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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2001 LAB incumbency experience: Can CON expect somethin

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.

    Isn't Hull East your typical Red Rosette on a donkey constituency? I am always very skeptical of these leaked internal polls.

    They will have to get Two Jags out on his soap again.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ukelect said:

    I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.

    UKIP placing third in Reading East would be a surprise. They must be doing very well in the Wokingham wards.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. C, maybe Mr. Sykes and Mr Observer should swap their political pessimism? :p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    GB opinion polls.... must have GB opinion polls....

    You'll have withdrawal symptoms after the election...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Only 1 national poll today ? YG at 10.30 ? Bit of a rarity that !
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Like nearby Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Tory vote went up from 31% to 41% between 2005 and 2010.

    Indeed. Even Swansea is de industrialising fast. And the electorate is getting older.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Is this a fair observation?
    One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352

    Hull East numbers here
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    FalseFlag said:

    Nicholas Wade mentions it in his NYT article. Of course France is split between the Germanic North and Latin South.

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/nicholas-wade-study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons/

    "such as a massive migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."

    It would be interesting if they could date that.

    They say it's not the Norman invasion.

    "But the geneticists see no trace of ... the Norman Conquest of England in 1066. ... also point to events that have not been recorded, such as a major migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/science/study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons.html

    Original Normans displaced by the Vikings taking Normandy?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Normandy#Scandinavian_invasions

    I assume it was part of the after ice age movement, or shortly thereafter. Just purely my guess though based on their findings that the genetics of these islands are largely unchanged since.
  • Off topic, looking at the LD manifesto, there's quite a bit of overlap with the Tory one. I'm sure that's not by accident.

    I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.

    What about EVEL?
  • nu123nu123 Posts: 25
    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?
    Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.

    The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.

    It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    chestnut said:
    Conservatives doing well with LD constituency supporters there. (I assume that refers to Welsh Assembly constituency.)

    A good blue omen for LD/Con marginals.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
  • Plato said:

    Is this a fair observation?

    One of the headlines of Lord Ashcroft's polling yesterday was the suggestion that the Conservatives are on course to lose Baroness Thatcher's old seat of Finchley and Golders Green. Conservative candidate Mike Freer has now told Emily Gosden that the polling was flawed, however, as it was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Passover, when the constituency's large Jewish population would not have been responding to callers.
    It's accurate about the existence of a Jewish bloc (I live with one...always liked Jewish birds) and accurate about disinclination to answer the phone at Passover. Either they're too frumm (the Jewish demotic word for 'conspicuously observant Jew'; noun, frummer; used by and of frummers, with no pejorative overtones), or they're likely to be having Passover meal and won't break off any more than you'd get up from Easter Sunday lunch to do the same.
  • Plato said:

    The LDs are really getting the black spot this week - and the power failed during their manifesto launch. Is Atropos getting her point over or what?

    Not again! The Liberal Democrat bus has broken down.

    The yellow coach was stuck in the middle of a narrow hilly road in Crouch End, north London, for ten minutes or so - to the displeasure of a queue of traffic including the W7 bus. Some passers-by took pictures. Others just honked their horns.

    It's the second breakdown in two days. You do the puns.
    I'm surprised they've even bothered going to Hornsey, do they honestly think Featherstone can hold on?! All the activity in Muswell Hill has been on the Labour side, and this is probably the Lib Dems best part of the constituency.

    Nailed on LAB Gain I'd say.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Miss Plato, shade early to invoke Atropos, I suspect.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MaxPB said:

    Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.

    Fighting on 2 fronts. That will prove to be entertaining.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    PB is one of only two places I can mention her without blank faces or Was That One Of The Three Musketeers?

    Miss Plato, shade early to invoke Atropos, I suspect.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Brom said:

    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352

    Hull East numbers here
    There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
    Given the speed of the tectonic plate movement then crossing on foot would probably have been possible for 100s of years no ?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ukelect said:

    I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.



  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.

    How completely embarrassing for the polling companies, too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    UKIP up on the Local Election results in a Yorkshire Humber seat.

    I'm going to have a look round for UKIP/Labour posters up in Rother Valley tonight, will report back.
    taffys said:

    Wow if that Hull poll is real then Labour may have a real fight on their hands in their heartlands vs UKIP.

    How completely embarrassing for the polling companies, too.

    Not really,

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/rother-valley/

    UKIP 1 pt behind in question 1.

    Just need to squeeze the rump Tory vote.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
    Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy

    Someone posted the map of leader visits for the parties yesterday. Ed's are almost exclusively in the North of England. They know they are in big trouble
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)

    Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited April 2015

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950

    Brom said:

    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352

    Hull East numbers here
    There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
    Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    OT

    An old joke for the season

    While walking down the street one day a Member of Parliament is tragically hit by a truck and dies.

    His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance

    'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter.

    'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'

    'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.

    'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'

    'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.

    'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'

    And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he went down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he found himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.

    Everyone is very happy and dressed in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.

    They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and champagne.

    Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it's time to go.

    Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and wave whilst the elevator rises....

    The elevator rises and the door opens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

    'Now it's time to visit heaven.'

    So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

    'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'

    The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'

    So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down down to hell.

    When the doors open he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.

    He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.

    The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.

    'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '

    The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..

    Today you voted.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited April 2015
    I think we have to take that Hull poll with truckloads of salt.

    First thing I spotted was the date range (1st October 2014 to 14th March 2015)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    They know they are in big trouble

    If labour are in big trouble in the North, then how the f8ck are labour touted to be taking 20/40 tory marginals.

    Unless, that is, the polls we have seen, and the comments of the political media, are a complete pile of garbage.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)

    Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?



    Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    OT

    An old joke for the season

    :-) Outstanding!

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently and I would reckon I know a hell of a lot more about both the continent and the rest of the world than a racist little Englander like yourself.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Has anyone managed to adapt the widget so as to auto-delete posts from morons like James Bond?
  • murali_s said:

    I think we have to take that Hull poll with truckloads of salt.

    First thing I spotted was the date range (1st October 2014 to 14th March 2015)

    Agree, looks specious and even if accurate, 7% is still a handsome margin.

    Have they faked it and leaked it to gee up suggestible Kippers in seats where a UKIP surge could win the seat for Labour? Ed's Little Helper strategy?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :heart: LOL

    OT

    An old joke for the season

    snip

    The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. ' I don't understand,' stammers the MP.

    'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened? '

    The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ' Yesterday we were campaigning..

    Today you voted.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    The Hull poll completely corresponds with the Heywood and Middleton by election and Rotherham/Rother Valley polls.

    Cleethorpes that Lord A looked at recently may not be indicative of Great Grimsby in particular.

    UKIP may make some surprise gains here, at any rate they could get a tremendous amount of seconds !
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic. Populations were still migratory at that time although starting to settle down and perhaps using two or three different locations on a rotational basis throughout the year. But the populations were also tiny as far as we can estimate.
    Is there any evidence of an increase in the french population when Satan and his allies were cast out of heaven?

    Hmm. Most of the French females I have known have had a bit of both angel and devil in them so you might have something there :-)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ComRes have "a poll" out shortly, apparently. Dunno if national.
  • Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: New ComRes/ITV News poll: Lib Dem votes collapses in south west - Tories set to benefit http://t.co/6pfHhnETKB
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm dubious about this Hull East supposed poll, but it is worth noting that it was the 13th best UKIP seat in 2010 (hat tip AndyJS):

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nkhnemIsp8xN3ln0aZWefDmo6GsZoQBjM_IVoOWHst8/edit#gid=0
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)

    Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?



    Who ? Ah Ukip - I remember them - they were going to be the kingmakers at one point last May.
    Oh you rascal you
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Brom said:

    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352

    Hull East numbers here
    There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
    Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
    Will UKIP be taking control of Tor Bay council?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News poll shows 13-point swing from Lib Dems to Tories in SW LD-held seats http://t.co/cbU8RsLGlT
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dave Can't Win Here.
    Scott_P said:

    @ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Brom said:

    antifrank said:

    Has this tweet made its way to pb yet?

    Paul Waugh retweeted

    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
    Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/588365632502116352

    Hull East numbers here
    There's been a number of articles talking about a UKIP strategy to become the challenger party in Labour's northern seats.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/maximising-votes-or-mps-ukips-2020-strategy
    Supports the argument that the Tory vote is becoming far more efficient. They can happily lose half their 2010 vote to UKIP in Hull East. And a couple of hundred more besides.
    Will UKIP be taking control of Tor Bay council?
    No.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
    You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were..... :D
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News poll shows 13-point swing from Lib Dems to Tories in SW LD-held seats http://t.co/cbU8RsLGlT

    Taxi!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "The latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has focused in on the Liberal Democrat heartland – 14 currently Liberal Democrat seats in the South West (where their Coalition partners, the Conservatives, are in second) - and reveals a 13-point swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. If a 13 point swing was seen in each constituency, it could hand the Conservatives control of all of these seats."

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Taxi!

    Taxi not required...

    @GuidoFawkes: BREAKING: ComRes / ITV News Con/LD Battleground in South West predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Hulk got a really raw deal IMO...
    RobD said:

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
    You were taught at school how dangerous radioactive spiders were..... :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Since we know the Lib Dems hang on disproportionately well where they are incumbents against the Conservatives:

    Bristol West (Labour) 9-4 (Greens saver too if you like) to essentially Lay Lib Dems at Evens.

    Truro and Falmouth, Cons @ 1-4 still.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
    Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.

    Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yeovil last swapped in 1983...
    Scott_P said:

    Taxi!

    Taxi not required...

    @GuidoFawkes: BREAKING: ComRes / ITV News Con/LD Battleground in South West predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    No incumbency in Bath !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ian_a_jones: Latest map of the main leaders' campaign visits, for @pressassoc. Note how Miliband is focusing on northern England. http://t.co/rLvKiF4XrC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Plato said:

    Dave Can't Win Here.

    Scott_P said:

    @ComResPolls: New @ITVNews poll of South West Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds: Lib Dems see vote share drop by 22 points since 2010 http://t.co/vc7ve5uOWR

    He bloody well better, I've got a modest chunk on Tory success in the Southwest.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    antifrank said:

    Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.

    Can you reconcile it to Question 1 of the Ashcroft polls ?

    That's the key.

    Some huge swings from Q1 to Q2.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.

    As I recall in Lord A's polls the Tories tending to win on the standard VI question, and sometimes lost on the 'in your constituency' question.

    They were ambiguous.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Minibus for the Lib Dems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Somerton and Frome looks too long at 1-3 off the back of both this and Ashcroft.

    Note Ladbrokes is top price Lib Dems @ 3-1.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
    Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.

    Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
    If James Bond is Spider Man, I'll eat my hat!
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    @ian_a_jones: Latest map of the main leaders' campaign visits, for @pressassoc. Note how Miliband is focusing on northern England. http://t.co/rLvKiF4XrC

    Is there a list of the 8 seats Mr Farage has visited?
  • Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.

    Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
    By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...

    Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
    Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
    Sure you do.

    Did I mention I was Spiderman?
    I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.
    Sure you did.

    Like the German Army.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    Scott_P said:

    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem

    Always said he should have resigned around the time of the last party conference!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MaxPB said:

    Minibus for the Lib Dems.

    Not if they want to win back the LD>Green voters.

    National Cycle Network all the way to Westminster!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    JGC said:

    It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.

    The ComRes is only in Lib Dem seats in the South West.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited April 2015
    How long have the Liberals been the dominant political force in the Westcountry? A century and a half? A wipe out there would be epochal.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    nu123 said:

    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).

    There's not really a better way to put it than this.

    The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".

    It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Minibus for the Lib Dems.

    Does this affect the London seats? K&S? Ravey Davey?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is there a list of the 8 seats Mr Farage has visited?

    They are on that graphic if your geography is up to it...

    I don't know of a text list
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    21 Nigels are standing for election. 10 of them are UKIP candidates.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Dair said:

    nu123 said:

    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).

    There's not really a better way to put it than this.

    The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".

    It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
    You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JGC said:

    It seems to me that comparing a regional national voting intention poll with a set of focused constituency polls is like comparing apples with oranges they are different things and they could both be right. The figures from the Comres poll do seem to be broadly in line with the national polls. The Ashcroft polls also seem to fit the general perception on the ground that the Libs will hang on to a number of their seats against the national trend. Nothing unexpected here at all.

    You can compare this poll against Question ONE of the Ashcroft polls.

    Torbay
    Portsmouth South
    St Ives
    Taunton Deane
    Wells
    Somerton and Frome
    North Devon
    North Cornwall

    Bath not been Ashcrofted
    Yeovil not been Ashcrofted

    One of those isn't SW classified though... Hmm...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.

    My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    antifrank said:

    Impossible to reconcile this ComRes poll with Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls. Obviously potentially great news for the Conservatives and awful news for the Lib Dems. The detailed questions will need very close scrutiny.

    I agree - it is very difficult to reconcile this poll with the others. If this is true then the Conservatives seem to be doing way better in some Con/LD marginals than previously indicated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ComResPolls: For those asking, VI question for our South West battlegrounds poll prompted both local MP & constituency http://t.co/4QMx7XpEqv
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And there's never been a Labour MP called Tim.
    AndyJS said:

    21 Nigels are standing for election. 10 of them are UKIP candidates.

  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    Just to illustrate my previous point. The last Ashcroft figures for North Cornwall from March this year show in answer to the national vote question T 41% Lib 24%, this equates to T+1% & Lib - 24% since 2010 absolutely in line with the Comres figures. However when looking at the constituency voting intention the Libs are 2% ahead. There is a question about how accurate the second part really is, we shall find out in three weeks time, but no question the two sets of polls can be compatible.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    isam said:

    Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)

    Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?

    I'm not generally a big fan of Farage but hats off to him. He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party, something I never thought possible. Us Conservatives would easily see them off, but for the absurd complacency of many in my parties.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    AndyJS said:

    21 Nigels are standing for election. 10 of them are UKIP candidates.

    What is the most common candidate name?
  • Dair said:

    nu123 said:

    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).

    There's not really a better way to put it than this.

    The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".

    It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
    Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Scott_P said:

    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: 29% of voters in Lib Dem held seats in SW England say Nick Clegg puts them off voting Lib Dem

    Always said he should have resigned around the time of the last party conference!
    You were right. A new leader would have put 5-10% on their VI, I reckon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Dair said:

    nu123 said:

    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).

    There's not really a better way to put it than this.

    The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".

    It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
    Your information is out of date. Wales is currently the poorest country in the world.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015

    Dair said:

    nu123 said:

    Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).

    There's not really a better way to put it than this.

    The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".

    It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
    Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.
    Yes, it does. Although, overall I don't think Glasgow reaches the levels of poverty found in Wales (certainly in pockets, but overall I doubt it's close). To an extent it applies to every single safe Labour seat throughout the UK.

    Labour as a party of the poor have absolutely NO incentive at all to life anyone out of poverty. Just the opposite, the poorer people stay, the more reliant they can become on their vote. Labour are the nasties, most evil and most disgusting political movement I can imagine.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    I canvassed a Liberal today, only take 2 weeks to find one. 4 times as many greens in the village, well 4 in total actually. #canvassinganacdotes
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JEO said:

    isam said:

    Looks like the UKIP manifesto was too sensible given the lack of faux outrage on here (Reckless and Carswell not there carrying bowls of cocaine on their heads for the press pack aside)

    Farage should've cracked a Bernard Manning gag or something maybe?

    He is gradually making UKIP into a serious party,
    Unfortunately that doesn't tie in with reports of party workers joining in with the booing against journalists at todays manifesto launch.
This discussion has been closed.