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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s still a huge gap facing the Tories in England and Wales where almost all the key LAB-CON battlegrounds are
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(Apologies for being lazy!)
Perhaps it's a new version of Poisoned Lasagne? Didn't it take Chelsea FC down once too?
NI 100k people per seat
England 99.4k people per seat
Scotland 89.7k people per seat
Wales 76.6 people per seat
technically Scotland should have 6 seats less and Wales 10 less.
Labour believe in fairness, but they are economically gormless.
I think you'll get 8 from the Lib Dems in England & Wales, which means 45 gains from the Tories in England.
Clear lines.
We've yet to have a really huge cock up from Killer Burnham in this campaign. Maybe that'll be the token mis-step in Labour's otherwise gloriously coherent and assured pitch.
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 SNP and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 227, so they only need to make 5 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
The UK might be unique in incorporating non-dom status into its tax system, but plenty of other countries allow foreigners to reside there and not pay any tax on their foreign earnings. Switzerland is a notable example. At least, thanks to Osborne, we impose a levy.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
It wouldn't be a five year coalition, maybe a 2 year coalition, with a break clause.
I forgot to add the DUP into that as well, they will back whomever will offer them enough pork, and the Northern Emerald Islanders are cheap, relatively speaking
For those numbers to work out the LDs need to be a lot more successful in their defences against LAB than some of the Ashcroft polling suggests
This after all would be the incumbent government.
Look at the seats. When Labour was roughly 5%+ ahead in the polls, Ashcroft was showing Labour only capable of taking 39 Tory seats. Mood music on the ground is indicating the Tories are doing better in some of these seats than the polls would suggest. Only last night on the TV news, Stockton South was reported to be stronger for the Tories and if the Tories are possibly holding their 6th most marginal seat, where is Labour's 55 gains going to come from?
http://tinyurl.com/L1ckMyLovePump
You really need to stop arguing with the blue boys and girls.
They have the wisdom of Con Home, Guido, and the right wing press on their side, so obviously they are the true measure of how the country thinks.
(or not? DYOR)
SNP + PC + SDLP + Green + Labour + Respect -> 323 is Ed PM, any less is not.
You have form on wildly exaggerating the Tory position. I could post links to some of you articles ahead of GE2010.
"Labour's non-dom donors include: (will EdM have a conscience and instrcu payment the tax avoided)?
Lord Gulam Noon who has donated £882,326 to the Labour Party, including £116,000 under Ed Miliband. He was a non-dom until April 2010, when he was appointed to a senior fundraising role in the Labour Party.
Lakshmi Mittal has donated £5.1 million to the Labour Party. He is a British citizen but has non-dom status He is a British citizen – but has non-dom status.
Sri Lankan-born business tycoon Sir Christopher Ondaatje has donated £1.7 million to the Labour Party .
Mahmoud Khayami, an Iranian-born car manufacturing boss, has donated £835,000 to the Labour Party.
Hedge fund tycoon William Bollinger also donated £510,000 to the Labour Party while a non-dom."
Also on Zero hours contracts:
68 Labour MPs have employees on these contracts.
'@MrHarryCole: Ed Balls hiding behind Shabana Mahmood, who is currently getting machine gunned on #BBCDP #NonDomnishambles'
Balls f_cks up and then hides behind the office junior.
The Sun really do want to get under their skin this time.
Confuses the message, y'see
Guido
#StayTuned We've run the BS detector over @edballsmp latest denial. Hard evidence coming...
Anyway, Labour suddenly back to a 1.6% lead! Last time they had an end-of-week lead of 1.6% was 18th January!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585149148980187136
As I understand it a non-dom pays tax in the normal way on income they earn in the UK and any foreign income they bring to the UK. They do not pay tax on income they earn outside the UK if they don't bring the money to the UK (and hence cannot spend it in the UK). However, if they earn more than £2,000pa outside the UK they lose their personal allowance and pay an annual charge of £30k or £50k. Alternatively they can opt to pay UK tax on that income which they may be able to reclaim on the basis that they have been taxed twice - both in the UK and in the country where the income was earned.
I may be missing something but I don't see any shocking loopholes there.
'The story is non Doms not what someone said once'
The story is about the two clowns at the top of the Labour party.
1. North Warwickshire Majority 54 (0.1%)
3. Thurrock Majority 92 (0.2%)
4. Hendon Majority 106 (0.2%)
6. Cardiff North Majority 194 (0.4%)
7. Sherwood Majority 214 (0.4%)
9. Broxtowe Majority 389 (0.7%)
10. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 333 (0.8%)
13. Amber Valley Majority 536 (1.2%)
14. Waveney Majority 769 (1.5%)
15. Wolverhampton South West Majority 691 (1.7%)
18. Carlisle Majority 853 (2%)
19. Stroud Majority 1299 (2.2%)
20. Weaver Vale Majority 991 (2.3%)
21. Lincoln Majority 1058 (2.3%)
23. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 1149 (2.6%)
24. Dewsbury Majority 1526 (2.8%)
25. Warrington South Majority 1553 (2.8%)
26. Bedford Majority 1353 (3%)
27. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 1328 (3.1%)
29. Corby Majority 1895 (3.5%)
31. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 1958 (3.6%)
32. Hove Majority 1868 (3.8%)
33. Enfield North Majority 1692 (3.8%)
34. Hastings & Rye Majority 1993 (4%)
36. Ipswich Majority 2079 (4.4%)
37. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 2023 (4.6%)
38. Nuneaton Majority 2069 (4.6%)
Are all favoured to be won by Labour - We notice the likes of Stockton as they are the exception rather than the rule.
You can push further down the list in the Northwest and London too.
Roger,
"Ps I'm surprised anyone thinks it's even interesting to a bored public what Balls said."
I agree that these sort of minor blips are are irrelevant but it seems to excite the political journalists. And to be honest, if has been a Tory blip, Labour would have been all over it and chuckling with glee too.
I can't see anyone else becoming Prime Minister than Cameron if he achieves that.
At the lower end, it'd require Ed Miliband to fail to stitch together any realistic coalition. At the top end, it'd require the Conservative party or Liberal Democrats to actively scupper it.