I cannot understand why PPB's seem to carry such weight, few bother to watch them. I watched both as they were on Pb.. Doesn't mean I give a fig for the Labour PPB/ but I count in the figures.. as Peter from Putney would say DYOR/
Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
In a 7 way debate the key advice is to focus on communicating what they will do and not to waste energy on knocking 1 or 2 of the others. Who will not follow that advice? Can Farage avoid wasting effort on knocking Cameron? Can the SNP avoid tackling Miliband/Labour? That maybe the key to the eventual "winner". Outside of this, how much more rhetoric about being a "centre party" from Clegg before the LD lefties explode?
I said several weeks ago that Stan Heptinstall was going to be the Lib Dem candidate in Broxtowe . Although he is stepping down from the BC he is remaining a CC - unless he wins , of course
Yes, we've all known for months that it was likely. Stan is well-liked and as Mayor he had a good reason not to declare previously, so we left it to him. But objectively it's difficult to campaign much at this point.
Come on NP don't be shy.. tell us what you think your lead is.. You weren't shy to tell us a couple of months back.. around the time you were telling us that the Labour lead in the polls was "static" at 5%
I guess I'll do the 'still essentially level pegging' comment then. I have to mix it up rather than just still predict a Labour plurality at the least.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
There are...that was the funniest thing about GCHQ slapping themselves on the back thinking they were so clever to get boosts in social media, when few $100 and they could have paid for it.
Well yeah the security and intelligence services are just as much fans of reinventing the wheel (and gold-plating it if they can) as their military cousins. A combination of "national security", secrecy, and tax payer funding is unlikely to deliver great value for money.
The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.
Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.
Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
Ha, ha. I don't think anyone seriously believes Labour will win. I am hardly going out on a limb. Collapse in Scotland + non-advance in much of England = Labour fail. The only real issue in this GE now is how close the Tories get to a majority. With five weeks of EdM yet to come I don't think it's out of the question. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.
Ah, but you do realize that if that transpires I will likely win ALL my wagers with tim (hi, there, big boy) and will be insufferable.
If it happens there'll be many more than you being insufferable. I imagine a few of us will take a break.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
I cannot understand why PPB's seem to carry such weight, few bother to watch them. /
Agreed. So ripe for mockery as well, is it worth it? The same could be said for posters. I guess a certain percentage of people who are swayable will see such things, and a small percentage of those might actually be swayed by them, making it worthwhile, but it's a lot of effort for, in most cases, firing up the base support.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
That is true. In a GE campaign, it's hunting season for the media, so better be sure you have nothing that can pop out.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
What wouldn't CCHQ give for The Cumberbatch to do a forensic rebuttal of Watson's burblings....
'Elementary Watson, once again you see but do not observe.'
One contest in Tandridge in Surrey - completely irrelevant to the GE - we all know which way Surrey's 12 seats are going this time. Even Guildford which provided some fun in the past 3 elections is a foregone conclusion this time.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
As soon as he said BAN it, it was inevitable that the snoops would go looking.. Ed really is a loser.. he cannot think 5 secs ahead. just think what he would be like running the country.. worse than Brown, though that's almost impossible. The only seriously positive thing about the GE in Scotland. MCDoom will be gone.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
They might want to check that they really are paying the living wage while they are at it.
Watching the Freeman PEB again, I appreciate how the parties so carefully word these things, with following a negative comment about their opponent on a specific point with a more general positive one about themselves, without addressing what they would actually do on that specific example.
So Freeman talks about how he could talk about how the Tories would take us on a 'rollercoaster of cuts' while Labour 'will make sure the economy works for all of us'.
That's lovely, and laudable, but Labour's position on cuts is...significantly different? Not so much that it's worth mentioning apparently, let's move on.
At least I remembered that point vaguely from the Labour one before rewatching though, I cannot say I recall much of anything about the Tory one. Something about families I think?
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
Agency work creates issues because control rests with the hirer, but the worker has no contractual relationship with them. The worker finds they do not have a protected relationship with anyone. In a ZHC that isn't the case, although it has its own challenges.
A true ZHC isn't an employment contract (or indeed worker contract) at all, because there is no requirement for the employer to provide work, nor for the "employee" to take what is offered. Whilst Labour want to rid us (after 12 weeks') of this type of ZHC, there is, properly, no other type.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
As soon as he said BAN it, it was inevitable that the snoops would go looking.. Ed really is a loser.. he cannot think 5 secs ahead. just think what he would be like running the country.. worse than Brown, though that's almost impossible. The only seriously positive thing about the GE in Scotland. MCDoom will be gone.
We will see the Quick thinkers in tomorrows leaders debate and who is not.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
Agency work creates issues because control rests with the hirer, but the worker has no contractual relationship with them. The worker finds they do not have a protected relationship with anyone. In a ZHC that isn't the case, although it has its own challenges.
A true ZHC isn't an employment contract (or indeed worker contract) at all, because there is no requirement for the employer to provide work, nor for the "employee" to take what is offered. Whilst Labour want to rid us (after 12 weeks') of this type of ZHC, there is, properly, no other type.
Sure...it was poorly worded of me...Those are good point well made. I was using the term "agency work" loosely and inaccurately. But obviously you know what I mean when I say "agency work".
Fairly flaccid, but if you have plenty to choose from, of course you will use them, though you would not want to rely on it, anyone would use them if they could the same as business leaders. Those with fewer of those will deride the worth of using them at all, but they'd wish to have the opportunity to use them to the same degree.
LabourList @LabourList · Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97
Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.
There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
Agency work creates issues because control rests with the hirer, but the worker has no contractual relationship with them. The worker finds they do not have a protected relationship with anyone. In a ZHC that isn't the case, although it has its own challenges.
A true ZHC isn't an employment contract (or indeed worker contract) at all, because there is no requirement for the employer to provide work, nor for the "employee" to take what is offered. Whilst Labour want to rid us (after 12 weeks') of this type of ZHC, there is, properly, no other type.
Sure...it was poorly worded of me...Those are good point well made.
It certainly tries to respond to the same desire for a flexible workforce. Perhaps, even, as the Agency Workers Directive kicks in, this has driven whatever rise there may have been in ZHCs. (I don't trust the figures one second.)
At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.
That is true. In a GE campaign, it's hunting season for the media, so better be sure you have nothing that can pop out.
(At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff) Do not worry. The wonderful Lucy has it all under control. In Lucy we trust.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
Well do you have an opinion poll for Rochester?
Constituency polls might affect how tactical votes and campaign resources are allocated, but they are no substitute for the overall national picture.
May I ask you a question, where is UKIP's national media campaign, I thought with their new director of communications and with the Express on their back they would be more visible. Instead it's "UKIP suspends candidate" day after day after day, no wonder they are in trouble.
In America party wings know that they wouldn't have positive media coverage so they build their own media outlets, Farage hasn't taken any lessons from Fox News.
Watching the Freeman PEB again, I appreciate how the parties so carefully word these things, with following a negative comment about their opponent on a specific point with a more general positive one about themselves, without addressing what they would actually do on that specific example.
So Freeman talks about how he could talk about how the Tories would take us on a 'rollercoaster of cuts' while Labour 'will make sure the economy works for all of us'.
That's lovely, and laudable, but Labour's position on cuts is...significantly different? Not so much that it's worth mentioning apparently, let's move on.
At least I remembered that point vaguely from the Labour one before rewatching though, I cannot say I recall much of anything about the Tory one. Something about families I think?
Great news,you have just added to labours watching count ;-)
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Things are going well for the Tories.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Nah. Just watching, laughing and eating pop corn as it all unfolds. We have Ed Milliband praying that the polls do not get worse and the new Labour folk desperate to dive in against him. Meanwhile Cleggie the Centre goes as far as he dares with leftie Cable having to fight to stay in the HoC....
Just got a message from someone saying that all of these Labour MPs are going to deny having ZHC workers because Parliament calls it something different even though it is basically the same in practice. Talk about wriggling out.
Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
It would certainly uphold the CON claim that the economy has recovered, a sudden abundance of rich healthy people with secure employment and privately educated children.
Just got a message from someone saying that all of these Labour MPs are going to deny having ZHC workers because Parliament calls it something different even though it is basically the same in practice. Talk about wriggling out.
And let me guess, Ed's new law wouldn't cover it either.
Is this like Ed second kitchen really is his main kitchen, because he doesn't cook in the fully equipped kitchen, because the hired staff do?
Or taking donations to the Labour party in form of sharing, because that was efficient thing to do, but not being the same as Tory tax avoidance?
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
I presume that there will be at least some boost for the less well known party leaders after tomorrow, however brief, at the expense of the big two primarily, so I wonder which side will maintain discipline in the face of that probable slip. I'd say the Tories were holding it together fairly well for the first few days, but on the other hand plenty of Tories still seem to blame not winning a majority purely on Clegg having done well out of the first debate five years ago, which doesn't speak well of their ability to weather the storm or not give too much credence to such an impact.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
Britain Elects @britainelects Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.
I love these LD gains in the locals (which don't seem to happen en masse when they have the rounds of locals rather than by-elections), it just goes so against the national picture that if you tell people about them (and they don't tell you to shut up for being a bore) they surely must be baffled, in most instances, as to what sort of places these gains are happening in, how different from every where else.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda.
Impossible? I doubt it. Surely given how hard the messaging has been on the economy right from the start offers a chance for other issues to gain more prominence even if it were only from the media pushing them out of boredom, and the Tories don't really have any other firm ground to campaign on (it could be argued the economy is not that firm, but it's as firm as they can get), with many of their other successes more controversial and as liable to rile up opponents as much as supporters.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The reason is very obvious
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Things are going well for the Tories.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.
What the Tories need is a similar letter signed by thousands of doctors and nurses around the country (public and private) saying that only the Conservatives can ensure that the NHS is fully funded by having a strong economy. That would be a gamechanger. Tie the NHS into the economy so that every time Labour talk about the it the Tories can talk about needing a strong economy to make sure there is money to pay for it. I don't see such a letter coming any time soon.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
That is rather OTT after 2 days of focus on the Tories home turf. I am sure there will be opportunities for both side to get stuck into the other parties weaknesses.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The reason is very obvious
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
I've still got Clegg just about hanging on in Hallam - after 5 weeks of wall to wall coverage of him and the name recognition factor I still think he will just about be ok. I'm surprised at the Tory fall in Hallam vis a vis the Labour rise which implies some direct Tory Labour switching there as well as the obvious Lib Dem to Labour swing. Does anyone know why the Tory vote is so depressed there? - I can't for one minute think its any Tories voting Labour tactically to get rid of Clegg. And its not as though the seat demographics have shifted to Labour, as far as I know its still the middle class enclave of Sheffield. I can believe that Sheffield Labour have been targeting the seat en masse for the past 5 years but it still doesn't fully explain for me the apparent movements we're seeing in the Ashcroft poll. .
Like you, I interpreted the fall in Tory vote and rise in Lab vote in Hallam (and Cambridge) as some direct Tory Labour switching.
But on reflection, I think it is far more likely that there has been a lot of LD switching to Labour (student fees, tactical unwind) offset by Tory tactical voting for LDs. It results in a net Tory to Lab switch but it disguises two different movements..
This is the first time I have seen evidence of Tory tactical voting for LDs. If this is more widespread, it may help LDs in marginals - including in Scotland with a Tory tactical vote against the SNP in LD/SNP marginals. There may also be LD tactical voting for Lab in Lab/SNP marginals.
Net result is good news for LDs (and possibly Lab in Scotland but not in England) and bad news for SNP. This may not be being picked up by the models.
Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.
Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.
Newsnight has seemingly given up on serious reporting and is instead offering some kind of Come Dine With Me/Gogglebox nightmare in which thick people talk about 'da ishoos'.
Yearly emigration from the UK is "about 3,000", was one gem.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
That is rather OTT after 2 days of focus on the Tories home turf. I am sure there will be opportunities for both side to get stuck into the other parties weaknesses.
No - i genuinely believe labour will not recover from this - conservatives most seats and possibly a small majority
Britain Elects @britainelects Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.
Whyteleafe, I've been there back in 2008, just inside the London Oystercard area.
Isn't it Whyteleafe, Whyteleafe South and then Caterham at the end of the train line Sunil? I've been along there many many moons ago. Lib Dem gain there though! Is it part of Croydon South or actually in a Surrey seat? Purely of academic interest!
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
How many teachers are there in this country? 10,000? More? Shouldn't be too difficult to find 100 to put their name to anything. (That particular letter is rather uninspiring though.)
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The reason is very obvious
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The reason is very obvious
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
A constituency poll can cost around £20k.
The limit for the long campaign is 30k
The short campaign limit is 9k
I'll do it for £10k.
Are you BPC registered?
Do I have to be?
Membership's only £250 anyway...
I didn't mean to be curt, only that polling is a rather more expensive business than one might imagine, and therefore the effect on election expenses rather more significant.
Contrast the Lib Dem drop there with how they're going on in the Cornish seats that they hold - an absolutely staggering difference! I remember going through the constituency in the run up to the 1997 election when Seb Coe was fighting a cause in vain there, with Candy Atherton stickers up all over the place.
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
Dear Telegraph,
We are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our educational system. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Not sure such a bitter, empty and poorly written letter is worthy of getting on the front page. They would have been better sending the Telegraph a picture of Tories eating babies with note "print this".
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
They lost the election in autumn 2010.
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
Again, that is just random people who may or may not be teachers signing an internet petition. I'm amazed that a legitimate journalist would take it seriously.
I also hope that person is not a teacher, the English is horrible.
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
How many teachers are there in this country? 10,000? More? Shouldn't be too difficult to find 100 to put their name to anything. (That particular letter is rather uninspiring though.)
Supply side partisans - thinking the schools are run for their benefit.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The reason is very obvious
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
That is rather OTT after 2 days of focus on the Tories home turf. I am sure there will be opportunities for both side to get stuck into the other parties weaknesses.
No - i genuinely believe labour will not recover from this - conservatives most seats and possibly a small majority
Absolutely everything would have to go right for the Conservatives to get anywhere near 326 seats - that would imply 15-20 Lib Dem gains and a few net gains off Labour - which simply isn't going to happen unless there is an (unlikely) left field moment in the campaign where Labour drop the ball completely.
Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.
Things are going well for the Tories.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.
In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging to Labour I think.
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
It's also damaging because people remember Labour had the support of buisness from 1997 to 2005. Blair and Mandy didn't spend so much time and effort cultivating links with the business community for nothing. They did it because they knew it was important to be economically credible.
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.
What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail
That is rather OTT after 2 days of focus on the Tories home turf. I am sure there will be opportunities for both side to get stuck into the other parties weaknesses.
No - i genuinely believe labour will not recover from this - conservatives most seats and possibly a small majority
Absolutely everything would have to go right for the Conservatives to get anywhere near 326 seats - that would imply 15-20 Lib Dem gains and a few net gains off Labour - which simply isn't going to happen unless there is an (unlikely) left field moment in the campaign where Labour drop the ball completely.
Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.
Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.
Of course - but Con can only do anything about their own score.
Blindingly obvious that even if Con rises from 2010, Lab could rise more from its 2010 (and it almost certainly will rise more) - which will mean net Lab gains from Con.
Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence. Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change? Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both. Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage. Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk
How many teachers are there in this country? 10,000? More? Shouldn't be too difficult to find 100 to put their name to anything. (That particular letter is rather uninspiring though.)
Supply side partisans - thinking the schools are run for their benefit.
Top businessmen probably think their businesses are run for their benefit - and they probably are!
Comments
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384730227351552
There is still a long way to go.
Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)
Me too.
In a GE campaign, it's hunting season for the media, so better be sure you have nothing that can pop out.
Goodnight.
Come on UKIP - up your game in Rotherham and Rother Valley.
How flaccid an argument is that ?
I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe
Labour propose a policy which would destroy jobs....
...and as allies would have people who would destroy our nuclear deterrent and our place in the world.
So Freeman talks about how he could talk about how the Tories would take us on a 'rollercoaster of cuts' while Labour 'will make sure the economy works for all of us'.
That's lovely, and laudable, but Labour's position on cuts is...significantly different? Not so much that it's worth mentioning apparently, let's move on.
At least I remembered that point vaguely from the Labour one before rewatching though, I cannot say I recall much of anything about the Tory one. Something about families I think?
A true ZHC isn't an employment contract (or indeed worker contract) at all, because there is no requirement for the employer to provide work, nor for the "employee" to take what is offered. Whilst Labour want to rid us (after 12 weeks') of this type of ZHC, there is, properly, no other type.
@LucyMPowell: “@clevelandminer: @LucyMPowell you employ people on zero hour contracts, dont you think you are being hypocritical?” No I don't.
In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).
There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.
It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.
Do you think the SE is behaving differently?
The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.
It certainly tries to respond to the same desire for a flexible workforce. Perhaps, even, as the Agency Workers Directive kicks in, this has driven whatever rise there may have been in ZHCs. (I don't trust the figures one second.)
Do not worry. The wonderful Lucy has it all under control. In Lucy we trust.
Constituency polls might affect how tactical votes and campaign resources are allocated, but they are no substitute for the overall national picture.
May I ask you a question, where is UKIP's national media campaign, I thought with their new director of communications and with the Express on their back they would be more visible.
Instead it's "UKIP suspends candidate" day after day after day, no wonder they are in trouble.
In America party wings know that they wouldn't have positive media coverage so they build their own media outlets, Farage hasn't taken any lessons from Fox News.
I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.
The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.
There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...
Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.
My guess is that Cameron will literally stand to his side and leave them to it.
Is this like Ed second kitchen really is his main kitchen, because he doesn't cook in the fully equipped kitchen, because the hired staff do?
Or taking donations to the Labour party in form of sharing, because that was efficient thing to do, but not being the same as Tory tax avoidance?
As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets
1) Private polling costs a lot
2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.
A constituency poll can cost around £20k.
The limit for the long campaign is 30k
The short campaign limit is 9k
What the Tories need is a similar letter signed by thousands of doctors and nurses around the country (public and private) saying that only the Conservatives can ensure that the NHS is fully funded by having a strong economy. That would be a gamechanger. Tie the NHS into the economy so that every time Labour talk about the it the Tories can talk about needing a strong economy to make sure there is money to pay for it. I don't see such a letter coming any time soon.
LD 393 Con 274 UKIP 119 Swing Con to LDem of 15.3%
Incidentally Harry's thread is in error , the last result in the ward was in May 2014
Con 470 LD 300 UKIP 216 Lab 116
But on reflection, I think it is far more likely that there has been a lot of LD switching to Labour (student fees, tactical unwind) offset by Tory tactical voting for LDs. It results in a net Tory to Lab switch but it disguises two different movements..
This is the first time I have seen evidence of Tory tactical voting for LDs. If this is more widespread, it may help LDs in marginals - including in Scotland with a Tory tactical vote against the SNP in LD/SNP marginals. There may also be LD tactical voting for Lab in Lab/SNP marginals.
Net result is good news for LDs (and possibly Lab in Scotland but not in England) and bad news for SNP. This may not be being picked up by the models.
Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.
Yearly emigration from the UK is "about 3,000", was one gem.
As the kids might say
#lamentable
Membership's only £250 anyway...
I didn't mean to be curt, only that polling is a rather more expensive business than one might imagine, and therefore the effect on election expenses rather more significant.
We are deeply concerned that a Conservative government will damage our educational system. Like the business leaders who wrote to you yesterday we would like to use your pages to urge your readers to vote accordingly and we look forward to front page coverage of our issues tomorrow.
Not sure such a bitter, empty and poorly written letter is worthy of getting on the front page. They would have been better sending the Telegraph a picture of Tories eating babies with note "print this".
They needed a leader. They chose Ed (rolls eyes). They needed a break with the Brown era. They didn't make it.
The new generation of Labourites need to take control and dump the pre-2010 cohort. They have had their time and their record is negatively etched on the electorate's memory.
Labour are in the Hague phase with Ed. They can skip IDS if they are smart enough.
I also hope that person is not a teacher, the English is horrible.
And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....
It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....
It's also damaging because people remember Labour had the support of buisness from 1997 to 2005. Blair and Mandy didn't spend so much time and effort cultivating links with the business community for nothing. They did it because they knew it was important to be economically credible.
As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.
Blindingly obvious that even if Con rises from 2010, Lab could rise more from its 2010 (and it almost certainly will rise more) - which will mean net Lab gains from Con.
Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.
The Winner? Sturgeon.