politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings new
Comments
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Look at that easy action....DavidL said:
This has to be the result of a dare.dr_spyn said:Has April 1st arrived 11 and half hours too early for The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/31/decline-bandq-lesbians-bad-news-diy?CMP=share_btn_tw
Toolbag Ted from Birkenhead...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=f90G95ItQBY
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That's just an out dated superstition.RodCrosby said:
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The Guardian has published 2 articles defending Andrea Dworkin in as many days. Presumably tomorrow's edition will come with a free pair of scissors, admonishing all male readers to do the decent thing.0
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In this brave new world of the Fixed- Term Parliaments Act 2011 does a demise of the Crown (not that I'm wishing for one) cause a delay in polling any more?0
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Battersea potentially.Pulpstar said:
I've backed Labour at decent odds in some London seats but they certainly remain odds against.Sean_F said:
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.Sean_F said:
Is there any more to the poll than that?Scott_P said:@UKELECTIONS2015: Yougov/Evening Standard
London Poll
How #GE2010 LibDem voters would vote #GE2015
Labour 35%
LibDem 35%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 7%
Grn 5%
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
Hendon
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield North
Ealing Central Acton
Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ?0 -
I believe there are provisions for this. Edit - yes, it gives an (at most) two week extension.Chris_A said:In this brave new world of the Fixed- Term Parliaments Act 2011 does a demise of the Crown (not that I'm wishing for one) cause a delay in polling any more?
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Section 1(4) of the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 suggests it is permanentRobD said:The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
(4)Resignation may not be rescinded.0 -
PAGING TSE !!!!
@GdnPolitics: "I’m a bit of an 80s fan, I like bad taste - things like A-ha Take On Me." @Ed_Miliband on his music taste http://t.co/ZR0lS1i4aV #GE20150 -
I notice Cam is to get the last word in the 7-way0
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you seem to have missed the baiting and heckling from the Lib Dem side.stodge said:
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.Plato said:And what was that about tuition fees?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
The Conservatives are big enough and ugly enough to put up with a few jibes but woe betide anyone who even says a word against them. It's that peculiar double-standard cloaked in a thin skin that speaks volumes.
There are some Conservatives who have tried to make Coalition work and they are much appreciated - there are unfortunately others who understood "Coalition" to mean "support everything the Conservatives want without complaint or objection".
Must have slipped your mind :-)
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Could he be issued with another peerage to get him back in?Chris_A said:
Section 1(4) of the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 suggests it is permanentRobD said:The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
(4)Resignation may not be rescinded.0 -
Clegg on TV debates: I'm not going to triumph in these debates - that's just self-evident. I enter with quite sober realistic expectations.0
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Presumably he keeps the title though?RodCrosby said:Ashcroft resigns from House of Lords...
Wtf?
And Section 4(8) is rather clearer on the matter of return
(8)Subject to section 3(7), a person who ceases to be a member of the House of Lords in accordance with this Act may not subsequently become a member of that House.0 -
"The Scottish Green party has asked STV to hold all-party talks after the broadcaster again refused to include the Greens in its Scottish election leaders debate next week, Severin Carrell reports. Patrick Harvie, the SGP MSP and co-convenor, has told STV’s head of news Gordon Macmillan there had been a “huge reaction” against their exclusion, with a 10,000 signature petition and all-party support for the Green’s right to take part. STV insists it is right to invite only the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and SNP leaders because the broadcasting watchdog Ofcom has ruled the Scottish Greens are a minority party."
A fight I suspect the SNP hope they don't win !
Problem is if you let in the Greens then you need to let UKIP in and it becomes a Dog's breakfast.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, lowering expectations, but that does risk sounding a bit self-pitying.0
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Possibly hedging his bets vis a vis tax domicile in the event of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Ashcroft resigns from House of Lords...
Wtf?0 -
If the Pope can abdicate, why not Lord Ashcroft?
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Expectation management or blunt reality? – an odd thing to say at any rate..!Pulpstar said:Clegg on TV debates: I'm not going to triumph in these debates - that's just self-evident. I enter with quite sober realistic expectations.
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Lord EmeritusMorris_Dancer said:If the Pope can abdicate, why not Lord Ashcroft?
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Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
Yes, the Standard poll is encouraging for Con.felix said:The ES London poll shows possibly the limit of the Labour push. It's tightened since last time and the Tory losses, if kept to 5/6 do not bode well for Ed as PM. Every poll since the Saturday YG has seen Lab fall back relative to the Tories. Is it a trend? Who knows?
Edit. Except TNS.
OK, it's a 4.5% swing but Con vote share is down only 0.5% vs 2010. If that is the change in each individual seat they shouldn't lose too many and may pick up one or two from the LDs.
eg Con got 47.3% in Battersea in 2010. If they get 46.8% this time that absolutely has to be a winning score. 46.0% in Finchley in 2010 - 45.5% this time again must win. Harrow East 44.7% in 2010 - 44.2% this time would almost certainly be enough.
Is Lab just going to pile up votes in East London where the population is rising fastest?0 -
Must conform!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
She may well have. But to my mind the most important part of any communication is (a) having something to say, having something that you want to say and not just what you think you ought to be saying; and (b) remembering that you are telling a story. Whatever you are saying, it is - in essence - a story. All of us are hard-wired to respond to stories and the best communicators are the ones who are able to tell a story that others can understand and believe in.DavidL said:
At my kids school they start to do presentations to the class about various topics in early Primary school. By L7, where my son is now, they are expected to use power point and slides from their ipads to supplement the presentation.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T: last night I caught part of a lecture which Martha Lane Fox was giving on the internet. What she was saying was reasonably interesting but what caught my attention was how badly she presented it - she was standing behind a lectern and speaking - but much too fast (usually a sign of nerves), with very little variation in tone, even when giving a personal anecdote .
Now this is is not a dig at her. It's hard doing talks/presentations in front of an audience. But learning how to speak in public, how to tell a story - whether that's politics, commerce, selling your services as a professional or whatever - to your audience, how to communicate in a way that resonates and inspires is an absolutely vital skill and one which is all too often lacking. It's one of those "soft" but essential skills I would teach our students.
I can't claim my son really likes it but I agree it is very good experience and training for them.
It is surprising that MLF has not had some decent media training. It seems public speaking is a significant part of her livelihood these days.
And if you can use words to paint a picture of what it is you are trying to say, so much the better. Show rather than tell. Images are tremendously powerful - they are after all how we all take in information as children until we substitute reading - and a speaker or writer who can paint a picture with words will keep an audience rapt.
Slides are often a distraction. An audience can read what is on a slide far quicker than the speaker can ever say it and if the speaker just repeats what is on a slide the audience will have moved on and got bored. They need to be used on a limited basis to be effective, IMO.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11505628/Andrew-Marr-Paxman-ruined-leaders-interviews.html
Marr thinks Paxman was too aggressive, not enough soft soap and platitudes for his taste it seems. Or possibly Ed lost and as custodian of the leftie media mantle along with his wife they don't like it.0 -
Ed milkiband a Stalinest - according to the Mirror
Portillo replied: "I think it may have been a mistake because Sarah in her article compared her to an alien, compared her to Mr Spock and said that the government undr Ed milkiband would bring a Stalinest situation.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-michael-goves-wife-sarah-53258870 -
He's clearly jealous of Paxman getting the job, and the massive payout for an evenings work.Indigo said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11505628/Andrew-Marr-Paxman-ruined-leaders-interviews.html
Marr thinks Paxman was too aggressive, not enough soft soap and platitudes for his taste it seems. Or possibly Ed lost and as custodian of the leftie media mantle along with his wife they don't like it.0 -
I used to live there and I'd be very surprised if it went. The ES poll certainly suggested it would stay blue.Lennon said:
Battersea potentially.Pulpstar said:
I've backed Labour at decent odds in some London seats but they certainly remain odds against.Sean_F said:
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.Sean_F said:
Is there any more to the poll than that?Scott_P said:@UKELECTIONS2015: Yougov/Evening Standard
London Poll
How #GE2010 LibDem voters would vote #GE2015
Labour 35%
LibDem 35%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 7%
Grn 5%
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
Hendon
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield North
Ealing Central Acton
Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ?0 -
Nonetheless, an highly entertaining read.DavidL said:
This has to be the result of a dare.dr_spyn said:Has April 1st arrived 11 and half hours too early for The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/31/decline-bandq-lesbians-bad-news-diy?CMP=share_btn_tw
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I agree. I never use slides and the feedback never mentions it. Some of my colleagues produce masses of them but they seem to me to distract rather than help in most cases.Cyclefree said:
She may well have. But to my mind the most important part of any communication is (a) having something to say, having something that you want to say and not just what you think you ought to be saying; and (b) remembering that you are telling a story. Whatever you are saying, it is - in essence - a story. All of us are hard-wired to respond to stories and the best communicators are the ones who are able to tell a story that others can understand and believe in.DavidL said:
At my kids school they start to do presentations to the class about various topics in early Primary school. By L7, where my son is now, they are expected to use power point and slides from their ipads to supplement the presentation.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T: last night I caught part of a lecture which Martha Lane Fox was giving on the internet. What she was saying was reasonably interesting but what caught my attention was how badly she presented it - she was standing behind a lectern and speaking - but much too fast (usually a sign of nerves), with very little variation in tone, even when giving a personal anecdote .
Now this is is not a dig at her. It's hard doing talks/presentations in front of an audience. But learning how to speak in public, how to tell a story - whether that's politics, commerce, selling your services as a professional or whatever - to your audience, how to communicate in a way that resonates and inspires is an absolutely vital skill and one which is all too often lacking. It's one of those "soft" but essential skills I would teach our students.
I can't claim my son really likes it but I agree it is very good experience and training for them.
It is surprising that MLF has not had some decent media training. It seems public speaking is a significant part of her livelihood these days.
And if you can use words to paint a picture of what it is you are trying to say, so much the better. Show rather than tell. Images are tremendously powerful - they are after all how we all take in information as children until we substitute reading - and a speaker or writer who can paint a picture with words will keep an audience rapt.
Slides are often a distraction. An audience can read what is on a slide far quicker than the speaker can ever say it and if the speaker just repeats what is on a slide the audience will have moved on and got bored. They need to be used on a limited basis to be effective, IMO.0 -
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
The best legal training I ever had was the advocacy training I did. But nothing beat the endless multi-lingual arguments/debates we had in my very voluble and argumentative Italian/Irish family. I realise now that I learnt more as a child at the dinner table than in pretty much everything else I was taught at school!DavidL said:
When I first called at the Bar I found it difficult but I soon realised that an audience were not going to constantly interrupt me and ask me awkward questions to which I did not know the answer so it was a lot easier than appearing in court.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, the presentation I had to do, as part of a group, at university was a bit uneasy. However, we cunningly got the lecturers (and other students) on-side by giving them free chocolate at the start of the lecture.
Mr. Isam, the idea of non-Britons voting in such a referendum is ridiculous and unacceptable.
Add in the joy of not having a stupid client screwing it up for you and it now seems pretty straightforward.
At University my favourite subject by a mile was contract and the tutor had each student present a paper a week about which everyone then tore into and disagreed with. It taught me how to debate, in fact it taught me a whole lot more useful legal skills than the rest of the 4 years put together! I would almost certainly have never been a court lawyer if it was not for that class.
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No, we have just reached a point where the mean and median diverge if you are trying to compare the high sell price to the current fixed odds line. The price is right, by all means sell.surbiton said:UKIP on Sporting Index falls to 5.5-7.5. Should be 2.5-3.5.
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Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
I thought his interview of Cameron was excellent. Seriously challenging and aggressive. I thought his interview of Miliband was poor. It was way too personal and frankly rude. As it happens that probably helped Ed but it did not help or inform the viewer.TheWatcher said:
He's clearly jealous of Paxman getting the job, and the massive payout for an evenings work.Indigo said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11505628/Andrew-Marr-Paxman-ruined-leaders-interviews.html
Marr thinks Paxman was too aggressive, not enough soft soap and platitudes for his taste it seems. Or possibly Ed lost and as custodian of the leftie media mantle along with his wife they don't like it.0 -
Is that it?isam said:
Must conform!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
Tories like you would sell out their own mother to keep power. Hence the downward spiral of GB since 1913.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pretty yucky, true, but if that's the price, that's the price. Anyone who doesn't like it can simply vote Conservative rather than UKIP and, if enough do so, the problem won't arise.isam said:Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
31/03/2015 14:31
Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.
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Indeed - it's just interesting that the Vauxhall Labour members appear to predominantly be helping out there rather than Bermondsey. Possibly just a friendship etc. but thought that it was interesting.felix said:
I used to live there and I'd be very surprised if it went. The ES poll certainly suggested it would stay blue.Lennon said:
Battersea potentially.Pulpstar said:
I've backed Labour at decent odds in some London seats but they certainly remain odds against.Sean_F said:
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.Sean_F said:
Is there any more to the poll than that?Scott_P said:@UKELECTIONS2015: Yougov/Evening Standard
London Poll
How #GE2010 LibDem voters would vote #GE2015
Labour 35%
LibDem 35%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 7%
Grn 5%
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
Hendon
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield North
Ealing Central Acton
Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ?0 -
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
31/03/2015 17:06
Westminster sneers at Joey Essex because it is a closed shop of know-it-alls specc.ie/1ywjETc0 -
Nurse.MikeK said:
Tories like you would sell out their own mother to keep power. Hence the downward spiral of GB since 1913.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pretty yucky, true, but if that's the price, that's the price. Anyone who doesn't like it can simply vote Conservative rather than UKIP and, if enough do so, the problem won't arise.isam said:Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
31/03/2015 14:31
Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.0 -
I honestly think that an accurate Berwickshire poll alone could tell you how Scotland as a whole was going to go.antifrank said:
Someone (Tissue Price?) earlier was asking about the odds that the SNP would finish no lower than second in any seat in Scotland. No worse than evens would be my off-the-cuff guess, and this is the seat where it looks most likely to happen. Actually, the more I think about it, 4/6 seems closer to the mark.Alistair said:
Maybe we could crowd fund a poll?antifrank said:
Berwickshire etc will remain a delicious mystery until polling day, it seems.Alistair said:So the Scotland ComRes poll out today is apparently Scottish Labour Constituencies only.
Tasty.
It's probably Scotland's most interesting seat and yet it has been left alone, undisturbed lest it's rare beauty be ruined.
I'm glad I'm not a bookie.
To be fair to the ComRes poll you could probably make a very accurate estimate of the remaining seats once you subtract this most recent poll out of previous poll results. Only 18 other seats.
Should be able to judge the LD decline.0 -
Lurker of about 7 years, first time posting as I never usually get close to the top of the thread and I have a feeling that the next few weeks might be rather interesting!!
Very surprised that no-one said to as good an actor as Mr Freeman that politics is not like luvvie-land, that raising one's head so spectacularly above the parapet in politics will attract the likes of Guido and others determined to expose hypocracy where it exists?
Jennifer's Ear was 23 years ago now, surely all sides now also have campaign interns wanting to make a name for themselves by digging around anyone well known that gets involved in their opponents' campaigns from outside?0 -
And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?0
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Is anyone keeping tabs on whose election leaflets Ed doesn't feature on? He doesn't feature on the one I got from Labour in Finchley. Not only is there no photo of him but his name isn't even mentioned.
It's all a bit Fawlty Towers is it not? Whatever you do, don't mention the Ed. I did it once but I think I got away with it.0 -
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
No. Just their senses.Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk
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WelcomeSandpit said:And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.0 -
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
I don't think it's a big issue to be honest.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk0 -
Oh I don't know the rest of his party seem to manage it.Scott_P said:
WelcomeSandpit said:And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.0 -
I think there are strong historical links with Vauxhall and Battersea - and perhaps they just don't like Kate Hoey.Lennon said:
Indeed - it's just interesting that the Vauxhall Labour members appear to predominantly be helping out there rather than Bermondsey. Possibly just a friendship etc. but thought that it was interesting.felix said:
I used to live there and I'd be very surprised if it went. The ES poll certainly suggested it would stay blue.Lennon said:
Battersea potentially.Pulpstar said:
I've backed Labour at decent odds in some London seats but they certainly remain odds against.Sean_F said:
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.Sean_F said:
Is there any more to the poll than that?Scott_P said:@UKELECTIONS2015: Yougov/Evening Standard
London Poll
How #GE2010 LibDem voters would vote #GE2015
Labour 35%
LibDem 35%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 7%
Grn 5%
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
Hendon
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield North
Ealing Central Acton
Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ? 0 -
Welcome to PB!Sandpit said:Lurker of about 7 years, first time posting as I never usually get close to the top of the thread and I have a feeling that the next few weeks might be rather interesting!!
Very surprised that no-one said to as good an actor as Mr Freeman that politics is not like luvvie-land, that raising one's head so spectacularly above the parapet in politics will attract the likes of Guido and others determined to expose hypocracy where it exists?
Jennifer's Ear was 23 years ago now, surely all sides now also have campaign interns wanting to make a name for themselves by digging around anyone well known that gets involved in their opponents' campaigns from outside?
0 -
I don't want to be rude but that's not an answer either.Sean_F said:
I don't think it's a big issue to be honest.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk
0 -
Mr. Pit, welcome to pb.com.
It's not quite the same, but it's been amusing reading some Twitter mockery of TIDAL.0 -
Can't Lord A just go crossbench?Scott_P said:
WelcomeSandpit said:And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.
0 -
All good advice. The way you speak is important as well, I cant think of the number of presentations I have been to which have been factually useful, possibly even packed full of useful insight, but were so dull and unengaging that when I left I couldn't remember what they said. One of the reasons I struggled with Maths for several years in the middle of high school is because my teacher although a gifted, even brilliant mathematician, spoke in a monotone, with no charisma or enthusiasm for her subject, and people just turned off in droves. (Now I part-own a school I frequently remind my staff that teaching is a communication skill more than an academic one, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are at your subject if you fail to convey that information and your enthusiasm for it, to your pupils)Cyclefree said:Slides are often a distraction. An audience can read what is on a slide far quicker than the speaker can ever say it and if the speaker just repeats what is on a slide the audience will have moved on and got bored. They need to be used on a limited basis to be effective, IMO.
If you listen to top speaking coaches like Conor Neill, they maintain the secret is to develop speaking and presentation like a muscle memory, to just present to yourself in the mirror or on your webcam for several minutes every day. This little clip of his I keep on my tablet to remind myself before I have to speak www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE7QJSO449o but I have found a lot of his stuff on YT useful.0 -
Presumably this ComRes is going to be a sample of 1000 or 2000 across the 40 seats. So not *that* much use for individual seats, but still interesting to see the regional breakdowns.0
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I think it's time for PB's editor or Guest Editor to do a thread on Douglas.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I don't want to be rude but that's not an answer either.Sean_F said:
I don't think it's a big issue to be honest.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk
Is he about to do a Churchill and re-rat?
Or is he set to play the role of Brutus?0 -
If that were the reason he could easily have resigned the party whip but remained in the Lords as a cross-bencher.Scott_P said:
WelcomeSandpit said:And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.0 -
@antifrank 4/6 on the SNP finishing 2nd or better everywhere sounds plausible, if maybe a bit short. Dumfries & Galloway is the other confounding seat. Logically tactical voting should help the SNP finish 2nd in each seat, if only people knew who they were supposed to vote tactically for.0
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Perhaps he genuinely doesn't have time to contribute?Carnyx said:
Can't Lord A just go crossbench?Scott_P said:
WelcomeSandpit said:And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.0 -
Sandpit said:
Thanks for the welcome Scott!
And in the time it took me to register and type one comment, Lord Ashcroft resigns from the Lords! Why on earth would he do that?
Welcome
@tnewtondunn: Perhaps @LordAshcroft's Lords resignation is a clue about his post #GE2015 Cameron biography. Hard to shitbag the PM and keep the Tory whip.
Surely he could resign the whip and move to the cross benches if he insisted on criticising Cameron though? I can't remember someone voluntarily leaving the Lords before, it's usually a very nice job for life.0 -
Interesting thought. To my mind the problem is estimating the degree to which the Unionist parties (sensu Scotland) have tried to mess up GE2015 by confusing it with indyref. That would perhaps have particular impact on Berwickshire because of its strong Tory/LD content. Also presumably a lot of retired incomers with their own houses owned 100% - key Tpry demographic. Not sure how good a guide it is for Scotland, unless the LDs have crashed from 41% to something silly like 10%.Alistair said:
I honestly think that an accurate Berwickshire poll alone could tell you how Scotland as a whole was going to go.antifrank said:
Someone (Tissue Price?) earlier was asking about the odds that the SNP would finish no lower than second in any seat in Scotland. No worse than evens would be my off-the-cuff guess, and this is the seat where it looks most likely to happen. Actually, the more I think about it, 4/6 seems closer to the mark.Alistair said:
Maybe we could crowd fund a poll?antifrank said:
Berwickshire etc will remain a delicious mystery until polling day, it seems.Alistair said:So the Scotland ComRes poll out today is apparently Scottish Labour Constituencies only.
Tasty.
It's probably Scotland's most interesting seat and yet it has been left alone, undisturbed lest it's rare beauty be ruined.
I'm glad I'm not a bookie.
To be fair to the ComRes poll you could probably make a very accurate estimate of the remaining seats once you subtract this most recent poll out of previous poll results. Only 18 other seats.
Should be able to judge the LD decline.
It's also worth remembering that Michael Moore may have escaped the worst of the Tory contamination by resigning from the SoSoS and IIRC the Cabinet before the peak of the indyref, so he may not lose too many voters through that factor.
You could always ask Wings over Scotland to poll it - his fundie has been very successful.
0 -
Quite a hatchet jobSandpit said:Lurker of about 7 years, first time posting as I never usually get close to the top of the thread and I have a feeling that the next few weeks might be rather interesting!!
Very surprised that no-one said to as good an actor as Mr Freeman that politics is not like luvvie-land, that raising one's head so spectacularly above the parapet in politics will attract the likes of Guido and others determined to expose hypocracy where it exists?
Jennifer's Ear was 23 years ago now, surely all sides now also have campaign interns wanting to make a name for themselves by digging around anyone well known that gets involved in their opponents' campaigns from outside?0 -
I'd say the chance of him coming back were so close to zero it isn't worth worrying about!TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it's time for PB's editor or Guest Editor to do a thread on Douglas.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I don't want to be rude but that's not an answer either.Sean_F said:
I don't think it's a big issue to be honest.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk
Is he about to do a Churchill and re-rat?
Or is he set to play the role of Brutus?0 -
Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.old_labour said:0 -
The best rant against Tidal I have seen - makes SeanT seem like Nick CleggMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pit, welcome to pb.com.
It's not quite the same, but it's been amusing reading some Twitter mockery of TIDAL.
http://thequietus.com/articles/17547-tidal-pop-streaming-bellends-mr-agreeable0 -
As a Conservative, I think it would be wholly dishonest and disreputable for the government to change the electorate to favour its side in a referendum. It would be the equivalent of a UKIP government raising the voting age to 25 for it. The voting age in this country is 18, and that should be the voting age in any referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pretty yucky, true, but if that's the price, that's the price. Anyone who doesn't like it can simply vote Conservative rather than UKIP and, if enough do so, the problem won't arise.isam said:Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
31/03/2015 14:31
Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.0 -
Thanks for the welcome Mr Dancer, from a fellow F1 fan :-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pit, welcome to pb.com.
It's not quite the same, but it's been amusing reading some Twitter mockery of TIDAL.0 -
Labour would probably hold c.12 seats on that kind of swing.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.old_labour said:0 -
It's very consistent with other polls.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.old_labour said:0 -
Lord Ashcroft found a 25% swing in his first batch of Scottish seats, so the swing is quite a bit lower in the ComRes poll.0
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Thanks for the welcome RobDRobD said:
Welcome to PB!Sandpit said:Lurker of about 7 years, first time posting as I never usually get close to the top of the thread and I have a feeling that the next few weeks might be rather interesting!!
Very surprised that no-one said to as good an actor as Mr Freeman that politics is not like luvvie-land, that raising one's head so spectacularly above the parapet in politics will attract the likes of Guido and others determined to expose hypocracy where it exists?
Jennifer's Ear was 23 years ago now, surely all sides now also have campaign interns wanting to make a name for themselves by digging around anyone well known that gets involved in their opponents' campaigns from outside?0 -
Can't be right, Tories are down one!!!Tissue_Price said:
Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.old_labour said:
0 -
Their constituents didn't seem to regard them as TPDsMarqueeMark said:
No. Just their senses.Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk 0 -
I agree, but we are talking about a scenario where we wouldn't have a Conservative government.JEO said:As a Conservative, I think it would be wholly dishonest and disreputable for the government to change the electorate to favour its side in a referendum. It would be the equivalent of a UKIP government raising the voting age to 25 for it. The voting age in this country is 18, and that should be the voting age in any referendum.
There seems to be some kind of bizarre mindset amongst the Kippers that somehow it would be Cameron's fault if, by voting against him, they bring about disagreeable consequences for the country. Utterly weird.0 -
Yes but those were in the strongest Yes areas.Artist said:Lord Ashcroft found a 25% swing in his first batch of Scottish seats, so the swing is quite a bit lower in the ComRes poll.
0 -
29% of people in Lab 2010 seats want Cameron as PM!!!0
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A good speaker can make the most apparently dull subject riveting.Indigo said:
All good advice. The way you speak is important as well, I cant think of the number of presentations I have been to which have been factually useful, possibly even packed full of useful insight, but were so dull and unengaging that when I left I couldn't remember what they said. One of the reasons I struggled with Maths for several years in the middle of high school is because my teacher although a gifted, even brilliant mathematician, spoke in a monotone, with no charisma or enthusiasm for her subject, and people just turned off in droves.Cyclefree said:Slides are often a distraction. An audience can read what is on a slide far quicker than the speaker can ever say it and if the speaker just repeats what is on a slide the audience will have moved on and got bored. They need to be used on a limited basis to be effective, IMO.
If you listen to top speaking coaches like Conor Neill, they maintain the secret is to develop speaking and presentation like a muscle memory, to just present to yourself in the mirror or on your webcam for several minutes every day. This little clip of his I keep on my tablet to remind myself before I have to speak www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE7QJSO449o but I have found a lot of his stuff on YT useful.
I do a lot of public speaking at work and, at one point, I had traders queuing up to come to one of my talks where I roundly berated the lot of them for their greed and stupidity! (Though that was not all I said, to be fair.) It is not often that people queue to hear a lawyer speak! Surprisingly often, lawyers can be some of the most boring speakers imaginable.
One of the things that saddens me about our current crop of politicians is how poor most of them are at speaking of any kind. Despite all their education and training and the glories of the English language, most of them have scarcely more character when opening their mouths than those irritating announcements on the tube telling you that the doors are opening, closing, stuck, a rectangular shape etc.
It's not English they speak but "Duck Speak" (copyright: G Orwell).
0 -
I am hoping from a betting point of view that Scotland doesn't revert to tactical voting again. The last election was horrific from that point of view. I lost a pile of money on GE 2010. I hate tactical voting.Tissue_Price said:@antifrank 4/6 on the SNP finishing 2nd or better everywhere sounds plausible, if maybe a bit short. Dumfries & Galloway is the other confounding seat. Logically tactical voting should help the SNP finish 2nd in each seat, if only people knew who they were supposed to vote tactically for.
0 -
Mr. JEO, quite. Not to mention [although I am] that having non-Briton EU nationals voting on our EU membership is indefensible.
Mr. Pit, huzzah! Hope you checked out my post-race ramblings:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
Incidentally, my articles this year have been well worth reading, largely because Mr. M keeps posting winning tips.0 -
Lib Dems on 2% across 40 seats in Scotland, a lot of lost deposits.0
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True. It's a bit lower than the second batch.Tissue_Price said:
Yes but those were in the strongest Yes areas.Artist said:Lord Ashcroft found a 25% swing in his first batch of Scottish seats, so the swing is quite a bit lower in the ComRes poll.
0 -
I think you've described my abilities at public speaking.. woeful.Cyclefree said:
A good speaker can make the most apparently dull subject riveting.Indigo said:
All good advice. The way you speak is important as well, I cant think of the number of presentations I have been to which have been factually useful, possibly even packed full of useful insight, but were so dull and unengaging that when I left I couldn't remember what they said. One of the reasons I struggled with Maths for several years in the middle of high school is because my teacher although a gifted, even brilliant mathematician, spoke in a monotone, with no charisma or enthusiasm for her subject, and people just turned off in droves.Cyclefree said:Slides are often a distraction. An audience can read what is on a slide far quicker than the speaker can ever say it and if the speaker just repeats what is on a slide the audience will have moved on and got bored. They need to be used on a limited basis to be effective, IMO.
If you listen to top speaking coaches like Conor Neill, they maintain the secret is to develop speaking and presentation like a muscle memory, to just present to yourself in the mirror or on your webcam for several minutes every day. This little clip of his I keep on my tablet to remind myself before I have to speak www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE7QJSO449o but I have found a lot of his stuff on YT useful.
I do a lot of public speaking at work and, at one point, I had traders queuing up to come to one of my talks where I roundly berated the lot of them for their greed and stupidity! (Though that was not all I said, to be fair.) It is not often that people queue to hear a lawyer speak! Surprisingly often, lawyers can be some of the most boring speakers imaginable.
One of the things that saddens me about our current crop of politicians is how poor most of them are at speaking of any kind. Despite all their education and training and the glories of the English language, most of them have scarcely more character when opening their mouths than those irritating announcements on the tube telling you that the doors are opening, closing, stuck, a rectangular shape etc.
It's not English they speak but "Duck Speak" (copyright: G Orwell).0 -
Just been canvases by the SNP, they canvasser was a member of the green party but would be voting SNP at Westminster.0
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The way he's going he's more likely to set up the Carswellian Clacton Resident Association party ...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it's time for PB's editor or Guest Editor to do a thread on Douglas.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I don't want to be rude but that's not an answer either.Sean_F said:
I don't think it's a big issue to be honest.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think it's why does Douglas continue to miss big UKIP events, from my memory he missed the recent 'big' Nige speech and then he missed the UKIP launch - his reason is putting his constituents first but if so, then what does that mean for TPD not staying in Rochester and ... this is my bit, if you are a 'maverick' not a team player that's fine in the big party but when there's so few of you as the face of UKIP then not being there for a 'big' event does leave an obvious 'gap' or at least a sense of detachment.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure what her substantial point is.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but what about the subject?Sean_F said:
At least neither Carswell nor Reckless abandoned their constituency after just two years.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Douglas vs Louise....Scrapheap_as_was said:being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·13 mins13 minutes ago
Carswell puts Clacton first. Guilty as charged, M'Lud. Matt Parris won't understand but local folk will http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6391083/douglas-carswell-snubs-ukip-election-launch.html?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunPolitics-20150331-Politics-162341314 …
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
UKIP can't have it both ways. Either you "need to be in your seat" and Mark Reckless was derelict, or you "support Nige" and Carswell was
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch·12 mins12 minutes ago
I note the MP with the lower majority and the more marginal seat was one to attend the party launch. "Needed in Clacton" not #straighttalk
Is he about to do a Churchill and re-rat?
Or is he set to play the role of Brutus?
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If this is indeed the ComRes poll, it does look as though Labour are seeming to do a little bit better than in previous polls.
But what we don't know is how much this is simply because a different pollster is looking at the question. ComRes haven't polled on Westminster voting intentions in Scotland previously, so far as I can tell.0 -
The Noble Lord Ashcroft ...... is it in order henceforth to refer to him as just plain "Mike" ?0
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I believe he retains the various dignities afforded to a Lord.peter_from_putney said:The Noble Lord Ashcroft ...... is it in order henceforth to refer to him as just plain "Mike" ?
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It would only be David Cameron's fault if he accepted the demands. I would like to think he's a decent enough chap to rule out such conditions. But I would regard him as breaking his pledge if he agreed one in a way that is engineered to favour his own side.Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree, but we are talking about a scenario where we wouldn't have a Conservative government.JEO said:As a Conservative, I think it would be wholly dishonest and disreputable for the government to change the electorate to favour its side in a referendum. It would be the equivalent of a UKIP government raising the voting age to 25 for it. The voting age in this country is 18, and that should be the voting age in any referendum.
There seems to be some kind of bizarre mindset amongst the Kippers that somehow it would be Cameron's fault if, by voting against him, they bring about disagreeable consequences for the country. Utterly weird.
These Liberal Democrats really do have some cheek though. What is it about the European Union that brings out the dishonesty in people? I'm (just) in favour of our EU membership, but the constant shenanigans pro-Europeans engage with to dodge democracy does them no favours at all. I can certainly understand why people vote for Farage just to thumb their noses at the lot of them.0 -
Was he a 'working peer'? Has he just decided he does not want to be one of the voting peers?RobD said:The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
Has his inner insight into the true nature of his polls convinced him Cameron is going to win and his activities have been wasted?
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FOR NPEXMP
I am a poor man but I will take your £ 40 as the odds are against me as they are right now. Your 40 to my 20 and if I win you gift aid £40 to LUPUS UK the charity that supports LUPUS sufferers , the illness that my late wife bore bravely and which caused her early and untimely death.
Anyone else who would like to donate to LUPUS UK can do so here and you can also read up on this horrible autoimmune illness that few have heard of. If you know someone who has it , give them a hug, they need it.
http://www.lupusuk.org.uk/
I'll gift aid £20 to which ever cat charity you want....if you win and assuming you aren't a chicken.
Frankly who wins this bet doesn't really matter, but I would like to see LUPUS UK getting extra funds.
NO need to email PTP, I'll take your word for it as I feel sure you will take mine.0 -
If the electorate put him in a position where he's in thrall to other parties, then he's in thrall to other parties. Reality trumps everything else.JEO said:It would only be David Cameron's fault if he accepted the demands. I would like to think he's a decent enough chap to rule out such conditions. But I would regard him as breaking his pledge if he agreed one in a way that is engineered to favour his own side.
There's a simple enough remedy to avoid all such unpleasantness; it's in the hands of those who most complain about him. If they choose not to take it, then that's up to them.0 -
I've been reading your F1 blogs for a year or so too, you'll be pleased to hear that a few of your tips made me some money!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JEO, quite. Not to mention [although I am] that having non-Briton EU nationals voting on our EU membership is indefensible.
Mr. Pit, huzzah! Hope you checked out my post-race ramblings:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
Incidentally, my articles this year have been well worth reading, largely because Mr. M keeps posting winning tips.
Agree with you that the idea of messing with the franchise for the EU referendum in the same we we let Eck mess with it for the Scottish one would be disgraceful. It should be the same as the GE.0 -
maybe he should just abolish the electorate and appoint a new one.Richard_Nabavi said:
If the electorate put him in a position where he's in thrall to other parties, then he's in thrall to other parties. Reality trumps everything else.JEO said:It would only be David Cameron's fault if he accepted the demands. I would like to think he's a decent enough chap to rule out such conditions. But I would regard him as breaking his pledge if he agreed one in a way that is engineered to favour his own side.
There's a simple enough remedy to avoid all such unpleasantness; it's in the hands of those who most complain about him. If they choose not to take it, then that's up to them.0 -
He didn't mess with it, surely - it was the standard UK legislative one prescribed for such things, under UK law, as I recall.Sandpit said:
I've been reading your F1 blogs for a year or so too, you'll be pleased to hear that a few of your tips made me some money!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JEO, quite. Not to mention [although I am] that having non-Briton EU nationals voting on our EU membership is indefensible.
Mr. Pit, huzzah! Hope you checked out my post-race ramblings:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
Incidentally, my articles this year have been well worth reading, largely because Mr. M keeps posting winning tips.
Agree with you that the idea of messing with the franchise for the EU referendum in the same we we let Eck mess with it for the Scottish one would be disgraceful. It should be the same as the GE.
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