Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.
What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?
Little Ed peering out of Nicola's bosom is the image of the election so far....
Im not political in the sense of canvassing but I've heard this being mentioned a lot last two days. More the way Nicola pleaded with him. The other comment is how awful Farage came over.
Has there been any discussion on here of the YouGov poll where they asked voters to match policies to parties.
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
I think this is partially the result of Ed going up against a bunch of minor parties. He did not look like PM material in the debate of also-rans and Nicola.
As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.
Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.
On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
I wouldn't place too much on lack of Tory posters. It's well known that shy tories are not keen on posters.
Yes there are shy tories but at this stage in the campaign all the existing known poster sites should be up and they help bolster morale within the volunteers. In 2010 the Conservatives drew level in poster numbers with the LDs in a ward that the LDs had represented for over 20 years. When that ward's ballot boxes were opened the Conservatives had a majority for the first time in 20 years.
As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.
Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.
On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
The lack of posters is an indicator of a poor ground game. I had you down as a certainty Nick since Soubry puts off the Conservative volunteers who are Eurosceptic and not wet. They also happen to be the majority.
The 1,000s of Broxtowe LibDems switchers might also have something to do with the result.
It was a nice sunny Saturday morning in Stafford this morning. The town seemed very busy although the number of empty shops was a bit disconcerting. The Conservatives had a good number of people supporting Jeremy Lefroy in the centre, next door to the Greens and a Parkinsons charity. No sign of other parties.
Wow, solid poll for the blue team. Should also have a decent lead in England with that figure.
Yup - 38 Con, 32 Lab for England only. Solid lead given how high UKIP are.
How much of a swing from Con to Lab is that in England?
About 2.5 points, but with UKIP at 13 points it is really tough to say what is really happening. UKIP could be building up a bunch of votes in Tory strongholds and the Tories could still be very competitive in the marginals. Ashcroft showed that the Tories are squeezing UKIP in the marginals.
Has there been any discussion on here of the YouGov poll where they asked voters to match policies to parties.
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
I think this is partially the result of Ed going up against a bunch of minor parties. He did not look like PM material in the debate of also-rans and Nicola.
Con lead twice in a row with Opinium (online) whereas generally Con is doing better with phone and Lab better with online.
Well one explanation is that ICM wasn't an outlier & the tories really are 5-6% ahead
I am yet to really understand what the changes Yougov made to their polling really means in the likely effects. Maybe OGH we need a thread on that to set out the different viewpoints?
Con lead twice in a row with Opinium (online) whereas generally Con is doing better with phone and Lab better with online.
Well one explanation is that ICM wasn't an outlier & the tories really are 5-6% ahead
I said at the time that ICM may just be a leading indicator rather than outlier. Last time ICM had a poll out of line with the other polls was when they had the Tories on 36 with a 4 point lead, after that the other polls began to move in line with ICM and then ICM followed it up with another Con 36.
If the Con > UKIP squeeze is going well then the Tories may be on 37/38 in the next ICM.
Is the 4% conservative lead in the Opinium poll tonight post the challengers debate. I am certain there is a rich seam of votes for the conservatives over the SNP dictating English law as demonstrated in the debate
If there's a Tory lead in YouGov tonight then I expect crossover again on the "PM after election" market.
Labour if they want to have any chance simply need to get back to talking about cracking down on the super-rich and other Labour issues. They are simply NOT going to win by prattling on endlessly about "fiscal responsibility".
Tend not to do early bets, but given what happened and a delay whilst I decide what to do over that bet, here's another: Raikkonen, podium, 2, Betfair.
Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.
What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?
I think this is partially the result of Ed going up against a bunch of minor parties. He did not look like PM material in the debate of also-rans and Nicola.
It was a nice sunny Saturday morning in Stafford this morning. The town seemed very busy although the number of empty shops was a bit disconcerting. The Conservatives had a good number of people supporting Jeremy Lefroy in the centre, next door to the Greens and a Parkinsons charity. No sign of other parties.
Hope he gets back in. Does a lot for charity in Africa & actually had a proper job.
Is the 4% conservative lead in the Opinium poll tonight post the challengers debate. I am certain there is a rich seam of votes for the conservatives over the SNP dictating English law as demonstrated in the debate
Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.
What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?
Im not sure what he can say. To put it simply he needs her, and everyone knows it.
Its not quite like that. Its not that he needs her... its that he would like to be her. That is safe in the comfort zone of spouting far, hard left, damn the reality, loony tune rhetoric and the economics to go with it - and no responsibility for it all.
I think this is partially the result of Ed going up against a bunch of minor parties. He did not look like PM material in the debate of also-rans and Nicola.
Amazed to see Don King polling so high.
I always thought it was Donkey Kong. Would be a better PM than Ed.
A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.
Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?
Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.
We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.
Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.
Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.
Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.
It would br great if Marcus could join us on PB.com for the remainder of the GE campaign - he's a great guy. Come on Marcus don't be shy, let's be hearing from you!
I remember "Commentator" well from the early days. I wonder if they are still posting under a different name.
Commentator became Test (or was it the other way round) and is well known in political circles but anonymity is this site's strictest rule.
Has there been any discussion on here of the YouGov poll where they asked voters to match policies to parties.
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
Just back from three hours with Philip Hammond - and security detail quietly in the background- in search of the voters of Weybridge and actually finding quite a few. He knocked on the doors like any other canvasser and faced the brunt of some sharp questioning as well as a solid measure of support.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
Those of us who have bet on EICIPM need to hold our nerve tonight. All is within the margin of error.
The most worrying thing isn't even the polls, it's that over the past week Labour have let the Tories start setting the terms of the debate again.
Look at the Opinium tables, The Tories are holding onto more of their 2010 vote and leeching much more of Labour's 2010 vote than the reverse. Labour are basically reliant on the 25-30% of Lib Dem 2010 voters who have switched to them turning up for them on the day. Not a position I would want to be in. As I said before the manifesto reveals when the Tories were going massively negative and Ed was playing to his 35%, they had that reason and the Tories weren't giving people a positive vision or reason to vote for them. Post manifesto this has been oddly reversed with Ed talking the language of cuts and austerity and Dave talking about £8bn more for the NHS vs Reeves saying £2.5bn and trying to discredit the £8bn figure.
I don't think Labour can hit the 35% on their manifesto as a platform, but the Tories should be able to get enough in the centre to be the largest party. Dave even brought back his Big Society crap for good measure, so clearly someone in the party is thinking clearly enough to see that the Tories need to offer a positive vision for the future of the nation. Labour's strategists seem to have lost their heads with the manifesto, any talk of policies being held back is just wishful thinking, the first question will be "why wasn't this in the manifesto, is it a policy or an aspiration", "well if it is a real policy then why not put it in the manifesto" ad nauseam.
Has his government taken any action against Oxfordshire county council or does Cameron think that Oxfordshire council's childrens services is still suitable for taking care of vulnerable children in his constituency ?
Joanna Simons the head of the council has gone. I doubt that anyone previously involved in child care is still around. The review into the affair published by the Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children Board said Oxfordshire’s 'organisational response was weak and lacked overview', and it was t'he efforts of junior staff which detected the pattern of group child sexual exploitation'. But the report then stated that Oxfordshire now has a 'nationally renowned' level of expertise in approaching multi-agency CSE investigations.
A specialist team, involving Thames Valley Police and local health services, called Kingfisher, was set up in 2012 to oversee the issue in the county. The OSCB issued a series of 13 recommendations and 60 learning points for agencies and professionals.
What is pathetic is your continual excuse making for this government's inaction. And whether you like it or not Cameron's none response to Oxfordshire is in total contrast to his theatrical, political point scoring regarding Haringey. Political point scoring you repeat with your obsession to blame everything on the previous Labour government - the Oxfordshire abuse happened, and most likely is still happening, under a Conservative council.
I would have hoped after the Janner decision that nobody would demean themselves to defend the establishment's action.
But I see that there is no depth to which you wont sink.
As to your drivel of information - Oxfordshire's chief executive received a £600,00 payoff when she left, a nice reward for failure there. The rest is just the usual meaningless self-congratulatory crap that public services spout about themselves and each other and which is always repeated by those claiming 'things are different now'. Just like they did about Rotherham.
Has there been any discussion on here of the YouGov poll where they asked voters to match policies to parties.
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
I reckon that's what the Con / Lab choice boils down to for at least 75% of people. All the details are ignored.
Allow for some random variation - I had a chap this week who said "I'm thinking of voting Labour, but I've read on the internet that you want to abolish the NHS, which seems a bit worrying." Sigh!
The lack of posters is an indicator of a poor ground game. I had you down as a certainty Nick since Soubry puts off the Conservative volunteers who are Eurosceptic and not wet. They also happen to be the majority.
Local Tories here are often fairly Europhile too - it's a long tradition in Notts (cf. Ken Clarke), and the constituency has had seriously Europhile MPs continuously for the last 40 years (Jim Lester, me, Anna Soubry). But there aren't very many active local Tories - they don't even quite have a full slate of Borough council candidates, and their canvasses are generally 3-5 people. I wouldn't say we have massive numbers of activists either, but at this election we're benefiting from the big Labour membership in Nottingham, who last time concentrated on Gedling (which is easier to reach from the city, but now looks pretty safe).
Has there been any discussion on here of the YouGov poll where they asked voters to match policies to parties.
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
I reckon that's what the Con / Lab choice boils down to for at least 75% of people. All the details are ignored.
Allow for some random variation - I had a chap this week who said "I'm thinking of voting Labour, but I've read on the internet that you want to abolish the NHS, which seems a bit worrying." Sigh!
The lack of posters is an indicator of a poor ground game. I had you down as a certainty Nick since Soubry puts off the Conservative volunteers who are Eurosceptic and not wet. They also happen to be the majority.
Local Tories here are often fairly Europhile too - it's a long tradition in Notts (cf. Ken Clarke), and the constituency has had seriously Europhile MPs continuously for the last 40 years (Jim Lester, me, Anna Soubry). But there aren't very many active local Tories - they don't even quite have a full slate of Borough council candidates, and their canvasses are generally 3-5 people. I wouldn't say we have massive numbers of activists either, but at this election we're benefiting from the big Labour membership in Nottingham, who last time concentrated on Gedling (which is easier to reach from the city, but now looks pretty safe).
Comments
For each of 12 policies they asked which party had the named policy.
For only one policy (ie out of 12) did a majority of people correctly name the party.
This shows that the vast majority of people are not listening to anything anybody says - most people are voting purely on gut feel, which I would sum up as:
Con = lower taxes, lower spending, welfare cuts, nasty, competent
Lab = higher taxes, higher spending, higher welfare, nice, risky
I reckon that's what the Con / Lab choice boils down to for at least 75% of people. All the details are ignored.
;-)
.....
One is not amused.
I fdo wonder where tim is... Ranting at cats and screaming whenever Osborne is on the screen probably
and snowflake5 and her crazed defences of Brown's economic genius - best LAB parody account ever - or maybe that was the Professor...
If the Con > UKIP squeeze is going well then the Tories may be on 37/38 in the next ICM.
Labour if they want to have any chance simply need to get back to talking about cracking down on the super-rich and other Labour issues. They are simply NOT going to win by prattling on endlessly about "fiscal responsibility".
Betting PostTend not to do early bets, but given what happened and a delay whilst I decide what to do over that bet, here's another:
Raikkonen, podium, 2, Betfair.
I think he's got a good shot of beating Rosberg.
Great pic of Nicola and Eck ...
X
That is safe in the comfort zone of spouting far, hard left, damn the reality, loony tune rhetoric and the economics to go with it - and no responsibility for it all.
I think Skybet's Scottish prices warrant further investigation.
Conservative vs Labour in Scotland
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5707378/To-Win-More-Seats-In-Scotland-Match-Bets.html
I shoulder the burden with great equanimity and my usual sense of understatement and quiet dignity and modesty ....
Maybe someone can find it on the YouGov site.
Betting PostTwo, or possibly three, tips included in my look at an intriguing race tomorrow:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/bahrain-pre-race.html
37 again finds itself under siege.
Politics apart, only I think in Britain, would the Foreign Secretary (and doubtless other senior Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet Ministers) spend the time seriously engaging with their constituents and hearing an authentic vox pop. Quite humbling to see the democratic process at work.
PS We chatted about the national picture - I am pleased to report that all seems to be going as planned but will say no more, squire!
I don't think Labour can hit the 35% on their manifesto as a platform, but the Tories should be able to get enough in the centre to be the largest party. Dave even brought back his Big Society crap for good measure, so clearly someone in the party is thinking clearly enough to see that the Tories need to offer a positive vision for the future of the nation. Labour's strategists seem to have lost their heads with the manifesto, any talk of policies being held back is just wishful thinking, the first question will be "why wasn't this in the manifesto, is it a policy or an aspiration", "well if it is a real policy then why not put it in the manifesto" ad nauseam.
*** Opens up popcorn ****
I would have hoped after the Janner decision that nobody would demean themselves to defend the establishment's action.
But I see that there is no depth to which you wont sink.
As to your drivel of information - Oxfordshire's chief executive received a £600,00 payoff when she left, a nice reward for failure there. The rest is just the usual meaningless self-congratulatory crap that public services spout about themselves and each other and which is always repeated by those claiming 'things are different now'. Just like they did about Rotherham.
The exact sort of 'investigation' that the IPCC will do in South Yorkshire.
Very convenient for the South Yorkshire plods and very convenient for political cheerleaders who want to pretend that action is being taken.