Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Afternoon all and a very selective groups of polls there, i.e. the ones which consistently show Labour leads Survation and Populus, both of whom will still be recording Labour leads as David Cameron walks back into No 10 on 8th May.
Look at the seats. When Labour was roughly 5%+ ahead in the polls, Ashcroft was showing Labour only capable of taking 39 Tory seats. Mood music on the ground is indicating the Tories are doing better in some of these seats than the polls would suggest. Only last night on the TV news, Stockton South was reported to be stronger for the Tories and if the Tories are possibly holding their 6th most marginal seat, where is Labour's 55 gains going to come from?
Stockton South has been tipped up as a Tory hold on here for a while, but there are alot of constituencies which... haven't been amongst the marginals. The Con holds are the exception, not the Lab gain rule.
Are all favoured to be won by Labour - We notice the likes of Stockton as they are the exception rather than the rule.
You can push further down the list in the Northwest and London too.
Any reason why Stockton South would be a Tory hold? The MP there is a nasty little oink who has links with war-criminals.
I don't know, you can bet on a Labour Gain at Evens though, that is bent right out of shape when you compare it to the other constituencies I have listed here bearing in mind the wafer thin majority. I've heard on the grapevine Labour have issues in that constituency.
Stockton South's prices of Evens, Evens are what they are.
Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
Considering Conservative or UKIP I can understand, but the world view that leads to UKIP or Green, or even Conservative or Green, leaves me lost. Perhaps the Green candidate is family or something.
The UKIP and Green lady cared a lot about the environment and a lot about immigration and was trying to decide which was more important
About 80 % of my work is abroad. I even have a place in France. I can hardly imagine how much I'd save by opening a bank account in every country I work in and depositing my fees. If you want the tax benefits of living in a tax haven then live in the Isle of Man not London
That gives me an excuse to post this fabulous quote. A lady after my own heart.
Champagne “I drink it when I’m happy and when I’m sad. Sometimes I drink it when I’m alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I’m not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it – unless I’m thirsty.” ~ Lily Bollinger
About 80 % of my work is abroad. I even have a place in France. I can hardly imagine how much I'd save by opening a bank account in every country I work in and depositing my fees. If you want the tax benefits of living in a tax haven then live in the Isle of Man not London
Its not a tax haven to be charged in the UK for all money you make in the UK and all money you bring into the UK. Those are the rules Ireland has, not simply the Isle of Man.
Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?
So Chris Leslie is sent out to do Ed Balls job...this is a man who if you dangle the prospect of a £100k donation he is all ears about how to modify policy for the better.
....but Harry Cole said...and Andrew Neil said.......and what about the BBC.........and Jon Piennar...... For heavens sake if your ships going down show some dignity!
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
The closer we get to election day without a move in the polls one way or the other, the more uncertain the result. We are either going to get a 1992-style last minute swing or a very hung Parliament and probably a second election. The only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP, and I don't think any other party wants to touch them with a bargepole - I can't see Lab+LD+SNP managing to pass a budget.
Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
Considering Conservative or UKIP I can understand, but the world view that leads to UKIP or Green, or even Conservative or Green, leaves me lost. Perhaps the Green candidate is family or something.
Well, I'm considering either Conservative, Green or Lib Dem in this 'ere constituency, in that order, based on the criteria I've mentioned before: whether the candidate could be ar*sed to have a website that details his or her opinions on constituency matters.
The Conservative has the best, the Green the second-best, and the Lib Dem comes a rather poor third. The others are absolutely abysmal, particularly the 'effort' by the Labour candidate (a big picture of himself along with his supporters, and his phone number, with links to his twitter and email). It was a policy-free zone, and needless to say his twitter is awful.
If a candidate cannot be bothered to have a website that has information on constituency issues, he/she does not deserve a single vote.
Now, if I could only find a hustings here in South Cambs that I could attend...
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
The closer we get to election day without a move in the polls one way or the other, the more uncertain the result. We are either going to get a 1992-style last minute swing or a very hung Parliament and probably a second election. The only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP, and I don't think any other party wants to touch them with a bargepole - I can't see Lab+LD+SNP managing to pass a budget.
"only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP"
No, they want Labour Minority. They've seen what happens to Junior partners in a coalition and they'd rather be outside the tent than inside.
Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).
@David_Cameron: Today we've seen the chaos there'd be if Labour was ever allowed to be in charge of the economy. Don't let them take us back to square one.
Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
Looking through a (ComRes?) poll after the leaders debate, Mr Clegg's best region was the South-West. He placed fourth.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).
South Thanet deserves better than a beer swilling loud mouth, prone to political stunts…!
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?
In exchange for a plebiscite on the EU and a big changes on IHT.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).
South Thanet deserves better than a beer swilling loud mouth, prone to political stunts…!
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?
The Tories will agree to almost anything to get the EU referendum.
My understanding is that the LDs will not offer C&S to either party if there's a possibility of a coalition being formed. They regard the former as being totally unstable.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?
In exchange for a plebiscite on the EU and a big changes on IHT.
At the last budget meeting there was a huge IHT-Steak ready to be served up, with a mahoosive Lib Dem Double blueberry muesli sundae of higher rate council taxes and increased PAs.
Clegg didn't fancy the idea of Tories getting IHT Steak so George fed the Lib Dem sundae to the dogs.
And that is how we ended up with the final budget of the parliament.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?
The Tories will agree to almost anything to get the EU referendum.
My understanding is that the LDs will not offer C&S to either party if there's a possibility of a coalition being formed. They regard the former as being totally unstable.
There are surely still some red lines and TSE's crossed the line repeatedly. Voting reform was dealt with last time.
A referendum on Lords reform seems plausible - just not a rehash of the 15 year disaster of last time.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
For Westminster, Farage has lost seven times in a row since 1994, including two by-elections. Although he is an MEP, so I'm not sure he would count.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
"Sales at Aldi soared 16.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, taking the discounter's share of the groceries market to 5.3 per cent compared to Waitrose's 5.1 per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.
Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said Aldi’s growth had been fuelled by more than half a million new shoppers, and by customers buying more, with average basket size increasing by 7 per cent....
The country’s other large discount supermarket Lidl saw its sales jump 12.1 per cent over the period to a 3.7 per cent market share.
Tesco and Asda in the middle market have been losing trade not just to the discounters but also to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and M&S. Lidl and Waitrose were the only other retailers apart from Aldi to grow sales ahead of the market and increase their market share in the period."
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?
Betfair exchange
LD U/O 32.5 seats : Over 6 Under 1.25
Thanks, just taken that 6.0 - their 33rd seat is only about 6/4
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
The World at One @BBCWorldatOne 23m23 minutes ago .@TheIFS "It's very difficult to say how much, if any, revenue Labour's policy would raise." #wato #nondom
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
A history of shooting dogs is a good reason on its own for voting LD.
The non-domicile issue is a smart one for Ed Miliband to play, and disastrous to the Conservatives. Our great weakness is that we're seen as the party of the rich. Forcing us to defend giving some very rich British citizens a better tax regime than others is never going to go down well with the vast majority of the public. It is intuitively unfair and anything intuitively unfair is a killer when you're out canvassing.
Oh I don't know. It has been presented as a grand tax dodge, but no-one seems able to explain how it involves dodging taxes. It seems intuitively obvious to me that if you earn an income in, say, Ireland, and the money stays in Ireland that it should be taxed in Ireland. I guess it becomes a dodge if people get themselves paid by paper companies in Monaco, or wherever - is that the sort of thing that goes on?
It's interesting that a lot of fuss is made about taxing companies in the countries where they generate their income, but the non-dom thing seems to be the opposite, of wanting to tax people in countries other than where the income was earned.
And this is why non-dom stuff is good for Ed Miliband. The policy might be unraveling and not raise any income (in fact might hurt the UK), but you get these column inches...
Also funny out Mittal name comes up, no mention of Labour donor, no mention of some interesting things in his background...but TORRRRRRRRRRIEESSSSSSS...can't be proved took donations....but TORRRRRIEEESSSSSS...TTTTTTHHHHATTTCCHHERRRR....HSBC....on the side of the rich and powerful....
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
A mastery of the colour coded bar-chart is an essential prerequisite I believe..!
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
A history of shooting dogs is a good reason on its own for voting LD.
I'm not really keen on dogs. So the Lib Dems and I are a perfect fit.
I share a lot of similarities with Chris Huhne. Thinking about it.
Mostly on the number of speeding points we've accrued.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
TPD!
We've got more Viscounts that the Conservatives. Just need to work on a high profile defection from the Jacobite Party @jackw
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Indeed. They (idiot Tory backbenchers) haven't forgiven Cam for not winning in 2010 and rebelled as though they were in the school playground. Not winning in 2015 and they might as well split off to form the Continuity Conservative Party.
"Sales at Aldi soared 16.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, taking the discounter's share of the groceries market to 5.3 per cent compared to Waitrose's 5.1 per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.
Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said Aldi’s growth had been fuelled by more than half a million new shoppers, and by customers buying more, with average basket size increasing by 7 per cent....
The country’s other large discount supermarket Lidl saw its sales jump 12.1 per cent over the period to a 3.7 per cent market share.
Tesco and Asda in the middle market have been losing trade not just to the discounters but also to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and M&S. Lidl and Waitrose were the only other retailers apart from Aldi to grow sales ahead of the market and increase their market share in the period."
At my local Lidl, more trolleys are now used than baskets - Aldi is due in town next year - same time as a new Tesco and new M&S.
I haven't got either near me but did use Aldi in Camborne when I was down in Cornwall a couple of weeks ago, and can't say that I liked it much. However we then used Lidl in Pool and I really liked it in there.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
Though the arguments made for and against were more based on PR than AV ironically. Either way it wasn't even close, so why would you possibly think its appropriate to implement reforms locally without a plebiscite after that?
A plebiscite on Lords Reform in exchange for a plebiscite on the EU sounds like a fair deal to me.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
Are the LD's still interested in PR? they've gone very quiet on the subject, after all if we had PR they would now be the fourth party in England and Scotland and the Fifth party in Wales.
Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?
You're both wrong. You have assembled some reasonably acute minds on PB, Mike and the most acute of these are saying the story is disarray and incompetence at the top of the Labour Party and potentially some kind of internecine activity also.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
Though the arguments made for and against were more based on PR than AV ironically. Either way it wasn't even close, so why would you possibly think its appropriate to implement reforms locally without a plebiscite after that?
A plebiscite on Lords Reform in exchange for a plebiscite on the EU sounds like a fair deal to me.
Personally I voted against AV because it isn't PR.
Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?
Anti Tory vote consolidated around SDP/ LD IN 1980s.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?
TPD!
We've got more Viscounts that the Conservatives. Just need to work on a high profile defection from the Jacobite Party @jackw
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes. And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
You're both wrong. You have assembled some reasonably acute minds on PB, Mike and the most acute of these are saying the story is disarray and incompetence at the top of the Labour Party and potentially some kind of internecine activity also.
John Pienaar said it was 'the mother and father of all banana skins'. Who to believe?
....but Harry Cole said...and Andrew Neil said.......and what about the BBC.........and Jon Piennar...... For heavens sake if your ships going down show some dignity!
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes. And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
That Tom Bradby?
Bradby has committed heresy by attacking the tribe.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
Almost certainly "Howling Lord" Alan Hope, from the Monster Raving Loonies.
Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?
Anti Tory vote consolidated around SDP/ LD IN 1980s.
Sell UKIP on the Sporting Index at 4.0 (Settles at 10.0 for second, 25 for first) - this is a two horse race disguised as a 7 horse race.
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
Are the LD's still interested in PR? they've gone very quiet on the subject, after all if we had PR they would now be the fourth party in England and Scotland and the Fifth party in Wales.
When you have STV the rules of the game change dramatically. There is a lot of latent Con/Lab support that sticks with them only because of FPTP - to be fair this is also true of other parties but much less so given the numbers of seats they have.
"can't win here" no longer applies and people are able to vote positively for something rather than for the least worse option.
And given 8% of the vote in England would equate to c55 seats in a proportional system, I think most Lib Dems would take that at present.
This, from Leonid Bershidsky, is one of the more astute political comments I have read about Syriza, and it has a very broad application to incoming governments around the world. While politicians generally have a bad reputation, and it is true that too much time is spent on party politics, my experience of how politicians in democracies take executive decisions once in power is much more in line with this observation than with the general public perception:
"The second reality check must have been domestic: The shock of finding out how things really stood from a government's prospective. Like any opposition party in a badly managed, non-transparent country, Syriza had only an approximate idea of the costs and benefits of its proposed measures – or, indeed, of why previous governments hadn't done all these nice, kind, sensible things for the Greek people. It turns out it wasn't because those governments were just evil and criminal"
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes. And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
That Tom Bradby?
This type of agit prop student politiking from Miliband may well work. The voters are angry enough with politicians and Miliband's desperate nonsense may get him into Number 10. So be it. He will be the worst PM since WW2. Worse than Brown.
Jolyon may become a very unpopular chap amongst his fellow corporate lawyers if there is an exodus of these people. The lawyers will feel it in their pockets.
Comments
Labour trying to spin line that it is old news...but complete gift to Tories. ..wangle over what Labour were trying to say.
Stockton South's prices of Evens, Evens are what they are.
About 80 % of my work is abroad. I even have a place in France. I can hardly imagine how much I'd save by opening a bank account in every country I work in and depositing my fees. If you want the tax benefits of living in a tax haven then live in the Isle of Man not London
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9JTMO0DZiM
LD U/O 32.5 seats : Over 6 Under 1.25
Maybe a few non-doms should give him a ring?
The only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP, and I don't think any other party wants to touch them with a bargepole - I can't see Lab+LD+SNP managing to pass a budget.
The Conservative has the best, the Green the second-best, and the Lib Dem comes a rather poor third. The others are absolutely abysmal, particularly the 'effort' by the Labour candidate (a big picture of himself along with his supporters, and his phone number, with links to his twitter and email). It was a policy-free zone, and needless to say his twitter is awful.
If a candidate cannot be bothered to have a website that has information on constituency issues, he/she does not deserve a single vote.
Now, if I could only find a hustings here in South Cambs that I could attend...
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
Laughing at UKIP is meant to be easy. This is 10 misses at an open goal.
No, they want Labour Minority. They've seen what happens to Junior partners in a coalition and they'd rather be outside the tent than inside.
His sliming with Derek Draper was revolting.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
My understanding is that the LDs will not offer C&S to either party if there's a possibility of a coalition being formed. They regard the former as being totally unstable.
Clegg didn't fancy the idea of Tories getting IHT Steak so George fed the Lib Dem sundae to the dogs.
And that is how we ended up with the final budget of the parliament.
A referendum on Lords reform seems plausible - just not a rehash of the 15 year disaster of last time.
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
Let's hope it's eight times in a row at GE 2015.
"Sales at Aldi soared 16.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, taking the discounter's share of the groceries market to 5.3 per cent compared to Waitrose's 5.1 per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.
Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said Aldi’s growth had been fuelled by more than half a million new shoppers, and by customers buying more, with average basket size increasing by 7 per cent....
The country’s other large discount supermarket Lidl saw its sales jump 12.1 per cent over the period to a 3.7 per cent market share.
Tesco and Asda in the middle market have been losing trade not just to the discounters but also to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and M&S. Lidl and Waitrose were the only other retailers apart from Aldi to grow sales ahead of the market and increase their market share in the period."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3030079/
At my local Lidl, more trolleys are now used than baskets - Aldi is due in town next year - same time as a new Tesco and new M&S.
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/585773362649178116
.@TheIFS "It's very difficult to say how much, if any, revenue Labour's policy would raise." #wato #nondom
So it still a tory plot, Ed Balls?
It's interesting that a lot of fuss is made about taxing companies in the countries where they generate their income, but the non-dom thing seems to be the opposite, of wanting to tax people in countries other than where the income was earned.
And this is why non-dom stuff is good for Ed Miliband. The policy might be unraveling and not raise any income (in fact might hurt the UK), but you get these column inches...
Also funny out Mittal name comes up, no mention of Labour donor, no mention of some interesting things in his background...but TORRRRRRRRRRIEESSSSSSS...can't be proved took donations....but TORRRRRIEEESSSSSS...TTTTTTHHHHATTTCCHHERRRR....HSBC....on the side of the rich and powerful....
The tories thrashed around a lot when ed came up with the gas price freeze..
I share a lot of similarities with Chris Huhne. Thinking about it.
Mostly on the number of speeding points we've accrued.
Perhaps I am an upmarket discount shopper?
A plebiscite on Lords Reform in exchange for a plebiscite on the EU sounds like a fair deal to me.
I'm desperate to avoid watching Liverpool's inevitable embarrassing exit from the FA Cup tonight to watch David Coburn in action.
Lib Dem losses to SNP
Lib Dem losses to Labour
Con losses to Labour
Con losses to UKIP
to be under 35 to carry on the coalition. The Lib Dem losses could be nearly 20 on their own.
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
Scott N Paste - Love it!!
LOL!!!!
The Tory response has been consistent
The Labour spokespeople have been all over the shop.
The rules will be abolished. Or modified. It will cost money. Or not.
http://www.bmstores.co.uk/images/hpcProductImage/imgFull/232817-Viscount-Pack-of-14-Biscuits-Mint.jpg
That Tom Bradby?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/585786514191347714/photo/1
He must be shunned, pilloried and be made to pay!
Then having made up "experts" who say it will raise £'000m's. They must be the magic money tree surgeons.
Tories doing a good job of showing Labour Chaos again, with strong support from the Labour Treasury team
The Tories should use it to enhance the excellent "Chaos or competence" line on the economy.
Labour simply do not have a scooby doo.
"can't win here" no longer applies and people are able to vote positively for something rather than for the least worse option.
And given 8% of the vote in England would equate to c55 seats in a proportional system, I think most Lib Dems would take that at present.
"The second reality check must have been domestic: The shock of finding out how things really stood from a government's prospective. Like any opposition party in a badly managed, non-transparent country, Syriza had only an approximate idea of the costs and benefits of its proposed measures – or, indeed, of why previous governments hadn't done all these nice, kind, sensible things for the Greek people. It turns out it wasn't because those governments were just evil and criminal"