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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliban

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  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Foxinsox's reverse psychology/superstitious post this morning seems to have worked.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Everyone seems to be relying on Ashcroft to make their winnings. I'm not sure I would.
    Quickest way to the poor house.
    Betting on Ashcroft polls, or against them?
    No, the question is

    Betting on Question 1 of the Ashcroft or against Question 2 ;)
    Surely it has to be on Question 2. Q2 is nearer reality even though the candidate names aren't given. Q1 is more about core belief rather than practical voting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    OMG Betfair Exchange is absolutely dead today. I have been able to place decent constituency bets on a daily basis and there has been absolutely nothing today.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Get a few after the polls close. They might be worth something in a few years if the worst happens to the LibDems.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Sometimes there's an inverse relationship between the number of signs and posters and that party's chances of winning the seat in question.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yeovil?!

    Golly, even as a long shot visit that's remarkable.

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Farage was not trying to appeal to soft blue Kippers, he was going for the red ones and I think it is a good strategy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    The indies are doing their best to eliminate each other down here... the guy who ran the Chinese unimaginatively buried his wife under the patio as well. We only do those sort of crimes round here. This husband and wife combo had half our village plastered in their signs last time around.
    Councillor, 73, flew into a jealous rage and stabbed his wife, 47, eight times with seven inch kitchen knife 'when he discovered she was having an affair with the postman'

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3038813/Councillor-73-discovered-wife-47-having-affair-postman-flew-jealous-rage-stabbed-eight-times-seven-inch-kitchen-knife.html#ixzz3Xg66mQzY
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    AndyJS said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Sometimes there's an inverse relationship between the number of signs and posters and that party's chances of winning the seat in question.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    I've never thought of Reading or Milton Keynes as trendy.

    Are you one of those poor souls that lives in the wastelands north of the Watford gap?
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    If the Greens are targeting the left wing and ukip the right wing of Labour, could we be heading for a decade or so of Happy Times for the Conservatives?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Farage was not trying to appeal to soft blue Kippers, he was going for the red ones and I think it is a good strategy.
    I think Red Kippers are the key to UKIP's success in 2020.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Or Red Herrings?
    MP_SE said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Farage was not trying to appeal to soft blue Kippers, he was going for the red ones and I think it is a good strategy.
    I think Red Kippers are the key to UKIP's success in 2020.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Farage was not trying to appeal to soft blue Kippers, he was going for the red ones and I think it is a good strategy.
    Thats his problem - assuming you are right, which I doubt. Who is he? Red or Blue?

    As for What Mark was saying - yes I agree. ''Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.''
    If there is one thing for certain that has emerged from the campaign so far it must be 'Miliband in the pocket of the SNP'.
    And the anti Trident SNP are clearly painted as hard far left. This was the motivation of many lefties who voted YES in the referendum and being betrayed and humiliated by the NO vote which London Labour manufactured, they have decamped.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    If the Greens are targeting the left wing and ukip the right wing of Labour, could we be heading for a decade or so of Happy Times for the Conservatives?

    In Canada the Reform Party of Canada replacing the Canadian Conservative Party took ten years.

    That's what I think the Conservative Party faces over the the next decade.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    I've never thought of Reading or Milton Keynes as trendy.

    Are you one of those poor souls that lives in the wastelands north of the Watford gap?
    It is not Chelsea but Reading has some real trendy parts with a lot of IT companies headquartered there and the main shopping centre Oracle pretty good with numerous stylish, riverside restaurants.

    Perhaps you are thinking of Swindon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    If the Greens are targeting the left wing and ukip the right wing of Labour, could we be heading for a decade or so of Happy Times for the Conservatives?

    Seems unlikely. Even if the Tories somehow scrape together another coalition which lasts the next parliament - no easy task given the dearth of obvious allies with sufficient numbers and a keenness to enter into a deal, and the many challenges they would face - they will then have been running a government which has been cutting for 10 years (I am certain targets will be pushed back to mean the deficit is erased at the very end). Even assuming Labour are not recovering in Scotland by then, and losing some support to Red Kippers (if they keep up that tactic, they seem to have scaled back a bit) and the Greens (coming to nothing once again it seems, and if not now, why afterwards?), I should think that will be made up by Con-Lab switchers (or Con stay ay homers) from what will be a stale, hated government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103


    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    It might be the one thing that can really shift momentum if the Conservatives just keeping hammering on the point. It's probably the one big thing they've got right so far in this campaign. And now the numbers are starting to stack up to emphasise the threat is real, the right messaging can be very effective.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Get a few after the polls close. They might be worth something in a few years if the worst happens to the LibDems.

    Yes very true.

    However they are still active in York Outer but their leaflets never mention the national position, just attack the Council which is currently Labour.
    I believe they have given up in this seat, especially when they did not win it last time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good evening, everyone.

    Tasty qualifying.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SMukesh said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    I've never thought of Reading or Milton Keynes as trendy.

    Are you one of those poor souls that lives in the wastelands north of the Watford gap?
    Perhaps you are thinking of Swindon.
    No. That's not something one does without a fresh cup of tea.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    SMukesh said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yesterday I posted a list of all the seats that Ashcroft has polled this year where the gap was 5% or less. Those could be the seats where the election is decided. These are the seats where the gap was 2% or less:

    2% gap: Cleethorpes, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Finchley, Halesowen, Milton Keynes South, Sheffield Hallam

    1% gap: Berwickshire, Castle Point, Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich North, Torbay

    Tie: Pudsey, Rossendale, South Ribble, Swindon South

    Labour are pissing up if they take Milton Keynes South tbh.
    The South is not the wasteland for Labour that some people assume. They're doing pathetically in Kent and Essex, but all the signs are they're performing well in the "trendier" parts of the South (Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading).
    I've never thought of Reading or Milton Keynes as trendy.

    Are you one of those poor souls that lives in the wastelands north of the Watford gap?
    It is not Chelsea but Reading has some real trendy parts with a lot of IT companies headquartered there and the main shopping centre Oracle pretty good with numerous stylish, riverside restaurants.

    Perhaps you are thinking of Swindon.
    Some of those hi-tech sites, like Thames Valley Park, probably employ people in numbers that some heavy industries like mining and shipbuilding would have done in some seats in the past. Except their salaries are way above anything those industries could have ever imagined.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    AndyJS said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Sometimes there's an inverse relationship between the number of signs and posters and that party's chances of winning the seat in question.
    Almost certainly true in OXWAB
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
    "even Scotland"

    Blimey! That's amazing.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Plato said:

    Yeovil?!

    Golly, even as a long shot visit that's remarkable.

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    If Yeovil elects a Tory in place of the Lawsmeister it will be a significant move leftwards
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
    "even Scotland"

    Blimey! That's amazing.
    Some Scots have a crazed determination to see the sun before they die.....
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Plato said:

    Or Red Herrings?

    MP_SE said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Farage was not trying to appeal to soft blue Kippers, he was going for the red ones and I think it is a good strategy.
    I think Red Kippers are the key to UKIP's success in 2020.
    Only 3 weeks until we find out.

    There could be many more results similar to Heywood and Middleton. Or there could be none.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT The other day you mentioned the 82 countries you've been to - I'm a poor 43rd with only about 30 - where have you been? For my bucket list reference.

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
    "even Scotland"

    Blimey! That's amazing.
    Some Scots have a crazed determination to see the sun before they die.....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    OT The other day you mentioned the 82 countries you've been to - I'm a poor 43rd with only about 30 - where have you been? For my bucket list reference.

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
    "even Scotland"

    Blimey! That's amazing.
    Some Scots have a crazed determination to see the sun before they die.....
    Some of the more unlikely to be matched? Somalia....Yemen....Guinea Bissau....Algeria....Trinidad...South Georgia.....Equatorial Guinea....Colombia....

    Edit: Oh - Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.....
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    And was he carrying a cracked chamber pot? (tm. @JackW)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    Marcus got very bitter with Cam when he lost in 2010 didn't he?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My other half specialises in the *stans. He's been everywhere emerging market wise.

    PM me if you'd like - I'm building an epic bucket list.

    Plato said:

    OT The other day you mentioned the 82 countries you've been to - I'm a poor 43rd with only about 30 - where have you been? For my bucket list reference.

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Not a bad result for Ed to get 16% of the vote on a Tory stall in a constituency where Labour got 6% in 2010.
    Except....many of those voting were holidaymakers from Wales, the North-west, even Scotland....
    "even Scotland"

    Blimey! That's amazing.
    Some Scots have a crazed determination to see the sun before they die.....
    Some of the more unlikely to be matched? Somalia....Yemen....Guinea Bissau....Algeria....Trinidad...South Georgia.....Equatorial Guinea....Colombia....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I'm sure I met him at a pb.com drinks gathering once - maybe back in the Liberal Club days?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    GIN1138 said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    Marcus got very bitter with Cam when he lost in 2010 didn't he?

    Unlike the Murphys
  • I'm trying to understand the Labour mea culpa re immigration where they've learned lessons, etc.

    It seems to be all those who came were because of bad evil business people in the UK enticing them here to be ripped off. I presume labour's mistake was to innocently not thrash these evil business people for such shoddy approach.

    I can understand certain parts of team red will swallow that but it's such a leftie pain-free way of accepting the blame and shifting it on to big bad business.

    And yet...


    Dan Hodges retweeted
    Jonathan Portes‏@jdportes·3 hrs3 hours ago
    Little/no evidence for @Ed_Miliband's claim: "an epidemic of exploitation is driving up the number of low-skill workers who come here."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    F1: written about half the pre-race piece. Markets still asleep, so I'll check them again in a little while.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    I'm trying to understand the Labour mea culpa re immigration where they've learned lessons, etc.

    It's just about having said something which allows them the pretext to move on from the issue as though it's been dealt with, the actual words or detail of lessons learned is irrelevant. Like when a party clearly has no intention of taking the sort of action that would be necessary to address a perceived problem, but don't want to lose votes from those who think it does need to be addressed, by simply saying they 'understand the concerns' and possibly that they too are jolly worried about it
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    He had some VERY good canvas returns. Almost as good as Rik's.
  • A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    It would br great if Marcus could join us on PB.com for the remainder of the GE campaign - he's a great guy.
    Come on Marcus don't be shy, let's be hearing from you!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    EDIT: to be fair, Torbay is a pig of a seat to read. Large areas of the constituency where it is difficult to know what the underlying politics should be. Made all the more difficult by Sanders having an extra five years of incumbency this time - and by UKIP, who seem to be going for the NOTA vote the LibDems tapped into.

    It's a fascinating place to be this election!
  • Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Get a few after the polls close. They might be worth something in a few years if the worst happens to the LibDems.

    They will be worth a good deal more if you can get your hands on some of those Winning Here posters!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I'm sure I met him at a pb.com drinks gathering once - maybe back in the Liberal Club days?
    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Otherwise your house will be searched at dawn by a hit squad from ConHome looking for deviant yellow peril tendencies such as remnants of a quiche in the bin, no razor blades in bathroom cabinets, sandals hidden under the bed and worst of all a horde of old Focus leaflets in brown paper bags in the loft !!

    You have been warned.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    It would br great if Marcus could join us on PB.com for the remainder of the GE campaign - he's a great guy.
    Come on Marcus don't be shy, let's be hearing from you!
    I remember "Commentator" well from the early days. I wonder if they are still posting under a different name.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    EDIT: to be fair, Torbay is a pig of a seat to read. Large areas of the constituency where it is difficult to know what the underlying politics should be. Made all the more difficult by Sanders having an extra five years of incumbency this time - and by UKIP, who seem to be going for the NOTA vote the LibDems tapped into.

    It's a fascinating place to be this election!
    Do you live in Devon/Cornwall?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    JackW said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I'm sure I met him at a pb.com drinks gathering once - maybe back in the Liberal Club days?
    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Otherwise your house will be searched at dawn by a hit squad from ConHome looking for deviant yellow peril tendencies such as remnants of a quiche in the bin, no razor blades in bathroom cabinets, sandals hidden under the bed and worst of all a horde old Focus leaflets in brown paper bags in the loft !!

    You have been warned.

    I think the horde of Focus leaflets in the loft would show I was a Tory sleeper agent though....?

    Whatever happened to Augustus Carp? I think he was our man on the door there. Charming fellow.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: Tories move to 4% lead with Opinium Observer poll
    CON 36
    LAB 32
    LD 8
    UKIP 13
    GRN 5
  • New Opium Gold Standard....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    Having had my fingers burned that time I have learned my lesson.

    I must say though that I enjoy reading the reports from the front line that you and others file for us. So my thanks to you for taking the time.

    My last canvassing stint was at the Euros and my next will be at the upcoming Gib general election this year so I'm feeling quite left out this month!

    Actually that's a randomly random thought. This year by virtue of various things I will vote in three general elections ... in the UK, Gib and Spain.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    "Six people arrested by UK police over alleged terror offences after a family was stopped at the Turkey-Syria border have been released without charge."

    I always wondered about the legal basis for arresting someone on terror offences when the only proof is a sudden desire to visit Jihadi parts of Syria. Perhaps a legal person on here could explain.

    Since when has wishing to visit a war-zone been illegal? Unwise perhaps, but not illegal. Unless they cough to a crime or are carrying plans to bomb somewhere, why waste the Turkish Authorities time?
  • @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117


    Whatever happened to Augustus Carp? I think he was our man on the door there. Charming fellow.

    And Benedict White. And Henry- where are his tennis tips? And of course SBS who was such a nice man.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    So we've had tonight's first rogue poll then...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SMukesh said:

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    EDIT: to be fair, Torbay is a pig of a seat to read. Large areas of the constituency where it is difficult to know what the underlying politics should be. Made all the more difficult by Sanders having an extra five years of incumbency this time - and by UKIP, who seem to be going for the NOTA vote the LibDems tapped into.

    It's a fascinating place to be this election!
    Do you live in Devon/Cornwall?
    @MarqueeMark is the reincarnation of Basil Fawlty and resides in Torquay.

    His silly walk whilst canvassing the Torbay Constituency is the talk of old Colonels, Barcelona waiters and falling moose heads county wide.

  • @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015

    loving the lefty paper's polling companies currently
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015

    Well well well. They retained the 36%. Couple more of those and things will get interesting.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Tories move to 4% lead with Opinium Observer poll
    CON 36
    LAB 32
    LD 8
    UKIP 13
    GRN 5

    Is that Con's biggest ever lead with Opinium?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015

    Take 3 points off the Kippers and give them to the Tories, and that might not be far off the final result.....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    tyson said:



    Whatever happened to Augustus Carp? I think he was our man on the door there. Charming fellow.

    And Benedict White. And Henry- where are his tennis tips? And of course SBS who was such a nice man.


    At least JackW is still with us, an antique pbCOM fixture and fitting, although I don't know how old he must be now. Very I suspect.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015

    It is quite bizarre that it is the Guardian polls which have the Tories up.

    I can`t even criticise it as it`s from the Guardian :-(
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con very strong on Betfair this afternoon .

    I posted the sudden movements on here a couple of hours ago - you have to wonder if someone had seen the Opinium.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Opinium!!!!!!!

    :-) :-)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    JackW said:


    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.

    On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
  • SMukesh said:

    @NCPoliticsUK: Opinium/Observer:

    CON 36 (=)
    LAB 32 (-2)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+2)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    Fieldwork 16th-17th
    Tabs http://t.co/MJFjKhBWED
    #GE2015

    It is quite bizarre that it is the Guardian polls which have the Tories up.

    I can`t even criticise it as it`s from the Guardian :-(
    Just describe it as Margin of Error changes.

    Nothing to get excited or despondent about.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Phwoaarrrrr
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Either Opinium had changed its methodology or the Debate was good for Cam :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    MikeL said:

    Con very strong on Betfair this afternoon .

    I posted the sudden movements on here a couple of hours ago - you have to wonder if someone had seen the Opinium.

    If we are getting a ComRes phone poll we might get two polls giving The Blue's a lead?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    MikeL said:

    Con very strong on Betfair this afternoon .

    I posted the sudden movements on here a couple of hours ago - you have to wonder if someone had seen the Opinium.

    Or some of the others?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    SPIN have reopened their scottish constituency markets.

    4/6 on the SNP in Midlothian is decent. I've had as much as they'll allow me (selling Lab @ 16)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited April 2015
    A fine sunny day today.

    Is there a correlation between sunny days and Conservative leads? I predict a Con lead tonight.

    The future of Britain may depend on whether 7th May is a sunny day.

    Edit: I posted this before I saw the Opinium poll.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    Whatever happened to Augustus Carp? I think he was our man on the door there. Charming fellow.

    And Benedict White. And Henry- where are his tennis tips? And of course SBS who was such a nice man.
    At least JackW is still with us, an antique pbCOM fixture and fitting, although I don't know how old he must be now. Very I suspect.

    SBS is sadly no longer with us.

    I fdo wonder where tim is... Ranting at cats and screaming whenever Osborne is on the screen probably
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    JackW said:

    SMukesh said:

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    EDIT: to be fair, Torbay is a pig of a seat to read. Large areas of the constituency where it is difficult to know what the underlying politics should be. Made all the more difficult by Sanders having an extra five years of incumbency this time - and by UKIP, who seem to be going for the NOTA vote the LibDems tapped into.

    It's a fascinating place to be this election!
    Do you live in Devon/Cornwall?
    @MarqueeMark is the reincarnation of Basil Fawlty and resides in Torquay.

    His silly walk whilst canvassing the Torbay Constituency is the talk of old Colonels, Barcelona waiters and falling moose heads county wide.

    I'll have you know I live in Dr Sarah's Totnes constituency.

    Otherwise, spot on....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.

    What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Aye, a number of excellent posters being recalled.

    Mr. Tyson, unsure if you know this, but Mr. SBS sadly passed away. A great shame, as he was a fine fellow.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:


    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.

    On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
    Such revelations !! .... and your chances of a place in the Cabinet must now be considered as "Too Close To Call" .... :smile:

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited April 2015
    Wow, solid poll for the blue team. Should also have a decent lead in England with that figure.

    Yup - 38 Con, 32 Lab for England only. Solid lead given how high UKIP are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Barnesian said:

    A fine sunny day today.

    Is there a correlation between sunny days and Conservative leads? I predict a Con lead tonight.

    The future of Britain may depend on whether 7th May is a sunny day.

    I believe someone in Labour in 2010 claimed rainy days help the Tories. Poor people don't have Mercedes to drive them to the polling station or something like that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Scott_P said:

    Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.

    What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?

    Im not sure what he can say. To put it simply he needs her, and everyone knows it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Scott_P said:

    Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.

    What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?

    Little Ed peering out of Nicola's bosom is the image of the election so far....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    At least JackW is still with us, an antique pbCOM fixture and fitting, although I don't know how old he must be now. Very I suspect.
    I haven't quite sloped off to the big ARSE in the sky just yet .... not quite .... :smiley:

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    How do we reconcile that Opinium is online?

    Con lead twice in a row with Opinium (online) whereas generally Con is doing better with phone and Lab better with online.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    JackW said:


    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.

    On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
    I wouldn't place too much on lack of Tory posters. It's well known that shy tories are not keen on posters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Im not sure what he can say. To put it simply he needs her, and everyone knows it.

    He needs her now, but there comes a point when she can no longer help him. If ICM is not an outlier, she is no good to him. My question is at what levels in the polls does that occur?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    Test
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    SMukesh said:

    GeoffM said:

    A day of superb sunshine today in Torbay (only enjoyed though once you were out the vicious wind). Tories had a well-manned street stall in the heart of Torquay, and the Home Secretary wandering around doing a meet and greet.

    Thought it worth passing on that after Torbay, she was going to Yeovil. Is Yeovil REALLY in play then?

    Lots of evidence the Kipper vote is shrinking, as they'll hold their nose and vote blue on the day. Farage did himself no favours in this week's debate - we heard that multiple times.

    We also had a "Cameron or Miliband for PM?" voting thing, where we wandered around the centre with big plastic boxes and invited people to drop a ball in one or other for their choice.

    Cameron won by a 5 to 1 margin.

    Miliband in the pocket of the SNP is a HUGE negative down here. Heard it said today many times, unprompted.

    Did you meet Marcus Wood - ex CON candidate and one of the very early regulars on PB - even before GE2005.

    I recall him well. His campaign postings didn't turn out to be a *cough* exact reflection of the result *cough* and caused a small dent in my bank account as a result.
    I am aware of that - and tailor my reporting accordingly....
    EDIT: to be fair, Torbay is a pig of a seat to read. Large areas of the constituency where it is difficult to know what the underlying politics should be. Made all the more difficult by Sanders having an extra five years of incumbency this time - and by UKIP, who seem to be going for the NOTA vote the LibDems tapped into.

    It's a fascinating place to be this election!
    Do you live in Devon/Cornwall?
    @MarqueeMark is the reincarnation of Basil Fawlty and resides in Torquay.

    His silly walk whilst canvassing the Torbay Constituency is the talk of old Colonels, Barcelona waiters and falling moose heads county wide.

    I'll have you know I live in Dr Sarah's Totnes constituency.
    Carpetbagger. :wink:

  • JackW said:


    As a highly active Torbay Tory I should keep it very quiet you ever stepped foot over the threshold of the Liberal Club.

    Pah, I can trump that - I was INVITED to the Conservative Club in my patch to give a talk. And I've stayed at the Carlton Club (my dad was a member) - not as nice as the National Liberal Club IMO.

    On the poster count, there are almost no Soubry posters at all (to be precise I've counted 1) - presumably she's decided not to bother, though it seems odd to go to the trouble of printing exactly one. There are three big billboard adverts, though.
    The lack of posters is an indicator of a poor ground game. I had you down as a certainty Nick since Soubry puts off the Conservative volunteers who are Eurosceptic and not wet. They also happen to be the majority.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Sometimes there's an inverse relationship between the number of signs and posters and that party's chances of winning the seat in question.
    Some of these may be to do with council seats rather than parliamentary ones. Leicester and Leics are Con/Lab battles at national level but often Con/LD or Lab/LD at council.

    I saw a couple more Keith Vaz posters and one for Jon Ashworth on the way back from the footy.
    Yorkcity said:

    I was in Harrogate yesterday yellow diamond signs very prominent, impressive to say they do not have much of a chance against the blues.

    Indeed. I am happy to take Rogerdamus's crown for my football tip today. Leicester City are looking a bit better tonight. Burnley are in trouble, next week is a real six pointer. Then we have Chelsea at home (which is our game in hand).

    Buzzing and have lost my voice though.

    Foxinsox's reverse psychology/superstitious post this morning seems to have worked.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    A fine sunny day today.

    Is there a correlation between sunny days and Conservative leads? I predict a Con lead tonight.

    The future of Britain may depend on whether 7th May is a sunny day.

    I believe someone in Labour in 2010 claimed rainy days help the Tories. Poor people don't have Mercedes to drive them to the polling station or something like that.
    So Labour need a coldish grey day. Sunshine or lashing rain will favour the Tories. But it's too soon to look at the weather forecast for 7 May.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    So about a third of labour voters dont even think miliband will be best PM. Ouch

  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    MikeL said:

    How do we reconcile that Opinium is online?

    Con lead twice in a row with Opinium (online) whereas generally Con is doing better with phone and Lab better with online.

    Well one explanation is that ICM wasn't an outlier & the tories really are 5-6% ahead
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, solid poll for the blue team. Should also have a decent lead in England with that figure.

    Yup - 38 Con, 32 Lab for England only. Solid lead given how high UKIP are.

    How much of a swing from Con to Lab is that in England?

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    At least JackW is still with us, an antique pbCOM fixture and fitting, although I don't know how old he must be now. Very I suspect.
    I haven't quite sloped off to the big ARSE in the sky just yet .... not quite .... :smiley:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    At least JackW is still with us, an antique pbCOM fixture and fitting, although I don't know how old he must be now. Very I suspect.
    I haven't quite sloped off to the big ARSE in the sky just yet .... not quite .... :smiley:

    My Uncle's Uncle recently passed away as the oldest known man in the world

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Imich

    JackW- I guess you must be very close to be taking on his mantle.
  • Scott_P said:

    Right now Ed refuses to rebuff Nicola because she is his only hope, but it is almost certainly costing him votes in England.

    What would the polls need to be for him to tell Nicola where to go in a Hail Mary attempt to salvage something in England (Scotland is an extinction level event either way)?

    It would be interesting to hear Nick Palmer's view on this aspect (if he dares to go public on it).
This discussion has been closed.