politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes
With what happens in Scotland likely to play a big part in the May 7th outcome the big event tonight was the STV Scottish leaders’ debate. It was powerful and passionate and on a totally different level from the sterile event last Thursday.
Wednesday's Guardian front page: ‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.
I don't see how it is going to be possible. Better to ramp up the annual fee.
I would suggest it is a "trap", as Labour will do have they had with other things and challenge the Tories to also commit to this. Then when the Tories say we don't think it is possible, it will just be used to reinforce Tories for the rich tax dodgers.
You are dreaming. Murphy was by far the worst of the performers - totally disliked by the audience, uselessly agressive and looks well just weird.
I hope there is an assessment poll on the night so that our completely diverse opinions can be tested. However I would place a lot of money if a book was available on Murphy being judged fourth. I thought his performance near disastrous.
Wednesday's Guardian front page: ‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.
I don't see how it is going to be possible. Better to ramp up the annual fee.
I would suggest it is a "trap", as Labour will do have they had with other things and challenge the Tories to also commit to this. Then when the Tories say we don't think it is possible, it will just be used to reinforce Tories for the rich tax dodgers.
The feasibility is irrelevant.
It's easy for the Tories though, "we will look at a rise in the non-dom fee".
You are dreaming. Murphy was by far the worst of the performers - totally disliked by the audience, uselessly agressive and looks well just weird.
I hope there is an assessment poll on the night so that our completely diverse opinions can be tested. However I would place a lot of money if a book was available on Murphy being judged fourth. I thought his performance near disastrous.
I'm not a fan of Murphy, but claiming he was disliked by the audience is just tosh. He did okay, not great but certainly as well as Sturgeon. Davidson performed well, but I doubt the Tories will benefit much.
Debate seems to have been viewed as a tedious snoreathon across the spectrum of Scottish political opinion with some grudging praise for Ruth D. Probably few beyond PBish viewers will have endured the whole 2 hours. Moustache Man (?????Mr Smithson )the only highlight!
Wednesday's Guardian front page: ‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.
I don't see how it is going to be possible. Better to ramp up the annual fee.
I would suggest it is a "trap", as Labour will do have they had with other things and challenge the Tories to also commit to this. Then when the Tories say we don't think it is possible, it will just be used to reinforce Tories for the rich tax dodgers.
The feasibility is irrelevant.
It's easy for the Tories though, "we will look at a rise in the non-dom fee".
They have increased the charge a couple of times already. But it is a complicated issue. The UK are almost unique in allowing it. It needs proper analysis.
One thing you can say about Labour, its a policy a day that makes headlines. They are nonsense / terribly flawed, but they keep firing to keep the music going.
The Tories policies so far so minor like porn age verification I think most people had forgotten an hour after it was announced.
Will be int to see if Bliar's intervention backfires as much as the Red Tops suggest it will. If so, has Blair deliberately shafted Miliband? Sadly he's not that humble. He genuinely believes the guff he spouts.
@SamCoatesTimes: Want to know who won tonight's STV debate? The Times will have post debates YouGov Scotland VI poll Thursday 10pm here / in Friday's Times
Non-dom isn't hte tax hit the UK needs. Ex-Pat is the tax hit needed.
Any UK citizen should be required to declare tax in the UK (net of any tax paid in their residency). Just like the US does.
Have fun living in Monaco or working in Dubai. But while you're a British Citizen and your family get UK Health and Education and other services, you pay full UK tax.
Labour still getting leads and therefore still at worst on parity with the Tories or only just behind. Therefore still on course for a win, and just a question of how good a win. The Tories seem able to eke their share upwards, but just cannot overtake Labour consistently or maintain a sizable enough lead.
Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.
But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.
@SamCoatesTimes: Want to know who won tonight's STV debate? The Times will have post debates YouGov Scotland VI poll Thursday 10pm here / in Friday's Times
So we have to wait till Thursday night to find out what the state of things are in scotland after the debate? Over here we had to wait half an hour tops to get 3 post debate polls.
It wasn't a superb debate. It doesn't compare to debates of the past involving the likes of Steel, Rifkin, Salmond and John Smith.
It wont make any difference to voting intentions.
Davidson was the best on the night. Murphy needed to do more but then the BBCs anointed one was never going to cut it. SLAB just doesn't have the talent to put up in a debate in Scotland.
Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.
But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.
Perhaps Cameron can try a couple more photos with kittens instead!
We've had some fruitcakes on this site but I don't think we've ever had anyone as evangelical and cultish as the SNP supporters. I hope they don't get themselves castrated and follow Hale- Bopp
Debate seems to have been viewed as a tedious snoreathon across the spectrum of Scottish political opinion with some grudging praise for Ruth D. Probably few beyond PBish viewers will have endured the whole 2 hours. Moustache Man (?????Mr Smithson )the only highlight!
Scottish commentators seem to see it as a fairly regular trading of punches. Westminster commentators seem to see a "awesome debate". Says what needs to be said about Westminster politics.
SMukesh Probably more a case of rich Tories on short breaks in Paris and NY, the Canaries, and the Med over the bank holiday weekend than anything significant
Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.
But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.
Mike,
The online polls are generally favourable to LAB.
I was on the knock yesterday in North London - a through and through Labour area - a quarter of respondents had people in the house on holiday. It's Easter, It's half term.
Hmm polls are zooming in again, 3 out of 4 most recent polls have Labour 2% ahead: Yougov has a 2% LAB lead, Populus has a 2% LAB lead, Survation has a 2% LAB lead.
Yes of course the Daily Telegraph - that bastion of journalism. Get a grip. The audience were on Murphy's back on the one debate that matters. Will Labour work with the SNP. Murphy prevaricated and the audience forced him to answer.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
SMukesh Probably more a case of rich Tories on short breaks in Paris and NY, the Canaries, and the Med over the bank holiday weekend than anything significant
STV studio assessment - the women have it. Obviously I agree. Certainly the Murphy was fourth followed by Rennie who was attacked on the coalition record for his prevarications.
Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.
But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.
Mike,
The online polls are generally favourable to LAB.
I was on the knock yesterday in North London - a through and through Labour area - a quarter of respondents had people in the house on holiday. It's Easter, It's half term.
Normality starts next week.
Are you a London Tory canvasser?A couple of questions:
1)Do you have a massive war chest as claimed.
2)Are you struggling with the number of volunteers as compared to previous elections?
Hmm polls are zooming in again, 3 out of 4 most recent polls have Labour 2% ahead: Yougov has a 2% LAB lead, Populus has a 2% LAB lead, Survation has a 2% LAB lead.
"I'll wait until after the Blair Witch Project goes away."
There's no downside for Labour with Blair's intervention (unless of course the Hague police turn up). He was very good and reminded me quite how mediocre and feeble Cameron is next to someone impressive
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
I love your doom and gloom Casino. It mirrors exactly what I feel about Labour. I doubt both of us can be right.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
Quite. I find the continued confidence of some Tories, and the lack of confidence from Labour supporters, pretty baffling, although at least the Labour supporters have dire polling in Scotland to fuel their pessimism. Tory optimism seems based entirely on what it seems should happen if things were only fair, ignoring that while late shifts can indeed happen, this is getting pretty darn late, and even the things that were supposed to cause a late shift (people actually seeing Ed M) do not appear to have had an impact.
I will not mind looking a fool for saying the Tories have almost no chance if I am proven wrong, as of the options I would prefer a Cameron premiership, but the 'just you wait' argument is starting to run out of steam I think.
With another debate tomorrow it will interesting if anything stated tonight is analysed and then attacked tomorrow. I think that Sturgeon will be glad that she will have support of the Greens and the comedy act of Colburn to take away some of the focus of the attacks from the other 3 parties.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
Don't despair many more twists and turns yet.
Still think Lab most seats at greater than 3.0 in a coin toss is good though
Tonight I have cut open the belly of a chicken fresh from the farm, scattered it's entrails on my special pagan alter and looked into the political future. Except for the bright purple hilltops and enclaves, all looks dark and mirky; provoking fresh elections in October 2015.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Fux sake.
Like I said,labour have had a good 3/4 days and with the front of the guardian story,more good news.
We can make all the excuses we want: if the Tories are to stay in power, they should be starting to post consistent leads by now.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Chill.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
I've been hearing that from Conservative supporters since October. After the conference... By Christmas.. In January... In February.. Due in March... Once the campaign starts..
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
I love your doom and gloom Casino. It mirrors exactly what I feel about Labour. I doubt both of us can be right.
We could be. Perhaps the British public, in their infinite wisdom, will exercise through some strange process of osmosis the result they really want: for both the Conservatives *and* Labour to lose.
A "sod the lot" of you result, with the Tories and Labour very close in seats, but neither able to form a stable government or do very much with it even if they do.
Comments
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.
The feasibility is irrelevant.
You are dreaming. Murphy was by far the worst of the performers - totally disliked by the audience, uselessly agressive and looks well just weird.
I hope there is an assessment poll on the night so that our completely diverse opinions can be tested. However I would place a lot of money if a book was available on Murphy being judged fourth. I thought his performance near disastrous.
@suttonnick: Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
Blair's toxic embrace
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
#GE2015 http://t.co/9N7wNWwzjA
BBC: SNP will make Miliband PM.
Tory bias, obviously.
There were only three panelists right?
https://twitter.com/EN_Somat/status/585550665130323969?lang=en-gb
Seems odd when 4 weeks still to go to the GE.
Scotslass is wrong though, he was not disliked by the audience.
More seriously, I am waiting for post Easter.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
That's worth about £30 right now
By the way that 35-33 is the same result as 2005.
EICIPM
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Latest YouGov poll (06 - 07 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+2)
CON - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 14% (+1)
LDEM - 8% (-2)
GRN - 5% (+1)
What about the Outcomes?
The Tories policies so far so minor like porn age verification I think most people had forgotten an hour after it was announced.
And the Lib Dems, tumbleweed....
Will be int to see if Bliar's intervention backfires as much as the Red Tops suggest it will. If so, has Blair deliberately shafted Miliband? Sadly he's not that humble. He genuinely believes the guff he spouts.
There is less than THIRTY days to go. Labour leads shouldn't even be featuring.
Ex-Pat is the tax hit needed.
Any UK citizen should be required to declare tax in the UK (net of any tax paid in their residency). Just like the US does.
Have fun living in Monaco or working in Dubai. But while you're a British Citizen and your family get UK Health and Education and other services, you pay full UK tax.
£20bn a year easy.
In 2010 she almost lost her deposit.
Wait until post easter bank holiday. Polls from next Monday.
Having said that, there have been big outlier polls over Easter / Bank holidays in the past - and neither Populus or YouGov show anything dramatic. Just one more Con voter and Populus would have only been a 1% Lab lead.
But even so, Con really need better polls over the next 7 days.
An empty vessel makes the most noise.
Over here we had to wait half an hour tops to get 3 post debate polls.
It wont make any difference to voting intentions.
Davidson was the best on the night. Murphy needed to do more but then the BBCs anointed one was never going to cut it. SLAB just doesn't have the talent to put up in a debate in Scotland.
Anyone who has to cite the KennyFarq is getting almost as desperate as Jim Murphy.
The only person booed was Murphy when he refused to answer the question on voting against the Tories - an exchange worth watching by the way.
But the way to judge a debate in the absence of polls - which unfortunately don't seem to be available - is by audience applause at the end.
On that basis there was only one winner tonight and it was not Mr Murphy who was a clear fourth.
Good luck with that arguement.
Give it up the Tories have lost the NHS argument from the day Lansley reforms were implemented
But I also think we will go backwards under a labour Government.
The online polls are generally favourable to LAB.
I was on the knock yesterday in North London - a through and through Labour area - a quarter of respondents had people in the house on holiday. It's Easter, It's half term.
Normality starts next week.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3029468/Father-six-imam-assassinated-London-street-Syrian-hit-squad-Fierce-critic-Assad-regime-slumped-car-chest-wounds-daylight-attack.html
Yougov has a 2% LAB lead, Populus has a 2% LAB lead, Survation has a 2% LAB lead.
You think the 27% rise in Agency is down to lifestyle choice not money though don;t you?
Why do you think your Trust and 80% of Acutes are in deficit compared to 1% in 2010?
Or are you an empty vessel in respect of explaining this.
Yes of course the Daily Telegraph - that bastion of journalism. Get a grip. The audience were on Murphy's back on the one debate that matters. Will Labour work with the SNP. Murphy prevaricated and the audience forced him to answer.
Now, it's due *from* Monday 13th April. Less than 4 weeks before polling day, and when some people will already have started receiving their ballot papers.
I don't doubt the Tories will pull ahead on votes on the day, but they've totally failed to win the values and brand argument with Labour. That will cost us all very, very heavily.
20 years ago,tories might have had a chance for this seat.
1)Do you have a massive war chest as claimed.
2)Are you struggling with the number of volunteers as compared to previous elections?
What's half a voodoo?
"I'll wait until after the Blair Witch Project goes away."
There's no downside for Labour with Blair's intervention (unless of course the Hague police turn up). He was very good and reminded me quite how mediocre and feeble Cameron is next to someone impressive
I will not mind looking a fool for saying the Tories have almost no chance if I am proven wrong, as of the options I would prefer a Cameron premiership, but the 'just you wait' argument is starting to run out of steam I think.
How is Labour going to meet the 4 hr target with attendences going up each year?
How is Labour going to spend the BCT fund?
How is Labour going to meet the cancer target?
How is Labour going to reduce the number of agency staff?
No answers... just a running down of hard working NHS staff by BJO.
I think that Sturgeon will be glad that she will have support of the Greens and the comedy act of Colburn to take away some of the focus of the attacks from the other 3 parties.
Still think Lab most seats at greater than 3.0 in a coin toss is good though
A "sod the lot" of you result, with the Tories and Labour very close in seats, but neither able to form a stable government or do very much with it even if they do.
The sunlit uplands of a blue dawn are looking more and more distant