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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tori

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  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited April 2015
    NickPalmer,

    The problem that we have with these voters is on the issue of trust. Politicians keep on saying they will address the issue, or even reduce the levels of immigration, but then they never do. For the next election, the Conservatives have kept their immigration pledge, but the only step they have spelled out for achieving it is to limit some benefits. Labour have said they will reduce low skilled immigration, but they have not given any policies at all to get there. If we get Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, UKIP will be able to say in five years, "the Conservatives promised to reduce it and failed, Labour promised to reduce it and failed", and we will have just run out of arguments to respond.

    And we won't be able to say "UKIP is a wasted vote" if they are getting MPs elected and finish second across dozens of constituencies.

    Imagine the difference if we could turn around to voters at the next election and say "We've halved immigration, we're locking up criminals for longer, and we've got more and more people like you in parliament."
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Im getting opinion poll withdrawl symptoms..feels like ages since we had the last meningful one..
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Financier said:

    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:


    That a rather pejorative way of saying lots of people shouldn't come to this country with long term chronic conditions and expect the British public to foot the bill indefinitely. This again is uncontroversial in many liberal democracies, but for some reason the UK feels the need to run up bills. Chronic condition suffers are suffering all over the world, what we are doing is salving our conscience by paying to treat the visible people, while ignoring the other 99%, hardly a strong moral position.

    No - someone said on here that AIDS sufferers should be stigmatised.

    That's utterly wrong in my book, and was probably exactly what Farage wanted.
    UK is a real patsy , no other country in the world would accept people just turning up ill and give free treatment. No matter where you go you have to be able to prove you have insurance or pay up front etc. It is a disgrace that people here are being turned away for treatments due to lack of money and yet we will accept any Tom, Dick or Harry and do it for free.
    Malcolm - totally agree. We need to wake up and also charge people for self-inflicted illness like obesity and smoking.
    We already do charge people for smoking. The tobacco duty raises billions every year, far more than is needed for the relatively cheap cost of treating smoking related diseases. Those who cost the society far, far more than smokers, who die early, are lifelong non-smokers who live for a decade or two longer and are beset with diseases of extreme old age. How about we introduce a healthy living tax?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    "£1,600 for 18 and 19 year olds who don’t have an apprenticeship, go to college or university, to invest in themselves or start a business "

    "Business" ... lol.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    More epic Tory NHS mismanagement making itself apprent this morning:

    BREAKING: A&E waiting in England hits new worst level

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32202587

    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869
    Dair said:

    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
    What's the difference between this and a National Insurance number?

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    BenM said:

    More epic Tory NHS mismanagement making itself apprent this morning:

    BREAKING: A&E waiting in England hits new worst level

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32202587

    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.

    These targets are bolleaux. Outcomes are much more interesting.

    '99% were seen within 2 hours (But 80% died).'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    BenM said:

    MaxPB said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    NHS faces bigger than expected financial ‘black hole’
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/76570808-d7b9-11e4-849b-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3WbuV396r

    Damning.

    Full impact of epically disastrous Tory reorganisation being played out in the NHS.
    The NHS will always be a never ending money pit. It's time we had a proper national debate about health, what we want from it, and how it can be funded.

    Preferably without it being a political football.
    Keeping Tory mitts off the tillers of power helps. The mad bureaucracy they have created is a big part of the driver behind extra costs.
    Eh? The health select committee report said the changes have made the NHS slightly more efficient and less bureaucratic. It was a bipartisan report with Labour MPs in agreement. They then went on to suppress it realising the damage it would do so only a few parts of it have leaked and it can't be used officially in campaign material. Looking at the raw figures there are definitely fewer manager and bureaucrat positions open that there were a few years ago.

    I don't think the changes were worth the political capital the PM spent after promising no reorganisation but the evidence does at least indicate they are a net positive. Just like when a company restructures the initial cost is outweighed by the ongoing savings. A more efficient NHS will keep cost increases down and ensure that we continue to get good value for money.
    Health foundation research gets to the point:
    The research, carried out by the Health Foundation, an independent think-tank, shows that despite an inflation-protected budget, hospital productivity tumbled from 2012 as the NHS prepared for, then implemented, a contentious structural shake-up that stripped out layers of management and handed budget control to clinicians.
    So Lansley's monstrous Act reduced productivity - but not in a good way, where more inputs push up outcomes over the medium term as happened under Labour.

    No, the Tories manage to divert resources instead into maintaining their idiotic internal market rather than treating patients.

    As Health Promotion, including campaigns to, for example, reduce teenage pregnancy, have been transferred to Local Authorities I’m not surprised that the number of managers AKA “bureaucrats” in the NHS has been reduced.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Deja vu? telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11518984/Natalie-Bennett-suffers-car-crash-interview-on-BBC-Radio-4-Today-programme.html
    Natalie Bennett suffers car crash interview on BBC Radio 4 Today programme
    Green Party leader's interview ends with presenter John Humphry calling her Caroline Lucas, while she fails to recognise her own party's manifesto policies
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Blair starts by making the best Conservative pitch I've heard in ages, describing their referendum pledge.

    They says it would be the first time since joining that exit is on the agenda, which shows impressively poor recall of past Labour referenda.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    BenM said:

    More epic Tory NHS mismanagement making itself apprent this morning:

    BREAKING: A&E waiting in England hits new worst level

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32202587

    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.

    If you look REALLY closely, for a very long time, you might see someone change their vote, but I wouldn't bank on it. BBC weaponising the NHS for Miliband again, he is certainly getting good value out of that "secret" meeting with the BBC directors before Christmas.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
    What's the difference between this and a National Insurance number?

    None, either one would be fine, although NI you don't get till 16 while the NHS number is there from birth.

    But it's badly needed.

    I could easily see £100bn being wiped out the deficit without the widescale fraud and failure which infests public services.

    How many Fabricated Children are being claimed for in this country? We know of the woman who got too greedy and was claiing for either 14 or 16. But how many claiming for 1 or 2.

    How much is non-entitled health care really costing. We don't actually known. Farage figure was made up but it would be interesting to know what the real figure is.

    How many people tick the box on the back of their prescription even though they should be paying? I know I did the couple of times I needed a prescription when there was charges. No wonder its 80%+ not being charged.

    How many State Pensions are being paid to the dead?

    There's going to be hundreds of things like these examples. Some small, some huge. And there is nothing being done to stop it and no idea of the extent of it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BenM said:



    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.

    So you concede Labour's record in Wales will be worse?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    I think the fruitcakes comment is quite old, more than 5 years, and the ting tong comment was made by a UKIP MEP, not a Tory let alone Cameron himself.

    I am aware of that, I was taking the p*ss out of TGOHF and Flightpath who have long held the view that insulting kippers was the way to get them to vote for the Conservative Party :p

    I'm not taking it personally Indigo - they laughed when "Peak Kipper" was observed in October - not sure they will laugh if Ed wins the election thanks to Kipper spoiler tactics - no referendum and 3 MPs - what a waste of time and effort.
    They also laughed when it was observed every other month you claimed it
    Well - Sunil's elbow has the ski slope evidence - the polls are pretty clear.



    Down about a point?

    I'm not disagreeing that Ukip aren't as high as they were, just chuckling that you genuinely think you called it
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585152029879836673

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    I think the fruitcakes comment is quite old, more than 5 years, and the ting tong comment was made by a UKIP MEP, not a Tory let alone Cameron himself.

    I am aware of that, I was taking the p*ss out of TGOHF and Flightpath who have long held the view that insulting kippers was the way to get them to vote for the Conservative Party :p

    I'm not taking it personally Indigo - they laughed when "Peak Kipper" was observed in October - not sure they will laugh if Ed wins the election thanks to Kipper spoiler tactics - no referendum and 3 MPs - what a waste of time and effort.
    They also laughed when it was observed every other month you claimed it
    Well - Sunil's elbow has the ski slope evidence - the polls are pretty clear.



    Down about a point?

    I'm not disagreeing that Ukip aren't as high as they were, just chuckling that you genuinely think you called it
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585152029879836673

    The by elections obviously boosted Ukips prominence in the media but that aside there's no big difference, excep Ukip are higher now than pre Carswell

    But you didn't call any of it until after if had happened so pls don't kid yourself you did
  • I wonder how many of the 48.5% who didn't vote last time will also not vote again this time...perhaps they represent those irritating types who sit in your local bemoaning the system yet do nothing about changing it when given the opportunity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Model alert !

    Electoral calculus has moved from Strong Transition to Shaped Strong Transition.

    This will ditch some of the anomolies like UKIP gaining Orkney.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
    What's the difference between this and a National Insurance number?

    None, either one would be fine, although NI you don't get till 16 while the NHS number is there from birth.

    But it's badly needed.

    I could easily see £100bn being wiped out the deficit without the widescale fraud and failure which infests public services.

    How many Fabricated Children are being claimed for in this country? We know of the woman who got too greedy and was claiing for either 14 or 16. But how many claiming for 1 or 2.

    How much is non-entitled health care really costing. We don't actually known. Farage figure was made up but it would be interesting to know what the real figure is.

    How many people tick the box on the back of their prescription even though they should be paying? I know I did the couple of times I needed a prescription when there was charges. No wonder its 80%+ not being charged.

    How many State Pensions are being paid to the dead?

    There's going to be hundreds of things like these examples. Some small, some huge. And there is nothing being done to stop it and no idea of the extent of it.
    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    @RupertMyers: Ed Miliband’s top policy adviser has attacked Tony Blair’s “dystopian sink or swim” politics http://t.co/1WdKSeMp8l #awkward

    E by gum lad .... They're talking of little else than Blair's "dystopian politics" down the Wheel Tappers & Shunters Social Club.

    I know - its driven the neo endogenous growth theory fans into the Snug.....
    Titter ... :smile:

    Must be proper posh round your way to have a dedicated snug. Round here that's the gents lavvy.

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Dair said:

    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
    Morning Dire,

    ID cards/other will come into usage at some time in the future, however in the meantime, there are many people in Scotland who are highly suspicious of the SNP's centralisation process.

    We have seen the centralisation of Police (which has not been the success that we were promised), the Courts and legal services (now in danger of collapse), the Children Guardians from 7 months from conception to 18 years, etc.. Now you want to allow the SNP to have a record of every body in Scotland.

    How people vote won't be a problem in a 1 party state, but what will happen if the party apparatchiks decide that a person is thinking something different to the party line? Your party has gagged it's MSP's, will also gag any SNP body unlucky to be elected to Westminster (although to be fair, no one will be able to stop AS from saying and doing what he wants as it is the will of the Scottish People that he does so, and neither Nicola or Peter will be down there to stop him)
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Brilliant Blair selfie on Order Order
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Pulpstar said:

    "£1,600 for 18 and 19 year olds who don’t have an apprenticeship, go to college or university, to invest in themselves or start a business "

    "Business" ... lol.

    Those PS4 and X-Boxes don't buy themselves you know..
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I can't precisely reproduce Mike's figures from the Ashcroft tables, but it's worth pointing out that, across these marginals, about 22% of the UKIP poll share voted UKIP in 2010 (2.9/13), and if we were to assume that 100% of 2010 BNP and English Democrat voters will vote UKIP in 2015, then they would represent another 15% of 2015 UKIP voters.

    This reduces the proportion who did not vote in 2010 to 11-12%, which puts a slightly different complexion on the chart in the header.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited April 2015
    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    When will those opposed to a EU Referendum stop saying it is Cameron's choice..it isn't..it will be the choice of the entire UK population... Cameron only has one vote.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    LibDems gain Thanet South. :sunglasses:

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Dair said:

    franklyn said:

    It is financially very difficult to sustain;my own grandparents came to the UK (prior to the 1905 Aliens Act) having left poverty and persecution. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think that we should hide from the debate

    Until UK Citizens are willing to accept a central identification number to access Social Services (including Health Care) there's not going to be any change to the cost of migrant services.

    But as with anything else, sensible policy gets enveloped in hysterical political nonsense. In Scotland, the SNP plan to use individuals NHS ID Number as their passport to services but have all other parties screaming "ID Cards, ID Cards".

    Politicians are determined to stop sensible politics. The SNP have the core pro-Indy support to let them get controversial stuff through, the UK government has nothing.
    Morning Dire,

    ID cards/other will come into usage at some time in the future, however in the meantime, there are many people in Scotland who are highly suspicious of the SNP's centralisation process.

    We have seen the centralisation of Police (which has not been the success that we were promised), the Courts and legal services (now in danger of collapse), the Children Guardians from 7 months from conception to 18 years, etc.. Now you want to allow the SNP to have a record of every body in Scotland.
    Yep great argument there. Don't bother clamping down on fraud in public services because you don't want cheaper policing and reduced kiddy fiddling...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    The LDs would have been +5 if Ed Davey had taken that mallet to Nick Clegg yesterday.

    Still a month to go, and only 3 or 4 issues to recycle in the campaign. Still, those lambs were cute.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Indigo said:

    BenM said:

    More epic Tory NHS mismanagement making itself apprent this morning:

    BREAKING: A&E waiting in England hits new worst level

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32202587

    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.

    If you look REALLY closely, for a very long time, you might see someone change their vote, but I wouldn't bank on it. BBC weaponising the NHS for Miliband again, he is certainly getting good value out of that "secret" meeting with the BBC directors before Christmas.
    All Tory-run BBC propaganda, or is there the outside chance that anyone who's had a bad experience will already know (and told their family and friends)?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    Its just a cosmetic difference. As soon as you have that number it will inevitably become the primary index for any government service, new driving licenses will rapid become issued with that number of them, followed by passports. Banks and insurance companies will require the number if you want to do business with them and will be indexed using it, very rapidly all sorts of disparate systems will become quietly linked up, in a away which will not be universally good for civil liberties.
  • @TSEofPB: Bloody hell. @YouGov are quick in getting their polls out. http://t.co/IDb0z8RuLw
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Would only be 9% Lib Dem without a huge Scottish vote for them.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    Indigo said:

    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    Its just a cosmetic difference. As soon as you have that number it will inevitably become the primary index for any government service, new driving licenses will rapid become issued with that number of them, followed by passports. Banks and insurance companies will require the number if you want to do business with them and will be indexed using it, very rapidly all sorts of disparate systems will become quietly linked up, in a away which will not be universally good for civil liberties.
    I do understand your argument and I personally never ever want to be in the position where I have to carry an ID. It is a fundamental right not to need to.

    But what I proposed, a number you use as a passport for services without the need for a card is the only option. I do not believe there is any other solution to reducing the massive (and uncommented by the media) scale of public services fraud. If you have an alternative, please, let's hear it. But all those fabricated children, dead pensioners, migrant health beneficiaries, etc., etc. are not going to go away on their own.
  • Phone polled by MQR this morning. Basic questions about certainty to vote, who voted for 2010, last Euros, and intentions for 2015.
    Question about who would make the best PM, Cameron / Milliband.
    Asked the interviewer, and they said the polling was nationwide, not just Broxtowe.
  • @wallaceme: Photo of David Cameron with lizards. I imagine quite a lot of klaxons are currently going off at @DavidIcke's house http://t.co/jyFGlt9vc6
  • And, on topic, MQR were also asking a specific question about on a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you agree that a vote for UKIP will help Milliband form the next government together with the SNP?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Dair said:

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Would only be 9% Lib Dem without a huge Scottish vote for them.
    Haha yes Lib Dems on 11% in Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    And, on topic, MQR were also asking a specific question about on a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you agree that a vote for UKIP will help Milliband form the next government together with the SNP?

    Zero :) ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    What Blunkett may have wanted in private is something neither of us can know but his proposal was for and "entitlement card" that would enable people to access public services and aimed specifically at clamping down on fraud.

    A system that relied on just a name and a number provided verbally by the person at the time of access would be effective - how would the provider know that the person was who they claimed, for a start?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Would only be 9% Lib Dem without a huge Scottish vote for them.
    Haha yes Lib Dems on 11% in Scotland.
    SNP on 45%.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Indigo said:

    BenM said:

    More epic Tory NHS mismanagement making itself apprent this morning:

    BREAKING: A&E waiting in England hits new worst level

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32202587

    In England. No amount of Tory Wales whataboutery can hide this disaster.

    If you look REALLY closely, for a very long time, you might see someone change their vote, but I wouldn't bank on it. BBC weaponising the NHS for Miliband again, he is certainly getting good value out of that "secret" meeting with the BBC directors before Christmas.
    The NHS England is treating 15% more admissions in 2014 than in 2010 with more front line staff and fewer administrators.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Predictions that the 2 main parties will break 70% seem a little optimistic at the moment.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Dair said:

    Indigo said:

    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    Its just a cosmetic difference. As soon as you have that number it will inevitably become the primary index for any government service, new driving licenses will rapid become issued with that number of them, followed by passports. Banks and insurance companies will require the number if you want to do business with them and will be indexed using it, very rapidly all sorts of disparate systems will become quietly linked up, in a away which will not be universally good for civil liberties.
    I do understand your argument and I personally never ever want to be in the position where I have to carry an ID. It is a fundamental right not to need to.

    But what I proposed, a number you use as a passport for services without the need for a card is the only option. I do not believe there is any other solution to reducing the massive (and uncommented by the media) scale of public services fraud. If you have an alternative, please, let's hear it. But all those fabricated children, dead pensioners, migrant health beneficiaries, etc., etc. are not going to go away on their own.
    I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.

    Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    FalseFlag said:

    Indigo said:


    That a rather pejorative way of saying lots of people shouldn't come to this country with long term chronic conditions and expect the British public to foot the bill indefinitely. This again is uncontroversial in many liberal democracies, but for some reason the UK feels the need to run up bills. Chronic condition suffers are suffering all over the world, what we are doing is salving our conscience by paying to treat the visible people, while ignoring the other 99%, hardly a strong moral position.

    No - someone said on here that AIDS sufferers should be stigmatised.

    That's utterly wrong in my book, and was probably exactly what Farage wanted.
    They should be, lifestyle disease. It the disgusting attitudes of people like you that resulted in thousands of deaths of innocent people from infected blood transfusions.
    "Lifestyle disease."

    Yeah, right. Obviously the people who got it through the very infected blood transmission you mention deserve stigmatising because it is a 'lifestyle disease'.

    FFS.

    And I'm not sure how the 'disgusting attitudes' of people like me led to the deaths of thousands of innocent people, especially as I could well have been one of them ...
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    with both sky news and BBC websites both headling labour attacks on tories, where are the tory attack dogs to fight back, why are they left unchallenged by the tories, what are CCHQ doing to respond, you sometimes wonder if they just want to lose this election
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    What Blunkett may have wanted in private is something neither of us can know but his proposal was for and "entitlement card" that would enable people to access public services and aimed specifically at clamping down on fraud.

    A system that relied on just a name and a number provided verbally by the person at the time of access would be effective - how would the provider know that the person was who they claimed, for a start?
    The process I'd expect to be followed is for the applicant for services to give their Number and name, the registrar to pull up their national services record and ask the individual to confirm DoB. As secure as it is likely to need to be.

    If you have an alternative, feel free to put forward your choice. If you're alternative is ID cards, fair enough. Just not one I'd support.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    5-1 ?!

    I'd want 500-1 lol.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    If Cameron's not PM, he's not leader, as simple as that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If Cameron's not PM, he's not leader, as simple as that.

    Surely that depends on when the second election is...

    "innocent face"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    If Cameron's not PM, he's not leader, as simple as that.
    Mug punt of mug year tbh that one.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Indigo said:


    I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.

    Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!

    Which is exactly what the Scottish Government are proposing, a single central database all public bodies can use if there is a genuine need and never open to private companies and other safeguards.

    But all they get at FMQs is "ID Cards, ID Cards, ID Cards, SNP Bad, ID Cards".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    The betting is quite straightforward here - if you put £20 on this 5-1 bet, you'll lose £20.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Scott_P said:

    If Cameron's not PM, he's not leader, as simple as that.

    Surely that depends on when the second election is...

    "innocent face"
    More than enough time if needed between May and Dec for a second election. If it's needed then it'll be in most peoples interest to have it.
  • Taking everything into account, how good or bad an election campaign do you think the following have had so far?

    Net Good

    Conservatives +15

    Lab +4

    LibDems -36

    UKIP -12

    Greens -20

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hoqe8zgq9h/InternalResults_150401_election_campaigns_Website.pdf
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    The Conservative to Labour swing in that poll, from 2010, is made up of the following four parts:

    Traditional direct swing voters +20%
    Differential support won from Liberal Democrats +29%
    Differential support lost to UKIP +58%
    Differential support lost to Greens -7%

    So, although my instinct is to agree with Mike - UKIP voters clearly aren't all Tories on holiday - I think he is looking at the polling from the wrong end. Cameron doesn't care that much how many votes UKIP receives. All he cares about is that his party doesn't lose more votes to UKIP than Labour.

    At the moment - according to Populus - they are, in a very big way, accounting for more than half of the net Conservative to Labour swing form the 2010 GE.
  • Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Time for latest & greatest prediction :)

    CON 280
    LAB 270
    LIB 24
    SNP 49
    PC 3
    UKIP 4
    (NI 18)
    Green 1
    Respect 1


    Seats to watch:

    Dumfries & Galloway: Likely SNP Gain
    Hallam: TCTC
    Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
    Caithness - SNP Gain
    Pudsey: TCTC (Con Hold, just)
    Reading West: Likely Con Hold
    Sherwood: Lab Gain
    Southampton Itchen: Likely Lab Hold
    Thurrock: Likely UKIP Gain
    Thanet South: TCTC (UKIP Gain, just)
    Torbay - Likely Lib Dem Hold
    Glasgow East - SNP Gain

    UKIP Seats: Rochester; Clacton; Thanet; Thurrock

    Lab Minority
    Confidence & Supply from the SNP and PC and SDLP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Dair said:

    Indigo said:


    I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.

    Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!

    Which is exactly what the Scottish Government are proposing, a single central database all public bodies can use if there is a genuine need and never open to private companies and other safeguards.
    Lol. Whatever they've got, they'll use. As we saw with surveillance, insiders will run rings around whatever "safeguards" you put in place to get the legislation through.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Pulpstar said:

    Time for latest & greatest prediction :)

    CON 280
    LAB 270
    LIB 24
    SNP 49
    PC 3
    UKIP 4
    (NI 18)
    Green 1
    Respect 1


    Seats to watch:

    Dumfries & Galloway: Likely SNP Gain
    Hallam: TCTC
    Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
    Caithness - SNP Gain
    Pudsey: TCTC (Con Hold, just)
    Reading West: Likely Con Hold
    Sherwood: Lab Gain
    Southampton Itchen: Likely Lab Hold
    Thurrock: Likely UKIP Gain
    Thanet South: TCTC (UKIP Gain, just)
    Torbay - Likely Lib Dem Hold
    Glasgow East - SNP Gain

    UKIP Seats: Rochester; Clacton; Thanet; Thurrock

    Lab Minority
    Confidence & Supply from the SNP and PC and SDLP.

    2nd election needed on those seat numbers.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Dair said:

    Indigo said:


    I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.

    Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!

    Which is exactly what the Scottish Government are proposing, a single central database all public bodies can use if there is a genuine need and never open to private companies and other safeguards.

    But all they get at FMQs is "ID Cards, ID Cards, ID Cards, SNP Bad, ID Cards".
    The SNP doesn't exactly help itself with this recent nonsense about not allowing members to be critical of the party, and permitting Police Scotland to get involved in all sorts of illiberal practises regarding free speech. If organisations behave in an illiberal way, and permit others they are placed over to behave in an illiberal way, you cant exactly blame the public and others from believing it will use these sort of laws in an illiberal way as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    Sounds like a disgruntled councillor to me.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/claims-snp-played-fast-and-loose-with-glasgow-selection-are-denied-195642n.117075752

    There do seem to be, and I have noticed this from all parties quite a few people involved in the minor echelons of local Government who will change sides at the slightest hint of ego bruising.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The figures that I have calculated below, for today's Populus, may vary with different pollsters. Using the Ashcroft tables for the seven Tory/Labour marginals that Mike uses for this thread, we get the following proportions contributing to the Conservative-Labour swing:

    Direct +16%
    Liberals +41%
    Kippers +50%
    Greens -7%

    The differential loss of support to UKIP is still the largest single source of the present Conservative to Labour swing.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Dair said:

    Dair said:


    Mr. Dair, as I recall David Blunkett proposed an "entitlement card" for just the same purpose. It would be more secure than just using a number as that is obviously open to abuse and fraud. The entitlement card would have to be backed by a central database against which it could be checked and there would have to be a process of registration and a requirement for keeping the details up to date.

    Blunkett wanted an ID Card, it was far broader in scope than access to services. Stick to just having a central database and number. No need for a card/ID. It would be secure enough to eliminate most of the fraud, cross referenced to name is all it needs to do to achieve this.
    What Blunkett may have wanted in private is something neither of us can know but his proposal was for and "entitlement card" that would enable people to access public services and aimed specifically at clamping down on fraud.

    A system that relied on just a name and a number provided verbally by the person at the time of access would be effective - how would the provider know that the person was who they claimed, for a start?
    The process I'd expect to be followed is for the applicant for services to give their Number and name, the registrar to pull up their national services record and ask the individual to confirm DoB. As secure as it is likely to need to be.

    If you have an alternative, feel free to put forward your choice. If you're alternative is ID cards, fair enough. Just not one I'd support.
    If you want to seriously cut down on fraud then there are three elements that have to be considered. Firstly, you have to make sure that the only people on the database are those that have a right to access the services. Secondly, that the person trying to access the service is who they say they are and thirdly, the method of checking and recording the transaction is secure. The only way to address all three is the ID card system brought forward by the last government.

    Whether the diminution of fraud is worth the cost in cash and in terms of reduction of civil liberties is a matter of personal judgement. I don't think it is but others will disagree.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Tories not on 37% in this poll either.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966


    Whether the diminution of fraud is worth the cost in cash and in terms of reduction of civil liberties is a matter of personal judgement. I don't think it is but others will disagree.

    I think the saving in cash should be quantified by in independent study so that the public and their representatives can make an informed judgement, personally I would be very surprised if the savings were not in the £10+bn per year area.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    Sounds like a disgruntled councillor to me.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/claims-snp-played-fast-and-loose-with-glasgow-selection-are-denied-195642n.117075752

    There do seem to be, and I have noticed this from all parties quite a few people involved in the minor echelons of local Government who will change sides at the slightest hint of ego bruising.
    Yeah is a common trait of local government politics.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited April 2015
    It should be an interesting debate between Murphy and Sturgeon. If he gets his tactics right Murphy has a huge advantage. Labour can effect change. The SNP can do very little at Westminster. What he has to do is find one or two themes hopefully well researched and ignore all the nickel and dime arguments that aren't relevant to this election which Nicola will try to use to cloud the water.

    Having said that I'm not sure Murphy has the political acumen to find the net even under these circumstances.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Update from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.

    Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Roger said:

    It should be an interesting debate between Murphy and Sturgeon. If he gets his tactics right Murphy has a huge advantage. Labour can effect change. The SNP can do very little at Westminster. What he has to do is find one or two themes hopefully well researched and ignore all the nickel and dime arguments that aren't relevant to this election which Nicola will try to use to cloud the water.

    Having said that I'm not sure Murphy has the political acumen to find the net even under these circumstances.

    I think if Salmond was in the hotseat here I could see Murphy winning, but Sturgeon is alot better.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.

    'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'

    http://tinyurl.com/n3vst9j

    Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Update from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.

    Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.

    Good to hear Labour aren't putting in any effort, I'm fully expecting an SNP win here but it's marginally better for me if the Lib Dems do it. Have a hole I'm not going to fill on Labour.
  • Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.

    'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'

    http://tinyurl.com/n3vst9j

    Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
    He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Roger said:

    It should be an interesting debate between Murphy and Sturgeon. If he gets his tactics right Murphy has a huge advantage. Labour can effect change. The SNP can do very little at Westminster. What he has to do is find one or two themes hopefully well researched and ignore all the nickel and dime arguments that aren't relevant to this election which Nicola will try to use to cloud the water.

    Having said that I'm not sure Murphy has the political acumen to find the net even under these circumstances.

    I disagree. The SNP will naturally push labour more leftward than labour would go by themselves, so why not vote SNP?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    BenM said:

    Lib Dem surge, they hit double digits with another pollster.

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 4 (-1), Others 7 (+2) Tables here: http://t.co/wn9vlGBwcu

    Tories not on 37% in this poll either.
    Tories higher than Labour.

    Who cares how many percent it is anyway, its seats that matter. That 7+% the Tories need to win that OGH and others continually trot out assumes a uniform swing, and was the case before the SNP surge and the kippers. None of us have much of a real clue what is going to happen this time, the Tory vote could have become dramatically more efficient because of the kippers, or they could lose a load of marginal seats because of the kippers "stealing" a couple of thousand votes, who knows ;)

    There are about 25 Labour and Conservative target seats that have a majority that falls within the Margin of Error of almost all the polls we see.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Indigo said:


    Whether the diminution of fraud is worth the cost in cash and in terms of reduction of civil liberties is a matter of personal judgement. I don't think it is but others will disagree.

    I think the saving in cash should be quantified by in independent study so that the public and their representatives can make an informed judgement, personally I would be very surprised if the savings were not in the £10+bn per year area.
    £10bn? We are only talking about Scotland here, aren't we. That sounds jolly high, especially for such a flawed fraud prevention system. However, an independent study should be able to put forward some reasonable estimate of the costs and savings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Glasgow Central is certainly a seat I wouldn't put the house on either way at this election !
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Indigo said:

    Dair said:

    Indigo said:


    I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.

    Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!

    Which is exactly what the Scottish Government are proposing, a single central database all public bodies can use if there is a genuine need and never open to private companies and other safeguards.

    But all they get at FMQs is "ID Cards, ID Cards, ID Cards, SNP Bad, ID Cards".
    The SNP doesn't exactly help itself with this recent nonsense about not allowing members to be critical of the party, and permitting Police Scotland to get involved in all sorts of illiberal practises regarding free speech. If organisations behave in an illiberal way, and permit others they are placed over to behave in an illiberal way, you cant exactly blame the public and others from believing it will use these sort of laws in an illiberal way as well.
    That really depends on your political point of view. The SNP aren't standing on a Libertarian social platform. One of their first acts as a government was to crack down on Knife Crime with the pretty blunt instrument of Stop and Search. It has, as I understand it, been very successful. They're not making any secret that they will use fairly blunt instruments. Even the Sectarian Behaviour at Football Act is remarkably popular.

    No-one is being forced to register on the database. It is only as part of the Social Contract if you want to access public services. This does not seem particularly unfair and is definitely not at odds with the electoral offer that the SNP make.

    It always surprises me that the UK doesn;t have an equivalent to the US Social Security Number** and how it could possibly operate public services without one. Then I consider the scale of fraud and realise that it can't and doesn't.

    ** Which, BTW, is far more extensive than what's proposed here and IS accessible and used by private companies.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Roger said:

    It should be an interesting debate between Murphy and Sturgeon. If he gets his tactics right Murphy has a huge advantage. Labour can effect change. The SNP can do very little at Westminster. What he has to do is find one or two themes hopefully well researched and ignore all the nickel and dime arguments that aren't relevant to this election which Nicola will try to use to cloud the water.

    Having said that I'm not sure Murphy has the political acumen to find the net even under these circumstances.

    Labour need to ditch this vote SNP get Tory stuff. It's just relentlessly negative. Murphy needs to point out that Miliband offers a true social democratic platform distinct from new labour. Whether he's the man to do that, I'm not sure. I thought it was very interesting to see how badly his Mansion tax for Scottish nurses went down on the Scottish QT recently.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    The betting is quite straightforward here - if you put £20 on this 5-1 bet, you'll lose £20.
    Lol!

    That has to be the worst 5/1shot I've ever seen.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    Sounds like a disgruntled councillor to me.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/claims-snp-played-fast-and-loose-with-glasgow-selection-are-denied-195642n.117075752

    There do seem to be, and I have noticed this from all parties quite a few people involved in the minor echelons of local Government who will change sides at the slightest hint of ego bruising.
    He's never held office or been more than an ordinary member of the SNP.

    The fact of which didn't stop the DayLate Record calling him an "SNP Boss" on their front page splash.

    Much to the delight of twitter #SNPBoss
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm amazed Tony is back in Sedgefield in an action replay of when he came out of his tanning booth for Gordon. It's creepy - but at least he doesn't look like a wizened orange with a mid-pond accent.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Indigo said:


    Whether the diminution of fraud is worth the cost in cash and in terms of reduction of civil liberties is a matter of personal judgement. I don't think it is but others will disagree.

    I think the saving in cash should be quantified by in independent study so that the public and their representatives can make an informed judgement, personally I would be very surprised if the savings were not in the £10+bn per year area.
    Which might be very very hard.

    It also has a huge knock on effect. How would social attitudes change if, for example, it was shown that the left wing claim of "1 million UK Children live in poverty" was debunked because 500,000 of those children did not actually exist.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Labour working hard to keep the press on side
    https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/585385364510085122
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: We make it 5/1 for Cameron to be Tory leader but not PM on December 31st, 2015. 8/13 he is PM after #GE2015

    The betting is quite straightforward here - if you put £20 on this 5-1 bet, you'll lose £20.
    Lol!

    That has to be the worst 5/1shot I've ever seen.
    Paddy Power trying to convince me at 4/1 that tying up my money until 2034 on the date of the next Indyref is another contender.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited April 2015
    The optics are bad for Labour.

    On the day Dave is asking Con to UKIP switchers to come back, Labour have put Blair front and centre reminding them that Cameron is offering them a referendum and Ed isn't
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:


    That a rather pejorative way of saying lots of people shouldn't come to this country with long term chronic conditions and expect the British public to foot the bill indefinitely. This again is uncontroversial in many liberal democracies, but for some reason the UK feels the need to run up bills. Chronic condition suffers are suffering all over the world, what we are doing is salving our conscience by paying to treat the visible people, while ignoring the other 99%, hardly a strong moral position.

    No - someone said on here that AIDS sufferers should be stigmatised.

    That's utterly wrong in my book, and was probably exactly what Farage wanted.
    UK is a real patsy , no other country in the world would accept people just turning up ill and give free treatment. No matter where you go you have to be able to prove you have insurance or pay up front etc. It is a disgrace that people here are being turned away for treatments due to lack of money and yet we will accept any Tom, Dick or Harry and do it for free.
    Careful, the most devloped countries' "health insurance" schemes aren't really insurance - you pay the same regardless of how sick you get or how sick you're likely to get, it's usually compulsory to be signed up, and the amount you pay usually depends on your income. Functionally this isn't much different from paying out of taxes like in the UK, especially from the point of view of a sick person: You show up, start paying the same as a healthy person, and immediately start getting treatment.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Pulpstar

    You are demonstrating a lack of knowledge of Scottish political history. We have had TV debates in Scotland for many many years.

    Over the years Salmond debated with the best - Dewar, Robertson, Riffkind, Brown, Darling and in Parliament Thatcher, Blair, Hague etc. In addition there are the the lighterweights like McConnell, Grey etc etc. Salmond was judged to have won every big debate with the sole exception of the first referendum debate against Darling which he comprehensively turned around in the second.

    Murphy is at best in the make weight class of these names. Salmond would have taken him to the cleaners as I suspect Sturgeon will as well albeit with a totally different style.

    There are good reasons why Murphy is failing so badly to dent the SNP lead and has such appalling popularity ratings for a relatively new leader.



  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    The optics are bad for Labour.

    On the day Dave is asking Con to UKIP switchers to come back, Labour have put Blair front and centre reminding them that Cameron is offering them a referendum and Ed isn't

    Blair, stranger to the truth, and a dud as Middle East peacemaker. (Let's not mention how he's making his £millions).

    The last person Labour need as a cheerleader.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Update from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.

    Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.

    Huzzah for the Viscount.

    Viscounts - The backbone of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland. :innocent:



  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Sporting Index has just moved Lab up one seat. Con unchanged.

    Con 284-288
    Lab 269-273
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Easterross

    Is that eight communications during the official campaign start a few weeks back ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.

    'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'

    http://tinyurl.com/n3vst9j

    Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
    He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
    A double TPD.

    In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    I just read Blair's speech and threw up in my mouth a little, is this really the sort of thing that Labour think are going to win them votes ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeL said:

    Sporting Index has just moved Lab up one seat. Con unchanged.

    Con 284-288
    Lab 269-273

    Lab hold Broxtowe. :smile:

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    JackW said:

    Update from Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.

    Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.

    Huzzah for the Viscount.

    Viscounts - The backbone of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland. :innocent:
    The number and frequency of leafletting by Mr Sinclair seems to demonstrate desperation following poor private polling rather than anything worth a cheer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited April 2015

    Uh oh, this poor chap is in for a world of abuse

    An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snp-secretly-hope-for-tory-victory-says-prominent-yes-campaigner-as-he-defects-to-labour/

    He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.

    'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'

    http://tinyurl.com/n3vst9j

    Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
    He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
    A double TPD.

    In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.



    To be honest, I think he's an idiot, because I'm not keen on things like "Asians for Independence" or "Asians for the Union"
This discussion has been closed.