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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Company bosses who have now added their names:
    Duncan Cheatle, Prelude Group
    Rob Cotton, NCC Group
    Michel de Carvalho, Citi Private Bank
    John Gildersleeve, British Land
    Michael Grade CBE, Pinewood Studios
    Olivia Hall, BPVA
    Ken Harvey CBE, Pennon Group
    Paul Kelly, Selfridges
    Julie Meyer, Ariadne Capital
    Simon Oliver, Pi Capital
    Simon Pryce, BBA Aviation
    Dominic Sandivasci, Pirelli UK
    Guy Schwinge, Dukes Auctions
    Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca
    David Suddens, Dr Martens
    Holly Tucker, notonthehighstreet.com
    Tim Weller, Incisive Media

    Get googling....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    The Telegraph seem to have become a full time house mag for the Tories. I remember when it used to be a newspaper
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,858

    MP_SE said:

    In my opinion Mark Reckless is one of the finest politicians of the last few years. His speech on foreign aid in the face of widespread opposition was nothing short of inspiring. An honest, principled man. Something you do not see much of these days in politics.


    That would also explain his unpopularity in the Conservative party.
    Honest and principled? Don't make me laugh. He is as TSE might put it, a treacherous pigdog, who deserves unseating.
    TSE is planning to vote Lib Dem I heard earlier. Hardly in a position to call anyone else treacherous.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Roger said:

    The Telegraph seem to have become a full time house mag for the Tories. I remember when it used to be a newspaper

    The BBC does the same for Labour under the fig leaf of impartiality. At least the Telegraph doesn't pretend to be anything other than a Tory cheerleader.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear. Ellie had such a promising career...

    @politicshome: Ed Miliband pleads guity to being a geek and says he loves Ellie Goulding http://t.co/ZX9Zx6pSkE http://t.co/YeAtaz9YI8
  • Danny565 said:

    I predict a larger Lab lead with YouGov tonight

    You know it's going to be a Tory lead, and are simply trying to coax out some good quotes from us PBLabourites, aren't you?
    I reckon next Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues may provide some extreme outliers because of the debate and the holidays.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    The Telegraph seem to have become a full time house mag for the Tories. I remember when it used to be a newspaper

    Roger .. you are two wrapped up in the house mag for hypocrites aka the Guardian.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    I predict a larger Lab lead with YouGov tonight

    Boo. YouGov can take a walk*.

    *unless it's a whopping Tory lead, in which case Gold Standard
    I just want to see another night of Labour posters and SeanT getting overexcited by one poll.

    Saturday night was hilarious.
    To be fair, I panicked too. It led to me getting battered and watching a Liam Neeson film (at my wife's suggestion) to calm me down.

    She is now calling me to watch Interstellar on BluRay, which we've just bought. There is no argument: duty calls.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sounds like standard Victorian sexual fantasy in the days before the corridor coaches. See link

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/ob25723

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear. Ellie had such a promising career...

    @politicshome: Ed Miliband pleads guity to being a geek and says he loves Ellie Goulding http://t.co/ZX9Zx6pSkE http://t.co/YeAtaz9YI8

    Maybe somebody should ask him to sing one of her tunes during the debate :-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BorisJohnson: Good evening Twittersphere. This is Boris, communicating to you live and direct. Watch this space for my updates from the campaign trail...
  • I predict a larger Lab lead with YouGov tonight

    Boo. YouGov can take a walk*.

    *unless it's a whopping Tory lead, in which case Gold Standard
    I just want to see another night of Labour posters and SeanT getting overexcited by one poll.

    Saturday night was hilarious.
    To be fair, I panicked too. It led to me getting battered and watching a Liam Neeson film (at my wife's suggestion) to calm me down.

    She is now calling me to watch Interstellar on BluRay, which we've just bought. There is no argument: duty calls.
    Interstellar bored the pants of me at the cinema, I was looking forward to it, as I love Scifi, Chris Nolan films and Anne Hathaway
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Danny565 said:

    LMAO at "attacks enterprise".

    I remember when the broadsheets atleast pretended to be objective.
    Danny565 said:

    LMAO at "attacks enterprise".

    I remember when the broadsheets atleast pretended to be objective.
    They still make some effort I think, language wise at least - I'm still stunned every time I read a story in the Mail or Mirror which tend to open like 'Pathetic and weak X begged forgiveness for being such a wimp' or words to that effect.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Roger said:

    The Telegraph seem to have become a full time house mag for the Tories. I remember when it used to be a newspaper

    You know that usually it's called the Torygraph, but what did you expect during a GE campaign.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @BorisJohnson: Good evening Twittersphere. This is Boris, communicating to you live and direct. Watch this space for my updates from the campaign trail...

    Is twitter big enough for Boris? Is there not a place for Boris-Sphere...
  • MP_SE said:

    In my opinion Mark Reckless is one of the finest politicians of the last few years. His speech on foreign aid in the face of widespread opposition was nothing short of inspiring. An honest, principled man. Something you do not see much of these days in politics.


    That would also explain his unpopularity in the Conservative party.
    Honest and principled? Don't make me laugh. He is as TSE might put it, a treacherous pigdog, who deserves unseating.
    TSE is planning to vote Lib Dem I heard earlier. Hardly in a position to call anyone else treacherous.
    I'm voting for the candidate that is more likely to ensure the Tories remain in power.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    @sean F
    We were talking IQ before. If I was to guess who has the largest IQ within the pbCOM community, I would say you, definitely. Maybe Jack W and Rod Crosby close by. You have an ability to get your thoughts concisely and often quite superbly into one sentence, sometimes even less.
    All that intelligence, and all twisted into a backward, frightening right wing narrative on the world. What a waste. You will be overtaken by events comrade.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LMAO at "attacks enterprise".

    I remember when the broadsheets atleast pretended to be objective.
    Danny565 said:

    LMAO at "attacks enterprise".

    I remember when the broadsheets atleast pretended to be objective.
    They still make some effort I think, language wise at least - I'm still stunned every time I read a story in the Mail or Mirror which tend to open like 'Pathetic and weak X begged forgiveness for being such a wimp' or words to that effect.
    In times gone by, they would've atleast phrased it as "Tories accuse Labour of attacking enterprise" rather than having the temerity to state it as fact.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    We're getting a bit leafleted out in Broxtowe - most households have now had 3-4 each from Labour and Tories, and I'm starting to hear "mercy, no more" comments. The other parties have been virtually silent so far, and everyone accepts that it's a two-horse race (which doesn't mean that some people won't vote for others, just that they accept that it means abstaining on the choice of MP). The LibDem candidate (a retiring borough councillor who was mayor before - nice guy) has now materialised, and is politely urging people to vote LibDem at least in the local elections.

    The off-beat element is this outfit, who are standing here and in Sherwood and one other E Mids seat:

    https://j4mb.wordpress.com/

    I said several weeks ago that Stan Heptinstall was going to be the Lib Dem candidate in Broxtowe . Although he is stepping down from the BC he is remaining a CC - unless he wins , of course
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    LMAO at "attacks enterprise".

    I remember when the broadsheets atleast pretended to be objective.
    Two resounding anti-Labour stories and a fab picture to boot. Has the Telegraph decided to support the Tories after all??

    I don't recall ever hearing Samantha Cameron speak before, she was briefly on the radio today, and was disappointingly quite ordinary sounding, she sounded not half as posh as I had assumed she would.
  • We're getting a bit leafleted out in Broxtowe - most households have now had 3-4 each from Labour and Tories, and I'm starting to hear "mercy, no more" comments.

    I read the first leaflet from each of the candidates here in Lincoln - anything after that goes unread and straight into the recycling pile along with the takeaway menus and supermarket flyers. I can't say fairer than that.

  • And Jessica Chastain, how could I forget her.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: NEW: First view of the ITV #leadersdebate studio. Which will air at 8pm tomorrow with @julieetchitv http://t.co/M16cPp2aKY

    So from right to left we have Wood, Salmond, Cameron, Miliband, Farage, Clegg and Bennett.

    Miliband will be in the centre flanked by Farage on his left and Cameron on his right from the audience point of view.
    I think the adverts and cinema marquee branding gives us the reason why the TV wanted the debates. They want to be the ones bigged up - not democracy.
    Ignoring your inclusion of Salmond, if your running order is right then all the talk the other day was a waste of time. An early April fool?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,858
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear. Ellie had such a promising career...

    @politicshome: Ed Miliband pleads guity to being a geek and says he loves Ellie Goulding http://t.co/ZX9Zx6pSkE http://t.co/YeAtaz9YI8

    He and his team are dreadful. It's all very well (and in fact his best route to success) to own up to being a geek, but the corollary of geekiness is braininess, and being 'the man with the plan'. Despite continually telling us what a brain box he is, there's no actual evidence of cleverness, and no evidence of a plan. Therefore there are no benefits to weigh against being awkward and odd looking.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    MP_SE said:

    In my opinion Mark Reckless is one of the finest politicians of the last few years. His speech on foreign aid in the face of widespread opposition was nothing short of inspiring. An honest, principled man. Something you do not see much of these days in politics.


    That would also explain his unpopularity in the Conservative party.
    Honest and principled? Don't make me laugh. He is as TSE might put it, a treacherous pigdog, who deserves unseating.
    TSE is planning to vote Lib Dem I heard earlier. Hardly in a position to call anyone else treacherous.
    I'm voting for the candidate that is more likely to ensure the Tories remain in power.
    The one who vetoed your EU Commissioner choice?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,971
    edited April 2015

    MP_SE said:

    In my opinion Mark Reckless is one of the finest politicians of the last few years. His speech on foreign aid in the face of widespread opposition was nothing short of inspiring. An honest, principled man. Something you do not see much of these days in politics.


    That would also explain his unpopularity in the Conservative party.
    Honest and principled? Don't make me laugh. He is as TSE might put it, a treacherous pigdog, who deserves unseating.
    TSE is planning to vote Lib Dem I heard earlier. Hardly in a position to call anyone else treacherous.
    I'm voting for the candidate that is more likely to ensure the Tories remain in power.
    The one who vetoed your EU Commissioner choice?
    Yes, he vetoed my 25/1 bet. I'll forgive him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Hmm.
    I didn't see that one until now.

    It's a very good ad. It mentions all the usual political things about cuts, deficits, the NHS ect ect under the abstract of a culture war of "Normal people vs Tories".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbHNVtsAD2M
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Where are they getting the numbers from, YouTube says 200,000, so are they combining it with PEB figures. In that case, why aren't they doing the same for the Tories' figure.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Clegg again being relegated to just a quick mention in the 2-minute "round-up" at the end of the News. The Lib Dems have really gotten written completely out of the script of the election.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    "Yes" won the online war by a country mile.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 10s 10 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

  • @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

    Can we all hear a Hell Yeah...we won the PEB war....oh...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2015
    BOOM

    PB Red-team can stand down from their keyboards, see you tomorrow night instead perhaps?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Strange how the YouTube video had under 200k views when I checked earlier this evening.

    I never believe online stats - they are so open to abuse.

    And Freeman's shameless hypocrisy rather undermines his overly scripted message
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

    SMOKIN!!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Anyone seen the YouGov result yet? #overkill
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: NEW: First view of the ITV #leadersdebate studio. Which will air at 8pm tomorrow with @julieetchitv http://t.co/M16cPp2aKY

    So from right to left we have Wood, Salmond, Cameron, Miliband, Farage, Clegg and Bennett.

    Miliband will be in the centre flanked by Farage on his left and Cameron on his right from the audience point of view.
    I think the adverts and cinema marquee branding gives us the reason why the TV wanted the debates. They want to be the ones bigged up - not democracy.
    Ignoring your inclusion of Salmond, if your running order is right then all the talk the other day was a waste of time. An early April fool?
    Oh yeah, its Sturgeon not Salmond, I do confuse the dejure leader of the SNP with the defacto one sometimes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

    Can we all hear a Hell Yeah...we won the PEB war....oh...
    #HellYeah!!!!!!!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Lab HQ tonight:

    ....But that Martin Freeman ad was so good, wasn't it?....

    ;-)
  • So what was yougov then....
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    UKIP holding steady!!1!!

    Hopefully see a rally as a result of the debates. Onwards and upwards.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    70% for main two parties. Are we seeing a polarisation of the vote?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    FYI...Twitter followers, youtube views, etc, very very easy to bolster, via "genuine" measures and dodgier means.

    I personally never resorted to the dodgy means, but I certain use the above board methods to bolster numbers for my business interests.



  • With the exception of Balls, losing his seat, nothing would give me greater pleasure than Reckless being ousted.

    Bercow loosing would be the ultimate moment

    (confession-i knew him at univ of Essex -we hated each other and he is a PROPER GRADE A C*CK)
    I called him out on a number of things (I doubt Mike has the insurance for me to repeat or allude to) and I was "asked to leave" ie chucked out of the YC students.

    Which was a shame as I was "in " with Tory Jane the political Groupie :( !!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    When are the Blues going to get 37%? Must be soon, surely!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Cyclefree said:

    Since BJO helpfully pointed out that 1 in 5 of those businessmen signing the pro-Tory letter were given honours by Cameron, perhaps someone could remind us:-

    1. How many people giving donations to Labour were given honours by Labour;
    2. Which party honoured the megalomaniac CEO of a bank which nearly brought down the economy and is costing all of us a packet;
    3. Which party was investigated by the police over "cash for honours"; and
    4. Which party has the distinction of providing the first serving Prime Minister to be interviewed under caution while still in office.

    Point of order Ms Cyclefree, Blair was never questioned under caution. He does hold the distinction of being the First Prime Minister questioned in Downing Street.

    His associates told the police, Blair would resign if he was questioned under caution.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1546588/Police-told-Blair-would-resign-if-cautioned.html
    Damn, was it really that easy to have got rid of him?
    I could have lent you the fancy dress uniform.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    What's the YouGov guys? Has anyone posted it yet?

    Oh.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    After last night 1% LAB lead latest YouGov Sun poll has
    CON 36
    LAB 34
    LD 8
    UKIP 13
    GN 4

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568


    I said several weeks ago that Stan Heptinstall was going to be the Lib Dem candidate in Broxtowe . Although he is stepping down from the BC he is remaining a CC - unless he wins , of course

    Yes, we've all known for months that it was likely. Stan is well-liked and as Mayor he had a good reason not to declare previously, so we left it to him. But objectively it's difficult to campaign much at this point.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Crossover is going to look a lot more obvious when that 4% Labour lead outlier drops out....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • RobD said:

    When are the Blues going to get 37%? Must be soon, surely!

    Where's Ave it = he'd be calling 40% next stop.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 42s42 seconds ago
    Labour's monthly "Super-ELBOW" lead slashed by 1.1% - only 0.1% for March (was 1.2 for February)

  • JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
  • People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Watching or laughing at his sanctimonious hypocrisy.

    You choose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    I guess I'll do the 'still essentially level pegging' comment then. I have to mix it up rather than just still predict a Labour plurality at the least.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    70% for main two parties. Are we seeing a polarisation of the vote?

    When Prime Minister Ed is at stake, it was always likely to concentrate minds. I can live with 39 Con, 31Labour....

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    kle4 said:

    I guess I'll do the 'still essentially level pegging' comment then. I have to mix it up rather than just still predict a Labour plurality at the least.

    I think the Tories have edged in front.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    RobD said:

    Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Almost a mirror image of the UKIP nosedive.

    Strange. I thought UKIP voters were never going to go back to the Tories?

    ;-)

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800



    With the exception of Balls, losing his seat, nothing would give me greater pleasure than Reckless being ousted.

    Bercow loosing would be the ultimate moment

    (confession-i knew him at univ of Essex -we hated each other and he is a PROPER GRADE A C*CK)
    I called him out on a number of things (I doubt Mike has the insurance for me to repeat or allude to) and I was "asked to leave" ie chucked out of the YC students.

    Which was a shame as I was "in " with Tory Jane the political Groupie :( !!!!

    I would dearly love Vince Cable to lose his seat, got nothing against him whatsoever but it would ensure that Mike's grubby attempt to subvert democracy comes to nothing.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
    The large white space was asking for it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
    That works for me.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    Not sure where David Herdson got his figures from but:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 6m6 minutes ago
    Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208

    Labour lead only 0.1% across the whole of March, was 1.2% in February. There were 51 polls with fieldwork end dates 1st to 31st March, total sample 64,789
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    compouter said:



    *tumbleweed*

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Lab only led yesterday's YouGov by 6 people - but rounded to a 1% Lab lead.

    Con led the Mon night YouGov by 13 people - but it rounded to a tie.

    OK, the above is false precision - but put it all together - since the Sunday Times YouGov we now have six polls that collectively look pretty good for Con.

    ComRes - Con +4
    Ashcroft - Con +2
    TNS - Con +1
    YouGov (Mon) - Tie (Con ahead by 13 people)
    YouGov (Tue) - Lab +1 (Lab ahead by 6 people)
    YouGov (Wed) - Con +2

    All very fine margins but taken together has to be encouraging for Con.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
    That works for me.
    But you have to buy me lunch and before May 7th!
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
    That works for me.
    But you have to buy me lunch and before May 7th!
    I'll drop you an email in the morning with some dates.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    FYI...Twitter followers, youtube views, etc, very very easy to bolster, via "genuine" measures and dodgier means.

    I personally never resorted to the dodgy means, but I certain use the above board methods to bolster numbers for my business interests.

    GCHQ have a tool called GESTATOR for boosting YouTube viewership. I doubt that they are the only organisation with such software, and I dare say that such things are also available commercially.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).

    Ha, ha. I don't think anyone seriously believes Labour will win. I am hardly going out on a limb. Collapse in Scotland + non-advance in much of England = Labour fail. The only real issue in this GE now is how close the Tories get to a majority. With five weeks of EdM yet to come I don't think it's out of the question. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    RobD said:

    Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    That movement since the Ashcroft marginals polling is probably enough to put Torbay, St Ives and North Cornwall into the blue column....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Evening all. I am down on the IoW visiting some elderly family with slightly patchy internet. After getting nothing from yougov for a couple of weeks, it seems that I am on the panel for tommorow night with a tindr type app to swipe left and right depending on what I like. Should be fun!

    My problem now is to persuade my elderly hosts that they really do want to spend a couple of hours watching the seven dwarves. Any suggestions welcome...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    RobD said:

    When are the Blues going to get 37%? Must be soon, surely!

    36 has been rescued, the charge of the Gallant 100 has saved it. They ride back up the valley of dearth of decent headlines, their anachronistic pin striped Saville Row uniforms covered in the mud thrown at them. But '36' rides proudly at their head ready to fight again.

    Flash spotters and sound rangers are now searching out to target 37.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    glw said:

    FYI...Twitter followers, youtube views, etc, very very easy to bolster, via "genuine" measures and dodgier means.

    I personally never resorted to the dodgy means, but I certain use the above board methods to bolster numbers for my business interests.

    GCHQ have a tool called GESTATOR for boosting YouTube viewership. I doubt that they are the only organisation with such software, and I dare say that such things are also available commercially.
    There are...that was the funniest thing about GCHQ slapping themselves on the back thinking they were so clever to get boosts in social media, when few $100 and they could have paid for it.
  • Emily Maitlis reveals more than she wanted to.
    Maitliss to Martin Sorrell "...and isnt it right that what WE are looking for is a range of people signing these letters?"
    Martin Sorrell "We? If by we , we are talking about the Labour party...."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Former Labour cabinet minister. “Labour has spent 5 years kicking business, you can’t just turn that around suddenly" http://t.co/znEjOByygh

    File under N for No ...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
    That works for me.
    But you have to buy me lunch and before May 7th!
    I'll drop you an email in the morning with some dates.
    sound man. By the way I have also granted an old friend a Comprehensive Dispensation to vote for Lynne Featherstone rather than exercising the franchise on behalf of Peter Bone.

    I am Pure Goodness.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    Members of the EOR Society were informed by email this morning so I already knew :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    Emily Maitlis reveals more than she wanted to.
    Maitliss to Martin Sorrell "...and isnt it right that what WE are looking for is a range of people signing these letters?"
    Martin Sorrell "We? If by we , we are talking about the Labour party...."

    I believe they call that at the BBC doing a "Jim".
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Almost a mirror image of the UKIP nosedive.

    Strange. I thought UKIP voters were never going to go back to the Tories?

    ;-)

    Surely Lynton Crosby has planned carpet love bombing of Kippers in the last campaign week " vote Nigel get Ed" repeat ad infinitum? Simple. Focussed. And it rings true ' cos it is. Not at all sure it'll be enough to keep Ed out with his Tartan support though.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).

    Ha, ha. I don't think anyone seriously believes Labour will win. I am hardly going out on a limb. Collapse in Scotland + non-advance in much of England = Labour fail. The only real issue in this GE now is how close the Tories get to a majority. With five weeks of EdM yet to come I don't think it's out of the question. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.

    Ah, but you do realize that if that transpires I will likely win ALL my wagers with tim (hi, there, big boy) and will be insufferable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @toadmeister: Dale Vince, the green businessman on #Newsnight who’s signed Labour’s letter, is a tax avoider http://t.co/v3Mxwujdyi
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Freggles said:

    Anyone seen the YouGov result yet? #overkill

    welcome to sadpoliticalobsessives.com
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    The way Labour have responded to the letter may well make the text books in years to come of how not to. How much longer will pride stop Ed grovelling to Mandy? He really can't leave it much longer or it will be too late.

    Looks to be too late already. It's very hard to see how the Tories won't get most seats and possibly even a wafer thin majority.

    Can you PLEASE start predicting a Labour victory? I'll even pay you a fiver for so doing (albeit on a zero hours contract).
    John, can you tell me voting Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam is the right thing for a Tory to do?
    A Plenary Indulgence is on its way.
    That works for me.
    But you have to buy me lunch and before May 7th!
    I'll drop you an email in the morning with some dates.
    sound man. By the way I have also granted an old friend a Comprehensive Dispensation to vote for Lynne Featherstone rather than exercising the franchise on behalf of Peter Bone.

    I am Pure Goodness.
    Yes you are.

    We should have had a coupon election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Dair said:

    People may sneer at him but ....


    LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
    Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

    Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.
    The large white space was asking for it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8
    What wouldn't CCHQ give for The Cumberbatch to do a forensic rebuttal of Watson's burblings....
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    I'm shocked

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

    Milliband is such a Dingbat.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Almost a mirror image of the UKIP nosedive.

    Strange. I thought UKIP voters were never going to go back to the Tories?

    ;-)

    I've said for a few weeks that plenty of soft Kippers may return to the Tories but the WWC that have left Labour will never go back.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Fascinating Ashcroft polls today, I knew Huppert was personally popular in Cambridge, but those numbers still took me by surprise.

    I've still got Clegg just about hanging on in Hallam - after 5 weeks of wall to wall coverage of him and the name recognition factor I still think he will just about be ok. I'm surprised at the Tory fall in Hallam vis a vis the Labour rise which implies some direct Tory Labour switching there as well as the obvious Lib Dem to Labour swing. Does anyone know why the Tory vote is so depressed there? - I can't for one minute think its any Tories voting Labour tactically to get rid of Clegg. And its not as though the seat demographics have shifted to Labour, as far as I know its still the middle class enclave of Sheffield. I can believe that Sheffield Labour have been targeting the seat en masse for the past 5 years but it still doesn't fully explain for me the apparent movements we're seeing in the Ashcroft poll.

    Devon North took me by surprise - apart from the infamous Jeremy Thorpe fallout which made it a Tory seat between 1979 and 1992, its been Liberal since the dawn of time, so I'm still not convinced the Tories are going to take it - I had that as one of the Lib Dem holdouts in the SW before today, with all 3 of the Cornish seats going, although there's a couple they're just holding on in with Torbay being on a knifedge too.

    I'd like to see Ashcroft polls in places like Bath and Cheltenham to guage how the Lib Dems are going to go on in their compact urban middle class seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    What you wont be hearing about on the BBC tomorrow...instead they will be going big with Labour's petition from 100 randoms.
This discussion has been closed.