From comments on Twitter as to the "expectation" that the best time to smear is the start of a holiday or weekend, I suspect the SNP were staying up late on Friday night ready to destroy an expected smear at the start of the 4 day weekend.
Maybe Labour or the Liberals should have fact checked that Good Friday isn't a bank holiday in Scotland.
The trajectory of the polls strongly suggests a Conservative majority is a big chance. Betting markets are starting to move in that direction too. Certainly all the momentum is with Dave and George in this campaign. The Sun have also got their hands on a delicious EM story this morning to further move people in the RIGHT direction.
I don't think the tories could have wished for a better start to this campaign to be honest. But nobody will be taking anything for granted and there's still a long way to go.
The trajectory of the polls strongly suggests a Conservative majority is a big chance. Betting markets are starting to move in that direction too. Certainly all the momentum is with Dave and George in this campaign. The Sun have also got their hands on a delicious EM story this morning to further move people in the RIGHT direction.
I don't think the tories could have wished for a better start to this campaign to be honest. But nobody will be taking anything for granted and there's still a long way to go.
I like to think the Tories set their wishes higher than two dead-heat TV events and pretty much dead-heat polls. Things could be going worse for them, but also better.
From comments on Twitter as to the "expectation" that the best time to smear is the start of a holiday or weekend, I suspect the SNP were staying up late on Friday night ready to destroy an expected smear at the start of the 4 day weekend.
Maybe Labour or the Liberals should have fact checked that Good Friday isn't a bank holiday in Scotland.
Quite a nice Twitterstorm between Louise Mensch and James Cook. Cook got no legs to stand on - he's was one of the two journos to fact check the Sturgeon lie but has spent 24hrs reporting it as if it's not a lie. Poor journalism.
Trublue There is virtually zero chance of a Tory majority, for which they would need a 7% lead, they are only 1% ahead tonight, most likely outcome remains a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply in my view, had the Tories backed AV and got UKIP preferences that may have been a possibility, but not under FPTP with no boundary changes and a split on the right
The trajectory of the polls strongly suggests a Conservative majority is a big chance. Betting markets are starting to move in that direction too. Certainly all the momentum is with Dave and George in this campaign. The Sun have also got their hands on a delicious EM story this morning to further move people in the RIGHT direction.
I don't think the tories could have wished for a better start to this campaign to be honest. But nobody will be taking anything for granted and there's still a long way to go.
I agree, although it may not be saying much. Previous Tory starts (as I remember - or try to forget - them) were terrible. Best thing for them at the moment is to give Labour money to produce more posters. Early days though... Tories need to convert possession into points.
Re French letters, the most obvious LD motive would not be to save two or three seats, but to save several Labour seats, making make a Lab-LD coalition more viable, and improving negotiating position regardless of whether they'd actually prefer Con or Lab.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
'I'm sorry ... Would it really make it easier for you if we settled on just one number?.'
You will have to forgive me, perhaps I am being slow tonight, but I am still confused. I mentioned I admired Carswell's going for a by-election when he didn't have to and hope that precedent continues with others in the future. You then respond with a comment about Farage being programmed?
Yes not your fault in the circumstances that I was looking upthread at the 'show other comments'.
Trublue There is virtually zero chance of a Tory majority, for which they would need a 7% lead, they are only 1% ahead tonight, most likely outcome remains a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply in my view, had the Tories backed AV and got UKIP preferences that may have been a possibility, but not under FPTP with no boundary changes and a split on the right
Sheffield Hallam could decide between Tory/LD/DUP and Labour/SNP deals.
Quite a nice Twitterstorm between Louise Mensch and James Cook. Cook got no legs to stand on - he's was one of the two journos to fact check the Sturgeon lie but has spent 24hrs reporting it as if it's not a lie. Poor journalism.
Trublue There is virtually zero chance of a Tory majority, for which they would need a 7% lead, they are only 1% ahead tonight, most likely outcome remains a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply in my view, had the Tories backed AV and got UKIP preferences that may have been a possibility, but not under FPTP with no boundary changes and a split on the right
Sheffield Hallam could decide between Tory/LD/DUP and Labour/SNP deals.
SNP win both ways.
I'm staying Long Clegg as I reckon a Labh Gov't much more likely if he is out.
Re French letters, the most obvious LD motive would not be to save two or three seats, but to save several Labour seats, making make a Lab-LD coalition more viable, and improving negotiating position regardless of whether they'd actually prefer Con or Lab.
There's no reason to believe that there was no collusion between the two. At least in Scotland they are very close and formed the Scottish Government in Coalition for 8 years.
It comes down to which one will throw the other under the bus first.
So no one excited by the prospect of a very first Tory lead in ELBOW?
Hell Yeah!
(And what the heck are you doing posting on here, you're on holiday - Also did your elbow see yesterday's Survation poll?)
Um, I got withdrawal symptoms, coupled with free Wifi at the hotel
Yes, I got Survation in there! Just need the YG tables to confirm a Tory lead of 0.5% (which is what I get plugging in an estimated YG voting sample of 1400).
My memory admittedly frail is that Farage was saying some time back that he would publish these polls because they would show how strong he was. The problems for UKIP is two fold 1 - they covered up a poll - where previously they had been happy to publish an earlier one. 2 - the poll can only encouragve Labour and as such it can only energise the tory vote.
Dair No as the LDs have said they will back the largest party regardless of whether Clegg holds his seat or not. If after all the hype the SNP fail to control the government and Labour get a more presentable electable leader if Cameron remains PM that is no triumph for them, in fact ironically it would be the DUP who have the last laugh and hold the balance of power not the Scottish nationalists
Dair No as the LDs have said they will back the largest party regardless of whether Clegg holds his seat or not. If after all the hype the SNP fail to control the government and Labour get a more presentable electable leader if Cameron remains PM that is no triumph for them, in fact ironically it would be the DUP who have the last laugh and hold the balance of power not the Scottish nationalists
There;s absolutely no chance that a Farron led LD group will support the Tories. None. The best the Tories can hope for is that the LDs decide to abstain from budgets and confidence and state they will do so. Effectively lowering the bar for the Tories to about 315 seats.
315 with 10 DUP and 3 Kippers is still a huge challenge for Cameron.
Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
Scotslass Not much different from recent polls, and Labour at 29% is at the higher end of their recent polling, even coming off a better result for them last time
Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
How honest are people replying to party canvassers?
Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
Scottish Labour have about 20 to 40 activists per constituency. They don't have meaningful canvass results. They don't have a meaningful ground game. They don't have a snowflakes chance in hell.
Dair Asssuming Farron were to lead the LDs, a big if, the LDs from the likes of Ed Davey up have made clear they will back the largest party on a confidence and supply basis, and given any LDs reelected will already have backed the coalition that is not much change, it does mean Cameron and Osborne will need to consider LD and DUP views, maybe even UKIP too on some legislation
Scotslass Not much different from recent polls, and Labour at 29% is at the higher end of their recent polling, even coming off a better result for them last time
It's actually a significant swing with this pollster.
Previously all the pollsters have pretty much found their results to be the same since October. There has been variance between each pollster but the individual results have been roughly the same through the entire 6 months.
This is the largest movement by a single pollster in the entire campaign. And it's a 4% swing to the SNP.
"Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals" This would be true if these voters were all liberal guardian reading types. They are not. Their most popular paper is the Daily Mail. This line of attack will pull/retain some of the voters and will repel others. Since there are far more LD 2010 voter reading the Mail than the Giuardian it is probably smart politics by Labour.
FROM UK POLLING REPORT Panelbase/Times (Scotland) SNP 47 (+6) CON 14 (=) LAB 29 (-2) From Sunday Times Scotland Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
How honest are people replying to party canvassers?
I would rank it in the 85% level where there is a strong clear preference. It is the probable/possibles where there is more doubt. If there are historical records then you can compare one indication with another and overlay it with the exit data from the actual election boxes opened at the count to see if within each district your canvass was accurate or not.
Dair Asssuming Farron were to lead the LDs, a big if, the LDs from the likes of Ed Davey up have made clear they will back the largest party on a confidence and supply basis, and given any LDs reelected will already have backed the coalition that is not much change, it does mean Cameron and Osborne will need to consider LD and DUP views, maybe even UKIP too on some legislation
Meh, forget the Lib dems.
Let's concentrate on the most significant Scottish poll since October. The first to show movement in an individual pollsters results. And it's 4% swing to SNP.
From Sunday Times Scotland Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
We know from past Scottish by elections that SLAB election data is typically very inadequate. They will be flying blind in Scotland in most of their seats. This is acaused by their bone idle incumbent MPs and paid staff. Just ask NickMP for his experiences north of the border. It will be a just reward if 200 of them are rendered unemployed.
Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
How honest are people replying to party canvassers?
Dishonesty is factored in and accounted for, as it is at every election. The only issue could be that politeness on the doorstep from people who are not going to support you this time, as the continental plates shift, might mask the true awfulness of it (think Cons 1997. Everyone knew it was bad, but it was much worse than canvassing showed)
When a Labour canvasser knocks on your door, and you are going to vote labour, even when it might involve holding your nose, you get ordinarily an honest answer. Same for other parties. If you are a Tory, and you knock on a Conservative door, you get the response.
This tally of people who are safely on your side will be the ones that are changing. You can never really trust those people who tell you who they are voting for instead, or they havent decided.
If you come across voters who said they were Labour when canvassed in 2010, but now undecided, you are in serious trouble.
The move to SNP seems so strong though, that Labour will be picking up huge numbers of people down as Labour actually telling canvassers they are now SNP.
"Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals" This would be true if these voters were all liberal guardian reading types. They are not. Their most popular paper is the Daily Mail. This line of attack will pull/retain some of the voters and will repel others. Since there are far more LD 2010 voter reading the Mail than the Giuardian it is probably smart politics by Labour.
I don't think so. The Lib Dem switchers are mostly granola eating, Guardian reading, sandal wearing public sector workers who are ideologically to the left of Labour and voted Lib Dem because of Iraq. I highly doubt this group will be in favour of tougher drug laws and tougher policing. If this was a play to win back voters from UKIP then maybe it would work, but this group of Lib Dems are not going to be won back this way.
No this is compared with their last poll in mid January and represents a four per cent swing which is statistically significant. The NATS would wipe out all of the Liberals and the Tories and take 47 seats in all. I would say that is interesting wouldn't you?
Dair No if it is 45% that is pretty much what SNP have been polling for months, and, surprise surprise, exactly the level of Yes support in the referendum, unionist parties need to start voting tactically
From Sunday Times Scotland Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
We know from past Scottish by elections that SLAB election data is typically very inadequate. They will be flying blind in Scotland in most of their seats. This is acaused by their bone idle incumbent MPs and paid staff. Just ask NickMP for his experiences north of the border. It will be a just reward if 200 of them are rendered unemployed.
Absolutely. But in other constituencies, especially ones in which they've recently had by elections or close fights with the SNP, theyll have pretty detailed canvassing records, and they can extrapolate from there.
Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed.
Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls.
Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
"Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals" This would be true if these voters were all liberal guardian reading types. They are not. Their most popular paper is the Daily Mail. This line of attack will pull/retain some of the voters and will repel others. Since there are far more LD 2010 voter reading the Mail than the Giuardian it is probably smart politics by Labour.
I don't think so. The Lib Dem switchers are mostly granola eating, Guardian reading, sandal wearing public sector workers who are ideologically to the left of Labour and voted Lib Dem because of Iraq. I highly doubt this group will be in favour of tougher drug laws and tougher policing. If this was a play to win back voters from UKIP then maybe it would work, but this group of Lib Dems are not going to be won back this way.
There are frankly not enough of these types. Guardian only sells 200k copies a day to all readers. Half of the GE 2010 LDs were eurosceptic. It was the NOTA voters. This type of Labour leaflet is a squeeze one which has had a lot of success in the past against the LDs.
Dair No if it is 45% that is pretty much what SNP have been polling for months, and, surprise surprise, exactly the level of Yes support in the referendum, unionist parties need to start voting tactically
Non politics/betting question.
I've often wondered about reading the Flashman novels. Are they any good - I mean do they stand up and are readable today or are they much like watching a Confessions Of... movie?
I now have the ST. Haven't bought it for years. It is indeed 45% and a three per cent swing to the NATS. However paper leads on fact that such a swing would see the NATS take the last Tory seat.
Scottslass The last Panelbase if I remember was relatively bad for the SNP, this is a return to the norm, 45% exactly the Yes vote, as for the SNP toppling David Mundell in the Borders and taking every LD seat, more hope than expectation on their part
Scottslass The last Panelbase if I remember was relatively bad for the SNP, this is a return to the norm, 45% exactly the Yes vote, as for the SNP toppling David Mundell in the Borders and taking every LD seat, more hope than expectation on their part
The last Panelbase/Sunday Times poll was bad for the SNP because it didn't ask VI first
Absolutely. But in other constituencies, especially ones in which they've recently had by elections or close fights with the SNP, theyll have pretty detailed canvassing records, and they can extrapolate from there.
Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed.
Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls.
Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
Inverclyde is a 50% Yes vote. It's SNP 100%.
You wrote : - Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
You can't backtrack now. There haven't been enough by elections and close fights with the SNP. You don't have the activists. You can't bus people up from England as they are fighting their own battles down there.
Labour are sunk, finished. Sturgeon has shrugged off the BIG SMEAR of the campaign - the one launched on the 4 day weekend to try and catch the SNP off guard but didn't seem to realise Good Friday isn't a holiday in Scotland and there isn't a 4 day weekend.
I'm sure you will have more throws of the dice. But this was one of the big ones. It hasn't worked. But Nicola's performance on Thursday HAS worked. A poll has moved, in favour of the SNP.
ALMOST half of British voters would rather the general election be rerun than have a deal between Labour and the SNP that would force Ed Miliband to give in to key nationalist demands, according to a new poll.
In total 48% favour a fresh election if the price of an SNP deal is cutting austerity moves and raising tax, while 28% would support such a concession and 24% are unsure. In addition, 40% support a new vote if a deal kills off plans to replace the Trident nuclear deterrent, while 26% would go along with the concession and 34% are unsure
If the “don’t knows” are excluded, the level of opposition is higher, with 60% of those who expressed a preference wishing Miliband to go back to the polls if the price of support from the SNP is scrapping the renewal of Trident.
Furthermore, 63% who voiced a preference felt the same way about concessions that would lead to a reduction in austerity measures and higher taxes.
If the Tories win more seats than Labour but do not have an overall majority, and Labour and the SNP combined would command a majority, 39% of those with a view favour the Conservatives continuing in government as a minority, while 33% would prefer a Labour/SNP coalition and 28% would want another election to be held.
There appears to be substantial opposition in England to more powers being devolved to the Scottish parliament. Of those with a view, 52% would support further devolution as a condition of a deal, while 48% are opposed.
From Sunday Times Scotland Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
We know from past Scottish by elections that SLAB election data is typically very inadequate. They will be flying blind in Scotland in most of their seats. This is acaused by their bone idle incumbent MPs and paid staff. Just ask NickMP for his experiences north of the border. It will be a just reward if 200 of them are rendered unemployed.
Absolutely. But in other constituencies, especially ones in which they've recently had by elections or close fights with the SNP, theyll have pretty detailed canvassing records, and they can extrapolate from there. Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed. Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls. Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
They will have some idea but not specific enough data on a ward by ward basis across all the seats they are trying to save in Scotland. They needed to rebuild from at least two years ago from the summer of 2013 but they have not invested the manpower it requires nor re-built their volunteer base. They are probably being out manned by the SNP by at least 5:1 and in some places 10:1.
They will have some idea but not specific enough data on a ward by ward basis across all the seats they are trying to save in Scotland. They needed to rebuild from at least two years ago from the summer of 2013 but they have not invested the manpower it requires nor re-built their volunteer base. They are probably being out manned by the SNP by at least 5:1 and in some places 10:1.
On a ward by ward basis we have some very encouraging results for the SNP. Especially in rock solid Labour seats like Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes.
ALMOST half of British voters would rather the general election be rerun than have a deal between Labour and the SNP that would force Ed Miliband to give in to key nationalist demands, according to a new poll.
In total 48% favour a fresh election if the price of an SNP deal is cutting austerity moves and raising tax, while 28% would support such a concession and 24% are unsure. In addition, 40% support a new vote if a deal kills off plans to replace the Trident nuclear deterrent, while 26% would go along with the concession and 34% are unsure
If the “don’t knows” are excluded, the level of opposition is higher, with 60% of those who expressed a preference wishing Miliband to go back to the polls if the price of support from the SNP is scrapping the renewal of Trident.
Furthermore, 63% who voiced a preference felt the same way about concessions that would lead to a reduction in austerity measures and higher taxes.
If the Tories win more seats than Labour but do not have an overall majority, and Labour and the SNP combined would command a majority, 39% of those with a view favour the Conservatives continuing in government as a minority, while 33% would prefer a Labour/SNP coalition and 28% would want another election to be held.
There appears to be substantial opposition in England to more powers being devolved to the Scottish parliament. Of those with a view, 52% would support further devolution as a condition of a deal, while 48% are opposed.
Quite sure about 50% of the 2010 Lib Dems wish they could rerun the 2010 GE too.
After the GE its in the hands of hte politicians, the public get their say on May 7th. May 8th is time for the smoke filled rooms.
This is the problem. The Unionist voice is running into its own brick wall. They can't tell England that the Union works because for 30 years Scotland has paid more into the UK than it got back. They can't back down on Austerity and explain it was just a way of pumping £300bn into the pockets of the UK's wealthiest citizens as Labour are part of this system. They can't explain that coalition is the normal way of government in democracies because they've spent hundreds of years defending a biased system for "strong government".
This is the problem. The Unionist voice is running into its own brick wall. They can't tell England that the Union works because for 30 years Scotland has paid more into the UK than it got back. They can't back down on Austerity and explain it was just a way of pumping £300bn into the pockets of the UK's wealthiest citizens as Labour are part of this system. They can't explain that coalition is the normal way of government in democracies because they've spent hundreds of years defending a biased system for "strong government".
They are stuck in a midden of their own making.
The 80s offshore GERS figures are pretty revealing. At the time it was all about the miners/poll tax vs Thatcher. Oil revenue off the East coast of Scotland was the dog that didn't bark.
42% of SNP voters thinking it “matters a lot” compared with 64% of Con and Lab supporters. Curtice said the finding “helps explain why ‘vote Nicola, get Dave’ is not a very effective rallying call for Labour”.
They will have some idea but not specific enough data on a ward by ward basis across all the seats they are trying to save in Scotland. They needed to rebuild from at least two years ago from the summer of 2013 but they have not invested the manpower it requires nor re-built their volunteer base. They are probably being out manned by the SNP by at least 5:1 and in some places 10:1.
On a ward by ward basis we have some very encouraging results for the SNP. Especially in rock solid Labour seats like Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes.
Is this first time canvassing, or are there historical records? A single canvass can be susceptible to inaccuracy without a baseline, and with new inexperienced activists.
I am philosophical about what is now being called Project Smear or Frenchgate. I think Ed Milliblands behaviour on Saturday and that of the Labour Party generally demonstrates that he is indeed not PM material. It is going to backfire on them if it isn't already doing so. I haven't been at the whisky either. I have been doing my take my mother and her cronies to their Saturday night bingo at the local bowling club. If the reaction there is anything to go by then the Labour Party in particular has shot itself in the head with some lifelong Labour voters. Even the old Tories are appalled at the behaviour of the British Press and Media, it offends their sense of decency and yes British fair play. I met several pensioners who voted No who never voted SNP in their lives will now be voting SNP, well done to the British Press and Media.
Absolutely. But in other constituencies, especially ones in which they've recently had by elections or close fights with the SNP, theyll have pretty detailed canvassing records, and they can extrapolate from there.
Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed.
Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls.
Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
Inverclyde is a 50% Yes vote. It's SNP 100%.
You wrote : - Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
You can't backtrack now. There haven't been enough by elections and close fights with the SNP. You don't have the activists. You can't bus people up from England as they are fighting their own battles down there.
Labour are sunk, finished. Sturgeon has shrugged off the BIG SMEAR of the campaign - the one launched on the 4 day weekend to try and catch the SNP off guard but didn't seem to realise Good Friday isn't a holiday in Scotland and there isn't a 4 day weekend.
I'm sure you will have more throws of the dice. But this was one of the big ones. It hasn't worked. But Nicola's performance on Thursday HAS worked. A poll has moved, in favour of the SNP.
You say 'you', i am not a supporter of the Labour party, I am a unionist though. As are the majority of Scots.
This is the problem. The Unionist voice is running into its own brick wall. They can't tell England that the Union works because for 30 years Scotland has paid more into the UK than it got back. They can't back down on Austerity and explain it was just a way of pumping £300bn into the pockets of the UK's wealthiest citizens as Labour are part of this system. They can't explain that coalition is the normal way of government in democracies because they've spent hundreds of years defending a biased system for "strong government".
They are stuck in a midden of their own making.
The 80s offshore GERS figures are pretty revealing. At the time it was all about the miners/poll tax vs Thatcher. Oil revenue off the East coast of Scotland was the dog that didn't bark.
Remember GERS figures need to be adjusted for UK Debt Interest and UK Infrastructure Spending (Which is almost entirely London). It wasn't just the 80s.
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
How honest are people replying to party canvassers?
I've done some research on that over the years, including in non-marginal seats some direct comparison of promises on election day with knockers-up from other parties. My impression from that is that outright lies are rare (<5%) - people don't in general promise to vote for you while planning to vote for someone else, so the knock-up lists have almost nobody in common.
But evasion is commonplace - "I'm thinking about it", "Not sure yet", "I'll certainly be voting", etc. Inexperienced canvassers often draw false conclusions from a smile or imprecise wording. Experienced canvassers can elicit more about half the time by polite/jovial follow-ups ("Who are you uncertain between?" "Are you pretty sure you won't vote for us, eh?") but sometimes the door just shuts. As a rule of thumb I usually estimate that "won't say" voters are 90% going to vote for someone else, and "don't knows" split about 2 againsts to 2 won't vote to 1 for.
What is really reliable is comparing swings in responses from the same people over time. If you've got a decent-sized data set, it generally predicts results very accurately. People are consistent truth-tellers or consistent liars, and if 5% say they've switched, that probably means a genuine 4-6% change. So generally yes, where parties have good past data, I think we roughly know the score: it's why I'm confident in my own patch. Where we haven't (=many safe seats), we're flying blind.
I am philosophical about what is now being called Project Smear or Frenchgate. I think Ed Milliblands behaviour on Saturday and that of the Labour Party generally demonstrates that he is indeed not PM material. It is going to backfire on them if it isn't already doing so. I haven't been at the whisky either. I have been doing my take my mother and her cronies to their Saturday night bingo at the local bowling club. If the reaction there is anything to go by then the Labour Party in particular has shot itself in the head with some lifelong Labour voters. Even the old Tories are appalled at the behaviour of the British Press and Media, it offends their sense of decency and yes British fair play. I met several pensioners who voted No who never voted SNP in their lives will now be voting SNP, well done to the British Press and Media.
I'd love it if McSmear has flushed Murphy's seat down the toilet, there'd be some poetic justice in that.
So generally yes, where parties have good past data, I think we roughly know the score: it's why I'm confident in my own patch. Where we haven't (=Scotland), we're flying blind.
Absolutely. But in other constituencies, especially ones in which they've recently had by elections or close fights with the SNP, theyll have pretty detailed canvassing records, and they can extrapolate from there.
Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed.
Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls.
Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
Inverclyde is a 50% Yes vote. It's SNP 100%.
You wrote : - Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
You can't backtrack now. There haven't been enough by elections and close fights with the SNP. You don't have the activists. You can't bus people up from England as they are fighting their own battles down there.
Labour are sunk, finished. Sturgeon has shrugged off the BIG SMEAR of the campaign - the one launched on the 4 day weekend to try and catch the SNP off guard but didn't seem to realise Good Friday isn't a holiday in Scotland and there isn't a 4 day weekend.
I'm sure you will have more throws of the dice. But this was one of the big ones. It hasn't worked. But Nicola's performance on Thursday HAS worked. A poll has moved, in favour of the SNP.
I think quite a few folk didn't realise that Good Friday isn't a holiday Scotland and I myself will be working on Monday as will many other Scots, no holiday for me.
They will have some idea but not specific enough data on a ward by ward basis across all the seats they are trying to save in Scotland. They needed to rebuild from at least two years ago from the summer of 2013 but they have not invested the manpower it requires nor re-built their volunteer base. They are probably being out manned by the SNP by at least 5:1 and in some places 10:1.
On a ward by ward basis we have some very encouraging results for the SNP. Especially in rock solid Labour seats like Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes.
Is this first time canvassing, or are there historical records? A single canvass can be susceptible to inaccuracy without a baseline, and with new inexperienced activists.
no, dummy.
It's based on ACTUAL votes - council by-elections. Labour are being destroyed and the SNP are polling 55% to 60% in actual, real elections.
Why are the parties leaving it so late to get their manifestos out? We are less than 3 weeks away from the time postal votes representing 1/4 to 1/2 of the votes in each seat turn up. Not getting your key messages across is like doing business without communicating what the offer is. In this age of postal votes it is strange that the main 3 parties have not woken up to this.
I am philosophical about what is now being called Project Smear or Frenchgate. I think Ed Milliblands behaviour on Saturday and that of the Labour Party generally demonstrates that he is indeed not PM material. It is going to backfire on them if it isn't already doing so. I haven't been at the whisky either. I have been doing my take my mother and her cronies to their Saturday night bingo at the local bowling club. If the reaction there is anything to go by then the Labour Party in particular has shot itself in the head with some lifelong Labour voters. Even the old Tories are appalled at the behaviour of the British Press and Media, it offends their sense of decency and yes British fair play. I met several pensioners who voted No who never voted SNP in their lives will now be voting SNP, well done to the British Press and Media.
There were too many English Labour party members tweeting that they were resigning from the Party for this to be anything but a disaster for Labour.
Why are the parties leaving it so late to get their manifestos out? We are less than 3 weeks away from the time postal votes representing 1/4 to 1/2 of the votes in each seat turn up. Not getting your key messages across is like doing business without communicating what the offer is. In this age of postal votes it is strange that the main 3 parties have not woken up to this.
Closing date for postal votes is still 2 weeks away - so they won't be going out until after that. Time enough for the manifestos I would say
So generally yes, where parties have good past data, I think we roughly know the score: it's why I'm confident in my own patch. Where we haven't (=Scotland), we're flying blind.
Fixed for you
Most likely any constituency with a 10,000 majority or greater, is unlikely to have strong canvassing records outside of the odd marginals council ward in the constituency.
I bet there are constituencies in the north east that havent been properly canvassed since Kinnock.
"I've often wondered about reading the Flashman novels. Are they any good - I mean do they stand up and are readable today or are they much like watching a Confessions Of... movie?"
Yes, they are very good and they stand the test of time and are best read in chronological order rather than the order they were published. However, judging from your posts on here I don't think you would enjoy them.
They will have some idea but not specific enough data on a ward by ward basis across all the seats they are trying to save in Scotland. They needed to rebuild from at least two years ago from the summer of 2013 but they have not invested the manpower it requires nor re-built their volunteer base. They are probably being out manned by the SNP by at least 5:1 and in some places 10:1.
On a ward by ward basis we have some very encouraging results for the SNP. Especially in rock solid Labour seats like Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes.
Is this first time canvassing, or are there historical records? A single canvass can be susceptible to inaccuracy without a baseline, and with new inexperienced activists.
no, dummy.
It's based on ACTUAL votes - council by-elections. Labour are being destroyed and the SNP are polling 55% to 60% in actual, real elections.
In the safest Labour Seats in Scotland.
Actual votes arent that accurate... Unless a high turnout. If local elections and european elections were a barometer for success, William Hague would have become Prime Minister in 2001.
Comments
50
Maybe Labour or the Liberals should have fact checked that Good Friday isn't a bank holiday in Scotland.
I don't think the tories could have wished for a better start to this campaign to be honest. But nobody will be taking anything for granted and there's still a long way to go.
(And what the heck are you doing posting on here, you're on holiday - Also did your elbow see yesterday's Survation poll?)
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Sunday Herald front page:
Project Smear
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #scotpapers #ge2015 pic.twitter.com/Fnj1owKHMp
Early days though... Tories need to convert possession into points.
Lunacy, but I'll buy no further.
SNP win both ways.
It comes down to which one will throw the other under the bus first.
Yes, I got Survation in there! Just need the YG tables to confirm a Tory lead of 0.5% (which is what I get plugging in an estimated YG voting sample of 1400).
The problems for UKIP is two fold
1 - they covered up a poll - where previously they had been happy to publish an earlier one.
2 - the poll can only encouragve Labour and as such it can only energise the tory vote.
Panelbase/Times (Scotland)
SNP 47 (+6)
CON 14 (=)
LAB 29 (-2)
From Sunday Times Scotland
Game set and match to the NATS. Mind you it indicates that the blind panic which has led to the Westminster dirty tricks initiative is well justified.
315 with 10 DUP and 3 Kippers is still a huge challenge for Cameron.
BOOM!
BOOM!
Previously all the pollsters have pretty much found their results to be the same since October. There has been variance between each pollster but the individual results have been roughly the same through the entire 6 months.
This is the largest movement by a single pollster in the entire campaign. And it's a 4% swing to the SNP.
This would be true if these voters were all liberal guardian reading types. They are not. Their most popular paper is the Daily Mail. This line of attack will pull/retain some of the voters and will repel others. Since there are far more LD 2010 voter reading the Mail than the Giuardian it is probably smart politics by Labour.
Let's concentrate on the most significant Scottish poll since October. The first to show movement in an individual pollsters results. And it's 4% swing to SNP.
It will be a just reward if 200 of them are rendered unemployed.
When a Labour canvasser knocks on your door, and you are going to vote labour, even when it might involve holding your nose, you get ordinarily an honest answer. Same for other parties. If you are a Tory, and you knock on a Conservative door, you get the response.
This tally of people who are safely on your side will be the ones that are changing. You can never really trust those people who tell you who they are voting for instead, or they havent decided.
If you come across voters who said they were Labour when canvassed in 2010, but now undecided, you are in serious trouble.
The move to SNP seems so strong though, that Labour will be picking up huge numbers of people down as Labour actually telling canvassers they are now SNP.
Women now believe the Conservative party has the best chance of winning the general election, new ICM Wisdom Index poll reveals
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11516339/Boost-for-Tories-hopes-as-women-pick-party-as-most-likely-winner.html
Unmentionable site now says its 45% SNP not 47%. It's still a 3% swing, a huge swing beyond MoE and the most significant Scottish poll since October.
IPSOS MORI of 55% SNP has to be soon.
Doesn't Ben Elton now live full time in Australia?
EICINPIPM
No this is compared with their last poll in mid January and represents a four per cent swing which is statistically significant. The NATS would wipe out all of the Liberals and the Tories and take 47 seats in all. I would say that is interesting wouldn't you?
Inverclyde looks like a good example. An ordinarily stonking safe labour seat, in which the SNP seemed to have made good ground, but still well short of what was needed.
Theyll be able to see voter for voter changes on the ground there. Its the kind of seat which looks like it would be going SNP on a very good night for Labour based on current polls.
Labour will absolutely know how bad it is from pockets like this.
I've often wondered about reading the Flashman novels. Are they any good - I mean do they stand up and are readable today or are they much like watching a Confessions Of... movie?
You wrote : -
Labour will have hundreds of thousands of canvassing results over the last few months, they will know the truth, they will have contacts which are comparable and will be able to determine swings in every constituency.
You can't backtrack now. There haven't been enough by elections and close fights with the SNP. You don't have the activists. You can't bus people up from England as they are fighting their own battles down there.
Labour are sunk, finished. Sturgeon has shrugged off the BIG SMEAR of the campaign - the one launched on the 4 day weekend to try and catch the SNP off guard but didn't seem to realise Good Friday isn't a holiday in Scotland and there isn't a 4 day weekend.
I'm sure you will have more throws of the dice. But this was one of the big ones. It hasn't worked. But Nicola's performance on Thursday HAS worked. A poll has moved, in favour of the SNP.
ALMOST half of British voters would rather the general election be rerun than have a deal between Labour and the SNP that would force Ed Miliband to give in to key nationalist demands, according to a new poll.
In total 48% favour a fresh election if the price of an SNP deal is cutting austerity moves and raising tax, while 28% would support such a concession and 24% are unsure. In addition, 40% support a new vote if a deal kills off plans to replace the Trident nuclear deterrent, while 26% would go along with the concession and 34% are unsure
If the “don’t knows” are excluded, the level of opposition is higher, with 60% of those who expressed a preference wishing Miliband to go back to the polls if the price of support from the SNP is scrapping the renewal of Trident.
Furthermore, 63% who voiced a preference felt the same way about concessions that would lead to a reduction in austerity measures and higher taxes.
If the Tories win more seats than Labour but do not have an overall majority, and Labour and the SNP combined would command a majority, 39% of those with a view favour the Conservatives continuing in government as a minority, while 33% would prefer a Labour/SNP coalition and 28% would want another election to be held.
There appears to be substantial opposition in England to more powers being devolved to the Scottish parliament. Of those with a view, 52% would support further devolution as a condition of a deal, while 48% are opposed.
After the GE its in the hands of hte politicians, the public get their say on May 7th. May 8th is time for the smoke filled rooms.
SNP 45 (+4) Labour 29% (-2), Conservatives 14% (nc) Lib Dems on 4% (+1), Ukip on 4% (-3) Greens 2%.
Changes since January
They are stuck in a midden of their own making.
42% of SNP voters thinking it “matters a lot” compared with 64% of Con and Lab supporters. Curtice said the finding “helps explain why ‘vote Nicola, get Dave’ is not a very effective rallying call for Labour”.
But evasion is commonplace - "I'm thinking about it", "Not sure yet", "I'll certainly be voting", etc. Inexperienced canvassers often draw false conclusions from a smile or imprecise wording. Experienced canvassers can elicit more about half the time by polite/jovial follow-ups ("Who are you uncertain between?" "Are you pretty sure you won't vote for us, eh?") but sometimes the door just shuts. As a rule of thumb I usually estimate that "won't say" voters are 90% going to vote for someone else, and "don't knows" split about 2 againsts to 2 won't vote to 1 for.
What is really reliable is comparing swings in responses from the same people over time. If you've got a decent-sized data set, it generally predicts results very accurately. People are consistent truth-tellers or consistent liars, and if 5% say they've switched, that probably means a genuine 4-6% change. So generally yes, where parties have good past data, I think we roughly know the score: it's why I'm confident in my own patch. Where we haven't (=many safe seats), we're flying blind.
Must have their sugar puffs.
It's based on ACTUAL votes - council by-elections. Labour are being destroyed and the SNP are polling 55% to 60% in actual, real elections.
In the safest Labour Seats in Scotland.
I bet there are constituencies in the north east that havent been properly canvassed since Kinnock.
"I've often wondered about reading the Flashman novels. Are they any good - I mean do they stand up and are readable today or are they much like watching a Confessions Of... movie?"
Yes, they are very good and they stand the test of time and are best read in chronological order rather than the order they were published. However, judging from your posts on here I don't think you would enjoy them.
Actual votes arent that accurate... Unless a high turnout. If local elections and european elections were a barometer for success, William Hague would have become Prime Minister in 2001.