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  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Scott_P said:

    @jonwalker121: Sunday Times reporting former NY Mayor @MikeBloomberg could be Tory candidate 4 London mayor (@karren_brady has also said she's interested)

    Not sure how I feel about that. He'd have to swear allegiance to HM for starters.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Farage losing would be my Portillo moment in the early hours of 8th May...

    Particularly as he said he would step down as leader - how delicious

    Farage, Clegg, Dougie Alexander, Charlie Kennedy - there are shitloads of potential Portillo moments this time.
    Check your inbox
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Pulpstar said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Farage losing would be my Portillo moment in the early hours of 8th May...

    Particularly as he said he would step down as leader - how delicious

    Farage, Clegg, Dougie Alexander, Charlie Kennedy - there are shitloads of potential Portillo moments this time.
    Oh indeed - but Farage is the one I would savour
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think there's a wisdom index in the Telegraph

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxo_KlWMAAO9D7.jpg

    Tories ahead with women, surely that can't be correct.
    Can't open Telegraph link.

    What does the ICM Wisdom say?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    kle4 said:

    Anyone else not seeing links to twitter posts? I thought people were making an odd point by posting blank spaces somehow, which admittedly would have as much content as one of my average comments, but alas was not the case as I could see when 'quoting' the empty spaces. Not seen that error before.

    They sometimes take time to load.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Artist said:

    There's a lot of game playing going on by all sides in Thanet South, probably expected for a tight three way marginal where each side are fighting for the same voters. The fact Farage could come third in one poll and 11% ahead in another shows that it's an unpredictable seat and Farage will have no idea if he will be a MP until election night itself.

    The 11% poll was by Survation, who generally have the highest UKIP shares.

    Survation constituency polls don't past vote weight as a rule
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    God. Look at that line chart.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    Yep.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    It`s really bizarre.

    PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!

    Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    Thanks.
    I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.

  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    @jonwalker121: Sunday Times reporting former NY Mayor @MikeBloomberg could be Tory candidate 4 London mayor (@karren_brady has also said she's interested)

    Bloomberg would be very interesting - he was a pretty effective mayor of NYC.

    But not going to happen for a million and one reasons.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015
    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    You'll have to get on the phone and mobilise the horde of LD supporters in Thanet.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SMukesh said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    It`s really bizarre.

    PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!

    Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    Thanks.
    I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.

    I am not trying to be funny, I am calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    I am also putting spaces after the punctuation marks.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    So which of the Tories or Labour will be taking one for the team?
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.

    The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.

    In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.

    (a) Farage has form of making fanciful claims about Tory defects.
    He does. Although to be fair, eventually a couple did come true.
    That's true.

    Although perhaps I should clarify I meant "Tory defections" not "Tory defects" :p
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    30th anniversary of the death of Willie McRae tomorrow.

    SNP won't touch it but will be interesting to watch social media.

    Especially as the consensus today is that he was murdered not for being a Nationalist but because he had a copy of at least a portion of the VIP Paedo-Files.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TGOHF said:

    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.

    Of voting Labour?
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    It`s really bizarre.

    PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!

    Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    Thanks.
    I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.

    I am not trying to be funny, I am calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    I am also putting spaces after the punctuation marks.
    Suit yourself.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Looking back at the spreads on the previous thread regarding Scotland.
    It might worth noting that the SNP got 53 of the 73 FPTP seats in the Holyrood elections in 2011 Labour 15 the Tories 3 and the Libdems 2.
    This would equate to 43/12/2/2 when converting to the 59 seats for Scotland in HoC on a pure proportional measure. (Not totally accurate I know, but seems close although it does overstated the Libdems!)
    The precentage of the vote was 45/32/14/8. With Labour consistently polling 5% below this in opinion polls for Scotland at the moment single figure MP's seems very possible. It also shows the hopelessness of the position for the Libdems and only 1 seat looks likely.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SMukesh said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    It`s really bizarre.

    PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!

    Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    Thanks.
    I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.

    Can you point us to the link please.
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    The problem with politicians is they thing they are right, and that all right thinking people should also see things the way they do. If for some reason a voter disagrees, it is obviously because the voter doesnt understand the issue, and just needs it better explained.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    nigel4england said:

    TGOHF said:

    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.

    Of voting Labour?
    It'd very strange if Labour won it, it doesn't seem like a Labour type seat at all.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Artist said:

    nigel4england said:

    TGOHF said:

    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.

    Of voting Labour?
    It'd very strange if Labour won it, it doesn't seem like a Labour type seat at all.
    They held it between 1997 and 2010
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think there's a wisdom index in the Telegraph

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxo_KlWMAAO9D7.jpg

    Telegraph have already dropped #FrenchGate ?
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715

    "Relish the chance to show who I am" - this is the man who claims not to care what people think of him. The man who doesn't care about his image.

    This is the man who writes himself little notes. Ah, how sweet!
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jonwalker121: Sunday Times reporting former NY Mayor @MikeBloomberg could be Tory candidate 4 London mayor (@karren_brady has also said she's interested)

    Bloomberg would be very interesting - he was a pretty effective mayor of NYC.

    But not going to happen for a million and one reasons.
    Is he even eligible?
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited April 2015
    notme said:

    The problem with politicians is they thing they are right, and that all right thinking people should also see things the way they do. If for some reason a voter disagrees, it is obviously because the voter doesnt understand the issue, and just needs it better explained.

    Or are morally a bad person. But actually the example you give can be more irritating to be on the receiving end of, or just feel the simplified, generic impact of on pronouncements and stock phrases.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715

    You didn't notice the rather unfortunate double entendre? Or is it just me?

  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    It is always very foolish to let these things fall into the hands of the press.

    Yet again the people around Miliband show themselves to not be up to the task.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited April 2015
    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG - EICIPM (just about)

    Not sure what ramping earlier was about

    Or has the Sunday Sun got another YG?

    I think the 'interesting' thing is that like all the other polls this w/e there is virtually no change. A nice bit of egg on the faces of the broadcasters.
    Yeah - don't often agree with Felix, but this is the Not Much Change election campaign so far. A bit of weakening of the big 2, though, which makes sense with everyone else getting exposure.

    Anecdote department: Canvassed one home today with grandparents unsure how to vote, despite being urged by their grandson (age about 8, I'd say) who (unlike them) had watched the whole debate and was urging them to back Ed. Reminded me of myself at that age...

    Finally met a LibDem non-switcher (in a ward held by two LD councillors) and said I respected his loyalty. He looked a bit nonplussed. But yes, that leaflet isn't one that I'd use.

  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715

    "Relish the chance to show who I am" - this is the man who claims not to care what people think of him. The man who doesn't care about his image.

    This is the man who writes himself little notes. Ah, how sweet!
    Don't like it when the sun gets personal,it back backfires.

  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    nigel4england said:

    SMukesh said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SMukesh said:

    It`s really bizarre.

    PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!

    Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.

    Thanks.
    I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.

    Can you point us to the link please.
    Since you ask nicely,I have posted an example.Check the thread on the 2nd April for the rest.

    trublue Posts: 12
    April 2
    Cameron was excellent. He took full advantage of the others going after his record to maximise his camera time, and was very prime ministerial in doing so. He was solid in defence, played good offence against Labour and UKIP and sat back and allowed Sturgeon to obliterate any hopes Labour had of turning the polls around in Scotland. Overall a very satisfying night for the blue team. I think The Sun have nailed it with their headline btw: Miliband has blown it, it's over
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Odd that academic cheerleader for UKIP Matthew Goodwin is pointing to (sounds like) flaws in the Comres poll re S Thanet.

    Was this not a UKIP internal poll then, if not whose is it?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited April 2015
    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    Quite. That is some seriously weak stuff. Even when a paper has chosen a firm stance for the GE period, they would be advised I think to wait for the better opportunities to go really big with it, and have holding pieces until then, rather than attempt to go big almost every day when it really cannot be justified. Dilutes the impact of the better opportunities.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2015
    Monksfield said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jonwalker121: Sunday Times reporting former NY Mayor @MikeBloomberg could be Tory candidate 4 London mayor (@karren_brady has also said she's interested)

    Bloomberg would be very interesting - he was a pretty effective mayor of NYC.

    But not going to happen for a million and one reasons.
    Is he even eligible?
    I have no idea. But the fact that he is American leaves just a million reasons...
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    It might be enough, according to what is on it.
    Ed has been spending tens of thousands of pounds on tutoring for the debates. So we can expect plenty of buzzwords and and debaty-motivational geeky junk
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715

    You didn't notice the rather unfortunate double entendre? Or is it just me?

    I noticed it, and I love smuttty innuendoes.

    I just wanted a story with more political impact
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Miliband's scrawl looks like he's a left hander.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SMukesh

    'PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!'

    The PB Kinnocks have been telling us how Ed won the debates & yet he's still behind in the latest YouGov, in Labour speak is this a deferred success?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    BenM said:

    Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.

    Dream on.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Mail story

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3025874/Nigel-Farage-buries-loser-poll-Ukip-leader-covers-survey-spelling-humiliating-defeat-Tories-Thanet-seat.html
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    NickPalmer said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG - EICIPM (just about)

    Not sure what ramping earlier was about

    Or has the Sunday Sun got another YG?

    I think the 'interesting' thing is that like all the other polls this w/e there is virtually no change. A nice bit of egg on the faces of the broadcasters.
    Yeah - don't often agree with Felix, but this is the Not Much Change election campaign so far. A bit of weakening of the big 2, though, which makes sense with everyone else getting exposure.

    Anecdote department: Canvassed one home today with grandparents unsure how to vote, despite being urged by their grandson (age about 8, I'd say) who (unlike them) had watched the whole debate and was urging them to back Ed. Reminded me of myself at that age...

    Finally met a LibDem non-switcher (in a ward held by two LD councillors) and said I respected his loyalty. He looked a bit nonplussed. But yes, that leaflet isn't one that I'd use.

    Is there one with a picture of Ed on that you would use?

    Or did Blair's blood money not run to that.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Betting post

    With the Tories ahead with both Ashcroft and Comres I think they represent cracking value in Thanet South @ 4-1 with Skybet.

    DYOR
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well it didn't live up to the hype

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715

    You didn't notice the rather unfortunate double entendre? Or is it just me?

    It's deliberate...

    *fetches smelling salts for Miss Carnyx*
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    Direction of travel suggests not.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Odd that academic cheerleader for UKIP Matthew Goodwin is pointing to (sounds like) flaws in the Comres poll re S Thanet.

    Was this not a UKIP internal poll then, if not whose is it?

    "On standard intention/asking voters to think about their seat Farage is ahead by five points"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ

    (I don't think Mr Goodwin much likes UKIP. He's a cheerleader for buying Mr Goodwin's book, rather than for UKIP.)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    john_zims said:

    @SMukesh

    'PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!'

    The PB Kinnocks have been telling us how Ed won the debates & yet he's still behind in the latest YouGov, in Labour speak is this a deferred success?

    If he would still likely be PM on those numbers, then probably, yes.
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Artist said:

    nigel4england said:

    TGOHF said:

    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.

    Of voting Labour?
    It'd very strange if Labour won it, it doesn't seem like a Labour type seat at all.
    They held it between 1997 and 2010
    It looks like a seat that should have bounced back in 2005, only losing by 3,000 in 1997. Such a poor record sounds like a poorly performing conservative party organisation pre 2010, or just a really good MP.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited April 2015
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    Direction of travel suggests not.
    Be careful with the constituency level polling, not enough has been done and probably too inaccurate to make any judgement about direction of travel.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Odd that academic cheerleader for UKIP Matthew Goodwin is pointing to (sounds like) flaws in the Comres poll re S Thanet.

    Was this not a UKIP internal poll then, if not whose is it?

    A Thanet South constituent on here thinks there were around 3 polling companies conducting polling several weeks ago.

    Do Labour use ComRes? As UKIP have been using Survation for an awful lot of their polling.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    nigel4england said:

    TGOHF said:

    The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.

    Of voting Labour?
    Of 'ugly nativism'.
  • rogerh
    rogerh Posts: 282
    YOU GOV S Times versus last weeks You gov Sunday times
    Con +2,Lab -3,Lib +2 UKIP =,Green -2.

    Some hope for LD's they were virtually invisible as part of the coalition and invisible since Xmas.The trick now is to make sure they get a good share of /regular media coverage from now through to the election.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.

    TPD Reckless was left with no choice but to do the same, that's a result I'm looking forward to on election night. Reckless and Salmond would be my two favourite 'moments'.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting post

    With the Tories ahead with both Ashcroft and Comres I think they represent cracking value in Thanet South @ 4-1 with Skybet.

    DYOR

    Farage wins Thanet South unless he's found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @kle4

    'Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.'

    Spot on, how long will the UKIP paymasters want to continue if they end up with one or two MP's ?
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    tlg86 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    So which of the Tories or Labour will be taking one for the team?
    It's in Farage's interest to keep the story going about it being a 3-way marginal, to reduce the tactical voting against him, especially from Lab.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.

    Dream on.
    Go on then. Where is it corroborated?!
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    Obviously leaked by Tom Baldwin!
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.

    Dream on.
    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.

    Dream on.
    Isn't that PB all over? polls that favour labour are extreme outliers but polls that favour the tories are absolutely really honest guv the gospel truth. Lol

    37% will still be a decent outcome for blue one month hence.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    What odds would anyone back the Lib Dems at in Thanet South by the way - I'm asking as I have a gaping chasm there, but what actually are the correct odds -

    10,000-1; 100,000-1; 1,000,000 to 1 ?

    What would people back and what would people lay...
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    I believe I've posted here before I'd vote Labour ahead of UKIP. Isam refused to believe me, where is he by the way?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betting post

    With the Tories ahead with both Ashcroft and Comres I think they represent cracking value in Thanet South @ 4-1 with Skybet.

    DYOR

    Farage wins Thanet South unless he's found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
    Quebec Effect/Buyers Remorse will kill him. I'd struggle to find 3s attractive on his chances.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    RobD said:

    felix said:

    The YG poll is surprisingly ok for the Tories.

    Was hoping for 38 ;)
    Despite the heroic actions of their crews in hot-air filled and appalling conditions, the land battleships hoping to crash through the lines of 38 have mostly broken down after initial good progress. Hard working mechanics are being recalled from leave by the telegraphs and we can only hope the assault is renewed.
    The enemy though have sunk into the muddy morass of 33. Veterans will tell you that falling wounded into the mud, laden with uncompetent equipment, can lead to disappearing altogether.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    BenM said:

    Go on then. Where is it corroborated?!

    36% on Comres phone, ICM, Ashcroft and Yougov recently, Opinium two weeks ago. 37 hardly constitutes an 'outlier'.

    N.B - those who backed UKIP-6 in Thanet S with me - cashout available at 60% to reduce losses until midnight on 10/4/15.


  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betting post

    With the Tories ahead with both Ashcroft and Comres I think they represent cracking value in Thanet South @ 4-1 with Skybet.

    DYOR

    Farage wins Thanet South unless he's found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
    Labour 6-1; Tories 4-1; UKIP 4-6.

    Take your pic, it's a 96% book at the moment.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    That leaflet will almost certainly make me want vote LD.
    There is an authoritarian, populist strand to the Labour party that was attracted to Maggie, and equally attracted to UKIP. That strand, if it still sits in Labour, will be attracted to that poster.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    What are the odds on Labour winning Thanet South ?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    One of those leaflets turned up, not addressed to me, but was for my wife. I don't think it will encourage her to lend them her vote. She wasn't impressed.

    I had a leaflet with a fetching photo of Ed with the local Labour candidate, and ambiguous wording about a straight choice...Oddly enough it made no reference to the LD incumbent.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    If anything I think Labour voters will be happier voting UKIP to give the Tories a black eye.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    surbiton said:

    What are the odds on Labour winning Thanet South ?

    6-1 Labour

    4-1 Tories

    4-6 UKIP

    Those can all be value at the moment.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
    Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    Better ugly politics than 'ugly nativism'?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
    Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
    I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    Yes, absolutely. I have Labour friends in UKIP areas who've told me that'll they'll vote Tory to stop UKIP. If it was me, I don't know if I could, but I know for sure that Labour card members will vote Tory to stop UKIP.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
    Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
    There are exactly 57 dead parrots in this government!
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    Never in a million years.

    In Thanet South, or other Coastal constituencies, you have left-wing voters who are anti-EU and anti-immigration. So, if they've given up on Labour, who do they vote for? That's not hard to answer.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Go on then. Where is it corroborated?!

    36% on Comres phone, ICM, Ashcroft and Yougov recently, Opinium two weeks ago. 37 hardly constitutes an 'outlier'.

    N.B - those who backed UKIP-6 in Thanet S with me - cashout available at 60% to reduce losses until midnight on 10/4/15.


    @Chestnut, the bet is cons +6 not Ukip -6 and you can double up with @Isam if you like.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    Never in a million years.

    In Thanet South, or other Coastal constituencies, you have left-wing voters who are anti-EU and anti-immigration. So, if they've given up on Labour, who do they vote for? That's not hard to answer.
    As I mentioned earlier, Maggie appealed to a section of Labour's traditional base, which'll be attracted to UKIP (and to this kind of leaflet).

  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Is this Daily Mail poll one that was done at the beginning of March? A month is a long time in politics.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    oxfordsimon said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    It is always very foolish to let these things fall into the hands of the press.

    Yet again the people around Miliband show themselves to not be up to the task.
    Yes - who should Miliband blame for letting him appoint these people...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153699696699018&set=p.10153699696699018&type=1&theater

    Scottish Labour "For Sale" in Ayr :D
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Flightpath said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding

    Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation

    Is that it ?

    It is always very foolish to let these things fall into the hands of the press.

    Yet again the people around Miliband show themselves to not be up to the task.
    Yes - who should Miliband blame for letting him appoint these people...
    Thatcher - obvs
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    weejonnie said:

    Is this Daily Mail poll one that was done at the beginning of March? A month is a long time in politics.

    It was carried out 13th - 18th of March
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11515477/Conservative-candidates-four-way-love-split-adds-to-voter-confusion.html

    This will increase her majority !
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    surbiton said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11515477/Conservative-candidates-four-way-love-split-adds-to-voter-confusion.html

    This will increase her majority !

    :-)
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Tracey Crouch is a bit of a rebel.She would be a natural in Labour
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:


    @Chestnut, the bet is cons +6 not Ukip -6 and you can double up with @Isam if you like.

    Cons +6.5 in my case if I've noted it properly - straight fight between Con and UKIP. Labour uninvolved.

  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
    Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
    I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
    'I'm sorry ... Would it really make it easier for you if we settled on just one number?.'
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was a ComRes poll

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528

    Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
    And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
    Or win it.

    The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.

    It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
    I believe I've posted here before I'd vote Labour ahead of UKIP. Isam refused to believe me, where is he by the way?
    From reading other people's posts I think he's been shown the door, but not certain.
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    Labour's leaflet is really dumb because the LD drugs policy is far more popular than the LDs are - plenty of Labour folk who support a change. Lab suffer from a superiority complex with the Lib Dems, and have never shown they understand much about what motivates LD voters.

    If I lived in Thanet S ( as solid LD) I'd have a dilemma. If Laura Sandys was re-standing I'd vote for her without hesitation. But McKinley is not my cup of tea at all, and definitely not worth a tactical vote to stop Farage. Are there enough people like me for the Tories to have blown it with the wrong candidate? I'd probably vote Al Murray actually; with so many comedy candidates might as well go for the funniest.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    The Lib Dem Councillor across the road from me reposted a very nasty comment about UKIP on our closed community group.

    Also took time out to criticise Labour over tuition fees.


    I bit my tongue :-)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'

    What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.

    Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
    Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
    Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
    Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
    I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
    'I'm sorry ... Would it really make it easier for you if we settled on just one number?.'
    You will have to forgive me, perhaps I am being slow tonight, but I am still confused. I mentioned I admired Carswell's going for a by-election when he didn't have to and hope that precedent continues with others in the future. You then respond with a comment about Farage being programmed?
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