@patrickwintour: Labour is launching its local election campaign today. Like many political events in this election, it is being conducted in total secrecy.
@tnewtondunn: .@patrickwintour we're used to Ed's cold shoulder now, but to cut out the Grauniad too is quite something.
So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!
Of course there are compensations elsewhere. Though David Ward & George Galloway may scupper two of the intended.
Greece: "Fitch downgraded Greek debt further into “junk” territory (pushing the two-year yield up to 22.3%); - the Vice-Chairman of the Bavarian CSU (sister party to Merkel’s CDU), Peter Gauweiler, resigned in protest against what he sees as Germany succumbing to Greek ‘blackmail’; - Tsipras announced that he is flying to Moscow to meet Putin ahead of the Orthodox Easter holiday (which will please his strongly pro-Russian Foreign Minister, Nikos Kotzias, though it will infuriate the Germans); and - ex-PM Samaras announced that he is willing to enter a “government of national unity”, if that is what it takes to keep Greece in the euro."
Europe: - that automobile sales in Germany were up 20% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, while retail sales were up 11.5% in real terms year-on-year; - that retail sales in Spain were up again in March, for the seventh straight month; and - that, in Italy, both the consumer and business confidence indices jumped sharply in March – the former from 107.7 to 110.9, and the latter from 97.5 to 103.
UK: To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.
I'm struggling to think how Tony Blair could have intervened in the election in a more helpful way for David Cameron while still remaining nominally loyal to Labour. The constituency of pro-EU floating voters is small. The constituency of Eurosceptic floating voters is considerably larger.
Do the "Blairites" seriously think being rabidly pro-EU is a good card to play with the electorate? I'm always hearing that prat Chuka Umunna going on about it too.
I'm struggling to think how Tony Blair could have intervened in the election in a more helpful way for David Cameron while still remaining nominally loyal to Labour. The constituency of pro-EU floating voters is small. The constituency of Eurosceptic floating voters is considerably larger.
Ed Miliband's courageous approach to Syria was the greatest bit of Middle East policy since I decided to invade Iraq
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Do the "Blairites" seriously think being rabidly pro-EU is a good card to play with the electorate? I'm always hearing that prat Chuka Umunna going on about it too.
People should remember twice fought election to Parliament, promising to leave the EU.
Does anyone have the figures for 2010 by any chance? These figures are only really useful if we know what the starting point is.
Is Israel even really one of the main motivating factors for British Jews anyway? The Democrats still clean up with Jews in the US despite being (marginally) the less Israel-friendly party.
Just catching up on some past threads and have read the Thanet S one with interest
I went on walking tour of Ramsgate on Sunday (Ramsgate Blitz tours-very interesting!) so spent 2 hours walking around the town-predominantly either side of the High Street. These should be strong Labour areas and an area Farage would hope to gain some support in.
I spotted: one UKIP poster in a house window, two Tory posters in different houses one green poster in a house. Not a single Labour poster in sight,
In addition the farmer who has the land along the Manston road going into Broadstairs has allowed the Conservatives to put the huge road side boards up, last time they were backing UKIP.
I know I keep saying it but the polls in Thanet S just don't seem right, Labour are making no effort and are invisible-all the main poster sites with Election posters only have UKIP or Conservative posters.
If Labour really are within a point or two of the lead then they have been utterly inept in this campaign as they could have retaken the seat with even a modicum of effort.
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!
Of course there are compensations elsewhere. Though David Ward & George Galloway may scupper two of the intended.
If Ward ran as an independent or defected to Respect I reckon he could win Bradford East, but dunno as as a Lib Dem. I'm on Labour here at 1-8 anyway (So hopefully not...) and it feels like a pretty awful bet with everything that's been said here !
The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.
@iainmartin1: In Scotland BBC have surveyed voters. They want big increases in public spending, no cuts, higher pay. All paid for with magic money tree.
Hmmm, who might be standing on that sort of policy platform...?
@iainmartin1: In Scotland BBC have surveyed voters. They want big increases in public spending, no cuts, higher pay. All paid for with magic money tree.
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.
But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.
I think it was defining coastline that proved to be the barrier to answering this question the last time I thought of it. The Ordnance Survey seem to provide a solution, though. They draw a coastline boundary onto the Westminster constituencies, whereas in other places the river estuary has a line running up the middle of it to form a boundary between two constituencies. So one defines a coastal constituency as one that has an electoral boundary on that map which is not shared with another constituency. Thus Eastleigh and New Forest East are coastal constituencies, but Southampton Itchen is not.
This gets me to a total of 103 coastal constituencies, out of 533 for England as a whole.
I hadn't noticed the boundaries on the OS online maps, and that seems like an excellent way of calculating it. Thanks.
(And thanks to Rod too: although your figure is different. ;-) )
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.
Not counting in Northumberland until Friday at 9:00. Pathetic. At least the LibDems will be able to hold onto Berwick for a few extra hours.
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.
Anyone know what the rules are for re-counts?
Is it an issue of %'s or number of votes? I am also looking for a market for the number of constituency re-counts, anybody got any suggestions?
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
OT. Jessop. With your Turkish connections it's worth seeing 'The Water Diviner' directed by Russell Crowe. Most of it set in Istanbul in the 20's. I've been to Istanbul many times and it's one of my favourite cities and this had a strange flavour of the place which make me feel quite nostalgic
Thanks for that; I knew he had a film out, but not what it was about. I don't know Istanbul at all well; Mrs J's parents live in Ankara, which is not a particularly picturesque or atmospheric place.
Sadly we haven't been to see a film since the little 'un was born, so it's probably something we'll have to catch on DVD.
As another off-topic aside, the little 'un is nine months old now, and generally prefers books to TV (although he chews the books rather than read them). But often when the adverts come on TV he stares at them, rapt, only looking away once the program restarts.
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.
The party’s foot-soldiers are instructed to appear “level-headed”, to not stand too close to people’s front doors and to express their admiration for voters’ homes.
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
I am astonished when they have told me this- one living in Hale Barns, and one in Tunbridge Wells, possibly amongst the safest places in the world to live. But if they are this irrational, it explains somewhat why the Israel state think it's just to pulverise a civilian enclave in response to a limited barrage of misfiring, home made rockets.
The party’s foot-soldiers are instructed to appear “level-headed”, to not stand too close to people’s front doors and to express their admiration for voters’ homes.
'I love your gas barbecue and patio heaters! Wow, you've got Air Con too. Would you consider voting for the Greens?'
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.
Hmmm...
I'd stick with it, Labour are trying very hard in the seat.
Hopefully we'll get a constituency poll before the election.
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
I am astonished when they have told me this- one living in Hale Barns, and one in Tunbridge Wells, possibly amongst the safest places in the world to live. But if they are this irrational, it explains somewhat why the Israel state think it's just to pulverise a civilian enclave in response to a limited barrage of misfiring, home made rockets.
1) The firing is not limited - unless 4,000 in 2014 alone is 'limited'. 2) They are generally not 'home made'; they are made in small workshops, or bought in from countries like Iran. 3) I bet if they were regularly fired towards your home, your attitude would be different. Whether the were 'home made' or not.
Given everything that has happened to Jews in the last couple of centuries, I think they have a right to be slightly irrational about their own security. For instance in 1900 there were 50,000 Jews in Baghdad alone. Things got rapidly worse for them from the 1930s onwards.
Present estimates of the Jewish population in Baghdad are eight (2007),[41] seven (2008)[42] and five (2013). Among the American forces stationed in Iraq, there were only three Jewish chaplains
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Former Blairite DH seems as bemused by the second coming as anyone else:
But Labour’s entire political strategy has been based on the following premise – it was time to move on from Tony Blair and New Labour. Now, some people may disagree with that premise and strategy. Other people may endorse it. But what should be clear to everyone is that having spent five years rubbishing Tony Blair and all his works, Ed Miliband cannot suddenly turn around four weeks from polling day and say “Look! My good friend Tony Blair is backing me! You should back me too!”
@Roger Disregarding "Godwins Law", reprisals, herding people into enclaves, and appropriating their land, are no doubt justifiable. After all, look at the injustices they suffered at the hands of people who did the same things to them with no valid reason?
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out. So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.
This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
Tony Blair's intervention has been rather smart. Nothing gets the feathers flying in the Tory Party like talk of Europe.
And who better to get it talked about?
That's one way of looking at it. Another way though would be that this moves the debate onto territory that is better for the Tories than Labour. Cynics might even suggest that's the idea behind the intervention. I'm sitting on the fence.
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out. So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...
Read 'The Unholy Land' one of the better historical books on the conflict and then you might learn a little background and we wouldn't have to face your ignorant prejudices
Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.
This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
The current answer seems to be "neither".
I think the Jewish inhabitants of the settlements in the West Bank are citizens of Israel, with a vote in their elections.
Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.
This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.
226-250 @ 11/2 [general] 201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]
Thanks, I've got the 226-250 band covered so the 201-225 band looks good @ 18-1. Sub 200 looks tricky to me.
Read 'The Unholy Land' one of the better historical books on the conflict and then you might learn a little background and we wouldn't have to face your ignorant prejudices
I've read many books on it, thanks. They generally make quite depressing reading. As for ignorant prejudices: it'd be easy to throw that back in your direction as well. But there's little point, as neither of us will learn anything from it.
Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.
This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
If Lab really do need 40 to stand still, if you look at this list, then that takes you, roughly, to seats where the swing is around 3.4%. That doesn't seem too difficult given the collapse in LD votes in this constituencies. I'm sticking to my Lab minority bets.
UK: To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.
A country doesn't shrink or grow via foreign policy (unless in a WW1 scenario). It shrinks or grows due to economic policy. Fleets of aircraft carriers and the like are merely an outward expression of inner wealth.
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
It is very dangerous to have an input that is influenced by the output unless you want to make a feedback model.
So Baxter's forecast is directly influenced by the betting market which is influenced by his forecast, so it's caught in a feedback loop. Unless the thought that the betting market can directly influence the election results by the same amount is valid, if not then his forecast has to be discounted.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
The current answer seems to be "neither".
Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
Surprised to see the old war criminal Tony Blair has resurfaced and is presently cluttering up the airwaves – Not sure if this is a wise move by Ed, I’d have thunk it best to let sleeping dogs lie.
Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out. So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...
It strikes me as some clever stabilisers Baxter has thought up to keep his prediction within the range. I expect all the predictors to start converging closely in the last 2 weeks (including Jack's ARSE). Around which number, I really don't know. I expect the Tories to pull out a significant gap (I hope not, but I think they might)- but I wouldn't bet on my instinct.
I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.
He certainly is correct about chaos for two years if the Conservatives win the General Election. As the EU referendum will dominate government business for two years and many years after.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
The current answer seems to be "neither".
Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO. In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
Surprised to see the old war criminal Tony Blair has resurfaced and is presently cluttering up the airwaves – Not sure if this is a wise move by Ed, I’d have thunk it best to let sleeping dogs lie.
It's probably the biggest tactical mistake made so far during this campaign. The overwhelming majority hate Blair, especially among his own party, and for a good reason too.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
The current answer seems to be "neither".
Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO. In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
Is this the sort of 'united republic' solution the SNP would approve of?
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?
The current answer seems to be "neither".
Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO. In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
Lebanon and Bosnia have been unparalleled success stories, proof diversity is a strength.
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Let me rephrase that: "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
I am not sure that is quite correct. I understand the main reason Jews were kicked out of other Middle Eastern nations was because of anger over Israel. If Israel was not formed, plenty of Jews would be living in other Middle Eastern nations.
I do agree with the idea that other Arab states are no more moral than Israel. But I do not think that is the question. The question is whether Israel is behaving in unacceptable ways that delegitimise it as a democratic power. The permanent occupation over another people, and the slow annexation of their land, suggests it is. And I say this as a great admirer of the Jews.
Comments
@tnewtondunn: .@patrickwintour we're used to Ed's cold shoulder now, but to cut out the Grauniad too is quite something.
@MrHarryCole: #WheresMili? Well they're not going to tell you. http://t.co/ijgTlw8dHR
Greece:
"Fitch downgraded Greek debt further into “junk” territory (pushing the two-year yield up to 22.3%);
- the Vice-Chairman of the Bavarian CSU (sister party to Merkel’s CDU), Peter Gauweiler, resigned in protest against what he sees as Germany succumbing to Greek ‘blackmail’;
- Tsipras announced that he is flying to Moscow to meet Putin ahead of the Orthodox Easter holiday (which will please his strongly pro-Russian Foreign Minister, Nikos Kotzias, though it will infuriate the Germans); and
- ex-PM Samaras announced that he is willing to enter a “government of national unity”, if that is what it takes to keep Greece in the euro."
Europe:
- that automobile sales in Germany were up 20% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, while retail sales were up 11.5% in real terms year-on-year;
- that retail sales in Spain were up again in March, for the seventh straight month; and
- that, in Italy, both the consumer and business confidence indices jumped sharply in March – the former from 107.7 to 110.9, and the latter from 97.5 to 103.
UK:
To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.
The Conservatives obtain a copy of a letter from doctors which they say is evidence that Labour is trying to 'weaponise' the NHS
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11520007/Tories-accuse-Labour-of-orchestrating-stitch-up-letter-from-doctors.html
"It was that bacon butty that did it for him with Jewish voters."
I wonder if Cameron will sponsor a kosher food bank? That should seal the deal
Like Crassus at Carrhae, Blair's idiocy will put us off action even when it's needed.
I wonder how much coverage south of the border the Caledonian conflab will get.
Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
Is Israel even really one of the main motivating factors for British Jews anyway? The Democrats still clean up with Jews in the US despite being (marginally) the less Israel-friendly party.
I went on walking tour of Ramsgate on Sunday (Ramsgate Blitz tours-very interesting!) so spent 2 hours walking around the town-predominantly either side of the High Street. These should be strong Labour areas and an area Farage would hope to gain some support in.
I spotted:
one UKIP poster in a house window,
two Tory posters in different houses
one green poster in a house.
Not a single Labour poster in sight,
In addition the farmer who has the land along the Manston road going into Broadstairs has allowed the Conservatives to put the huge road side boards up, last time they were backing UKIP.
I know I keep saying it but the polls in Thanet S just don't seem right, Labour are making no effort and are invisible-all the main poster sites with Election posters only have UKIP or Conservative posters.
If Labour really are within a point or two of the lead then they have been utterly inept in this campaign as they could have retaken the seat with even a modicum of effort.
Seem to remember in 2010 they did two per week.
Is it that labour is perceived as the party of choice for radical followers of islam?
Hmmm, who might be standing on that sort of policy platform...?
Back in 2010 The Sunday Telegraph commissioned an ICM poll weekly, I think they'll be continuing with the Wisdom Index.
You may as well ask people would you like some free money.
I mean why not ask people "would you like to win the lottery?"
"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."
I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
Looks like it could be significant - very large sample size of 5,000.
But I've googled it and can't find any other reference to it.
(And thanks to Rod too: although your figure is different. ;-) )
"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/General-Election-Poll-Tables.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump
Mr. 565, I make them every now and then
Mr. P, aye, they want to have the cake, eat the cake, and lose weight.
Is it an issue of %'s or number of votes?
I am also looking for a market for the number of constituency re-counts, anybody got any suggestions?
Thank you.
Sadly we haven't been to see a film since the little 'un was born, so it's probably something we'll have to catch on DVD.
As another off-topic aside, the little 'un is nine months old now, and generally prefers books to TV (although he chews the books rather than read them). But often when the adverts come on TV he stares at them, rapt, only looking away once the program restarts.
I did.
Green Party members told: dress in a 'mainsteam' manner, and don't stand too close to voters
Natalie Bennett's footsoldiers given advice on how to blend in with the public
http://tinyurl.com/H1tMeWithYourRhythmStick
Don't stand so
Don't stand so close to me
Hmmm...
On the flip side, we should get both ICM and Ipsos Mori next week.
And the ComRes phone poll too.
Which means four phone polls in short order
Hopefully we'll get a constituency poll before the election.
He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
2) They are generally not 'home made'; they are made in small workshops, or bought in from countries like Iran.
3) I bet if they were regularly fired towards your home, your attitude would be different. Whether the were 'home made' or not.
Given everything that has happened to Jews in the last couple of centuries, I think they have a right to be slightly irrational about their own security. For instance in 1900 there were 50,000 Jews in Baghdad alone. Things got rapidly worse for them from the 1930s onwards. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Iraq#The_state_of_Iraq
Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ...
"Also - Con GAIN Gateshead is not really the best bet to make."
Bury South would be even better. Cons 9/1!!
"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "
Enough of your right wing drivel
If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
Disregarding "Godwins Law", reprisals, herding people into enclaves, and appropriating their land, are no doubt justifiable.
After all, look at the injustices they suffered at the hands of people who did the same things to them with no valid reason?
And who better to get it talked about?
So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
"If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."
And continue to ~3000 BC ...
If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.
I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
Read 'The Unholy Land' one of the better historical books on the conflict and then you might learn a little background and we wouldn't have to face your ignorant prejudices
226-250 @ 11/2 [general]
201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]
The current answer seems to be "neither".
(I want to see if my Tory lead in ELBOW isn't just a statistical blip!)
If Lab really do need 40 to stand still, if you look at this list, then that takes you, roughly, to seats where the swing is around 3.4%. That doesn't seem too difficult given the collapse in LD votes in this constituencies. I'm sticking to my Lab minority bets.
So Baxter's forecast is directly influenced by the betting market which is influenced by his forecast, so it's caught in a feedback loop. Unless the thought that the betting market can directly influence the election results by the same amount is valid, if not then his forecast has to be discounted.
Surprised to see the old war criminal Tony Blair has resurfaced and is presently cluttering up the airwaves – Not sure if this is a wise move by Ed, I’d have thunk it best to let sleeping dogs lie.
As the EU referendum will dominate government business for two years and many years after.
In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
The overwhelming majority hate Blair, especially among his own party, and for a good reason too.
It's worse than the Bush endorsement equivalent in 2008:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b42huEAUulY
Miliband should try to run away as fast as he can.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB_UrZTWgAAg_6p.jpg:large
The voxpops on Sky were unanimous
Of course all of the above is just a theory, a conspiracy theory.
http://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/newspaper-advertisement-for-the-british-conservative-party-news-photo/92063310
(It says Richard Stanton of Brighton Council; and now Green. Oh.)
I do agree with the idea that other Arab states are no more moral than Israel. But I do not think that is the question. The question is whether Israel is behaving in unacceptable ways that delegitimise it as a democratic power. The permanent occupation over another people, and the slow annexation of their land, suggests it is. And I say this as a great admirer of the Jews.