George Osborne, greatest master of economics for the last 500 years and all round PB Hodge hero.Has he gone on one of his holidays or is he lurking the shadows ready to pounce. He seems to have gone missing.
On his way back from Washington after beig hailed by the IMF for the UKs economic success.
He may pop up and mention it this week.
Fox- Osborne's dash to the IMF, for a summit on ebola (of all things), was a political stunt straight out of the Brown copybook. To be honest I guess Lynton and DC were quite happy that he spent a few days away- Osborne doesn't strike me as the type of person you want too close when the pressure is on.
Are you up for the Broxtowe meet before the election on the 5th May at Beeston at the Victoria at 8.00? I know it is a Tuesday, but it is election week after all.
I have a late finish on a Tuesday most weeks, will need to see if I can make it.
I think it may well be a late night though. It'll be a great insight though to get into the inside of a marginal campaign, whichever angle you come from. And I think most of pbCOM (irrespective of political allegiance) is wishing Nick on.
If staying til closing time then I can probably make it.
Is a bit like PB Tory, has a great nebulous approach.
It was coined by Compouter, the same poster who said in Jan/Feb 2014 there wouldn't be any polls showing the Tories ahead between and the election.
With that level of insight....
I still don't understand. Are we taking the p out of Dan Hodges here, and it has become some kind of inner collective, nuanced joke. The EICIPM really maddened me for some time before you told me
I've always taken it to mean a reference to Dan Hodges.
That there are some on here, including left leaning posters, such as Southam and Danny, but mostly Tories, who like Dan Hodges, think Ed Miliband is a bit shite on course to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1983
I'm not sure about this argument... From what I can work out, if the audience were to be reflective of the participants it should have been overwhelmingly left wing shouldn't it? And it was
I think the issue is with Dimbleby's statement that “This is an audience that has been carefully chosen not by the BBC, but by an independent polling organisation to represent the balance between all parties.”
It subsequently came to light that the left wing political parties were overrepresented with a ratio of 2:1.
No. The ratio was:
Con 5 Lab 5 LD 4 UKIP 3 SNP 2 Green 2 PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
George Osborne, greatest master of economics for the last 500 years and all round PB Hodge hero.Has he gone on one of his holidays or is he lurking the shadows ready to pounce. He seems to have gone missing.
On his way back from Washington after beig hailed by the IMF for the UKs economic success.
He may pop up and mention it this week.
Fox- Osborne's dash to the IMF, for a summit on ebola (of all things), was a political stunt straight out of the Brown copybook. To be honest I guess Lynton and DC were quite happy that he spent a few days away- Osborne doesn't strike me as the type of person you want too close when the pressure is on.
Are you up for the Broxtowe meet before the election on the 5th May at Beeston at the Victoria at 8.00? I know it is a Tuesday, but it is election week after all.
I have a late finish on a Tuesday most weeks, will need to see if I can make it.
I think it may well be a late night though. It'll be a great insight though to get into the inside of a marginal campaign, whichever angle you come from. And I think most of pbCOM (irrespective of political allegiance) is wishing Nick on.
If staying til closing time then I can probably make it.
It should be interesting.
Nick said he'd be there for the duration, unless an unseen emergency pulls him away. I'm not his agent though.
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
Tyson, I think it is explained below however,just to clarify, there are a huge number of posters on here who echo the Dan Hodges effect. Every poll, speech, statement, paper headline, day of the week is a disaster for Ed Miliband, no matter what happens.
Is a bit like PB Tory, has a great nebulous approach.
It was coined by Compouter, the same poster who said in Jan/Feb 2014 there wouldn't be any polls showing the Tories ahead between and the election.
With that level of insight....
I still don't understand. Are we taking the p out of Dan Hodges here, and it has become some kind of inner collective, nuanced joke. The EICIPM really maddened me for some time before you told me
I've always taken it to mean a reference to Dan Hodges.
That there are some on here, including left leaning posters, such as Southam and Danny, but mostly Tories, who like Dan Hodges, think Ed Miliband is a bit shite on course to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1983
Finally, finally, I get it. I can down a pint in 2 seconds, but other things I need to work on.
I think I was a PB Hodges until recently. But I have to admire his (EM) tenacity- and in these last months I've donated a few hard earned green to the Labour cause, re-joined the party and want to help out a bit. I'm more enthused than anytime since 1992- but there again I did take the Labour party for granted in the last 20 years when we were the top of the heap.
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
The BBC's days are numbered. As each year passes it becomes harder and harded to justify the vast quantity of money wasted on it. As services like Netflix become increasingly popular there will be less reliance on traditional television. Especially as they are commissioning their own television shows and movies.
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
@isam and compouter Safe in the knowledge that I now know PBHodges. Thanks- and with that, and the fact that it is an hour later in Florence, I am off to bed. Goodnight
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
The BBC's days are numbered. As each year passes it becomes harder and harded to justify the vast quantity of money wasted on it. As services like Netflix become increasingly popular there will be less reliance on traditional television. Especially as they are commissioning their own television shows and movies.
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
Do let us know when Netflix generates anything like the amount of original programming as the Tory-run BBC.
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
The BBC's days are numbered. As each year passes it becomes harder and harded to justify the vast quantity of money wasted on it. As services like Netflix become increasingly popular there will be less reliance on traditional television. Especially as they are commissioning their own television shows and movies.
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
Do let us know when Netflix generates anything like the amount of original programming as the Tory-run BBC.
The BBC admitted they dropped the ball when it came to competing with the online streaming services. They were recently massively outbid by Netflix to commission a new show.
Quality > Quantity - as the employees of BBC3 have found out to their detriment.
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
The BBC's days are numbered. As each year passes it becomes harder and harded to justify the vast quantity of money wasted on it. As services like Netflix become increasingly popular there will be less reliance on traditional television. Especially as they are commissioning their own television shows and movies.
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
Do let us know when Netflix generates anything like the amount of original programming as the Tory-run BBC.
The BBC admitted they dropped the ball when it came to competing with the online streaming services. They were recently massively outbid by Netflix to commission a new show.
Quality > Quantity - as the employees of BBC3 have found out to their detriment.
Quantity does matter. There is a lot wrong with the BBC but if it is to be replaced, then someone has to generate enough hours of new content to fill the channels. One or two high profile series is not enough.
The path to power for Labour is just so much easier- they can afford to be 40 seats behind, and still call the shots.
Yep. Tories seem to be resting their hopes on the fact Labour won't like having to rely on the SNP, but they didn't like relying on the LDs either, and though Lab-SNP likely wouldn't be a full coalition agreement, there are plenty of reasons for both of them not to want to go to the polls again quickly, and as Con-LD have proven, you can last a full term pretty easily if that remains the case.
I think a Labour/SNP administration with a bare majority (if a majority at all) will find it more difficult to last a full term than the Con/Lib administration, which began with a majority of 78, did in the last 5 years.
I'll clamp down on employers not paying immigrant workers the minimum wage.
The truth is you can't (easily) clamp down on employers who work outside the legitimate rules. They are the ones not paying minimum wage, the criminal employers ones that are off the books and under the radar. Extra visits from extra officials and don't find them.
All the polls recently, except the odd ICM one have been within MOE, nothing to get excited about at all. All point to approx 34%:34%. Given that the postal votes are already going out it seems very unlikely much will change at all in next 18 days.
The conclusion from this is that the anti tory block is almost certain to have at least 323 votes in HoC which means that David Cameron will be unable to form a government, however many seats he actually ends up with. My guess is he will not leave No10 until forced to do so by loosing a vote of confidence (I suspect this was behind the shenanigans with Bercow on the last day of term) which will all be very unpleasant and no good for politics in general, it will certainly wind up the tory posters on here
A close relative who had assured me she was going to vote Labour told me yesterday she had changed her mind and was now going to vote Conservative.
"Why?" I asked
"Because the Conservatives were going to pay for 33 hours a week child minding" she answered sheepishly.
I knew then the game was up for Ed.
I posted the other day, out canvassing that was the policy most mentioned on the doorstep, not Right to Buy, or anything else.
Really? The number who have mentioned it to my teams is zero. To be honest we're not hearing much from anyone's manifesto. Everyone is soft-focused - "we need fairer govenment" vs "I think Cameron's doing OK".
One thing I've noticed in the last few days is that a few LibDems are surfacing after weeks when their stated support was nil - had one today who said she thought Clegg had done a magnificent job in curbing the Tories, and another who simply said flatly that he and his wife were LD loyalists. Nor a significant number, but no longer quite on the floor.
I'm not sure about this argument... From what I can work out, if the audience were to be reflective of the participants it should have been overwhelmingly left wing shouldn't it? And it was
I think the issue is with Dimbleby's statement that “This is an audience that has been carefully chosen not by the BBC, but by an independent polling organisation to represent the balance between all parties.”
It subsequently came to light that the left wing political parties were overrepresented with a ratio of 2:1.
No. The ratio was:
Con 5 Lab 5 LD 4 UKIP 3 SNP 2 Green 2 PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
So that is 17 to 5 in favour of right wing Parties
I think the time to get tough was quite a while ago to be honest. There should have been a lot of attempts to settle the score after the victory in the euros -a good place to start might have been that polling company that misrepresented Farage's comment about 'a group of Romanian men' in a poll, asking their sample a question about 'a Romanian family', which whether a genuine error or not, merited at least a wholehearted apology. Then there was the Electoral Commission allowing AIFE to stand. If they'd been brutal from the beginning and looked for examples to be made, things would be easier now.
The BBC's days are numbered. As each year passes it becomes harder and harded to justify the vast quantity of money wasted on it. As services like Netflix become increasingly popular there will be less reliance on traditional television. Especially as they are commissioning their own television shows and movies.
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
Do let us know when Netflix generates anything like the amount of original programming as the Tory-run BBC.
The BBC admitted they dropped the ball when it came to competing with the online streaming services. They were recently massively outbid by Netflix to commission a new show.
Quality > Quantity - as the employees of BBC3 have found out to their detriment.
Quantity does matter. There is a lot wrong with the BBC but if it is to be replaced, then someone has to generate enough hours of new content to fill the channels. One or two high profile series is not enough.
I'm not sure about this argument... From what I can work out, if the audience were to be reflective of the participants it should have been overwhelmingly left wing shouldn't it? And it was
I think the issue is with Dimbleby's statement that “This is an audience that has been carefully chosen not by the BBC, but by an independent polling organisation to represent the balance between all parties.”
It subsequently came to light that the left wing political parties were overrepresented with a ratio of 2:1.
No. The ratio was:
Con 5 Lab 5 LD 4 UKIP 3 SNP 2 Green 2 PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
How does having the LDs as 80% of the Tories or Labour at all represent the last GE or polls? Or how do you make the nats and greens combined equal to the two main parties? Are those three parties polling a third of the national vote? Or getting 250-300 MPs? In what universe are the Greens equivalent to 40% of the Tories and Labour?
Also the entire audience I believe barring the nats came from within a 20 mile radius of the venue. Because any 20 mile radius is representative of a whole nation.
All this fuss could have been avoided if the BBC had chosen to follow basic global election debate etiquette and had a silent audience.
I'm not sure about this argument... From what I can work out, if the audience were to be reflective of the participants it should have been overwhelmingly left wing shouldn't it? And it was
I think the issue is with Dimbleby's statement that “This is an audience that has been carefully chosen not by the BBC, but by an independent polling organisation to represent the balance between all parties.”
It subsequently came to light that the left wing political parties were overrepresented with a ratio of 2:1.
No. The ratio was:
Con 5 Lab 5 LD 4 UKIP 3 SNP 2 Green 2 PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
What are these ratios supposed to represent and who decided them, the BBC or the polling company?
It surely can't be representative on any basis for SNP, Green and PC to have as high a proportion as the Conservatives.
Also the LDs are right wing on economics and left wing on welfare - so neither right nor left - or both.
I'm not sure about this argument... From what I can work out, if the audience were to be reflective of the participants it should have been overwhelmingly left wing shouldn't it? And it was
I think the issue is with Dimbleby's statement that “This is an audience that has been carefully chosen not by the BBC, but by an independent polling organisation to represent the balance between all parties.”
It subsequently came to light that the left wing political parties were overrepresented with a ratio of 2:1.
No. The ratio was:
Con 5 Lab 5 LD 4 UKIP 3 SNP 2 Green 2 PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
So that is 17 to 5 in favour of right wing Parties
Yes, it s farcical how biased the audience was against Nicola but she still managed to persuade people of her cause. Absolutely phenomenal politics. If you watched the post-debate show, you would have seen that even a Kipper was persuaded by Nicola.
The objection from UKIP isn't that there wasn't enough right wing supporters - as clearly there was a 17:5 ratio of right wing supporters. Their complaint is that there wasn't enough race hate fascists, which clearly is a problem for them.
If you watch the audience cuts of the debate, you see that when there is applause for a point it is not universal. Farage problem was that he couldn't get a response from even his own supporters, such was the weak and insipid level of his arguments.
I can see situations where Labour launch a vote of no confidence hoping to lose it - and telling their MPs to vote against it - to enable a general election - but the Tories and SNP vote in favour (i.e. they have confidence)!
Indeed. The current figures obviously suggest a CON-SNP deal, but for some reason a lot of people have fallen for this idea that the SNP are on the other side of LAB from CON. The CON-SNP deal could be dressed up as something ever so special - neither a coalition nor a 'supply and confidence', but some new kind of animal made up for the occasion (to please respective markets as much as feasible), but nonetheless, a CON-SNP deal is what the figures indicate.
Although personally I think there will probably be a majority government, either CON or LAB. Thinking hung parliaments are more likely nowadays, because there's just been one and the polls blah blah, seems to be a mixture of the gambler's fallacy and reading too many polls.
All the polls recently, except the odd ICM one have been within MOE, nothing to get excited about at all. All point to approx 34%:34%. Given that the postal votes are already going out it seems very unlikely much will change at all in next 18 days.
What exactly is the chain of logic from which you get from flatness of polls in the recent past to a continuation of that flatness all the way until the real thing?
Eighteen days is an extremely long time. Anything could happen. There could be a horrific terror attack. Chechens could take over a West End theatre and get besieged by the SAS.
Someone could leak a video of Ed Milband saying something he'd rather keep quiet, about Jimmy Savile or the royal family. Farage could get a skin disease. Sturgeon could be caught on tape expressing her real view of the population, just as Gordon Brown did in that car in 2010. Something could happen at Dover, in the Channel, or in the Falklands. Late election-changers have happened in many countries - in France, Russia, Spain, the US.
I really hope you don't risk any of your money on your view of what "seems very unlikely".
So given that you think con or lab majority is nailed on I tAke it you are betting on the very generous odds available.
I've dutched on a CON or LAB majority. I might not wait until the day, though. Any poll before 7 May that breaks the flatness pattern will be bigger news than one that doesn't, and have more of an effect, causing the odds on a hung parliament to lengthen. I wouldn't sell volatility in this market.
Comments
It should be interesting.
That there are some on here, including left leaning posters, such as Southam and Danny, but mostly Tories, who like Dan Hodges, think Ed Miliband is a bit shite on course to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1983
Con 5
Lab 5
LD 4
UKIP 3
SNP 2
Green 2
PC 1
The accusation arose from someone deciding to define the LDs as left-wing. It's not for anyone to define the LDs as anything - they are a party entitled to be represented appropriately whatever wing people think they are.
The ratio was entirely reasonable given the last GE, polls and Ofcom ruling.
18/04/2015 23:56
I canvassed my first Lib Dem voter of the campaign today
Did my PM message reach you. ( I'm a bit crap with the technology!)
Great Stuff!
I think I was a PB Hodges until recently. But I have to admire his (EM) tenacity- and in these last months I've donated a few hard earned green to the Labour cause, re-joined the party and want to help out a bit. I'm more enthused than anytime since 1992- but there again I did take the Labour party for granted in the last 20 years when we were the top of the heap.
just crafting a reply now.
:-)
If the Tories manage to scrape together enough MPs to form some sort of government they will more than likely either freeze the license fee (which will mean cuts will be required at the BBC) or scrap it altogether.
The Electoral Commission are a disgrace. They have failed to address potential cases of widespread fraud in places such as Tower Hamlets. Again, another organisation which are not fit for purpose.
Safe in the knowledge that I now know PBHodges. Thanks- and with that, and the fact that it is an hour later in Florence, I am off to bed. Goodnight
Hilarious on more than one level.
Quality > Quantity - as the employees of BBC3 have found out to their detriment.
One thing I've noticed in the last few days is that a few LibDems are surfacing after weeks when their stated support was nil - had one today who said she thought Clegg had done a magnificent job in curbing the Tories, and another who simply said flatly that he and his wife were LD loyalists. Nor a significant number, but no longer quite on the floor.
www.bbc.Co.UK/live/election
Also the entire audience I believe barring the nats came from within a 20 mile radius of the venue. Because any 20 mile radius is representative of a whole nation.
All this fuss could have been avoided if the BBC had chosen to follow basic global election debate etiquette and had a silent audience.
It surely can't be representative on any basis for SNP, Green and PC to have as high a proportion as the Conservatives.
Also the LDs are right wing on economics and left wing on welfare - so neither right nor left - or both.
The objection from UKIP isn't that there wasn't enough right wing supporters - as clearly there was a 17:5 ratio of right wing supporters. Their complaint is that there wasn't enough race hate fascists, which clearly is a problem for them.
If you watch the audience cuts of the debate, you see that when there is applause for a point it is not universal. Farage problem was that he couldn't get a response from even his own supporters, such was the weak and insipid level of his arguments.
Tough. So the problem is the monarchy. Let the sitting prime minister give the speech. Sorted.
Whether there is a viable government is tested by a vote in the House of Commons. The hell with the role of a hereditary monarch.
Eighteen days is an extremely long time. Anything could happen. There could be a horrific terror attack. Chechens could take over a West End theatre and get besieged by the SAS.
Someone could leak a video of Ed Milband saying something he'd rather keep quiet, about Jimmy Savile or the royal family. Farage could get a skin disease. Sturgeon could be caught on tape expressing her real view of the population, just as Gordon Brown did in that car in 2010. Something could happen at Dover, in the Channel, or in the Falklands. Late election-changers have happened in many countries - in France, Russia, Spain, the US.
I really hope you don't risk any of your money on your view of what "seems very unlikely".
I might not wait until the day, though. Any poll before 7 May that breaks the flatness pattern will be bigger news than one that doesn't, and have more of an effect, causing the odds on a hung parliament to lengthen. I wouldn't sell volatility in this market.