politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck
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In 2010 the Labour vote was being depressed by Labour people failing to turn out in safe Labour seats (thereby making them seem more "efficient"). To some extent - I don't now how significant - that could now be unwinding, giving a ConDem government in Westminster to vote against.MikeL said:
Of course - but Con can only do anything about their own score.weejonnie said:
It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.MikeL said:Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.
Blindingly obvious that even if Con rises from 2010, Lab could rise more from its 2010 (and it almost certainly will rise more) - which will mean net Lab gains from Con.0 -
Where is their Cameron though?chestnut said:
They lost the election in autumn 2010.Big_G_NorthWales said:What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.0 -
Where is Tandridge ?MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
By that I mean which seat0 -
That's the issue, it just reinforces current opinion. Labour are useless on the economy. We all know that already and so do the general public. I think they need to make a big splash on NHS funding to change the game for them and neutralise Labour on it. I hope Dave has something in the bag for tomorrow when the questions come. I think a £20bn funding pledge would do it.GIN1138 said:
In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging I think.MaxPB said:
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.GIN1138 said:
Things are going well for the Tories.Jonathan said:Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.0 -
We were told by who?MarqueeMark said:
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.isam said:
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact leastchestnut said:
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.isam said:Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters0 -
Dear Telegraph,
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....0 -
There was a vox pop on the radio the other day where some chap moaning about NHS funding asserted that the government had "trillions of pounds" to spare.KentRising said:Newsnight has seemingly given up on serious reporting and is instead offering some kind of Come Dine With Me/Gogglebox nightmare in which thick people talk about 'da ishoos'.
Yearly emigration from the UK is "about 3,000", was one gem.
As the kids might say
#lamentable
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Dan JarvisMarqueeMark said:
Where is their Cameron though?chestnut said:
They lost the election in autumn 2010.Big_G_NorthWales said:What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.0 -
Labours huge mistake was to get to March 2015 and have nothing on offer but "NHS" and bash the rich.
The 35% approach has failed. Particularly in Scotland and swathes of England.
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It's got to be one of the women, and probably not any of the current senior front benchMarqueeMark said:Where is their Cameron though?
Lisa Nandy could make a go of it, especially if they swing left after defeat.0 -
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...Grandiose said:
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!frpenkridge said:What do you have to do to get the free buddleias?
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Where do I sign?FrancisUrquhart said:Dear Telegraph,
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016.0 -
But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.MaxPB said:
That's the issue, it just reinforces current opinion. Labour are useless on the economy. We all know that already and so do the general public. I think they need to make a big splash on NHS funding to change the game for them and neutralise Labour on it. I hope Dave has something in the bag for tomorrow when the questions come. I think a £20bn funding pledge would do it.GIN1138 said:
In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging I think.MaxPB said:
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.GIN1138 said:
Things are going well for the Tories.Jonathan said:Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.
There hasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
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@toadmeister: Karen Buck MP, @Ed_Miliband’s Parliamentary Private Secretary, employs six staffers on zero-hours contracts http://dailym.ai/1BvcbFa0
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Why would anyone waste money on a Death Star, the first one had a huge design flaw, and the second one was destroyed by an army of teddy bears.FrancisUrquhart said:Dear Telegraph,
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....
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That said, the destruction of the first Death Star was an inside job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEPazLTGceI0 -
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?kle4 said:Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.0 -
East Surrey.Pulpstar said:
Where is Tandridge ?MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
By that I mean which seat
Staying blue.0 -
They were both Government IT projects.TheScreamingEagles said:Why would anyone waste money on a Death Star, the first one had a huge design flaw, and the second one was destroyed by an army of teddy bears.
This one will be built like a Lockheed Martin Skunkworks project...0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r87o6bLoUsgTheScreamingEagles said:
the second one was destroyed by an army of teddy bears.FrancisUrquhart said:Dear Telegraph,
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....0 -
If I had nothing better to do with my life, I would trawl the gazillions of posts here over the past few months to show the kipper Camborne-touting. But it is damn near impossible to search for posts on this site....isam said:
We were told by who?MarqueeMark said:
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.isam said:
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact leastchestnut said:
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.isam said:Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters0 -
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.hunchman said:
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?kle4 said:Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
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From looking at my election map and knowing the area somewhat, I think its in Surrey East but don't quote me on it!Pulpstar said:
Where is Tandridge ?MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
By that I mean which seat0 -
They've got a few reasonably normal ones, from what I've seen.MarqueeMark said:Where is their Cameron though?
I'm not sure these people can break through the dynasty situation with Labour though.
Only those with an enormous ethnic vote can permeate the WMC/WUC dynasties of the Benn's, Milibands, Cooper-Balls, Harman-Dromeys.
The Blairs,Straws, Prescotts are jobs or the boys, literally.
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It's called re-UKIPing the landscape...MarqueeMark said:
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...Grandiose said:
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!frpenkridge said:What do you have to do to get the free buddleias?
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She's been well tutored and mentored by Wee Alex over the years - you should know that!kle4 said:
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much and her success appalls me.hunchman said:
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?kle4 said:Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.0 -
She does the Salmond trick of pausing, chuckling at her own joke, then continuing - vomit inducing.kle4 said:
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.hunchman said:
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?kle4 said:Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.0 -
You beat me to it. Presumbaly Sam Gyimah is standing again? 1/100 Tories with Shadsy at Ladbrokes I'd guess!KentRising said:
East Surrey.Pulpstar said:
Where is Tandridge ?MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
By that I mean which seat
Staying blue.0 -
You might not like it but it plays well with the Scottish sense of humour!TGOHF said:
She does the Salmond trick of pausing, chuckling at her own joke, then continuing - vomit inducing.kle4 said:
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.hunchman said:
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?kle4 said:Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.0 -
Geoffrey Howe's old seat. Blue since at least 1918. A Liberal won a by-election there - in 1871....hunchman said:
You beat me to it. Presumbaly Sam Gyimah is standing again? 1/100 Tories with Shadsy at Ladbrokes I'd guess!KentRising said:
East Surrey.Pulpstar said:
Where is Tandridge ?MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
By that I mean which seat
Staying blue.0 -
It is on schedule eight (I think that's the right number) which is plants that are non indigenous and invasive. That is a lower classification than things like Japanese knot weed or rhododendron, but puts restrictions on display and distribution and a responsibility on the gardener or end user to take measures to prevent the distribution of seed or other material that could propagate the plant.MarqueeMark said:
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...Grandiose said:
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!frpenkridge said:What do you have to do to get the free buddleias?
However, nobody knows or cares, which is a pity as it is a foul plant.0 -
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I agree, but that won't switch enough Labour voters to the Tory cause. The Tories need Lab>Con switchers in order to win so a centrist position that supports the NHS is a necessity. Without a strong stance on the NHS and money to back it the Cons won't get those centrist Labour voters on side who are concerned with the economy but also believe in state power. I think the fear of Ed Miliband as PM will be enough to win back a few UKIP supporters and tacking right will lose more votes in the centre than will gain from UKIP.GIN1138 said:But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.
There hjasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
To be the complete package for centrist voters the Tories need to be strong on the NHS at least. They have already prepared the ground, the PM and Chancellor have both used the idea that a strong economy is required to fully fund the NHS and I expect Dave will use that tomorrow night. They need to make that link and tomorrow is going to be the best chance to do it:
"Because of our long term economic plan we were able to protect the NHS from cuts and for the next 5 years we intend to do the same, but this time we will guarantee a minimum 2% annual rise in the NHS budget so that we can have the best and most efficient health service in the world. Without a strong economy which only a Conservative government can provide, we would not be able to fully fund the NHS and ensure it remains the world's best healthcare provider".
Or something along those lines. Say it in Dave's voice and I think that is pretty much his answer on the NHS question tomorrow night.0 -
Wake up, she doesn't care what the English viewers think of here within reason. She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters. Just attack Labour relentlessly from the left as Red Tories - it's been working well enough so far.Scott_P said:
How?hunchman said:I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate
What is she going to say that will make English viewers rate her?0 -
...but only in Scotland.Tykejohnno said:Left of labour for one.
"We stopped tuition fess. In Scotland"
"We scrapped bedroom tax. In Scotland"
How does that appeal to English viewers?0 -
Not sure where David Herdson got his figures from but:
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 6m6 minutes ago
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
Labour lead only 0.1% across the whole of March, was 1.2% in February. There were 51 polls with fieldwork end dates 1st to 31st March, total sample 64,7890 -
It's not difficult at all actuallyMarqueeMark said:
If I had nothing better to do with my life, I would trawl the gazillions of posts here over the past few months to show the kipper Camborne-touting. But it is damn near impossible to search for posts on this site....isam said:
We were told by who?MarqueeMark said:
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.isam said:
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact leastchestnut said:
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.isam said:Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters
You click on someone's name to get to the other page and type Camborne into the search et voila
It was tipped as a good bet by Stuart Dickson and OGH at 40/1, I said it was on my third list of Ukip chances (made in April 2013) which meant 'might be worth a throwaway tenner'
So unless you count 40/1 shots that go 7/2 but like like they're going to lose as touting, In which case you know nothing about betting, think you're wrong0 -
Well enough people might fall for that line, but with the global sovereign debt crisis beginning 6 months from today, its simply a load of baloney. We're over 6 years into an economic recovery. The average economic cycle lasts around 8-9 years. And yet Cameron and Osborne are projecting a linear trend that continues like it has for the past 5 years. Its totally bankrupt and bonkers thinking given economic history since the dawn of time. Things go in CYCLES, not some linear trend projected forward ad infinitum. And if the people fall for it, greater fools them. I hope and trust that they won't.MaxPB said:
I agree, but that won't switch enough Labour voters to the Tory cause. The Tories need Lab>Con switchers in order to win so a centrist position that supports the NHS is a necessity. Without a strong stance on the NHS and money to back it the Cons won't get those centrist Labour voters on side who are concerned with the economy but also believe in state power. I think the fear of Ed Miliband as PM will be enough to win back a few UKIP supporters and tacking right will lose more votes in the centre than will gain from UKIP.GIN1138 said:But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.
There hjasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
To be the complete package for centrist voters the Tories need to be strong on the NHS at least. They have already prepared the ground, the PM and Chancellor have both used the idea that a strong economy is required to fully fund the NHS and I expect Dave will use that tomorrow night. They need to make that link and tomorrow is going to be the best chance to do it:
"Because of our long term economic plan we were able to protect the NHS from cuts and for the next 5 years we intend to do the same, but this time we will guarantee a minimum 2% annual rise in the NHS budget so that we can have the best and most efficient health service in the world. Without a strong economy which only a Conservative government can provide, we would not be able to fully fund the NHS and ensure it remains the world's best healthcare provider".
Or something along those lines. Say it in Dave's voice and I think that is pretty much his answer on the NHS question tomorrow night.0 -
Ok, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.hunchman said:She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters.
I think you are right, that Scottish voters will rate her above all others, regardless of what happens.
I thought we were discussing who would "win" the debate in terms of coming top of the post debate poll, for the purposes of settling bets on who "won" the debate
I can't see why English viewers of the debate would say she was better than anyone else on the panel given the likely content of her message0 -
She can 'win' the debate by virtue of seeming the most impressive, which I assume she'll do by managing to tear strips of Ed M and Cameron both. Sure, what she has done and wants to do in Scotland won't appeal to English voters, and some, many, might dislike the idea of her dictating terms to England, but purely in terms of the debate, and which leader will look and sound the best, I think even those who dislike her and the SNP, and what they might do, might call it for her.Scott_P said:
...but only in Scotland.Tykejohnno said:Left of labour for one.
"We stopped tuition fess. In Scotland"
"We scrapped bedroom tax. In Scotland"
How does that appeal to English viewers?
She, meanwhile, will not care about that as much as whether it keep the juggernaught among Scottish voters going, which it may well do too.
Night all.0 -
So,the English left see a leader that says and keeps her promises on leftwing polices unlike the so called English labour party.Scott_P said:
...but only in Scotland.Tykejohnno said:Left of labour for one.
"We stopped tuition fess. In Scotland"
"We scrapped bedroom tax. In Scotland"
How does that appeal to English viewers?
She will be appealing to the left in Scotland but for sure the English left will love it.
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@jonwalker121: Tories bring #hs2 into election battle & challenge Labour to pledge support for entire project http://t.co/VuuQ4otwdd http://t.co/zRd74L7e9H0
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Jesus Christ...I don't know who is doing the web development for these big media organisations, but they wont shooting. ESPN have just revamped their site and it is bloody awful as well.0
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Favourite backers out in force for Farage !0
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True but that's of academic interest only when what counts is how they go down in the 59 seats they're standing in in Scotland.Scott_P said:
Ok, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.hunchman said:She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters.
I think you are right, that Scottish voters will rate her above all others, regardless of what happens.
I thought we were discussing who would "win" the debate in terms of coming top of the post debate poll, for the purposes of settling bets on who "won" the debate
I can't see why English viewers of the debate would say she was better than anyone else on the panel given the likely content of her message
As for Leanne Wood - well her message must resonate in Ynys Mon, Arfon, Merioyndd (does it really matter there as that is nailed on Plaid country!), Ceredigeon and Carmarthen East and Dinfewr. Does it really matter realistically how she goes down anywhere else other than those 5 constituencies?!! I do like her voice though - there's something very attractive about her Welsh lilt, almost convinces you that the deficit doesn't matter.......cough...splutter....cough!0 -
Think bringing this up will hurt the tory support more than labour.Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Tories bring #hs2 into election battle & challenge Labour to pledge support for entire project http://t.co/VuuQ4otwdd http://t.co/zRd74L7e9H
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Oooh, I've been invited to do worm-type stuff for YouGov tomorrow. But only for the 2nd half of the debate, interestingly.0
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Ex-Forces, same rank as Eric Joyce. There must be more to him, than 'Vote for Dan, coz he was in the Army'. What's his USP?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dan JarvisMarqueeMark said:
Where is their Cameron though?chestnut said:
They lost the election in autumn 2010.Big_G_NorthWales said:What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
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Isn't it mostly Tory / UKIP that get pissed off about HS2?Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Tories bring #hs2 into election battle & challenge Labour to pledge support for entire project http://t.co/VuuQ4otwdd http://t.co/zRd74L7e9H
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Strange thing to lead on I agree. £50bn or so and it affects about 2-3% of rail journeys - what about improving the lines to East Anglia and down in the South West around Dawlish for instance?! Anyway once the sovereign debt crisis starts in 6 months time, hopefully the mad project that is HS2 will get consigned to the dustbin of history.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't it mostly Tory / UKIP that get pissed off about HS2?Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Tories bring #hs2 into election battle & challenge Labour to pledge support for entire project http://t.co/VuuQ4otwdd http://t.co/zRd74L7e9H
It'll be interesting to see how much effect it has in places like Beaconsfield and Amersham and places.....adding to the efficiency of the Tory vote this time if they are really on 36% nationally.
Good night all.0 -
Oh That's nice, Paddy have settled some bets.
Nice to see £309 in there anyway. Now to work out what has settled.0 -
Ah It's my Clegg and Miliband bets !
Good job making it to the election boys
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How is "Margaret Thatcher" at 8/1 to be said in the debates? I can imagine any of Ukip, SNP and Plaid Cymru alluding to Mrs T, perhaps even the Greens, though I suppose you only get the payout if the full name is spoken.0
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HS2 is a cross party issue bo0th for and against. Natascha Engel is opposing it, as are UKIP round here. Don't know Lee Rowley (Con)'s position on it. Asking him on twitterhunchman said:
Strange thing to lead on I agree. £50bn or so and it affects about 2-3% of rail journeys - what about improving the lines to East Anglia and down in the South West around Dawlish for instance?! Anyway once the sovereign debt crisis starts in 6 months time, hopefully the mad project that is HS2 will get consigned to the dustbin of history.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't it mostly Tory / UKIP that get pissed off about HS2?Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Tories bring #hs2 into election battle & challenge Labour to pledge support for entire project http://t.co/VuuQ4otwdd http://t.co/zRd74L7e9H
It'll be interesting to see how much effect it has in places like Beaconsfield and Amersham and places.....adding to the efficiency of the Tory vote this time if they are really on 36% nationally.
Good night all.0 -
Are the bookies laying Farage with relish or a bit worried ?Tissue_Price said:Oooh, I've been invited to do worm-type stuff for YouGov tomorrow. But only for the 2nd half of the debate, interestingly.
Looks like there is a heavy book on him to my eyes at any rate.0 -
I think he'd be backed almost regardless of price. Good job for the Kippers that bookmaking is such a competitive market...Pulpstar said:
Are the bookies laying Farage with relish or a bit worried ?Tissue_Price said:Oooh, I've been invited to do worm-type stuff for YouGov tomorrow. But only for the 2nd half of the debate, interestingly.
Looks like there is a heavy book on him to my eyes at any rate.0 -
Farage will avoid saying it as it will put off potential Red Kippers.EPG said:How is "Margaret Thatcher" at 8/1 to be said in the debates? I can imagine any of Ukip, SNP and Plaid Cymru alluding to Mrs T, perhaps even the Greens, though I suppose you only get the payout if the full name is spoken.
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So Labour have lost the lead they have held for eons. He will have to go for Cameron now in the debate.0
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Sturgeon if she is on her game will make a monkey of Ed and Clegg and that wont hurt Farage or Cameron. Labour because they have lost the lead now have to go for Cameron. Farage will be laughing if he doesn't do anything stupid, his targets are in England.0
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I've watched Sturgeon vs Carmichael. Hope Ed Miliband especially knows what he's letting himself in for.Itwasrigged said:Sturgeon if she is on her game will make a monkey of Ed and Clegg and that wont hurt Farage or Cameron. Labour because they have lost the lead now have to go for Cameron. Farage will be laughing if he doesn't do anything stupid, his targets are in England.
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From the history of the polling average it appears as though Miliband ceded sole leadership of the opposition to Farage in spring 2013. Potentially, the debates are an opportunity for him to lay claim to that leadership again. It would make for a dramatic turn of events if he did, and I think that is what is at stake in the debate tomorrow - who can land the most telling blow on Cameron?0
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Each to their own but we have two buddleia bushes in the garden because they attract butterflies and the bees love them. As for being invasive we have had our two for years and they have never propagated or otherwise made a nuisance of themselves.philiph said:
It is on schedule eight (I think that's the right number) which is plants that are non indigenous and invasive. That is a lower classification than things like Japanese knot weed or rhododendron, but puts restrictions on display and distribution and a responsibility on the gardener or end user to take measures to prevent the distribution of seed or other material that could propagate the plant.MarqueeMark said:
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...Grandiose said:
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!frpenkridge said:What do you have to do to get the free buddleias?
However, nobody knows or cares, which is a pity as it is a foul plant.0 -
Did the Greens really lose almost a fifth of their support on the back of Natalie Bennett's disastrous interview with Nick Ferrari? The VI figures in David Herdson's thread header above indicate that they alone suffered a sharp downturn over the past month. What else might have caused this?0
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People deciding that a return to the iron age is not a terribly good idea perhaps.peter_from_putney said:Did the Greens really lose almost a fifth of their support on the back of Natalie Bennett's disastrous interview with Nick Ferrari? The VI figures in David Herdson's thread header above indicate that they alone suffered a sharp downturn over the past month. What else might have caused this?
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Yes I did all the stations on the Caterham branch that year! And it is in Surrey proper (like Epsom Downs and Tattenham Corner)hunchman said:
Isn't it Whyteleafe, Whyteleafe South and then Caterham at the end of the train line Sunil? I've been along there many many moons ago. Lib Dem gain there though! Is it part of Croydon South or actually in a Surrey seat? Purely of academic interest!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Whyteleafe, I've been there back in 2008, just inside the London Oystercard area.Tissue_Price said:Britain Elects @britainelects
Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.0 -
But! But! But!Tykejohnno said:
Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
Martin Freeman has had a million views on YouTube (or something)....
Oh, and its currently 209,683 views on YouTube.....but heck, it's Labour, where 'truth' trumps 'facts'.....
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Which UKIP supporter said this then?
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html0 -
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.CarlottaVance said:Which UKIP supporter said this then?
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html
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Now obviously his brother is in the US and that is the system. But Ed makes these stupid statements all the time, rather than say, I don't personally have private healthcare, but many people do. However, it is important that the NHS....free at the point of service, yadda yadda yadda...
Now only will the media find a friends and high profile Labour figures who have had private healthcare, but it also alienates those that have it, as he makes it sound like a bad thing.
It is again like him moralizing over totally standard arrangement of your affairs to be tax efficient. Because again most normal people do exactly that, and it doesn't mean they have some dodgy HSBC account in Switzerland or involved in a scheme like Jimmy Carr was.0 -
Wasn't he in America though, so there wasn't really any option!FrancisUrquhart said:
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.CarlottaVance said:Which UKIP supporter said this then?
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html0 -
How would Ed know that ? Did David pick up the phone and ring ED and say, "Ed, I have a private health care plan". I thought they were not even in speaking terms then.FrancisUrquhart said:
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.CarlottaVance said:Which UKIP supporter said this then?
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html
Assuming the whole thing is true !0 -
RobD / Surbiton...Read what I said below....It is the fact Ed makes these stupid statements all the time and it fires the starting gun on the media looking for counter examples to his moralizing.0
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Multiply 10000 by 100 ! 922,000 full time posts [ 1.3 million teaching staff ]Grandiose said:
How many teachers are there in this country? 10,000? More? Shouldn't be too difficult to find 100 to put their name to anything. (That particular letter is rather uninspiring though.)Scott_P said:@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
http://www.bbc.com/news/education-269739160 -
Clearly Labour voters helping the LD here ! Also, looks like a drop in turnout by a third. Good LD score !MarkSenior said:Tandridge result
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 1160 -
NON STORY ALERT !!surbiton said:
How would Ed know that ? Did David pick up the phone and ring ED and say, "Ed, I have a private health care plan". I thought they were not even in speaking terms then.FrancisUrquhart said:
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.CarlottaVance said:Which UKIP supporter said this then?
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html
Assuming the whole thing is true !
How many Labour MPs have private health care ? Zero.. Correct answer. David Miliband is not a Labour MP.
Not very bright some of you people are you ?
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