politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s still a huge gap facing the Tories in England and W
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Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?0
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Norman Smith - Clarity and consistency crucial, Labour are lacking...
Labour trying to spin line that it is old news...but complete gift to Tories. ..wangle over what Labour were trying to say.0 -
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
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I don't know, you can bet on a Labour Gain at Evens though, that is bent right out of shape when you compare it to the other constituencies I have listed here bearing in mind the wafer thin majority. I've heard on the grapevine Labour have issues in that constituency.murali_s said:
Any reason why Stockton South would be a Tory hold? The MP there is a nasty little oink who has links with war-criminals.Pulpstar said:
Stockton South has been tipped up as a Tory hold on here for a while, but there are alot of constituencies which... haven't been amongst the marginals. The Con holds are the exception, not the Lab gain rule.Easterross said:Afternoon all and a very selective groups of polls there, i.e. the ones which consistently show Labour leads Survation and Populus, both of whom will still be recording Labour leads as David Cameron walks back into No 10 on 8th May.
Look at the seats. When Labour was roughly 5%+ ahead in the polls, Ashcroft was showing Labour only capable of taking 39 Tory seats. Mood music on the ground is indicating the Tories are doing better in some of these seats than the polls would suggest. Only last night on the TV news, Stockton South was reported to be stronger for the Tories and if the Tories are possibly holding their 6th most marginal seat, where is Labour's 55 gains going to come from?
1. North Warwickshire Majority 54 (0.1%)
3. Thurrock Majority 92 (0.2%*)
4. Hendon Majority 106 (0.2%)
6. Cardiff North Majority 194 (0.4%)
7. Sherwood Majority 214 (0.4%)
9. Broxtowe Majority 389 (0.7%)
10. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 333 (0.8%)
13. Amber Valley Majority 536 (1.2%)
14. Waveney Majority 769 (1.5%)
15. Wolverhampton South West Majority 691 (1.7%)
18. Carlisle Majority 853 (2%)
19. Stroud Majority 1299 (2.2%)
20. Weaver Vale Majority 991 (2.3%)
21. Lincoln Majority 1058 (2.3%)
23. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 1149 (2.6%)
24. Dewsbury Majority 1526 (2.8%)
25. Warrington South Majority 1553 (2.8%)
26. Bedford Majority 1353 (3%)
27. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 1328 (3.1%)
29. Corby Majority 1895 (3.5%)
31. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 1958 (3.6%)
32. Hove Majority 1868 (3.8%)
33. Enfield North Majority 1692 (3.8%)
34. Hastings & Rye Majority 1993 (4%)
36. Ipswich Majority 2079 (4.4%)
37. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 2023 (4.6%)
38. Nuneaton Majority 2069 (4.6%)
Are all favoured to be won by Labour - We notice the likes of Stockton as they are the exception rather than the rule.
You can push further down the list in the Northwest and London too.
Stockton South's prices of Evens, Evens are what they are.0 -
The UKIP and Green lady cared a lot about the environment and a lot about immigration and was trying to decide which was more importantHurstLlama said:
Considering Conservative or UKIP I can understand, but the world view that leads to UKIP or Green, or even Conservative or Green, leaves me lost. Perhaps the Green candidate is family or something.Garethofthevale said:Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
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Prh47
About 80 % of my work is abroad. I even have a place in France. I can hardly imagine how much I'd save by opening a bank account in every country I work in and depositing my fees. If you want the tax benefits of living in a tax haven then live in the Isle of Man not London0 -
Yes. This is happening. Scary.Sunil_Prasannan said:Everyone get their polling cards yet?
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Stockton South is one of the constituencies in Ashcroft's next batch of marginal polling I think.0
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That gives me an excuse to post this fabulous quote. A lady after my own heart.
Champagne
“I drink it when I’m happy and when I’m sad.
Sometimes I drink it when I’m alone.
When I have company I consider it obligatory.
I trifle with it if I’m not hungry and drink it when I am.
Otherwise, I never touch it – unless I’m thirsty.”
~ Lily BollingerAnorak said:0 -
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Its not a tax haven to be charged in the UK for all money you make in the UK and all money you bring into the UK. Those are the rules Ireland has, not simply the Isle of Man.Roger said:Prh47
About 80 % of my work is abroad. I even have a place in France. I can hardly imagine how much I'd save by opening a bank account in every country I work in and depositing my fees. If you want the tax benefits of living in a tax haven then live in the Isle of Man not London
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@MrSteerpike: Ed Balls has gone to ground... Telly sources tell Mr S he is currently dodging Sky, C4 News and Newsnight: http://t.co/uFwJ6RMGjy0
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Ashcroft had a small and diminishing Labour lead there last autumn while Survation had the Tories ahead around November time.murali_s said:Any reason why Stockton South would be a Tory hold? The MP there is a nasty little oink who has links with war-criminals.
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But, but Roger says this is a tremendous success. Why's Ed hiding?Scott_P said:@MrSteerpike: Ed Balls has gone to ground... Telly sources tell Mr S he is currently dodging Sky, C4 News and Newsnight: http://t.co/uFwJ6RMGjy
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Betfair exchangeFinancier said:Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?
LD U/O 32.5 seats : Over 6 Under 1.25
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So Chris Leslie is sent out to do Ed Balls job...this is a man who if you dangle the prospect of a £100k donation he is all ears about how to modify policy for the better.
Maybe a few non-doms should give him a ring?0 -
True, and only four weeks of the campaign left!Casino_Royale said:
Yes. This is happening. Scary.Sunil_Prasannan said:Everyone get their polling cards yet?
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The closer we get to election day without a move in the polls one way or the other, the more uncertain the result. We are either going to get a 1992-style last minute swing or a very hung Parliament and probably a second election.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
The only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP, and I don't think any other party wants to touch them with a bargepole - I can't see Lab+LD+SNP managing to pass a budget.0 -
Well, I'm considering either Conservative, Green or Lib Dem in this 'ere constituency, in that order, based on the criteria I've mentioned before: whether the candidate could be ar*sed to have a website that details his or her opinions on constituency matters.HurstLlama said:
Considering Conservative or UKIP I can understand, but the world view that leads to UKIP or Green, or even Conservative or Green, leaves me lost. Perhaps the Green candidate is family or something.Garethofthevale said:Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
The Conservative has the best, the Green the second-best, and the Lib Dem comes a rather poor third. The others are absolutely abysmal, particularly the 'effort' by the Labour candidate (a big picture of himself along with his supporters, and his phone number, with links to his twitter and email). It was a policy-free zone, and needless to say his twitter is awful.
If a candidate cannot be bothered to have a website that has information on constituency issues, he/she does not deserve a single vote.
Now, if I could only find a hustings here in South Cambs that I could attend...0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Now the London backlash begins. Investors & WestEnd spenders would flee Labour's non-doms policy, say experts. http://t.co/ylm9gQHbza0
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Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
First Labour election leaflet today. Ed isn't in it...0
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What was the shortest GE campaign in recentish history? IIRC Mrs T did a three week on in the 80s.Sunil_Prasannan said:
True, and only four weeks of the campaign left!Casino_Royale said:
Yes. This is happening. Scary.Sunil_Prasannan said:Everyone get their polling cards yet?
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Just like his old boss Macavity Brown.Scott_P said:@MrSteerpike: Ed Balls has gone to ground... Telly sources tell Mr S he is currently dodging Sky, C4 News and Newsnight: http://t.co/uFwJ6RMGjy
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"only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP"Sandpit said:
The closer we get to election day without a move in the polls one way or the other, the more uncertain the result. We are either going to get a 1992-style last minute swing or a very hung Parliament and probably a second election.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
The only party that seems up for a coalition are the SNP, and I don't think any other party wants to touch them with a bargepole - I can't see Lab+LD+SNP managing to pass a budget.
No, they want Labour Minority. They've seen what happens to Junior partners in a coalition and they'd rather be outside the tent than inside.0 -
No sign of a manifesto from anyone - pathetic.Plato said:What was the shortest GE campaign in recentish history? IIRC Mrs T did a three week on in the 80s.
Sunil_Prasannan said:
True, and only four weeks of the campaign left!Casino_Royale said:
Yes. This is happening. Scary.Sunil_Prasannan said:Everyone get their polling cards yet?
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Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).MikeSmithson said:0 -
There are VERY few people who's views I won't read on principle as they make me feel grubby. Mr McBride's are one of them.
His sliming with Derek Draper was revolting.Ishmael_X said:0 -
@David_Cameron: Today we've seen the chaos there'd be if Labour was ever allowed to be in charge of the economy. Don't let them take us back to square one.0
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Looking through a (ComRes?) poll after the leaders debate, Mr Clegg's best region was the South-West. He placed fourth.Garethofthevale said:Just watching the Daily Politics. They had 3 undecided voters near Truro. One was considering Con or UKIP, one was considering UKIP or Green and the third was considering Green or Con. Must be worrying for the LDs they couldn't find anyone considering them in Cornwall.
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Tories are Monday - no idea about the others.TGOHF said:
No sign of a manifesto from anyone - pathetic.Plato said:What was the shortest GE campaign in recentish history? IIRC Mrs T did a three week on in the 80s.
Sunil_Prasannan said:
True, and only four weeks of the campaign left!Casino_Royale said:
Yes. This is happening. Scary.Sunil_Prasannan said:Everyone get their polling cards yet?
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How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
South Thanet deserves better than a beer swilling loud mouth, prone to political stunts…!FrancisUrquhart said:
Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).MikeSmithson said:0 -
In exchange for a plebiscite on the EU and a big changes on IHT.Casino_Royale said:
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?0 -
:-)SimonStClare said:
South Thanet deserves better than a beer swilling loud mouth, prone to political stunts…!FrancisUrquhart said:
Really? Al Murray videos have done a far better job on running this kind of gag already, although his own campaign is turning into just as a much a joke (and not quite in the way he hoped).MikeSmithson said:0 -
The Tories will agree to almost anything to get the EU referendum.Casino_Royale said:
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
My understanding is that the LDs will not offer C&S to either party if there's a possibility of a coalition being formed. They regard the former as being totally unstable.
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PBers?
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?0 -
At the last budget meeting there was a huge IHT-Steak ready to be served up, with a mahoosive Lib Dem Double blueberry muesli sundae of higher rate council taxes and increased PAs.TheScreamingEagles said:
In exchange for a plebiscite on the EU and a big changes on IHT.Casino_Royale said:
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
Clegg didn't fancy the idea of Tories getting IHT Steak so George fed the Lib Dem sundae to the dogs.
And that is how we ended up with the final budget of the parliament.0 -
There are surely still some red lines and TSE's crossed the line repeatedly. Voting reform was dealt with last time.MikeSmithson said:
The Tories will agree to almost anything to get the EU referendum.Casino_Royale said:
How would you get Tory MPs to vote for that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
My understanding is that the LDs will not offer C&S to either party if there's a possibility of a coalition being formed. They regard the former as being totally unstable.
A referendum on Lords reform seems plausible - just not a rehash of the 15 year disaster of last time.0 -
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.Philip_Thompson said:
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.0 -
I suspect the answer is Nige.Plato said:PBers?
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?0 -
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
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For Westminster, Farage has lost seven times in a row since 1994, including two by-elections. Although he is an MEP, so I'm not sure he would count.Plato said:PBers?
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
Let's hope it's eight times in a row at GE 2015.0 -
I assumed there would be some vintage MRLPers or perhaps Winston?
I suspect the answer is Nige.Pulpstar said:Plato said:PBers?
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?
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As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
Aldi and Lidl market shares still growing.
"Sales at Aldi soared 16.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, taking the discounter's share of the groceries market to 5.3 per cent compared to Waitrose's 5.1 per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.
Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said Aldi’s growth had been fuelled by more than half a million new shoppers, and by customers buying more, with average basket size increasing by 7 per cent....
The country’s other large discount supermarket Lidl saw its sales jump 12.1 per cent over the period to a 3.7 per cent market share.
Tesco and Asda in the middle market have been losing trade not just to the discounters but also to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and M&S. Lidl and Waitrose were the only other retailers apart from Aldi to grow sales ahead of the market and increase their market share in the period."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3030079/
At my local Lidl, more trolleys are now used than baskets - Aldi is due in town next year - same time as a new Tesco and new M&S.0 -
"Winning here"TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
0
-
TPD!TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
Thanks, just taken that 6.0 - their 33rd seat is only about 6/4TGOHF said:
Betfair exchangeFinancier said:Somehow I think that the LDs will retain near 30 seats. However, in an ensuing coalition battle, I could see the LD MPs splitting their allegiance between the Cons and LAB - and especially if they are leaderless. The start of a new end for the LDs?
LD U/O 32.5 seats : Over 6 Under 1.250 -
Last night's Scotland debate was "on STV"?TheScreamingEagles said:
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.Philip_Thompson said:
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
0 -
The World at One @BBCWorldatOne 23m23 minutes ago
.@TheIFS "It's very difficult to say how much, if any, revenue Labour's policy would raise." #wato #nondom
So it still a tory plot, Ed Balls?0 -
A history of shooting dogs is a good reason on its own for voting LD.TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
0 -
Oh I don't know. It has been presented as a grand tax dodge, but no-one seems able to explain how it involves dodging taxes. It seems intuitively obvious to me that if you earn an income in, say, Ireland, and the money stays in Ireland that it should be taxed in Ireland. I guess it becomes a dodge if people get themselves paid by paper companies in Monaco, or wherever - is that the sort of thing that goes on?JEO said:The non-domicile issue is a smart one for Ed Miliband to play, and disastrous to the Conservatives. Our great weakness is that we're seen as the party of the rich. Forcing us to defend giving some very rich British citizens a better tax regime than others is never going to go down well with the vast majority of the public. It is intuitively unfair and anything intuitively unfair is a killer when you're out canvassing.
It's interesting that a lot of fuss is made about taxing companies in the countries where they generate their income, but the non-dom thing seems to be the opposite, of wanting to tax people in countries other than where the income was earned.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32217578
And this is why non-dom stuff is good for Ed Miliband. The policy might be unraveling and not raise any income (in fact might hurt the UK), but you get these column inches...
Also funny out Mittal name comes up, no mention of Labour donor, no mention of some interesting things in his background...but TORRRRRRRRRRIEESSSSSSS...can't be proved took donations....but TORRRRRIEEESSSSSS...TTTTTTHHHHATTTCCHHERRRR....HSBC....on the side of the rich and powerful....0 -
Michael Savage tweet
The tories thrashed around a lot when ed came up with the gas price freeze..
0 -
A mastery of the colour coded bar-chart is an essential prerequisite I believe..!TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
0 -
I'm not really keen on dogs. So the Lib Dems and I are a perfect fit.MikeSmithson said:
A history of shooting dogs is a good reason on its own for voting LD.TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
I share a lot of similarities with Chris Huhne. Thinking about it.
Mostly on the number of speeding points we've accrued.0 -
We've got more Viscounts that the Conservatives. Just need to work on a high profile defection from the Jacobite Party @jackwSunil_Prasannan said:
TPD!TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
0 -
Indeed. They (idiot Tory backbenchers) haven't forgiven Cam for not winning in 2010 and rebelled as though they were in the school playground. Not winning in 2015 and they might as well split off to form the Continuity Conservative Party.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
0 -
I haven't got either near me but did use Aldi in Camborne when I was down in Cornwall a couple of weeks ago, and can't say that I liked it much. However we then used Lidl in Pool and I really liked it in there.Financier said:Aldi and Lidl market shares still growing.
"Sales at Aldi soared 16.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, taking the discounter's share of the groceries market to 5.3 per cent compared to Waitrose's 5.1 per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.
Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said Aldi’s growth had been fuelled by more than half a million new shoppers, and by customers buying more, with average basket size increasing by 7 per cent....
The country’s other large discount supermarket Lidl saw its sales jump 12.1 per cent over the period to a 3.7 per cent market share.
Tesco and Asda in the middle market have been losing trade not just to the discounters but also to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and M&S. Lidl and Waitrose were the only other retailers apart from Aldi to grow sales ahead of the market and increase their market share in the period."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3030079/
At my local Lidl, more trolleys are now used than baskets - Aldi is due in town next year - same time as a new Tesco and new M&S.
Perhaps I am an upmarket discount shopper?0 -
Though the arguments made for and against were more based on PR than AV ironically. Either way it wasn't even close, so why would you possibly think its appropriate to implement reforms locally without a plebiscite after that?TheScreamingEagles said:
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.Philip_Thompson said:
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
A plebiscite on Lords Reform in exchange for a plebiscite on the EU sounds like a fair deal to me.0 -
And energy companies simply froze higher prices in anticipation. What a wheeze!taffys said:Michael Savage tweet
The tories thrashed around a lot when ed came up with the gas price freeze..0 -
Is tonight's Scottish debate on the telly box for English viewers ?
I'm desperate to avoid watching Liverpool's inevitable embarrassing exit from the FA Cup tonight to watch David Coburn in action.0 -
A few more weeks of Labour's idiocy and ineptitude and LDs will probably feel more comfortable about another coalition with the tories.0
-
N-no! It's unravelling! Or something...MikeSmithson said:I agree with Savage
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/5857733626491781160 -
Are the LD's still interested in PR? they've gone very quiet on the subject, after all if we had PR they would now be the fourth party in England and Scotland and the Fifth party in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.0 -
Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?0
-
The Conservatives and Lib Dems need
Lib Dem losses to SNP
Lib Dem losses to Labour
Con losses to Labour
Con losses to UKIP
to be under 35 to carry on the coalition. The Lib Dem losses could be nearly 20 on their own.0 -
You're both wrong. You have assembled some reasonably acute minds on PB, Mike and the most acute of these are saying the story is disarray and incompetence at the top of the Labour Party and potentially some kind of internecine activity also.MikeSmithson said:I agree with Savage
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/5857733626491781160 -
Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.0 -
Personally I voted against AV because it isn't PR.Philip_Thompson said:
Though the arguments made for and against were more based on PR than AV ironically. Either way it wasn't even close, so why would you possibly think its appropriate to implement reforms locally without a plebiscite after that?TheScreamingEagles said:
We rejected AV last time. Not electoral reform.Philip_Thompson said:
We've already rejected voting reform. Why should we have to go through that all over again - and even worse without a plebiscite for local elections? Worst deal imaginable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
How about coming up with something that wasn't rejected 2:1 last time?
Do we need more discussions on PB on why AV is the sperm of Satan but Multi Member STV is the only true and fair electoral system.
A plebiscite on Lords Reform in exchange for a plebiscite on the EU sounds like a fair deal to me.0 -
Anti Tory vote consolidated around SDP/ LD IN 1980s.AllyPally_Rob said:Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?
0 -
Except that is not what happened.MikeSmithson said:I agree with Savage
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/585773362649178116
The Tory response has been consistent
The Labour spokespeople have been all over the shop.
The rules will be abolished. Or modified. It will cost money. Or not.0 -
Funny for Labour under Blair and Campbell it was called "rapid rebuttal" and was seen as a strength of the party. Under Tories its "thrashing around".MikeSmithson said:I agree with Savage
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/5857733626491781160 -
I had a thing for Viscounts when I was a kid:Tabman said:
We've got more Viscounts that the Conservatives. Just need to work on a high profile defection from the Jacobite Party @jackwSunil_Prasannan said:
TPD!TheScreamingEagles said:
As I am now a Lib Dem voter, what else do I need to know about my new party?Tabman said:
TSE - sandals and muesli are such old hat, dear boy. Personally it would have to be Ducker's and Chateau Palmer!TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
http://www.bmstores.co.uk/images/hpcProductImage/imgFull/232817-Viscount-Pack-of-14-Biscuits-Mint.jpg0 -
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?BenM said:Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
That Tom Bradby?0 -
@DPJHodges: @tombradby tweets on non-dom row are...er...eye-opening...TheScreamingEagles said:Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
That Tom Bradby?0 -
Speaking of DPJHodges, I'm sure we're all looking forward to this:Scott_P said:
@DPJHodges: @tombradby tweets on non-dom row are...er...eye-opening...TheScreamingEagles said:Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?
That Tom Bradby?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/585786514191347714/photo/10 -
John Pienaar said it was 'the mother and father of all banana skins'. Who to believe?TOPPING said:
You're both wrong. You have assembled some reasonably acute minds on PB, Mike and the most acute of these are saying the story is disarray and incompetence at the top of the Labour Party and potentially some kind of internecine activity also.MikeSmithson said:I agree with Savage
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/5857733626491781160 -
LOLRoger said:....but Harry Cole said...and Andrew Neil said.......and what about the BBC.........and Jon Piennar...... For heavens sake if your ships going down show some dignity!
0 -
Bradby has committed heresy by attacking the tribe.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?BenM said:Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
That Tom Bradby?
He must be shunned, pilloried and be made to pay!0 -
Almost certainly "Howling Lord" Alan Hope, from the Monster Raving Loonies.Plato said:PBers?
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Can anyone tell me, which candidate has the worst election record of any standing in 2015 - who has lost the most successive elections?0 -
Labour obviously panic over their usual tame BBC shopping Balls with his January interview on camera.
Then having made up "experts" who say it will raise £'000m's. They must be the magic money tree surgeons.
Tories doing a good job of showing Labour Chaos again, with strong support from the Labour Treasury team
0 -
Sell UKIP on the Sporting Index at 4.0 (Settles at 10.0 for second, 25 for first) - this is a two horse race disguised as a 7 horse race.Jonathan said:
Anti Tory vote consolidated around SDP/ LD IN 1980s.AllyPally_Rob said:Off topic but could someone explain given the demographics of the seat why Portsmouth South is a LD/Tory marginal? Seems like the kind of constituency that would be natural Labour territory?
0 -
Normally I Like Tom Bradby but he is wrong on this.BenM said:Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
The Tories should use it to enhance the excellent "Chaos or competence" line on the economy.
Labour simply do not have a scooby doo.0 -
When you have STV the rules of the game change dramatically. There is a lot of latent Con/Lab support that sticks with them only because of FPTP - to be fair this is also true of other parties but much less so given the numbers of seats they have.DeClare said:
Are the LD's still interested in PR? they've gone very quiet on the subject, after all if we had PR they would now be the fourth party in England and Scotland and the Fifth party in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put me in charge of coalition negotiations and I'll bring the Lib Dems into a new coalition.Tabman said:
I think Con minority with LD C&S would be most likely in that scenario. Much as I'd personally be up for a new coalition, I don't think the party is generally.Philip_Thompson said:
That'd be a terribly shambolic rainbow coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been working on the magic number
If Lab + SNP + LD + SDLP +Greens + PC = 320
So I reckon Lab only needs 240 seats to make Ed PM (assuming 45 Nats and 30 Lib Dems)
Currently they are on 258, allowing for a shellacking in Scotland, that puts them on 217, so they only need to make 30 odd gains from the Tories (allowing for 8 gains from the Lib Dems) to make Ed PM.
Allowing 3 for Sinn Fein and 9 for DUP that leaves 318 left, presumably almost all Con.
Con minority or Con+LD is more likely.
I'd offer them PR for local elections (sans plebiscite), Tax breaks on sandals and muesli, A plebiscite on STV for parliament and a wholly directly elected Senate.
"can't win here" no longer applies and people are able to vote positively for something rather than for the least worse option.
And given 8% of the vote in England would equate to c55 seats in a proportional system, I think most Lib Dems would take that at present.
0 -
This, from Leonid Bershidsky, is one of the more astute political comments I have read about Syriza, and it has a very broad application to incoming governments around the world. While politicians generally have a bad reputation, and it is true that too much time is spent on party politics, my experience of how politicians in democracies take executive decisions once in power is much more in line with this observation than with the general public perception:
"The second reality check must have been domestic: The shock of finding out how things really stood from a government's prospective. Like any opposition party in a badly managed, non-transparent country, Syriza had only an approximate idea of the costs and benefits of its proposed measures – or, indeed, of why previous governments hadn't done all these nice, kind, sensible things for the Greek people. It turns out it wasn't because those governments were just evil and criminal"0 -
Will Ed Balls be celebrating by Ed Balls day?0
-
@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband's non-dom crackdown may cost Britain money, Labour adviser admits http://t.co/Zig7aG8lTf0
-
This type of agit prop student politiking from Miliband may well work. The voters are angry enough with politicians and Miliband's desperate nonsense may get him into Number 10. So be it. He will be the worst PM since WW2. Worse than Brown.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that the Tom Brady who a few weeks ago said Dave's third term pledge would cost him votes and was the greatest strategic blunder since Carthage put Hannibal in charge of a large military force ?BenM said:Where's Scott N Paste?
tom bradby@tombradby · 2h 2 hours ago
Of this I am certain; by the end of the day, this will have cost the Tories votes.
And they will be votes they can ill afford to lose.
That Tom Bradby?
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Anyone know what this "interesting" poll is which computer2 alluded to earlier. Does he have inside information
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Bradby jumped the gun last night. He failed to foresee Labour's unique handling of it all.
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I wonder, does that take into account the considerable increase in registration in Scotland over the last year? The link to the data doesn't work ...Alanbrooke said:That graph really shows how over represented Wales is.
NI 100k people per seat
England 99.4k people per seat
Scotland 89.7k people per seat
Wales 76.6 people per seat
technically Scotland should have 6 seats less and Wales 10 less.
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Jolyon may become a very unpopular chap amongst his fellow corporate lawyers if there is an exodus of these people. The lawyers will feel it in their pockets.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband's non-dom crackdown may cost Britain money, Labour adviser admits http://t.co/Zig7aG8lTf
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