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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

Hard to say. All the post-debate polling has shown LAB on the same 33%. What has differed is the CON share ranging from 31-34%. Everything is, of course, within normal margins of error.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    Labour have been on 33.8% three weeks in a row in ELBOW

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585149864926965760
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    But the lead in ELBOW has finally been snatched by the Tories!

    "Just rejoice at that news, and congratulate our PB Tories! Rejoice!"

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585149148980187136
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    FPT:

    off-topic:

    This last Saturday (Apr 4th) The Times had a section "pet announcements" or somesuch and it was full of "to Tiddles, dearly missed, a loyal companion, I hope you are happy in cat heaven, died aged 16 yesterday" type things.

    Was this an April Fool? Apols if I missed it..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    Greens in freefall?

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585151283759357952
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    UKIP going down drip by drip, but no collapse?

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585152029879836673
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    it would be quite ironic with the boundary changes having being denied the tories, if their vote has become more efficient with labour piling up votes in safe seats. If that is the case they do not need to be 7% ahead to get a majority. Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    Overall ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) trends since August 2014:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585148261985611777
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    kjohnw said:

    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    it would be quite ironic with the boundary changes having being denied the tories, if their vote has become more efficient with labour piling up votes in safe seats. If that is the case they do not need to be 7% ahead to get a majority. Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it
    Scotland has ensured that the gap needed by the Conservatives to gain a majority over Labour is at least TWO whole % higher than it otherwise would have been.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    In previous elections Labour have been very effective in losing votes in seats in which they had no hope - such as southern Tory shires. The obvious parallel for the Tories would be to lose their votes to UKIP in northern Labour urban areas, seats such as Rotherham, Heywood & Middleton, etc. Conversely, it's possible that Labour will put on a lot of votes in safe Tory seats.

    We saw a bit of this sort of thing at the last election, when the Lib Dem vote went up by most in the Lab/Tory marginals where they had no hope of winning - the Cleggasm won votes in the air war, but they were in the wrong places so they lost seats overall.

    I thought that the evidence from the Ashcroft polling was that the swing in the marginals was broadly the same as in the national polls - ie whatever vote efficiency effects were in play they were mostly cancelling out. Am I mistaken?

    The top-down/bottom-up difference is in the constituency and seat total markets. I don't think that tells us much, except that general election betting is not an efficient market.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,710
    FPT:
    OblitusSumMe said:

    This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

    Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

    I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

    But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

    This might be of interest:
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    '' Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it ''.

    Will people in key English marginals really turn out for ed Milliband? I have my doubts.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    From the Euros

    London 10.1% (+3.4% above uniform swing)
    North West England 9.5% (+2.8% above UNS)
    Yorkshire and Humber 7.9% (+1.2% above UNS)
    North East England 6.8% (+0.1% above UNS)
    United Kingdom 6.7%
    West Midlands 6.7% (= UNS)
    East Midlands 6.1% (0.6% below UNS)
    Wales 5.8% (0.9% below UNS)
    South East England 5.1% (1.6% below UNS)
    Eastern England 4.8% (1.9% below UNS)
    South West England 3.7% (3% below UNS)
    Scotland 2.4% ( 4.3% below UNS)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Far too damned warm. Come back, winter.

    On-topic: a very good question. Reminds me of a new F1 season after a substantial rule change when it's nigh on impossible to guess who's sandbagging in testing. In those circumstances [contrary to my usual approach] I let the skill of the drivers more than my thoughts on the cars drive my betting.

    Perhaps the equivalent here would be focusing on regional strength/campaigning capability. The Conservatives' money may not help them, but it certainly won't hurt.

    I still think the SNP will do extremely well.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    @TOPPING - I really can't tell re that Pet Announcements, I really can't. Is there a Postgraduate & Special Blacks Classes at Crufts? I had a kitty called Chekhov - he was obviously an intellectual, not a starship navigator. I note The Times has a dedicated email to place a notice though...
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    it would be quite ironic with the boundary changes having being denied the tories, if their vote has become more efficient with labour piling up votes in safe seats. If that is the case they do not need to be 7% ahead to get a majority. Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it
    Scotland has ensured that the gap needed by the Conservatives to gain a majority over Labour is at least TWO whole % higher than it otherwise would have been.
    Yes but if labour are piling their votes up in safe seats this could be distorting true VI figures, the true tory figure could be higher if they are putting on votes where it counts - in the marginals
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    kjohnw said:

    it would be quite ironic with the boundary changes having being denied the tories, if their vote has become more efficient with labour piling up votes in safe seats. If that is the case they do not need to be 7% ahead to get a majority. Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it

    It's a possibility. But when looking at the Tory scores they're not far from their 2010 score in a number of the polls. With UKIP having taken chunks of their support in their hearlands where is this extra vote for them coming from? And will turnout play a big factor?

  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    My sense is that the vast majority really don't give a stuff about the election, and possibly won't ever as they are heartily fed up with the political classes.
    Outside of Scotland, regardless of the current polls, I wouldn't be all that surprised if everyone else voted the same as last time, which does bide well for Cameron.

    Miliband needs to make it a change election and there's no real demand for change, except around the extremes.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I bet they say uniform swing won't work every election, before it ends up being a pretty decent indicator in the end. That certainly happened in 2010. It's hard to see the Lib Dems doing as bad as uniform swing would suggest, so maybe uniform swing with a small adjustment for a Lib Dem incumbency boost would be the best method. I'm wary of forecasters who are trying to include too much within their models.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Far too damned warm. Come back, winter.

    On-topic: a very good question. Reminds me of a new F1 season after a substantial rule change when it's nigh on impossible to guess who's sandbagging in testing. In those circumstances [contrary to my usual approach] I let the skill of the drivers more than my thoughts on the cars drive my betting.

    Perhaps the equivalent here would be focusing on regional strength/campaigning capability. The Conservatives' money may not help them, but it certainly won't hurt.

    I still think the SNP will do extremely well.

    Too warm? It's just 17C tops...

    Need to crank it up another 10C at least to get into the "warm" category!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    Plato said:

    @TOPPING - I really can't tell re that Pet Announcements, I really can't. Is there a Postgraduate & Special Blacks Classes at Crufts? I had a kitty called Chekhov - he was obviously an intellectual, not a starship navigator. I note The Times has a dedicated email to place a notice though...

    I just read a few of them, thought "what is the world coming to?" and left it at that.

    Did they really have that class at Crufts? Where am I? Oh god...

    I am confused (not an especially untypical state of affairs).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. S, must be said, I really, really don't like the heat. Much prefer cold weather.

    And my computer room is south-facing, so it's the hottest room in the house.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    I'm with @Morris_Dancer. I've got the windows open and it's 17C here in my place in Eastbourne.

    I like around 15C myself.
    murali_s said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Far too damned warm. Come back, winter.

    On-topic: a very good question. Reminds me of a new F1 season after a substantial rule change when it's nigh on impossible to guess who's sandbagging in testing. In those circumstances [contrary to my usual approach] I let the skill of the drivers more than my thoughts on the cars drive my betting.

    Perhaps the equivalent here would be focusing on regional strength/campaigning capability. The Conservatives' money may not help them, but it certainly won't hurt.

    I still think the SNP will do extremely well.

    Too warm? It's just 17C tops...

    Need to crank it up another 10C at least to get into the "warm" category!
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    taffys said:

    '' Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it ''.

    Will people in key English marginals really turn out for ed Milliband? I have my doubts.

    Come off it.

    If the polls are this close come the evening of 6th May 2015, as many voters in the marginals will be coming out to vote for Ed as for Dave and it will all be about the ground war.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    edited April 2015
    kjohnw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    it would be quite ironic with the boundary changes having being denied the tories, if their vote has become more efficient with labour piling up votes in safe seats. If that is the case they do not need to be 7% ahead to get a majority. Ed's 35% strategy would have a massive hole blown in it
    Scotland has ensured that the gap needed by the Conservatives to gain a majority over Labour is at least TWO whole % higher than it otherwise would have been.
    Yes but if labour are piling their votes up in safe seats this could be distorting true VI figures, the true tory figure could be higher if they are putting on votes where it counts - in the marginals
    Ashcroft's fieldwork suggests they aren't !
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I looked it up on the Times site as I was so intrigued. I noticed that the Spurgeon family placed TWO notices re deceased pets that went to the Basket In The Sky years ago... thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/courtsocial/article4401689.ece
    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    @TOPPING - I really can't tell re that Pet Announcements, I really can't. Is there a Postgraduate & Special Blacks Classes at Crufts? I had a kitty called Chekhov - he was obviously an intellectual, not a starship navigator. I note The Times has a dedicated email to place a notice though...

    I just read a few of them, thought "what is the world coming to?" and left it at that.

    Did they really have that class at Crufts? Where am I? Oh god...

    I am confused (not an especially untypical state of affairs).
  • paulbarkerpaulbarker Posts: 77
    Labour are only holding up if by that we mean that they are still falling slowly. Most polling averages have the Tories ahead, by anything from 0.1% to 1%. Only 4 months ago Labour had a 3% lead so the trend is clear.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyAnushka: PM baulks after Sam Cam takes gulp of stout and says "I normally drink this when I'm pregnant". He replies: "that's not an announcement!"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,710
    Way off-topic:

    Looking at the map I linked to earlier, I've just noticed that the Clacton constituency includes Bramble Island, once an explosives works, and now used for explosives disposal.

    It was one stretch of the coast where I had to divert inland ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Overall majority probabilities by model:

    Hanretty:

    Hung Parliament 0.92
    Conservative Majority 0.05
    Labour Majority 0.03

    Fisher:

    Labour majority 0.00
    Conservative majority 0.20
    Hung 0.80

    Baxter:

    Labour majority 0.23
    Con Majority 0.19
    Hung 0.58
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,710
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. S, must be said, I really, really don't like the heat. Much prefer cold weather.

    And my computer room is south-facing, so it's the hottest room in the house.

    Agree. In winter you get the clearest skies and best views. You can always slip on another jumper or turn the heating up. There's little I can do in summer to cool down besides going topless, and most people don't appreciate seeing a walking furball....
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    WelshBertie said:

    It may be that Labour are piling on the votes in their safe seats where people didn't like the Tories but didn't vote at the last election...along with some token former libdems coming over. They've been unbelievably efficient with their vote at previous election, could the data the academics have seen shown this is unwinding. This also may be true in reverse with the Tories. Have UKIP pinched some of their shire majorities which masks their state in battleground seats?

    Or maybe pigs can fly.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    paulbarker said:

    Labour are only holding up if by that we mean that they are still falling slowly. Most polling averages have the Tories ahead, by anything from 0.1% to 1%. Only 4 months ago Labour had a 3% lead so the trend is clear.

    Labour is not falling. The Tories are going up a touch mostly because UKIP's edging down.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. S, must be said, I really, really don't like the heat. Much prefer cold weather.

    And my computer room is south-facing, so it's the hottest room in the house.

    Agree. In winter you get the clearest skies and best views. You can always slip on another jumper or turn the heating up. There's little I can do in summer to cool down besides going topless, and most people don't appreciate seeing a walking furball....
    Being a weather 'nut', I love both very cold and very warm weather.

    Yes , I'm probably mad....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Jessop, quite right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

    Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

    I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

    But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

    This might be of interest:
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
    I think it was defining coastline that proved to be the barrier to answering this question the last time I thought of it. The Ordnance Survey seem to provide a solution, though. They draw a coastline boundary onto the Westminster constituencies, whereas in other places the river estuary has a line running up the middle of it to form a boundary between two constituencies. So one defines a coastal constituency as one that has an electoral boundary on that map which is not shared with another constituency. Thus Eastleigh and New Forest East are coastal constituencies, but Southampton Itchen is not.

    This gets me to a total of 103 coastal constituencies, out of 533 for England as a whole.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jessop, quite right.

    The way you make it sound, your computer room is so hot, that two Hobbits are going to turn up and throw a ring into your computer room.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    No chance of a Tory majority and 300 seats is the Tory seat ceiling right now.
  • AlanSAlanS Posts: 9
    paulbarker said:

    Labour are only holding up if by that we mean that they are still falling slowly. Most polling averages have the Tories ahead, by anything from 0.1% to 1%. Only 4 months ago Labour had a 3% lead so the trend is clear.

    Yup - so on that trend we get to polling day with Tories about 1.5% ahead, which seems to be what the seats market is expecting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    UNS. I don't know. I can see this is the election that finally breaks UNS.

    The Lib Dems are set to outperform it for starters.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    OT. Jessop. With your Turkish connections it's worth seeing 'The Water Diviner' directed by Russell Crowe. Most of it set in Istanbul in the 20's. I've been to Istanbul many times and it's one of my favourite cities and this had a strange flavour of the place which make me feel quite nostalgic
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    MikeSmithson said:

    paulbarker said:

    Labour are only holding up if by that we mean that they are still falling slowly. Most polling averages have the Tories ahead, by anything from 0.1% to 1%. Only 4 months ago Labour had a 3% lead so the trend is clear.

    Labour is not falling. The Tories are going up a touch mostly because UKIP's edging down.

    So UKIP went from 3% to 15%, the Cons went from 37% to 34% and this latest Cons improvement is all UKIP support edging down?

    Hmmm.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    BenM said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour is going to lose 35 to 40 seats in Scotland. That means winning the same amount elsewhere just to stand still. London and the NW will deliver some gains, but will also see existing Labour majorities increase as 2010 and 2005 LDs return home. In Wales not much will change - two or three gains, perhaps. And then what? The Midlands - East and West - look very tough (Corby might be worth a bet on the Tories), the South is a write-off, Yorkshire, hmmm. All in all, therefore, it really is hard to see Labour making much of a net advance on its current total. Being an anti-Tory above all else, I would take 260 Labour seats on 8th May any day of the week right now. My worry is that as the campaign progresses, Labour will slip back and the Tories will move closer to a de facto majority.

    No chance of a Tory majority and 300 seats is the Tory seat ceiling right now.

    A de facto majority could be around 300 depending on how the rest end up. 300 plus 20-30 LDs and assorted Ulstermen on confidence and supply is all the Tories need, though that should be enough to control their more swivel-eyed tendencies.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

    Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

    I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

    But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

    This might be of interest:
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
    I make it about 168.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    On topic not trusting either marginals polls or regional subsamples I'd do Scotland separately as it clearly has its own thing going on then just add a bit to the Lab score for the rest. So start with say Lab 35 seats down for Scotland, then add 1.5% to the Lab score and Baxter that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    MikeSmithson said:

    paulbarker said:

    Labour are only holding up if by that we mean that they are still falling slowly. Most polling averages have the Tories ahead, by anything from 0.1% to 1%. Only 4 months ago Labour had a 3% lead so the trend is clear.

    Labour is not falling. The Tories are going up a touch mostly because UKIP's edging down.

    Tories plus UKIP in 2010 (GB-wide) = 40%
    Tories plus UKIP in latest ELBOW (5/4/2015) = 48%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a WTF???
    Scott_P said:

    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    Latest ELBOW puts them on 13.7%, their lowest score since August......

    http://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585152029879836673/photo/1
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes

    and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    Lolwut?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    Scott n'paste

    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF

    Thanks for letting us all know the thoughts of Anita Singh. If it wasn't for you I might have missed it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Isn't she FKA Anita Amand the R5 and Politics show presenter?
    Roger said:

    Scott n'paste

    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF

    Thanks for letting us all know the thoughts of Anita Singh. If it wasn't for you I might have missed it.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    what polling are we expecting this week?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UNS has reasonably worked in every election apart 1997, and that was due to anti-Tory tactical voting.
    I think it will work again but only if you exclude Scotland and move a few seats from the Tories to the LD.
    But UNS in E&W will be accurate within a margin of +-10 seats for each of the 4 big parties.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Not such aid nor such defenders does the time require. RT @BorisJohnson: Blair to rescue Mili? Non tali auxilio nec defensoribus istis.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Eagles, I'd be delighted if people who stole my jewellery returned it to my residence voluntarily.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    "When a serious figure like Tony Blair warns UK national interest is threatened by a Tory 2nd term, people from all parties should take note."

    Oh my.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Things you never thought you'd see, number one: Spanish two year bond yields slipped into negative territory today. People actually paid the Spanish government to hold their money.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.
    Month by month? Peak was November - Reckless.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Interesting talking to voters in Glasgow today how many people mention not just historic problems with Labour but also doubts about Ed M

    @bbclaurak: Concern though too from some voters about what one of them described is 'dark side' to SNP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Ed doing his best to push away his left flank, whilst inviting comparisons to a three time election winner.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.
    Month by month? Peak was November - Reckless.
    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
    Depends on your method

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    I guess one factor was the relative frequency of those Mirror/Observer polls which showed them on 20-25%...


  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    How many continuous months of decline before you would say it wasn't noise ?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. 1000, is there some sort of reason behind that?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    Slackbladder said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes

    and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    Lolwut?
    What does that mean?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    Pulpstar

    "When a serious figure like Tony Blair warns UK national interest is threatened by a Tory 2nd term, people from all parties should take note."

    Indeed. We could take it as a 45 minute warning
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato said:

    Isn't she FKA Anita Amand the R5 and Politics show presenter?

    Roger said:

    Scott n'paste

    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF

    Thanks for letting us all know the thoughts of Anita Singh. If it wasn't for you I might have missed it.

    No.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    How many continuous months of decline before you would say it wasn't noise ?

    It was a steep climb followed by months of gentle decline, which seems to be settling at a higher level than pre the steep climb, isn't this obvious?

    You are effectively laughing at a Southampton fan who said at the start of the season they would finish top ten, because they are 7th or 8th now having been an unrealistic 3rd in December.. embarrassing lack of nous
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    I can simulate many of the forecasting systems, and it doesn't seem to me that Uniform (regional) Swing or proportional make a huge difference to the Lab/Con margin. It makes a huge difference to the LDs though - the difference between a handful of seats and somewhere in the 20s. The Ashcroft polls are built into a lot of the forecasting methodologies now, especially (but not only) the academic ones. If the Ashcroft polls are wrong there could be some embarrassed forecasters..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ah, she's the DT's Ent & Arts Ed. Very similar twitter handle. She's @tweeter_anita rather than @anitathetweeter!
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    Isn't she FKA Anita Amand the R5 and Politics show presenter?

    Roger said:

    Scott n'paste

    @anitathetweeter: Ed really has mastered interviews, hasn't he? http://t.co/MMlD023ABF

    Thanks for letting us all know the thoughts of Anita Singh. If it wasn't for you I might have missed it.

    No.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    .
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    For those wanting to back a Tory Majority, Skybet's 18/1 on Lab 201-225 looks like a pretty good proxy at basically 3x the price.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    How many continuous months of decline before you would say it wasn't noise ?

    It was a steep climb followed by months of gentle decline, which seems to be settling at a higher level than pre the steep climb, isn't this obvious?

    You are effectively laughing at a Southampton fan who said at the start of the season they would finish top ten, because they are 7th or 8th now having been an unrealistic 3rd in December.. embarrassing lack of nous
    I'd have said Newcastle.. Southampton are still trying to get into Europe.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,208
    edited April 2015
    Greece claiming 279 billion Euros war reparations from the Germans.

    http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/04/07/actualidad/1428400924_433682.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited April 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, is there some sort of reason behind that?

    ECB action (QE essentially). It began last month.

    http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/04/07/actualidad/1428397834_464541.html

    It's happening in France too.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    How many continuous months of decline before you would say it wasn't noise ?

    It was a steep climb followed by months of gentle decline, which seems to be settling at a higher level than pre the steep climb, isn't this obvious?

    You are effectively laughing at a Southampton fan who said at the start of the season they would finish top ten, because they are 7th or 8th now having been an unrealistic 3rd in December.. embarrassing lack of nous
    I'd have said Newcastle.. Southampton are still trying to get into Europe.
    Ha.. not bad! A little humour is always welcome

    Ok I am off for a little bike ride, play nicely
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    geoffw said:

    Greece claiming 279 billion Euros war reparations from the Germans.

    http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/04/07/actualidad/1428400924_433682.html

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_occupation_of_Greece
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    How many continuous months of decline before you would say it wasn't noise ?

    It was a steep climb followed by months of gentle decline, which seems to be settling at a higher level than pre the steep climb, isn't this obvious?

    You are effectively laughing at a Southampton fan who said at the start of the season they would finish top ten, because they are 7th or 8th now having been an unrealistic 3rd in December.. embarrassing lack of nous
    I'd have said Newcastle.. Southampton are still trying to get into Europe.
    Ha.. not bad! A little humour is always welcome

    Ok I am off for a little bike ride, play nicely
    Why are you still riding a little bike? :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Bloody Hell just seen Tony on Twitter.

    Cuprinol shares up 90%.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Thought of the day - It is often said that people don't vote as they're "fed up" with politicians.

    Is it not quite possible that the exact polar opposite is the case? I wonder how much of voter apathy is due not to voters being angry with politics but genuinely apathetic about it because they're quite content to just lead their own lives and aren't bothered by politics.

    In the same way that concerns about the economy drop in the Issues Index when the economy is going well (and conversely rise when the economy is doing badly), could the lack of concern many show about politics nowadays be due to being overall rather contented. If you're not excited about anything politics-wise, then the X-Factor may be more interesting than the election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    TGOHF said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.
    Month by month? Peak was November - Reckless.
    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
    Depends on your method

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    I guess one factor was the relative frequency of those Mirror/Observer polls which showed them on 20-25%...


    But the second by-election was in November... just sayin'...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Observer, cheers for that.

    Mr. W, not sure that'll be forthcoming.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    It was a steep climb followed by months of gentle decline, which seems to be settling at a higher level than pre the steep climb, isn't this obvious?

    You are effectively laughing at a Southampton fan who said at the start of the season they would finish top ten, because they are 7th or 8th now having been an unrealistic 3rd in December.. embarrassing lack of nous

    It will be interesting to see what happens after the General Election if as expected UKIP win a few, but very few, seats.

    Without trying to be offensive the rise of UKIP seems quite parallel to the rise and subsequent fall of the BNP a few years ago. In 2009 the BNP won two seats and for a few years they were gaining in Local Elections too with 38 in 2008, then the decline set in and in 2013 they failed to win even a single Local seat and in 2014 they failed to win even a single seat in Europe. Their collapse has been a sudden as their rise.

    I'm not suggesting that UKIP is policy-wise or otherwise the same as the BNP, but that the rise is similar to its rise (and the Green's previously) and could equally be met with a future fall before very long. Especially I suspect if voting UKIP is thought to be a wasted vote after May 8.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Tissue_Price said:

    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

    Wow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, is there some sort of reason behind that?

    It's a combination of factors:

    1. Eurozone QE
    2. The structure of Spanish debt. Unlike some other countries I might mention, Spain has done a pretty good job of pushing out the maturities of their debt. The result of this is that there is remarkably little short term Spanish debt available.*
    3. The Spanish economy continues to be the fastest improving in Europe. It wouldn't surprise me if it grew 3.5% in 2015.

    * This matters because a lot of money is invested through index funds these days that have set proportions of debt they need to buy. If they are supposed to buy 20% Spanish debt, they have to do it, even if it means paying the wrong price for it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    Scot n'paste

    I've found her! Google helpfully printed her last tweet.......

    "The Mindfulness Diet summed up: eat salad like every other miserable diet, but breathe deeply first ..."

    I don't know where you find these people Scott but she sounds fascinating.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Tissue_Price said:

    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

    It's interesting how little support there is for UKIP in the the Jewish community, especially given how pro-Palestinian the EU has tended to be.

    (That being said, a lot my Jewish friends are very anti-Bibi. So, who knows.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. 1000, is that growth rate, and debt rate, why Podemas[sp] isn't steaming ahead?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage admitting peak Kipper. Just the disciples now..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11519587/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-support-has-slipped-back-seven-months.html

    "Nigel Farage: Ukip support has slipped back seven months"

    You really are foolish.. it is embarrassing to see this

    No one has said UKIP aren't slipping back from the highs of the by election successes.. the point is that you never said it until they already were, so cant claim to have called it, and more importantly, they are higher now than they were before the by election highs
    I didn't "call it" as a prediction - I simply looked at the graphs of polling - hardly rocket science - Nige appears to have looked at the graphs too and is being honest. Kipper support in the polls peaked around September and has fallen month on month since - in an unrelenting fashion.


    Yes things that are travelling in an upward direction long term have many peaks and troughs.. you like to call the peaks (after they happen) but the long term direction is upward.

    There are signals and there is noise

    Higher than before Carswells defection is a signal you should take notice of. The noise was that UKIP would be below 10% by now not higher than last Sep
    There is no evidence that the previous month's (or year's) move in a party's opinion poll ratings has any predictive power whatsoever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    rcs1000 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    Based on the JC commentary maybe the bet is Con HOLD Hendon @ 7/2? I'm certainly not tempted by Con GAIN Leeds NE @ 22/1 :D

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support

    It's interesting how little support there is for UKIP in the the Jewish community, especially given how pro-Palestinian the EU has tended to be.

    (That being said, a lot my Jewish friends are very anti-Bibi. So, who knows.)
    Alot of Israel is anti-Bibi... except when they get to the voting booth ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    TP

    "VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support"

    So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited April 2015
    He's a very naughty boy then?

    https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/585459174030635008
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Roger said:

    TP

    "VI amongst Jews (tables):

    Con 69
    Lab 22
    LD 2
    UKIP 2

    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/133508/blame-toxic-ed-labours-loss-support"

    So the Jewish Chronicle call it for Cameron! Apparently it's all down to Ed's opposition to Israels foreign policy. That'll do him a lot of damage with the rest of the population!

    It was that bacon butty that did it for him with Jewish voters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, is that growth rate, and debt rate, why Podemas[sp] isn't steaming ahead?

    OK...

    Spain's economy is growing because it now has the most flexible labour market in Europe (with the exception of Ireland and the UK), because it has great infrastructure, and because it has a cheap and relatively well educated workforce. The government also sorted out the banks (they closed 38 of the 40 Caixia) and forced those that remained to take massive write-downs and raise lots of capital. The result of this is that the Spanish economy added something like 90,000 jobs in both January and February. (Numbers that are about half the level of what the US is adding... and Spain is one eighth the size.)

    Podemos seems to be falling off a cliff too. The latest opinion poll - from 5 April - has Podemos on 14.1%, 10% below the Socialists, and less than half the level of the PP. Podemos is only a few percent ahead of the rapidly pro-European Citizen's Party.
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