I just read Blair's speech and threw up in my mouth a little, is this really the sort of thing that Labour think are going to win them votes ?
No idea but I think the general consensus nowadays is that Blair is a law unto himself. A bit like Ted Heath in the Thtcher/Major years. He's a semi-detached figure from yesterday.
11.39 Oh dear, the bookies aren't too impressed with Mr Blair's intervention.
William Hill have eased the odds on Mr Miliband becoming Prime Minister, from 11/8 to 6/4, while Paddy Power has Britain on 5/6 to stay in the EU and 5/6 to go.
I just read Blair's speech and threw up in my mouth a little, is this really the sort of thing that Labour think are going to win them votes ?
No idea but I think the general consensus nowadays is that Blair is a law unto himself. A bit like Ted Heath in the Thtcher/Major years. He's a semi-detached figure from yesterday.
Hasn't that always been Blairs position with labour though? Not really seen as 'proper' labour, and only tolerated because he won.
I just read Blair's speech and threw up in my mouth a little, is this really the sort of thing that Labour think are going to win them votes ?
No idea but I think the general consensus nowadays is that Blair is a law unto himself. A bit like Ted Heath in the Thtcher/Major years. He's a semi-detached figure from yesterday.
Oh I agree you can't really shut the man up, but if I was Labour I would be seriously wondering who thought it was a good idea to invite him to a party election event, in the same way the Tories wouldn't have invited Health to the platform for their election events.
An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.
He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.
'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'
Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
A double TPD.
In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.
That may be true.
But the level of backstabbing, infighting, dirty tricks and smearing that SLAB will entertain us with in the run up to Holyrood 2016 to get the top list nomination in each seat will be a sight to behold.
Monklands will look like a friendly dinner party compared to what Scottish Labour are about to go through.
Just Glasgow alone is going to be an incredible bunfight with Murphy, Sarwar, Curran, Harris, Davidson, Lamont, Kelly and at least a few of the even less-entities all competing for perhaps 4 list seats.
If SLAB think this is carnage. They have not seen any thing yet.
11.39 Oh dear, the bookies aren't too impressed with Mr Blair's intervention.
William Hill have eased the odds on Mr Miliband becoming Prime Minister, from 11/8 to 6/4, while Paddy Power has Britain on 5/6 to stay in the EU and 5/6 to go.
That 6-4 represents excellent value.
Yet he is 5-6 to become next PM with Hills too.
There is no way there is a 14% probability gap between those two.
An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.
He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.
'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'
Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
A double TPD.
In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.
To be honest, I think he's an idiot, because I'm not keen on things like "Asians for Independence" or "Asians for the Union"
Ha, the story twists and turns.
'However, Shoaib has told CommonSpace that while he does want to see a Labour government ahead of the Tories - he would like to see Labour and the SNP work together in a "loose" arrangement following May’s vote.
"Basically, I’ve not joined Labour and I’m still officially a member of the SNP," said Shoaib.'
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 4th April Projection) :
Con 312 (-1) .. Lab 246 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 4 Apr - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Broken, sleazy Con on the Slide into the depths of JackW's ample ARSE!
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
So Labour have enlisted Blagger Blair to give them a boost..says it all really..they really have reached rock bottom.
Not a great fan of Blair but he did whip your boys three times...
Today's Populus - EICIPM.
Cracking start to the week for Labour and here in London things look great - London will deliver big time for Labour, still a little nervous about the crucial West Midlands region though...
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
It is almost like you're ignoring all the other pollsters and focussing on the one that fits your meme
An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.
He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.
'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'
Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
A double TPD.
In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.
To be honest, I think he's an idiot, because I'm not keen on things like "Asians for Independence" or "Asians for the Union"
Ha, the story twists and turns.
'However, Shoaib has told CommonSpace that while he does want to see a Labour government ahead of the Tories - he would like to see Labour and the SNP work together in a "loose" arrangement following May’s vote.
"Basically, I’ve not joined Labour and I’m still officially a member of the SNP," said Shoaib.'
I agree. In my early career the consultancy I was working for did some audits for the government of the day on benefit fraud, the numbers were needless to say confidential, but they were certainly substantially higher that I would have believed before I did the audit.
Personally I am reasonably relaxed about the national identity number thing, compared to some of the outrageous intrusions it seems acceptable to let the security services get away with its a pretty benign change. What it needs are real safeguards, with real teeth, the trick is always getting governments to introduce those, because government really hate being checked up on, especially when they conspicuously want to bend the rules at the first opportunity!
Which is exactly what the Scottish Government are proposing, a single central database all public bodies can use if there is a genuine need and never open to private companies and other safeguards.
But all they get at FMQs is "ID Cards, ID Cards, ID Cards, SNP Bad, ID Cards".
The SNP doesn't exactly help itself with this recent nonsense about not allowing members to be critical of the party, and permitting Police Scotland to get involved in all sorts of illiberal practises regarding free speech. If organisations behave in an illiberal way, and permit others they are placed over to behave in an illiberal way, you cant exactly blame the public and others from believing it will use these sort of laws in an illiberal way as well.
Eh? IIRC, 'members' was MSPs not party members - the SNP do have open votes at conference, vide NATO and all that - and the tweets thing was all part of UK-wide law and practice (whether it is a good thing or not I am undecided, but don't blame the Scots uniquely please).
Clever move by the SNP. They're going to oppose attempts to increase the retirement age.
Depends how you define clever I suppose...
Might win them more votes, but making the welfare state in Scotland more generous and expensive than England is not any kind of clever, especially if they really do want to be a separate state. That way madness lies.
I considered voting UKIP but I must admit I have come home and I'm urging fellow UKIP supporters to vote the right way this time. Now is not the time to risk the red eds as PM and Chancellor propped up by the SNP. When you consider that grim reality, you really have to vote Conservative no matter what your beliefs are towards the EU. Even knowing full well all three parties, business, and the city will be pushing hard to avoid a brexit if we get the referendum - you still have to vote to prevent Miliband and Balls getting anywhere near the halls of power.
An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.
He's changed more than his party accoring to the Record.
'Asians for Independence organiser Muhammed Shoaib has resigned from her party in disgust that so many nationalist activists secretly back the Tories.'
Just like he was Labour, then SNP and back to Labour, Shoaib now seems to have reverted to a mister.
He's a modern day Churchill, he once defected, and re-defected back when he saw what the reality of his new party was.
A double TPD.
In Shoaib's case the reality of his new party was that he couldn't finagle a candidacy. I'm sure SLab will do the right thing by him; there may soon be plenty of constuencies where people won't be arsed to put themselves forward for the thankless & rewardless task of being a SLab candidate.
To be honest, I think he's an idiot, because I'm not keen on things like "Asians for Independence" or "Asians for the Union"
Ha, the story twists and turns.
'However, Shoaib has told CommonSpace that while he does want to see a Labour government ahead of the Tories - he would like to see Labour and the SNP work together in a "loose" arrangement following May’s vote.
"Basically, I’ve not joined Labour and I’m still officially a member of the SNP," said Shoaib.'
1,000 extra nurses for our NHS, funded by a mansion tax More powers for the Scottish Parliament including the final say on benefits Guarantee a job and training for all young people £1,600 for 18 and 19 year olds who don’t have an apprenticeship, go to college or university, to invest in themselves or start a business Raise the minimum wage to at least £8 an hour Guarantee the Barnett Formula to deliver billions of pounds more for our schools, hospitals and pensions Increase the bursaries for the poorest students by £1,000 No tuition fees for Scottish students Ban exploitative zero hour contracts End the need for food-banks with £175m to tackle the causes of poverty
Mm, interesting. At least 40% of that list, arguably, is irrelevant to a Westminster GE. And most of the rest is not deliverable by any organization called the 'Scottish Labour Party': it might be by the Labour Party, but that is a different animal.
@May2015NS: We have a new academic forecast putting LAB just ahead on seats, contrary to all other predictions...Live on http://t.co/j83TeUDhFz shortly.
1,000 extra nurses for our NHS, funded by a mansion tax More powers for the Scottish Parliament including the final say on benefits Guarantee a job and training for all young people £1,600 for 18 and 19 year olds who don’t have an apprenticeship, go to college or university, to invest in themselves or start a business Raise the minimum wage to at least £8 an hour Guarantee the Barnett Formula to deliver billions of pounds more for our schools, hospitals and pensions Increase the bursaries for the poorest students by £1,000 No tuition fees for Scottish students Ban exploitative zero hour contracts End the need for food-banks with £175m to tackle the causes of poverty
Mm, interesting. At least 40% of that list, arguably, is irrelevant to a Westminster GE. And most of the rest is not deliverable by any organization called the 'Scottish Labour Party': it might be by the Labour Party, but that is a different animal.
Not a single reference to affordability. Its all power and powers but no reference to where any money for Scotland specific goodies comes from, except of course the Barnett Formula which is no different to any formula for English regions - but in this context is code for England paying. How much will a Scottish mansion Tax bring in?
Just put a cheeky £5 on a Lab/LD/SNP coalition forming the next gov't at 20-1. Hung parliament seems a cert. I can't see the LDs propping up another Tory-led coalition (if the Tories end up the largest party). This would leave Dave a little short of options for partners - the DUP perhaps, but would that be enough? Looking at it the other way, it seems unlikely that Lab will have a workable majority with either the LDs or SNP alone. Bring them together and you could badge it as a national unity government, cue another rose garden love-in. Anything fundamentally wrong with my logic? Have I wasted my money?
BlokeNHSF...UP UKIP @Bnhsfup 3h3 hours ago This is how lib/Lab/Cons treat us, are you seriously considering voting for them? I pray to God you are not!!!!... http://fb.me/450qjmF3Y
Blair starts by making the best Conservative pitch I've heard in ages, describing their referendum pledge.
They says it would be the first time since joining that exit is on the agenda, which shows impressively poor recall of past Labour referenda.
I hope the referendum pledge is enough to bring significant numbers of UKIP supporters home. But everyone knows it's meaningless. Blair knows full well an exit will never look close to happening because everyone who matters to swaying public opinion will be fully behind the staying in vote.
11.39 Oh dear, the bookies aren't too impressed with Mr Blair's intervention.
William Hill have eased the odds on Mr Miliband becoming Prime Minister, from 11/8 to 6/4, while Paddy Power has Britain on 5/6 to stay in the EU and 5/6 to go.
If you can get a decent bet on, that 5/6 on Britain staying in the EU is one of the best bets I've seen in a long, long time. There's no chance in hell Britain will vote to leave the EU when all the political parties aside from UKIP are behind the No to leaving campaign. You'll have the vast majority of big business scaremongering about jobs, the economy, the city, the majority of the media all fully behind the no to leaving campaign. If you thought the SNP had it difficult in Scotland, those wanting a Brexit will have an almost impossible job against the resources of those wanting to stay in the EU. It won't even be close.
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
It is almost like you're ignoring all the other pollsters and focussing on the one that fits your meme
The favourable/unfavourable question is the only one that maps to 'more popular'.
1,000 extra nurses for our NHS, funded by a mansion tax More powers for the Scottish Parliament including the final say on benefits Guarantee a job and training for all young people £1,600 for 18 and 19 year olds who don’t have an apprenticeship, go to college or university, to invest in themselves or start a business Raise the minimum wage to at least £8 an hour Guarantee the Barnett Formula to deliver billions of pounds more for our schools, hospitals and pensions Increase the bursaries for the poorest students by £1,000 No tuition fees for Scottish students Ban exploitative zero hour contracts End the need for food-banks with £175m to tackle the causes of poverty
Mm, interesting. At least 40% of that list, arguably, is irrelevant to a Westminster GE. And most of the rest is not deliverable by any organization called the 'Scottish Labour Party': it might be by the Labour Party, but that is a different animal.
Not a single reference to affordability. Its all power and powers but no reference to where any money for Scotland specific goodies comes from, except of course the Barnett Formula which is no different to any formula for English regions - but in this context is code for England paying. How much will a Scottish mansion Tax bring in?
How many of those things are actually also promised for rUK as well, pro rata where appropriate (e.g. the nurses)? A genuine question - I'm not au fait offhand with Labour promises at the moment.
The tuition fees is just the status quo, paid for by savings elsewhere. And the 'more powers' could be anything or nothing (it's the budget that controls what happens).
Roger Da Costa @rog_ukip 2h2 hours ago Everywhere you look, social media, out on the streets etc, everyone says they're voting UKIP but the polls are saying different.
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
It is almost like you're ignoring all the other pollsters and focussing on the one that fits your meme
The favourable/unfavourable question is the only one that maps to 'more popular'.
Well the Ipsos Mori like/dislike party/leader polling is much better.
BlokeNHSF...UP UKIP @Bnhsfup 3h3 hours ago This is how lib/Lab/Cons treat us, are you seriously considering voting for them? I pray to God you are not!!!!... http://fb.me/450qjmF3Y
Russia Today. Is Vlad helping out his good friend Nigel?
Roger Da Costa @rog_ukip 2h2 hours ago Everywhere you look, social media, out on the streets etc, everyone says they're voting UKIP but the polls are saying different.
I wonder why?
People surround themselves with people that agree with them? Not a new phenomenon.
Let's face it, you see people you follow / are friends with on Twitter / Facebook far more than any other "social media". Even if you "discover" on Twitter it'll provide you with the tweets most of interest based on who you already follow.
I see for reasons best known to himself Cameron is campaigning in NI today. No doubt he'll be doing his all to proclaim what a Unionist he is whilst p***ing off the Scots at every turn.
I see for reasons best known to himself Cameron is campaigning in NI today. No doubt he'll be doing his all to proclaim what a Unionist he is whilst p***ing off the Scots at every turn.
BlokeNHSF...UP UKIP @Bnhsfup 3h3 hours ago This is how lib/Lab/Cons treat us, are you seriously considering voting for them? I pray to God you are not!!!!... http://fb.me/450qjmF3Y
Russia Today. Is Vlad helping out his good friend Nigel?
Not only is the article a poor reflection of the law both in force and prospective, but allegations of a "LibLabCon" conspiracy do UKIP not favours when trying to appeal to a wider audience.
Today got a letter from the prospective UKIP MP for H&U.. would I put a UKIP poster in my window or a board in the garden?
Don't know that I can deal with the hassle I might get
I, conveniently, am banned under my tenancy agreement from doing such things (in my case Conservative, in an area where they got 4% in council elections).
If Farage goes then Patrick O'Flynn should be the next leader imo. When I've seen him speak about the economy, I agree with him more than I agree with a lot of Labour frontbenchers!
Today got a letter from the prospective UKIP MP for H&U.. would I put a UKIP poster in my window or a board in the garden?
Don't know that I can deal with the hassle I might get
I, conveniently, am banned under my tenancy agreement from doing such things (in my case Conservative, in an area where they got 4% in council elections).
Hmm I rent the house I live in, but also rent out my flat in the same constituency.. so can I put boards up in both? Or neither???
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
It is almost like you're ignoring all the other pollsters and focussing on the one that fits your meme
The favourable/unfavourable question is the only one that maps to 'more popular'.
Well the Ipsos Mori like/dislike party/leader polling is much better.
I don't recall seeing that one.
------
The BES touched on this question last week:
"...given the well-known differential between ‘best prime minister’ questions comparing David Cameron and Ed Miliband. One could be forgiven for assuming that David Cameron is therefore an asset for his party. However, less than 30% of respondents tend to opt for David Cameron in ‘best prime minister’ questions (lower than average Conservative vote intention), and ratings of Cameron on YouGov’s ‘doing well or badly’ leadership question are consistently net negative (and have been since 2010). This is borne out in BES questions on leadership as well. On a BES dislike-like scale, where 0 = strongly dislike and 10 = strongly like, David Cameron’s mean score is 4.0, Ed Miliband’s is 3.7, Nick Clegg’s is 3.3 and Nigel Farage’s is 3.1. We should be cautious before concluding that David Cameron has an unequivocal leadership advantage."
That a rather pejorative way of saying lots of people shouldn't come to this country with long term chronic conditions and expect the British public to foot the bill indefinitely. This again is uncontroversial in many liberal democracies, but for some reason the UK feels the need to run up bills. Chronic condition suffers are suffering all over the world, what we are doing is salving our conscience by paying to treat the visible people, while ignoring the other 99%, hardly a strong moral position.
No - someone said on here that AIDS sufferers should be stigmatised.
That's utterly wrong in my book, and was probably exactly what Farage wanted.
UK is a real patsy , no other country in the world would accept people just turning up ill and give free treatment. No matter where you go you have to be able to prove you have insurance or pay up front etc. It is a disgrace that people here are being turned away for treatments due to lack of money and yet we will accept any Tom, Dick or Harry and do it for free.
Careful, the most devloped countries' "health insurance" schemes aren't really insurance - you pay the same regardless of how sick you get or how sick you're likely to get, it's usually compulsory to be signed up, and the amount you pay usually depends on your income. Functionally this isn't much different from paying out of taxes like in the UK, especially from the point of view of a sick person: You show up, start paying the same as a healthy person, and immediately start getting treatment.
Correct. From the very first day you start paying tax and NI in the UK you could sadly contract a very serious disease and get 'free' treatment. The same is entirely true of an overseas worker who works gets paid an pays tax and NI. So called benefit tourism, according to how you define it, is broadly wrong. Its one of the things that need clarifying and correcting. But if you go and live and work overseas you will join a scheme and from the very first day you pay in you could become ill and get treatment. As far as the EU is concerned anybody can get treatment for the first six months (ie if you are a visitor) via the EU health card.
Today got a letter from the prospective UKIP MP for H&U.. would I put a UKIP poster in my window or a board in the garden?
Don't know that I can deal with the hassle I might get
I, conveniently, am banned under my tenancy agreement from doing such things (in my case Conservative, in an area where they got 4% in council elections).
Hmm I rent the house I live in, but also rent out my flat in the same constituency.. so can I put boards up in both? Or neither???
Hm, there's got to be a way of getting the taxpayer to do it for you...
The Smithson line 'DC is more attractive than his party' is correct as far as it goes. But such has been the trashing of the tory brand that any other likely leader would also be considerably more attractive than the tory brand name.
The ComRes favourability numbers do not support that claim.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
It is almost like you're ignoring all the other pollsters and focussing on the one that fits your meme
The favourable/unfavourable question is the only one that maps to 'more popular'.
Well the Ipsos Mori like/dislike party/leader polling is much better.
I don't recall seeing that one.
------
The BES touched on this question last week:
"...given the well-known differential between ‘best prime minister’ questions comparing David Cameron and Ed Miliband. One could be forgiven for assuming that David Cameron is therefore an asset for his party. However, less than 30% of respondents tend to opt for David Cameron in ‘best prime minister’ questions (lower than average Conservative vote intention), and ratings of Cameron on YouGov’s ‘doing well or badly’ leadership question are consistently net negative (and have been since 2010). This is borne out in BES questions on leadership as well. On a BES dislike-like scale, where 0 = strongly dislike and 10 = strongly like, David Cameron’s mean score is 4.0, Ed Miliband’s is 3.7, Nick Clegg’s is 3.3 and Nigel Farage’s is 3.1. We should be cautious before concluding that David Cameron has an unequivocal leadership advantage."
Clever move by the SNP. They're going to oppose attempts to increase the retirement age.
Depends how you define clever I suppose...
Might win them more votes, but making the welfare state in Scotland more generous and expensive than England is not any kind of clever, especially if they really do want to be a separate state. That way madness lies.
SNP promises made to further the cause of independence should not be confused with the SNP making promises about the situation should Scotland become independent. As we know, once separation takes place the SNP has secured its aim. Whether any of what it says will happen actually does happen after that is neither here nor there. It's all about creating a frontier and securing "freedom". Once that is achieved all bets are off.
This morning received no fewer than 3 separate communications in the post from Lord Thurso bringing the total to 8. At this rate he will have to watch out for the election expenses limit being breached.
Nothing yet from any other candidate. Spoke to someone who has had a leaflet from SNP and Tories. Nothing from Labour.
Huzzah for the Viscount.
Viscounts - The backbone of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland.
The number and frequency of leafletting by Mr Sinclair seems to demonstrate desperation following poor private polling rather than anything worth a cheer.
I know SNP wallas don't do detail but a point of fact is that John Thurso isn't a "Mr".
On your more substantive point I have this odd thought that had Viscount Thurso not been undertaking a robust campaign you'd be indicating he'd given up.
Clearly as a matter of consistency you'll also be of the opinion that the extensive SNP leafleting campaign in many seats is also a sign of "desperation" ??
On another note I am astounded at Tory efforts to gain Colchester from "Sir Bob" Russell, including Theresa May and George Osborne visiting - potentially more soon. I once gave tim 8/1 (or was it 7/1) on a Conservative gain, haven't looked back since.
Sporting Index has just moved Lab up one seat. Con unchanged.
Con 284-288 Lab 269-273
Lab hold Broxtowe.
Jack - shouldn't that be Broxtowe Labour GAIN
I added the emoticon to indicate the sometime noted thought that Anna Soubry and our own Nick are more like peas in pod. Some might think Nick taking the seat is a Con Hold ..... but I couldn't possibly comment.
An SNP member in Nicola Sturgeon’s constituency who was an organiser of Asians for Independence during the Scottish referendum has defected to Labour – and has accused members of his former party of secretly hoping for a Tory victory in May.
Murali s Blair also whupped several hundred thousand people to death because he told a blatant lie..unforgivable in my book but you appear to be easy with it
I considered voting UKIP but I must admit I have come home and I'm urging fellow UKIP supporters to vote the right way this time. Now is not the time to risk the red eds as PM and Chancellor propped up by the SNP. When you consider that grim reality, you really have to vote Conservative no matter what your beliefs are towards the EU. Even knowing full well all three parties, business, and the city will be pushing hard to avoid a brexit if we get the referendum - you still have to vote to prevent Miliband and Balls getting anywhere near the halls of power.
The irony for an insurgent party is that times like this that are the only times the major parties are listening. In the next election the Kippers might get 30 seats, but if Dave or Ed have a majority of 80, they wont care and will ignore them. The only time an insurgent party gets listened to is when the votes they are attracting from the main parties might affect the result of the election.
If Dave had felt on course of a nice tidy working majority there isn't the slightest chance he would have made the referendum pledge, he made it because the election looked tight and he was haemorrhaging votes to the kippers.
Cheale has not been a tory since she fell out with the local tories in 2010. Tellingly she helped keep Labour in control of the council in 2011. ''She used her casting vote as the outgoing mayor to elect Labour’s candidate Charles Curtis over Tory Tunde Ojetola, who was her deputy.'' I wonder why she did not like Mr Ojetola?
I considered voting UKIP but I must admit I have come home and I'm urging fellow UKIP supporters to vote the right way this time. Now is not the time to risk the red eds as PM and Chancellor propped up by the SNP. When you consider that grim reality, you really have to vote Conservative no matter what your beliefs are towards the EU. Even knowing full well all three parties, business, and the city will be pushing hard to avoid a brexit if we get the referendum - you still have to vote to prevent Miliband and Balls getting anywhere near the halls of power.
The irony for an insurgent party is that times like this that are the only times the major parties are listening. In the next election the Kippers might get 30 seats, but if Dave or Ed have a majority of 80, they wont care and will ignore them. The only time an insurgent party gets listened to is when the votes they are attracting from the main parties might affect the result of the election.
If Dave had felt on course of a nice tidy working majority there isn't the slightest chance he would have made the referendum pledge, he made it because the election looked tight and he was haemorrhaging votes to the kippers.
No. Trueblue is talking sense. There are always things to disagree with your party on. Assuming you are an activist (I'm not) you can do your bit to have your say on promoting policy. It would be absurd to think that all activists, never mind all voters, can ever agree with everything a political party says or does. As soon as what you call an insurgent party grows big enough, then it too will start to have policy splits. The 'ugly nativism' of UKIP has already been called into question. As the LDs have shown, a small party can say what it wants and fund it by wishful thinking. It does not have to deal with the consequences in the real world.
Murali s Blair also whupped several hundred thousand people to death because he told a blatant lie..unforgivable in my book but you appear to be easy with it
As I said, not a great fan. He made the ultimate decision of sending troops to war (committing war crimes) on a lie. Agree 100%.
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Yes this is my point, when you take into account the current SNP expected number of seats that difference is enourmous.
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
Murali s Blair also whupped several hundred thousand people to death because he told a blatant lie..unforgivable in my book but you appear to be easy with it
As I said, not a great fan. He made the ultimate decision of sending troops to war (committing war crimes) on a lie. Agree 100%.
The voters forgave him, though. Or perhaps they didn't think the Iraq war was that important vs the mortgage offer they received in their cornflakes packet that morning.
I'm amazed Tony is back in Sedgefield in an action replay of when he came out of his tanning booth for Gordon. It's creepy - but at least he doesn't look like a wizened orange with a mid-pond accent.
At the moment - according to Populus - they are, in a very big way, accounting for more than half of the net Conservative to Labour swing form the 2010 GE.
We have three pollsters - Survation Online, Populus Online and Comres Online - all giving UKIP 50% more switchers than the other pollsters do.
This seems from my rough estimation to be the difference between the small Tory leads the other pollsters have and the small Labour leads that this bunch have.
The Tories would, of course, like their defectors back in areas where it will help them win. I'm not sure they want them back in Rotherham, Heywood or any other Labour stronghold that UKIP may break through in, but where the Tories will never stand a chance.
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
Add Plaid to that too.
...and Green, SDLP, Respect (plus the speaker?!?!)
Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
How about Labour 330-340 ?
Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like
Edinburgh East Milton Keynes South Stourbridge Cleethorpes Edinburgh West Watford Leeds North West Finchley and Golders Green Peterborough Ilford North
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
Add Plaid to that too.
...and Green, SDLP, Respect (plus the speaker?!?!)
And half of Sinn Fein. Mind you you can give the other half to the Tories
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
Add Plaid to that too.
...and Green, SDLP, Respect (plus the speaker?!?!)
Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
How about Labour 330-340 ?
Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like
Edinburgh East Milton Keynes South Stourbridge Cleethorpes Edinburgh West Watford Leeds North West Finchley and Golders Green Peterborough Ilford North
Labour are ahead in Peterborough according to Yougov's widget thingy :O !
I have quite a lot of cash still on labour most seats, that still simply seems value.
Get some money on Ed being PM after the GE - you need to head down to around 1.25 on Con Seats before 6-4 Ed Mili PM becomes a bad bet imo.
?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
Surely the magic number is Labour + SNP. If thats majority, then its game over.
Add Plaid to that too.
...and Green, SDLP, Respect (plus the speaker?!?!)
And half of Sinn Fein. Mind you you can give the other half to the Tories
SF will never sit at Westminster! "A million years, in the short term!"
Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
How about Labour 330-340 ?
Seats in the 5/2-11/4 range, like
Edinburgh East Milton Keynes South Stourbridge Cleethorpes Edinburgh West Watford Leeds North West Finchley and Golders Green Peterborough Ilford North
Whereas the 330-340 for the Tories are 7/2-4/1 shots:
Derby North Hendon Halifax Lancaster and Fleetwood Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Bath Eastleigh Lewes Thornbury and Yate Telford Hampstead and Kilburn Thanet South Colchester
Of course, each seat price can really be thought of as representing a [complicated] combination of probabilities:
1) The probability that the national swing will move to around the required level 2) The probability that the seat-specific swing will move to around the required level 3) The chance of any future 'events' with respect to the specific candidates
And the seat-specific swing very much needs to take into account what may have been unusual in 2010 as much as what may be unusual in 2015...
Comments
But the level of backstabbing, infighting, dirty tricks and smearing that SLAB will entertain us with in the run up to Holyrood 2016 to get the top list nomination in each seat will be a sight to behold.
Monklands will look like a friendly dinner party compared to what Scottish Labour are about to go through.
Just Glasgow alone is going to be an incredible bunfight with Murphy, Sarwar, Curran, Harris, Davidson, Lamont, Kelly and at least a few of the even less-entities all competing for perhaps 4 list seats.
If SLAB think this is carnage. They have not seen any thing yet.
Yet he is 5-6 to become next PM with Hills too.
There is no way there is a 14% probability gap between those two.
'However, Shoaib has told CommonSpace that while he does want to see a Labour government ahead of the Tories - he would like to see Labour and the SNP work together in a "loose" arrangement following May’s vote.
"Basically, I’ve not joined Labour and I’m still officially a member of the SNP," said Shoaib.'
http://tinyurl.com/nd8m8gk
He sounds a bit of a twat whatever his current allegiance.
Mr Cameron has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, so he has been responsible for shaping the policy platform, and marketing of that Party for the last 10 years.
Con Majority: 5.0
Con Most Seats: 1.26
Labour Prime Minister: 2.38
Today's Populus - EICIPM.
Cracking start to the week for Labour and here in London things look great - London will deliver big time for Labour, still a little nervous about the crucial West Midlands region though...
Might win them more votes, but making the welfare state in Scotland more generous and expensive than England is not any kind of clever, especially if they really do want to be a separate state. That way madness lies.
Even if you believe the Betfair seats/OM market is bent out of shape in favour of the Conservatives, it is still value !
Madness, utter madness.
To put that into context, with the traditional bookies, Labour are 50/1 to win Banbury, where the Tories are 1/100 favourites to win that seat.
Former Conservative Mayor and Leader of Thurrock Council announces her support for UKIP’s Tim Aker http://www.ukip.org/former_conservative_mayor_and_leader_of_thurrock_council_announces_her_support_for_ukip_s_tim_aker …
This is how lib/Lab/Cons treat us, are you seriously considering voting for them? I pray to God you are not!!!!... http://fb.me/450qjmF3Y
The tuition fees is just the status quo, paid for by savings elsewhere. And the 'more powers' could be anything or nothing (it's the budget that controls what happens).
Everywhere you look, social media, out on the streets etc, everyone says they're voting UKIP but the polls are saying different.
I wonder why?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/no-really-snp-are-going-win-least-50-scotland-s-59-seats
Instead, shouldn't we be measuring:
a) whether the right patients are getting priority in A&E, and
b) the quality of the treatment provided in A&E?
Who made the decision to set this waiting time target and how do they justify it?
Let's face it, you see people you follow / are friends with on Twitter / Facebook far more than any other "social media". Even if you "discover" on Twitter it'll provide you with the tweets most of interest based on who you already follow.
Beyond parody.
Don't know that I can deal with the hassle I might get
Patrick O'Flynn dismisses Tony Blair comments about UKIP: https://youtu.be/AgxbtODk0XA via @YouTube
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The BES touched on this question last week:
"...given the well-known differential between ‘best prime minister’ questions comparing David Cameron and Ed Miliband. One could be forgiven for assuming that David Cameron is therefore an asset for his party. However, less than 30% of respondents tend to opt for David Cameron in ‘best prime minister’ questions (lower than average Conservative vote intention), and ratings of Cameron on YouGov’s ‘doing well or badly’ leadership question are consistently net negative (and have been since 2010). This is borne out in BES questions on leadership as well. On a BES dislike-like scale, where 0 = strongly dislike and 10 = strongly like, David Cameron’s mean score is 4.0, Ed Miliband’s is 3.7, Nick Clegg’s is 3.3 and Nigel Farage’s is 3.1. We should be cautious before concluding that David Cameron has an unequivocal leadership advantage."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/conservative-assets-and-liabilities/
From the very first day you start paying tax and NI in the UK you could sadly contract a very serious disease and get 'free' treatment.
The same is entirely true of an overseas worker who works gets paid an pays tax and NI.
So called benefit tourism, according to how you define it, is broadly wrong. Its one of the things that need clarifying and correcting. But if you go and live and work overseas you will join a scheme and from the very first day you pay in you could become ill and get treatment.
As far as the EU is concerned anybody can get treatment for the first six months (ie if you are a visitor) via the EU health card.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3541/Labour-are-the-most-popular-party-but-Miliband-trails-behind.aspx
They generally poll on this twice a year, and have done for many years, so you can discern a real trend/pattern
'Why are we measuring waiting time in A&E?'
Yes, measuring the time to see someone with a minor ailment that couldn't be arsed to register with a GP or go to their local pharmacy.
On your more substantive point I have this odd thought that had Viscount Thurso not been undertaking a robust campaign you'd be indicating he'd given up.
Clearly as a matter of consistency you'll also be of the opinion that the extensive SNP leafleting campaign in many seats is also a sign of "desperation" ??
The very 1st SNP target - Ochil (By UNS) still has a majority of 5,000 to overcome.
If Dave had felt on course of a nice tidy working majority there isn't the slightest chance he would have made the referendum pledge, he made it because the election looked tight and he was haemorrhaging votes to the kippers.
That is a boost for the Tories and UKIP.
I bet he very well knows than an endorsement from him is the political kiss of death and he is using it to hit Labour.
https://m.soundcloud.com/thepoliticalparty/show-20-michael-portillo
Same exercise for Tories has a bunch of Labour seats - Stalybridge, Bridgend, Exeter etc @ 12/1
How bad are things going for Labour, that they think bringing back Blair will improve them?
It may still reprsent value as even if Conservatives largest party Miliband still should be shorter to be PM. The question is how many seats do Conservatives need to form Government
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585149148980187136
This seems from my rough estimation to be the difference between the small Tory leads the other pollsters have and the small Labour leads that this bunch have.
The Tories would, of course, like their defectors back in areas where it will help them win. I'm not sure they want them back in Rotherham, Heywood or any other Labour stronghold that UKIP may break through in, but where the Tories will never stand a chance.
In those places they're Trojan Horse Tories.
Edinburgh East
Milton Keynes South
Stourbridge
Cleethorpes
Edinburgh West
Watford
Leeds North West
Finchley and Golders Green
Peterborough
Ilford North
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/585393227575992320
Does anyone know off-the-cuff?
Derby North
Hendon
Halifax
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Bath
Eastleigh
Lewes
Thornbury and Yate
Telford
Hampstead and Kilburn
Thanet South
Colchester
Of course, each seat price can really be thought of as representing a [complicated] combination of probabilities:
1) The probability that the national swing will move to around the required level
2) The probability that the seat-specific swing will move to around the required level
3) The chance of any future 'events' with respect to the specific candidates
And the seat-specific swing very much needs to take into account what may have been unusual in 2010 as much as what may be unusual in 2015...