politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

Over half of ZHC jobs are in the public sector working in social care, education and healthcare. Labour are shitting on their own doorstep.

Tykejohnno said:

Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a two-point lead: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%

In a 7 way debate the key advice is to focus on communicating what they will do and not to waste energy on knocking 1 or 2 of the others. Who will not follow that advice? Can Farage avoid wasting effort on knocking Cameron? Can the SNP avoid tackling Miliband/Labour? That maybe the key to the eventual "winner". Outside of this, how much more rhetoric about being a "centre party" from Clegg before the LD lefties explode?

TGOHF said:

@toadmeister: Dale Vince, the green businessman on #Newsnight who’s signed Labour’s letter, is a tax avoider http://t.co/v3Mxwujdyi

This is what happens when they have such a fast whip round for signatures. No due diligence on who they are getting to sign it.

RobD said:

Just look at that Tory surge on the 15-day average plot.

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

There looks to be a lot more volatility there for the Tory vote than the Labour vote.

There is still a long way to go.

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

I guess I'll do the 'still essentially level pegging' comment then. I have to mix it up rather than just still predict a Labour plurality at the least.

I think the Tories have edged in front.

This week

I was at the florist's today. She kept complaining about her Zero Flowers Contract! :

FrancisUrquhart said:

There are...that was the funniest thing about GCHQ slapping themselves on the back thinking they were so clever to get boosts in social media, when few $100 and they could have paid for it.

Well yeah the security and intelligence services are just as much fans of reinventing the wheel (and gold-plating it if they can) as their military cousins. A combination of "national security", secrecy, and tax payer funding is unlikely to deliver great value for money.

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.

I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.

Totally on topic - I have just realised... We are having by elections. Now!? Does it really matter that the are local??

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tykejohnno said:

People may sneer at him but ....


LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.

The large white space was asking for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8

What wouldn't CCHQ give for The Cumberbatch to do a forensic rebuttal of Watson's burblings....

'Elementary Watson, once again you see but do not observe.'

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

That the Daily Mail has an anti Ed Miliband headline ?

Me too.

Charles said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tykejohnno said:

People may sneer at him but ....


LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.

The large white space was asking for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8

What wouldn't CCHQ give for The Cumberbatch to do a forensic rebuttal of Watson's burblings....

Kill his career,didn't you know,tories eat babies. ;-)

Don't forget it would be one OE helping out another...

Do we know if he's a tory supporter,he's a actor,10% chance of him a tory ;-)

FrancisUrquhart said:

SquareRoot said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.

I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.

There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.

Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)

As soon as he said BAN it, it was inevitable that the snoops would go looking.. Ed really is a loser.. he cannot think 5 secs ahead. just think what he would be like running the country.. worse than Brown, though that's almost impossible. The only seriously positive thing about the GE in Scotland. MCDoom will be gone.

Watching the Freeman PEB again, I appreciate how the parties so carefully word these things, with following a negative comment about their opponent on a specific point with a more general positive one about themselves, without addressing what they would actually do on that specific example.

So Freeman talks about how he could talk about how the Tories would take us on a 'rollercoaster of cuts' while Labour 'will make sure the economy works for all of us'.

That's lovely, and laudable, but Labour's position on cuts is...significantly different? Not so much that it's worth mentioning apparently, let's move on.

At least I remembered that point vaguely from the Labour one before rewatching though, I cannot say I recall much of anything about the Tory one. Something about families I think?

Is Lucy one of the 40?

@LucyMPowell: “@clevelandminer: @LucyMPowell you employ people on zero hour contracts, dont you think you are being hypocritical?” No I don't.

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SquareRoot said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.

I did mention this on PB a few hours ago.. and so it came to pass.. hugely amusing but so predictable.

There will be way more stories to be had than MPs who have used ZHC...as I keep saying it basically just the new term for agency work...and agency work is a huge industry and a huge number of people use them.

Rather than saying sensible reform of ZHC, he went for the basic ban them all "policy" (thats a strong word for something so poorly thought out)

As soon as he said BAN it, it was inevitable that the snoops would go looking.. Ed really is a loser.. he cannot think 5 secs ahead. just think what he would be like running the country.. worse than Brown, though that's almost impossible. The only seriously positive thing about the GE in Scotland. MCDoom will be gone.

We will see the Quick thinkers in tomorrows leaders debate and who is not.

TGOHF said:

A celebrity supports us.

How flaccid an argument is that ?

Fairly flaccid, but if you have plenty to choose from, of course you will use them, though you would not want to rely on it, anyone would use them if they could the same as business leaders. Those with fewer of those will deride the worth of using them at all, but they'd wish to have the opportunity to use them to the same degree.

Charles said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tykejohnno said:

People may sneer at him but ....


LabourList ‏@LabourList ·
Over a million views in two days: how Martin Freeman is helping Labour win the online war http://ow.ly/L5p97

Always need to be careful about stuff like this. Like didn't a twitter campaign with Cameron Out or whatever it was and it was on the trending list every day for weeks...but it was preaching to the converted.

The large white space was asking for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8

What wouldn't CCHQ give for The Cumberbatch to do a forensic rebuttal of Watson's burblings....

Kill his career,didn't you know,tories eat babies. ;-)

Don't forget it would be one OE helping out another...

Eh, Harrovian surely?

Speedy said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/583384341000155136

At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff - Perhaps it would have been a good idea for Ed to have got his own house in order before launching yet another attack on business.

That is true.
In a GE campaign, it's hunting season for the media, so better be sure you have nothing that can pop out.

(At least 40 Labour MPs use ZHC for hired staff)
Do not worry. The wonderful Lucy has it all under control. In Lucy we trust.

Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.

kle4 said:

Watching the Freeman PEB again, I appreciate how the parties so carefully word these things, with following a negative comment about their opponent on a specific point with a more general positive one about themselves, without addressing what they would actually do on that specific example.

So Freeman talks about how he could talk about how the Tories would take us on a 'rollercoaster of cuts' while Labour 'will make sure the economy works for all of us'.

That's lovely, and laudable, but Labour's position on cuts is...significantly different? Not so much that it's worth mentioning apparently, let's move on.

At least I remembered that point vaguely from the Labour one before rewatching though, I cannot say I recall much of anything about the Tory one. Something about families I think?

Great news,you have just added to labours watching count ;-)

Scott_P said:

Is Lucy one of the 40?

@LucyMPowell: “@clevelandminer: @LucyMPowell you employ people on zero hour contracts, dont you think you are being hypocritical?” No I don't.

Is that the spoof twitter account again...oh no...it isn't...

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.

I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.

Jonathan said:

Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.

Things are going well for the Tories.

The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.

There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.

Just got a message from someone saying that all of these Labour MPs are going to deny having ZHC workers because Parliament calls it something different even though it is basically the same in practice. Talk about wriggling out.

MikeL said:

Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?

In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).

There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.

It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.

It would certainly uphold the CON claim that the economy has recovered, a sudden abundance of rich healthy people with secure employment and privately educated children.

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least

As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets

Tissue_Price said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.

Whyteleafe, I've been there back in 2008, just inside the London Oystercard area.

Tissue_Price said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
Liberal Democrats GAIN Whyteleafe (Tandridge) from Conservative.

I love these LD gains in the locals (which don't seem to happen en masse when they have the rounds of locals rather than by-elections), it just goes so against the national picture that if you tell people about them (and they don't tell you to shut up for being a bore) they surely must be baffled, in most instances, as to what sort of places these gains are happening in, how different from every where else.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda.

Impossible? I doubt it. Surely given how hard the messaging has been on the economy right from the start offers a chance for other issues to gain more prominence even if it were only from the media pushing them out of boredom, and the Tories don't really have any other firm ground to campaign on (it could be argued the economy is not that firm, but it's as firm as they can get), with many of their other successes more controversial and as liable to rile up opponents as much as supporters.

Grandiose said:

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.

I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.

The reason is very obvious

1) Private polling costs a lot

2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.

A constituency poll can cost around £20k.

The limit for the long campaign is 30k

The short campaign limit is 9k

Big_G_NorthWales said:

What amazes me is that labour know they are week on the economy but in a huge mistake chose to go on it when it should have been the NHS. The narrative is all about the economy and it is going to be impossible for labour to move the agenda. I think this week labour has lost the election and even before Boris starts on the campaign trail

That is rather OTT after 2 days of focus on the Tories home turf. I am sure there will be opportunities for both side to get stuck into the other parties weaknesses.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.

I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.

The reason is very obvious

1) Private polling costs a lot

2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.

A constituency poll can cost around £20k.

The limit for the long campaign is 30k

The short campaign limit is 9k

I'll do it for £10k.

hunchman said:

Fascinating Ashcroft polls today.

I've still got Clegg just about hanging on in Hallam - after 5 weeks of wall to wall coverage of him and the name recognition factor I still think he will just about be ok. I'm surprised at the Tory fall in Hallam vis a vis the Labour rise which implies some direct Tory Labour switching there as well as the obvious Lib Dem to Labour swing. Does anyone know why the Tory vote is so depressed there? - I can't for one minute think its any Tories voting Labour tactically to get rid of Clegg. And its not as though the seat demographics have shifted to Labour, as far as I know its still the middle class enclave of Sheffield. I can believe that Sheffield Labour have been targeting the seat en masse for the past 5 years but it still doesn't fully explain for me the apparent movements we're seeing in the Ashcroft poll.
.

Like you, I interpreted the fall in Tory vote and rise in Lab vote in Hallam (and Cambridge) as some direct Tory Labour switching.

But on reflection, I think it is far more likely that there has been a lot of LD switching to Labour (student fees, tactical unwind) offset by Tory tactical voting for LDs. It results in a net Tory to Lab switch but it disguises two different movements..

This is the first time I have seen evidence of Tory tactical voting for LDs. If this is more widespread, it may help LDs in marginals - including in Scotland with a Tory tactical vote against the SNP in LD/SNP marginals. There may also be LD tactical voting for Lab in Lab/SNP marginals.

Net result is good news for LDs (and possibly Lab in Scotland but not in England) and bad news for SNP. This may not be being picked up by the models.

MikeL said:

Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?

In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).

There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.

It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.

It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.

Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.

@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: There is a now a teachers' letter circulating.... Others? Forgotten by tmrw or start of something party HQs can't control?

Yawn...by the end of week, we will be hearing about the clown association getting a letter together for the monster raving loony party.

Ah, Camborne and Redruth book looks good now.

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.

I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.

The reason is very obvious

1) Private polling costs a lot

2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.

A constituency poll can cost around £20k.

The limit for the long campaign is 30k

The short campaign limit is 9k

I'll do it for £10k.

Are you BPC registered?

Scott_P said:

@faisalislam: 100 pro-Labour teachers letter to Telegraph. could become "a thing". Pro-cons plumbers? Pro-UKIP taxi drivers? http://t.co/YV5PW6vVnk

Again, that is just random people who may or may not be teachers signing an internet petition. I'm amazed that a legitimate journalist would take it seriously.

I also hope that person is not a teacher, the English is horrible.

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Rochester will respond different even to the SE as a whole.

I agree with isam, the lack of polling there is strange, at least without some grand conspiracy.

The reason is very obvious

1) Private polling costs a lot

2) Since December we've been in the long campaign phase, since last week the short campaign and constituency polling would count as an election expense.

A constituency poll can cost around £20k.

The limit for the long campaign is 30k

The short campaign limit is 9k

I'll do it for £10k.

Are you BPC registered?

Do I have to be?

It might be a deal breaker.

isam said:

chestnut said:

isam said:

Bit surprising isn't it that no poll I from Ukip or Tories in Rochester?

I'd have thought Ukip would use positive opinion polls there and in clacton to show that having a Ukip mp doesn't equal catastrophe

The Ashcroft SW polls were fairly ominous for UKIP.

Do you think the SE is behaving differently?

The only thing I pick up in discussion with people is that they are fed up with immigration and it's consequences but have zero belief in Labour.

Well those polls weren't good but they weren't in places Ukip are making a big effort in to my limited knowledge... The polls backed that up, Ukip had been in contact least

As far as I know they are targeting 20 or so seats, mainly in the SE yes... Ashcroft polled 4 of them last month and Ukip led in 3 on raw data, so I guess those are among the targets

Not so. We were told that UKIP were looking good for Camborne and Redruth.

And then their candidate got convicted of a truly horrific example of animal cruelty. I guess that may not have helped their cause....

MaxPB said:

GIN1138 said:

Jonathan said:

Tory echo chamber particularly resonant tonight. Lots of backslapping.

Things are going well for the Tories.

The Telegraph letter has been a severe blow to Labour I think (one they may not recover from during this election campaign, IMO) and the Tories generally seem to be running a much more focused, deliberate campaign compared to 2010.

There's a lot for the Blue's to be pleased about at the moment...

You really put that much stock in the letter? I don't. It definitely is not a gamechanger for the Tories. It is something that people expect, the Tories are close to big business, it doesn't do anything different for them.

In terms of economic credibility and the media narrative, it's very damaging to Labour I think.

It reinforces the perception that Labour is a busted flush on the economy - Hence the outrage from lefties and now the mad scramble to get letters flying themselves....

It's also damaging because people remember Labour had the support of buisness from 1997 to 2005. Blair and Mandy didn't spend so much time and effort cultivating links with the business community for nothing. They did it because they knew it was important to be economically credible.

As already noted, Labour should try and change the conversation back to the NHS ASAP.

weejonnie said:

MikeL said:

Remember the "rule" that said Con can't get a higher vote share than they got in 2010?

In 2010 then got 37.0 (GB). Several pollsters now have them at 36, and Rob has them averaging 35 (albeit a sample of only the last 7 polls).

There has to be a chance they could get over 37.0. Imagine that - more than last time - despite UKIP.

It would be an amazing achievement - which would vindicate Cameron's strategy 100% - and it would almost certainly be a more efficient vote as well.

It's not the absolute percentage - it's the difference - Labour MUST be doing better in England than in 2010 because of their collapse in Scotland. That still equates to Tory losses.

Note seats on SPIN gap is now 15. 288 Vs 269 will still be a win for Miliband since the LDs can join Labour and the SNP won't rock the boat.

Of course - but Con can only do anything about their own score.

Blindingly obvious that even if Con rises from 2010, Lab could rise more from its 2010 (and it almost certainly will rise more) - which will mean net Lab gains from Con.

Sadly I'll be unable to watch the debate live tomorrow, so to sign off, I predict the following:

Cameron: Will try to play it safe and bland, but a bit of overconfidence will lead to him making a claim or statement which gets him in trouble
Ed M - Those who have never seen him and expect a terrible performer will be stunned that he is just fine. His ratings will go up even though Lab will take a temporary hit due to the others having more prominence.
Wood - Some sort of boost surely, purely out of getting a chance to take on the GB leaders directly for a change?
Sturgeon - I will be appalled and annoyed at her comments and attitude, but the people of Scotland will adore both.
Clegg - Will perform fine, but see his ratings and the LD drop yet further anyway. That seems to be their fate
Farage - Bold prediction this, I think he will miss plenty of opportunities, as I think he will have a plan on who to attach the most, Cameron or Ed M, depending on the question, and despite his skills will miss a trick based off something one of the others says he could have used to his advantage.
Bennett - She won't be able to be put on the spot and grilled like in an interview, so I doubt any of the crazier Green ideas will unravel completely, and she should at least be able to distinguish herself from the others well. A boost is surely inevitable.

The Winner? Sturgeon.