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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holdin

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @patrickwintour: Labour is launching its local election campaign today. Like many political events in this election, it is being conducted in total secrecy.

    @tnewtondunn: .@patrickwintour we're used to Ed's cold shoulder now, but to cut out the Grauniad too is quite something.

    @MrHarryCole: #WheresMili? Well they're not going to tell you. http://t.co/ijgTlw8dHR
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,876
    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,493
    Mr. 1000, cheers for that explanation :)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Roger said:

    TP

    "VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support"

    So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!

    Of course there are compensations elsewhere. Though David Ward & George Galloway may scupper two of the intended.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    From D Group Economic Weekly:

    Greece:
    "Fitch downgraded Greek debt further into “junk” territory (pushing the two-year yield up to 22.3%);
    - the Vice-Chairman of the Bavarian CSU (sister party to Merkel’s CDU), Peter Gauweiler, resigned in protest against what he sees as Germany succumbing to Greek ‘blackmail’;
    - Tsipras announced that he is flying to Moscow to meet Putin ahead of the Orthodox Easter holiday (which will please his strongly pro-Russian Foreign Minister, Nikos Kotzias, though it will infuriate the Germans); and
    - ex-PM Samaras announced that he is willing to enter a “government of national unity”, if that is what it takes to keep Greece in the euro."

    Europe:
    - that automobile sales in Germany were up 20% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, while retail sales were up 11.5% in real terms year-on-year;
    - that retail sales in Spain were up again in March, for the seventh straight month; and
    - that, in Italy, both the consumer and business confidence indices jumped sharply in March – the former from 107.7 to 110.9, and the latter from 97.5 to 103.

    UK:
    To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm struggling to think how Tony Blair could have intervened in the election in a more helpful way for David Cameron while still remaining nominally loyal to Labour. The constituency of pro-EU floating voters is small. The constituency of Eurosceptic floating voters is considerably larger.
  • Tories accuse Labour of orchestrating 'stitch up' letter from doctors

    The Conservatives obtain a copy of a letter from doctors which they say is evidence that Labour is trying to 'weaponise' the NHS

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11520007/Tories-accuse-Labour-of-orchestrating-stitch-up-letter-from-doctors.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Do the "Blairites" seriously think being rabidly pro-EU is a good card to play with the electorate? I'm always hearing that prat Chuka Umunna going on about it too.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    Eagle

    "It was that bacon butty that did it for him with Jewish voters."

    I wonder if Cameron will sponsor a kosher food bank? That should seal the deal
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,493
    Mr. Financier, the shadow of Blair's ill-conceived (and ill-funded) overseas adventures will haunt us a while yet.

    Like Crassus at Carrhae, Blair's idiocy will put us off action even when it's needed.

    I wonder how much coverage south of the border the Caledonian conflab will get.
  • antifrank said:

    I'm struggling to think how Tony Blair could have intervened in the election in a more helpful way for David Cameron while still remaining nominally loyal to Labour. The constituency of pro-EU floating voters is small. The constituency of Eurosceptic floating voters is considerably larger.

    Ed Miliband's courageous approach to Syria was the greatest bit of Middle East policy since I decided to invade Iraq
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,493
    Mr. 565, they may be trying to get the Conservatives (especially backbenchers) into banging on about it all the time.
  • Roger said:

    Eagle

    "It was that bacon butty that did it for him with Jewish voters."

    I wonder if Cameron will sponsor a kosher food bank? That should seal the deal

    I expect to see Dave visiting a Synagogue wearing the full skull cap this week.
  • Danny565 said:

    Do the "Blairites" seriously think being rabidly pro-EU is a good card to play with the electorate? I'm always hearing that prat Chuka Umunna going on about it too.

    People should remember twice fought election to Parliament, promising to leave the EU.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015

    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

    Does anyone have the figures for 2010 by any chance? These figures are only really useful if we know what the starting point is.

    Is Israel even really one of the main motivating factors for British Jews anyway? The Democrats still clean up with Jews in the US despite being (marginally) the less Israel-friendly party.
  • Just catching up on some past threads and have read the Thanet S one with interest

    I went on walking tour of Ramsgate on Sunday (Ramsgate Blitz tours-very interesting!) so spent 2 hours walking around the town-predominantly either side of the High Street. These should be strong Labour areas and an area Farage would hope to gain some support in.

    I spotted:
    one UKIP poster in a house window,
    two Tory posters in different houses
    one green poster in a house.
    Not a single Labour poster in sight,

    In addition the farmer who has the land along the Manston road going into Broadstairs has allowed the Conservatives to put the huge road side boards up, last time they were backing UKIP.

    I know I keep saying it but the polls in Thanet S just don't seem right, Labour are making no effort and are invisible-all the main poster sites with Election posters only have UKIP or Conservative posters.

    If Labour really are within a point or two of the lead then they have been utterly inept in this campaign as they could have retaken the seat with even a modicum of effort.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, they may be trying to get the Conservatives (especially backbenchers) into banging on about it all the time.

    That's a good point, actually.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.
  • tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,252
    edited April 2015

    Roger said:

    TP

    "VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support"

    So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!

    Of course there are compensations elsewhere. Though David Ward & George Galloway may scupper two of the intended.
    If Ward ran as an independent or defected to Respect I reckon he could win Bradford East, but dunno as as a Lib Dem. I'm on Labour here at 1-8 anyway (So hopefully not...) and it feels like a pretty awful bet with everything that's been said here !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
    How often will ICM then be polling?

    Seem to remember in 2010 they did two per week.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations. ''

    Is it that labour is perceived as the party of choice for radical followers of islam?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: In Scotland BBC have surveyed voters. They want big increases in public spending, no cuts, higher pay. All paid for with magic money tree.

    Hmmm, who might be standing on that sort of policy platform...?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: In Scotland BBC have surveyed voters. They want big increases in public spending, no cuts, higher pay. All paid for with magic money tree.

    Similar results would be found in England, IMO.
  • MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
    How often will ICM then be polling?

    Seem to remember in 2010 they did two per week.

    Once a week I fear.

    Back in 2010 The Sunday Telegraph commissioned an ICM poll weekly, I think they'll be continuing with the Wisdom Index.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    antifrank said:

    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

    I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Who on earth wouldn't want higher pay?

    You may as well ask people would you like some free money.

    I mean why not ask people "would you like to win the lottery?"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    edited April 2015
    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    edited April 2015

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html

    Looks like it could be significant - very large sample size of 5,000.

    But I've googled it and can't find any other reference to it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,424

    FPT:

    This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

    Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

    I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

    But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

    This might be of interest:
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
    I think it was defining coastline that proved to be the barrier to answering this question the last time I thought of it. The Ordnance Survey seem to provide a solution, though. They draw a coastline boundary onto the Westminster constituencies, whereas in other places the river estuary has a line running up the middle of it to form a boundary between two constituencies. So one defines a coastal constituency as one that has an electoral boundary on that map which is not shared with another constituency. Thus Eastleigh and New Forest East are coastal constituencies, but Southampton Itchen is not.

    This gets me to a total of 103 coastal constituencies, out of 533 for England as a whole.
    I hadn't noticed the boundaries on the OS online maps, and that seems like an excellent way of calculating it. Thanks.

    (And thanks to Rod too: although your figure is different. ;-) )
  • tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,711
    Scott_P said:

    The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.

    Not counting in Northumberland until Friday at 9:00. Pathetic. At least the LibDems will be able to hold onto Berwick for a few extra hours.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    tyson said:

    antifrank said:

    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

    I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
    I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Roger said:

    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

    It's a proper poll. The tables are here:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/General-Election-Poll-Tables.pdf
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,722
    edited April 2015
    Roger said:

    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

    Poll was carried out by Survation

    http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,493
    Mr. Rentool, that is pathetic. Counting should be done as soon as possible. Mind you, that's still better than the London mayor farce.

    Mr. 565, I make them every now and then :p

    Mr. P, aye, they want to have the cake, eat the cake, and lose weight.
  • Scott_P said:

    The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.

    Anyone know what the rules are for re-counts?

    Is it an issue of %'s or number of votes?
    I am also looking for a market for the number of constituency re-counts, anybody got any suggestions?

    Thank you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,743

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?
    Instant poll from Thursday's debate?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,424
    Roger said:

    OT. Jessop. With your Turkish connections it's worth seeing 'The Water Diviner' directed by Russell Crowe. Most of it set in Istanbul in the 20's. I've been to Istanbul many times and it's one of my favourite cities and this had a strange flavour of the place which make me feel quite nostalgic

    Thanks for that; I knew he had a film out, but not what it was about. I don't know Istanbul at all well; Mrs J's parents live in Ankara, which is not a particularly picturesque or atmospheric place.

    Sadly we haven't been to see a film since the little 'un was born, so it's probably something we'll have to catch on DVD.

    As another off-topic aside, the little 'un is nine months old now, and generally prefers books to TV (although he chews the books rather than read them). But often when the adverts come on TV he stares at them, rapt, only looking away once the program restarts.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Roger said:

    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

    Poll was carried out by Survation

    http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump
    Did you choose the short URL TSE?
  • Grandiose said:

    Roger said:

    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

    Poll was carried out by Survation

    http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump
    Did you choose the short URL TSE?

    I did.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,743
    JEO said:

    tyson said:

    antifrank said:

    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

    I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
    I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
    Like in 1947?
  • This is why I could never be a Green Party member.

    Green Party members told: dress in a 'mainsteam' manner, and don't stand too close to voters

    Natalie Bennett's footsoldiers given advice on how to blend in with the public

    http://tinyurl.com/H1tMeWithYourRhythmStick
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes

    and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    Lolwut?
    What does that mean?
    "Lol, what". An expression of disbelief.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,743

    This is why I could never be a Green Party member.

    Green Party members told: dress in a 'mainsteam' manner, and don't stand too close to voters

    Natalie Bennett's footsoldiers given advice on how to blend in with the public

    http://tinyurl.com/H1tMeWithYourRhythmStick

    Don't stand
    Don't stand so
    Don't stand so close to me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,252
    edited April 2015
    Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.

    Hmmm...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,876

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
    Thanks. That's a blow. :(

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    This is why I could never be a Green Party member.

    Green Party members told: dress in a 'mainsteam' manner, and don't stand too close to voters

    Natalie Bennett's footsoldiers given advice on how to blend in with the public

    http://tinyurl.com/H1tMeWithYourRhythmStick

    The party’s foot-soldiers are instructed to appear “level-headed”, to not stand too close to people’s front doors and to express their admiration for voters’ homes.

    This is even more telling
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,722
    edited April 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
    Thanks. That's a blow. :(

    They don't like polling during the holiday period.

    On the flip side, we should get both ICM and Ipsos Mori next week.

    And the ComRes phone poll too.

    Which means four phone polls in short order
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Grandiose said:

    Roger said:

    AF

    "Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

    I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

    Poll was carried out by Survation

    http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump
    Did you choose the short URL TSE?

    I did.
    Now that's the kind of Tap I hope never gets banned from PB.com

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    JEO said:

    tyson said:

    antifrank said:

    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

    I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
    I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
    I am astonished when they have told me this- one living in Hale Barns, and one in Tunbridge Wells, possibly amongst the safest places in the world to live. But if they are this irrational, it explains somewhat why the Israel state think it's just to pulverise a civilian enclave in response to a limited barrage of misfiring, home made rockets.


  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    This is why I could never be a Green Party member.

    Green Party members told: dress in a 'mainsteam' manner, and don't stand too close to voters

    Natalie Bennett's footsoldiers given advice on how to blend in with the public

    http://tinyurl.com/H1tMeWithYourRhythmStick

    The party’s foot-soldiers are instructed to appear “level-headed”, to not stand too close to people’s front doors and to express their admiration for voters’ homes.

    'I love your gas barbecue and patio heaters! Wow, you've got Air Con too. Would you consider voting for the Greens?'
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.

    Hmmm...

    I'd stick with it, Labour are trying very hard in the seat.

    Hopefully we'll get a constituency poll before the election.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

    Also - Con GAIN Gateshead is not really the best bet to make.
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
    I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

    He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,424
    tyson said:

    JEO said:

    tyson said:

    antifrank said:

    Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

    I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.
    I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.
    I am astonished when they have told me this- one living in Hale Barns, and one in Tunbridge Wells, possibly amongst the safest places in the world to live. But if they are this irrational, it explains somewhat why the Israel state think it's just to pulverise a civilian enclave in response to a limited barrage of misfiring, home made rockets.
    1) The firing is not limited - unless 4,000 in 2014 alone is 'limited'.
    2) They are generally not 'home made'; they are made in small workshops, or bought in from countries like Iran.
    3) I bet if they were regularly fired towards your home, your attitude would be different. Whether the were 'home made' or not.

    Given everything that has happened to Jews in the last couple of centuries, I think they have a right to be slightly irrational about their own security. For instance in 1900 there were 50,000 Jews in Baghdad alone. Things got rapidly worse for them from the 1930s onwards.
    Present estimates of the Jewish population in Baghdad are eight (2007),[41] seven (2008)[42] and five (2013). Among the American forces stationed in Iraq, there were only three Jewish chaplains
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Iraq#The_state_of_Iraq

    Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Here's how not to organise a super secret Miliband supporting letter: http://t.co/jHeTFBxRGE http://t.co/u80P6kF4TD
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    edited April 2015
    Weejonnie

    "Also - Con GAIN Gateshead is not really the best bet to make."

    Bury South would be even better. Cons 9/1!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    edited April 2015
    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Former Blairite DH seems as bemused by the second coming as anyone else:
    But Labour’s entire political strategy has been based on the following premise – it was time to move on from Tony Blair and New Labour. Now, some people may disagree with that premise and strategy. Other people may endorse it. But what should be clear to everyone is that having spent five years rubbishing Tony Blair and all his works, Ed Miliband cannot suddenly turn around four weeks from polling day and say “Look! My good friend Tony Blair is backing me! You should back me too!”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11519277/Is-Tony-Blair-an-asset-or-a-liability-to-Labour-Ed-Miliband-needs-to-decide.html
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Roger
    Disregarding "Godwins Law", reprisals, herding people into enclaves, and appropriating their land, are no doubt justifiable.
    After all, look at the injustices they suffered at the hands of people who did the same things to them with no valid reason?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    Tony Blair's intervention has been rather smart. Nothing gets the feathers flying in the Tory Party like talk of Europe.

    And who better to get it talked about?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
    I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

    He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
    TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
    So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. :) Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,424
    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair's intervention has been rather smart. Nothing gets the feathers flying in the Tory Party like talk of Europe.

    And who better to get it talked about?

    That's one way of looking at it. Another way though would be that this moves the debate onto territory that is better for the Tories than Labour. Cynics might even suggest that's the idea behind the intervention. I'm sitting on the fence.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
    I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

    He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
    TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
    So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
    Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    Jessop

    Read 'The Unholy Land' one of the better historical books on the conflict and then you might learn a little background and we wouldn't have to face your ignorant prejudices
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    trublue said:

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. :) Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
    These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.

    226-250 @ 11/2 [general]
    201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,531

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited April 2015
    Roger There is nothing smart about Tony Blair..except his rather expensive suits..he makes oilsnake salesmen look respectable
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,252
    What's the lowest seat total Ed can become PM on - 270 ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,743

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

    Next week
    Thanks. That's a blow. :(

    They don't like polling during the holiday period.

    On the flip side, we should get both ICM and Ipsos Mori next week.

    And the ComRes phone poll too.

    Which means four phone polls in short order
    Opinion polls... must have opinion polls....

    (I want to see if my Tory lead in ELBOW isn't just a statistical blip!)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
    I think the Jewish inhabitants of the settlements in the West Bank are citizens of Israel, with a vote in their elections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,252

    trublue said:

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. :) Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
    These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.

    226-250 @ 11/2 [general]
    201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]
    Thanks, I've got the 226-250 band covered so the 201-225 band looks good @ 18-1. Sub 200 looks tricky to me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,424
    Roger said:

    Jessop

    Read 'The Unholy Land' one of the better historical books on the conflict and then you might learn a little background and we wouldn't have to face your ignorant prejudices

    I've read many books on it, thanks. They generally make quite depressing reading. As for ignorant prejudices: it'd be easy to throw that back in your direction as well. But there's little point, as neither of us will learn anything from it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,599
    trublue said:

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. :) Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.
    Hmm. Ray Galvin has a nice list of all the Tory marginals in order of swing required to be lost - http://justsolutions.eu/Marginals/conMarginals.asp

    If Lab really do need 40 to stand still, if you look at this list, then that takes you, roughly, to seats where the swing is around 3.4%. That doesn't seem too difficult given the collapse in LD votes in this constituencies. I'm sticking to my Lab minority bets.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,901
    Financier said:



    UK:
    To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.

    A country doesn't shrink or grow via foreign policy (unless in a WW1 scenario). It shrinks or grows due to economic policy. Fleets of aircraft carriers and the like are merely an outward expression of inner wealth.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
    I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

    He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
    It is very dangerous to have an input that is influenced by the output unless you want to make a feedback model.

    So Baxter's forecast is directly influenced by the betting market which is influenced by his forecast, so it's caught in a feedback loop. Unless the thought that the betting market can directly influence the election results by the same amount is valid, if not then his forecast has to be discounted.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
    Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all.

    Surprised to see the old war criminal Tony Blair has resurfaced and is presently cluttering up the airwaves – Not sure if this is a wise move by Ed, I’d have thunk it best to let sleeping dogs lie.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

    Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

    Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

    "He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"
    Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?
    I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

    He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.
    TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
    So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.
    Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...
    It strikes me as some clever stabilisers Baxter has thought up to keep his prediction within the range. I expect all the predictors to start converging closely in the last 2 weeks (including Jack's ARSE). Around which number, I really don't know. I expect the Tories to pull out a significant gap (I hope not, but I think they might)- but I wouldn't bet on my instinct.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Roger said:

    I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.

    He certainly is correct about chaos for two years if the Conservatives win the General Election.
    As the EU referendum will dominate government business for two years and many years after.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
    Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
    That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO.
    In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    Evening all.

    Surprised to see the old war criminal Tony Blair has resurfaced and is presently cluttering up the airwaves – Not sure if this is a wise move by Ed, I’d have thunk it best to let sleeping dogs lie.

    It's probably the biggest tactical mistake made so far during this campaign.
    The overwhelming majority hate Blair, especially among his own party, and for a good reason too.

    It's worse than the Bush endorsement equivalent in 2008:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b42huEAUulY

    Miliband should try to run away as fast as he can.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Can you recognize who is the third one on the first row in that 1987 GE poster?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB_UrZTWgAAg_6p.jpg:large
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    Earlier DDoS attacks on various pro-Independence and pro-SNP websites.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.

    The case being "Ed isn't up to the job"

    The voxpops on Sky were unanimous
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    Currently DDoS attacks on various pro-Independence and pro-SNP websites.

    I will beat the SNP conspiracy theory department and suggest that the SNP might be behind it just so they can make a conspiracy theory out of it.

    Of course all of the above is just a theory, a conspiracy theory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    Earlier DDoS attacks on various pro-Independence and pro-SNP websites.

    What a spectacular waste of effort. If true.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2015

    Can you recognize who is the third one on the first row in that 1987 GE poster?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB_UrZTWgAAg_6p.jpg:large

    You can read (just about) the captions here:
    http://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/newspaper-advertisement-for-the-british-conservative-party-news-photo/92063310

    (It says Richard Stanton of Brighton Council; and now Green. Oh.)
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
    Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
    That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO.
    In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
    Is this the sort of 'united republic' solution the SNP would approve of?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

    The current answer seems to be "neither".
    Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.
    That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO.
    In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.
    Lebanon and Bosnia have been unparalleled success stories, proof diversity is a strength.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited April 2015

    Roger said:

    Jessop

    "Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

    Enough of your right wing drivel

    If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

    Let me rephrase that:
    "If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

    And continue to ~3000 BC ...

    If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

    I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.
    I am not sure that is quite correct. I understand the main reason Jews were kicked out of other Middle Eastern nations was because of anger over Israel. If Israel was not formed, plenty of Jews would be living in other Middle Eastern nations.

    I do agree with the idea that other Arab states are no more moral than Israel. But I do not think that is the question. The question is whether Israel is behaving in unacceptable ways that delegitimise it as a democratic power. The permanent occupation over another people, and the slow annexation of their land, suggests it is. And I say this as a great admirer of the Jews.
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