasts next.
0 -
So, he lashed out ? B*stard.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Except the one on 8th AprilGIN1138 said:We haven't had a ComRes national poll in April... Against three in March (two phone polls for ITV/Mail and one online poll for IOS)
Surely we'll get one soon?
C 34, L 33, UKIP 12, LD 12 Grn 40
