Based on this poll on a uniform swing,Labour will gain 40 seats from the Tories and 8 from the Libs and if they lose 30 to the SNP,they will still end up with 276.
If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England
If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Its like your embarrasing uncle and aunt with their old schoolteacher.....to embarresed to say no we don't want a selfie with you...so going completely over the top.
CON 304 LAB 259 LIB 10 UKIP 1 GREEN 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
Electoral Calculus's Lib Dem figures are usually not very reliable IMO. I don't think any serious forecasters apart from Martin Baxter think they'll go below 20.
If the SNP problem for labour really starts showing in the polls, and with the media obsession with them, labour may struggle to take any conservative marginals in England
...outside London.
Electoral Calculus predicts 2 Lab gains in London from CON, but CON picking up 3 Lib Dems Seats.
It won't be like that however, as LD will be stronger and LAB / CON swing greater.
That gets to the heart of this election - where are Labour making the case for change? They just aren't. You look at the employment numbers this week and think - why would you take the risk of serial feck-ups Labour?
The Labour campaign just seems to be banking on the hatred of the Tories, and there's still a lot of it out there judging by some of the comments on social media sites. We're almost certainly not winning a majority of any kind, the only question is can we get enough seats to stop EM from becoming PM? Even after the Labour rout in Scotland, it's still rated about a 50/50 chance who stays at/goes to number 10. That's pretty disappointing to say the least, and shows what kind of mountain we needed to climb to ever have a chance of winning a majority in the first place.
Given that 20% of the vote at the last election was cast by postal vote, and more than 34% up North, we have to remember that voting has already started. So if the Conservative campaign is right and we do get a late swing it is not going to have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the election. We need these polls to start showing big leads consistently now as the votes to start going out in the mail.
I wouldn't be too worried about the Social Media websites - that's the chateratti of Islington speaking - the champagne socialists, not the Traditional Labour supporters.
The postal vote is irrelevant. They are politically committed, no campaigning is going to change their minds.
CON 304 LAB 259 LIB 10 UKIP 1 GREEN 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
Electoral Calculus's Lib Dem figures are usually not very reliable IMO. I don't think any serious forecasters apart from Martin Baxter think they'll go below 20.
I put the LDs down as 14 in the Nojam contest on Thursday. I still think that there is a lot of polling denial by the LDs; just as there was about the SNP initially.
I hope that more do survive, but losing 2/3 of the vote, combined with the Ascroft polls in Scotland and SW suggests otherwise. There is betting value to be had, particularly as certainty to vote for the party is lowest of the major parties.
How much longer until full blown panic breaks out in Labour ranks?
I think a few successive YouGov polls with Con leads would start a bit of a panic. YouGov's stale panel has been so static it may have drowned out real movements in public opinion.
Ed would need to shift to the left on spending to capture moderate Tories.
Silly to define it three ways: 'a party of “fiscal discipline” and social conscience that would tackle inequality and keep the UK firmly at the heart of Europe.' The people who care about all three of those are a distinct minority.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?
Because Hammond is the candidate there? Isn't this what candidates do?
That seems a little harsh. I wouldn't take a swing at - for example - a Socialist Worker Party activist no matter how objectionable they were.
During the miners strike on the day they had just killed a bloke because someone wanted to work. I had the misfortune to run across a couple of SWP muppets at a tube station in Clapham on the way home from work.
One of them shouted out to me "victory to the miners" and I must admit I saw red.
I lost it big time, luckily my other half got in the way before it got beyond verbal fireworks.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Will we see this in Britain though?
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)
I'm too young to judge the 80's for I was still in short trousers. All I know is that since the mid to late 90's the natural order of things was restored and my club, Treherbert RFC took on all comers when it came to post match consumption and lets face it, if you're outdrinking the Scots and Irish, you're definitely elite level.
I still have nightmares about the Kangaroo court session in the Imperial Hotel in Cork.
CON 304 LAB 259 LIB 10 UKIP 1 GREEN 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend it
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seats
Could. But won't.
The dream is dying before your eyes....
Blimey, a bit melodramatic
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
Which seats are you thinking they'll take? The recent Ashcroft constituency polls haven't been that great for UKIP (weirdly, the seat-by-seat polls are showing much bigger drops than the relative modest drop they've had in the national polls).
There's a few polls recently where the Tories have been flirting quite heavily with 36%. If they can hold that, and clock up a 4% GB lead on the day, they might (just might) be ok.
So long as their expectation of what they can achieve in government is realistic, Labour supporters should still be fairly upbeat - the polls say they are still effectively tied with the Tories, with no guarantee they will under perform from that.
Not that surprising given YouGov has generally been poor for Con for the last couple of weeks.
Also I wonder what proportion of the YouGov sample saw the BBC debate? I would guess 35% to 40% (compared to 10% of the adult population) - and that group will be punishing Cameron for not turning up.
I hadn't appreciated the BNP's assimilation within UKIP had been near complete....
Interesting to cross-match the number of members from the 2009 BNP Membership list [Hat tip Wikieaks] are now standing for UKIP this time around. We have one running for the Council here in South Norfolk.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Will we see this in Britain though?
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)
I'm too young to judge the 80's for I was still in short trousers. All I know is that since the mid to late 90's the natural order of things was restored and my club, Treherbert RFC took on all comers when it came to post match consumption and lets face it, if you're outdrinking the Scots and Irish, you're definitely elite level.
I still have nightmares about the Kangaroo court session in the Imperial Hotel in Cork.
Indeed. I was in Dublin in Feb 86 the night Wales beat Ireland in the Five Nations and Barry McGuigan defended his world title. To say the pub was rocking would be the understatement of all time. My abiding memory of the next morning as I awoke was a) I'm alive - still b) why is there a half eaten kebab in my hat?
CON 304 LAB 259 LIB 10 UKIP 1 GREEN 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
If I put the 1st team batting's total in as 175 into my 2008 t20 model it makes them the best bet ever to defend it
Using the same metaphors, UKIP need to score 420 in their 20 overs to get more than 3 seats.
No if Ukip get 14% they could easily get 6-7 seats
Could. But won't.
The dream is dying before your eyes....
Blimey, a bit melodramatic
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
Which seats are you thinking they'll take? The recent Ashcroft constituency polls haven't been that great for UKIP (weirdly, the seat-by-seat polls are showing much bigger drops than the relative modest drop they've had in the national polls).
The Ashcroft seats are ones they aren't trying hard in.. that is shown by the polling on "how much correspondence etc have you received from each party"
If UKIP get 14%, I would expect them to win
Clacton, Rochester, South Thanet, Boston, Castle Point and Thurrock
and possibly a couple from Basildon South, Dudley North, Rotherham, Cannock Chase, Rother Valley, Southend East, North Thanet, Telford, Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby
I did win a 3 legged pubcrawl round 8 Youngs pubs when at med school with the ladies boat club captain. 8 pints and 8 halves in 24 minutes over a one mile course. Male pride being what it is; I insisted on doing all the pints! My partner was Welsh and carried on drinking at the end...
Impressive!
Was never too good myself at large quantities of ale. I did however manage a 17 minute optic run, (waiting for a cab to take us to the next pub) the day we won the World Cup. Jonny made me very, very poorly that day...
Not a big pint-drinker myself, either. Though I once completed a Glasgow "sub-crawl" - 15 stations, 15 whiskies.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Will we see this in Britain though?
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)
Do you recall "Drink the Dyfed dry" of the early 80's student union?? Ah Halcyon afternoons and evenings in the Gwent. Got a bit pissed one lunchtime and ended up in Paris the next morning... Oh to be 19 again.
Okay this is getting scary. When were you there? I was there 83 to 86. Before they tarted the whole union up and ruined it :-)
Not that surprising given YouGov has generally been poor for Con for the last couple of weeks.
Also I wonder what proportion of the YouGov sample saw the BBC debate? I would guess 35% to 40% (compared to 10% of the adult population) - and that group will be punishing Cameron for not turning up.
Its like your embarrasing uncle and aunt with their old schoolteacher.....to embarresed to say no we don't want a selfie with you...so going completely over the top.
The nightmare result in terms of forming another government: the Tories arithmetically unable to form a government, Labour "morally" unable to form a government.
Kellner's original election campaign prediction was Con 35%, Lab 31% so he's moved Labour up 3 points while the Tories haven't changed. UKIP have slipped from 13% to 11%.
I think LD ending at above 20 is difficult to justify. They should spell out which seats they are talking about. If more than 1 in Scotland, then that is wishful thinking.
The Tories really used this rather naïve party and now are chewing out the carcass.
Well, not all accounts. It is baffling that it isn't all, but...the polls are wrong, that's all. And the Tories always underperform those polls, so really, even with the average of polls being about tied, they're 4 points ahead or so. Which, granted, still isn't enough to win for certain, but it's closer at least.
I really was hoping for a run of polls with only one party in the lead, however slight, to shift things a little, but the polls won't play ball. Upsetting.
The Labour leader says: “I am a politician of the left, but I am positioned where the mainstream of politics is positioned. I am on the centre ground of politics.”
So you are exposing policies you don't believe in because of "positioning"
What probability that policies he doesn't believe in are the first to be dropped after the election?
Well, not all accounts. It is baffling that it isn't all, but...the polls are wrong, that's all. And the Tories always underperform those polls, so really, even with the average of polls being about tied, they're 4 points ahead or so. Which, granted, still isn't enough to win for certain, but it's closer at least.
I really was hoping for a run of polls with only one party in the lead, however slight, to shift things a little, but the polls won't play ball. Upsetting.
How can Boris have electrified the election campaign with his statements if he hasn't 'said' them yet (that is, had them reported by the MoS yet)? Maybe the Tory ranks will not be much affected at all.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Why do the Tories need to canvass Weybridge ?
Well, it's part of his own constituency (main reason) but the area where we went canvassing is highly marginal for the Council elections.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Will we see this in Britain though?
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.
Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!
I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.
Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)
Do you recall "Drink the Dyfed dry" of the early 80's student union?? Ah Halcyon afternoons and evenings in the Gwent. Got a bit pissed one lunchtime and ended up in Paris the next morning... Oh to be 19 again.
Okay this is getting scary. When were you there? I was there 83 to 86. Before they tarted the whole union up and ruined it :-)
82-86. So before they tarted it up to the Hanging Gardens or "the banging hardons" as my girlfriend of the time somewhat mischievously called it.
Comments
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/589436498304495616
I have to say he did manage quite a good retort!
https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/9951/images/
If you look at the small print at the bottom you can see that he is soliciting donations to help Ed win the General Election.
Not sure that was the best way to phrase it! But seems a decent bloke...
CON 304
LAB 259
LIB 10
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
would suggest LD might end up higher at the expense of the big 2
https://twitter.com/the_dbh/status/589493098268520449
Now who on earth would throw an egg at a 72 year old.
Typical Labour Scum
Ed Miliband issues call to moderate Tories: I’ll be your champion
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu
It won't be like that however, as LD will be stronger and LAB / CON swing greater.
I think you have use a complicated calculator which can compute SNP figures but even then Tories winning 25 seats of Libs is a joke.
Tory seats with 5% lead over Labour is about 40 according to UKPR.
I hope that more do survive, but losing 2/3 of the vote, combined with the Ascroft polls in Scotland and SW suggests otherwise. There is betting value to be had, particularly as certainty to vote for the party is lowest of the major parties.
The dream is dying before your eyes....
Miliband's personal ratings seem to have stopped rising, though.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov for Sunday Times
Lab 36%
Con 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Leader net approval
Cameron 0
Miliband -18
Clegg -36
I will bet you as much as you like at evens that if Ukip get 14% they get 6 seats
And if they get less the bet is void
I'll take any refusal as an admittance of trolling and cowardice
It's just getting stupid now.
One of them shouted out to me "victory to the miners" and I must admit I saw red.
I lost it big time, luckily my other half got in the way before it got beyond verbal fireworks.
Nothing to be proud of but it happens.
I still have nightmares about the Kangaroo court session in the Imperial Hotel in Cork.
Is your uncle on here?
Or is marquee mark your uncle?
(7 YouGovs, 2 Populus, 1 ICM, 1 Survation, 1 TNS, 1 Survation, 1 ComRes P, 1 ComRes O, 1 Lord A, 1 Panelbase, 1 Opinium for definite)
Also I wonder what proportion of the YouGov sample saw the BBC debate? I would guess 35% to 40% (compared to 10% of the adult population) - and that group will be punishing Cameron for not turning up.
download.cabledrum.net/wikileaks_archive/file/bnp-members.xls
Bunnco - Your man on the spot
Great days.
If UKIP get 14%, I would expect them to win
Clacton, Rochester, South Thanet, Boston, Castle Point and Thurrock
and possibly a couple from Basildon South, Dudley North, Rotherham, Cannock Chase, Rother Valley, Southend East, North Thanet, Telford, Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby
Not a big pint-drinker myself, either.
Though I once completed a Glasgow "sub-crawl" - 15 stations, 15 whiskies.
I am not going to go anywhere because I lose a couple of bets!! I bet all day everyday, this politics betting is just a hobby
https://twitter.com/charleshymas/status/589527419264045057
ICM, Opinium on the one side the rest on the other.
Exit polling will not be easy.
Opinium = Yay!
Evening all, for anyone that would like to play the game but hasn't already done so, the closing deadline is 12 noon tomorrow:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/finland/
Many thanks,
DC
"@NicolaSturgeon I have 17 aunts and uncles and 32 cousins. You can’t take them all (I hope...)"
was a splendid retort -
but this is an interesting comment, and very true given the reluctance of the Unonist party leaders to meet the ordinary Scot over the last two years:
"Nicola Strurgeon just met my auntie in the street while campaigning. In Scotland, it seems, political leaders meet voters in the street."
"@kmacraeplockton will nothing stop @NicolaSturgeon? where is her entourage? Can’t she just campaign in an empty bloody cowshed like Cameron?"
and
"@theSNP can’t you stop this ‘campaigning in the street meeting voters’ stuff? Can’t you see the havoc its causing? Never heard of a bubble?"
The Tories really used this rather naïve party and now are chewing out the carcass.
I really was hoping for a run of polls with only one party in the lead, however slight, to shift things a little, but the polls won't play ball. Upsetting.
So you are exposing policies you don't believe in because of "positioning"
What probability that policies he doesn't believe in are the first to be dropped after the election?
Surely we'll get one soon?
C 34, L 33, UKIP 12, LD 12 Grn 4