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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning w
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals
The only chance that LAB has on May 7th is by keeping on board the 2010 LD switchers who’ve moved since last time and winning support of yellow tactical voters in the marginals. Labour’s polling position has been buttressed the ex-LDs for the past four years.
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I would hope that Labour have other messages for the people of Bedford.
Probably Lucy Powell's brightest idea.
Obviously no-one wants to give the impression they are planning for such an outcome, or think it is likely, but the current evasive answer has had it's short lifespan already I feel, and surely doesn't fool anyone with its carefully phrased generalities. Just mix up the words and say something like 'We are confident we will win and that is our focus, but obviously we will consider the situation carefully whatever happens, but cannot confirm what would happen before then'. Ok, maybe it shows a little less bravado than they want, but how much would it hurt, honestly, to say they think they will win (even if they do not think that), and even if they didn't wouldn't guarantee working with anyone else.
https://twitter.com/craigawoodhouse/status/584451946246995969
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.
(joke)
Almost every beneficial Lib vote is now with Labour. It has tapped the well to its absolute extreme. Campaigning for more with anti-Liberal strategies is a complete waste of time.
Attacking them from the right as per that poster pretty dumb though
A poster on UK Polling Report put up a graph of 2010 LD voters current VI over time. It appears to show a late swing to the Conservatives.
http://i.imgur.com/y5ZMjFJ.png
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9327/comment-page-3#comment-987076
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxl4e2WIAAOoSx.jpg
Part-ELBOW for the week so far updated for Opinium - Tory lead pegged back ever so slightly to 0.4%. Only YouGov (assuming there's one overnight) can spoil the first official Tory lead* in ELBOW since the series begain last August!
(*There was a Tory lead of 0.01% a few weeks ago but this was rounded down to 0.0%!)
And then in the New Year?
I remember specifically that defections were "expected" once it got past the date when a by-election could no longer be called.
1. The LibDem -> Labour switchers have been in decline
2. LibDem -> Conservatvies are on the rise
3. LibDem -> UKIP has been flat
4. LibDem -> LibDem has been awful for a long-time, but is not getting any worse
There's only two types of political message. Hope/Change and X=Bad. This is an X(Liberal)=Bad. It's completely wasted. People don't vote for more police or less crime. They vote for a better future or to stop an enemy.
CON 34 (-3)
LAB 33 (-2)
LIB 10 (+3)
UKIP 13 (+1)
GRN 4 (-1)
Fieldwork 3rd-4th
Cleggmania 2? Daily roundup to follow!
#GE2015
YouGov/Sunday Times poll: Tories lead by 1 point.
Con 34%
Lab 33%
LD 10%
Ukip 13%
SNP/PC 5%
Green 4%
@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times: Cameron personal rating now +2 (was -1 last week), Miliband -26
Still ahead in a poll taken immediately after the debate.
5 weeks to go by when the debate will be long forgotten.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584455838254952448
Not sure what ramping earlier was about
Or has the Sunday Sun got another YG?
Bit harsh on the Greens, given Bennett did alright and was left free to put her views without being attacked in the debates, which could have improved her personal image somewhat. Hasn't filtered through to the party VI if it has happened I guess. Quite apart from my unionist quavering at the SNP landslide, Salmond losing would be a fantastic result simply because it seems such a foregone conclusion. Massive upsets always nice to see. A loss to the Commons if he did lose though.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
(b) If the Tories don't have enough votes to get a referendum approved by the HoC it doesn't happen. So either the LibDems get to dictate the terms, or there isn't a vote. Now personally, I think they'd be crazy to try and amend the terms of the referendum (eg including EU nationals) as it will really piss off a lot of voters who will think it a fix but the pro-EU side. Far better to trade it for something valuable for themselves (eg STV for local elections) than mess around.
Sunder Katwala retweeted Nick Sutton
Mail on Sunday splash claims UKIP commissioned South Thanet poll which showed Farage in 3rd place behind Cons & Lab
Which I believe is an indicator of upcoming increase in Tory VI.
I think we can expect ever more ludicrous spending/ nationalising policies from Ed in the next 4+ weeks as desperation kicks in.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxo_KlWMAAO9D7.jpg
Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews)
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/584458101996310528
(Gordon Brown would have been even better.)
Particularly as he said he would step down as leader - how delicious
Thanks.
Wow,close all 3 parties.
Edit-Farage could easily still be ahead going on that poll.