politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s still a huge gap facing the Tories in England and W
Comments
-
Mr Dancer, "Prasannan" means "the smiling one"Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, but what does 'Prasannan' mean?
(and is actually my dad's given name)0 -
My London contact reckons the following:
Further down the list = More likely to drop.
Brent Central (Lab gain from LD)
Hendon (Lab gain from Con)
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con)
Brentford & Isleworth (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield North (Lab gain from Con)
Ealing Central (Lab gain from Con)
Old Southwark & Bermondsey (Lab gain from LD)
Harrow East (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield Southgate (Lab gain from Con)
Ilford North (Lab gain from Con).
Con Holds: Finchley & Golders Green; Battersea.0 -
It's even more student union tripe if you just loudly shout down any benefit. I have not heard a convincing argument with any substance to suggest any real people will suffer.Philip_Thompson said:
How will real people benefit by the Treasury losing money from this Non Dom change?DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
Its student union politics of making noise based on buzzwords without trying to be serious whatsoever.
Just loud shouting from the same people who signed the letter as they didnt want their Yachts sold to pay for normal families
0 -
agreed. Of the 4 they are losing 3 are within Labour's top 25 Tory targets and the other Harrow is going to be different due to London factors. At the same time Pudsey is within the top 25 and isn't going Labour's way. 30ish Lab gains from Tories could be the ceiling at the moment.TGOHF said:
Yes not bad for the Cons those polls - difficult to see Labour making those 50+ blue gains they need.BenM said:
Better for the Tories the further out from London you go. Bit of an incumbency bonus showing through here for first time?Sandpit said:Interesting - swings between 0.5% and 5.5%. Con>Lab
This is way too close to call.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/585818780204408832/photo/1
0 -
None of those policies are coherent, workable and in the case of the last two they will probably lower the tax take.BenM said:
Nothing will lock in higher energy prices than lashing ourselves to fossil fuels, the policy of UKIP.nigel4england said:
They are all utter bollocks, all three of them.DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
The Energy Price freeze is the quickest way to higher prices, the non dom thing has proved to be a fiasco within 24 hours and combined with the 50p tax hike will reduce the tax take, thus making less available for Labour to waste on the NHS.
If you want to punish people for getting on in life then vote for Ed, if you don't want to reduce the tax take then vote for anyone else.
Outside the tiny Guido clique the non dom policy is a universal hit.
And the 50p rate will certainly raise revenues, when it is given a chance to do so rather than having its abolition conveniently pre-announced.
So that's 0/3 there - good going.
I only score 0/3 if you want to punish people, I score 3/3 if you put country before party.0 -
How can Labour salvage the nondomnishambles? Rewrite history
@politicshome: Ed Balls tells BBC News his January non-dom comments about "people coming here for short periods of time", eg students and businesspeople.0 -
Dr. Prasannan, interesting naming approach.
According to nominative determinism, you should be a cheerful Conservative.0 -
"It will cost money" - That is a convincing and substantial cost.DennisBets said:
It's even more student union tripe if you just loudly shout down any benefit. I have not heard a convincing argument with any substance to suggest any real people will suffer.Philip_Thompson said:
How will real people benefit by the Treasury losing money from this Non Dom change?DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
Its student union politics of making noise based on buzzwords without trying to be serious whatsoever.
Just loud shouting from the same people who signed the letter as they didnt want their Yachts sold to pay for normal families
Didn't realise Ed Balls didn't want his Yacht sold.0 -
Harrow East (VI of voters who voted last time)
Con 190
Lab 180
Labour seem to need first timers and 'couldn't be bothered in 2010' to turn up.
0 -
Bus them in, if necessary.
If you look at ashcroft on whether people have been contacted by one party or the other, Labour are ahead in every constituency.
Given their available cash, the tories might be planning a very big, very late push. Or they are just inefficient/lazy...0 -
Increasing the price of energy is the _objective_ of HMG energy policy, under both the current government and the previous Labour gov't.BenM said:
Nothing will lock in higher energy prices than lashing ourselves to fossil fuels, the policy of UKIP.nigel4england said:
They are all utter bollocks, all three of them.DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
The Energy Price freeze is the quickest way to higher prices, the non dom thing has proved to be a fiasco within 24 hours and combined with the 50p tax hike will reduce the tax take, thus making less available for Labour to waste on the NHS.
If you want to punish people for getting on in life then vote for Ed, if you don't want to reduce the tax take then vote for anyone else.
The theory is that higher prices will change behaviour towards using less energy.0 -
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con) rubbishPulpstar said:My London contact reckons the following:
Further down the list = More likely to drop.
Brent Central (Lab gain from LD)
Hendon (Lab gain from Con)
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con)
Brentford & Isleworth (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield North (Lab gain from Con)
Ealing Central (Lab gain from Con)
Old Southwark & Bermondsey (Lab gain from LD)
Harrow East (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield Southgate (Lab gain from Con)
Ilford North (Lab gain from Con).
Con Holds: Finchley & Golders Green; Battersea.
0 -
Polls point towards Con most seats, but not by nearly enough.
Progressive forces > 323...0 -
0
-
Pulpstar said:
This might sound a bit like aftertiming but I'm not surprised to see Morecambe and Lunesdale go back Labour - the NW is a strong area for them, think I'm on Blackpool and Stockton here but idk...
I'm avoiding Morecambe personally.
Probably wise. Still cold at this time of year!
I must say Ed’s steady series of “ideas" is, IMHO, making things unnecessarily difficult for himself. They often SOUND good, but a little thought ......
Taxing non-doms is probably the least bad.0 -
I'd expect the Conservatives to hold both Southgate and Ilford North. I think Harrow East and Bermondsey are TCTC.Pulpstar said:My London contact reckons the following:
Further down the list = More likely to drop.
Brent Central (Lab gain from LD)
Hendon (Lab gain from Con)
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con)
Brentford & Isleworth (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield North (Lab gain from Con)
Ealing Central (Lab gain from Con)
Old Southwark & Bermondsey (Lab gain from LD)
Harrow East (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield Southgate (Lab gain from Con)
Ilford North (Lab gain from Con).
Con Holds: Finchley & Golders Green; Battersea.
0 -
Eh? Students don't tend to have oversea's income, so non-dom doesn't impact upon them at all.Scott_P said:How can Labour salvage the nondomnishambles? Rewrite history
@politicshome: Ed Balls tells BBC News his January non-dom comments about "people coming here for short periods of time", eg students and businesspeople.0 -
He's such a prick.Scott_P said:How can Labour salvage the nondomnishambles? Rewrite history
@politicshome: Ed Balls tells BBC News his January non-dom comments about "people coming here for short periods of time", eg students and businesspeople.
How long would someone last in a job outside politics, with such an unerring ability to mangle reality?0 -
Obvious error is obvious Lab Gain from Lib DemTCPoliticalBetting said:
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con) rubbishPulpstar said:My London contact reckons the following:
Further down the list = More likely to drop.
Brent Central (Lab gain from LD)
Hendon (Lab gain from Con)
Hornsey & Wood Green (Lab gain from Con)
Brentford & Isleworth (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield North (Lab gain from Con)
Ealing Central (Lab gain from Con)
Old Southwark & Bermondsey (Lab gain from LD)
Harrow East (Lab gain from Con)
Enfield Southgate (Lab gain from Con)
Ilford North (Lab gain from Con).
Con Holds: Finchley & Golders Green; Battersea. 0 -
They don't have to be workable or coherent, they have to look good for 48 hours. In substance here is little between government policy and Ed's comments about a review (rather than the headline grabbing "abolition") - David Gauke spoke of a reassessment and the levy came from the then Shadow Chancellor GO...nigel4england said:
None of those policies are coherent, workable and in the case of the last two they will probably lower the tax take.BenM said:
Nothing will lock in higher energy prices than lashing ourselves to fossil fuels, the policy of UKIP.nigel4england said:
They are all utter bollocks, all three of them.DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
The Energy Price freeze is the quickest way to higher prices, the non dom thing has proved to be a fiasco within 24 hours and combined with the 50p tax hike will reduce the tax take, thus making less available for Labour to waste on the NHS.
If you want to punish people for getting on in life then vote for Ed, if you don't want to reduce the tax take then vote for anyone else.
Outside the tiny Guido clique the non dom policy is a universal hit.
And the 50p rate will certainly raise revenues, when it is given a chance to do so rather than having its abolition conveniently pre-announced.
So that's 0/3 there - good going.
I only score 0/3 if you want to punish people, I score 3/3 if you put country before party.0 -
Mr. Dancer, you mean something like this:Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, interesting naming approach.
According to nominative determinism, you should be a cheerful Conservative.
"The Conservatives won (in aggregate) the wards making up Ilford North in the Redbridge Council local elections last year!"0 -
Not bad for a Blairite!Plato said:If you haven't had fun with this
I got 70% in the 'How Tory are you?' quiz. Take it here: t.co/BMshjFh8fK#SunNation via @SunNation
0 -
Mr Dancer, energy companies take the piss, ask the electorate in all the marginals if that is true and they will say yes. Your irrelevant quote of ancient socioeconomics merely proves you live in a river punting lacrosse loving fantasy world.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Bets, the freezing of commodity prices was known to be foolishness which could lead to shortages or even famine in the 4th century AD (Ammianus Marcellinus lambasted Julian the Apostate, of whom he was generally in favour, for just such a policy).
The people voting and suffering in this election do not find this important, they worry about take home pay and outgoing expenses.0 -
52% of 2010 Lib Dems switch to Labour in the Hove poll.Casino_Royale said:Hove looks odd with the double-digit (+10) jump in Labour vote. A bit fishy and out of kilter with the rest.
In a lot of the other seats Labour's advantage over the Tories in picking up 2010 Lib Dems is much narrower.0 -
The non dom bollocks didn't look good for 48 minutesGrandiose said:
They don't have to be workable or coherent, they have to look good for 48 hours. In substance here is little between government policy and Ed's comments about a review (rather than the headline grabbing "abolition") - David Gauke spoke of a reassessment and the levy came from the then Shadow Chancellor GO...nigel4england said:
None of those policies are coherent, workable and in the case of the last two they will probably lower the tax take.BenM said:
Nothing will lock in higher energy prices than lashing ourselves to fossil fuels, the policy of UKIP.nigel4england said:
They are all utter bollocks, all three of them.DennisBets said:Energy Price freeze, non dom tax crackdown, 50p rate of income tax
No wonder the Tories are thrashing about, Dave's same old line of keep it steady Ed's a bit of a drip is looking painfully exposed.
Labour are causing some serious ruptions which will appeal to everyday people in those grass root wards Labour need to win and the Tories know it.
S Thanet, Thurrock, Ilford N, Ipswich, Dudley's, Norwich
Cut away the Tory jeers and these are real policies for real people.
The Energy Price freeze is the quickest way to higher prices, the non dom thing has proved to be a fiasco within 24 hours and combined with the 50p tax hike will reduce the tax take, thus making less available for Labour to waste on the NHS.
If you want to punish people for getting on in life then vote for Ed, if you don't want to reduce the tax take then vote for anyone else.
Outside the tiny Guido clique the non dom policy is a universal hit.
And the 50p rate will certainly raise revenues, when it is given a chance to do so rather than having its abolition conveniently pre-announced.
So that's 0/3 there - good going.
I only score 0/3 if you want to punish people, I score 3/3 if you put country before party.0 -
new thread0
-
And Ed will reduce the former and increase the latterDennisBets said:The people voting and suffering in this election do not find this important, they worry about take home pay and outgoing expenses.
0 -
#changethetune number one trending on twitter.
Kippers must be spitting bricks being shown to be part of the LibLabConKip.0 -
He'd be a perfect marketeer.TheWatcher said:
He's such a prick.Scott_P said:How can Labour salvage the nondomnishambles? Rewrite history
@politicshome: Ed Balls tells BBC News his January non-dom comments about "people coming here for short periods of time", eg students and businesspeople.
How long would someone last in a job outside politics, with such an unerring ability to mangle reality?
Anyone who refers to him/her-self as a 'marketeer' should be the first against the wall.
I've had someone say this to me:
"I'm not a salesman! I'm a marketeer!"0 -
Actually, that sounds like Labour party behavior.BenM said:
Bradby has committed heresy by attacking the tribe.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?BenM said:Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
That Tom Bradby?
He must be shunned, pilloried and be made to pay!0 -
Mike: the seat numbers are missing from this page.0
