politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4%

The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate.
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I don't think Labour can hit the 35% on their manifesto as a platform, but the Tories should be able to get enough in the centre to be the largest party. Dave even brought back his Big Society crap for good measure, so clearly someone in the party is thinking clearly enough to see that the Tories need to offer a positive vision for the future of the nation. Labour's strategists seem to have lost their heads with the manifesto, any talk of policies being held back is just wishful thinking, the first question will be "why wasn't this in the manifesto, is it a policy or an aspiration", "well if it is a real policy then why not put it in the manifesto" ad nauseam.
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
"Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!"
Thought it was worth flagging up. You have to love the UK- although your final sentence is a bit worrying.
Betting Post
Two, or possibly three, tips included in my look at an intriguing race tomorrow:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/bahrain-pre-race.html
Footage has emerged of the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, knocking back a large glass of beer in only seven seconds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32364857
**** Opens up Popcorn ****
Tis quite a relief to hear that a cabinet minister has been deployed to fend off the red hordes in such a hyper marginal. Just as well he wasn't needed elsewhere.
On a slightly more important note - if UKIP are being squeezed in the marginals then where is their vote going to appear?
...as ever we need more polling
Damn it man, will nothing satisfy you! Think of the poor pollsters, working themselves to death for this election cycle.
Maybe it is being stacked in ultra safe seats where it will make no difference.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/589036702838214656
"The day the polls turned"
(I posted as "Alan" or "Alan J" back in 2005)
It is not completely ridiculous, and Shadsy still has it as 25/1 I think.
It may be that the UKIP squeeze is blue kippers voting Tory in the marginals as, I think, the swing to Labour is less there than elsewhere.
Anyway, we should know before midnight on the 7th.
always best to ignore polls you don't like.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2013/jun/13/craft-beer-guide-beginners.
Good beer is good beer; but hard to find such excellent craft beers as Thornbridge on handpump. I have a bottle of their Black IPA put aside for MOTD later...
A shame there's a real poll on May 7th. It kinda spoils all the fun.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32368066
Ha! You've played rugby Dr Fox!
In truth (honest) I have to watch what I say as beyond 3 these days is a bit much. But real ale. I am not so sure about 'craft'. Best to play safe in an election year.
Providing the councillor was not in fear for his safety he has played right into HnH's hands and has slipped up. A group made up of soap dodgers can afford to behave like they are. Whilst anyone who intends to hold down a half decent job has to be on their best behaviour.
Who will end up as PM?
Cameron 46
Miliband 27
Who will be largest party?
Con 52
Lab 33
Best to ignore Guardian polls! Lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5mBShX9fdU
I was looking at Lord A's Doncaster North polling earlier on today and the Lab vote is up and UKIP's increase is at the expense of the Tories and Lib Dems. Which may suggest UKIP piles on votes in safe seats where people can afford to vote for them and in Lib/Lab/Con marginals they get squeezed.
This answer is straight out of PB
Henry Winter (@henrywinter)
18/04/2015 19:44
Van Gaal on whether #cfc will now win the league: "Yes. I said it a month ago."
Given that 20% of the vote at the last election was cast by postal vote, and more than 34% up North, we have to remember that voting has already started. So if the Conservative campaign is right and we do get a late swing it is not going to have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the election. We need these polls to start showing big leads consistently now as the votes to start going out in the mail.
No comment:
https://twitter.com/lowles_nick/status/589500261871267840
I did win a 3 legged pubcrawl round 8 Youngs pubs when at med school with the ladies boat club captain. 8 pints and 8 halves in 24 minutes over a one mile course. Male pride being what it is; I insisted on doing all the pints! My partner was Welsh and carried on drinking at the end...
"out to be utter bollocks"
......................................................................
It's all coming out tonight ....
And that night too by the sound of it ....
Impressive!
Was never too good myself at large quantities of ale. I did however manage a 17 minute optic run, (waiting for a cab to take us to the next pub) the day we won the World Cup. Jonny made me very, very poorly that day...
Was never too good myself at large quantities of ale. I did however manage a 17 minute optic run, (waiting for a cab to take us to the next pub) the day we won the World Cup. Jonny made me very, very poorly that day...
I did feel a bit rough that night; and no way that I could manage it now.
Med schools have suppressed such beery activities now. Its political correctness gone sane!
Perhaps downing a pint in under ten could become one of the point scoring criteria in Farages Australian style points system. It may not keep out the Poles or Czechs, but may keep out some of the riff raff!
It was expanding those themes as his intention to make a secure bunker for himself, unassailable to human intervention or common sense.
They're standing 8 candidates this time compared to 338 in 2010: Boston, Braintree, Charnwood, Dagenham, Hornchurch, Kingswood, Old Bexley, Rotherham.
Med schools have suppressed such beery activities now. Its political correctness gone sane!
Perhaps downing a pint in under ten could become one of the point scoring criteria in Farages Australian style points system. It may not keep out the Poles or Czechs, but may keep out some of the riff raff!
Doubt it. They'll just come down the M6 ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4YvR22delc
LOL
I live with two med students. I encourage them to drink. I'm playing the long game, because "an alcoholic is a man who drinks more than his doctor".