politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4%

First?

FPT:

Danny565 said:

rottenborough said:

Those of us who have bet on EICIPM need to hold our nerve tonight. All is within the margin of error.

The most worrying thing isn't even the polls, it's that over the past week Labour have let the Tories start setting the terms of the debate again.

Look at the Opinium tables, The Tories are holding onto more of their 2010 vote and leeching much more of Labour's 2010 vote than the reverse. Labour are basically reliant on the 25-30% of Lib Dem 2010 voters who have switched to them turning up for them on the day. Not a position I would want to be in. As I said before the manifesto reveals when the Tories were going massively negative and Ed was playing to his 35%, they had that reason and the Tories weren't giving people a positive vision or reason to vote for them. Post manifesto this has been oddly reversed with Ed talking the language of cuts and austerity and Dave talking about £8bn more for the NHS vs Reeves saying £2.5bn and trying to discredit the £8bn figure.

I don't think Labour can hit the 35% on their manifesto as a platform, but the Tories should be able to get enough in the centre to be the largest party. Dave even brought back his Big Society crap for good measure, so clearly someone in the party is thinking clearly enough to see that the Tories need to offer a positive vision for the future of the nation. Labour's strategists seem to have lost their heads with the manifesto, any talk of policies being held back is just wishful thinking, the first question will be "why wasn't this in the manifesto, is it a policy or an aspiration", "well if it is a real policy then why not put it in the manifesto" ad nauseam.

John O from the previous thread

"Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!"


Thought it was worth flagging up. You have to love the UK- although your final sentence is a bit worrying.

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

I sense a downward moodswing for the PB Hodges.

**** Opens up Popcorn ****

JohnO said:

FPT

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

I and I'm sure many other PBers have been fretting endlessly that the Miliband army would be ravaging through the elysian fields of Hersham.

Tis quite a relief to hear that a cabinet minister has been deployed to fend off the red hordes in such a hyper marginal. Just as well he wasn't needed elsewhere.

kle4 said:

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

Farage shouts from Thanet South .... "Amateur !!"

saddo said:

kle4 said:

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

For a start Miliband is on record saying he's never binned a pint in one in his life. Does Justin let him have fizzy drinks yet?

I have an unbeaten record of downing a pint- circa 2 seconds against hundreds of challengers. As a student it served me well because people would buy me a pint to see a race which I always won. I wish I was naturally talented at something more useful, but you cannot have it all.

MarqueeMark said:

Danny565 said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

Danny565 said:

rottenborough said:

Those of us who have bet on EICIPM need to hold our nerve tonight. All is within the margin of error.

The most worrying thing isn't even the polls, it's that over the past week Labour have let the Tories start setting the terms of the debate again.

Look at the Opinium tables, The Tories are holding onto more of their 2010 vote and leeching much more of Labour's 2010 vote than the reverse. Labour are basically reliant on the 25-30% of Lib Dem 2010 voters who have switched to them turning up for them on the day. Not a position I would want to be in. As I said before the manifesto reveals when the Tories were going massively negative and Ed was playing to his 35%, they had that reason and the Tories weren't giving people a positive vision or reason to vote for them. Post manifesto this has been oddly reversed with Ed talking the language of cuts and austerity and Dave talking about £8bn more for the NHS vs Reeves saying £2.5bn and trying to discredit the £8bn figure.

I don't think Labour can hit the 35% on their manifesto as a platform, but the Tories should be able to get enough in the centre to be the largest party. Dave even brought back his Big Society crap for good measure, so clearly someone in the party is thinking clearly enough to see that the Tories need to offer a positive vision for the future of the nation. Labour's strategists seem to have lost their heads with the manifesto, any talk of policies being held back is just wishful thinking, the first question will be "why wasn't this in the manifesto, is it a policy or an aspiration", "well if it is a real policy then why not put it in the manifesto" ad nauseam.

A small Tory Majority on less votes than they got in 2010 is possible imo, on a dismal turnout, because of how un-enthused "traditional" Labour voters are -- they're not going to care enough to go to the polling stations simply to vote for more cuts.

That gets to the heart of this election - where are Labour making the case for change? They just aren't. You look at the employment numbers this week and think - why would you take the risk of serial feck-ups Labour?

Exactly. Labour are offering no alternative to cuts which has spooked their core vote and a lot of their centrist voters who are more interested in sunny uplands and an extra £8bn in NHS spending. It is a really strange choice from Labour to campaign on cuts and austerity. They will never be able to beat the Tories on economic competence but they can on public services.

From the header:

...as ever we need more polling

Damn it man, will nothing satisfy you! Think of the poor pollsters, working themselves to death for this election cycle.

weejonnie said:

Sleazy Broken UKIP on the slide. Oh wait . . .

On a slightly more important note - if UKIP are being squeezed in the marginals then where is their vote going to appear?

If this trend continues UKIP will be in low single digits...

Maybe it is being stacked in ultra safe seats where it will make no difference.

kle4 said:

From the header:

...as ever we need more polling

Damn it man, will nothing satisfy you! Think of the poor pollsters, working themselves to death for this election cycle.

Well I don't want to go all Guardian and do a thread header saying

"The day the polls turned"

Good to see so many of the pb "old guard" back posting.
(I posted as "Alan" or "Alan J" back in 2005)

MP_SE said:

weejonnie said:

Sleazy Broken UKIP on the slide. Oh wait . . .

On a slightly more important note - if UKIP are being squeezed in the marginals then where is their vote going to appear?

If this trend continues UKIP will be in low single digits...

Maybe it is being stacked in ultra safe seats where it will make no difference.

This is one of the requirements for greater efficiency of the Tory vote, and for the Lab most votes Con most seats bet to work, along with SLAB being slaughtered by the SNP.

It is not completely ridiculous, and Shadsy still has it as 25/1 I think.

roserees64 said:

A motivational poll for Labour activists! A good poll at this stage in the proceedings as it underlines the need for persistent groundwork.However the caveat is the doubt about upticks for Libs and the Kippers. Predictions give 34/34 as the most likely true picture in terms of mathematical probability.

well, that's one way of looking at it.

always best to ignore polls you don't like.

roserees64 said:

A motivational poll for Labour activists!

Indeed so Mr64, and let’s hope there are many more of these ‘motivational polls’ to come

saddo said:

tyson said:

saddo said:

kle4 said:

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

For a start Miliband is on record saying he's never binned a pint in one in his life. Does Justin let him have fizzy drinks yet?

I have an unbeaten record of downing a pint- circa 2 seconds against hundreds of challengers. As a student it served me well because people would buy me a pint to see a race which I always won. I wish I was naturally talented at something more useful, but you cannot have it all.

Start charging £10k a pop as a pint dropping consultant and Ed will sign you up - paid for by taxpayers of course.

And like Ken Livingstone you can set yourself up as a limited company and pay no tax.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

From the header:

...as ever we need more polling

Damn it man, will nothing satisfy you! Think of the poor pollsters, working themselves to death for this election cycle.

Well I don't want to go all Guardian and do a thread header saying

"The day the polls turned"

ARF! Another one, positioned next to "Gamechanger" "Crossover" and "Ed will never be PM".

Flightpath said:

Re Harry Cole and craft beer - if it is craft beer and he likes it then Ed has just lost the CAMRA vote. I can't believe he could be so simple as to stumble into such a minefield of a controversial subject.

Minefield neatly summarised here!

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2013/jun/13/craft-beer-guide-beginners.

Good beer is good beer; but hard to find such excellent craft beers as Thornbridge on handpump. I have a bottle of their Black IPA put aside for MOTD later...

Flightpath said:

kle4 said:

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.

Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!

"Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!"

Ha! You've played rugby Dr Fox!

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589497473053413376

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Hope not Hate deserve everything they get

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589497473053413376

Did Opinium get their sample from the one rejected by the BBC?

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589498724746944513

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpath said:

Re Harry Cole and craft beer - if it is craft beer and he likes it then Ed has just lost the CAMRA vote. I can't believe he could be so simple as to stumble into such a minefield of a controversial subject.

Minefield neatly summarised here!

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2013/jun/13/craft-beer-guide-beginners.

Good beer is good beer; but hard to find such excellent craft beers as Thornbridge on handpump. I have a bottle of their Black IPA put aside for MOTD later...

The Guardian is such a wanky website.

I'm thinking of changing my pb name to Boring Brown Bitter.

weejonnie said:

MP_SE said:

weejonnie said:

Sleazy Broken UKIP on the slide. Oh wait . . .

On a slightly more important note - if UKIP are being squeezed in the marginals then where is their vote going to appear?

If this trend continues UKIP will be in low single digits...

Maybe it is being stacked in ultra safe seats where it will make no difference.

Do you mean low single-digit %ge of vote or low single digit number of seats.? They are reportedly concentrating their resources on 10 seats - but presumably this £1.3 million Express delivery means they can expand their horizons (as expenditure in each seat is limited).

It may be that the UKIP squeeze is blue kippers voting Tory in the marginals as, I think, the swing to Labour is less there than elsewhere.

Anyway, we should know before midnight on the 7th.

weejonnie said:

MP_SE said:

weejonnie said:

Sleazy Broken UKIP on the slide. Oh wait . . .

On a slightly more important note - if UKIP are being squeezed in the marginals then where is their vote going to appear?

If this trend continues UKIP will be in low single digits...

Maybe it is being stacked in ultra safe seats where it will make no difference.

Do you mean low single-digit %ge of vote or low single digit number of seats.? They are reportedly concentrating their resources on 10 seats - but presumably this £1.3 million Express delivery means they can expand their horizons (as expenditure in each seat is limited).

It may be that the UKIP squeeze is blue kippers voting Tory in the marginals as, I think, the swing to Labour is less there than elsewhere.

Anyway, we should know before midnight on the 7th.

Sorry for the confusion. I was being sarcastic. My sarcasm does not translate well in face to face conversations so I stand no chance over the internet lol. The last few polls have shown either no change or a slight uptick for the UKIP vote which is a good sign *fingers crossed*.

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Providing the councillor was not in fear for his safety he has played right into HnH's hands and has slipped up. A group made up of soap dodgers can afford to behave like they are. Whilst anyone who intends to hold down a half decent job has to be on their best behaviour.

roserees64 said:

A motivational poll for Labour activists! A good poll at this stage in the proceedings as it underlines the need for persistent groundwork.However the caveat is the doubt about upticks for Libs and the Kippers. Predictions give 34/34 as the most likely true picture in terms of mathematical probability.

Oh well!
Best to ignore Guardian polls! Lol

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589498505674240000

I am confident that Labour are ready to form 'a' government - this is what worries me. It would be a government that according to leaks to The Times would politicise the Civil Service.

I saw that in the Times, politicise the civil service and gather more power for number 10. Two awful propositions.

philiph said:

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589498505674240000

I am confident that Labour are ready to form 'a' government - this is what worries me. It would be a government that according to leaks to The Times would politicise the Civil Service.

I saw that in the Times, politicise the civil service and gather more power for number 10. Two awful propositions.

What was the Times story?

kle4 said:

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

Part of a proud tradition in Australian politics. Bob Hawke held the world yard of ale record, and was still sculling beers well into his eighties..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5mBShX9fdU

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Hope not Hate deserve everything they get

That seems a little harsh. I wouldn't take a swing at - for example - a Socialist Worker Party activist no matter how objectionable they were.

Whilst I agree with you on the idiocy of taking a swing at anyone, Hope Not Hate are far worse than any Socialist Workers I ever met. The latter are honest in their beliefs whilst the former are just a dishonest propaganda tool. Still no excuse to hit one though.

WelshBertie said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpath said:

kle4 said:

JohnO said:

Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.

Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.

PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!

Will we see this in Britain though?

Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857

it would make a better alternative to the debates. Plaid Cymru would probably win.

Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!

I must disagree. Leanne Wood is, as she is always keen to point out, from the Rhondda. And as such, would trounce Farage in a pint drinking contest, hell...even a boatrace should she feel like it. Us Rhondda folk take our quaffing abilities seriously.

Hmm. Don't know about that. I drank a few of your boys under the table when I worked the bars at Cardiff University back in the 80s. Mind you your rugby team was doing poorly then as well so maybe the two were linked. Maybe the 80s Valley Boys had just gone soft for a while :-)

weejonnie said:

isam said:

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Hope not Hate deserve everything they get

These 72 year olds - well they can wield a mean Zimmer frame.

Normally I would expect the police to take details and release on bail. Why not this time? Is it just because he is a UKIP supporter?

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Hope not Hate deserve everything they get

That seems a little harsh. I wouldn't take a swing at - for example - a Socialist Worker Party activist no matter how objectionable they were.

72yr old assailant! Assault now days probably equals a poke with a walking stick

HnH are a vile organisation. If UKIP disappeared they will no doubt turn their attention to the Tories.

No comment:

https://twitter.com/lowles_nick/status/589500261871267840

No ComRes tonight people.

foxinsoxuk said:

Tony_M said:

"Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!"

Ha! You've played rugby Dr Fox!

I did win a 3 legged pubcrawl round 8 Youngs pubs when at med school with the ladies boat club captain. 8 pints and 8 halves in 24 minutes over a one mile course. Male pride being what it is; I insisted on doing all the pints! My partner was Welsh and carried on drinking at the end...

......................................................................

It's all coming out tonight ....

And that night too by the sound of it ....

Grandiose said:

weejonnie said:

weejonnie said:

isam said:

volcanopete said:

Ukip councillor arrested for alleged assault in Ukip target seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066

Hope not Hate deserve everything they get

These 72 year olds - well they can wield a mean Zimmer frame.

Normally I would expect the police to take details and release on bail. Why not this time? Is it just because he is a UKIP supporter?

I very much doubt they're holding a 72-year-old councillor in custody over an assault charge...

Well a 72 year old is in custody - the inference is that he is the councillor. RTFA

trublue said:

MarqueeMark said:

That gets to the heart of this election - where are Labour making the case for change? They just aren't. You look at the employment numbers this week and think - why would you take the risk of serial feck-ups Labour?

The Labour campaign just seems to be banking on the hatred of the Tories, and there's still a lot of it out there judging by some of the comments on social media sites. We're almost certainly not winning a majority of any kind, the only question is can we get enough seats to stop EM from becoming PM? Even after the Labour rout in Scotland, it's still rated about a 50/50 chance who stays at/goes to number 10. That's pretty disappointing to say the least, and shows what kind of mountain we needed to climb to ever have a chance of winning a majority in the first place.

Given that 20% of the vote at the last election was cast by postal vote, and more than 34% up North, we have to remember that voting has already started. So if the Conservative campaign is right and we do get a late swing it is not going to have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the election. We need these polls to start showing big leads consistently now as the votes to start going out in the mail.

I wouldn't be too worried about the Social Media websites - that's the chateratti of Islington speaking - the champagne socialists, not the Traditional Labour supporters.

RobD said:

philiph said:

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589498505674240000

I am confident that Labour are ready to form 'a' government - this is what worries me. It would be a government that according to leaks to The Times would politicise the Civil Service.

I saw that in the Times, politicise the civil service and gather more power for number 10. Two awful propositions.

What was the Times story?

Amongst other things we apparently need an emergency budget (50p tax and fek the non-doms off), but the Treasury would be effectively controlled by No10 (along with everybody else) via ahem, 'transparency'.

RobD said:

philiph said:

RobD said:

philiph said:

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/589498505674240000

I am confident that Labour are ready to form 'a' government - this is what worries me. It would be a government that according to leaks to The Times would politicise the Civil Service.

I saw that in the Times, politicise the civil service and gather more power for number 10. Two awful propositions.

What was the Times story?

About Miliband preparing for government.

Oh, I meant the specifics. I'm to cheap to pay for it

And I'm to antiquated to recollect detail!

It was expanding those themes as his intention to make a secure bunker for himself, unassailable to human intervention or common sense.

foxinsoxuk said:

Tony_M said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Tony_M said:

"Bollocks. Farage is a zulu warrior!"

Ha! You've played rugby Dr Fox!

I did win a 3 legged pubcrawl round 8 Youngs pubs when at med school with the ladies boat club captain. 8 pints and 8 halves in 24 minutes over a one mile course. Male pride being what it is; I insisted on doing all the pints! My partner was Welsh and carried on drinking at the end...

Impressive!

Was never too good myself at large quantities of ale. I did however manage a 17 minute optic run, (waiting for a cab to take us to the next pub) the day we won the World Cup. Jonny made me very, very poorly that day...

I did feel a bit rough that night; and no way that I could manage it now.

Med schools have suppressed such beery activities now. Its political correctness gone sane!

Perhaps downing a pint in under ten could become one of the point scoring criteria in Farages Australian style points system. It may not keep out the Poles or Czechs, but may keep out some of the riff raff!



Doubt it. They'll just come down the M6 ;-)

SquareRoot said:

Ed cannot even eat a bacon buttie properly, never mind hold a pint correct or even down it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4YvR22delc

Queen Anne is dead, too.

Based on this poll on a uniform swing,Labour will gain 40 seats from the Tories and 8 from the Libs and if they lose 30 to the SNP,they will still end up with 276.

SMukesh said:

Based on this poll on a uniform swing,Labour will gain 40 seats from the Tories and 8 from the Libs and if they lose 30 to the SNP,they will still end up with 276.

Do you really believe that SLAB will have 13 seats!

LOL

No sign of Opinium on the Guardian website yet