Anyone else not seeing links to twitter posts? I thought people were making an odd point by posting blank spaces somehow, which admittedly would have as much content as one of my average comments, but alas was not the case as I could see when 'quoting' the empty spaces. Not seen that error before.
There's a lot of game playing going on by all sides in Thanet South, probably expected for a tight three way marginal where each side are fighting for the same voters. The fact Farage could come third in one poll and 11% ahead in another shows that it's an unpredictable seat and Farage will have no idea if he will be a MP until election night itself.
The 11% poll was by Survation, who generally have the highest UKIP shares.
Survation constituency polls don't past vote weight as a rule
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
Thanks.
I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
Thanks.
I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.
I am not trying to be funny, I am calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
I am also putting spaces after the punctuation marks.
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.
(a) Farage has form of making fanciful claims about Tory defects.
He does. Although to be fair, eventually a couple did come true.
That's true.
Although perhaps I should clarify I meant "Tory defections" not "Tory defects"
30th anniversary of the death of Willie McRae tomorrow.
SNP won't touch it but will be interesting to watch social media.
Especially as the consensus today is that he was murdered not for being a Nationalist but because he had a copy of at least a portion of the VIP Paedo-Files.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
Thanks.
I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.
I am not trying to be funny, I am calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
I am also putting spaces after the punctuation marks.
Looking back at the spreads on the previous thread regarding Scotland. It might worth noting that the SNP got 53 of the 73 FPTP seats in the Holyrood elections in 2011 Labour 15 the Tories 3 and the Libdems 2. This would equate to 43/12/2/2 when converting to the 59 seats for Scotland in HoC on a pure proportional measure. (Not totally accurate I know, but seems close although it does overstated the Libdems!) The precentage of the vote was 45/32/14/8. With Labour consistently polling 5% below this in opinion polls for Scotland at the moment single figure MP's seems very possible. It also shows the hopelessness of the position for the Libdems and only 1 seat looks likely.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
Thanks.
I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.
The problem with politicians is they thing they are right, and that all right thinking people should also see things the way they do. If for some reason a voter disagrees, it is obviously because the voter doesnt understand the issue, and just needs it better explained.
The problem with politicians is they thing they are right, and that all right thinking people should also see things the way they do. If for some reason a voter disagrees, it is obviously because the voter doesnt understand the issue, and just needs it better explained.
Or are morally a bad person. But actually the example you give can be more irritating to be on the receiving end of, or just feel the simplified, generic impact of on pronouncements and stock phrases.
I think the 'interesting' thing is that like all the other polls this w/e there is virtually no change. A nice bit of egg on the faces of the broadcasters.
Yeah - don't often agree with Felix, but this is the Not Much Change election campaign so far. A bit of weakening of the big 2, though, which makes sense with everyone else getting exposure.
Anecdote department: Canvassed one home today with grandparents unsure how to vote, despite being urged by their grandson (age about 8, I'd say) who (unlike them) had watched the whole debate and was urging them to back Ed. Reminded me of myself at that age...
Finally met a LibDem non-switcher (in a ward held by two LD councillors) and said I respected his loyalty. He looked a bit nonplussed. But yes, that leaflet isn't one that I'd use.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.
Thanks.
I suggest the secret to being funny is to make other people laugh,not just you.
Can you point us to the link please.
Since you ask nicely,I have posted an example.Check the thread on the 2nd April for the rest.
trublue Posts: 12 April 2 Cameron was excellent. He took full advantage of the others going after his record to maximise his camera time, and was very prime ministerial in doing so. He was solid in defence, played good offence against Labour and UKIP and sat back and allowed Sturgeon to obliterate any hopes Labour had of turning the polls around in Scotland. Overall a very satisfying night for the blue team. I think The Sun have nailed it with their headline btw: Miliband has blown it, it's over
Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation
Is that it ?
Quite. That is some seriously weak stuff. Even when a paper has chosen a firm stance for the GE period, they would be advised I think to wait for the better opportunities to go really big with it, and have holding pieces until then, rather than attempt to go big almost every day when it really cannot be justified. Dilutes the impact of the better opportunities.
Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation
Is that it ?
It might be enough, according to what is on it. Ed has been spending tens of thousands of pounds on tutoring for the debates. So we can expect plenty of buzzwords and and debaty-motivational geeky junk
I think the 'interesting' thing is that like all the other polls this w/e there is virtually no change. A nice bit of egg on the faces of the broadcasters.
Yeah - don't often agree with Felix, but this is the Not Much Change election campaign so far. A bit of weakening of the big 2, though, which makes sense with everyone else getting exposure.
Anecdote department: Canvassed one home today with grandparents unsure how to vote, despite being urged by their grandson (age about 8, I'd say) who (unlike them) had watched the whole debate and was urging them to back Ed. Reminded me of myself at that age...
Finally met a LibDem non-switcher (in a ward held by two LD councillors) and said I respected his loyalty. He looked a bit nonplussed. But yes, that leaflet isn't one that I'd use.
Is there one with a picture of Ed on that you would use?
The good people of Thanet South don't want the stigma.
Of voting Labour?
It'd very strange if Labour won it, it doesn't seem like a Labour type seat at all.
They held it between 1997 and 2010
It looks like a seat that should have bounced back in 2005, only losing by 3,000 in 1997. Such a poor record sounds like a poorly performing conservative party organisation pre 2010, or just a really good MP.
YOU GOV S Times versus last weeks You gov Sunday times Con +2,Lab -3,Lib +2 UKIP =,Green -2.
Some hope for LD's they were virtually invisible as part of the coalition and invisible since Xmas.The trick now is to make sure they get a good share of /regular media coverage from now through to the election.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
TPD Reckless was left with no choice but to do the same, that's a result I'm looking forward to on election night. Reckless and Salmond would be my two favourite 'moments'.
'Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.'
Spot on, how long will the UKIP paymasters want to continue if they end up with one or two MP's ?
Yougov Tory 37% as much an outlier as its Labour 4% lead.
Dream on.
Isn't that PB all over? polls that favour labour are extreme outliers but polls that favour the tories are absolutely really honest guv the gospel truth. Lol
37% will still be a decent outcome for blue one month hence.
What odds would anyone back the Lib Dems at in Thanet South by the way - I'm asking as I have a gaping chasm there, but what actually are the correct odds -
10,000-1; 100,000-1; 1,000,000 to 1 ?
What would people back and what would people lay...
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Despite the heroic actions of their crews in hot-air filled and appalling conditions, the land battleships hoping to crash through the lines of 38 have mostly broken down after initial good progress. Hard working mechanics are being recalled from leave by the telegraphs and we can only hope the assault is renewed. The enemy though have sunk into the muddy morass of 33. Veterans will tell you that falling wounded into the mud, laden with uncompetent equipment, can lead to disappearing altogether.
That leaflet will almost certainly make me want vote LD. There is an authoritarian, populist strand to the Labour party that was attracted to Maggie, and equally attracted to UKIP. That strand, if it still sits in Labour, will be attracted to that poster.
One of those leaflets turned up, not addressed to me, but was for my wife. I don't think it will encourage her to lend them her vote. She wasn't impressed.
I had a leaflet with a fetching photo of Ed with the local Labour candidate, and ambiguous wording about a straight choice...Oddly enough it made no reference to the LD incumbent.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
Or win it.
The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.
It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
Yes, absolutely. I have Labour friends in UKIP areas who've told me that'll they'll vote Tory to stop UKIP. If it was me, I don't know if I could, but I know for sure that Labour card members will vote Tory to stop UKIP.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
There are exactly 57 dead parrots in this government!
Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
Or win it.
The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.
It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
Never in a million years.
In Thanet South, or other Coastal constituencies, you have left-wing voters who are anti-EU and anti-immigration. So, if they've given up on Labour, who do they vote for? That's not hard to answer.
Looks like UKIP have a good chance of winning Thanet South, then.
And some nicely orchestrated tactical voting will see them lose it.
Or win it.
The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.
It will be the reverse Sturgeon process. Do we really believe dye-in-the-wool Labour voters will vote Tory to stop UKIP ?
Never in a million years.
In Thanet South, or other Coastal constituencies, you have left-wing voters who are anti-EU and anti-immigration. So, if they've given up on Labour, who do they vote for? That's not hard to answer.
As I mentioned earlier, Maggie appealed to a section of Labour's traditional base, which'll be attracted to UKIP (and to this kind of leaflet).
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
'I'm sorry ... Would it really make it easier for you if we settled on just one number?.'
Labour's leaflet is really dumb because the LD drugs policy is far more popular than the LDs are - plenty of Labour folk who support a change. Lab suffer from a superiority complex with the Lib Dems, and have never shown they understand much about what motivates LD voters.
If I lived in Thanet S ( as solid LD) I'd have a dilemma. If Laura Sandys was re-standing I'd vote for her without hesitation. But McKinley is not my cup of tea at all, and definitely not worth a tactical vote to stop Farage. Are there enough people like me for the Tories to have blown it with the wrong candidate? I'd probably vote Al Murray actually; with so many comedy candidates might as well go for the funniest.
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.
Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.
Whatever one may think of Douglas Carswell, at least he had the grace and decency to resubmit himself to his constituency on crossing the floor.
Indeed. I recall a few attempts to suggest it was a wasteful ego thing for him to do, but I don't think that got much traction. Even with his personal vote he took a risk he did not have to, framed it as a clear moral decision, therefore intentionally putting more pressure on those that would follow. I hope whatever defections we get in the future from any side, and they are of course rare, would follow his example in this.
Who is programming Farage? Will it be 57 communists in Westminster next?
I have no idea what you are talking about or referencing.
'I'm sorry ... Would it really make it easier for you if we settled on just one number?.'
You will have to forgive me, perhaps I am being slow tonight, but I am still confused. I mentioned I admired Carswell's going for a by-election when he didn't have to and hope that precedent continues with others in the future. You then respond with a comment about Farage being programmed?
Comments
What does the ICM Wisdom say?
Survation constituency polls don't past vote weight as a rule
But not going to happen for a million and one reasons.
I am also putting spaces after the punctuation marks.
Although perhaps I should clarify I meant "Tory defections" not "Tory defects"
Especially as the consensus today is that he was murdered not for being a Nationalist but because he had a copy of at least a portion of the VIP Paedo-Files.
It might worth noting that the SNP got 53 of the 73 FPTP seats in the Holyrood elections in 2011 Labour 15 the Tories 3 and the Libdems 2.
This would equate to 43/12/2/2 when converting to the 59 seats for Scotland in HoC on a pure proportional measure. (Not totally accurate I know, but seems close although it does overstated the Libdems!)
The precentage of the vote was 45/32/14/8. With Labour consistently polling 5% below this in opinion polls for Scotland at the moment single figure MP's seems very possible. It also shows the hopelessness of the position for the Libdems and only 1 seat looks likely.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/584460689391091715
This is the man who writes himself little notes. Ah, how sweet!
David Wooding ✔ @DavidWooding
Secrets of Ed Miliband's TV debates crib sheet, and his motivational notes, revealed in Sun on Sunday tomorrow and @SunNation
Is that it ?
Yet again the people around Miliband show themselves to not be up to the task.
Anecdote department: Canvassed one home today with grandparents unsure how to vote, despite being urged by their grandson (age about 8, I'd say) who (unlike them) had watched the whole debate and was urging them to back Ed. Reminded me of myself at that age...
Finally met a LibDem non-switcher (in a ward held by two LD councillors) and said I respected his loyalty. He looked a bit nonplussed. But yes, that leaflet isn't one that I'd use.
trublue Posts: 12
April 2
Cameron was excellent. He took full advantage of the others going after his record to maximise his camera time, and was very prime ministerial in doing so. He was solid in defence, played good offence against Labour and UKIP and sat back and allowed Sturgeon to obliterate any hopes Labour had of turning the polls around in Scotland. Overall a very satisfying night for the blue team. I think The Sun have nailed it with their headline btw: Miliband has blown it, it's over
Was this not a UKIP internal poll then, if not whose is it?
Ed has been spending tens of thousands of pounds on tutoring for the debates. So we can expect plenty of buzzwords and and debaty-motivational geeky junk
I just wanted a story with more political impact
'PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!'
The PB Kinnocks have been telling us how Ed won the debates & yet he's still behind in the latest YouGov, in Labour speak is this a deferred success?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3025874/Nigel-Farage-buries-loser-poll-Ukip-leader-covers-survey-spelling-humiliating-defeat-Tories-Thanet-seat.html
Or did Blair's blood money not run to that.
With the Tories ahead with both Ashcroft and Comres I think they represent cracking value in Thanet South @ 4-1 with Skybet.
DYOR
The belief that left-wing voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP is like belief in unicorns.
*fetches smelling salts for Miss Carnyx*
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ
(I don't think Mr Goodwin much likes UKIP. He's a cheerleader for buying Mr Goodwin's book, rather than for UKIP.)
Do Labour use ComRes? As UKIP have been using Survation for an awful lot of their polling.
Con +2,Lab -3,Lib +2 UKIP =,Green -2.
Some hope for LD's they were virtually invisible as part of the coalition and invisible since Xmas.The trick now is to make sure they get a good share of /regular media coverage from now through to the election.
TPD Reckless was left with no choice but to do the same, that's a result I'm looking forward to on election night. Reckless and Salmond would be my two favourite 'moments'.
'Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.'
Spot on, how long will the UKIP paymasters want to continue if they end up with one or two MP's ?
37% will still be a decent outcome for blue one month hence.
10,000-1; 100,000-1; 1,000,000 to 1 ?
What would people back and what would people lay...
The enemy though have sunk into the muddy morass of 33. Veterans will tell you that falling wounded into the mud, laden with uncompetent equipment, can lead to disappearing altogether.
N.B - those who backed UKIP-6 in Thanet S with me - cashout available at 60% to reduce losses until midnight on 10/4/15.
There is an authoritarian, populist strand to the Labour party that was attracted to Maggie, and equally attracted to UKIP. That strand, if it still sits in Labour, will be attracted to that poster.
Take your pic, it's a 96% book at the moment.
I had a leaflet with a fetching photo of Ed with the local Labour candidate, and ambiguous wording about a straight choice...Oddly enough it made no reference to the LD incumbent.
4-1 Tories
4-6 UKIP
Those can all be value at the moment.
In Thanet South, or other Coastal constituencies, you have left-wing voters who are anti-EU and anti-immigration. So, if they've given up on Labour, who do they vote for? That's not hard to answer.
Scottish Labour "For Sale" in Ayr
This will increase her majority !
If I lived in Thanet S ( as solid LD) I'd have a dilemma. If Laura Sandys was re-standing I'd vote for her without hesitation. But McKinley is not my cup of tea at all, and definitely not worth a tactical vote to stop Farage. Are there enough people like me for the Tories to have blown it with the wrong candidate? I'd probably vote Al Murray actually; with so many comedy candidates might as well go for the funniest.
Also took time out to criticise Labour over tuition fees.
I bit my tongue :-)