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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

Meanwhile I like this new SPIN market which I suggested to the firm after someone posted the idea on a previous thread. Quite hard to think through the permutations given that 1 is a given.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015
    First, Keith Vaz poster spotted today (apart from the ones outside his office) and one for Edward Garnier too.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    GIN says theres also a ComRes?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    What a beautiful day.

    If anything, Con seats and Lab PM are understated here, because the Lib Dems and DUP will be significantly smaller than the SNP on yesterday's polling.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    On topic: quantum mechanics is easier.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Bit concerned that the spread on LDs has dropped by 2.5 over last 2 days.
    What does OGH think?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    Dair said:

    foxinsoxuk said:


    An opposition or private members bill on EVFEL would be very interesting in your scenario. Would the Nationslists vote against National autonomy for the English? How many Labour in England would either vote with the Conservatives or abstain.

    The stress on a Lab/SNP govt would either tear the govt apart or neuter the Nats.

    While Labour carry 26 out of 40 seats in Wales (and probably 28-30 after the election, the party will not vote for EV4EL. If it is almost impossible for them to get a majority without Scotland, without Wales they are out of majority government forever.
    I am not so sure; particularly if the bill was drafted well. A lot of English Labour would be in a quandry.

    Off to the footy in the glorious sunshine now. "Come on Leicester boys! Make some frigging noise!"
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Has Ed.told us how he will control immigration yet..or is he just farting in a hurricane as usual..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @sarissa "How about a Stargate X-Files or Farscape Walking Dead series?"
    Brilliant!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    *separate.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    Yes but at least the productivity per worker may look better..... Just like France.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    My ARSE will only be coming on PB on 6 more occasions before polling day including the eve of poll SUPER ARSE.

    A pall will descend on PB after 7th May .... will you have withdrawal symptoms?

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    timmo said:

    Bit concerned that the spread on LDs has dropped by 2.5 over last 2 days.
    What does OGH think?

    That's been driven by the Ashcroft polling but there were no shocks.

    Sometimes people seem to think that there are many more seats in Scotland than there actually are. There are just 59 and most people were assuming that LAB had lost three quarters already. Now maybe it is nine-tenths.

    The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.

    I'm hoping that SPIN will be doing an article for us and the spread trading.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    My ARSE will only be coming on PB on 6 more occasions before polling day including the eve of poll SUPER ARSE.

    A pall will descend on PB after 7th May .... will you have withdrawal symptoms?

    Everybody who withdraws from your ARSE will have symptoms of some kind.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...

    @Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My post on the SNP seats:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-snp-battleground-in-april-2015.html
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...

    @Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG

    Is that you being called a Cybernat?

    Should we be making Police Scotland aware of your activities?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.

    Compared to Miliband, Obama is a Tory.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats?
    If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive?
    For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284?
    For Cameron is it 307+ ?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats?
    If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive?
    For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284?
    For Cameron is it 307+ ?

    Dunno about Dave.

    For Ed it will be "Whatever Nicola says".
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015
    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    GIN says theres also a ComRes?

    John Rentoul told me that there isn't a ComRes in the IoS tomorrow. So it could be that there's one in the Mail on Sunday but I don't know.

    My ARSE will only be coming on PB on 6 more occasions before polling day including the eve of poll SUPER ARSE.

    A pall will descend on PB after 7th May .... will you have withdrawal symptoms?

    Everybody who withdraws from your ARSE will have symptoms of some kind.

    The bald truth is that it's no wonder with such wisdom you are little short of a living god around these parts.

    And around my parts too ....





  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    MikeSmithson said:

    timmo said:

    Bit concerned that the spread on LDs has dropped by 2.5 over last 2 days.
    What does OGH think?

    That's been driven by the Ashcroft polling but there were no shocks.

    Sometimes people seem to think that there are many more seats in Scotland than there actually are. There are just 59 and most people were assuming that LAB had lost three quarters already. Now maybe it is nine-tenths.

    The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.

    I'm hoping that SPIN will be doing an article for us and the spread trading.

    That's right, and it's the English LAB /CON and three-way battles that we can predict with the least certainty - firstly because they seem, according to Ashcroft, to diverge widely from UNS, but also because there are so many of them. By contrast we can predict to within, say, 5 seats what will happen to the Lib Dems nationally with a fairly good level of confidence; and Scotland is well-polled.

    It would be useful to see some models break down their seat projections in terms of regions and battlefields (LAB safe seats, CON safe seats, two-way LAB-CON marginals, etc)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    F1: all my first thought bets have rubbish odds. Checking something, only the new and improved [bah!] official F1 site doesn't seem to have last year's qualifying times. One is not impressed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats?
    If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive?
    For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284?
    For Cameron is it 307+ ?

    I don't think either survive not becoming PM unless Parliament is so hung that a second election soon seems unavoidable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,506
    antifrank said:

    My post on the SNP seats:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-snp-battleground-in-april-2015.html

    Most interesting, thanks!

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,208
    Scott_P said:

    Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...

    @Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG

    I think I'll go to the Renfrewshire counts this year.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Double whammy
    I'm reminded of the scene in Dr Strangelove where Maj Matt 'King' Kong (Miliband), sits astride two thermo-nuclear bombs on a B52 with the graffiti 'Hi John' (Sturgeon) and 'Hello There' (Salmond).
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    MaxPB said:

    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
    Blame Clinton/Republican welfare reforms. But, the direction is what is important.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    MaxPB said:

    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
    You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Only thick tea party-ers rant on about Obama being a socialist.

    Obama is not proposing to cripple the US jobs market by adding on a mass of labour laws.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    A second election in 2015 could be very interesting...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    F1: a lot of waffle and no bet:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying.html

    I think the race/qualifying is set up intriguingly but there's little value that I saw.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    antifrank said:

    My post on the SNP seats:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-snp-battleground-in-april-2015.html

    I have staked plenty yesterday on the SNP in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at 1/2. Nice to see reassurance about this bet. But, I think some of the Labour prices between 5/1 and 8/1 were such good longshot bets that they were of value, too.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2015
    @Scott_P

    '@Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG'

    Great turnout,11 Labour activists.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.

    Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    Indigo said:

    FPT

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.

    Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
    Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    EPG said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.

    Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
    Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
    If it makes you happy to believe that, be my guest :) How many votes do Labour need to p155 off to lose Heywood and Middleton again ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.

    Crossover soon.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    How things change.

    David Cameron demanding at PMQs the the Brown government take action against Haringey council over the Baby P scandal:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK9jtVkc1rE

    Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?

    Perhaps he didn't study Edmund Burke on that PPE course.

    'All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.'

    Alongside Cameron and nodding away vigourously is Theresa May, who it seems thinks that the South Yorkshire Police are 'fit for purpose'.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    john_zims said:



    Great turnout,11 Labour activists.

    Labour's chief election strategist.

    On a Saturday.

    Has a turnout of eleven.

    Sure, SLAB can turn it round...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    Indigo said:

    EPG said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.

    Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
    Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
    If it makes you happy to believe that, be my guest :) How many votes do Labour need to p155 off to lose Heywood and Middleton again ?
    If Ukip get back in the high teens nationally and turnout drops by 20 points from 2010, then Labour have a very small margin of error there, yes I agree!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    surbiton said:

    So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.

    Crossover soon.

    I thought you would be out canvassing today.

    If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    another_richard said:

    surbiton said:

    So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.

    Crossover soon.

    I thought you would be out canvassing today.

    If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
    I have been out and about in Tooting. Though activity is quite sedate. Big swing expected to Labour.

    I received my ballot paper and I have already voted LABOUR. We are expecting Labour 18 - 20% here in K&S.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    1. Cameron being miles ahead in the charts didn't seem to do the Conservatives much good.
    2. Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished. The parties seem to have realised that posters are a waste of time and money.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    I thought maybe Angus Reid would return to the UK polling arena for the general election but evidently not. Maybe they're busy with the Canadian election which is due to be held in October.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,937
    BBC Website is consistently showing pictures of Milliband as their lead photo.

    I've complained to the BBC again. They'll send me some polite response again. Is there actually any avenue for real complaint?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    I am far from convinced that Obama is more like Miliband than Cameron... but a good point about inactivity has already been made.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Omnium
    The Electoral Commission?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    surbiton said:

    So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.

    Crossover soon.

    I thought you would be out canvassing today.

    If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
    I have been out and about in Tooting. Though activity is quite sedate. Big swing expected to Labour.

    I received my ballot paper and I have already voted LABOUR. We are expecting Labour 18 - 20% here in K&S.
    I expect Labour to win Tooting by well over 5000.

    You'd be better off spending your time in Croydon Central.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
    You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
    Hopefully that essay would be aimed at others, I already use employment in my analysis instead of unemployment. It is much, much harder to manipulate absolute employment figures of the working age population than unemployment figures.

    Over here if the government hadn't spent so much effort into getting people off long term benefits and into the jobs market the unemployment rate would be close to 4%. I think one of the greatest achievements of this lot has been to get low skilled people back into the workplace rather than on benefits. Hopefully workplace training will kick in and these lower skilled people will be able to increase their productivity and wages.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    another_richard said:

    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    surbiton said:

    So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.

    Crossover soon.

    I thought you would be out canvassing today.

    If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
    I have been out and about in Tooting. Though activity is quite sedate. Big swing expected to Labour.

    I received my ballot paper and I have already voted LABOUR. We are expecting Labour 18 - 20% here in K&S.
    I expect Labour to win Tooting by well over 5000.

    You'd be better off spending your time in Croydon Central.

    Yes - I'm surprised there's much need for activity in Tooting - in the current state of the polls it should be safe. Unless Labour know something different.... :)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    MikeSmithson said:



    The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.

    I think a decisive battleground might well be the North-West where there are no less than thirteen vulnerable Conservative constituencies:

    Blackppol N
    Bury N
    Carlisle
    Chester
    Crewe
    Lancaster
    Morecambe
    Pendle
    Rossendale
    South Ribble
    Warrington S
    Weaver Vale
    Wirral W

    For all the excitement about Scotland the election will be decided where it always is - middle sized towns with names reminiscent of English lower division football.

    There is quite a cluster of marginals around Derby-Nottingham as well:

    Amber Valley
    Broxtowe
    Erewash
    Sherwood

    Plus High Peak, Lincoln and Northampton S elsewhere in the East Midlands - Corby already being a Labour byelection gain.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    EPG said:

    Financier said:

    Allister Heath's straight talking:

    "What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

    It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
    Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
    You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
    Hopefully that essay would be aimed at others, I already use employment in my analysis instead of unemployment. It is much, much harder to manipulate absolute employment figures of the working age population than unemployment figures.

    As I remember the old Eastern Bloc communist countries were able to create very good employment figures.

    In fact its easy to do so for governments if they're willing to spend money they don't have.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited April 2015
    Sudden unusual movement on Betfair Most Seats.

    Con had been steady at 1.52/1.54.

    Con was then matched out at 1.57.

    Within a minute or two Con was back to 1.51/1.52

    Now 1.51/1.56 - very unusually wide spread.

    What is going on? Has someone got the leak of a poll?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Someone has just taken 1.51.

    Looks as if something is going on.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    calum said:

    If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html

    Dont know why you would self damage your brain reading this Calum. I am just back from Aberdeen and if the response I got on the doors and on the streets is anything to go by I have detected something else at work and that is contempt and hatred for the Labour Party especially amongst women. I don't think I have come across such loathing for the Labour Party before. There was a time I would have said that Ann Begg was safe in Aberdeen South but that is no longer the case, I think she is gone and it will be women that will nail her.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Lab matched at 3 - moved way out.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Now:

    Con 1.5/1.56
    Lab 2.8/3.0

    Massive spreads!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Could someone explain in English what these spread changes imply?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    calum said:

    If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html

    Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    another_richard said:

    How things change.

    David Cameron demanding at PMQs the the Brown government take action against Haringey council over the Baby P scandal:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK9jtVkc1rE

    Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?

    Perhaps he didn't study Edmund Burke on that PPE course.

    'All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.'

    Alongside Cameron and nodding away vigourously is Theresa May, who it seems thinks that the South Yorkshire Police are 'fit for purpose'.

    Joanna Simons the head of the council has gone. I doubt that anyone previously involved in child care is still around.
    The review into the affair published by the Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children Board said Oxfordshire’s 'organisational response was weak and lacked overview', and it was t'he efforts of junior staff which detected the pattern of group child sexual exploitation'. But the report then stated that Oxfordshire now has a 'nationally renowned' level of expertise in approaching multi-agency CSE investigations.

    A specialist team, involving Thames Valley Police and local health services, called Kingfisher, was set up in 2012 to oversee the issue in the county.
    The OSCB issued a series of 13 recommendations and 60 learning points for agencies and professionals.

    Your cheap nasty slur is miserable and pathetic.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31715345
    The OCSB pointed out these events occurred berween 2005 and 2010 (under a Labour govt).

    There is an IPCC investigstion into S Yorks Police.
    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/twenty-new-complaints-about-south-yorkshire-police-officers-over-rotherham-scandal-1-7083729

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    edited April 2015
    Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

    I make the 'gap' a large 35% in my analysis.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html

    Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
    Ha ha ha - you should gird your loins and read the Mirror.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/irn-bru-lady-nicola-sturgeon-not-5504150
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited April 2015
    So no ComRes/IOS onlibne poll (even though it's due this weekend?) but maybe a ComRes/MoS phone poll?

    And some unusual movements taking place on the Spreads?

    Hmmmmmm...
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    She is just playing the game, malcolm. You, of all people, must know this.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Everyone seems to be relying on Ashcroft to make their winnings. I'm not sure I would.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    edited April 2015
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html

    Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
    The Daily Fail lost the plot some time ago.

    Good for advertising revenue mind.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589451512184725504
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    Best in all these polls to check the numbers before turnout weightings applied. In these seats anyone with a modicum of interest in voting will be got out by the party machines.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    MikeL said:

    Sudden unusual movement on Betfair Most Seats.

    Con had been steady at 1.52/1.54.

    Con was then matched out at 1.57.

    Within a minute or two Con was back to 1.51/1.52

    Now 1.51/1.56 - very unusually wide spread.

    What is going on? Has someone got the leak of a poll?

    Dunno, I'm not a 2-1 must great value Lab most seats man now to be honest though. I know that view differs from alot of bettors but with the Tories eating their allies tail in the SW and SLAB's woes in Scotland I think 2-1 is about right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    Reading West to go close I think.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589451512184725504

    Have we heard about ComRes/MoS?

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Flightpath said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Everyone seems to be relying on Ashcroft to make their winnings. I'm not sure I would.
    Quickest way to the poor house.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    The scribe at BF can't spell, and you'd have thought they might show an understanding of how the PMship may well change hands later in the year without an election. What with all the talk of a well-hung parlyameant and stuff.

    Meanwhile, wise words from two commenters here:
    frpenkridge said:

    Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished.

    This is true. For months in the run-up to the indyref the YESsers had their posters everywhere and you saw hardly any posters for NO, and they still got their urruses kucked.
    Indigo said:

    Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament.

    Agreed.
    It annoys me so much that the LAB leadership didn't start this one off. They could have said "We need to improve the Union" and actually proposed something concrete. They could have dominated the debate. What a bunch of wimps! (And I'm not being partisan, btw: I'm Labour.)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    edited April 2015
    http://electionsetc.com/ has the EdM/Lab seats gap at 26% now.

    35% may have been overcooking it, but it is there and substantial.

    Also Con, LD, DUP... dunno - the LDs may switch sides if thats the case...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Cameron dog whistles for another coalition: https://mobile.twitter.com/JonnyDymond/status/589432603217899520
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    nigel4england said:

    Flightpath said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Everyone seems to be relying on Ashcroft to make their winnings. I'm not sure I would.
    Quickest way to the poor house.
    Betting on Ashcroft polls, or against them?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    Reading West to go close I think.
    Both Milton Keynes and Reading have a sizable ethnic minority population,especially Reading which has a good sized Pakistani population.

    Hastings to go Lab I think. Ashcroft showed a Lab lead and Labour run the council there and they are not unpopular.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    MikeL said:

    Now:

    Con 1.5/1.56
    Lab 2.8/3.0

    Massive spreads!

    I like massive spreads me: oooh aar misses.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Billy Bragg ‏@billybragg 16m16 minutes ago
    Surely this is the offer that tips the scales in favour of Labour?
    Embedded image permalink

    Katie Hopkins on ED Milliband " I will leave the country if this man becomes PM "
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589451512184725504

    Making it amusing if both show the exact same scores (or same shift in scores). That would be on par with the sort of thing we've seen this far I'd say.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited April 2015
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    Best in all these polls to check the numbers before turnout weightings applied. In these seats anyone with a modicum of interest in voting will be got out by the party machines.
    I remember the same thing being posted on here before - someone then went and checked turnout in 2010 in marginal seats and found it was no higher than other seats.

    Most marginal seats in 2010:

    Hampstead & Kilburn - turnout 66%
    Hendon - turnout 59%
    Warwickshire North - turnout 67%
    Bolton West - turnout 67%

    Average turnout in England was 66%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Pong said:

    nigel4england said:

    Flightpath said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Everyone seems to be relying on Ashcroft to make their winnings. I'm not sure I would.
    Quickest way to the poor house.
    Betting on Ashcroft polls, or against them?
    No, the question is

    Betting on Question 1 of the Ashcroft or against Question 2 ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    John_N said:


    Meanwhile, wise words from two commenters here:

    frpenkridge said:

    Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished.

    This is true. For months in the run-up to the indyref the YESsers had their posters everywhere and you saw hardly any posters for NO, and they still got their urruses kucked.
    We used to reckon the Tories were still ahead of the LibDems unless the ratio of LibDem/Tory posters got above 40:1.....

  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    kle4 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589451512184725504

    Making it amusing if both show the exact same scores (or same shift in scores). That would be on par with the sort of thing we've seen this far I'd say.
    Down with this sort of thing.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Drove into Totley today (Deepest Clegg territory) , not a single yellow diamond anywhere
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Dair said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats?
    If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive?
    For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284?
    For Cameron is it 307+ ?

    Dunno about Dave.

    For Ed it will be "Whatever Nicola says".
    "Nigel? - I need your 10 seats urgently? or it;'s my job"
    "What's your best offer?"
    "A referendum in 2017"
    "2015 it is"
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/ has the EdM/Lab seats gap at 26% now.

    35% may have been overcooking it, but it is there and substantial.

    Also Con, LD, DUP... dunno - the LDs may switch sides if thats the case...

    Fisher's model is based on a theory that I used to espouse but which got smashed at GE10 - that the polls always over state Labour.

    There have only been 2 data-points since polling was reformed - one backs this assertion up the other doesn't.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    So how many polls are we expecting tonight, is it three? Do we have an idea of the release time?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    So how many polls are we expecting tonight, is it three? Do we have an idea of the release time?

    Yes

  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    GIN1138 said:

    So no ComRes/IOS onlibne poll (even though it's due this weekend?) but maybe a ComRes/MoS phone poll?

    And some unusual movements taking place on the Spreads?

    Hmmmmmm...

    Yeah thats what mike said earlier.

    The before-after debate issue's a red herring imho. doubt it'll make the blindest but if the YG shows its usual narrow churn it'll keep labour happy.

    more impt issues could be the great weather, that the remaining private schools are coming back from hols this weekend & the key imho to look at differences between phone vs online pollsters. I continue of the opinion that online polls are tosh
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    So how many polls are we expecting tonight, is it three? Do we have an idea of the release time?

    Yes

    Thanks. I never know how to interpret the market movements mentioned down thread, as I don't have a sense of the liquidity in the market (too lazy to open it up!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/ has the EdM/Lab seats gap at 26% now.

    35% may have been overcooking it, but it is there and substantial.

    Also Con, LD, DUP... dunno - the LDs may switch sides if thats the case...

    Fisher's model is based on a theory that I used to espouse but which got smashed at GE10 - that the polls always over state Labour.

    There have only been 2 data-points since polling was reformed - one backs this assertion up the other doesn't.

    I've got his model down as bearish Labour, Mike. But still it identified EdM PM as a good bet. So I've used it ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk for my analysis of the Ed PM bet.
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