politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tori
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling
“In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear” but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour government”.With one month until the polls open, Mr Cameron made his most emotional appeal to people who have flirted with supporting Ukip and said:
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and he snipes the first!0
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If they can get that 30% back, that would be a couple more points in the polls....0
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The UKIP being a place for disgruntled Tories theory has probably been the most repeated misconception during this term. I think the British Election Study found UKIP is largely made up of traditional working class Labour types who either didn't bother voting in 2010 or voted Conservative for the first time.
The potential net gain for the Conservatives over Labour if UKIP drop back is only small assuming they filter to the respective parties relatively evenly.0 -
I aimed to be gentlemanly, not taking advantage of my time zone. No such modesty among the new world types!RobD said:and he snipes the first!
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I'm an old worlder who has infiltrated the new. Just making sure peter doesn't get itdugarbandier said:
I aimed to be gentlemanly, not taking advantage of my time zone. No such modesty among the new world types!RobD said:and he snipes the first!
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gone native! and good luck to you.RobD said:
I'm an old worlder who has infiltrated the new. Just making sure peter doesn't get itdugarbandier said:
I aimed to be gentlemanly, not taking advantage of my time zone. No such modesty among the new world types!RobD said:and he snipes the first!
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Somewhat obviously, Cameron was targeting the 32%. - ~3% nationally? would certainly come in handy.0
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You can't deny that Cameron has some brass neck. After several years of pursuing policies that p*ss of social conservatives, of insulting them, branding them fruitcakes (and possibly ting tongs) he suddenly comes over all ecumenical and wants their vote! He isn't offering anything of course, not the slightly bone being throw their way except a bit of meaningless window dressing and cant, "vote for me, I am not quite as crap as EdM". I can see them ripping off their purples rosettes and racing for the Tory campaign office in droves at that message. Idiot.0
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Yes, Cameron has some brass neck. Making the Conservative Party broader in its appeal so that it replaces those who have gone to UKIP. The horror....Indigo said:You can't deny that Cameron has some brass neck. After several years of pursuing policies that p*ss of social conservatives, of insulting them, branding them fruitcakes (and possibly ting tongs) he suddenly comes over all ecumenical and wants their vote! He isn't offering anything of course, not the slightly bone being throw their way except a bit of meaningless window dressing and cant, "vote for me, I am not quite as crap as EdM". I can see them ripping off their purples rosettes and racing for the Tory campaign office in droves at that message. Idiot.
Let's remember something. Farage set out with one avowed aim: breaking up the Tory party. Regardless of whether this was to the short-term detriment of the UK by allowing in an utterly inept Labour Party, devoid of any atonement for having fecked the economy last time, with a leader spouting out sixth-form politics that would do it all again. Regardless of whether it was intellectually bankrupt to block power to the only party offering the one thing that was supposedly the sole component of UKIP's DNA - an In/Out Referendum.
Well, guess what - Farage's ambition has failed. The Tory Party is virtually back to where it was in 2010, with a large component of those who made it so toxic now housed in UKIP. But in amongst, we have lost some good people, people who if not political brothers, are at least political cousins. People who share a greater concern over the fate of the UK than over Farage's bruised ego.
So don't get all sniffy now Cameron has come and parked his tanks on your lawn to ask them back. But it will not be at the price of pissing of those who have more recently entered his broad church. Together, we could have the votes for a majority - a majority that could then address many of those concerns that raise the average Kippers' blood pressure by thirty points. But that is a decision for them to reach. And recently, we are seeing that is a decision many are prepared to consider. There is just too much at stake for the country.
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I think the fruitcakes comment is quite old, more than 5 years, and the ting tong comment was made by a UKIP MEP, not a Tory let alone Cameron himself.Indigo said:You can't deny that Cameron has some brass neck. After several years of pursuing policies that p*ss of social conservatives, of insulting them, branding them fruitcakes (and possibly ting tongs) he suddenly comes over all ecumenical and wants their vote! He isn't offering anything of course, not the slightly bone being throw their way except a bit of meaningless window dressing and cant, "vote for me, I am not quite as crap as EdM". I can see them ripping off their purples rosettes and racing for the Tory campaign office in droves at that message. Idiot.
There may well be a fair amount of false recall amongst those who poll kipper. DNV may be believable but I think that five years is a long time for many people to remember how they voted, with Euro and local elections in the meantime.
In any case, with the UKIP vote dropping significantly over the last months, is it not an obvious place to look for votes? The Tories are on 35% ish and need some extra votes from somewhere, appealing to other parties supporters whether kipper, LD or Labour has to be done.
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Yep you're right Mr Smithson but its that bit you say "even if a third of a third" could be persuaded [or 2/3rds of a 1/3rd!] then he has to do this pitch. With such a close election every vote may count so really DC would be crackers not to go for this.
A more significant intervention today may have come from Tony Blair who is critical of Camerons EU stance. That could really help Cameron win back some kippers.0 -
You put it much better than me :-)SimonStClare said:Somewhat obviously, Cameron was targeting the 32%. - ~3% nationally? would certainly come in handy.
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Not my lawn, I am one of the right of the conservative party that is still in the party, although feeling pretty unappreciated by my leader who allegedly wanted a broad church, but is trying his hardest to turn it into the Orange Book LD party.MarqueeMark said:So don't get all sniffy now Cameron has come and parked his tanks on your lawn to ask them back. But it will not be at the price of pissing of those who have more recently entered his broad church. Together, we could have the votes for a majority - a majority that could then address many of those concerns that raise the average Kippers' blood pressure by thirty points. But that is a decision for them to reach. And recently, we are seeing that is a decision many are prepared to consider. There is just too much at stake for the country.
It complete cant to accuse Farage of stealing anyone, or saddling the UK with anyone, he offers a platform, the Tories offer a platform, the votes pick the one they like the sound of, if not enough voters like the Conservative platform that is the conservative parties fault, not the kippers. You sounds like a restaurant complaining that he is losing customers because his neighbours food tastes better.
Clapping ourselves on the back because the voters are scared of a Miliband government is the height of sadness, and implies heavily that in a time with a more certain outcome there will be a big swing away from the Conservatives as there is less likelihood of putting Ed in.0 -
I am aware of that, I was taking the p*ss out of TGOHF and Flightpath who have long held the view that insulting kippers was the way to get them to vote for the Conservative Partyfoxinsoxuk said:I think the fruitcakes comment is quite old, more than 5 years, and the ting tong comment was made by a UKIP MEP, not a Tory let alone Cameron himself.
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"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
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Also not all of the 2010 Conservatives now supporting UKIP will be ex-Tories for whom Cameron isn't right-wing enough. Some of them may have been telling pollsters in 2012 that they would vote Labour.0
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I think this is what I alluded to yesterday, and may in some ways be Cameron's greatest strength, the "Michael Foot Effect". It doesn't matter how sparkling the oratory, how shining the intellect, this country doesn't elect a leader in a donkey jacket(*), and Tories can hope, by extension a leader that looks weird and can't eat a bacon sandwich. Its depressing that politics is of so little consequence to most voters, but there isn't much that can be done about it.foxinsoxuk said:I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
(*) Yes I know it wasn't a donkey jacket, and was actually quite an expensive coat, but that isn't what the voters saw.
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Not all those considering voting UKIP are as antipathetic to the Conservatives as the green ink brigade that you see so much of online. Nor do they necessarily see themselves as one of Nigel Farage's fanboys. Quite a lot of them are just generally pissed off.Indigo said:You can't deny that Cameron has some brass neck. After several years of pursuing policies that p*ss of social conservatives, of insulting them, branding them fruitcakes (and possibly ting tongs) he suddenly comes over all ecumenical and wants their vote! He isn't offering anything of course, not the slightly bone being throw their way except a bit of meaningless window dressing and cant, "vote for me, I am not quite as crap as EdM". I can see them ripping off their purples rosettes and racing for the Tory campaign office in droves at that message. Idiot.
The Conservatives have identified a realistic possibility that appals most kipper considerers: a Labour minority government propped up by the SNP, with Scotland being doled out power and money as a result. They think this can change votes and this appeal is part of that strategy.
They don't think that they're going to get enthusiastic votes from these voters. But they have hopes of getting their votes. That blue segment in that pie chart may yet shrink more.0 -
I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. Of course it may be the case for some that they have been waiting for years and have finally got a party that they think is worth voting for so they will be motivated like never before but....
UKIP are almost certainly going to underperform their current polling whether the Tory element comes home or not. I think they will be like Labour who also get support from those not minded to vote. The golden rule on here was that the lowest polling figure for Labour was the most accurate (and it was usually ICM). I will be surprised if UKIP breaks 10%.0 -
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
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The new Labour poster on GP's is utter rubbish in content but brilliantly effective, forget the narrative it is first impression that matters.
To counter that Blair being wheeled out to champion the EU and slag off Cameron's referendum is an absolute gift to the Tories, they should hammer Labour over it.
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Would that be the UKIP party led by the Public School educated financier Nigel Farage? Who took over from the old Etonian Lord Rannoch as Leader? Whose two MPs are ex public school boys?DecrepitJohnL said:
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
There are alternative parties out there for those who dislike our public school elite, but UKIP are not plausibly amongst them!0 -
That's the advantage of being the boss: the voters can say and do whatever they like and the politicos just have to suck it upfoxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!0 -
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.0 -
Assuming, for now a 15% UKIP share, the 32% of those who voted CON in 2010 amount to 5% of the national vote (while the 12.6% who voted LAB in 2010 amount to 2%).
For argument's sake, the national polls are CON 34%, LAB 33%. If all the Kippers who "recall" their vote in 2010 reverted to their original parties, that would mean CON 39% LAB 35%.
Would that make the difference between Cameron in No. 10 and Milliband in No. 10? Almost certainly.0 -
Did it show that? The areas with the lowest electoral turnout in general elections also had some of the lowest for the indyref, and as I recall the areas that voted YES had lower turnouts than those who voted NO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A family anecdote: my father who has supported UKIP for years told me at dinner yesterday that he would be voting Conservative. He always votes...0 -
Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.0 -
@PeterMannionMP: Apparently we didn't see the happy warrior all weekend as he was buffing his chainmail and polishing his helmet for the challengers debate.0
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I find it odd that UK political reporting is so shallow. People actually get paid to come up with rubbish like that bacon sandwich fluff.Indigo said:
I think this is what I alluded to yesterday, and may in some ways be Cameron's greatest strength, the "Michael Foot Effect". It doesn't matter how sparkling the oratory, how shining the intellect, this country doesn't elect a leader in a donkey jacket(*), and Tories can hope, by extension a leader that looks weird and can't eat a bacon sandwich. Its depressing that politics is of so little consequence to most voters, but there isn't much that can be done about it.foxinsoxuk said:I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
(*) Yes I know it wasn't a donkey jacket, and was actually quite an expensive coat, but that isn't what the voters saw.
While perceptions of individuals matter, Mr Miliband being weird, Mr Cameron snobbish etc, I don't think it moves many votes.
It surprises me that we don't see articles examining policy differences between the parties. Evaluations of the consequences of those differences, and the consequences of the absence of difference.0 -
The Indyref was truly exceptional. Thank goodness it was a once in a generation thing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.
Even there, though, the SNP attempts to make non voters into voters was not as successful as they hoped making the gap for No bigger than expected. And UKIP will never come close to matching the SNP ground operation that worked so hard on the non-voters.0 -
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: UKIP in panic after losing a quarter of voters in five months - and new SoS sent out to try to save Farage http://t.co/EVvduyxkfG0
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3% of voters might be the difference between getting Ed as PM or sticking with Cameron0
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Ed will have to pop his head up sometime this week otherwise the media will on his tail...DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.0 -
Does Ed really need a couple of weeks to prepare for the Challengers Debate? Or is it deliberate to keep his profile low?DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
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True, reporting is shallow. But perceptions are strong.anotherDave said:
I find it odd that UK political reporting is so shallow. People actually get paid to come up with rubbish like that bacon sandwich fluff.Indigo said:
I think this is what I alluded to yesterday, and may in some ways be Cameron's greatest strength, the "Michael Foot Effect". It doesn't matter how sparkling the oratory, how shining the intellect, this country doesn't elect a leader in a donkey jacket(*), and Tories can hope, by extension a leader that looks weird and can't eat a bacon sandwich. Its depressing that politics is of so little consequence to most voters, but there isn't much that can be done about it.foxinsoxuk said:I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
(*) Yes I know it wasn't a donkey jacket, and was actually quite an expensive coat, but that isn't what the voters saw.
While perceptions of individuals matter, Mr Miliband being weird, Mr Cameron snobbish etc, I don't think it moves many votes.
It surprises me that we don't see articles examining policy differences between the parties. Evaluations of the consequences of those differences, and the consequences of the absence of difference.
On the Foot thing. Yes it was not a donkey jacket, but it looked like one and why would someone wear what looked like a donkey jacket at the cenotaph? Either you are stupid or could not care. Both pretty damning.
Unfortunately for Foot he also looked as if he did not know where he was. And thats before you looked at Labours manifesto.0 -
Are you assuming every single person will go back ?MikeGreene said:Assuming, for now a 15% UKIP share, the 32% of those who voted CON in 2010 amount to 5% of the national vote (while the 12.6% who voted LAB in 2010 amount to 2%).
For argument's sake, the national polls are CON 34%, LAB 33%. If all the Kippers who "recall" their vote in 2010 reverted to their original parties, that would mean CON 39% LAB 35%.
Would that make the difference between Cameron in No. 10 and Milliband in No. 10? Almost certainly.0 -
It seems hard to believe doesn't it? Especially when we have seen how sterile and policy light the "debates" actually are. It is not as if he is going to have to explain the irrationality and inconsistency of his ZHC policy for example. At worst he will have to deal with a couple of less than polished soundbites suggesting his superficial and faintly ridiculous proposal was not nearly superficial or ridiculous enough.foxinsoxuk said:
Does Ed really need a couple of weeks to prepare for the Challengers Debate? Or is it deliberate to keep his profile low?DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
This next debate should be all about Sturgeon against Miliband with 30 seats at stake. He did not interact with her at all when DC was there but that surely has to be his focus now. Maybe he is trying to learn something about Scotland. In which case one wonders if he has given it enough time.0 -
The use of Bliar (for that is how many people still remember him) almost shouts of desperation - is this a Mandelson wheeze?
All it does is says that Labour is afraid of giving the people a choice and even more so, does not want people to have a choice - as Labour knows best!! - not very democratic.
Also how does the image of an ex-PM who used the Labour party as a vehicle to enrich himself hugely, fit in with their supposed support of the working man and woman - or is it an acknowledgement that they have abandoned them to UKIP?0 -
Business lobby group, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), estimated that the UK's economy expanded by 0.7% in the three months to March, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter.
It also said growth would probably gather some momentum in the current quarter.
The main risk to the UK economy was related to ongoing eurozone worries and Greece's bailout package, it said.
CBI's monthly survey includes 764 private firms from a range of sectors.
It said businesses in the UK would also need to cope with a stronger pound, which was already weighing down weak export growth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-321999580 -
Would it be in Sturgeon's interest to point that out in the debate? It would help Labour presumably, but how much does she want to help Labour? A Labour majority is no good to her.foxinsoxuk said:
Would that be the UKIP party led by the Public School educated financier Nigel Farage? Who took over from the old Etonian Lord Rannoch as Leader? Whose two MPs are ex public school boys?DecrepitJohnL said:
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
There are alternative parties out there for those who dislike our public school elite, but UKIP are not plausibly amongst them!
On the other hand does Miliband want to boast about going down the class warrior route? And he in turn does not want to weaken possible UKIP support to the benefit of tories?
Head exploding stuff.
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A boss who behaved as capriciously - I nearly wrote "childishly" - as do swing voters would either be sacked or go bankrupt in months. It's a nice analogy, Charles, I only wish it worked.Charles said:
That's the advantage of being the boss: the voters can say and do whatever they like and the politicos just have to suck it upfoxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
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The reason we don't have a more detailed back-and-forth debate where Miliband would have to defend the detail of policies is because David Cameron blocked a one-on-one.DavidL said:
It seems hard to believe doesn't it? Especially when we have seen how sterile and policy light the "debates" actually are. It is not as if he is going to have to explain the irrationality and inconsistency of his ZHC policy for example. At worst he will have to deal with a couple of less than polished soundbites suggesting his superficial and faintly ridiculous proposal was not nearly superficial or ridiculous enough.foxinsoxuk said:
Does Ed really need a couple of weeks to prepare for the Challengers Debate? Or is it deliberate to keep his profile low?DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
This next debate should be all about Sturgeon against Miliband with 30 seats at stake. He did not interact with her at all when DC was there but that surely has to be his focus now. Maybe he is trying to learn something about Scotland. In which case one wonders if he has given it enough time.0 -
You miss the point. To a voter fed up with their usual Labour or Conservative representatives, those parties look the same -- the metropolitan elite, isolated by wealth and background from their traditional supporters from the factory floor or boardroom respectively. Many of them were even on the same course, PPE, at Oxford, for crying out loud. They even look the same -- they are about the same age, and as has been noted recently, they even dress the same (dark suit, or for the more casual look, dark blue jumper over a light blue shirt).foxinsoxuk said:
Would that be the UKIP party led by the Public School educated financier Nigel Farage? Who took over from the old Etonian Lord Rannoch as Leader? Whose two MPs are ex public school boys?DecrepitJohnL said:
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
There are alternative parties out there for those who dislike our public school elite, but UKIP are not plausibly amongst them!
And there are no substantial differences in policies -- Conservatives are not going to end immigration or bring back grammar schools. Labour will not nationalise the steelworks and shipyards. The rhetoric may be different but the policies are the same. Oh, there's been a recent kerfuffle over hidden plans to increase VAT or draw more people into higher rate bands, but if the plans are hidden, how can voters support them?
I'm no kipper and I suspect nor are most Ukip voters -- rather, they are NOTA. For the same reason, it doesn't matter if Green policies are impractical -- their voters already know they will never be enacted.0 -
Indeed one would have thought that the best preparation for the debate would be getting out and about on the stump, rather than hiding in the bunker.DavidL said:
It seems hard to believe doesn't it? Especially when we have seen how sterile and policy light the "debates" actually are. It is not as if he is going to have to explain the irrationality and inconsistency of his ZHC policy for example. At worst he will have to deal with a couple of less than polished soundbites suggesting his superficial and faintly ridiculous proposal was not nearly superficial or ridiculous enough.foxinsoxuk said:
Does Ed really need a couple of weeks to prepare for the Challengers Debate? Or is it deliberate to keep his profile low?DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
This next debate should be all about Sturgeon against Miliband with 30 seats at stake. He did not interact with her at all when DC was there but that surely has to be his focus now. Maybe he is trying to learn something about Scotland. In which case one wonders if he has given it enough time.0 -
The Telegraph article may, obviously, be unreliable given it is in a paper which doesn't fact check. It says that Cons and Lib Dems did not refuse an invite which was what I believed from other sources.DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
That means Tory and Lib Dem policy cannot be challenged. It also means when, for example, Sturgeon makes a statement such as "we are against Austerity unlike X", X can ONLY be Labour, not Labour, Lib Dem and Tories.
I'm not sure how comfortable that will be for Miliband.0 -
As long as he doesn't come to Scotland again. The SNP are strong enough.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed one would have thought that the best preparation for the debate would be getting out and about on the stump, rather than hiding in the bunker.DavidL said:
It seems hard to believe doesn't it? Especially when we have seen how sterile and policy light the "debates" actually are. It is not as if he is going to have to explain the irrationality and inconsistency of his ZHC policy for example. At worst he will have to deal with a couple of less than polished soundbites suggesting his superficial and faintly ridiculous proposal was not nearly superficial or ridiculous enough.foxinsoxuk said:
Does Ed really need a couple of weeks to prepare for the Challengers Debate? Or is it deliberate to keep his profile low?DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
This next debate should be all about Sturgeon against Miliband with 30 seats at stake. He did not interact with her at all when DC was there but that surely has to be his focus now. Maybe he is trying to learn something about Scotland. In which case one wonders if he has given it enough time.0 -
In the past, many PBTories here wrote that since many of the UKIP strong areas were also true blue areas, then there will be very little effect on actual number of seats being lost.
The converse is also true. Reverting back to the Tories only buttresses the Tory majority.
I wonder we will now start reading all UKIP votes were in marginals,0 -
It is silly if Miliband is taking time off to prepare for the debate.He has some momentum after the debates and he should use it.
The guardian reported he will be taking time off over the Easter weekend,so I think we will see more of him today.0 -
That is a good point. Many of that 32% will indeed be in very safe seats and make no difference to the result at all.surbiton said:In the past, many PBTories here wrote that since many of the UKIP strong areas were also true blue areas, then there will be very little effect on actual number of seats being lost.
The converse is also true. Reverting back to the Tories only buttresses the Tory majority.
I wonder we will now start reading all UKIP votes were in marginals,0 -
Miliband's personal approval numbers have improved sharply - the more people have seen him.SMukesh said:It is silly if Miliband is taking time off to prepare for the debate.He has some momentum after the debates and he should use it.
The guardian reported he will be taking time off over the Easter weekend,so I think we will see more of him today.0 -
Week 1 of the campaign to Tories for sure but their momentum cut short by the debateLabour posters have been brilliant though unlike the stupid Tory ones.0
-
I don't really expect a poster who calls himself Financier to take this point, but what matters at least as much as the gross rate of economic expansion is its distribution between the top 1% and the rest of us.Financier said:Business lobby group, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), estimated that the UK's economy expanded by 0.7% in the three months to March, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter.
It also said growth would probably gather some momentum in the current quarter.
The main risk to the UK economy was related to ongoing eurozone worries and Greece's bailout package, it said.
CBI's monthly survey includes 764 private firms from a range of sectors.
It said businesses in the UK would also need to cope with a stronger pound, which was already weighing down weak export growth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32199958
0 -
It's not Ukip turning non-voters into voters: it's the Labour and Conservative Parties. Look at each party's account on Youtube -- very recent positive and negative videos -- American-style "attack ads" may be banned from television but they are allowed on Youtube, and various social media are no doubt used to point wavering voters at them.DavidL said:
The Indyref was truly exceptional. Thank goodness it was a once in a generation thing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.
Even there, though, the SNP attempts to make non voters into voters was not as successful as they hoped making the gap for No bigger than expected. And UKIP will never come close to matching the SNP ground operation that worked so hard on the non-voters.
0 -
Generations seem to have got a lot shorter.DavidL said:
The Indyref was truly exceptional. Thank goodness it was a once in a generation thing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.
Even there, though, the SNP attempts to make non voters into voters was not as successful as they hoped making the gap for No bigger than expected. And UKIP will never come close to matching the SNP ground operation that worked so hard on the non-voters.
It wasn't the SNP who were working on non-Voters that was predominantly a RIC operation.0 -
A recent presentation about LD prospects said that in LD/Con marginals Labour leaning voters who had previously supported LD candidates had now moved to UKIP.surbiton said:In the past, many PBTories here wrote that since many of the UKIP strong areas were also true blue areas, then there will be very little effect on actual number of seats being lost.
The converse is also true. Reverting back to the Tories only buttresses the Tory majority.
I wonder we will now start reading all UKIP votes were in marginals,
https://soundcloud.com/politicalstudiesassociation/dr-david-cutts-on-the-liberal-democrats-psa-media-briefing-10 -
I don't think that is plausible. So there is a debate but we cannot talk about the government !What should they talk about then ? The weather ?Dair said:
The Telegraph article may, obviously, be unreliable given it is in a paper which doesn't fact check. It says that Cons and Lib Dems did not refuse an invite which was what I believed from other sources.DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
That means Tory and Lib Dem policy cannot be challenged. It also means when, for example, Sturgeon makes a statement such as "we are against Austerity unlike X", X can ONLY be Labour, not Labour, Lib Dem and Tories.
I'm not sure how comfortable that will be for Miliband.0 -
The Ed in Salmond's pocket poster will almost certainly be the best remembered of this campaign. If anything is moving Kippers back to the Tories it was that.SMukesh said:Week 1 of the campaign to Tories for sure but their momentum cut short by the debateLabour posters have been brilliant though unlike the stupid Tory ones.
0 -
surbiton said:
Miliband's personal approval numbers have improved sharply - the more people have seen him.SMukesh said:It is silly if Miliband is taking time off to prepare for the debate.He has some momentum after the debates and he should use it.
The guardian reported he will be taking time off over the Easter weekend,so I think we will see more of him today.
Weren't we told that the more Miliband appears on TV,the worse Labour's poll ratings.
No sign of that yet.0 -
I would say that most of that is just about spot on.DecrepitJohnL said:
You miss the point. To a voter fed up with their usual Labour or Conservative representatives, those parties look the same -- the metropolitan elite, isolated by wealth and background from their traditional supporters from the factory floor or boardroom respectively. Many of them were even on the same course, PPE, at Oxford, for crying out loud. They even look the same -- they are about the same age, and as has been noted recently, they even dress the same (dark suit, or for the more casual look, dark blue jumper over a light blue shirt).foxinsoxuk said:
Would that be the UKIP party led by the Public School educated financier Nigel Farage? Who took over from the old Etonian Lord Rannoch as Leader? Whose two MPs are ex public school boys?DecrepitJohnL said:
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
There are alternative parties out there for those who dislike our public school elite, but UKIP are not plausibly amongst them!
And there are no substantial differences in policies -- Conservatives are not going to end immigration or bring back grammar schools. Labour will not nationalise the steelworks and shipyards. The rhetoric may be different but the policies are the same. Oh, there's been a recent kerfuffle over hidden plans to increase VAT or draw more people into higher rate bands, but if the plans are hidden, how can voters support them?
I'm no kipper and I suspect nor are most Ukip voters -- rather, they are NOTA. For the same reason, it doesn't matter if Green policies are impractical -- their voters already know they will never be enacted.0 -
The last iteration of Stewphen Fisher's model gave the Tories 79% probability of most seats.
Election forecast seems to do the same.
Nevertheless Ed Mili's correct price with the Fisher model was 2.38.
We'll see this week if the Conservative momentum can be maintained...0 -
What the hell is RIC ?Dair said:
Generations seem to have got a lot shorter.DavidL said:
The Indyref was truly exceptional. Thank goodness it was a once in a generation thing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.
Even there, though, the SNP attempts to make non voters into voters was not as successful as they hoped making the gap for No bigger than expected. And UKIP will never come close to matching the SNP ground operation that worked so hard on the non-voters.
It wasn't the SNP who were working on non-Voters that was predominantly a RIC operation.0 -
RIC?Dair said:
Generations seem to have got a lot shorter.DavidL said:
The Indyref was truly exceptional. Thank goodness it was a once in a generation thing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Indyref showed that DNVs can be turned into voters easily enough.DavidL said:I agree with the comments down thread about Cameron wanting to concentrate on the 32% but surely the most interesting thing about that pie chart is that 48.5% of Kippers DNV the last time.
Experienced polling companies such as ICM pretty much discount previous non voters because they tend to repeat the habit of not voting. [rest snipped]
A year or two back pb debated (or swapped insults -- my memory is hazy) which party had recruited the best American (pace Linton) election gurus to direct their social media campaigning and voter targeting.
Go to youtube and search for Labour or Conservative and you will see many very recent videos have been uploaded, and doubtless carefully targeted at different groups of voters whose attention will have been drawn to these videos by email, Facebook or Twitter, either directly or via known supporters.
Even there, though, the SNP attempts to make non voters into voters was not as successful as they hoped making the gap for No bigger than expected. And UKIP will never come close to matching the SNP ground operation that worked so hard on the non-voters.
It wasn't the SNP who were working on non-Voters that was predominantly a RIC operation.
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.0 -
Strange two years ago it was meant to be 99% Conservative absolute majority with SWINGBACK yet to come. Even our Rod Crosby said the same barely 6 months back.Pulpstar said:The last iteration of Stewphen Fisher's model gave the Tories 79% probability of most seats.
Election forecast seems to do the same.
Nevertheless Ed Mili's correct price with the Fisher model was 2.38.
We'll see this week if the Conservative momentum can be maintained...
Now, it is only 79% for "most seats" ? What is Fisher the joker up to ?0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.0 -
It does look like the phoney war between the Tories and Lib Dems is over and the real war has begun.
'Clegg says the Tories are awash with money and still won't win the election.'0 -
Well, it has been weird hasn't it? A sunny Easter weekend? Only under the tories. My memory of the Blair/Brown years was trying to roll eggs in sleet!surbiton said:
I don't think that is plausible. So there is a debate but we cannot talk about the government !What should they talk about then ? The weather ?Dair said:
The Telegraph article may, obviously, be unreliable given it is in a paper which doesn't fact check. It says that Cons and Lib Dems did not refuse an invite which was what I believed from other sources.DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
That means Tory and Lib Dem policy cannot be challenged. It also means when, for example, Sturgeon makes a statement such as "we are against Austerity unlike X", X can ONLY be Labour, not Labour, Lib Dem and Tories.
I'm not sure how comfortable that will be for Miliband.0 -
Farage will be generally ignored till he says something outrageous. Copy of first debate.Flightpath said:
Would it be in Sturgeon's interest to point that out in the debate? It would help Labour presumably, but how much does she want to help Labour? A Labour majority is no good to her.foxinsoxuk said:
Would that be the UKIP party led by the Public School educated financier Nigel Farage? Who took over from the old Etonian Lord Rannoch as Leader? Whose two MPs are ex public school boys?DecrepitJohnL said:
They share more than you say, especially when viewed from one of the NOTA parties. Conservative and Labour are dominated by ex-public school and Oxbridge types, not workers or small businesses. You ask, rhetorically, which policies are shared on immigration, tax, and grammar schools. The answer, surely, is that you could not fit a fag paper between their policies on any of these subjects.foxinsoxuk said:"The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON "
I think this really shows how little policy actually matters to many voters: what policies or ideas do these two parties share? Lots of immigrants or none? Lower taxes or higher ones? New grammar schools or none? Yet people switch between these two, then complain that politicians are duplicitous!
There are alternative parties out there for those who dislike our public school elite, but UKIP are not plausibly amongst them!
On the other hand does Miliband want to boast about going down the class warrior route? And he in turn does not want to weaken possible UKIP support to the benefit of tories?
Head exploding stuff.0 -
They may also have a clear notion of whether or not there is any prospect of their UKIP vote making a local Labour/Tory win more/less likely.DavidL said:
That is a good point. Many of that 32% will indeed be in very safe seats and make no difference to the result at all.surbiton said:In the past, many PBTories here wrote that since many of the UKIP strong areas were also true blue areas, then there will be very little effect on actual number of seats being lost.
The converse is also true. Reverting back to the Tories only buttresses the Tory majority.
I wonder we will now start reading all UKIP votes were in marginals,
Voters in safe seats (most of us!) should be immune to those arguments.0 -
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.0 -
They can talk about "the government". they can't talk about Tory policies or Lib Dem policies (which is the basis of the "more austerity" claim).surbiton said:
I don't think that is plausible. So there is a debate but we cannot talk about the government !What should they talk about then ? The weather ?Dair said:
The Telegraph article may, obviously, be unreliable given it is in a paper which doesn't fact check. It says that Cons and Lib Dems did not refuse an invite which was what I believed from other sources.DavidL said:Still not sure this is not a win win for Labour. Ed goes to ground to prepare for the debate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11518221/Labour-takes-gamble-as-Ed-Miliband-goes-to-ground-to-prepare-for-debate.html
I think Ed on the campaign trail is more of a risk as he has to interact with real people. OTOH he has shown himself to be reasonably competent at debates in a TV studio where things are much more controlled.
In the first week I think Tory campaigning definitely had the edge (mainly because of Labour's bizarre focus on business) but any sense of momentum has been dissipated by the Easter break. It will be interesting to see who is better able to pick up the baton this week.
That means Tory and Lib Dem policy cannot be challenged. It also means when, for example, Sturgeon makes a statement such as "we are against Austerity unlike X", X can ONLY be Labour, not Labour, Lib Dem and Tories.
I'm not sure how comfortable that will be for Miliband.
Those are the rules of purdah. If a party is not invited to a broadcast debate, the invited parties cannot discuss the policies of other parties which are not invited.
If they try, the chair will interrupt them. I suspect they will try, especially the two who cannot face any Sanction from the Electoral Commission but the chair will intervene.0 -
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.0 -
A growing economy usually leads to more jobs, but the instability of the EZ is a threat to the UK's economic prospects - an example of where politicians act first before thinking through the long term consequences. (e.g Tony Blair and Iraq).Innocent_Abroad said:
I don't really expect a poster who calls himself Financier to take this point, but what matters at least as much as the gross rate of economic expansion is its distribution between the top 1% and the rest of us.Financier said:Business lobby group, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), estimated that the UK's economy expanded by 0.7% in the three months to March, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter.
It also said growth would probably gather some momentum in the current quarter.
The main risk to the UK economy was related to ongoing eurozone worries and Greece's bailout package, it said.
CBI's monthly survey includes 764 private firms from a range of sectors.
It said businesses in the UK would also need to cope with a stronger pound, which was already weighing down weak export growth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32199958
Fine, get rid of the top 1% as you so obviously would like - let them go to other countries and develop their businesses and see what you have left. They do not have to stay in the UK to succeed. (This excludes those of the top 1% who work for the public sector).
The UK's cost structure is too high - even James Dyson could not manufacture profitably in the UK and so had to do it in the Far East.
You could go to the Communist set up - but even there I found that the top politicos reward themselves extremely well and forcibly remove any ladder for the rest of the population to join them.
0 -
Radical Independence Campaign. Predominantly hardcore left groupings. They were probably the largest group in terms of boots on the ground and nothing to do with the SNP (If they do vote SNP it will be through bared teeth).DavidL said:
RIC?
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.0 -
Yeah, but no one really cares about you! (All of them claim otherwise but they don't mean it).anotherDave said:
They may also have a clear notion of whether or not there is any prospect of their UKIP vote making a local Labour/Tory win more/less likely.DavidL said:
That is a good point. Many of that 32% will indeed be in very safe seats and make no difference to the result at all.surbiton said:In the past, many PBTories here wrote that since many of the UKIP strong areas were also true blue areas, then there will be very little effect on actual number of seats being lost.
The converse is also true. Reverting back to the Tories only buttresses the Tory majority.
I wonder we will now start reading all UKIP votes were in marginals,
Voters in safe seats (most of us!) should be immune to those arguments.0 -
Didn't his wife choose it for him? I think even those who went for Foot at the time admit they were pretty unfair to a decent man, even if they still justify it politically.Flightpath said:
True, reporting is shallow. But perceptions are strong.anotherDave said:
I find it odd that UK political reporting is so shallow. People actually get paid to come up with rubbish like that bacon sandwich fluff.Indigo said:
While perceptions of individuals matter, Mr Miliband being weird, Mr Cameron snobbish etc, I don't think it moves many votes.
It surprises me that we don't see articles examining policy differences between the parties. Evaluations of the consequences of those differences, and the consequences of the absence of difference.
On the Foot thing. Yes it was not a donkey jacket, but it looked like one and why would someone wear what looked like a donkey jacket at the cenotaph? Either you are stupid or could not care. Both pretty damning.
Unfortunately for Foot he also looked as if he did not know where he was. And thats before you looked at Labours manifesto.
Papers prefer reporting that way for two reasons - firstly it makes for better headlines 'Look, Ed's A Complete Idiot', is far more interesting than 'Ed's housing policy may be just about workable, but would require allocation of resources that would be better spent elsewhere, and would involve what we believe would be unacceptable intrusions on the free market'.
Secondly it gives them control - image making is now the major power the papers have. To use an obvious example - Cameron was yesterday pictured using a knife and fork to eat a hot dog, a far more egregious error than struggling with a bacon sarnie, something which I'm sure everyone's done over the years. However one picture is printed repeatedly, the other will likely disappear amid a blizzard of lamb photos. One's an idiot, one's a Prime Ministerial family man, despite both men being steeped in politics since their youth and probably being a tad weird, but perfectly intelligent reasonable human beings otherwise. Dare I say it, Cameron certainly doesn't look the youthful leader of 2005 but often pudgy, strangely troubled and washed out - if you wanted to you could depict him as Nixonian. Of course, if you've had the misfortune of browsing Mail Online you'll know that even Hollywood stars can be depicted as 'weird', 'depressed' or 'heartbroken' if you have a cameraman following them round all day and are willing to print whatever to justify the narrative you've decided upon for them.
If they evaluated the consequences of the differences between the parties, horror of horrors, people might make up their own minds, and we can't be having that.
0 -
Not in Dundee they weren't.Dair said:
Radical Independence Campaign. Predominantly hardcore left groupings. They were probably the largest group in terms of boots on the ground and nothing to do with the SNP (If they do vote SNP it will be through bared teeth).DavidL said:
RIC?
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.0 -
Elections are decided by stupid (or politically ignorant, and happy to remain so) voters, not intelligent ones.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
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Well there's a cheery thought for me to go to work on! But yes.Innocent_Abroad said:
Elections are decided by stupid (or politically ignorant, and happy to remain so) voters, not intelligent ones.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.0 -
Actually in Dundee that's who you were seeing (predominantly). RIC were massive in Dundee. But from their comments on activity, I doubt they went near the type of areas you reside inDavidL said:
Not in Dundee they weren't.Dair said:
Radical Independence Campaign. Predominantly hardcore left groupings. They were probably the largest group in terms of boots on the ground and nothing to do with the SNP (If they do vote SNP it will be through bared teeth).DavidL said:
RIC?
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.
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So the disreputable Tony Blair is now supporting the Labour Party...bodes well and smacks of desperation..half of the Labour Party detest him.0
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Mr. Brooke, does it?
PM asks people to vote for him in election isn't that ground-breaking in desperation terms.0 -
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.0 -
Morning all and for any of you interested, there is a Scottish leaders debate this evening on STV. I expect Nicola Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson to wipe the floor with Jim Murphy and Willie Rennie.0
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Burnham is all over the media this morning, so it looks like NHS and stats batted back and forth today anyway. Not sure there is any ground to be made on NHS especially with Burnham fronting the campaign.Pulpstar said:The last iteration of Stewphen Fisher's model gave the Tories 79% probability of most seats.
Election forecast seems to do the same.
Nevertheless Ed Mili's correct price with the Fisher model was 2.38.
We'll see this week if the Conservative momentum can be maintained...
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If he'd started earlier he would have risked the euronutters in his own party trying to push him to concessions. Safer now, though - I agree - less potential reward.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.
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And as I have said I was not canvassing in the areas I live in either.Dair said:
Actually in Dundee that's who you were seeing (predominantly). RIC were massive in Dundee. But from their comments on activity, I doubt they went near the type of areas you reside inDavidL said:
Not in Dundee they weren't.Dair said:
Radical Independence Campaign. Predominantly hardcore left groupings. They were probably the largest group in terms of boots on the ground and nothing to do with the SNP (If they do vote SNP it will be through bared teeth).DavidL said:
RIC?
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.
There were some left wing nutters for independence in the Town Centre from time to time and we did get wind of other groups who had been involved in getting people signed up on the register.
But the teams I saw out canvassing were all badged up SNP. As were the marches in the centre. As were the vans going around. As were the posters all over the place. As were the groups I met on the day working on GOTV. They are extremely well organised in Dundee and will walk my constituency of Dundee West as a result.0 -
It's where he's seeking the votes. The people he ignored for 5 years are suddenly meant to vote for him on the back of a scare story on Miliband. It doesn't seem to occur to him that many will see him as just as bad as Ed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, does it?
PM asks people to vote for him in election isn't that ground-breaking in desperation terms.0 -
Yet that can be turned around: some (although not all) Kippers on here take an inordinate joy in insulting the other parties, with the beraindead 'LibLabCom' meme and much worse.Indigo said:
I am aware of that, I was taking the p*ss out of TGOHF and Flightpath who have long held the view that insulting kippers was the way to get them to vote for the Conservative Partyfoxinsoxuk said:I think the fruitcakes comment is quite old, more than 5 years, and the ting tong comment was made by a UKIP MEP, not a Tory let alone Cameron himself.
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Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
22 minutes 22 seconds0 -
Nonsense on stilts. Most of the so called euronutters have already decamped to UKIP. What he is missing is about 6-8% of the electorate who are the more traditional Tory voters and who he has gone out of his way to alienate.Ishmael_X said:
If he'd started earlier he would have risked the euronutters in his own party trying to push him to concessions. Safer now, though - I agree - less potential reward.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.0 -
If you think he hasn't been saying that too you are not listening. So far as the right are concerned his calculation, as per Blair with the left, is that they have nowhere else to go and will choose the lesser of 2 evils. Standard politics.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.0 -
Gordon Brown spent the 2010 General Election visiting safe Labour party member filled venues. It looks as though Ed Miliband is doing exactly the same thing. Keeping clear of actual voters. Clearly worried he might come off 2nd best if confronted by little old grannies.0
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Watchable online outside Scotland on stv playerEasterross said:Morning all and for any of you interested, there is a Scottish leaders debate this evening on STV. I expect Nicola Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson to wipe the floor with Jim Murphy and Willie Rennie.
8 p.m.0 -
It's nice of Mr. Tony Blair to pop up again and remind the British public that Labour can't be trusted when it comes to the EU.0
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You had SNP badged campaigners? Never saw one in Glasgow, only Yes Scotland badged (I'm sure some of them had SNP lapel badges but never noticed any). RIC were mainly involved in the sign ups and used mass canvasses in areas they felt were "socially appropriate".DavidL said:
And as I have said I was not canvassing in the areas I live in either.Dair said:
Actually in Dundee that's who you were seeing (predominantly). RIC were massive in Dundee. But from their comments on activity, I doubt they went near the type of areas you reside inDavidL said:
Not in Dundee they weren't.Dair said:
Radical Independence Campaign. Predominantly hardcore left groupings. They were probably the largest group in terms of boots on the ground and nothing to do with the SNP (If they do vote SNP it will be through bared teeth).DavidL said:
RIC?
I can certainly confirm from my own experience that all of Better Together's efforts were focussed on areas with sub optimal turnout and no effort was wasted on Tory areas which were expected and did turn out all by themselves.
There were some left wing nutters for independence in the Town Centre from time to time and we did get wind of other groups who had been involved in getting people signed up on the register.
But the teams I saw out canvassing were all badged up SNP. As were the marches in the centre. As were the vans going around. As were the posters all over the place. As were the groups I met on the day working on GOTV. They are extremely well organised in Dundee and will walk my constituency of Dundee West as a result.
How effective this was is up to interpretation. RIC were most heavily involved in mass canvass sign ups in Glasgow and Dundee. They both have significantly lower turn outs than any other area of Scotland. that's indicative that it was successful in getting non-voters onto the register but a significant portion of them stayed as non-voters.0 -
Politely put, and complete rubbish. You think the tory party is largely free of euronutters?Alanbrooke said:
Nonsense on stilts. Most of the so called euronutters have already decamped to UKIP. What he is missing is about 6-8% of the electorate who are the more traditional Tory voters and who he has gone out of his way to alienate.Ishmael_X said:
If he'd started earlier he would have risked the euronutters in his own party trying to push him to concessions. Safer now, though - I agree - less potential reward.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.
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Mr. Brooke, some UKIP ex-Cons [ahem] do see him that way. Others don't.0
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DavidL said:
If you think he hasn't been saying that too you are not listening. So far as the right are concerned his calculation, as per Blair with the left, is that they have nowhere else to go and will choose the lesser of 2 evils. Standard politics.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.
Firstly what if I don't want to vote evil in the first place ? Even the lesser one ?
Secondly Blair's calculation was valid only for a time, the world has moved on and the inherent contempt for voters in Blair's statement has created the multi party politics we see to day with places to go on the left and the right. People created places to go.
Cameron's problem is he didn't embrace the politics of the broad tent, which is why he's about 6% short of the votes for a majority.0 -
more free than it has been for some time.Ishmael_X said:
Politely put, and complete rubbish. You think the tory party is largely free of euronutters?Alanbrooke said:
Nonsense on stilts. Most of the so called euronutters have already decamped to UKIP. What he is missing is about 6-8% of the electorate who are the more traditional Tory voters and who he has gone out of his way to alienate.Ishmael_X said:
If he'd started earlier he would have risked the euronutters in his own party trying to push him to concessions. Safer now, though - I agree - less potential reward.Alanbrooke said:
If he had half a brain he would have started getting the lost Tories back on board two years ago. This is simply too little too late.DavidL said:
Nonsense. It is boilerplate politics 101. Rally the anti Labour forces. Emphasise that this is about choosing a PM, not sending a message. Claim this is the most important choice ever. What do you expect him to say for goodness sake? It's an election.Alanbrooke said:
Cameron's latest wheeze just looks a bit desperate.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Worth noting Cameron's 'come home' daftness isn't a one-strong bow, as it were.
He's not only saying the rather obvious "if you're an ex-Tory, come back", he's also, more subtly, saying "if you're an ex-Labour voter, do stay where you are".
UKIP are not just SuperCons. They've taken a significant amount of support that may otherwise be Labour. That matters quite a bit.
And what do I expect him to say ? "Come on centrists give me your votes" since that's where he's been pitching his tent. Why the hell he thinks the right should come on board for him is just puzzling.0
