politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holdin
Comments
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I would like to see them make more of this in weeks 4&5 but suspect they won'tDair said:
If they did they might lock the SNP out by winning a majority from E&W alone.bigjohnowls said:
Not shouting it from the rooftops yet are they.Dair said:
So the SNP are right and Labour are too scared to say it.Speedy said:
He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.Tykejohnno said:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?0 -
SNP at 51% on Seats, 40% on List (significant SNP to Green switching). Current SNP prediction of 68 FPTP seats is pretty much spot on. That's a majority without the Green list backing.Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 39-42% in the latest polls for the list and 44-46% for the constituencies.0 -
Ave it projects CON GAIN Brecon & Radnor!MikeL said:
LDs on 12% in Mid & West Wales.chestnut said:http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auo5bkkble/SunResults_150331_WelshVI_website_V1.pdf
Tories move 9 points clear with Welsh pensioners and now lead in West, Mid and North Wales.
What does that mean for Brecon & Radnor and Ceredigion?0 -
Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe
Verdict (/10): Rennie 3 (plodding), Murphy 7 (fine but flat), Sturgeon 7 (worse than last week), Davidson 9 (showed Cameron how to do it).
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Winning a debate with a badly chosen audience and despite being the least likely to do well.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
Yeah not good at all
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Nope, every gain on the FPTP is taken from the list in order to make the result approximately proportional using the D'Hond method.Carnyx said:
You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 44%-46% in the latest polls.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx0 -
Saltire Short of another Falklands invasion or a banks collapse or a huge scandal involving a party leader I can't see anything to give the 2 main parties a majority0
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I'm miles behind, great line for SNP from Ruth though "We signed up for £30 million of cuts, so did Labour, so did the Lib Dems."0
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See the opinion polls here:Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 39-42% in the latest polls for the list and 44-46% for the constituencies.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2016#Constituency_Vote_.28FPTP.29
SNP are up on FPTP and the the Greens up on the list part on the 2011 result
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Sturgeon was least likely to win the debate?Dair said:
Winning a debate with a badly chosen audience and despite being the least likely to do well.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
Yeah not good at all0 -
Agreed. Apart from dear old Willie they all had their moments and all took some incoming too. Antifrank is right that the outsider has an advantage but a background in the media clearly helps Ruth with something like this.Scott_P said:That was considerably better than last week
Jim Murphy finally remembered who he is really fighting. Better late than never.
Nicola Sturgeon is a very able debater although she was clearly unused to being challenged like that. Probably had the best closer.0 -
I don't buy the argument that Labour brought in a semi-proportional system in Holyrood as a "fiddle" to advantage themselves. In 1999, Labour got 53 constituencies and 3 list seats. Dewar had no reason to believe that ratio would change significantly during his tenure.Carnyx said:
You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.
I can only assume the reason we ended up with the fudged system that we have was as a result of Labour concessions to the Lib Dems.0 -
Except when you win all the FPTP seats.Speedy said:
Nope, every gain on the FPTP is taken from the list in order to make the result approximately proportional using the D'Hond method.Carnyx said:
You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 44%-46% in the latest polls.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx0 -
" A badly chosen audience" ...you mean one that dares to disagree with the Nats!!Dair said:
Winning a debate with a badly chosen audience and despite being the least likely to do well.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
Yeah not good at all0 -
Only £30 Million not £30 BillionPulpstar said:I'm miles behind, great line for SNP from Ruth though "We signed up for £30 million of cuts, so did Labour, so did the Lib Dems."
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If the SNP were to take every FPTP seat then they would have a majority regardless of the list top up for other parties.Speedy said:
Nope, every gain on the FPTP is taken from the list in order to make the result approximately proportional using the D'Hond method.Carnyx said:
You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 44%-46% in the latest polls.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx0 -
Yeah, it's why she can';t win a debate like that. Sure she can be the best for poise, for relating her arguments, for all the other measures. But in Perception she will always end up backing the SNP and losing out.Pulpstar said:I'm miles behind, great line for SNP from Ruth though "We signed up for £30 million of cuts, so did Labour, so did the Lib Dems."
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@chrismccork: Clear win tonight for each of the candidates, with each of the others badly exposed.
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If Ruth Davidson was at Westminster,cameron should be worried,very impressive.0
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Thanks for proving my numbers.Saltire said:
See the opinion polls here:Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:
SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 39-42% in the latest polls for the list and 44-46% for the constituencies.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2016#Constituency_Vote_.28FPTP.29
SNP are up on FPTP and the the Greens up on the list part on the 2011 result0 -
Blair supports Ed 100%
Bloody Hell thats a bigger whopper than 45 min claim!0 -
Well scotland has got a new celebrity.
#moustacheman
Moustache man Danny MacAfee tells @PeterAdamSmith he wore the fake moustache because politics is 'boring'. He says he doesn't know how much of a celebrity he's become.0 -
Nothing to gain, everything to lose and as the "media favourite" anything not going her way (like the opening 10 minutes) stands out far more than it will have an effect.Speedy said:
Sturgeon was least likely to win the debate?Dair said:
Winning a debate with a badly chosen audience and despite being the least likely to do well.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
Yeah not good at all0 -
How do we know Nicola got stuffed?
@PeteWishart: We will remember that simply as the 'Moustache Debate'. Rotten format and sagged too often. #ScotDebates
My favourite result of the Indyref was Perth...0 -
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
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Murphy and Davidson both did well but i'm not sure if it will make any difference.0
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GoodTykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
This is going to be interesting how he makes that legal and water tight.Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
No I mean an audience with more than 30 Tories and 50 Labourites in the 200 invited and less than 95 SNP. Clearly didn't reflect Scotland - and it was announced before it was deliberately gerrymandered not to by including "a reflection of the previous election".franklyn said:
" A badly chosen audience" ...you mean one that dares to disagree with the Nats!!Dair said:
Winning a debate with a badly chosen audience and despite being the least likely to do well.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
Yeah not good at all
Or you think the "undecided" voter who was "i'm totally voting for Jim Murphy I believe everything he says and I'm 100% going to vote Labour" was not a Labourite plant.0 -
That is massive.No wonder businessmen don`t like him.Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
Worst Quarterly Performance for a decade by NHS A&E.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
How would that even work?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
It kind of highlights the potential for the tories here in Perth snd North Perthshire but I suspect that Mr Wishart will have an increased majority despite DavidL's best efforts in Blairgowrie over the weekend.Scott_P said:How do we know Nicola got stuffed?
@PeteWishart: We will remember that simply as the 'Moustache Debate'. Rotten format and sagged too often. #ScotDebates
My favourite result of the Indyref was Perth...0 -
This could win it for Labour.0
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Dair Even on present polls the SNP is only on 45%, the Tories and Labour combined about the same0
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The best liars are those ones that actually believe them. But there is a very thin line between believing one's own words and being a narcissistic psychopath.bigjohnowls said:Blair supports Ed 100%
Bloody Hell thats a bigger whopper than 45 min claim!
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@pressjournal: Sturgeon booed when she admitted independence might not be off the agenda in future #ScotDebates http://t.co/a2AcQbEoQb0
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Work? What on Earth makes you think Ed cares about the practicalities or has done his homework? Ed's "policies" are only meant to appeal to vaguely leftish voters not actually have good outcomes.MaxPB said:
How would that even work?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
I doubt if they would back up Labours Plans for a mansion tax since I think Labour plans to nick that one from the Lib Dems. Not even those Nats who want to take revenge on those they perceived as having voted No.HYUFD said:Itwasrigged Well the SNP have promised to back all other Labour tax increases, and SNP plans for a local income tax could well lead to cost increases
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@gabyhinsliff: So takehome lesson for next UK leaders' debate: Nicola Sturgeon does less well when challenged than when given totally free rein. Amazingly.0
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NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
Got to say,labour have hit the news headlines for the last 3 or 4 days,on policy or putting the tories on the back foot.SMukesh said:
That is massive.No wonder businessmen don`t like him.Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
Tories need to respond.
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I agree that the audience seemed a bit "right-wing", but the ratio you describe is pretty much in line with polls. YouGov in yesterday's Sun had SNP 46%, Labour 29%, Tories 16%.Dair said:No I mean an audience with more than 30 Tories and 50 Labourites in the 200 invited and less than 95 SNP. Clearly didn't reflect Scotland - and it was announced before it was deliberately gerrymandered not to by including "a reflection of the previous election".
Or you think the "undecided" voter who was "i'm totally voting for Jim Murphy I believe everything he says and I'm 100% going to vote Labour" was not a Labourite plant.0 -
MaxPB said:
How would that even work?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk
George Eaton ✔ @georgeeaton
NS story embargoed until midnight but it's out now: Miliband will tomorrow pledge to abolish non-dom tax status. https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/585549240904065025 …
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50% more people waiting over 18 weeks than in 2010
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
Davidson was the best tonight, poor Willie was last. Sturgeon poorer tonight but then she isn't Salmond who is more attack minded. Murphy didn't do enough, the question is can he and I don't think he can.
Will it make any difference at all to voting intentions? - None at all!0 -
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
Blair's toxic embrace
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
#GE2015 pic.twitter.com/9N7wNWwzjA
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Cancer targets missed for 5th successive quarter
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
Could firm up the Tory vote, which is no bad thing at all for the SNP.Itwasrigged said:Davidson was the best tonight, poor Willie was last. Sturgeon poorer tonight but then she isn't Salmond who is more attack minded. Murphy didn't do enough, the question is can he and I don't think he can.
Will it make any difference at all to voting intentions? - None at all!0 -
BBC's most read suggests that no one is really watching the election.Tykejohnno said:Tories need to respond.
People on holidays, kids on half term, certainly.
Minds already made up, possibly.
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I see Cameron snuck into tonight's debate in disguise
https://twitter.com/EN_Somat/status/585550665130323969?lang=en-gb0 -
80% of Acute Hospitals in deficit compared to 1% in 2010
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
I think there is something like 120K non dom tax payers in the UK. How many of them would leave if this was brought in? How many head office of back office jobs would they take with them? Would we be ahead or behind on the change?
I instinctively dislike things like non dom and there are some fairly absurd examples of UK born non doms who have been deemed to have severed all links (apart from having their kids at school here) but this is a really complicated question that bears on the competitiveness of the City and its role as a World Centre for finance. It really isn't suitable for another sound bite off the cuff headline from Ed.0 -
There is little change in the polls since the 2011 Holyrood election, the results back then where on the constituency part SNP 45, LAB 32, CON 14, LD 8, the polls indicate for 2016 SNP 46, LAB 26, CON 13, LD 5.Alistair said:
If the SNP were to take every FPTP seat then they would have a majority regardless of the list top up for other parties.Speedy said:
Nope, every gain on the FPTP is taken from the list in order to make the result approximately proportional using the D'Hond method.Carnyx said:
You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.Speedy said:
You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.Dair said:Speedy said:
Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.Monkeys said:
Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.Speedy said:
Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?Saltire said:
Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.HYUFD said:Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
Also the SNP is not on 51% but 44%-46% in the latest polls.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx
So a 3% swing from Labour to the SNP which will mean that the SNP will get some small gains in the constituency front but no way they are going to get close to 65 constituency seats, however they will lose more seats due to UKIP&GRN getting list seats.0 -
Attempting to be balanced.
Nicola had a pretty hard opening, got very unlucky with the "using debating tactics is horrible" audience input and missed a few opportunities. As it went on she got stronger, by far the best closer, held her own in between.
Murphy gave the most saccharin terrible opener that I really don;t think goes down as well with the public as politicians thing. The whole "crying in front of me" doesn't work. He nearly belted Davidson in the middle, he has a terrible temper (not great for a guy with a glass jaw). Most of the hits he took were from Davidson and he knew it but his bluster on the "will you vote down the Tories" will get a headline in the National. Rest of the press will ignore it and say he did well.
Davidson was the star, nearly let herself lose control in the middle but impressed an audience which wasn't properly selected. Even without the audience help she got good hits in on both Murphy and Sturgeon while Sturgeon mainly ignored her. Probably edged it in terms of "who debated best" probably edged out by Sturgeon in "audience perception".
There was some other guy there, I think. Not sure what he said.0 -
Erm. How many other countries allow non domiciled status?MaxPB said:
How would that even work?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Guardian front page:
‘We’ll end non-dom tax status’ - Miliband
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oV5xi1nrqk0 -
It's due to the fantastic sick pay in the NHS. My wife is a nurse and normally 10-20% of the staff are off sick at anyone time. she also does bank work at the hospital and could easily work 24/7 365 days a year. Where I work there is no sick pay . Our sickness rate is less than 0.1%bigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
I think tomorrow nights one on the BBC with Coburn and Harvie will be livelier. Is there any footie on? 0
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The news coverage for me as seen labour on the front foot,maybe hitting the tories in the last few polls ?chestnut said:
BBC's most read suggests that no one is really watching the election.Tykejohnno said:Tories need to respond.
People on holidays, kids on half term, certainly.
Minds already made up, possibly.
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Surely in Blairgowrie the soft fruit farmers will all be attracted to Mr Coburn?Saltire said:
It kind of highlights the potential for the tories here in Perth snd North Perthshire but I suspect that Mr Wishart will have an increased majority despite DavidL's best efforts in Blairgowrie over the weekend.Scott_P said:How do we know Nicola got stuffed?
@PeteWishart: We will remember that simply as the 'Moustache Debate'. Rotten format and sagged too often. #ScotDebates
My favourite result of the Indyref was Perth...0 -
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 13m13 minutes ago
We found the #MoustacheMan who went viral during the #ScotDebates http://www.mirror.co.uk/usvsth3m/moustache-man-revealed-audience-member-5475871 …0 -
Has NHS sick pay changed in the last year then or is what you are saying irrelevant.,currystar said:
It's due to the fantastic sick pay in the NHS. My wife is a nurse and normally 10-20% of the staff are off sick at anyone time. she also does bank work at the hospital and could easily work 24/7 365 days a year. Where I work there is no sick pay . Our sickness rate is less than 0.1%bigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
My wife is in the NHS and changing Departments-technically she is now "temporary" staffbigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
Why?
Because it has taken 4 weeks to sort out her internal references and her new Dept are desperate for her to start work.
Her references are still not complete and she will be temporary staff for at least another month.
So don't believe all the stats back up your own view-the NHS is a monster of a bureaucracy that needs major reform.0 -
That could move votes alright away from Labour.Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
Blair's toxic embrace
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
#GE2015 pic.twitter.com/9N7wNWwzjA0 -
I agree. Need to keep trying though.Saltire said:
It kind of highlights the potential for the tories here in Perth snd North Perthshire but I suspect that Mr Wishart will have an increased majority despite DavidL's best efforts in Blairgowrie over the weekend.Scott_P said:How do we know Nicola got stuffed?
@PeteWishart: We will remember that simply as the 'Moustache Debate'. Rotten format and sagged too often. #ScotDebates
My favourite result of the Indyref was Perth...0 -
Labour had to hit back as Tories were supreme in the 1st quarter of the game.Tykejohnno said:
The news coverage for me as seen labour on the front foot,maybe hitting the tories in the last few polls ?chestnut said:
BBC's most read suggests that no one is really watching the election.Tykejohnno said:Tories need to respond.
People on holidays, kids on half term, certainly.
Minds already made up, possibly.
But the real problem for the Tories they will miss the extensive coverage of the debates around the 16th.0 -
Why is it irrelevant?Freggles said:
Has NHS sick pay changed in the last year then or is what you are saying irrelevant.,currystar said:
It's due to the fantastic sick pay in the NHS. My wife is a nurse and normally 10-20% of the staff are off sick at anyone time. she also does bank work at the hospital and could easily work 24/7 365 days a year. Where I work there is no sick pay . Our sickness rate is less than 0.1%bigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
NEW THREAD0
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Tory vote doesn't need firming. The heat has dissipated and the concrete has set.Pulpstar said:
Could firm up the Tory vote, which is no bad thing at all for the SNP.Itwasrigged said:Davidson was the best tonight, poor Willie was last. Sturgeon poorer tonight but then she isn't Salmond who is more attack minded. Murphy didn't do enough, the question is can he and I don't think he can.
Will it make any difference at all to voting intentions? - None at all!0 -
Because we are talking about change over time. If you are saying good sick pay caused the high levels of sickness absence in 2014, why were they not as high in 2013 under the same system?currystar said:
Why is it irrelevant?Freggles said:
Has NHS sick pay changed in the last year then or is what you are saying irrelevant.,currystar said:
It's due to the fantastic sick pay in the NHS. My wife is a nurse and normally 10-20% of the staff are off sick at anyone time. she also does bank work at the hospital and could easily work 24/7 365 days a year. Where I work there is no sick pay . Our sickness rate is less than 0.1%bigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS0 -
Agreed on all points except the sick rates:-currystar said:
It's due to the fantastic sick pay in the NHS. My wife is a nurse and normally 10-20% of the staff are off sick at anyone time. she also does bank work at the hospital and could easily work 24/7 365 days a year. Where I work there is no sick pay . Our sickness rate is less than 0.1%bigjohnowls said:NHS temporary staff costs up 27% in a year.
Are we allowed to mention that or will it be weaponising the NHS
It increases with seniority
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I think the intervention of Blair today in the election will do more to alter voting intentions. It will drive off anybody who had toyed with voting for Labour, voters they need. The Project Fear style threats about withdrawal from EU will only piss folk off. I don't think the English will suffer that nonsense the way the Scots did. Oh and Blair is toxic in Scotland, he doesn't do Labour any favours entering the election.0
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Non-dom isn't hte tax hit the UK needs.
Ex-Pat is the tax hit needed.
Any UK citizen should be required to declare tax in the UK (net of any tax paid in their residency). Just like the US does.
Have fun living in Monaco or working in Dubai. But while you're a British Citizen and your family get UK Health and Education and other services, you pay full UK tax.
£20bn a year easy.0 -
Yes, I'm sure the policies that would lose them their entire workforce are very enticing....:-)Dair said:
Surely in Blairgowrie the soft fruit farmers will all be attracted to Mr Coburn?Saltire said:
It kind of highlights the potential for the tories here in Perth snd North Perthshire but I suspect that Mr Wishart will have an increased majority despite DavidL's best efforts in Blairgowrie over the weekend.Scott_P said:How do we know Nicola got stuffed?
@PeteWishart: We will remember that simply as the 'Moustache Debate'. Rotten format and sagged too often. #ScotDebates
My favourite result of the Indyref was Perth...0 -
I'm sure there are only a very small minority who are in the situation you describe, resident overseas but sending their kids to school in the UK. I think the US has an exemption for anyone earning under $100,000 (or there abouts). What's the source of the £20bn figure.Dair said:Non-dom isn't hte tax hit the UK needs.
Ex-Pat is the tax hit needed.
Any UK citizen should be required to declare tax in the UK (net of any tax paid in their residency). Just like the US does.
Have fun living in Monaco or working in Dubai. But while you're a British Citizen and your family get UK Health and Education and other services, you pay full UK tax.
£20bn a year easy.0 -
Ukip linking Dave w Tone via Daves idolisation
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
07/04/2015 22:38
Ukip back up to 14% on YouGov tonight. Probably not what the Heir to Blair had in mind when he made his "come home" plea.0 -
Damn O'Flynn sounds desperate.isam said:Ukip linking Dave w Tone via Daves idolisation
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
07/04/2015 22:38
Ukip back up to 14% on YouGov tonight. Probably not what the Heir to Blair had in mind when he made his "come home" plea.0
