Mr. Sykes, for a Conservative you do seem to enjoy damning your own party.
MD, are you sure Mr Sykes is a Conservative? I ask, because some years ago I had an officially 'Conservative' poster, relentlessly criticising every policy the party leadership came up with, on a blog I ran. He turned out to be a Labour plant...and the tone/attitude of Mr Sykes is suspiciously similar.
For those who think Labour would never stoop so low, check out John O'Farrell's Things Can Only Get Better, where he admitted to being an officially 'Tory' plant who would change his mind after a Labour answer on a radio programme - and how ineptly it was done.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
Why do you think that German military occupation/hegemony over Europe and the occupation of the Channel coast would have been in British interests? Why do you think that the declared German Weltpolitik would have been in British interests?
I don't think that allying with France/Belgium/Russia against Germany/Austria served British interests.
I think the national interest is generally served by avoiding involvement in wars unless absolutely necessary. I don't think UK involvement in WW1 was necessary.
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
Since time immemorial - well, since we gave up trying to conquer France - the primary UK foreign policy consideration has been to avoid any one power dominating the continent. Whoever it is.
Spanish, Dutch, French, French, French, German, German, Russian.. And now the EU.
Correct in a nutshell. Add in control of the English Channel. HMS Warrior was the 'ultimate deterrent' of her day. She simply patrolled up and down the channel.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
Since time immemorial - well, since we gave up trying to conquer France - the primary UK foreign policy consideration has been to avoid any one power dominating the continent. Whoever it is.
Spanish, Dutch, French, French, French, German, German, Russian.. And now the EU.
Correct in a nutshell. Add in control of the English Channel. HMS Warrior was the 'ultimate deterrent' of her day. She simply patrolled up and down the channel.
We got married on HMS Warrior. ;-)
But it (and the sister ship Black Prince) were also rapidly outdated - I think within ten or so years.
I'm an ancient sites nut and seen all the amazing ones in Turkey [bar this one] and Egypt, and India.
I really fancy Jordan and Greece but there's so many to choose from. Troy was very basic - the oddest was Necropolis, literally a city of the dead in Turkey.
Miss Plato, you might be interested in the Greek art prog (part 2/3 is on BBC4 tonight at 9pm, I think), by the same chap who did the Roman one.
I think I saw one or two lost cities, but it didn't grab me (saw one in Egypt). Likewise, I lost interest in the South American kingdoms programme. The Lost Kingdoms of Africa was more interesting.
I'm an ancient sites nut and seen all the amazing ones in Turkey [bar this one] and Egypt, and India.
I really fancy Jordan and Greece but there's so many to choose from. Troy was very basic - the oddest was Necropolis, literally a city of the dead in Turkey.
Miss Plato, you might be interested in the Greek art prog (part 2/3 is on BBC4 tonight at 9pm, I think), by the same chap who did the Roman one.
I think I saw one or two lost cities, but it didn't grab me (saw one in Egypt). Likewise, I lost interest in the South American kingdoms programme. The Lost Kingdoms of Africa was more interesting.
So not seen Petra? Ooh, that's an omission....
I think I was on 86 countries last time I checked. Still got Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Liechtenstein if I want a quick road trip to pump it up.
Madagascar next on the list. I loved the cartoon, so....
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Mr. Sykes, for a Conservative you do seem to enjoy damning your own party.
MD, are you sure Mr Sykes is a Conservative? I ask, because some years ago I had an officially 'Conservative' poster, relentlessly criticising every policy the party leadership came up with, on a blog I ran. He turned out to be a Labour plant...and the tone/attitude of Mr Sykes is suspiciously similar.
For those who think Labour would never stoop so low, check out John O'Farrell's Things Can Only Get Better, where he admitted to being an officially 'Tory' plant who would change his mind after a Labour answer on a radio programme - and how ineptly it was done.
I can assure you that Mr. Sykes is a Conservative. He says on this forum what he thinks.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
Since time immemorial - well, since we gave up trying to conquer France - the primary UK foreign policy consideration has been to avoid any one power dominating the continent. Whoever it is.
Spanish, Dutch, French, French, French, German, German, Russian.. And now the EU.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
Why do you think that German military occupation/hegemony over Europe and the occupation of the Channel coast would have been in British interests? Why do you think that the declared German Weltpolitik would have been in British interests?
I don't think that allying with France/Belgium/Russia against Germany/Austria served British interests.
I think the national interest is generally served by avoiding involvement in wars unless absolutely necessary. I don't think UK involvement in WW1 was necessary.
Britain stayed out of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War in which France was humiliated.
FPT Re Reckless and Carswell campaigning in their constituencies
Sean_F said:
"Is there any need? The consensus here seems to be that the Conservatives are strolling to victory in each seat."
As it was before both by elections
The consensus on here will not tolerate anyone advising the Tories might not win., or are a bad value bet.
Richard Nabavi, a good guy that I have met and like, and I think, unusually for Tories on this site (Tissue price & Casino Royale excepted), knows his stuff betting wise, wrote a lengthy analysis on why the Tories would win Rochester by election, with the conclusion that they would win by between 3-10% I think. The praise lavished on him for this analysis was fulsome... he had said what they wanted to hear
I disagreed, said Reckless would win easily, and was ridiculed
Reckless won easily. People talked about something else
I was about one and half points too optimistic (on the Tory side) in the contest for the winning margin for Reckless.
That made me a helluva lot closer than most of the Kippers.
I am saying the Kippers will poll nine point something in the General. On that basis Reckless is not an MP (and neither is anyone except Carswell).
My entry in the pb.com election game was for one Kipper MP. Seeing nothing to change my mind on that.
Guessing games without betting odds or money staked don't really interest me
Just because I choose not to bet with YOU doesn't mean I choose not to bet....
Oh well you should have talked about that rather than the PB guessing games then!
From being tiny, I was filled with Roman and Viking history both by my mum and at school.
My first history teacher was a prehistory/Romans expert and we were immersed. Being in Newcastle - it brought it all to life - the roads and old settlements et al. I vividly recall the Newcastle 900 celebrations. That really put our heritage into context.
I'm an ancient sites nut and seen all the amazing ones in Turkey [bar this one] and Egypt, and India.
I really fancy Jordan and Greece but there's so many to choose from. Troy was very basic - the oddest was Necropolis, literally a city of the dead in Turkey.
Miss Plato, you might be interested in the Greek art prog (part 2/3 is on BBC4 tonight at 9pm, I think), by the same chap who did the Roman one.
I think I saw one or two lost cities, but it didn't grab me (saw one in Egypt). Likewise, I lost interest in the South American kingdoms programme. The Lost Kingdoms of Africa was more interesting.
Apparently Turkey do not have the same attitude that we have towards their architectural heritage. Which is a shame, as they have so much of it.
Mrs J's family come from Tarsus, (birthplace of St Paul), and as a child her mum would dig in the garden and find Roman coins. This was not seen as anything particularly noteworthy.
Her uncle would also take her fishing with explosives, but that is a different story ...
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Average for Labour, but not as bad as we might've been led to believe with all the talk of the supposed mess of the Welsh NHS.
Wales is really going to be a total snoozefest in terms of seats changing hands this election. Brecon & Radnorshire remains an underrated chance for a Tory gain, though.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
Since time immemorial - well, since we gave up trying to conquer France - the primary UK foreign policy consideration has been to avoid any one power dominating the continent. Whoever it is.
Spanish, Dutch, French, French, French, German, German, Russian.. And now the EU.
Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We 'had' to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
Since time immemorial - well, since we gave up trying to conquer France - the primary UK foreign policy consideration has been to avoid any one power dominating the continent. Whoever it is.
Spanish, Dutch, French, French, French, German, German, Russian.. And now the EU.
Correct in a nutshell. Add in control of the English Channel. HMS Warrior was the 'ultimate deterrent' of her day. She simply patrolled up and down the channel.
We got married on HMS Warrior. ;-)
But it (and the sister ship Black Prince) were also rapidly outdated - I think within ten or so years.
Speaking of delegations visiting ships, this always made me laugh.
Interesting that SNP, PC and GREEN leaders ('the coven') have ganged up on Farage for his HIV comments.
Can we expect a massive fight on this on Thursday, with Ed in the middle?
I imagine they'll all be ganging up on the PM, given he won't be there. His right to buy announcement yesterday was perfectly timed for giving the Lefties something to get their teeth stuck into.
Anyway, it seems to have unravelled now and been widely given the big thumbs down. And to add to the mess, it's given his opponents something to beat him up about that they didn't have up their sleeves 2 days ago.
You can say one thing about Dave, he sure knows how to not fight election campaigns.
If there was a dimly lit flickering hope of salvation on May 7th, I think the ill-conceived RTB extension policy has just extinguished it.
DC has not just opened the door to No 10 to EdM, he's ushered him right in there.
Game over.
Bob, I'm not sure you have this right. People don't care about detail, the RTB is popular with all but a few intellectuals who worry about how to pay for it. The question is how to get more houses and flats built so people currently stuck renting privately from unscrupulous landlords can move into housing association flats/houses with lower rents and the eventual ability to buy at a discount. I would support a big house building subsidy for housing associations in return for this new RTB policy.
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
Why do you think that German military occupation/hegemony over Europe and the occupation of the Channel coast would have been in British interests? Why do you think that the declared German Weltpolitik would have been in British interests?
I don't think that allying with France/Belgium/Russia against Germany/Austria served British interests.
I think the national interest is generally served by avoiding involvement in wars unless absolutely necessary. I don't think UK involvement in WW1 was necessary.
Britain stayed out of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War in which France was humiliated.
"France was humiliated" has such a nice ring to it. :-)
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A few years back Eddie Izzard did a great TV piece in which he went to Friesland and spoke to a Frisian farmer: Izzard in Old English, the farmer in Frisian. They managed two speak to each other pretty intelligibly.
Even though i find Eddie Izzard's politics repellant, and the way he puts them across epically annoyingly, he is quite funny and I actually find it quite hard to dislike him.
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
If Cardiff fits into the trends we've seen in the big English cities in recent years, then the swings to Labour in the Cardiff seats should be above the Wales average.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
Why do you think that German military occupation/hegemony over Europe and the occupation of the Channel coast would have been in British interests? Why do you think that the declared German Weltpolitik would have been in British interests?
I don't think that allying with France/Belgium/Russia against Germany/Austria served British interests.
I think the national interest is generally served by avoiding involvement in wars unless absolutely necessary. I don't think UK involvement in WW1 was necessary.
Britain stayed out of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War in which France was humiliated.
Been a while since there was a war "in which France was humiliated" didn't apply....
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
Overall, that's a 2% swing from Conservative to Labour; an 9% swing from Lib Dem to Labour; and a 7% swing from Lib Dem to Conservative.
If that were uniform, Labour would gain Cardiff Central, and Cardiff North, and the Conservatives would gain Brecon & Radnor.
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
Interesting that SNP, PC and GREEN leaders ('the coven') have ganged up on Farage for his HIV comments.
Can we expect a massive fight on this on Thursday, with Ed in the middle?
I imagine they'll all be ganging up on the PM, given he won't be there. His right to buy announcement yesterday was perfectly timed for giving the Lefties something to get their teeth stuck into.
Anyway, it seems to have unravelled now and been widely given the big thumbs down. And to add to the mess, it's given his opponents something to beat him up about that they didn't have up their sleeves 2 days ago.
You can say one thing about Dave, he sure knows how to not fight election campaigns.
If there was a dimly lit flickering hope of salvation on May 7th, I think the ill-conceived RTB extension policy has just extinguished it.
DC has not just opened the door to No 10 to EdM, he's ushered him right in there.
Game over.
Bob, I'm not sure you have this right. People don't care about detail, the RTB is popular with all but a few intellectuals who worry about how to pay for it. The question is how to get more houses and flats built so people currently stuck renting privately from unscrupulous landlords can move into housing association flats/houses with lower rents and the eventual ability to buy at a discount. I would support a big house building subsidy for housing associations in return for this new RTB policy.
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
I wouldn't call the Chartered Institute of Housing, the FT, the CBI and Jones Lang LaSalle lefties.
Mr. Doethur, not dissimilar things have happened here in the past.
Glad of your O'Farrell anecdote. His tedious modern history of Britain is one of very few books (and the only one given to me as a gift) I've abandoned after a short time in recent years.
Mr. Royale, cheers for that.
Mr. Me, give it time. The EU is in a horrendous strategic, economic position.
The single currency is as sensible and stable as a schizophrenic clown on LSD, it's being out-competed by South America and Asia, it's anti-democratic, opaque and unaccountable.
It'll take a long old while to fall, but fall it will. I'd be surprised (and depressed) if it outlasted me. The EU's a crock. You can forge an empire at the tip of a sword or unite a land through democratic will. Bureaucratic buggery is an implausible recipe for prolonged longevity.
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
If Cardiff fits into the trends we've seen in the big English cities in recent years, then the swings to Labour in the Cardiff seats should be above the Wales average.
Yeah I don't really expect that, I just wanted to make the SNP gag.
With UKIP on 13% I am tempted by the long-shot Tory gain potential (10/1-14/1) of these seats:
Alyn and Deeside Bridgend Clwyd South Delyn Gower Vale of Clwyd
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
I'm in Central. Labour "activity" more evident (though it's all going in the bin chez nous whoever is sending it) than Lib Dem. One Tory contact, zero plaid, UKIP or anyone else. Few more Plaid posters than I recall in the past but there really are a total footnote here in reality.
I noted someone said Labour were looking over their shoulders a bit at Cardiff West (maj 4.7k) which I cannot believe is an issue this time round at least, though that majority does seem to be eroding over time. It's dropped from around 15K to under 5K 1997-2010, and isn't much more now than when labour won it back from the inimitable Stefan Terlezki in 87. Demographics might not be working in the long term there for them. One to watch in future?
2/5 still available on the LDs failing to retake Montgomeryshire. A party which has lost almost three-quarters of their Welsh support, failing to win a new seat.
Yes, that reiterates the concerns I've been having on the strength of the Tories ground war operation.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
Doncaster was also famous at the time for having the most corrupt local authority in England, although I guess they've now been overtaken by Rotherham.
Yes, that reiterates the concerns I've been having on the strength of the Tories ground war operation.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
Wouldn't that fall foul of the spending limits?
FWIW I have the impression that the canvassing effort is a lot sharper and better organised than it was in 2010.
That looks very tight. The drop in the Lib Dem vote is enormous, but the Conservatives have gone backward too.
I've backed the Conservatives in this seat. The drop in their vote looked far too large on the Ashcroft poll and any real UKIP squeeze should see them home.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
The recent Nature study showed the British people are highly homogeneous and been present from, effectively, time immemorial with invading north sea raiders making little genetic impact. We are closer genetically to the French than Germans but really, as we always knew, we have most in common with the peoples of our own islands, despite the strange Spanish genes in Northern Wales.
A disappointment to our EU and immigration fanatics despite the spin the media tried to give the study.
Interesting that SNP, PC and GREEN leaders ('the coven') have ganged up on Farage for his HIV comments.
Can we expect a massive fight on this on Thursday, with Ed in the middle?
I imagine they'll all be ganging up on the PM, given he won't be there. His right to buy announcement yesterday was perfectly timed for giving the Lefties something to get their teeth stuck into.
Anyway, it seems to have unravelled now and been widely given the big thumbs down. And to add to the mess, it's given his opponents something to beat him up about that they didn't have up their sleeves 2 days ago.
You can say one thing about Dave, he sure knows how to not fight election campaigns.
If there was a dimly lit flickering hope of salvation on May 7th, I think the ill-conceived RTB extension policy has just extinguished it.
DC has not just opened the door to No 10 to EdM, he's ushered him right in there.
Game over.
Bob, I'm not sure you have this right. People don't care about detail, the RTB is popular with all but a few intellectuals who worry about how to pay for it. The question is how to get more houses and flats built so people currently stuck renting privately from unscrupulous landlords can move into housing association flats/houses with lower rents and the eventual ability to buy at a discount. I would support a big house building subsidy for housing associations in return for this new RTB policy.
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
I wouldn't call the Chartered Institute of Housing, the FT, the CBI and Jones Lang LaSalle lefties.
FT and CBI were also in favour of us joining the Euro.... Jones Lang LaSalle want high real estate values. The Chartered Institute of Housing has a socialist streak from its start who was a social reformer. Who interestingly was opposed to municipal provision of housing, believing it to be bureaucratic and impersonal. She was also opposed to welfare. A pity that the CIH suck on the public teat.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Interesting that SNP, PC and GREEN leaders ('the coven') have ganged up on Farage for his HIV comments.
Can we expect a massive fight on this on Thursday, with Ed in the middle?
I imagine they'll all be ganging up on the PM, given he won't be there. His right to buy announcement yesterday was perfectly timed for giving the Lefties something to get their teeth stuck into.
Anyway, it seems to have unravelled now and been widely given the big thumbs down. And to add to the mess, it's given his opponents something to beat him up about that they didn't have up their sleeves 2 days ago.
You can say one thing about Dave, he sure knows how to not fight election campaigns.
If there was a dimly lit flickering hope of salvation on May 7th, I think the ill-conceived RTB extension policy has just extinguished it.
DC has not just opened the door to No 10 to EdM, he's ushered him right in there.
Game over.
Bob, I'm not sure you have this right. People don't care about detail, the RTB is popular with all but a few intellectuals who worry about how to pay for it. The question is how to get more houses and flats built so people currently stuck renting privately from unscrupulous landlords can move into housing association flats/houses with lower rents and the eventual ability to buy at a discount. I would support a big house building subsidy for housing associations in return for this new RTB policy.
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
This.
All this supposed unravelling consists in fact of just the usual whining from lefties appalled at the prospect of the indentured Labour voters actually accumulating some wealth. We don't hear from these people, only from rich socialists who bitterly opposed council house sales and all forms of choice for the humble prole, who should just up and vote Labour for a lifetime of dependent poverty.
It has worked on the Scots, so you can't blame them for trying it, but you don't have to swallow it.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
The recent Nature study showed the British people are highly homogeneous and been present from, effectively, time immemorial with invading north sea raiders making little genetic impact. We are closer genetically to the French than Germans but really, as we always knew, we have most in common with the peoples of our own islands, despite the strange Spanish genes in Northern Wales.
A disappointment to our EU and immigration fanatics despite the spin the media tried to give the study.
"The team analysed the genomes of 6,209 people from continental Europe to understand their ancestors’ contributions to Britons’ ancestry.
This confirmed the flow of Anglo-Saxons from present-day Germany into Britain after the departure of the Romans in 410 ad. They interbred with local residents instead of replacing them wholly, as some historians and archaeologists have suggested.
Danish Vikings, who occupied Britain between the 700s and 1100s ad, by contrast, left little signature in most Britons’ genomes."
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
Plaid +3 (but then the 9% looked low). We could theoretically see no change in Wales at all. Which, on previous precedent, would mean PC sweep the board in 2020...
If Cardiff fits into the trends we've seen in the big English cities in recent years, then the swings to Labour in the Cardiff seats should be above the Wales average.
Yeah I don't really expect that, I just wanted to make the SNP gag.
With UKIP on 13% I am tempted by the long-shot Tory gain potential (10/1-14/1) of these seats:
Alyn and Deeside Bridgend Clwyd South Delyn Gower Vale of Clwyd
With no more evidence than my own eyes and instincts I could see the Valleys having UKIP inroads rather than Plaid. Not at this election but perhaps in future (if UKIP survive longer term).
In fairness Labour have a bit more of an A team in Cardiff compared to the impression I get in Scotland where I think the A team in the past still regarded London as where the real action was and acted accordingly, with dire consequences. I suspect Welsh Labour have learnt a lot from Scotland and it's notable that some of their senior figures here are giving off vibes of being less than enthusiastic about new powers on tax raising for instance. Oddly, I bet they are actually quite happy there's a stable and reasonable Tory vote in the mid 20's as that's enough to be nowhere near power but a healthy block helping Wales' devolution "getting out of hand" like Scotland's.
Funny old world really, in that Wales only just voted for devolution by a whisker on the coat tails of Scotland (the vote was a week later to get the full Scottish wake affect), and it's probably worked how Labour thought it would north of the border: Labour dominated administrations 100% of the time, Nats generally in a box, Tories in permanent opposition but not demonised (see above for usefulness).
In Scotland they succeeded over a generation in destroying the Tories as a meaningful force only to find they were sawing off the branch they were sitting on. "Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead". That'll get a good airing on May 8th. What a keeper that was.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A few years back Eddie Izzard did a great TV piece in which he went to Friesland and spoke to a Frisian farmer: Izzard in Old English, the farmer in Frisian. They managed two speak to each other pretty intelligibly.
Even though i find Eddie Izzard's politics repellant, and the way he puts them across epically annoyingly, he is quite funny and I actually find it quite hard to dislike him.
I agree. I think he is one of the finest observational comedians of the last 20 years.
OT @Morris_Dancer just been watching a fascinating prog about Hittites. Do you know much about them?
Mrs J is very fascinated by the Hittites, and her favourite necklace includes a Hittite symbol (the same as in the picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hittites )
Glasgow was a welsh kingdom.
Edinburgh was Anglo-Saxon
I was looking at a map of Anglo Saxon migration the other day.
Odd that the UK was allied against Germany in WW1. Within the EU you can see a north-european/germanic alliance.
A lot of Germans felt the same way. They were shocked that "England" could align themselves with Russia and France against Germany.
The recent Nature study showed the British people are highly homogeneous and been present from, effectively, time immemorial with invading north sea raiders making little genetic impact. We are closer genetically to the French than Germans but really, as we always knew, we have most in common with the peoples of our own islands, despite the strange Spanish genes in Northern Wales.
A disappointment to our EU and immigration fanatics despite the spin the media tried to give the study.
"The team analysed the genomes of 6,209 people from continental Europe to understand their ancestors’ contributions to Britons’ ancestry.
This confirmed the flow of Anglo-Saxons from present-day Germany into Britain after the departure of the Romans in 410 ad. They interbred with local residents instead of replacing them wholly, as some historians and archaeologists have suggested.
Danish Vikings, who occupied Britain between the 700s and 1100s ad, by contrast, left little signature in most Britons’ genomes."
Interesting that SNP, PC and GREEN leaders ('the coven') have ganged up on Farage for his HIV comments.
Can we expect a massive fight on this on Thursday, with Ed in the middle?
I imagine they'll all be ganging up on the PM, given he won't be there. His right to buy announcement yesterday was perfectly timed for giving the Lefties something to get their teeth stuck into.
Anyway, it seems to have unravelled now and been widely given the big thumbs down. And to add to the mess, it's given his opponents something to beat him up about that they didn't have up their sleeves 2 days ago.
You can say one thing about Dave, he sure knows how to not fight election campaigns.
If there was a dimly lit flickering hope of salvation on May 7th, I think the ill-conceived RTB extension policy has just extinguished it.
DC has not just opened the door to No 10 to EdM, he's ushered him right in there.
Game over.
Bob, I'm not sure you have this right. People don't care about detail, the RTB is popular with all but a few intellectuals who worry about how to pay for it. The question is how to get more houses and flats built so people currently stuck renting privately from unscrupulous landlords can move into housing association flats/houses with lower rents and the eventual ability to buy at a discount. I would support a big house building subsidy for housing associations in return for this new RTB policy.
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
I wouldn't call the Chartered Institute of Housing, the FT, the CBI and Jones Lang LaSalle lefties.
FT and CBI were also in favour of us joining the Euro.... Jones Lang LaSalle want high real estate values. The Chartered Institute of Housing has a socialist streak from its start who was a social reformer. Who interestingly was opposed to municipal provision of housing, believing it to be bureaucratic and impersonal. She was also opposed to welfare. A pity that the CIH suck on the public teat.
Pro and Con Euro membership didn't divide neatly down Left and Right though. Ken Clarke and Hestletine were Pro and Austin Mitchel and Dennis Skinner were anti.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
For clarity you're an independent baby eater.
Quite right too, those pesky independent babies threaten the well-behaved ones.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
I am the same as you, and don't like being labelled a PB Tory, but I try not to split hairs about it too much!
Off topic, looking at the LD manifesto, there's quite a bit of overlap with the Tory one. I'm sure that's not by accident.
I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.
"such as a massive migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
It would be interesting if they could date that.
They say it's not the Norman invasion.
"But the geneticists see no trace of ... the Norman Conquest of England in 1066. ... also point to events that have not been recorded, such as a major migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
I am the same as you, and don't like being labelled a PB Tory, but I try not to split hairs about it too much!
I think the problem is that a large percentage of people on here are big supporters of the blue team, red team, yellow team etc...but for those of us who aren't a dedicated follower of any particular one it appears to cause confusion. Not sure why, as a large percentage of the population aren't dedicated disciples and change their mind.
I've updated my latest UK-Elect forecast (which incidentally does take account of which candidates are standing): UK-Elect forecast (April 15th) It includes detailed a forecast for every constituency.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
For clarity you're an independent baby eater.
Quite right too, those pesky independent babies threaten the well-behaved ones.
The difficulty is that well-behaved babies are such a rarity that I've found they're only available at the finest restaurants and at frightful prices.
The same goes for Scottish Liberal Democrats. Time was when they would be seen frolicking en masse across the glens with their pockets stuffed with Focus leaflets grazing on broccoli quiche. Now they're rarer than a UKIP manifesto that isn't labelled as "drivel" by Nigel.
Off topic, looking at the LD manifesto, there's quite a bit of overlap with the Tory one. I'm sure that's not by accident.
I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.
Controversial constitutional reform should not fully bankable for one side if it isn't for the other.
A Lords Reform referendum in exchange for an EU referendum. That's like for like.
A Lords Reform referendum should be incredibly easy to win so long as a decent proposal for the Lords is put to the public - if a dog's breakfast of a reform (like 15 year terms) is proposed then it deserves to be rejected.
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
For clarity you're an independent baby eater.
Quite right too, those pesky independent babies threaten the well-behaved ones.
The difficulty is that well-behaved babies are such a rarity that I've found they're only available at the finest restaurants and at frightful prices.
The same goes for Scottish Liberal Democrats. Time was when they would be seen frolicking en masse across the glens with their pockets stuffed with Focus leaflets grazing on broccoli quiche. Now they're rarer than a UKIP manifesto that isn't labelled as "drivel" by Nigel.
Yes, that reiterates the concerns I've been having on the strength of the Tories ground war operation.
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
Once I read the words 'incumbency' and Mike Smithson I stopped reading.
Bearing in mind Mike's grubby little vote deal I think he forfeited the right to talk about incumbent MP's.
Bravo, sir! Someone has to make a stand for decency and the British way of life. It's just a shame that you are the only poster out there who is ridiculous enough to do it.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
''Because you're an impartial and positive judge of the PM. Remind me when you last sang his praises?''
Bob's comments are so unspoofably pessimistic one suspects that they are not his real opinions.
He is the Conservative antimatter to Southam Observer.
Surely not... Bob is either a spoof or the most miserable bloke on the planet
SO is very reasonable and level-headed on most matters, just a tad pessimistic about Ed'd chances. SO always worth a read, Bob's posts are totally predictable and tedious
Mr. Sykes, forgot to mention, I do apologise for my mistake in thinking you a Conservative. I know it's irksome when people make mistakes of that nature.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
Not at all. I am "a conservative" just not a member of "the Conservative Party". That's the distinction I was making, I have no problem with being labelled a Tory!
For clarity you're an independent baby eater.
Quite right too, those pesky independent babies threaten the well-behaved ones.
The difficulty is that well-behaved babies are such a rarity that I've found they're only available at the finest restaurants and at frightful prices.
The same goes for Scottish Liberal Democrats. Time was when they would be seen frolicking en masse across the glens with their pockets stuffed with Focus leaflets grazing on broccoli quiche. Now they're rarer than a UKIP manifesto that isn't labelled as "drivel" by Nigel.
Comments
For those who think Labour would never stoop so low, check out John O'Farrell's Things Can Only Get Better, where he admitted to being an officially 'Tory' plant who would change his mind after a Labour answer on a radio programme - and how ineptly it was done.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allies_of_World_War_I
I think the national interest is generally served by avoiding involvement in wars unless absolutely necessary. I don't think UK involvement in WW1 was necessary.
Bob's comments are so unspoofably pessimistic one suspects that they are not his real opinions.
Labour 40%
Conservative 26%
UKIP 13%
Plaid Cymru 12%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Green 4%
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-04-15/poll-shows-labour-maintaining-lead-in-wales/
As an aside, been out of the country for 6 months but now living in Cardiff North and working in Cardiff Central. Both Labour gains, Lib Dems far less active than 2010 in Cardiff central. Cardiff north could be closer than expected but still very likely Labour gain.
But it (and the sister ship Black Prince) were also rapidly outdated - I think within ten or so years.
Madagascar next on the list. I loved the cartoon, so....
So now what?
8/1
Oh well you should have talked about that rather than the PB guessing games then!
My first history teacher was a prehistory/Romans expert and we were immersed. Being in Newcastle - it brought it all to life - the roads and old settlements et al. I vividly recall the Newcastle 900 celebrations. That really put our heritage into context.
Wales is really going to be a total snoozefest in terms of seats changing hands this election. Brecon & Radnorshire remains an underrated chance for a Tory gain, though.
Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We 'had' to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought_hoax
A few lefties from the National Housing Federation saying this is the end of the world doesn't make this a bad policy.
https://youtu.be/A-yZNMWFqvM
If that were uniform, Labour would gain Cardiff Central, and Cardiff North, and the Conservatives would gain Brecon & Radnor.
The blaze that killed 56 football fans at Bradford City’s Valley Parade ground in 1985 was just one of at least nine fires at businesses owned by or associated with the club’s then chairman, according to extraordinary evidence published for the first time.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/15/bradford-fire-stafford-heginbotham-martin-fletcher?CMP=share_btn_tw
Glad of your O'Farrell anecdote. His tedious modern history of Britain is one of very few books (and the only one given to me as a gift) I've abandoned after a short time in recent years.
Mr. Royale, cheers for that.
Mr. Me, give it time. The EU is in a horrendous strategic, economic position.
The single currency is as sensible and stable as a schizophrenic clown on LSD, it's being out-competed by South America and Asia, it's anti-democratic, opaque and unaccountable.
It'll take a long old while to fall, but fall it will. I'd be surprised (and depressed) if it outlasted me. The EU's a crock. You can forge an empire at the tip of a sword or unite a land through democratic will. Bureaucratic buggery is an implausible recipe for prolonged longevity.
Edited extra bit: Mr. M, I did not know that.
http://www.donny.co.uk/Doncaster/news/index.php3?ID=1400
With UKIP on 13% I am tempted by the long-shot Tory gain potential (10/1-14/1) of these seats:
Alyn and Deeside
Bridgend
Clwyd South
Delyn
Gower
Vale of Clwyd
Ashcroft Lib Dem Holds;
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Brecon-Radnorshire-poll-tables-Nov-14.pdf
Turnout could be a problem for lab.
I noted someone said Labour were looking over their shoulders a bit at Cardiff West (maj 4.7k) which I cannot believe is an issue this time round at least, though that majority does seem to be eroding over time. It's dropped from around 15K to under 5K 1997-2010, and isn't much more now than when labour won it back from the inimitable Stefan Terlezki in 87. Demographics might not be working in the long term there for them. One to watch in future?
Hmmn. Labour MP standing down. Parts of Gower are VERY smart.
I am however a liberally minded "one nation conservative", and have without fail voted Tory in every local, national and euro poll since I was 18.
The Conservative Party and its leaders, MPs and activists however frustrate me immensely and unfailingly.
I was doing some research, and noticed this stat.
In 1999 on the same day, both Plaid Cymru and SNP polled 28% something in their respective elections to their assembly/parliament.
But look at them now
With the money they have, they should be putting up two dozen keen activists in hotels in their top 40 defensive targets for the next three and a half weeks and have them out leafleting, canvassing and door knocking day and night.
FWIW I have the impression that the canvassing effort is a lot sharper and better organised than it was in 2010.
A disappointment to our EU and immigration fanatics despite the spin the media tried to give the study.
http://www.unz.com/gnxp/cuius-regio-eius-religio-in-anglo-saxon-england/
Jones Lang LaSalle want high real estate values.
The Chartered Institute of Housing has a socialist streak from its start who was a social reformer. Who interestingly was opposed to municipal provision of housing, believing it to be bureaucratic and impersonal. She was also opposed to welfare. A pity that the CIH suck on the public teat.
[Too late to add as an edited extra bit to my previous post].
All this supposed unravelling consists in fact of just the usual whining from lefties appalled at the prospect of the indentured Labour voters actually accumulating some wealth. We don't hear from these people, only from rich socialists who bitterly opposed council house sales and all forms of choice for the humble prole, who should just up and vote Labour for a lifetime of dependent poverty.
It has worked on the Scots, so you can't blame them for trying it, but you don't have to swallow it.
"The team analysed the genomes of 6,209 people from continental Europe to understand their ancestors’ contributions to Britons’ ancestry.
This confirmed the flow of Anglo-Saxons from present-day Germany into Britain after the departure of the Romans in 410 ad. They interbred with local residents instead of replacing them wholly, as some historians and archaeologists have suggested.
Danish Vikings, who occupied Britain between the 700s and 1100s ad, by contrast, left little signature in most Britons’ genomes."
http://www.nature.com/news/uk-mapped-out-by-genetic-ancestry-1.17136
In fairness Labour have a bit more of an A team in Cardiff compared to the impression I get in Scotland where I think the A team in the past still regarded London as where the real action was and acted accordingly, with dire consequences. I suspect Welsh Labour have learnt a lot from Scotland and it's notable that some of their senior figures here are giving off vibes of being less than enthusiastic about new powers on tax raising for instance. Oddly, I bet they are actually quite happy there's a stable and reasonable Tory vote in the mid 20's as that's enough to be nowhere near power but a healthy block helping Wales' devolution "getting out of hand" like Scotland's.
Funny old world really, in that Wales only just voted for devolution by a whisker on the coat tails of Scotland (the vote was a week later to get the full Scottish wake affect), and it's probably worked how Labour thought it would north of the border: Labour dominated administrations 100% of the time, Nats generally in a box, Tories in permanent opposition but not demonised (see above for usefulness).
In Scotland they succeeded over a generation in destroying the Tories as a meaningful force only to find they were sawing off the branch they were sitting on. "Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead". That'll get a good airing on May 8th. What a keeper that was.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/nicholas-wade-study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons/
"such as a massive migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
Very true, that score for the Conservatives in the mid 20s is just about perfect for Labour in Wales.
It's the book of Revelation from the Bible that gives our usage of the word 'Armageddon'.
@murrisonMP: Pious Lib Dems saying they'll be Labour's brain or Conservatives' heart. Ha! There's a less decorous bit of anatomy to describe this.
I suspect it will come down to what the Tories can trade on voting and Lords reform (fully bankable) and mitigated welfare cuts, to trade against IHT cut, RtB extension and the EU vote.
They say it's not the Norman invasion.
"But the geneticists see no trace of ... the Norman Conquest of England in 1066. ... also point to events that have not been recorded, such as a major migration from northern France that accounts for about one-third of the ancestry of the average person in Britain."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/science/study-reveals-genetic-path-of-modern-britons.html
Original Normans displaced by the Vikings taking Normandy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Normandy#Scandinavian_invasions
Bearing in mind Mike's grubby little vote deal I think he forfeited the right to talk about incumbent MP's.
The same goes for Scottish Liberal Democrats. Time was when they would be seen frolicking en masse across the glens with their pockets stuffed with Focus leaflets grazing on broccoli quiche. Now they're rarer than a UKIP manifesto that isn't labelled as "drivel" by Nigel.
A Lords Reform referendum in exchange for an EU referendum. That's like for like.
A Lords Reform referendum should be incredibly easy to win so long as a decent proposal for the Lords is put to the public - if a dog's breakfast of a reform (like 15 year terms) is proposed then it deserves to be rejected.
Paul Waugh retweeted
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV · 56m56 minutes ago
Have been passed leaked internal polling for Labour in Hull East, showing UKIP only 7% behind @KarlTurnerMP. No verification of source tho.
SO is very reasonable and level-headed on most matters, just a tad pessimistic about Ed'd chances. SO always worth a read, Bob's posts are totally predictable and tedious