Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
Isn't Hull East your typical Red Rosette on a donkey constituency? I am always very skeptical of these leaked internal polls.
They will have to get Two Jags out on his soap again.
I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
UKIP placing third in Reading East would be a surprise. They must be doing very well in the Wokingham wards.
One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
"such as a massive migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
It would be interesting if they could date that.
They say it's not the Norman invasion.
"But the geneticists see no trace of ... the Norman Conquest of England in 1066. ... also point to events that have not been recorded, such as a major migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
I assume it was part of the after ice age movement, or shortly thereafter. Just purely my guess though based on their findings that the genetics of these islands are largely unchanged since.
Off topic, looking at the LD manifesto, there's quite a bit of overlap with the Tory one. I'm sure that's not by accident.
I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?
Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.
The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.
It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
It's accurate about the existence of a Jewish bloc (I live with one...always liked Jewish birds) and accurate about disinclination to answer the phone at Passover. Either they're too frumm (the Jewish demotic word for 'conspicuously observant Jew'; noun, frummer; used by and of frummers, with no pejorative overtones), or they're likely to be having Passover meal and won't break off any more than you'd get up from Easter Sunday lunch to do the same.
The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?
Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.
The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.
It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.
I'm surprised they've even bothered going to Hornsey, do they honestly think Featherstone can hold on?! All the activity in Muswell Hill has been on the Labour side, and this is probably the Lib Dems best part of the constituency.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
Given the speed of the tectonic plate movement then crossing on foot would probably have been possible for 100s of years no ?
I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?
Someone posted the map of leader visits for the parties yesterday. Ed's are almost exclusively in the North of England. They know they are in big trouble
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
While walking down the street one day a Member of Parliament is tragically hit by a truck and dies.
His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance
'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter.
'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'
'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.
'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'
'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.
'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'
And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he went down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he found himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.
Everyone is very happy and dressed in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.
They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and champagne.
Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it's time to go.
Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and wave whilst the elevator rises....
The elevator rises and the door opens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.
'Now it's time to visit heaven.'
So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.
'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'
The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'
So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down down to hell.
When the doors open he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.
He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.
'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently and I would reckon I know a hell of a lot more about both the continent and the rest of the world than a racist little Englander like yourself.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Has anyone managed to adapt the widget so as to auto-delete posts from morons like James Bond?
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.
'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?
Hmm. Most of the French females I have known have had a bit of both angel and devil in them so you might have something there :-)
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were.....
"The latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has focused in on the Liberal Democrat heartland – 14 currently Liberal Democrat seats in the South West (where their Coalition partners, the Conservatives, are in second) - and reveals a 13-point swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. If a 13 point swing was seen in each constituency, it could hand the Conservatives control of all of these seats."
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were.....
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
Can you reconcile it to Question 1 of the Ashcroft polls ?
Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
As I recall in Lord A's polls the Tories tending to win on the standard VI question, and sometimes lost on the 'in your constituency' question.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.
It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
The ComRes is only in Lib Dem seats in the South West.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
You can compare this poll against Question ONE of the Ashcroft polls.
Torbay Portsmouth South St Ives Taunton Deane Wells Somerton and Frome North Devon North Cornwall
Bath not been Ashcrofted Yeovil not been Ashcrofted
Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
I agree - it is very difficult to reconcile this poll with the others. If this is true then the Conservatives seem to be doing way better in some Con/LD marginals than previously indicated.
Just to illustrate my previous point. The last Ashcroft figures for North Cornwall from March this year show in answer to the national vote question T 41% Lib 24%, this equates to T+1% & Lib - 24% since 2010 absolutely in line with the Comres figures. However when looking at the constituency voting intention the Libs are 2% ahead. There is a question about how accurate the second part really is, we shall find out in three weeks time, but no question the two sets of polls can be compatible.
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
I'm not generally a big fan of Farage but hats off to him. He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party, something I never thought possible. Us Conservatives would easily see them off, but for the absurd complacency of many in my parties.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Your information is out of date. Wales is currently the poorest country in the world.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.
Yes, it does. Although, overall I don't think Glasgow reaches the levels of poverty found in Wales (certainly in pockets, but overall I doubt it's close). To an extent it applies to every single safe Labour seat throughout the UK.
Labour as a party of the poor have absolutely NO incentive at all to life anyone out of poverty. Just the opposite, the poorer people stay, the more reliant they can become on their vote. Labour are the nasties, most evil and most disgusting political movement I can imagine.
Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party,
Unfortunately that doesn't tie in with reports of party workers joining in with the booing against journalists at todays manifesto launch.
Comments
Wales data tables.
They will have to get Two Jags out on his soap again.
Indeed. Even Swansea is de industrialising fast. And the electorate is getting older.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352
Hull East numbers here
A good blue omen for LD/Con marginals.
Nailed on LAB Gain I'd say.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
How completely embarrassing for the polling companies, too.
I'm going to have a look round for UKIP/Labour posters up in Rother Valley tonight, will report back. Not really,
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/rother-valley/
UKIP 1 pt behind in question 1.
Just need to squeeze the rump Tory vote.
Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
An old joke for the season
While walking down the street one day a Member of Parliament is tragically hit by a truck and dies.
His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance
'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter.
'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'
'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.
'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'
'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.
'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'
And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he went down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he found himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.
Everyone is very happy and dressed in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.
They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and champagne.
Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it's time to go.
Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and wave whilst the elevator rises....
The elevator rises and the door opens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.
'Now it's time to visit heaven.'
So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.
'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'
The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'
So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down down to hell.
When the doors open he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.
He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.
'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..
Today you voted.
First thing I spotted was the date range (1st October 2014 to 14th March 2015)
If labour are in big trouble in the North, then how the f8ck are labour touted to be taking 20/40 tory marginals.
Unless, that is, the polls we have seen, and the comments of the political media, are a complete pile of garbage.
Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.
Have they faked it and leaked it to gee up suggestible Kippers in seats where a UKIP surge could win the seat for Labour? Ed's Little Helper strategy?
Cleethorpes that Lord A looked at recently may not be indicative of Great Grimsby in particular.
UKIP may make some surprise gains here, at any rate they could get a tremendous amount of seconds !
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nkhnemIsp8xN3ln0aZWefDmo6GsZoQBjM_IVoOWHst8/edit#gid=0
@GuidoFawkes: BREAKING: ComRes / ITV News Con/LD Battleground in South West predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives
Bristol West (Labour) 9-4 (Greens saver too if you like) to essentially Lay Lib Dems at Evens.
Truro and Falmouth, Cons @ 1-4 still.
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
That's the key.
Some huge swings from Q1 to Q2.
They were ambiguous.
Note Ladbrokes is top price Lib Dems @ 3-1.
Like the German Army.
National Cycle Network all the way to Westminster!
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Does this affect the London seats? K&S? Ravey Davey?
I don't know of a text list
Torbay
Portsmouth South
St Ives
Taunton Deane
Wells
Somerton and Frome
North Devon
North Cornwall
Bath not been Ashcrofted
Yeovil not been Ashcrofted
One of those isn't SW classified though... Hmm...
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
Labour as a party of the poor have absolutely NO incentive at all to life anyone out of poverty. Just the opposite, the poorer people stay, the more reliant they can become on their vote. Labour are the nasties, most evil and most disgusting political movement I can imagine.