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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holdin

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    SNP just slowly sinking into meltdown.

    Do they REALLY think they will get any Glasgow seats when it comes down to it??
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Saltire said:

    Sturgeon basically admits there will be another indyref after the 2016 Holyrood election assuming they get a majority

    Which they will.

    Woot. Vote SNP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Never knew you were the PB voice of Labour list Scott :D

    We all have burdens to bear...
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    I wonder If Jim Murphy will challenge Sturgeon to rule out another referendum in the next few years when we get to the challenge bit of the show.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2015
    @EdwardDebi: Better Together folks seem to have had at hand a "once in a lifetime" video of Nicola Sturgeon from during #indyref #ScotDebates

    @blairmcdougall: Nicola Sturgeon said #indyref was "once in a lifetime". What changed?

    vine.co/v/Oq6KMgdnFaD
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 768
    Artist said:

    I wonder If Jim Murphy will challenge Sturgeon to rule out another referendum in the next few years when we get to the challenge bit of the show.

    He wouldn't gain anything if she said no.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Artist said:

    I wonder If Jim Murphy will challenge Sturgeon to rule out another referendum in the next few years when we get to the challenge bit of the show.

    She's ruling it in.

    And why not. 60% of Scotland wants another within 10 years.

    Remember the audience is selected on a basis of "current polls and last election results", it's not reflective of Scotland by design.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: No suprise Sturgeon leaving indyref2 option open for 2016 manifesto - SNP would implode ottherwise. But #scotdebates audience v unhappy
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Scott_P said:

    @Markfergusonuk: SNP argument is offensive to all who have ever been elected Scottish MPs in the past. Implies Cook, Brown or Dewar didn’t represent Scotland

    Not offensive at all since they didn't, it is quite an accurate argument. They didn't even represent UK very well either if at all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @johnmcternan: When was last time @NicolaSturgeon was laughed at by an audience? Lost a lot of ground by not coming clean on 2nd referendum #Scotdebates
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Well I fear a Lab revival in Scotland after this.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 768
    The people that Labour need to win back are people who they angered in the referendum. That won't happen if they, you know, keep asking if there will be another referendum.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    It seems the only thing people will remember out of this debate will be the fake mustache.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Saltire No, Sturgeon will just leave the option open, no way she will hold another referendum unless certain of victory in the next few years, a second No win would kill off independence for good
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,252
    MikeL said:

    Well I fear a Lab revival in Scotland after this.

    Are you sure ? I reckon moustache sales to go through the roof
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,369
    Scott_P said:

    @EdwardDebi: Better Together folks seem to have had at hand a "once in a lifetime" video of Nicola Sturgeon from during #indyref #ScotDebates

    @blairmcdougall: Nicola Sturgeon said #indyref was "once in a lifetime". What changed?

    vine.co/v/Oq6KMgdnFaD

    She was talking about for the people the will die between 2014-16.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    geoffw said:

    Sturgeon sounds like Balls: yes, reduce the deficit, but not so fast as the wicked Tories.
    Audience in Edinburgh not with her.

    Are they confusing the deficit and the debt?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Davidson's throwing her good work away by getting het up.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Ruth to Rennie

    "You voted for the same amount of cuts".

    :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Monkeys Nope they are in the SNP camp, they need to win over any No voters voting SNP and also some Tory and LD voters
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: The tone of the questions is NOT conforming to the socialist Scotland stereotype ....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Paul Ryan @pjryan51

    Jim Murphy " I'm going to stand back let these two(Ruth and Nicola) fight it out". Thats the problem Jim. Sitting on fence. #ScotDebates

  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    I don't think there is a stomach for a second referendum. Lets not forget the promise of the Tories to have one on the EU. Murphy would be a nutter to challenge Sturgeon on that.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 768
    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
    Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    Jim Murphy says that Ruth Davidson is saying there’s no difference between Tories/Labour, she responds yes there is you crashed the economy

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Jim Murphy says that Ruth Davidson is saying there’s no difference between Tories/Labour, she responds yes there is you crashed the economy
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Dean Wood @DeanW1

    Ruth Davidson just destroyed Rennie there "We voted for the same cuts" #ScotDebates

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KayBurley: You crashed the economy I'm trying to rebuild it says Ruth Davidson to Jim Murphy #ScotDebates
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2015

    Smarmeron said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    Not in the upper leagues, or just a dissenter?

    "NHS
    More than 100 top doctors attack government record on NHS "
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/apr/07/more-than-100-top-doctors-attack-government-record-on-nhs

    I have always been a dissenter! I do know a few on the list. Some are the usual suspects (Allyson Pollack wrote NHS Plc about the privatisation of the NHS under the last Labour Government) others I have great respect for including Clare Gerada and Raymond Tallis (probably the most intelligent doctor on the planet).

    But Doctors are a very diverse bunch. I thought the Lansley reforms could have been done better, and the BCT fund sorted a few years back, but on the other hand putting Doctors rather than pen pushers on the Commissioning boards is a definite improvement. To be honest, I do not think there is much difference between the parties on the NHS. Both Labour and Tories use it as a political football.
    I found that a very interesting and balanced post, thanks.

    The only two posters I can recall posting in much detail about the Lansley plans from a position of understanding at the time they were being put together were tim and Seth O'Logue/Avery Lympe-Pole (and I suspect only the latter had actually read the plans through in full). Needless to say their opinions were polar opposites! And neither being health professionals.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207
    Very argumentative by Ruth Davidson but she is effective.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    I think Murphy just did in Sturgeon a fair bit then.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, Sturgeon will just leave the option open, no way she will hold another referendum unless certain of victory in the next few years, a second No win would kill off independence for good

    If they want another one before 2021 they will have to put it their manifesto otherwise I doubt a British government would agree to one.
    I think that it will be there but I do agree with you that they will decline to hold one if they think they would lose it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207
    IOS said:

    I think Murphy just did in Sturgeon a fair bit then.

    She is getting a much rougher ride tonight than she did in Manchester.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    None of you seem to be posting @AngrySalmond tweets. I do not think you are taking the debate seriously.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @OliverCooper: "Conservatives don't believe in raising taxes on one single person." Willie Rennie does a good job of selling Conservatives. #ScotDebates
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 768
    HYUFD said:

    Monkeys Nope they are in the SNP camp, they need to win over any No voters voting SNP and also some Tory and LD voters

    They'd have to get all of them. Tories aren't going to tactically vote Labour in large numbers.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    Scott_P said:

    @EdwardDebi: Better Together folks seem to have had at hand a "once in a lifetime" video of Nicola Sturgeon from during #indyref #ScotDebates

    @blairmcdougall: Nicola Sturgeon said #indyref was "once in a lifetime". What changed?

    vine.co/v/Oq6KMgdnFaD

    She says in the video that it's "probably a once in a lifetime opportunity". That seems a fair assessment, as another one would require indy-supporting parties to have another majority at Holyrood.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Monkeys said:

    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
    Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.
    Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.
    So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Marcus Buist @marcus_buist

    Ruth Davidson nails Murphy for saying Tories are like Labour. The @ScotTories are the only alternative to extreme socialism #ScotDebates

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Will be fascinating to see what Miliband and Balls say about Jim Murphy’s line that Labour might not have to cut more in 2016
  • isamisam Posts: 41,355
    That old stereotypical Ukip supporter again

    “He’s our hero, he’s the best person we’ve ever met,” a group of giddy teenagers exclaimed after getting a selfie with their idol this afternoon.

    You would have thought these 14-year-old teenage girls had met a member of One Direction, but the hero they were referring to was Nigel Farage.'

    He’s just the best person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Sophie, one of the 14-year-old girls. “It’s made our Easter holidays and when I go back to school I’m going to tell all my friends that I met Nigel Farage.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-dreams-come-true-for-these-teenage-girls-as-they-meet-their-hero--nigel-farage-10160619.html?cmpid=facebook-post
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges

    Is Jim Murphy now saying Labour will not cut anything at all?

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    rullko said:

    Scott_P said:

    @EdwardDebi: Better Together folks seem to have had at hand a "once in a lifetime" video of Nicola Sturgeon from during #indyref #ScotDebates

    @blairmcdougall: Nicola Sturgeon said #indyref was "once in a lifetime". What changed?

    vine.co/v/Oq6KMgdnFaD

    She says in the video that it's "probably a once in a lifetime opportunity". That seems a fair assessment, as another one would require indy-supporting parties to have another majority at Holyrood.
    And the polls for 2016 currently show the SNP/Greens will have a decent size majority...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Dubhthaigh @JamesDubhthaigh

    Wow, Ruth Davidson just absolutely destroyed Jim Murphy. #ScotDebates

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Edward Mayes @eljmayes

    Ruth Davidson is doing very, very well in this debate. Passion and substance, Cameron take note! #ScotDebates

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    Indeed austerity ends in 2016 if EICIPM on 8th May 2015
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    Mr speedy ,you watching it ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Saltire Indeed, they will just leave themselves the option for 1
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154


    Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges

    Is Jim Murphy now saying Labour will not cut anything at all?

    They say one thing to a Scottish audience and another to the southern audiences and probably something else in Wales.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: Scottish voters just applauded @RuthDavidsonMSP's call for the middle class to pay for prescriptions. Have they been reading @chrisdeerin?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Monkeys In straight SNP-Labour seats many Tories may well vote tactically Labour on the constituency vote, Tory on regional list
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Did Murphy just try and claim Labour abolished university tuition fees?
  • Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    Indeed austerity ends in 2016 if EICIPM on 8th May 2015
    That is when the miracle of magic money trees flourish using the French socialist model?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 768
    HYUFD said:

    Monkeys In straight SNP-Labour seats many Tories may well vote tactically Labour on the constituency vote, Tory on regional list

    I was talking about GE 2015 in that comment.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Alistair said:

    Did Murphy just try and claim Labour abolished university tuition fees?

    They have been claiming that for some time Alistair.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,369

    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    Indeed austerity ends in 2016 if EICIPM on 8th May 2015
    That is when the miracle of magic money trees flourish using the French socialist model?
    Titter
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ruth Davidson has understood the huge advantage that outsiders have in debates and it sounds as if she has used it well. I doubt the Conservatives will see any benefit in the polls.

    It may, however, subdue any tactical Tory voting in Labour's favour.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    That old stereotypical Ukip supporter again

    “He’s our hero, he’s the best person we’ve ever met,” a group of giddy teenagers exclaimed after getting a selfie with their idol this afternoon.

    You would have thought these 14-year-old teenage girls had met a member of One Direction, but the hero they were referring to was Nigel Farage.'

    He’s just the best person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Sophie, one of the 14-year-old girls. “It’s made our Easter holidays and when I go back to school I’m going to tell all my friends that I met Nigel Farage.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-dreams-come-true-for-these-teenage-girls-as-they-meet-their-hero--nigel-farage-10160619.html?cmpid=facebook-post

    Impressionable 16- and 17-year-olds bad, impressionable 14-year-olds, fine.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited April 2015

    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    Indeed austerity ends in 2016 if EICIPM on 8th May 2015
    That is when the miracle of magic money trees flourish using the French socialist model?
    No IFS say Tories more in need of MMT to pay for tax cuts
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
    Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.
    Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.
    So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
    SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323


    Edward Mayes @eljmayes

    Ruth Davidson is doing very, very well in this debate. Passion and substance, Cameron take note! #ScotDebates

    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE

    #calledit
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 327
    Where can you follow the scottish debate if you are in England. We do have a vested interest as we seem to be paying for most of the Scottish government's expenditure
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    HYUFD said:

    Monkeys In straight SNP-Labour seats many Tories may well vote tactically Labour on the constituency vote, Tory on regional list

    I know a lot of Tories who voted SNP in 2011 because the SNP promised to freeze the Council Tax. Tories aren't daft enough to vote Labour when they know that Labour will kill them on the Council Taxes. Behave.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auo5bkkble/SunResults_150331_WelshVI_website_V1.pdf

    Tories move 9 points clear with Welsh pensioners and now lead in West, Mid and North Wales.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    Saltire said:


    And the polls for 2016 currently show the SNP/Greens will have a decent size majority...

    Well, in the unlikely event that the result reflects polls a year before the election, and the SNP and Greens both advocate a second referendum in their Holyrood campaigns, then the answer to Blair McDougall's question, "what's changed?", would be "people voted for it".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Grandiose said:

    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE

    #calledit

    Welcome to the Club! :-)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    franklyn said:

    Where can you follow the scottish debate if you are in England. We do have a vested interest as we seem to be paying for most of the Scottish government's expenditure

    http://player.stv.tv/live/

    Looks like you can just register, but I haven't myself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    franklyn I am watching it on STV
    http://player.stv.tv/live/
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Grandiose said:


    Edward Mayes @eljmayes

    Ruth Davidson is doing very, very well in this debate. Passion and substance, Cameron take note! #ScotDebates

    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE

    #calledit
    Yep ,two seats ;-)

  • Alistair said:

    Did Murphy just try and claim Labour abolished university tuition fees?

    the more you follow this debate the more you realise that Labour are going to spend the next 2 days explaining and costing Murphy's promises.

    The debates really are NOT the opportunity some thought it would be.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,355
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    That old stereotypical Ukip supporter again

    “He’s our hero, he’s the best person we’ve ever met,” a group of giddy teenagers exclaimed after getting a selfie with their idol this afternoon.

    You would have thought these 14-year-old teenage girls had met a member of One Direction, but the hero they were referring to was Nigel Farage.'

    He’s just the best person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Sophie, one of the 14-year-old girls. “It’s made our Easter holidays and when I go back to school I’m going to tell all my friends that I met Nigel Farage.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-dreams-come-true-for-these-teenage-girls-as-they-meet-their-hero--nigel-farage-10160619.html?cmpid=facebook-post

    Impressionable 16- and 17-year-olds bad, impressionable 14-year-olds, fine.
    Oh did someone say they should be able to vote then? Missed that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Monkeys Same applies for SNP-Labour seats at election 2015
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    franklyn said:

    Where can you follow the scottish debate if you are in England. We do have a vested interest as we seem to be paying for most of the Scottish government's expenditure

    None yo biz. just keep sending the readies and keep yer nose out.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    So the SNP are right and Labour are too scared to say it.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p30qrdyv00/Sun_Results_Scotland_150331_Website_V1.pdf

    SNP third among UK born Scottish residents born outside Scotland.

    Clearly, the mass movement of the English would kill independence forever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207
    Keep forgetting Willie Rennie is there. Nice guy but in with 3 sharks here.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    David Greig @DavieGreig

    Got to hand it to Ruth Davidson. She's the leader of the opposition in Scotland now

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,164
    Itwasrigged Well the SNP have promised to back all other Labour tax increases, and SNP plans for a local income tax could well lead to cost increases
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    blockquote class="Quote" rel="bigjohnowls">

    Oxfordsimon - Yet another do as I say not as I do from Labour

    Then 2010 - Labour "Current levels of spending are sufficient, and spending not protected"
    Now 2015 - "spending has been insufficient even though it has increased"

    In government - mid staffs crisis
    Out of government - record satisfaction with NHS

    Labour's weaponisation of the NHS would be sad if it were not so blantantly dishonest.

    Why do you think 80% of Acute Trusts are in deficit compared to 1% in 2010?

    Clue Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest.
    Providers who commission do not belong to the Acute Sector

    Unsure what your point is - if there isn't enough money now then Labour planned to spend less.

    Having used the NHS extensively over the last few years. I cannot see a problem with Acute not being in charge. For a complicated condition one family member saw various specialists across the region in various specialist units who all diagnosed their own specialism incorrectly. It was only the persistance of our GP that finally allowed a correct diagnosis
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    So the SNP are right and Labour are too scared to say it.
    Not shouting it from the rooftops yet are they.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: I'm feeling like Ruth Davidson is the winner of tonight's debate and Bernard Ponsonbury is the loser. As for Sturgeon v Murphy? Who knows...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
    Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.
    Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.
    So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
    SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.
    You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.
    They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
    Also the SNP is not on 51% but 39-42% in the latest polls for the list and 44-46% for the constituencies.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    The questions on a hung parliament could all be quite meaningless in 4 weeks time if something happens to move opinion polls by a couple percentage points...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    That old stereotypical Ukip supporter again

    “He’s our hero, he’s the best person we’ve ever met,” a group of giddy teenagers exclaimed after getting a selfie with their idol this afternoon.

    You would have thought these 14-year-old teenage girls had met a member of One Direction, but the hero they were referring to was Nigel Farage.'

    He’s just the best person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Sophie, one of the 14-year-old girls. “It’s made our Easter holidays and when I go back to school I’m going to tell all my friends that I met Nigel Farage.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-dreams-come-true-for-these-teenage-girls-as-they-meet-their-hero--nigel-farage-10160619.html?cmpid=facebook-post

    Impressionable 16- and 17-year-olds bad, impressionable 14-year-olds, fine.
    Oh did someone say they should be able to vote then? Missed that
    I'd put them both in the "bad" category myself. It shouldn't be difficult to impress a load of 14-year-olds, whatever your political persuation. Indeed the world's youth have always been the early adopters of most demagogues.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    No IFS say Tories more in need of MMT to pay for tax cuts

    If these people are so smart, why are they engaged in academia at the IFS?

    They would all be millionaires if they were able to accurately foretell economics.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeWatts_: Davidson asks rhetorically why SNP stood against towering Lab ppl like John Smith, but is desperate to get EdMili into power #ScotDebates
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: The Nats should get Alex Salmond back. That wasn't very good from Nicola Sturgeon tonight. #ScotDebates
  • isamisam Posts: 41,355
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    That old stereotypical Ukip supporter again

    “He’s our hero, he’s the best person we’ve ever met,” a group of giddy teenagers exclaimed after getting a selfie with their idol this afternoon.

    You would have thought these 14-year-old teenage girls had met a member of One Direction, but the hero they were referring to was Nigel Farage.'

    He’s just the best person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Sophie, one of the 14-year-old girls. “It’s made our Easter holidays and when I go back to school I’m going to tell all my friends that I met Nigel Farage.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-dreams-come-true-for-these-teenage-girls-as-they-meet-their-hero--nigel-farage-10160619.html?cmpid=facebook-post

    Impressionable 16- and 17-year-olds bad, impressionable 14-year-olds, fine.
    Oh did someone say they should be able to vote then? Missed that
    I'd put them both in the "bad" category myself. It shouldn't be difficult to impress a load of 14-year-olds, whatever your political persuation. Indeed the world's youth have always been the early adopters of most demagogues.
    Oooh touchy!

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    DavidL said:

    Keep forgetting Willie Rennie is there. Nice guy but in with 3 sharks here.

    I didn't even know you could get indigestion of the Penis. Let alone there was a Scottish politician named after the remedy.

    Gets coat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saltire No, she ruled it out after the Westminster election but said they would draw up their manifesto for Holyrood in 2016, she also said it would depend on voters views (ie if 55%+ in the polls were voting Yes, yesterday's yougov had 47%).

    Yes it depends on voters views, if voters put them in power 2016 they will know they will be voting for another indyref.
    Good question, will the SNP retain their majority in Holyrood after 2016?
    If UKIP or the Greens get more that 5-6% in 2016 then the SNP would lose it.
    Greens pro-independence, and yes, there will be several new Greens in 2016.
    Currently the Holyrood polls suggest that the SNP will get around 55 seats, 10 short of a majority, while the Greens and UKIP at around 7-8 seats each, still not enough for an SNP-GRN coalition.
    So the SNP is facing in 2016 what Labour and the Tories are facing this year (poetic justice?), whatever happens not even a coalition will have enough seats for a majority.
    SNP got 53 FPTP seats with 45% of the vote. They are now on 51% of the vote and will get almost all the 73 FPTP seats. They could get a majority just on FPTP seats. With the "SNP Seat, Green List" message, the Greens will get 12+ seats. Pro-Indy will have 80+ seats.
    You are forgetting the electoral system in scotland is not FPTP.
    They use an Additional Members System which is approximately proportional.
    Also the SNP is not on 51% but 44%-46% in the latest polls.
    You are forgetting the Scottish system IS FPTP to start with - then fiddled by Labour under Mr Dewar to give the losers seats under the list system. Dair is pointing out that if the FPTP element does well enough, that is a long way to an absolute majority.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:


    James Forsyth @JGForsyth

    I might have misheard but I think Jim Murphy just said that the IFS have said Labour might not have to make further cuts. Did I mishear?

    He might be factually correct, in that Labour might not need to cut further than the Tories plan.
    So the SNP are right and Labour are too scared to say it.
    Not shouting it from the rooftops yet are they.
    If they did they might lock the SNP out by winning a majority from E&W alone.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329


    Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges

    Is Jim Murphy now saying Labour will not cut anything at all?

    They say one thing to a Scottish audience and another to the southern audiences and probably something else in Wales.

    Labour - do as i say not as I do
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    chestnut said:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auo5bkkble/SunResults_150331_WelshVI_website_V1.pdf

    Tories move 9 points clear with Welsh pensioners and now lead in West, Mid and North Wales.

    LDs on 12% in Mid & West Wales.

    What does that mean for Brecon & Radnor and Ceredigion?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    That was considerably better than last week
This discussion has been closed.