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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tori

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  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone have Labour seat 375 by odds or so ?

    c. Clywd West or MK North, both @ 10/1

    Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
    How about Labour 330-340 ?
    Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like

    Edinburgh East
    Milton Keynes South
    Stourbridge
    Cleethorpes
    Edinburgh West
    Watford
    Leeds North West
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Peterborough
    Ilford North
    Labour are ahead in Peterborough according to Yougov's widget thingy :O !
    I'm not really buying that widget. Interesting talking point, though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone have Labour seat 375 by odds or so ?

    c. Clywd West or MK North, both @ 10/1

    Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
    How about Labour 330-340 ?
    Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like

    Edinburgh East
    Milton Keynes South
    Stourbridge
    Cleethorpes
    Edinburgh West
    Watford
    Leeds North West
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Peterborough
    Ilford North
    Ilford North? Hurray, we get a mention!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone have Labour seat 375 by odds or so ?

    c. Clywd West or MK North, both @ 10/1

    Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
    How about Labour 330-340 ?
    Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like

    Edinburgh East
    Milton Keynes South
    Stourbridge
    Cleethorpes
    Edinburgh West
    Watford
    Leeds North West
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Peterborough
    Ilford North
    Labour are ahead in Peterborough according to Yougov's widget thingy :O !
    I'm not really buying that widget. Interesting talking point, though.
    It seems to correspond very well with what we know about Scotland mind...
  • New Thread
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited April 2015
    off-topic:

    This last Saturday (Apr 4th) The Times had a section "pet announcements" or somesuch and it was full of "to Tiddles, dearly missed, a loyal companion, I hope you are happy in cat heaven, died aged 16 yesterday" type things.

    Was this an April Fool? Apols if I missed it..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    NEW THREAD
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    This story, about a couple of enterprising residents of Carswell's Clacton constituency, reminds me of a question I meant to try to answer. How many of England's constituencies have a coastline?

    Does anyone know off-the-cuff?

    I don't know, but I do know that 101 of the 204 Ordnance Survey Landranger maps contain coastline. :-) I'd expect coastal constituencies to be much less than half the full total.

    But first you need to define coastline: for instance is it to estuary mouths, or do you include estuarine waters as well? According to the former Bermondsey would not be coastal; according to the latter it would.

    This might be of interest:
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Why are we measuring waiting time in A&E?

    Instead, shouldn't we be measuring:

    a) whether the right patients are getting priority in A&E, and

    b) the quality of the treatment provided in A&E?

    Who made the decision to set this waiting time target and how do they justify it?

    It was a new Labour target, but 98% to 95% was changed in 2010 by the coalition.

    We all want patients seen quickly, but if you look at graphs thefe are a lot of admissions as the 4 hour target approaches. Many are discharged later the same day from a "medical/surgical/paediatric assessment unit".

    I do wonder where Labours extra 8 000 GPs are coming from; to help solve this issue. Has Dr Martin been cloned?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Grandiose said:

    On another note I am astounded at Tory efforts to gain Colchester from "Sir Bob" Russell, including Theresa May and George Osborne visiting - potentially more soon. I once gave tim 8/1 (or was it 7/1) on a Conservative gain, haven't looked back since.

    Colchester was on the list of 'non target' Tory seats that got leaked in Feb. Maybe they've changed their mind

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KFnWl0aAr9TzOAhF7zSeMf0aRpQRyfLD7cRUQBBoUSA/edit#gid=0
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    JackW said:

    Dair said:

    JackW said:

    Update from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.

    Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.

    Huzzah for the Viscount.

    Viscounts - The backbone of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland. :innocent:
    The number and frequency of leafletting by Mr Sinclair seems to demonstrate desperation following poor private polling rather than anything worth a cheer.
    I know SNP wallas don't do detail but a point of fact is that John Thurso isn't a "Mr".

    On your more substantive point I have this odd thought that had Viscount Thurso not been undertaking a robust campaign you'd be indicating he'd given up.

    Clearly as a matter of consistency you'll also be of the opinion that the extensive SNP leafleting campaign in many seats is also a sign of "desperation" ??

    Is he a lady
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103

    Labour are at 48 to obtain an overall majority at Betfair.

    Madness, utter madness.

    To put that into context, with the traditional bookies, Labour are 50/1 to win Banbury, where the Tories are 1/100 favourites to win that seat.

    I'm not blind to a value punt even one that is completely opposed to who I want to win anything. But that price is not madness at all. I have money on the Conservatives winning a majority at 7/1 because they are the only party who can possibly win a majority. Labour has lost Scotland, isn't doing even close to well enough in key seats in England, and has a leader who is miles behind Cameron in favourable polling to be the next PM. They don't have a prayer of winning a majority thank god and the odds reflect that. But the terrifying prospect of them being propped up by the SNP is real. I think this coupled with Cameron's positive ratings with the electorate gives the Conservatives a very real chance of gaining a majority at this election, even if a hung parliament is the most likely outcome at this stage.
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103

    Labour are at 48 to obtain an overall majority at Betfair.

    Madness, utter madness.

    To put that into context, with the traditional bookies, Labour are 50/1 to win Banbury, where the Tories are 1/100 favourites to win that seat.

    I'm not blind to a value punt even one that is completely opposed to who I want to win anything. But that price is not madness at all. I have money on the Conservatives winning a majority at 7/1 because they are the only party who can possibly win a majority. Labour has lost Scotland, isn't doing even close to well enough in key seats in England, and has a leader who is miles behind Cameron in favourable polling to be the next PM. They don't have a prayer of winning a majority thank god and the odds reflect that. But the terrifying prospect of them being propped up by the SNP is real. I think this coupled with Cameron's positive ratings with the electorate gives the Conservatives a very real chance of gaining a majority at this election, even if a hung parliament is the most likely outcome at this stage.
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103

    Labour are at 48 to obtain an overall majority at Betfair.

    Madness, utter madness.

    To put that into context, with the traditional bookies, Labour are 50/1 to win Banbury, where the Tories are 1/100 favourites to win that seat.

    I'm not blind to a value punt even one that is completely opposed to who I want to win anything. But that price is not madness at all. I have money on the Conservatives winning a majority at 7/1 because they are the only party who can possibly win a majority. Labour has lost Scotland, isn't doing even close to well enough in key seats in England, and has a leader who is miles behind Cameron in favourable polling to be the next PM. They don't have a prayer of winning a majority thank god and the odds reflect that. But the terrifying prospect of them being propped up by the SNP is real. I think this coupled with Cameron's positive ratings with the electorate gives the Conservatives a very real chance of gaining a majority at this election, even if a hung parliament is the most likely outcome at this stage.
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