politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk


This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk


This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.

I don't see how it is going to be possible. Better to ramp up the annual fee.

I would suggest it is a "trap", as Labour will do have they had with other things and challenge the Tories to also commit to this. Then when the Tories say we don't think it is possible, it will just be used to reinforce Tories for the rich tax dodgers.

The feasibility is irrelevant.

Mike

You are dreaming. Murphy was by far the worst of the performers - totally disliked by the audience, uselessly agressive and looks well just weird.

I hope there is an assessment poll on the night so that our completely diverse opinions can be tested. However I would place a lot of money if a book was available on Murphy being judged fourth. I thought his performance near disastrous.

The Daily Mail have gone for a picture of Tony Blair that makes him look like Frankenstein's monster:

@suttonnick: Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
Blair's toxic embrace
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
#GE2015 http://t.co/9N7wNWwzjA

antifrank said:

The Daily Mail have gone for a picture of Tony Blair that makes him look like Frankenstein's monster:

@suttonnick: Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
Blair's toxic embrace
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
#GE2015 http://t.co/9N7wNWwzjA

Daily Mail impressed by Tony's return to the political fold :-)

I see Cameron snuck into the debate in disguise
https://twitter.com/EN_Somat/status/585550665130323969?lang=en-gb

Debate seems to have been viewed as a tedious snoreathon across the spectrum of Scottish political opinion with some grudging praise for Ruth D. Probably few beyond PBish viewers will have endured the whole 2 hours. Moustache Man (?????Mr Smithson )the only highlight!

jimmyczz said:

agree with Scotlass, Jim Murphy was terrible. Over aggressive and talking drivel

Oh I agree he talked drivel as always.
Scotslass is wrong though, he was not disliked by the audience.

YouGov coming - I fear a bad one.

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Hell Yeah....

More seriously, I am waiting for post Easter.

MaxPB said:

Tykejohnno said:

SMukesh said:

Tykejohnno said:

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk

That is massive.No wonder businessmen don`t like him.

Got to say,labour have hit the news headlines for the last 3 or 4 days,on policy or putting the tories on the back foot.

Tories need to respond.

You mean they made the Guardian front page. Hardly a surprise...

This story will be all over the bbc tomorrow,more good news for labour.

HYUFD said:

Scotslass Really? One young woman in the audience said Murphy had convinced her to vote Labour

Planting is big business these days. There will be no shortage of cant either after the General Election.

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Has the Welsh NHS published any NHS statistics yet or are Labour still covering it up.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk


This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.

I don't see how it is going to be possible. Better to ramp up the annual fee.

I would suggest it is a "trap", as Labour will do have they had with other things and challenge the Tories to also commit to this. Then when the Tories say we don't think it is possible, it will just be used to reinforce Tories for the rich tax dodgers.

The feasibility is irrelevant.

It's easy for the Tories though, "we will look at a rise in the non-dom fee".

They have increased the charge a couple of times already. But it is a complicated issue. The UK are almost unique in allowing it. It needs proper analysis.

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

I'll wait until after the Blair Witch Project goes away.
By the way that 35-33 is the same result as 2005.

Tonights YG

EICIPM

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Latest YouGov poll (06 - 07 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+2)
CON - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 14% (+1)
LDEM - 8% (-2)
GRN - 5% (+1)

Ed to abolish non dom status! Get in!

One thing you can say about Labour, its a policy a day that makes headlines. They are nonsense / terribly flawed, but they keep firing to keep the music going.

The Tories policies so far so minor like porn age verification I think most people had forgotten an hour after it was announced.

And the Lib Dems, tumbleweed....

MaxPB said:

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Has the Welsh NHS published any NHS statistics yet or are Labour still covering it up.

Welsh tourettes will not save the Toties on the state of the English NHS IMO

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Non-dom isn't hte tax hit the UK needs.
Ex-Pat is the tax hit needed.

Any UK citizen should be required to declare tax in the UK (net of any tax paid in their residency). Just like the US does.

Have fun living in Monaco or working in Dubai. But while you're a British Citizen and your family get UK Health and Education and other services, you pay full UK tax.

£20bn a year easy.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, Ruth Davidson is superb. I wouldn't mind her as UK Tory leader.

I can see the appeal of the Glasgow gritty politician, however she will have to win a seat first.
In 2010 she almost lost her deposit.

Labour still getting leads and therefore still at worst on parity with the Tories or only just behind. Therefore still on course for a win, and just a question of how good a win. The Tories seem able to eke their share upwards, but just cannot overtake Labour consistently or maintain a sizable enough lead.

Pulpstar Interesting comment on newsnight from 2 Scottish Labour voters 'Scottish Labour man has passion, Ed Miliband looks defeatist'

bigjohnowls said:

MaxPB said:

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Has the Welsh NHS published any NHS statistics yet or are Labour still covering it up.

Welsh tourettes will not save the Toties on the state of the English NHS IMO

The absence of a Labour solution may do so though. BJO keeps trashing the NHS but does not say what Miliband will do differently.

An empty vessel makes the most noise.

It wasn't a superb debate. It doesn't compare to debates of the past involving the likes of Steel, Rifkin, Salmond and John Smith.

It wont make any difference to voting intentions.

Davidson was the best on the night. Murphy needed to do more but then the BBCs anointed one was never going to cut it. SLAB just doesn't have the talent to put up in a debate in Scotland.

TheWatcher said:

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Porn for Beancounters, and obsessive politicians.

What about the Outcomes?

You think outcomes improve if you are longer in A&E,wait longer for treatment and are diagnosed with Cancer but not treated as soon.

Good luck with that arguement.

Give it up the Tories have lost the NHS argument from the day Lansley reforms were implemented

MikeL said:

Very disappointing polls today for Con.

Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.

But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.

Perhaps Cameron can try a couple more photos with kittens instead!

scotslass said:

The only person booed was Murphy

@BBCNews: Telegraph (Scotland): "Sturgeon jeered over threat of new vote on separation" http://t.co/g3HVOem90f (via @suttonnick) #BBCPapers

JohnO said:

Tykejohnno said:

Cameron and Osborne need to show some sunny uplands instead of mostly cuts,get on the front foot for fcuk sake.

I thought you were a kipper.

I am,but come on mr O,Prime minister Miliband - lol

But I also think we will go backwards under a labour Government.

Tykejohnno said:

JohnO said:

Tykejohnno said:

Cameron and Osborne need to show some sunny uplands instead of mostly cuts,get on the front foot for fcuk sake.

I thought you were a kipper.

I am,but come on mr O,Prime minister Miliband - lol

But I also think we will go backwards under a labour Government.

Yes, PM Miliband, and very much so, and courtesy of you kippers. Hey ho.

HYUFD said:

I see Cameron snuck into the debate in disguise
https://twitter.com/EN_Somat/status/585550665130323969?lang=en-gb

This is from the ITV Debate last week (or Question Time). It was certainly tweeted long before tonight.

imam 'assassinated' on London street by 'Syrian hit squad': Fierce critic of Assad regime found slumped in car with chest wounds after daylight attack

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3029468/Father-six-imam-assassinated-London-street-Syrian-hit-squad-Fierce-critic-Assad-regime-slumped-car-chest-wounds-daylight-attack.html

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

MaxPB said:

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Has the Welsh NHS published any NHS statistics yet or are Labour still covering it up.

Welsh tourettes will not save the Toties on the state of the English NHS IMO

The absence of a Labour solution may do so though. BJO keeps trashing the NHS but does not say what Miliband will do differently.

An empty vessel makes the most noise.

Have you found out how much your Trusts finances have deteriorated yet?

You think the 27% rise in Agency is down to lifestyle choice not money though don;t you?

Why do you think your Trust and 80% of Acutes are in deficit compared to 1% in 2010?

Or are you an empty vessel in respect of explaining this.

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Chill.

Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.

I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..

Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.

I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.

JohnO said:

Tykejohnno said:

JohnO said:

Tykejohnno said:

Cameron and Osborne need to show some sunny uplands instead of mostly cuts,get on the front foot for fcuk sake.

I thought you were a kipper.

I am,but come on mr O,Prime minister Miliband - lol

But I also think we will go backwards under a labour Government.

Yes, PM Miliband, and very much so, and courtesy of you kippers. Hey ho.

My vote won't count,bradford west,it's ever labour or respect.

20 years ago,tories might have had a chance for this seat.

STV studio assessment - the women have it. Obviously I agree. Certainly the Murphy was fourth followed by Rennie who was attacked on the coalition record for his prevarications.

chestnut said:

MikeL said:

Very disappointing polls today for Con.

Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.

But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.

Mike,

The online polls are generally favourable to LAB.

I was on the knock yesterday in North London - a through and through Labour area - a quarter of respondents had people in the house on holiday. It's Easter, It's half term.

Normality starts next week.

Are you a London Tory canvasser?A couple of questions:

1)Do you have a massive war chest as claimed.

2)Are you struggling with the number of volunteers as compared to previous elections?

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Chill.

Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.

I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..

Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.

I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.

Wish we still had the like button.

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Chill.

Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.

I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..

Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.

Quite. I find the continued confidence of some Tories, and the lack of confidence from Labour supporters, pretty baffling, although at least the Labour supporters have dire polling in Scotland to fuel their pessimism. Tory optimism seems based entirely on what it seems should happen if things were only fair, ignoring that while late shifts can indeed happen, this is getting pretty darn late, and even the things that were supposed to cause a late shift (people actually seeing Ed M) do not appear to have had an impact.

I will not mind looking a fool for saying the Tories have almost no chance if I am proven wrong, as of the options I would prefer a Cameron premiership, but the 'just you wait' argument is starting to run out of steam I think.

bigjohnowls said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

MaxPB said:

bigjohnowls said:

Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010

Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS

Has the Welsh NHS published any NHS statistics yet or are Labour still covering it up.

Welsh tourettes will not save the Toties on the state of the English NHS IMO

The absence of a Labour solution may do so though. BJO keeps trashing the NHS but does not say what Miliband will do differently.

An empty vessel makes the most noise.

Have you found out how much your Trusts finances have deteriorated yet?

You think the 27% rise in Agency is down to lifestyle choice not money though don;t you?

Why do you think your Trust and 80% of Acutes are in deficit compared to 1% in 2010?

Or are you an empty vessel in respect of explaining this.

How is Labour going to sort out the Acute Trusts finances?

How is Labour going to meet the 4 hr target with attendences going up each year?

How is Labour going to spend the BCT fund?

How is Labour going to meet the cancer target?

How is Labour going to reduce the number of agency staff?

No answers... just a running down of hard working NHS staff by BJO.

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Chill.

Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.

I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..

Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.

I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.

Don't despair many more twists and turns yet.

Still think Lab most seats at greater than 3.0 in a coin toss is good though

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Tykejohnno said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

Fux sake.

Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.

We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.

There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.

Chill.

Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.

I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..

Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.

I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.

I love your doom and gloom Casino. It mirrors exactly what I feel about Labour. I doubt both of us can be right.

We could be. Perhaps the British public, in their infinite wisdom, will exercise through some strange process of osmosis the result they really want: for both the Conservatives *and* Labour to lose.

A "sod the lot" of you result, with the Tories and Labour very close in seats, but neither able to form a stable government or do very much with it even if they do.