Q3. Please now think specifically about your own constituency, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. At the General Election coming up in May, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
Interesting, very very interesting.
You've got to be a braver man than me to back the Lib Dems anywhere in the SW now.
nu123 Of course in 1951 the Tories won a higher voteshare in Scotland than they did in England, let alone Wales. By contrast the Tories have never won the popular vote in Wales in any election since 1918
Weren't we joined to France until 20,000 years ago or something? You'd expect there to be a level of common ancestry given that.
Latest date for the separation is around 6,200BC in the Mesolithic.
By about 6,199 BC there'd no doubt have been palaeo-UKIPpers moaning about them neolithics from Cerny and Chalain, comin' over 'ere, takin' our British flint, and painting them foreign aurochs on our caves...let's have our caves repainted in traditional British colours...
Plus ça change eh? That's French by the way Richard.
Funny. And for the record I speak both French and Norwegian fluently
Sure you do.
Did I mention I was Spiderman?
Silly little man. I worked for a French company all over the world for 18 years and taught geology at their headquarters in Paris. I also spent 15 years working in Norway. I had the common sense and courtesy to learn the languages of the countries I was working in.
Since a number of PB members including RCS are friends on FB and know my background I would be rather daft to try and lie about such things - not least because I am posting under my own name. Just out of interest, are you?
If James Bond is Spider Man, I'll eat my hat!
He is certainly a rather strange little fellow. Not too bright I would guess by his antics on here both today and in the past. It comes to something when you have gone far enough to upset Neil as he is normally one of the most laid back posters on here.
I canvassed a Liberal today, only take 2 weeks to find one. 4 times as many greens in the village, well 4 in total actually. #canvassinganacdotes
Forgot the only gay in the village...sounds like we are talking about the only Lib Dem in the village. If Labour win, will they be given some sort of special status along side BAMEs when it comes to recruitment etc?
Q3. Please now think specifically about your own constituency, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. At the General Election coming up in May, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
Interesting, very very interesting.
You've got to be a braver man than me to back the Lib Dems anywhere in the SW now.
Surely if there is any credence in this then a Lib Dem seat total below 10 (maybe below 5) becomes very likely?
I wonder if Chris Hope can confirm whether he considers Steven Woolfe to be black enough for him or whether he deliberately ignored his presence in the manifesto when attempting to smear UKIP and please his Tory masters:
Forgot the only gay in the village...sounds like we are talking about the only Lib Dem in the village. If Labour win, will they be given some sort of special status along side BAMEs when it comes to recruitment etc?
When is Labour's Lib Dem manifesto launch? Is Vince cable delivering it?
Q3. Please now think specifically about your own constituency, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. At the General Election coming up in May, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
Interesting, very very interesting.
You've got to be a braver man than me to back the Lib Dems anywhere in the SW now.
Surely if there is any credence in this then a Lib Dem seat total below 10 (maybe below 5) becomes very likely?
Dunno, 100-30 Tories in Yeovil looks a punt off the back of this though.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
Same applies to Glasgow until very recently.
Yes, it does. Although, overall I don't think Glasgow reaches the levels of poverty found in Wales (certainly in pockets, but overall I doubt it's close). To an extent it applies to every single safe Labour seat throughout the UK.
Labour as a party of the poor have absolutely NO incentive at all to life anyone out of poverty. Just the opposite, the poorer people stay, the more reliant they can become on their vote. Labour are the nasties, most evil and most disgusting political movement I can imagine.
True and yet they continue to believe the north London Labour nonsense of which Ed M is the latest and probably the worst incarnation. The w/c will get less than nothing from a government led by him.
Would a gay BAME get paid more than someone who only fitted one of the criteria in the public sector when Labour run London (obvs there wouldn't be anyone who fitted neither after the pos discrim set in)
Forgot the only gay in the village...sounds like we are talking about the only Lib Dem in the village. If Labour win, will they be given some sort of special status along side BAMEs when it comes to recruitment etc?
When is Labour's Lib Dem manifesto launch? Is Vince cable delivering it?
Don't give Labour any ideas. We have already had the racist and sexist manifesto launches, don't need any more, especially as Vince would definitely be up for it.
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Before the spotlight of governent shone on them, they were Fluffy Tories in 'traditional Tory" seats, and Fluffy Labour in "traditional Labour" seats. They can't tailor their message to the same extent any more. What a shame.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
The Nat strategy, like the IRA's, seems to be to make themselves so hated that we'll get rid of them at any cost. It didn't work for them and it is a naive assumption to assume that this strategy will have no consequences other than the one they think desirable.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
The bit I don't get is......punishing the Lib Dems by voting Con?
Yeh, I don't get it either but it is funny, chortle, chortle, chortle.
I think some Lib Dem voters have gone full circle and just want to punish them as hard as possible - not a large amount but ~ 1 or 2% of their ex vote:
The Tories are the enemy, the Lib Dem leadership are traitors
Interestingly a leading Tory pointed me towards the 31% of housing association properties occupied by a retired person. And if they're retired they will almost certainly qualify for the full 70% discount.
Q3. Please now think specifically about your own constituency, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. At the General Election coming up in May, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
Interesting, very very interesting.
You've got to be a braver man than me to back the Lib Dems anywhere in the SW now.
Surely if there is any credence in this then a Lib Dem seat total below 10 (maybe below 5) becomes very likely?
If we know anything about this election it is just how complicated and multi-faceted it is. So it's being a bit simplistic to extrapolate from Lib Dem seats in the south-west to those across the country.
It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems could lose all their seats in the South-West, but hold on to seats in London and the SE such as Twickenham, Lewes, Kingston, etc.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
The Nat strategy, like the IRA's, seems to be to make themselves so hated that we'll get rid of them at any cost. It didn't work for them and it is a naive assumption to assume that this strategy will have no consequences other than the one they think desirable.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
That presupposes that there is a way of persuading the British Nationalists in Westminster to let Scotland go out of the goodness of their heart. Pray, what is that way, do you recommend?
“Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?” was Ed’s first presumptuous question when he met someone in a turban on the train back to London after his manifesto launch
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Bath Cheltenham Chippenham Cornwall North Devon North Dorset Mid and Poole North Somerton and Frome St Austell and Newquay St Ives Taunton Deane Thornbury and Yate Torbay Wells Yeovil
If you believe the polling, then the Tories are value at best price in every one of these.
Rough poll for the LDs. And in fairness their manifesto was the hardest to get through. Random thoughts:
Far, far too long, though the index helped a bit. Best graphics of the lot though - the 'record of delivery-promise of more' to start of each chapter worked well. Still, it was like a series of essays.
Fantastic charts (eg p.34 and 122) showing the difference between Labour years and Lib Dem years (rather than coalition years, or lib dem supporting years). Very amusing.
Defence of their record makes a lot of sense, although they deliberately don't make clear where a policy was down to them pushing for it or if it may have come from the other side, The need to finish the job suggests perhaps unintentionally that surely working with the Tories again would be best.
Safe standing football grounds, that's a relief.
Repealing 'parts' of the health and social care act (p.73). A bit indecisive, and harder to defend - why couldn't they amend it before it was brought forward if they didn't like those bits.
Going for the Green Vote seems a waste of energy, funnily enough.
Slipped in parts to talk about setting 'ambitious goals' (p.96), that is, unachievable and they know it. Also 'aiming to achieve' in a few places, to the same effect.
When did BME become BAME? Makes sense, but I must have missed it.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
The Nat strategy, like the IRA's, seems to be to make themselves so hated that we'll get rid of them at any cost. It didn't work for them and it is a naive assumption to assume that this strategy will have no consequences other than the one they think desirable.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
That presupposes that there is a way of persuading the British Nationalists in Westminster to let Scotland go out of the goodness of their heart. Pray, what is that way, do you recommend?
Give them Full Fiscal Autonomy Now (not at some indeterminate point in the future,à la Sturgeon) on $50/oil?
Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
The bit I don't get is......punishing the Lib Dems by voting Con?
That's not what's happened. At least we can't know that,
They 20% they lost has predominantly gone to Labour +9 then UKIP +6 Tory +4 and Green +3.
That Tory +4 switchers must really really hate the Lib Dems now
Well logically, if you want to punish the Lib Dems you vote Tory to destroy them in the hope Labour take over as the best alternative next election (I think you hinted at that in your previous post).
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Some go Labour, some UKIP, some Green, some Tory in the SW - these aren't the urban yellow-red block switchers.
In non-LD seats I am assuming LD switchers are 39% to Lab, 19% to Con, 12% to Grn with 30% remaining. But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining. This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
UKIP's manifesto I thought had the best presentation of any of the ones so far. I did like how rather than just use stock photos throughout, they used stock photos of their MEPs and other figures, with quotes, to give them a higher profile.
I still cannot quite square UKIP as I perceive them and being against NHS privitisation and the bedroom tax. I guess I haven't caught up.
The party of NIMBYism?
Scrapping HS2 a good idea
2 year referendums? Interesting, though why 2 years and not 1, or 3?
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
The Nat strategy, like the IRA's, seems to be to make themselves so hated that we'll get rid of them at any cost. It didn't work for them and it is a naive assumption to assume that this strategy will have no consequences other than the one they think desirable.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
That presupposes that there is a way of persuading the British Nationalists in Westminster to let Scotland go out of the goodness of their heart. Pray, what is that way, do you recommend?
Give them Full Fiscal Autonomy Now (not at some indeterminate point in the future, a la Sturgeon) on $50/oil?
As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Some go Labour, some UKIP, some Green, some Tory in the SW - these aren't the urban yellow-red block switchers.
In non-LD seats I am assuming LD switchers are 39% to Lab, 19% to Con, 12% to Grn with 30% remaining. But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining. This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
This poll blows those figures out the water if it's correct.
Wording of question is "Thinking about your constituency and local MP..."
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Some go Labour, some UKIP, some Green, some Tory in the SW - these aren't the urban yellow-red block switchers.
In non-LD seats I am assuming LD switchers are 39% to Lab, 19% to Con, 12% to Grn with 30% remaining. But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining. This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
The Nat strategy, like the IRA's, seems to be to make themselves so hated that we'll get rid of them at any cost. It didn't work for them and it is a naive assumption to assume that this strategy will have no consequences other than the one they think desirable.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
That presupposes that there is a way of persuading the British Nationalists in Westminster to let Scotland go out of the goodness of their heart. Pray, what is that way, do you recommend?
Give them Full Fiscal Autonomy Now (not at some indeterminate point in the future,à la Sturgeon) on $50/oil?
PS But it's really a question for Mr Bond to answer, given his statements earlier - not that your suggestions aren't welcome.
Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
The bit I don't get is......punishing the Lib Dems by voting Con?
There must be a lot of churn involved; but maybe seeing Tories in power yet not eating more than the occasional baby has softenedthe average Orange booker to the Cameroons. Maybe Daves strategy is working.
Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
The bit I don't get is......punishing the Lib Dems by voting Con?
That's not what's happened. At least we can't know that,
They 20% they lost has predominantly gone to Labour +9 then UKIP +6 Tory +4 and Green +3.
That Tory +4 switchers must really really hate the Lib Dems now
Well logically, if you want to punish the Lib Dems you vote Tory to destroy them in the hope Labour take over as the best alternative next election (I think you hinted at that in your previous post).
That's like UKIP logic for hoping Ed wins - no EU referendum but "the long game".....
“Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?” was Ed’s first presumptuous question when he met someone in a turban on the train back to London after his manifesto launch
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Yes, it is racist. Very much so.
Somehow he seems to be getting away with it. Frankly I think the press should be going ballistic over this - it is the perfect summary of Labour and Miliband's hypocrisy.
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Some go Labour, some UKIP, some Green, some Tory in the SW - these aren't the urban yellow-red block switchers.
In non-LD seats I am assuming LD switchers are 39% to Lab, 19% to Con, 12% to Grn with 30% remaining. But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining. This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
This poll blows those figures out the water if it's correct.
Wording of question is "Thinking about your constituency and local MP..."
Bath Cheltenham Chippenham Cornwall North Devon North Dorset Mid and Poole North Somerton and Frome St Austell and Newquay St Ives Taunton Deane Thornbury and Yate Torbay Wells Yeovil
If you believe the polling, then the Tories are value at best price in every one of these.
Isn't that 14 Lib Dem seats? You also have Bristol West to make it up to 15 seats. I'm going off the south west region from the BBC website on the 2010 election results:
However, Guido says this predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives. I.e. Devon, Cornwall, and Somerset, but not Dorset, Avon and Gloucestershire.
Whatever. I've bet on Cheltenham and Bath before. These were my reasons:
Pretty poor for UKIP in supposedly one of their strongest regions.
My forecasts of doom for the LDs are supported by this. How much personal vote can there be...
The bit I don't get is......punishing the Lib Dems by voting Con?
That's not what's happened. At least we can't know that,
They 20% they lost has predominantly gone to Labour +9 then UKIP +6 Tory +4 and Green +3.
That Tory +4 switchers must really really hate the Lib Dems now
Well logically, if you want to punish the Lib Dems you vote Tory to destroy them in the hope Labour take over as the best alternative next election (I think you hinted at that in your previous post).
You are too kind to Lib Dem voters...
You have to think of the mentality of lib dem voters, a very small amount actually believe in the policies, A slightly larger amount of the vote is purely as a protest, a larger amount (the socks with sandals brigade) vote because "we should give someone else a chance they can't be as bad as the others" the latter are now being brought into the real world.
It should be noted that even Ashcroft's second question had the Lib Dems losing seven out of twelve seats polled in the South West, with a couple of others neck and neck.
All in all, and as useless as the manifestos are this time in particular given the probability of NOM, I'd rate each of them thusly (not that anyone would or should care):
Lab: Serious, but lots of wasted words and poorly laid out. Con: Going for positive message while also trying to increase fear of Labour. Slightly better presentation, but still pertty wordy. LD: Detailed, but way too long, Presumably hoping people circulate the graphics, which were good. Green: Fairly well laid out, creative, but I just cannot accept their view on so many things. UKIP: Presentationally the best. Some good stuff, some not so good, didn't really leave much impact with me.
Maybe it was the length, maybe it was because it was the last one I had read, maybe it was because they are in government, but I found myself instinctively more skeptical of the LD manifesto though.
It should be noted that even Ashcroft's second question had the Lib Dems losing seven out of twelve seats polled in the South West, with a couple of others neck and neck.
It should be noted that even Ashcroft's second question had the Lib Dems losing seven out of twelve seats polled in the South West, with a couple of others neck and neck.
No, it is definitely worse - it shows a 13.5% swing.
Ashcroft was nowhere near that on Question 2 which this poll sort of resembles.
“Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?” was Ed’s first presumptuous question when he met someone in a turban on the train back to London after his manifesto launch
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Yes, it is racist. Very much so.
Somehow he seems to be getting away with it. Frankly I think the press should be going ballistic over this - it is the perfect summary of Labour and Miliband's hypocrisy.
If Ed Miliband rescued a puppy from drowning in a river, you'd probably criticise him for trespassing on private land!
You're an anti Miliband outrage machine. Like the Repubs in America who critique every move Obama makes as Marxism.
Hmmm I wonder what the maximum Tory vote share potential is across Wales? I remember seeing a poll that said only 25% of Welsh people would be likely to ever even consider voting for them which can't be right looking at this poll.(It said 25% are at least 5/10 likely to vote for them). I wonder why the difference between the Welsh Tories and the Zombie party that remains in Scotland (talking of Scottish Tories not SLab or Slib LOL).
There's not really a better way to put it than this.
The Welsh psyche seems to be that of a dockside hooker, lying in the gutter, a bloody pulp but mumbling "please sir, can I have some more".
It is absolutely astonishing that any country can be happy with their position, especially one that 100 years ago was one of the wealthiest in Europe but is now the poorest.
You've insulted the English and the Welsh in your posts today. Perhaps you could try the Northern Irish next? I suspect it was the uglier face of Scottish nationalism that caused so many Scots to vote to stay part of the UK.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
That presupposes that there is a way of persuading the British Nationalists in Westminster to let Scotland go out of the goodness of their heart. Pray, what is that way, do you recommend?
Surely the SNP has an answer to that? Isn't this the most obvious question a peaceful separatist should be prepared to answer - why will rUK be OK with this?
Australia, Canada and New Zealand all managed to transition from direct rule under a governor general to full independence, still within the Commonwealth, and with fully-sovereign Parliaments and a shared head of state. Maybe have a look at that path, and see what lessons can be learned.
Yes lost the referendum entirely because of Yes's tactics. It was winnable, but Yes blew it. Yes were Napoleon in the Waterloo campaign, reportedly a bit detached like he couldn't really believe he was there. One minute Elba, next minute Emperor again. Osborne and Broon were Wellington and Blucher, completely focused. The vow was Yes's Plancenoit.
Napoleon could have won Waterloo. He won three of the battles. Unfortunately they were the wrong three. Yes could have won Sindy but some dolt let the SNP do the thinking.
Disappointed not much on foreign policy in this election. With a reasonable chance the neocon crazies will be coming back to power in Washington uninhibited by Obama where will we stand?
Yes, that reiterates the concerns I've been having on the strength of the Tories ground war operation.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
So sorry Plato, I must have missed this. Apologies, I hope you didn't think I was being rude.
I drop in and out of pb.com during the day, and don't always catch everything!
Yes, that reiterates the concerns I've been having on the strength of the Tories ground war operation.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
So sorry Plato, I must have missed this. Apologies, I hope you didn't think I was being rude.
I drop in and out of pb.com during the day, and don't always catch everything!
I don't. At first I was going to say they look the same after 5 years, but that's not true. You have an idea of what you will get with the Tories, not so with the Lib Dems.
“Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?” was Ed’s first presumptuous question when he met someone in a turban on the train back to London after his manifesto launch
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Yes, it is racist. Very much so.
Somehow he seems to be getting away with it. Frankly I think the press should be going ballistic over this - it is the perfect summary of Labour and Miliband's hypocrisy.
If Ed Miliband rescued a puppy from drowning in a river, you'd probably criticise him for trespassing on private land!
You're an anti Miliband outrage machine. Like the Repubs in America who critique every move Obama makes as Marxism.
Dair may be all of that, but he is still right about this.
As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.
Nicola doesn't want it either
Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.
FFA requires agreement on how much Scotland contributes to Westminster's debt, how much to "UK Wide Spending on London Infrastructure", how much to Foreign and Commonwealth Office, how much to International Development, how much to Defense. It's actually a far more complicated position than Independence.
Was it Mike who had a theory years ago that government approval was inversely correlated to petrol prices? Oil price rebounding at the worst possible time for the coalition if it is. Or it might just have been random statistical noise.
“Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?” was Ed’s first presumptuous question when he met someone in a turban on the train back to London after his manifesto launch
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Yes, it is racist. Very much so.
Somehow he seems to be getting away with it. Frankly I think the press should be going ballistic over this - it is the perfect summary of Labour and Miliband's hypocrisy.
If Ed Miliband rescued a puppy from drowning in a river, you'd probably criticise him for trespassing on private land!
You're an anti Miliband outrage machine. Like the Repubs in America who critique every move Obama makes as Marxism.
There is no positive spin you can put on the leader of the Labour party openly asking a man with a turban if he will "get the Sikh vote out for Labour". It is racist on multiple levels.
Was it Mike who had a theory years ago that government approval was inversely correlated to petrol prices? Oil price rebounding at the worst possible time for the coalition if it is. Or it might just have been random statistical noise.
I would suggest it is certainly not helpful. If petrol prices had kept going down to the big sub £1.00 level, I think that would have generated a lot of positive headlines. Nothing to do with government per say, although I am sure Osborne would have been all over the media saying without government action on fuel escalator this would never have been possible and if nothing else it certainly make people feel a bit better about things.
If the Conservatives destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west, will we rename 8 May "Martin Day"?
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Some go Labour, some UKIP, some Green, some Tory in the SW - these aren't the urban yellow-red block switchers.
In non-LD seats I am assuming LD switchers are 39% to Lab, 19% to Con, 12% to Grn with 30% remaining. But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining. This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
This poll blows those figures out the water if it's correct.
Wording of question is "Thinking about your constituency and local MP..."
Yes - I missed that. I know now that Q3 refers to "your constituency and local MP" but I'd like to see all the questions and all the tables corresponding to those questions. It seems very odd for it to be so far out of line with the Ashcroft local polls Q2.
I am confused by this Labour policy on grandparents being able to share unpaid leave from work to look after grand kids. I thought the whole reason grandparents were increasingly been used by parents for child care etc was because they are retired AND DON'T WORK....and if they do work, are they likely to be in much better position to take unpaid leave than the kids parents?
I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
Aren't you willing to settle for Brent crude at $60 pb ?? As all Scots know, oil price is volatile. There is scope for it to rise more but also scope for it to fall again. Shale oil is not going to go away, nor is Iranian oil nor Iraqi nor Libyan and nor English oil.
Comments
in May, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
Interesting, very very interesting.
You've got to be a braver man than me to back the Lib Dems anywhere in the SW now.
I see the Lib Dem bus broke down again (maybe they should order a taxi)
Did anyone else notice, it looks like the Tories have more than 1 bus? Do labour (apart from the outrage pink one)?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Woolfe/status/588296691381624832
£10 for me.
I can see why people are deserting the LDs, but not why they are flocking to...the tories??? I thought those switchers were meant to go to labour...??
Isn't that what has been preached on here for four years?
Looks like a buy?
Farage promises to be good telly on Thursday night.
A more thoughtful Nit movement (I know, I know) might have reflected on this more before the Sindyref, and thereby not ended up campaigning - as in effect it eventually had to - on a platform of EU and sterling exit, but it won't matter, honest.
Neither Brussels nor any UK finance minister would tolerate having to have any sort of dealings with these twerps. It would be like getting divorced from a horrible partner, then continuing to share the house and letting them use your credit cards while they shriek abuse at you.
You win an argument by making it an easy feelgood decision for the other guy to accept your view, something the succession of Scotch Nit loonies we've have on here to a man have never understood. The feelgood decision for the English is to continue to piss these shrill delusional twerps off.
This poll is good news too I reckon for Labour in Bristol West !
I've popped a tenner on Yeovil off the back of it at any rate... don't want to go too mad, the Lib Dems are very very sticky.
They 20% they lost has predominantly gone to Labour +9 then UKIP +6 Tory +4 and Green +3.
The Tories are the enemy, the Lib Dem leadership are traitors
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32303686
Interestingly a leading Tory pointed me towards the 31% of housing association properties occupied by a retired person. And if they're retired they will almost certainly qualify for the full 70% discount.
Oh look, another bung to pensioners.
It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems could lose all their seats in the South-West, but hold on to seats in London and the SE such as Twickenham, Lewes, Kingston, etc.
Again...is that not a bit erhhh like racist...Imagine if he met a man, a white man, let call him Gareth, he works in IT...and ask him, are you going to make sure all you whities who work in IT are going to turn out and vote Labour...
When I meet somebody, regardless of their color, creed, religion, the first thing I don't think is I bet they speak for the everybody who appears to be look like them.
But then this is the party who had a special manifesto for non-whites and a leader who bought a Islamic prayer mat to cover up burn marks.
Bath
Cheltenham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset Mid and Poole North
Somerton and Frome
St Austell and Newquay
St Ives
Taunton Deane
Thornbury and Yate
Torbay
Wells
Yeovil
If you believe the polling, then the Tories are value at best price in every one of these.
Far, far too long, though the index helped a bit. Best graphics of the lot though - the 'record of delivery-promise of more' to start of each chapter worked well. Still, it was like a series of essays.
Fantastic charts (eg p.34 and 122) showing the difference between Labour years and Lib Dem years (rather than coalition years, or lib dem supporting years). Very amusing.
Defence of their record makes a lot of sense, although they deliberately don't make clear where a policy was down to them pushing for it or if it may have come from the other side, The need to finish the job suggests perhaps unintentionally that surely working with the Tories again would be best.
Safe standing football grounds, that's a relief.
Repealing 'parts' of the health and social care act (p.73). A bit indecisive, and harder to defend - why couldn't they amend it before it was brought forward if they didn't like those bits.
Going for the Green Vote seems a waste of energy, funnily enough.
Slipped in parts to talk about setting 'ambitious goals' (p.96), that is, unachievable and they know it. Also 'aiming to achieve' in a few places, to the same effect.
When did BME become BAME? Makes sense, but I must have missed it.
But in LD seats, LD switchers are 5% to Lab and 4% to Grn with 91% remaining.
This is based on Ashcroft constituency polls and tuned to add up to national and regional polls.
In other words the switch from LD to Con and Lab is large but is in non LD seats. I'm predicitng a number of LD holds in the SW.
I still cannot quite square UKIP as I perceive them and being against NHS privitisation and the bedroom tax. I guess I haven't caught up.
The party of NIMBYism?
Scrapping HS2 a good idea
2 year referendums? Interesting, though why 2 years and not 1, or 3?
Wording of question is "Thinking about your constituency and local MP..."
A very brave position.
Somehow he seems to be getting away with it. Frankly I think the press should be going ballistic over this - it is the perfect summary of Labour and Miliband's hypocrisy.
This poll is if anything worse for SW Lib Dems than the Scottish position.
Yeovil @ 10-3 looks like a small worthwhile punt anyway.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/
However, Guido says this predicts LibDems losing all 9 of their seats to Conservatives. I.e. Devon, Cornwall, and Somerset, but not Dorset, Avon and Gloucestershire.
Whatever. I've bet on Cheltenham and Bath before. These were my reasons:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/libdemgeddon-you-dont-want-to-miss-a-thing/
I will top up again now.
You have to think of the mentality of lib dem voters, a very small amount actually believe in the policies, A slightly larger amount of the vote is purely as a protest, a larger amount (the socks with sandals brigade) vote because "we should give someone else a chance they can't be as bad as the others" the latter are now being brought into the real world.
Lab: Serious, but lots of wasted words and poorly laid out.
Con: Going for positive message while also trying to increase fear of Labour. Slightly better presentation, but still pertty wordy.
LD: Detailed, but way too long, Presumably hoping people circulate the graphics, which were good.
Green: Fairly well laid out, creative, but I just cannot accept their view on so many things.
UKIP: Presentationally the best. Some good stuff, some not so good, didn't really leave much impact with me.
Maybe it was the length, maybe it was because it was the last one I had read, maybe it was because they are in government, but I found myself instinctively more skeptical of the LD manifesto though.
Ashcroft was nowhere near that on Question 2 which this poll sort of resembles.
You're an anti Miliband outrage machine. Like the Repubs in America who critique every move Obama makes as Marxism.
Australia, Canada and New Zealand all managed to transition from direct rule under a governor general to full independence, still within the Commonwealth, and with fully-sovereign Parliaments and a shared head of state. Maybe have a look at that path, and see what lessons can be learned.
Yes lost the referendum entirely because of Yes's tactics. It was winnable, but Yes blew it. Yes were Napoleon in the Waterloo campaign, reportedly a bit detached like he couldn't really believe he was there. One minute Elba, next minute Emperor again. Osborne and Broon were Wellington and Blucher, completely focused. The vow was Yes's Plancenoit.
Napoleon could have won Waterloo. He won three of the battles. Unfortunately they were the wrong three. Yes could have won Sindy but some dolt let the SNP do the thinking.
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/04/13/neocon-chaos-promotion-in-the-mideast/
I drop in and out of pb.com during the day, and don't always catch everything!
David 134
Ian 131
John 130
FFA requires agreement on how much Scotland contributes to Westminster's debt, how much to "UK Wide Spending on London Infrastructure", how much to Foreign and Commonwealth Office, how much to International Development, how much to Defense. It's actually a far more complicated position than Independence.
I made it five Tory gains with swings of 8-10 showing under Ashcroft last summer/autumn with the Tories plodding along at 30-31 in the polls.
new thread
I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
As all Scots know, oil price is volatile.
There is scope for it to rise more but also scope for it to fall again.
Shale oil is not going to go away, nor is Iranian oil nor Iraqi nor Libyan and nor English oil.