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Isn't Hull East your typical Red Rosette on a donkey constituency? I am always very skeptical of these leaked internal polls.antifrank said:Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
They will have to get Two Jags out on his soap again.0 -
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
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UKIP placing third in Reading East would be a surprise. They must be doing very well in the Wokingham wards.ukelect said:I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
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Mr. C, maybe Mr. Sykes and Mr Observer should swap their political pessimism?
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You'll have withdrawal symptoms after the election...Sunil_Prasannan said:GB opinion polls.... must have GB opinion polls....
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Only 1 national poll today ? YG at 10.30 ? Bit of a rarity that !0
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Like nearby Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Tory vote went up from 31% to 41% between 2005 and 2010.
Indeed. Even Swansea is de industrialising fast. And the electorate is getting older.0 -
Is this a fair observation?
One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
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antifrank said:
Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here0 -
I assume it was part of the after ice age movement, or shortly thereafter. Just purely my guess though based on their findings that the genetics of these islands are largely unchanged since.anotherDave said:
It would be interesting if they could date that.FalseFlag said:Nicholas Wade mentions it in his NYT article. Of course France is split between the Germanic North and Latin South.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/nicholas-wade-study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons/
"such as a massive migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
They say it's not the Norman invasion.
"But the geneticists see no trace of ... the Norman Conquest of England in 1066. ... also point to events that have not been recorded, such as a major migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/science/study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons.html
Original Normans displaced by the Vikings taking Normandy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Normandy#Scandinavian_invasions0 -
What about EVEL?Casino_Royale said:Off topic, looking at the LD manifesto, there's quite a bit of overlap with the Tory one. I'm sure that's not by accident.
I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.0 -
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).0
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The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?
Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.
The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.
It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.0 -
Conservatives doing well with LD constituency supporters there. (I assume that refers to Welsh Assembly constituency.)chestnut said:
A good blue omen for LD/Con marginals.
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Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
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It's accurate about the existence of a Jewish bloc (I live with one...always liked Jewish birds) and accurate about disinclination to answer the phone at Passover. Either they're too frumm (the Jewish demotic word for 'conspicuously observant Jew'; noun, frummer; used by and of frummers, with no pejorative overtones), or they're likely to be having Passover meal and won't break off any more than you'd get up from Easter Sunday lunch to do the same.Plato said:Is this a fair observation?
One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
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I'm surprised they've even bothered going to Hornsey, do they honestly think Featherstone can hold on?! All the activity in Muswell Hill has been on the Labour side, and this is probably the Lib Dems best part of the constituency.Plato said:The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?
Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.
The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.
It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.
Nailed on LAB Gain I'd say.0 -
Miss Plato, shade early to invoke Atropos, I suspect.0
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Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.0
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Fighting on 2 fronts. That will prove to be entertaining.MaxPB said:Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.
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PB is one of only two places I can mention her without blank faces or Was That One Of The Three Musketeers?Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, shade early to invoke Atropos, I suspect.
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Given the speed of the tectonic plate movement then crossing on foot would probably have been possible for 100s of years no ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
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There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.Brom said:antifrank said:Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
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ukelect said:
I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
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Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.
How completely embarrassing for the polling companies, too.0 -
UKIP up on the Local Election results in a Yorkshire Humber seat.
I'm going to have a look round for UKIP/Labour posters up in Rother Valley tonight, will report back.
Not really,taffys said:Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.
How completely embarrassing for the polling companies, too.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/rother-valley/
UKIP 1 pt behind in question 1.
Just need to squeeze the rump Tory vote.0 -
Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
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Someone posted the map of leader visits for the parties yesterday. Ed's are almost exclusively in the North of England. They know they are in big troubleanotherDave said:There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy0 -
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?0 -
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.0 -
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.anotherDave said:
There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.Brom said:antifrank said:Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy0 -
OT
An old joke for the season
While walking down the street one day a Member of Parliament is tragically hit by a truck and dies.
His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance
'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter.
'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'
'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.
'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'
'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.
'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'
And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he went down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he found himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.
Everyone is very happy and dressed in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.
They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and champagne.
Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it's time to go.
Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and wave whilst the elevator rises....
The elevator rises and the door opens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.
'Now it's time to visit heaven.'
So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.
'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'
The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'
So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down down to hell.
When the doors open he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.
He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.
'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..
Today you voted.
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I think we have to take that Hull poll with truckloads of salt.
First thing I spotted was the date range (1st October 2014 to 14th March 2015)
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They know they are in big trouble
If labour are in big trouble in the North, then how the f8ck are labour touted to be taking 20/40 tory marginals.
Unless, that is, the polls we have seen, and the comments of the political media, are a complete pile of garbage.0 -
isam said:
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.0 -
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Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently and I would reckon I know a hell of a lot more about both the continent and the rest of the world than a racist little Englander like yourself.Bond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.0 -
Has anyone managed to adapt the widget so as to auto-delete posts from morons like James Bond?Bond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
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Agree, looks specious and even if accurate, 7% is still a handsome margin.murali_s said:I think we have to take that Hull poll with truckloads of salt.
First thing I spotted was the date range (1st October 2014 to 14th March 2015)
Have they faked it and leaked it to gee up suggestible Kippers in seats where a UKIP surge could win the seat for Labour? Ed's Little Helper strategy?0 -
LOL Richard_Tyndall said:OT
An old joke for the season
snip
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.
'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..
Today you voted.0 -
The Hull poll completely corresponds with the Heywood and Middleton by election and Rotherham/Rother Valley polls.
Cleethorpes that Lord A looked at recently may not be indicative of Great Grimsby in particular.
UKIP may make some surprise gains here, at any rate they could get a tremendous amount of seconds !0 -
Hmm. Most of the French females I have known have had a bit of both angel and devil in them so you might have something there :-)anotherDave said:
Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
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ComRes have "a poll" out shortly, apparently. Dunno if national.0
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Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?0 -
@Andrew_ComRes: New ComRes/ITV News poll: Lib Dem votes collapses in south west - Tories set to benefit http://t.co/6pfHhnETKB0
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I'm dubious about this Hull East supposed poll, but it is worth noting that it was the 13th best UKIP seat in 2010 (hat tip AndyJS):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nkhnemIsp8xN3ln0aZWefDmo6GsZoQBjM_IVoOWHst8/edit#gid=00 -
@ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR0
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Oh you rascal youTGOHF said:isam said:Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.0 -
Will UKIP be taking control of Tor Bay council?MarqueeMark said:
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.anotherDave said:
There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.Brom said:antifrank said:Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
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@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News poll shows 13-point swing from Lib Dems to Tories in SW LD-held seats http://t.co/cbU8RsLGlT0
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Dave Can't Win Here.Scott_P said:
@ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR
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No.anotherDave said:
Will UKIP be taking control of Tor Bay council?MarqueeMark said:
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.anotherDave said:
There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.Brom said:antifrank said:Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy0 -
You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were.....Bond_James_Bond said:
Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
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Taxi!Scott_P said:@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News poll shows 13-point swing from Lib Dems to Tories in SW LD-held seats http://t.co/cbU8RsLGlT
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"The latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has focused in on the Liberal Democrat heartland – 14 currently Liberal Democrat seats in the South West (where their Coalition partners, the Conservatives, are in second) - and reveals a 13-point swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. If a 13 point swing was seen in each constituency, it could hand the Conservatives control of all of these seats."
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Taxi not required...anotherDave said:Taxi!
@GuidoFawkes: BREAKING: ComRes / ITV News Con/LD Battleground in South West predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives0 -
The Hulk got a really raw deal IMO...RobD said:
You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were.....Bond_James_Bond said:
Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?0 -
Since we know the Lib Dems hang on disproportionately well where they are incumbents against the Conservatives:Tissue_Price said:
Bristol West (Labour) 9-4 (Greens saver too if you like) to essentially Lay Lib Dems at Evens.
Truro and Falmouth, Cons @ 1-4 still.
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Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.Bond_James_Bond said:
Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?0 -
Yeovil last swapped in 1983...Scott_P said:
Taxi not required...anotherDave said:Taxi!
@GuidoFawkes: BREAKING: ComRes / ITV News Con/LD Battleground in South West predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives0 -
No incumbency in Bath !0
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@ian_a_jones: Latest map of the main leaders' campaign visits, for @pressassoc. Note how Miliband is focusing on northern England. http://t.co/rLvKiF4XrC0
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He bloody well better, I've got a modest chunk on Tory success in the Southwest.Plato said:Dave Can't Win Here.
Scott_P said:@ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR
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Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.0
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@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem0
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Can you reconcile it to Question 1 of the Ashcroft polls ?antifrank said:Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
That's the key.
Some huge swings from Q1 to Q2.0 -
As I recall in Lord A's polls the Tories tending to win on the standard VI question, and sometimes lost on the 'in your constituency' question.antifrank said:Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
They were ambiguous.
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Minibus for the Lib Dems.0
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Somerton and Frome looks too long at 1-3 off the back of both this and Ashcroft.
Note Ladbrokes is top price Lib Dems @ 3-1.0 -
If James Bond is Spider Man, I'll eat my hat!Richard_Tyndall said:
Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.Bond_James_Bond said:
Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?0 -
It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.0
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Is there a list of the 8 seats Mr Farage has visited?Scott_P said:@ian_a_jones: Latest map of the main leaders' campaign visits, for @pressassoc. Note how Miliband is focusing on northern England. http://t.co/rLvKiF4XrC
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Sure you did.Richard_Tyndall said:
I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.Bond_James_Bond said:
Sure you do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluentlyBond_James_Bond said:
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...Richard_Tyndall said:
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.SouthamObserver said:Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Like the German Army.0 -
Always said he should have resigned around the time of the last party conference!Scott_P said:@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem
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Not if they want to win back the LD>Green voters.MaxPB said:Minibus for the Lib Dems.
National Cycle Network all the way to Westminster!
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The ComRes is only in Lib Dem seats in the South West.JGC said:It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
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How long have the Liberals been the dominant political force in the Westcountry? A century and a half? A wipe out there would be epochal.0
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There's not really a better way to put it than this.nu123 said:Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.0 -
Minibus for the Lib Dems.
Does this affect the London seats? K&S? Ravey Davey?0 -
They are on that graphic if your geography is up to it...anotherDave said:Is there a list of the 8 seats Mr Farage has visited?
I don't know of a text list0 -
21 Nigels are standing for election. 10 of them are UKIP candidates.0
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You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.Dair said:
There's not really a better way to put it than this.nu123 said:Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.0 -
You can compare this poll against Question ONE of the Ashcroft polls.JGC said:It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
Torbay
Portsmouth South
St Ives
Taunton Deane
Wells
Somerton and Frome
North Devon
North Cornwall
Bath not been Ashcrofted
Yeovil not been Ashcrofted
One of those isn't SW classified though... Hmm...
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Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.MikeSmithson said:
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...0 -
I agree - it is very difficult to reconcile this poll with the others. If this is true then the Conservatives seem to be doing way better in some Con/LD marginals than previously indicated.antifrank said:Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
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@ComResPolls: For those asking, VI question for our South West battlegrounds poll prompted both local MP & constituency http://t.co/4QMx7XpEqv0
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Just to illustrate my previous point. The last Ashcroft figures for North Cornwall from March this year show in answer to the national vote question T 41% Lib 24%, this equates to T+1% & Lib - 24% since 2010 absolutely in line with the Comres figures. However when looking at the constituency voting intention the Libs are 2% ahead. There is a question about how accurate the second part really is, we shall find out in three weeks time, but no question the two sets of polls can be compatible.0
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I'm not generally a big fan of Farage but hats off to him. He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party, something I never thought possible. Us Conservatives would easily see them off, but for the absurd complacency of many in my parties.isam said:Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?0 -
Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.Dair said:
There's not really a better way to put it than this.nu123 said:Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.0 -
You were right. A new leader would have put 5-10% on their VI, I reckon.OldKingCole said:
Always said he should have resigned around the time of the last party conference!Scott_P said:@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem
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If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?0
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Your information is out of date. Wales is currently the poorest country in the world.Dair said:
There's not really a better way to put it than this.nu123 said:Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.0 -
Yes, it does. Although, overall I don't think Glasgow reaches the levels of poverty found in Wales (certainly in pockets, but overall I doubt it's close). To an extent it applies to every single safe Labour seat throughout the UK.initforthemoney said:
Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.Dair said:
There's not really a better way to put it than this.nu123 said:Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Labour as a party of the poor have absolutely NO incentive at all to life anyone out of poverty. Just the opposite, the poorer people stay, the more reliant they can become on their vote. Labour are the nasties, most evil and most disgusting political movement I can imagine.0 -
I canvassed a Liberal today, only take 2 weeks to find one. 4 times as many greens in the village, well 4 in total actually. #canvassinganacdotes0
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Unfortunately that doesn't tie in with reports of party workers joining in with the booing against journalists at todays manifesto launch.JEO said:
He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party,isam said:Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
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