politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM
Meanwhile I like this new SPIN market which I suggested to the firm after someone posted the idea on a previous thread. Quite hard to think through the permutations given that 1 is a given.
If anything, Con seats and Lab PM are understated here, because the Lib Dems and DUP will be significantly smaller than the SNP on yesterday's polling.
An opposition or private members bill on EVFEL would be very interesting in your scenario. Would the Nationslists vote against National autonomy for the English? How many Labour in England would either vote with the Conservatives or abstain.
The stress on a Lab/SNP govt would either tear the govt apart or neuter the Nats.
While Labour carry 26 out of 40 seats in Wales (and probably 28-30 after the election, the party will not vote for EV4EL. If it is almost impossible for them to get a majority without Scotland, without Wales they are out of majority government forever.
I am not so sure; particularly if the bill was drafted well. A lot of English Labour would be in a quandry.
Off to the footy in the glorious sunshine now. "Come on Leicester boys! Make some frigging noise!"
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
Bit concerned that the spread on LDs has dropped by 2.5 over last 2 days. What does OGH think?
That's been driven by the Ashcroft polling but there were no shocks.
Sometimes people seem to think that there are many more seats in Scotland than there actually are. There are just 59 and most people were assuming that LAB had lost three quarters already. Now maybe it is nine-tenths.
The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.
I'm hoping that SPIN will be doing an article for us and the spread trading.
Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...
Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats? If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive? For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284? For Cameron is it 307+ ?
What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats? If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive? For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284? For Cameron is it 307+ ?
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
Bit concerned that the spread on LDs has dropped by 2.5 over last 2 days. What does OGH think?
That's been driven by the Ashcroft polling but there were no shocks.
Sometimes people seem to think that there are many more seats in Scotland than there actually are. There are just 59 and most people were assuming that LAB had lost three quarters already. Now maybe it is nine-tenths.
The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.
I'm hoping that SPIN will be doing an article for us and the spread trading.
That's right, and it's the English LAB /CON and three-way battles that we can predict with the least certainty - firstly because they seem, according to Ashcroft, to diverge widely from UNS, but also because there are so many of them. By contrast we can predict to within, say, 5 seats what will happen to the Lib Dems nationally with a fairly good level of confidence; and Scotland is well-polled.
It would be useful to see some models break down their seat projections in terms of regions and battlefields (LAB safe seats, CON safe seats, two-way LAB-CON marginals, etc)
F1: all my first thought bets have rubbish odds. Checking something, only the new and improved [bah!] official F1 site doesn't seem to have last year's qualifying times. One is not impressed.
What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats? If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive? For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284? For Cameron is it 307+ ?
I don't think either survive not becoming PM unless Parliament is so hung that a second election soon seems unavoidable.
Excellent news for Scottish wildlife fans. If you want to see some very rare and exotic creatures, possibly for the last time, but Edinburgh is too far away, you can head for Paisley instead...
Double whammy I'm reminded of the scene in Dr Strangelove where Maj Matt 'King' Kong (Miliband), sits astride two thermo-nuclear bombs on a B52 with the graffiti 'Hi John' (Sturgeon) and 'Hello There' (Salmond).
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
Blame Clinton/Republican welfare reforms. But, the direction is what is important.
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
I have staked plenty yesterday on the SNP in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at 1/2. Nice to see reassurance about this bet. But, I think some of the Labour prices between 5/1 and 8/1 were such good longshot bets that they were of value, too.
Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.
Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.
Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.
Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
If it makes you happy to believe that, be my guest How many votes do Labour need to p155 off to lose Heywood and Middleton again ?
Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?
Perhaps he didn't study Edmund Burke on that PPE course.
'All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.'
Alongside Cameron and nodding away vigourously is Theresa May, who it seems thinks that the South Yorkshire Police are 'fit for purpose'.
Plus every time the government passed an English bill rejected by an English majority (but passed by MPs who due to devolution own constituencies aren't affected) it will have the press screaming blue murder.
Watch all those old Labour patriotic voters ( and any remaining WVC types that haven't left already) peel off to join the kippers as well, Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament. A fair few of those Northern constituencies where the kippers are going to come second might get rapidly untenable for Labour.
Or maybe they'll just be second-place next time too, or lower.
If it makes you happy to believe that, be my guest How many votes do Labour need to p155 off to lose Heywood and Middleton again ?
If Ukip get back in the high teens nationally and turnout drops by 20 points from 2010, then Labour have a very small margin of error there, yes I agree!
1. Cameron being miles ahead in the charts didn't seem to do the Conservatives much good. 2. Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished. The parties seem to have realised that posters are a waste of time and money.
I thought maybe Angus Reid would return to the UK polling arena for the general election but evidently not. Maybe they're busy with the Canadian election which is due to be held in October.
If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
Hopefully that essay would be aimed at others, I already use employment in my analysis instead of unemployment. It is much, much harder to manipulate absolute employment figures of the working age population than unemployment figures.
Over here if the government hadn't spent so much effort into getting people off long term benefits and into the jobs market the unemployment rate would be close to 4%. I think one of the greatest achievements of this lot has been to get low skilled people back into the workplace rather than on benefits. Hopefully workplace training will kick in and these lower skilled people will be able to increase their productivity and wages.
So clearly Edward Samuel Miliband has caught up with Cameron as next PM. He was a way behind only a few days back.
Crossover soon.
I thought you would be out canvassing today.
If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
I have been out and about in Tooting. Though activity is quite sedate. Big swing expected to Labour.
I received my ballot paper and I have already voted LABOUR. We are expecting Labour 18 - 20% here in K&S.
I expect Labour to win Tooting by well over 5000.
You'd be better off spending your time in Croydon Central.
Yes - I'm surprised there's much need for activity in Tooting - in the current state of the polls it should be safe. Unless Labour know something different....
The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.
I think a decisive battleground might well be the North-West where there are no less than thirteen vulnerable Conservative constituencies:
Blackppol N Bury N Carlisle Chester Crewe Lancaster Morecambe Pendle Rossendale South Ribble Warrington S Weaver Vale Wirral W
For all the excitement about Scotland the election will be decided where it always is - middle sized towns with names reminiscent of English lower division football.
There is quite a cluster of marginals around Derby-Nottingham as well:
Amber Valley Broxtowe Erewash Sherwood
Plus High Peak, Lincoln and Northampton S elsewhere in the East Midlands - Corby already being a Labour byelection gain.
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
It's far from certain. Obama's socialist regime has halved the U.S. jobless rate.
Absolute employment in the US is 68.6% compared to 73.4% here. The US unemployment figures are pretty shamefully manipulated by a weird way of calculating inactivity. If they used our definition of inactivity the US unemployment rate would be 4 points higher.
You are very lucky I'm on my phone, otherwise you'd be receiving a 400 word essay on the advantages of measuring employment rather than unemployment :-)
Hopefully that essay would be aimed at others, I already use employment in my analysis instead of unemployment. It is much, much harder to manipulate absolute employment figures of the working age population than unemployment figures.
As I remember the old Eastern Bloc communist countries were able to create very good employment figures.
In fact its easy to do so for governments if they're willing to spend money they don't have.
If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.
Dont know why you would self damage your brain reading this Calum. I am just back from Aberdeen and if the response I got on the doors and on the streets is anything to go by I have detected something else at work and that is contempt and hatred for the Labour Party especially amongst women. I don't think I have come across such loathing for the Labour Party before. There was a time I would have said that Ann Begg was safe in Aberdeen South but that is no longer the case, I think she is gone and it will be women that will nail her.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.
Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?
Perhaps he didn't study Edmund Burke on that PPE course.
'All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.'
Alongside Cameron and nodding away vigourously is Theresa May, who it seems thinks that the South Yorkshire Police are 'fit for purpose'.
Joanna Simons the head of the council has gone. I doubt that anyone previously involved in child care is still around. The review into the affair published by the Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children Board said Oxfordshire’s 'organisational response was weak and lacked overview', and it was t'he efforts of junior staff which detected the pattern of group child sexual exploitation'. But the report then stated that Oxfordshire now has a 'nationally renowned' level of expertise in approaching multi-agency CSE investigations.
A specialist team, involving Thames Valley Police and local health services, called Kingfisher, was set up in 2012 to oversee the issue in the county. The OSCB issued a series of 13 recommendations and 60 learning points for agencies and professionals.
If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.
Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
If Amanda Platell had bothered to do any research before writing this drivel, she would have quickly established that the SNP surge is being led by women. If anyone is scaring off female voters in Scotland its Jim Murphy, as he's spent the last few months chasing the 120,000 male voters SLAB had lost to the SNP.
Platell must be a sandwich short of a picnic. Must be among the worst crap I have ever seen written. These Daily Mail people are really shi****g themselves.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
Best in all these polls to check the numbers before turnout weightings applied. In these seats anyone with a modicum of interest in voting will be got out by the party machines.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
What is going on? Has someone got the leak of a poll?
Dunno, I'm not a 2-1 must great value Lab most seats man now to be honest though. I know that view differs from alot of bettors but with the Tories eating their allies tail in the SW and SLAB's woes in Scotland I think 2-1 is about right.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
The scribe at BF can't spell, and you'd have thought they might show an understanding of how the PMship may well change hands later in the year without an election. What with all the talk of a well-hung parlyameant and stuff.
Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished.
This is true. For months in the run-up to the indyref the YESsers had their posters everywhere and you saw hardly any posters for NO, and they still got their urruses kucked.
Farage or his successor wont take long to see the votes in pushing an English Parliament.
Agreed. It annoys me so much that the LAB leadership didn't start this one off. They could have said "We need to improve the Union" and actually proposed something concrete. They could have dominated the debate. What a bunch of wimps! (And I'm not being partisan, btw: I'm Labour.)
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
Reading West to go close I think.
Both Milton Keynes and Reading have a sizable ethnic minority population,especially Reading which has a good sized Pakistani population.
Hastings to go Lab I think. Ashcroft showed a Lab lead and Labour run the council there and they are not unpopular.
Making it amusing if both show the exact same scores (or same shift in scores). That would be on par with the sort of thing we've seen this far I'd say.
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
Best in all these polls to check the numbers before turnout weightings applied. In these seats anyone with a modicum of interest in voting will be got out by the party machines.
I remember the same thing being posted on here before - someone then went and checked turnout in 2010 in marginal seats and found it was no higher than other seats.
Most marginal seats in 2010:
Hampstead & Kilburn - turnout 66% Hendon - turnout 59% Warwickshire North - turnout 67% Bolton West - turnout 67%
Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:
Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished.
This is true. For months in the run-up to the indyref the YESsers had their posters everywhere and you saw hardly any posters for NO, and they still got their urruses kucked.
We used to reckon the Tories were still ahead of the LibDems unless the ratio of LibDem/Tory posters got above 40:1.....
Making it amusing if both show the exact same scores (or same shift in scores). That would be on par with the sort of thing we've seen this far I'd say.
What are the trigger points for either Cameron or Miliband to resign after the GE, is it just as simple as not being the PM? Or is it, not being the PM and having fewer than X seats? If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive? For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284? For Cameron is it 307+ ?
Dunno about Dave.
For Ed it will be "Whatever Nicola says".
"Nigel? - I need your 10 seats urgently? or it;'s my job" "What's your best offer?" "A referendum in 2017" "2015 it is"
So no ComRes/IOS onlibne poll (even though it's due this weekend?) but maybe a ComRes/MoS phone poll?
And some unusual movements taking place on the Spreads?
Hmmmmmm...
Yeah thats what mike said earlier.
The before-after debate issue's a red herring imho. doubt it'll make the blindest but if the YG shows its usual narrow churn it'll keep labour happy.
more impt issues could be the great weather, that the remaining private schools are coming back from hols this weekend & the key imho to look at differences between phone vs online pollsters. I continue of the opinion that online polls are tosh
So how many polls are we expecting tonight, is it three? Do we have an idea of the release time?
Yes
Thanks. I never know how to interpret the market movements mentioned down thread, as I don't have a sense of the liquidity in the market (too lazy to open it up!)
35% may have been overcooking it, but it is there and substantial.
Also Con, LD, DUP... dunno - the LDs may switch sides if thats the case...
Fisher's model is based on a theory that I used to espouse but which got smashed at GE10 - that the polls always over state Labour.
There have only been 2 data-points since polling was reformed - one backs this assertion up the other doesn't.
I've got his model down as bearish Labour, Mike. But still it identified EdM PM as a good bet. So I've used it ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk for my analysis of the Ed PM bet.
Comments
If anything, Con seats and Lab PM are understated here, because the Lib Dems and DUP will be significantly smaller than the SNP on yesterday's polling.
What does OGH think?
Off to the footy in the glorious sunshine now. "Come on Leicester boys! Make some frigging noise!"
"What is certain is that there is zero chance of the UK’s jobs boom continuing if a coalition of Left-wing parties take over after May and set off an ideologically-driven tax and regulatory avalanche. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html
A pall will descend on PB after 7th May .... will you have withdrawal symptoms?
Sometimes people seem to think that there are many more seats in Scotland than there actually are. There are just 59 and most people were assuming that LAB had lost three quarters already. Now maybe it is nine-tenths.
The real battlegrounds are being ignored - the CON-LAB spats in England and Wales. That's where the election will be decided and the Tories need to be a lot closer to the 10.2% E+W vote share lead that they had in 2010.
I'm hoping that SPIN will be doing an article for us and the spread trading.
@Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-snp-battleground-in-april-2015.html
Should we be making Police Scotland aware of your activities?
Compared to Miliband, Obama is a Tory.
If the latter what are the minimum number of seats that each requires to survive?
For EdM is it 258 + (10%) 26 = 284?
For Cameron is it 307+ ?
For Ed it will be "Whatever Nicola says".
And around my parts too ....
It would be useful to see some models break down their seat projections in terms of regions and battlefields (LAB safe seats, CON safe seats, two-way LAB-CON marginals, etc)
I'm reminded of the scene in Dr Strangelove where Maj Matt 'King' Kong (Miliband), sits astride two thermo-nuclear bombs on a B52 with the graffiti 'Hi John' (Sturgeon) and 'Hello There' (Salmond).
Obama is not proposing to cripple the US jobs market by adding on a mass of labour laws.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying.html
I think the race/qualifying is set up intriguingly but there's little value that I saw.
'@Douglas4Paisley: Great response in Paisley town centre this morning, talking about Labour's plan for Renfrewshire. http://t.co/1e7o9O3SSG'
Great turnout,11 Labour activists.
Crossover soon.
David Cameron demanding at PMQs the the Brown government take action against Haringey council over the Baby P scandal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK9jtVkc1rE
Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?
Perhaps he didn't study Edmund Burke on that PPE course.
'All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.'
Alongside Cameron and nodding away vigourously is Theresa May, who it seems thinks that the South Yorkshire Police are 'fit for purpose'.
On a Saturday.
Has a turnout of eleven.
Sure, SLAB can turn it round...
If you are can I ask in which constituency and how its going ?
I received my ballot paper and I have already voted LABOUR. We are expecting Labour 18 - 20% here in K&S.
2. Counting posters as a way of assessing progress is finished. The parties seem to have realised that posters are a waste of time and money.
I've complained to the BBC again. They'll send me some polite response again. Is there actually any avenue for real complaint?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3044355/PLATELL-S-PEOPLE-women-t-stand-Sturgeon.html
The Electoral Commission?
You'd be better off spending your time in Croydon Central.
Over here if the government hadn't spent so much effort into getting people off long term benefits and into the jobs market the unemployment rate would be close to 4%. I think one of the greatest achievements of this lot has been to get low skilled people back into the workplace rather than on benefits. Hopefully workplace training will kick in and these lower skilled people will be able to increase their productivity and wages.
Blackppol N
Bury N
Carlisle
Chester
Crewe
Lancaster
Morecambe
Pendle
Rossendale
South Ribble
Warrington S
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
For all the excitement about Scotland the election will be decided where it always is - middle sized towns with names reminiscent of English lower division football.
There is quite a cluster of marginals around Derby-Nottingham as well:
Amber Valley
Broxtowe
Erewash
Sherwood
Plus High Peak, Lincoln and Northampton S elsewhere in the East Midlands - Corby already being a Labour byelection gain.
In fact its easy to do so for governments if they're willing to spend money they don't have.
Con had been steady at 1.52/1.54.
Con was then matched out at 1.57.
Within a minute or two Con was back to 1.51/1.52
Now 1.51/1.56 - very unusually wide spread.
What is going on? Has someone got the leak of a poll?
Looks as if something is going on.
Con 1.5/1.56
Lab 2.8/3.0
Massive spreads!
2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam
1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay
Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South
The review into the affair published by the Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children Board said Oxfordshire’s 'organisational response was weak and lacked overview', and it was t'he efforts of junior staff which detected the pattern of group child sexual exploitation'. But the report then stated that Oxfordshire now has a 'nationally renowned' level of expertise in approaching multi-agency CSE investigations.
A specialist team, involving Thames Valley Police and local health services, called Kingfisher, was set up in 2012 to oversee the issue in the county.
The OSCB issued a series of 13 recommendations and 60 learning points for agencies and professionals.
Your cheap nasty slur is miserable and pathetic.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31715345
The OCSB pointed out these events occurred berween 2005 and 2010 (under a Labour govt).
There is an IPCC investigstion into S Yorks Police.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/twenty-new-complaints-about-south-yorkshire-police-officers-over-rotherham-scandal-1-7083729
I make the 'gap' a large 35% in my analysis.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/irn-bru-lady-nicola-sturgeon-not-5504150
And some unusual movements taking place on the Spreads?
Hmmmmmm...
Good for advertising revenue mind.
Meanwhile, wise words from two commenters here: This is true. For months in the run-up to the indyref the YESsers had their posters everywhere and you saw hardly any posters for NO, and they still got their urruses kucked. Agreed.
It annoys me so much that the LAB leadership didn't start this one off. They could have said "We need to improve the Union" and actually proposed something concrete. They could have dominated the debate. What a bunch of wimps! (And I'm not being partisan, btw: I'm Labour.)
35% may have been overcooking it, but it is there and substantial.
Also Con, LD, DUP... dunno - the LDs may switch sides if thats the case...
Hastings to go Lab I think. Ashcroft showed a Lab lead and Labour run the council there and they are not unpopular.
Surely this is the offer that tips the scales in favour of Labour?
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Katie Hopkins on ED Milliband " I will leave the country if this man becomes PM "
Most marginal seats in 2010:
Hampstead & Kilburn - turnout 66%
Hendon - turnout 59%
Warwickshire North - turnout 67%
Bolton West - turnout 67%
Average turnout in England was 66%.
Betting on Question 1 of the Ashcroft or against Question 2
"What's your best offer?"
"A referendum in 2017"
"2015 it is"
There have only been 2 data-points since polling was reformed - one backs this assertion up the other doesn't.
The before-after debate issue's a red herring imho. doubt it'll make the blindest but if the YG shows its usual narrow churn it'll keep labour happy.
more impt issues could be the great weather, that the remaining private schools are coming back from hols this weekend & the key imho to look at differences between phone vs online pollsters. I continue of the opinion that online polls are tosh