Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.
Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.
Of course - but Con can only do anything about their own score.
Blindingly obvious that even if Con rises from 2010, Lab could rise more from its 2010 (and it almost certainly will rise more) - which will mean net Lab gains from Con.
In 2010 the Labour vote was being depressed by Labour people failing to turn out in safe Labour seats (thereby making them seem more "efficient"). To some extent - I don't now how significant - that could now be unwinding, giving a ConDem government in Westminster to vote against.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They lost the election in autumn 2010.
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Things are going well for the Tories.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.
In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging I think.
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.
That's the issue, it just reinforces current opinion. Labour are useless on the economy. We all know that already and so do the general public. I think they need to make a big splash on NHS funding to change the game for them and neutralise Labour on it. I hope Dave has something in the bag for tomorrow when the questions come. I think a £20bn funding pledge would do it.
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
We were told by who?
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters
Newsnight has seemingly given up on serious reporting and is instead offering some kind of Come Dine With Me/Gogglebox nightmare in which thick people talk about 'da ishoos'.
Yearly emigration from the UK is "about 3,000", was one gem.
As the kids might say #lamentable
There was a vox pop on the radio the other day where some chap moaning about NHS funding asserted that the government had "trillions of pounds" to spare.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They lost the election in autumn 2010.
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Things are going well for the Tories.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.
In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging I think.
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.
That's the issue, it just reinforces current opinion. Labour are useless on the economy. We all know that already and so do the general public. I think they need to make a big splash on NHS funding to change the game for them and neutralise Labour on it. I hope Dave has something in the bag for tomorrow when the questions come. I think a £20bn funding pledge would do it.
But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.
There hasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....
Why would anyone waste money on a Death Star, the first one had a huge design flaw, and the second one was destroyed by an army of teddy bears.
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....
the second one was destroyed by an army of teddy bears.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
We were told by who?
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters
If I had nothing better to do with my life, I would trawl the gazillions of posts here over the past few months to show the kipper Camborne-touting. But it is damn near impossible to search for posts on this site....
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much and her success appalls me.
She's been well tutored and mentored by Wee Alex over the years - you should know that!
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.
She does the Salmond trick of pausing, chuckling at her own joke, then continuing - vomit inducing.
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate, but I have a rather more positive view of here than you evidently do. I won't be watching the debate as I've got a rather long drive up north tomorrow. Does anyone know if it's on the Radio at the same time - Radio 4 long wave?
I think Sturgeon is very impressive - she comes across as intelligent, talented, driven and passionate - though I find her tone smugly dismissive, so it is her very impressiveness that depresses me so much as her success appalls me as it is yet another nail in the Union's coffin.
She does the Salmond trick of pausing, chuckling at her own joke, then continuing - vomit inducing.
You might not like it but it plays well with the Scottish sense of humour!
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...
It is on schedule eight (I think that's the right number) which is plants that are non indigenous and invasive. That is a lower classification than things like Japanese knot weed or rhododendron, but puts restrictions on display and distribution and a responsibility on the gardener or end user to take measures to prevent the distribution of seed or other material that could propagate the plant.
However, nobody knows or cares, which is a pity as it is a foul plant.
But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.
There hjasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
I agree, but that won't switch enough Labour voters to the Tory cause. The Tories need Lab>Con switchers in order to win so a centrist position that supports the NHS is a necessity. Without a strong stance on the NHS and money to back it the Cons won't get those centrist Labour voters on side who are concerned with the economy but also believe in state power. I think the fear of Ed Miliband as PM will be enough to win back a few UKIP supporters and tacking right will lose more votes in the centre than will gain from UKIP.
To be the complete package for centrist voters the Tories need to be strong on the NHS at least. They have already prepared the ground, the PM and Chancellor have both used the idea that a strong economy is required to fully fund the NHS and I expect Dave will use that tomorrow night. They need to make that link and tomorrow is going to be the best chance to do it:
"Because of our long term economic plan we were able to protect the NHS from cuts and for the next 5 years we intend to do the same, but this time we will guarantee a minimum 2% annual rise in the NHS budget so that we can have the best and most efficient health service in the world. Without a strong economy which only a Conservative government can provide, we would not be able to fully fund the NHS and ensure it remains the world's best healthcare provider".
Or something along those lines. Say it in Dave's voice and I think that is pretty much his answer on the NHS question tomorrow night.
I agree with you that Sturgeon will win the debate
How?
What is she going to say that will make English viewers rate her?
Wake up, she doesn't care what the English viewers think of here within reason. She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters. Just attack Labour relentlessly from the left as Red Tories - it's been working well enough so far.
Labour lead only 0.1% across the whole of March, was 1.2% in February. There were 51 polls with fieldwork end dates 1st to 31st March, total sample 64,789
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
We were told by who?
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters
If I had nothing better to do with my life, I would trawl the gazillions of posts here over the past few months to show the kipper Camborne-touting. But it is damn near impossible to search for posts on this site....
It's not difficult at all actually
You click on someone's name to get to the other page and type Camborne into the search et voila
It was tipped as a good bet by Stuart Dickson and OGH at 40/1, I said it was on my third list of Ukip chances (made in April 2013) which meant 'might be worth a throwaway tenner'
So unless you count 40/1 shots that go 7/2 but like like they're going to lose as touting, In which case you know nothing about betting, think you're wrong
But it is the economy that will win or lose this election, IMO.
There hjasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
I agree, but that won't switch enough Labour voters to the Tory cause. The Tories need Lab>Con switchers in order to win so a centrist position that supports the NHS is a necessity. Without a strong stance on the NHS and money to back it the Cons won't get those centrist Labour voters on side who are concerned with the economy but also believe in state power. I think the fear of Ed Miliband as PM will be enough to win back a few UKIP supporters and tacking right will lose more votes in the centre than will gain from UKIP.
To be the complete package for centrist voters the Tories need to be strong on the NHS at least. They have already prepared the ground, the PM and Chancellor have both used the idea that a strong economy is required to fully fund the NHS and I expect Dave will use that tomorrow night. They need to make that link and tomorrow is going to be the best chance to do it:
"Because of our long term economic plan we were able to protect the NHS from cuts and for the next 5 years we intend to do the same, but this time we will guarantee a minimum 2% annual rise in the NHS budget so that we can have the best and most efficient health service in the world. Without a strong economy which only a Conservative government can provide, we would not be able to fully fund the NHS and ensure it remains the world's best healthcare provider".
Or something along those lines. Say it in Dave's voice and I think that is pretty much his answer on the NHS question tomorrow night.
Well enough people might fall for that line, but with the global sovereign debt crisis beginning 6 months from today, its simply a load of baloney. We're over 6 years into an economic recovery. The average economic cycle lasts around 8-9 years. And yet Cameron and Osborne are projecting a linear trend that continues like it has for the past 5 years. Its totally bankrupt and bonkers thinking given economic history since the dawn of time. Things go in CYCLES, not some linear trend projected forward ad infinitum. And if the people fall for it, greater fools them. I hope and trust that they won't.
She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters.
Ok, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.
I think you are right, that Scottish voters will rate her above all others, regardless of what happens.
I thought we were discussing who would "win" the debate in terms of coming top of the post debate poll, for the purposes of settling bets on who "won" the debate
I can't see why English viewers of the debate would say she was better than anyone else on the panel given the likely content of her message
She can 'win' the debate by virtue of seeming the most impressive, which I assume she'll do by managing to tear strips of Ed M and Cameron both. Sure, what she has done and wants to do in Scotland won't appeal to English voters, and some, many, might dislike the idea of her dictating terms to England, but purely in terms of the debate, and which leader will look and sound the best, I think even those who dislike her and the SNP, and what they might do, might call it for her.
She, meanwhile, will not care about that as much as whether it keep the juggernaught among Scottish voters going, which it may well do too.
Jesus Christ...I don't know who is doing the web development for these big media organisations, but they wont shooting. ESPN have just revamped their site and it is bloody awful as well.
She'll win it amongst the opinion of the SCOTTISH electorate, that's all that matters.
Ok, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.
I think you are right, that Scottish voters will rate her above all others, regardless of what happens.
I thought we were discussing who would "win" the debate in terms of coming top of the post debate poll, for the purposes of settling bets on who "won" the debate
I can't see why English viewers of the debate would say she was better than anyone else on the panel given the likely content of her message
True but that's of academic interest only when what counts is how they go down in the 59 seats they're standing in in Scotland.
As for Leanne Wood - well her message must resonate in Ynys Mon, Arfon, Merioyndd (does it really matter there as that is nailed on Plaid country!), Ceredigeon and Carmarthen East and Dinfewr. Does it really matter realistically how she goes down anywhere else other than those 5 constituencies?!! I do like her voice though - there's something very attractive about her Welsh lilt, almost convinces you that the deficit doesn't matter.......cough...splutter....cough!
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They lost the election in autumn 2010.
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
Where is their Cameron though?
Dan Jarvis
Ex-Forces, same rank as Eric Joyce. There must be more to him, than 'Vote for Dan, coz he was in the Army'. What's his USP?
Isn't it mostly Tory / UKIP that get pissed off about HS2?
Strange thing to lead on I agree. £50bn or so and it affects about 2-3% of rail journeys - what about improving the lines to East Anglia and down in the South West around Dawlish for instance?! Anyway once the sovereign debt crisis starts in 6 months time, hopefully the mad project that is HS2 will get consigned to the dustbin of history.
It'll be interesting to see how much effect it has in places like Beaconsfield and Amersham and places.....adding to the efficiency of the Tory vote this time if they are really on 36% nationally.
How is "Margaret Thatcher" at 8/1 to be said in the debates? I can imagine any of Ukip, SNP and Plaid Cymru alluding to Mrs T, perhaps even the Greens, though I suppose you only get the payout if the full name is spoken.
Isn't it mostly Tory / UKIP that get pissed off about HS2?
Strange thing to lead on I agree. £50bn or so and it affects about 2-3% of rail journeys - what about improving the lines to East Anglia and down in the South West around Dawlish for instance?! Anyway once the sovereign debt crisis starts in 6 months time, hopefully the mad project that is HS2 will get consigned to the dustbin of history.
It'll be interesting to see how much effect it has in places like Beaconsfield and Amersham and places.....adding to the efficiency of the Tory vote this time if they are really on 36% nationally.
Good night all.
HS2 is a cross party issue bo0th for and against. Natascha Engel is opposing it, as are UKIP round here. Don't know Lee Rowley (Con)'s position on it. Asking him on twitter
How is "Margaret Thatcher" at 8/1 to be said in the debates? I can imagine any of Ukip, SNP and Plaid Cymru alluding to Mrs T, perhaps even the Greens, though I suppose you only get the payout if the full name is spoken.
Farage will avoid saying it as it will put off potential Red Kippers.
Sturgeon if she is on her game will make a monkey of Ed and Clegg and that wont hurt Farage or Cameron. Labour because they have lost the lead now have to go for Cameron. Farage will be laughing if he doesn't do anything stupid, his targets are in England.
Sturgeon if she is on her game will make a monkey of Ed and Clegg and that wont hurt Farage or Cameron. Labour because they have lost the lead now have to go for Cameron. Farage will be laughing if he doesn't do anything stupid, his targets are in England.
I've watched Sturgeon vs Carmichael. Hope Ed Miliband especially knows what he's letting himself in for.
From the history of the polling average it appears as though Miliband ceded sole leadership of the opposition to Farage in spring 2013. Potentially, the debates are an opportunity for him to lay claim to that leadership again. It would make for a dramatic turn of events if he did, and I think that is what is at stake in the debate tomorrow - who can land the most telling blow on Cameron?
Only a Labour government could create a buddleia shortage!!
Indeed. It is extremely invasive - no doubt Sunil can give stats about the amount cleared from railway embankments every year. Most brown-field sites become purple-field sites with it in short order...
It is on schedule eight (I think that's the right number) which is plants that are non indigenous and invasive. That is a lower classification than things like Japanese knot weed or rhododendron, but puts restrictions on display and distribution and a responsibility on the gardener or end user to take measures to prevent the distribution of seed or other material that could propagate the plant.
However, nobody knows or cares, which is a pity as it is a foul plant.
Each to their own but we have two buddleia bushes in the garden because they attract butterflies and the bees love them. As for being invasive we have had our two for years and they have never propagated or otherwise made a nuisance of themselves.
Did the Greens really lose almost a fifth of their support on the back of Natalie Bennett's disastrous interview with Nick Ferrari? The VI figures in David Herdson's thread header above indicate that they alone suffered a sharp downturn over the past month. What else might have caused this?
Did the Greens really lose almost a fifth of their support on the back of Natalie Bennett's disastrous interview with Nick Ferrari? The VI figures in David Herdson's thread header above indicate that they alone suffered a sharp downturn over the past month. What else might have caused this?
People deciding that a return to the iron age is not a terribly good idea perhaps.
Britain Elects @britainelects Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.
Whyteleafe, I've been there back in 2008, just inside the London Oystercard area.
Isn't it Whyteleafe, Whyteleafe South and then Caterham at the end of the train line Sunil? I've been along there many many moons ago. Lib Dem gain there though! Is it part of Croydon South or actually in a Surrey seat? Purely of academic interest!
Yes I did all the stations on the Caterham branch that year! And it is in Surrey proper (like Epsom Downs and Tattenham Corner)
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.
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Now obviously his brother is in the US and that is the system. But Ed makes these stupid statements all the time, rather than say, I don't personally have private healthcare, but many people do. However, it is important that the NHS....free at the point of service, yadda yadda yadda...
Now only will the media find a friends and high profile Labour figures who have had private healthcare, but it also alienates those that have it, as he makes it sound like a bad thing.
It is again like him moralizing over totally standard arrangement of your affairs to be tax efficient. Because again most normal people do exactly that, and it doesn't mean they have some dodgy HSBC account in Switzerland or involved in a scheme like Jimmy Carr was.
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.
Wasn't he in America though, so there wasn't really any option!
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.
How would Ed know that ? Did David pick up the phone and ring ED and say, "Ed, I have a private health care plan". I thought they were not even in speaking terms then.
RobD / Surbiton...Read what I said below....It is the fact Ed makes these stupid statements all the time and it fires the starting gun on the media looking for counter examples to his moralizing.
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
How many teachers are there in this country? 10,000? More? Shouldn't be too difficult to find 100 to put their name to anything. (That particular letter is rather uninspiring though.)
Multiply 10000 by 100 ! 922,000 full time posts [ 1.3 million teaching staff ]
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
‘RED ED’ MILIBAND was asked at a Huddersfield factory yesterday how many MPs had private health care. ‘Not me, and not anyone I know,’ the Labour leader declared sanctimoniously. How quickly Miliband minor forgets about his big brother David. When former Foreign Secretary David quit Parliament to run the International Rescue Committee charity, he accepted a huge pay package with ‘generous’ private health care for him and his family.
How would Ed know that ? Did David pick up the phone and ring ED and say, "Ed, I have a private health care plan". I thought they were not even in speaking terms then.
Assuming the whole thing is true !
NON STORY ALERT !!
How many Labour MPs have private health care ? Zero.. Correct answer. David Miliband is not a Labour MP.
Comments
By that I mean which seat
We have recently secured resources and funding, and aim to begin construction of a Death Star by 2016. By focusing our defence resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense.
However, we are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our plan for the construction of the Death Star with their plan to cut the defence budget. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Yours the undersigned....
Look at the numbers in the poll.. Ukip haven't been making contact w the voters
The 35% approach has failed. Particularly in Scotland and swathes of England.
Lisa Nandy could make a go of it, especially if they swing left after defeat.
There hasn't been an election in my life-time where the NHS was THE deciding issue.
It's very, very important, of course, but economic credibility will always trump the NHS in the end...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEPazLTGceI
Staying blue.
This one will be built like a Lockheed Martin Skunkworks project...
I'm not sure these people can break through the dynasty situation with Labour though.
Only those with an enormous ethnic vote can permeate the WMC/WUC dynasties of the Benn's, Milibands, Cooper-Balls, Harman-Dromeys.
The Blairs,Straws, Prescotts are jobs or the boys, literally.
What is she going to say that will make English viewers rate her?
However, nobody knows or cares, which is a pity as it is a foul plant.
To be the complete package for centrist voters the Tories need to be strong on the NHS at least. They have already prepared the ground, the PM and Chancellor have both used the idea that a strong economy is required to fully fund the NHS and I expect Dave will use that tomorrow night. They need to make that link and tomorrow is going to be the best chance to do it:
"Because of our long term economic plan we were able to protect the NHS from cuts and for the next 5 years we intend to do the same, but this time we will guarantee a minimum 2% annual rise in the NHS budget so that we can have the best and most efficient health service in the world. Without a strong economy which only a Conservative government can provide, we would not be able to fully fund the NHS and ensure it remains the world's best healthcare provider".
Or something along those lines. Say it in Dave's voice and I think that is pretty much his answer on the NHS question tomorrow night.
"We stopped tuition fess. In Scotland"
"We scrapped bedroom tax. In Scotland"
How does that appeal to English viewers?
Not sure where David Herdson got his figures from but:
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 6m6 minutes ago
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
Labour lead only 0.1% across the whole of March, was 1.2% in February. There were 51 polls with fieldwork end dates 1st to 31st March, total sample 64,789
You click on someone's name to get to the other page and type Camborne into the search et voila
It was tipped as a good bet by Stuart Dickson and OGH at 40/1, I said it was on my third list of Ukip chances (made in April 2013) which meant 'might be worth a throwaway tenner'
So unless you count 40/1 shots that go 7/2 but like like they're going to lose as touting, In which case you know nothing about betting, think you're wrong
I think you are right, that Scottish voters will rate her above all others, regardless of what happens.
I thought we were discussing who would "win" the debate in terms of coming top of the post debate poll, for the purposes of settling bets on who "won" the debate
I can't see why English viewers of the debate would say she was better than anyone else on the panel given the likely content of her message
It won't hurt Cameron or Farage in the slightest, but left wingers will be wondering where Ed's testicles are.
She, meanwhile, will not care about that as much as whether it keep the juggernaught among Scottish voters going, which it may well do too.
Night all.
She will be appealing to the left in Scotland but for sure the English left will love it.
As for Leanne Wood - well her message must resonate in Ynys Mon, Arfon, Merioyndd (does it really matter there as that is nailed on Plaid country!), Ceredigeon and Carmarthen East and Dinfewr. Does it really matter realistically how she goes down anywhere else other than those 5 constituencies?!! I do like her voice though - there's something very attractive about her Welsh lilt, almost convinces you that the deficit doesn't matter.......cough...splutter....cough!
It'll be interesting to see how much effect it has in places like Beaconsfield and Amersham and places.....adding to the efficiency of the Tory vote this time if they are really on 36% nationally.
Good night all.
Nice to see £309 in there anyway. Now to work out what has settled.
Good job making it to the election boys
Looks like there is a heavy book on him to my eyes at any rate.
Martin Freeman has had a million views on YouTube (or something)....
Oh, and its currently 209,683 views on YouTube.....but heck, it's Labour, where 'truth' trumps 'facts'.....
When I moved up here, this woman I know said: “Ooh! There are a lot of whiteys up there”,’ he told an interviewer in 2008. ‘I said: “I love white people; I’ve no problem with them at all.” The actor, 43, added: ‘The idea was that I was going to complain because there weren’t enough blues dances out here; not enough ragga around. But I’m not bothered by it.
Multiculturalism hasn’t and doesn’t help, because rightly or wrongly it polarises people so much.
‘Racism is one thing, and I don’t agree with that in any form, but noticing that there are differences is normal.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022377/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-White-flight-Red-Ed-s-hobbit.html
------------------
Now obviously his brother is in the US and that is the system. But Ed makes these stupid statements all the time, rather than say, I don't personally have private healthcare, but many people do. However, it is important that the NHS....free at the point of service, yadda yadda yadda...
Now only will the media find a friends and high profile Labour figures who have had private healthcare, but it also alienates those that have it, as he makes it sound like a bad thing.
It is again like him moralizing over totally standard arrangement of your affairs to be tax efficient. Because again most normal people do exactly that, and it doesn't mean they have some dodgy HSBC account in Switzerland or involved in a scheme like Jimmy Carr was.
Assuming the whole thing is true !
http://www.bbc.com/news/education-26973916
How many Labour MPs have private health care ? Zero.. Correct answer. David Miliband is not a Labour MP.
Not very bright some of you people are you ?