politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holdin

Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

Roger said:

TP

"VI amongst Jews (tables):

Con 69
Lab 22
LD 2
UKIP 2

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support"

So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!

Of course there are compensations elsewhere. Though David Ward & George Galloway may scupper two of the intended.

From D Group Economic Weekly:

Greece:
"Fitch downgraded Greek debt further into “junk” territory (pushing the two-year yield up to 22.3%);
- the Vice-Chairman of the Bavarian CSU (sister party to Merkel’s CDU), Peter Gauweiler, resigned in protest against what he sees as Germany succumbing to Greek ‘blackmail’;
- Tsipras announced that he is flying to Moscow to meet Putin ahead of the Orthodox Easter holiday (which will please his strongly pro-Russian Foreign Minister, Nikos Kotzias, though it will infuriate the Germans); and
- ex-PM Samaras announced that he is willing to enter a “government of national unity”, if that is what it takes to keep Greece in the euro."

Europe:
- that automobile sales in Germany were up 20% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, while retail sales were up 11.5% in real terms year-on-year;
- that retail sales in Spain were up again in March, for the seventh straight month; and
- that, in Italy, both the consumer and business confidence indices jumped sharply in March – the former from 107.7 to 110.9, and the latter from 97.5 to 103.

UK:
To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.

https://www.twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/585458699214389248

Do the "Blairites" seriously think being rabidly pro-EU is a good card to play with the electorate? I'm always hearing that prat Chuka Umunna going on about it too.

Mr. Financier, the shadow of Blair's ill-conceived (and ill-funded) overseas adventures will haunt us a while yet.

Like Crassus at Carrhae, Blair's idiocy will put us off action even when it's needed.

I wonder how much coverage south of the border the Caledonian conflab will get.

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Roger said:

Eagle

"It was that bacon butty that did it for him with Jewish voters."

I wonder if Cameron will sponsor a kosher food bank? That should seal the deal

I expect to see Dave visiting a Synagogue wearing the full skull cap this week.

Tissue_Price said:

VI amongst Jews (tables):

Con 69
Lab 22
LD 2
UKIP 2

Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

Does anyone have the figures for 2010 by any chance? These figures are only really useful if we know what the starting point is.

Is Israel even really one of the main motivating factors for British Jews anyway? The Democrats still clean up with Jews in the US despite being (marginally) the less Israel-friendly party.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 565, they may be trying to get the Conservatives (especially backbenchers) into banging on about it all the time.

That's a good point, actually.

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?

The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.

''That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations. ''

Is it that labour is perceived as the party of choice for radical followers of islam?

Scott_P said:

@iainmartin1: In Scotland BBC have surveyed voters. They want big increases in public spending, no cuts, higher pay. All paid for with magic money tree.

Similar results would be found in England, IMO.

antifrank said:

Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.

AF

"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

OblitusSumMe said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

OblitusSumMe said:

This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

This might be of interest:
http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/

I think it was defining coastline that proved to be the barrier to answering this question the last time I thought of it. The Ordnance Survey seem to provide a solution, though. They draw a coastline boundary onto the Westminster constituencies, whereas in other places the river estuary has a line running up the middle of it to form a boundary between two constituencies. So one defines a coastal constituency as one that has an electoral boundary on that map which is not shared with another constituency. Thus Eastleigh and New Forest East are coastal constituencies, but Southampton Itchen is not.

This gets me to a total of 103 coastal constituencies, out of 533 for England as a whole.

I hadn't noticed the boundaries on the OS online maps, and that seems like an excellent way of calculating it. Thanks.

(And thanks to Rod too: although your figure is different. ;-) )

Scott_P said:

The Electoral Commission has today published a spreadsheet with the count arrangements for the 2015 General Election. It includes information from (Acting) Returning Officers about when they plan to start their count to help meet the high level of interest there will be from voters, candidates and the media about when they can expect the result for their Parliamentary constituency to be declared. Not all AROs have submitted their count arrangements - but the spreadsheet will be updated every week.

Not counting in Northumberland until Friday at 9:00. Pathetic. At least the LibDems will be able to hold onto Berwick for a few extra hours.

Roger said:

AF

"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

It's a proper poll. The tables are here:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/General-Election-Poll-Tables.pdf

Mr. Rentool, that is pathetic. Counting should be done as soon as possible. Mind you, that's still better than the London mayor farce.

Mr. 565, I make them every now and then

Mr. P, aye, they want to have the cake, eat the cake, and lose weight.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Do you have a link to the electoral calculus website which mentions the poll please?

Instant poll from Thursday's debate?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

AF

"Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations."

I would be very interested to see the details of the JC poll. Asking a few guys in the news desk doesn't really count. Even defining 'A Jew' these days is problematic

Poll was carried out by Survation

http://tinyurl.com/LickMyL0vePump

Did you choose the short URL TSE?

JEO said:

tyson said:

antifrank said:

Jewish traditional politics were firmly left of centre (the Milibands were entirely typical). That poll of Jewish voting preferences would have astounded previous generations.

I too find the Jewish VI poll utterly astonishing- but I have increasingly strained relationships with my Jewish friends (who were solidly liberal left) and now feel under threat. Some of my friends have even talked about emigrating to Israel where they can be protected.

I would not feel particularly secure in an Israel that had given up on a two state solution and where Arabs in the total Israel + Palestine area outnumber Jews.

Like in 1947?

isam said:

Slackbladder said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

"Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes

and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs

Lolwut?

What does that mean?

"Lol, what". An expression of disbelief.

Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.

Hmmm...

Pulpstar said:

Election forecast rate Finchley as a 49% chance, which means the 3-1 I have on Labour here looks good. But the Conservatives have a pretty much 10% head start before you come to the non Jewish vote there going by this poll.

Hmmm...

I'd stick with it, Labour are trying very hard in the seat.

Hopefully we'll get a constituency poll before the election.

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"

Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?

I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.

@GuidoFawkes: Here's how not to organise a super secret Miliband supporting letter: http://t.co/jHeTFBxRGE http://t.co/u80P6kF4TD

Jessop

"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

Enough of your right wing drivel

If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

@Roger
Disregarding "Godwins Law", reprisals, herding people into enclaves, and appropriating their land, are no doubt justifiable.
After all, look at the injustices they suffered at the hands of people who did the same things to them with no valid reason?

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"

Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?

I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.

TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.

Roger said:

Jessop

"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

Enough of your right wing drivel

If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

Let me rephrase that:
"If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

And continue to ~3000 BC ...

If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"

Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?

I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.

TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.

Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...

trublue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.

These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.

226-250 @ 11/2 [general]
201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Anybody know if we're getting the first ICM poll of election this week?

Next week

Thanks. That's a blow.

They don't like polling during the holiday period.

On the flip side, we should get both ICM and Ipsos Mori next week.

And the ComRes phone poll too.

Which means four phone polls in short order

Opinion polls... must have opinion polls....

(I want to see if my Tory lead in ELBOW isn't just a statistical blip!)

Tissue_Price said:

trublue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

This is pretty much exactly my analysis too... with the only difference I want that outcome while you oppose it. Also intriguing money has started to come for Conservatives majority but Leader and Most Seats markets have hardly moved in well over a week. I know the sums don't take much to move markets like this, but there's definitely a market move coming for Conservatives. We just need some opinion polls to confirm it and then I think it'll be fairly dramatic. I can see the Conservatives Most Seats market well below 1.40 in the next 7 days with a few good polls.

These lower Labour bands do look like value, given the resilience of the blessed Nicola.

226-250 @ 11/2 [general]
201-225 @ 18/1 [Skybet]

Thanks, I've got the 226-250 band covered so the 201-225 band looks good @ 18-1. Sub 200 looks tricky to me.

I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.

Financier said:

UK:
To me, the saddest thing about the debate was there was no reference – none, nada, zilch – to foreign policy; I predict that ten years from now we will see Cameron’s contribution to political life as having been the ‘shrinking of Britain’ – which is happening day-by-day, with no complaints from anyone.

A country doesn't shrink or grow via foreign policy (unless in a WW1 scenario). It shrinks or grows due to economic policy. Fleets of aircraft carriers and the like are merely an outward expression of inner wealth.

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Jessop

"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

Enough of your right wing drivel

If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

Let me rephrase that:
"If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

And continue to ~3000 BC ...

If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.

I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

The current answer seems to be "neither".

Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.

Tissue_Price said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

Electoral Calculus lists a SportingIndex Poll from the 2nd April with a large sample (5000), and giving the Tories a 33.5-30% percent lead over Labour.

Has anyone seen this poll? It strikes me as quite significant and explains why the spread has notched upwards to the Tories

Stodge, I've asked Mike and he says

"He's [Martin Baxter] added SPIN betting prices to his model"

Thanks TSE- but how does Baxter generate a sample size of 5000? Where does that come from?

I think he's working backwards, so if the spreads say the Con mid seat price is 285, Lab's 270 and the Lib Dems is 32, then that implies a share of the vote of x,y,z.

He wants the spread prices to be around a 1/3 of the total weighting of the total sample size of the standard polls carried out.

TSE- thanks again- you are a clever bloke to figure all this out.
So, if Baxter took the political markets out, Labour's seat tally would be higher.

Indeed. But his top down approach seems to be overstating Labour. So you pays yer money...

It strikes me as some clever stabilisers Baxter has thought up to keep his prediction within the range. I expect all the predictors to start converging closely in the last 2 weeks (including Jack's ARSE). Around which number, I really don't know. I expect the Tories to pull out a significant gap (I hope not, but I think they might)- but I wouldn't bet on my instinct.

AllyPally_Rob said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Jessop

"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

Enough of your right wing drivel

If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

Let me rephrase that:
"If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

And continue to ~3000 BC ...

If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.

I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

The current answer seems to be "neither".

Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.

That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO.
In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.

Can you recognize who is the third one on the first row in that 1987 GE poster?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB_UrZTWgAAg_6p.jpg:large

Roger said:

I miss Tony Blair. What a class act. No one puts a case like he does.

The case being "Ed isn't up to the job"

The voxpops on Sky were unanimous

Dair said:

Earlier DDoS attacks on various pro-Independence and pro-SNP websites.

What a spectacular waste of effort. If true.

Speedy said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Jessop

"Yet idiots people only mention the rights of the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands ... "

Enough of your right wing drivel

If they hadn't behaved as badly as they did towards the Palestinians they wouldn't now be in this position. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has been a disgrace. Consider this. I who have never visited Israel can live there. A Palestinian born there and kicked out of their home to accommodate the likes of me can't even visit.

Let me rephrase that:
"If the Arabs had not behaved as badly as they did towards the Jews they wouldn't now be in this position. The Arab treatment of the Jews has been a disgrace."

And continue to ~3000 BC ...

If it had not been for the formation of the Jewish state, there would be no Jews in the entire Middle East, their ancestral homelands.

I'm not defending everything Israel does - far from. They're their own worst enemy at times. But the idea that the Palestinian states and surrounding governments are morally better is laughable.

I think there is a simple question: are the people of the West Bank members of a Palestinian State, or are they citizens of Israel?

The current answer seems to be "neither".

Excellent point. If there cannot be a 2 state solution, then there must be a 1 state solution. A secular Israel with voting rights for all citizens.

That's my proposition, I said that Israel and Palestine are too small in size and geographically complex to be viable states, therefore a single federal state made up by Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, is the only practical solution to encompass Likud, Hamas, and the PLO while guaranteeing democracy and security of the new state, even the settlements would be able to stay but be under the local jurisdiction of the PLO.
In short something like the UK or the USA, or more closely, Lebanon or Bosnia.

Is this the sort of 'united republic' solution the SNP would approve of?