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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14
The LAB camp, meanwhile, will take some heart from the range of EdM findings featured above. The key thing here is the direction they are going. “Would he be up to the job of being PM?” – was 23 to 59 in February while the latest has that at 30 to 45. The recovery seems to be all coming from LAB voters who now back their man by 79% to 9.
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For some it's a resignation that they’re stuck with him now until GE2015, might as well support him. Others will simply not bother turning out on the night.
Don't know 24
hahaha... should've used "not sure" there!
Sunil - part ELBOW please?
My first chance to comment for a few days. A solid opening to the campaign for the Conservatives with, as expected, some of the UKIP support "coming home" at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.
I wonder if the Conservative tactic is to seek to demoralise Labour early and then hope enough Labour voters stay at home to create an overall majority. We'll see..
Thursday will be interesting as a spectacle though probably not terribly informative - the April 30th QT will be more so as minds will be concentrating.
From a personal level I regard a Lab/SNP Government or a Conservative-led Government with the same joy as someone entrusting their crpown jewels to a psychopath with a rusty knife.
In the acres of pointless partisan verbage currently on offer, this one stuck out like a turd in your crumble and custard:
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/hamish-mcrae-message-to-the-next-government--you-will-need-to-get-cleverer-10143839.html
An excellent piece making, I think, two key points - neither the Conservatives nor Labour can be trusted on the economy and the two sets of economic policies aren't that far apart.
Aren't the uptick in Con/Ed ratings easily explained by the fact they just had a big TV programme involving only the pair of them? It is so obvious I feel silly mentioning it, but no one else has
The opposition debate will be a pretty much free platform for Nigel I reckon though as Nicola will be firing all guns on Nick and particularly Ed.
In fact Bennett's attacks will probably play tremendously well for both of them in that one.
This anecdata seems to be backed up by the slowly descending Kipper polling numbers over time.
The SNP lot seem to be showing far more backbone.
Nigel needs a great performance to try and convince them to stick with him.
Not. The most absurd thing I've seen here in ages. And from a superior voting being who isn't *partisan*
Absolutely.
According to WiKi the Lords Prayer as it occurs in Matthew 6:9–13 contains the lines...
Give us this day our daily bread,
and forgive us our debts,
as we also have forgiven our debtors.
And lead us not into temptation,
but deliver us from evil.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/2015.PNG
Had Cameron maintained the "liberal conservative" he was or seemed to be in 2010 I'd be in a different place but we now face the fact IF the Conservatives win a majority next month of two years of endless wibbling about Europe followed by a contentious Referendum while we all count down to Cameron's departure.
To be honest, between that and the bland meanderings of Miliband/Balls, I see very little difference.
The partisans and Party members like yourself will protest ad nauseam and try to convince me that a vote for the other side will usher in eternal darkness (which it won't) while a vote for their side will usher in a new golden age (which it won't) but there's a lot of evidence people are unconvinced about anyone and everyone and that's something about which we should all be concerned.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/UKIP.PNG
People on polling panels etc are not regular people, I think few political obsessives realise this as they know so many people that are like them
***several have also said they are voting UKIP buit would say "don't know " if asked as they don't want the agg of explaining themselves/fighting accusations of racist/sexist etc
I've bought in the last month two items from China via Amazon. The delivery date was a month hence - they both arrived within a week. One was a bunch of silk irises, the other a calligraphy pen. Hardly big ticket items at less than £15 each. But the quality/price/delivery timeframes are stunning.
We really need to up our game to compete. Making silk flowers isn't exactly hard as a production task. I live down the road from what was Parker Pens. Are they still in business? I haven't seen one in years.
Mr. 1983 (FPT), well, I am an atheist. My memory of the Lord's Prayer from school is a bit errant, but you should forgive me.
I have a feeling it may be considerably lower than 2010, and that hints at both apathy and/or an electorate that has made it's mind up already, which I suspect it has.
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I'm afraid UKIP have had the same problem the LDs and before them the Liberals had - the support expands like the proverbial balloon in mid-term but deflates as the election approaches. It will be interesting to see what the UKIP vote does as any EU Referendum approaches.
Wiki says, "A management buyout in 1987 moved the company headquarters to Newhaven, East Sussex, England, which was the original location of the Valentine Pen Company previously acquired by Parker. In 1993 Parker was acquired by the Gillette Company, which already owned the Paper Mate brand, one of the best-selling disposable ballpoints. Gillette sold the writing instruments division in 2000 to Newell Rubbermaid, whose own Sanford Stationery Division became the largest in the world—owning such brand names as Rotring, Sharpie, Reynolds as well as Parker, PaperMate, Waterman, and Liquid Paper.
In July 2009, the 180 workers at Parker Newhaven got notice that the factory would be shut down and the production moved to France.[10] The following month, Newell Rubbermaid Inc. announced that the Janesville, Wisconsin plant was to close the remaining operations tied to Parker Pen (which eliminated 153 jobs). The company press release said:
"This decision is a response to structural issues accelerated by market trends and is in no way a reflection on the highly valued work performed by our Janesville employees over the years."
Newell Rubbermaid stated it will offer transitional employment services as well as severance benefits.[11][12]
More recently, Parker has abandoned traditional retail outlets in North America. While some Jotter pens may be found in retailers such as Office Depot, what little remains of the Parker line has been moved to upscale "luxury" retailers, effectively abandoning the entry level market.[citation needed] With the move to such retailers, Parker weakened its traditional product warranty on its high end pens, moving from a lifetime warranty to a two year warranty."
Frankly, I expect it to be a pointless bunfight - entertaining but just for the gaffes.
I suspect the politicos and partisans are not enjoying their downs, and the general public are blissfully unaware of all this emotion.
The volatility should throw up lots of betting opportunities but the betting market moves fairly slowly and seems to ignore individual polls - though it does reflect trends.
Meanwhile, with the election now plastered all over the media, surely that means that anyone who will EVER be interested in the election will be by the end of this week? That COULD produce a decisive shift in the polls over the coming days as people get into a proper "election mindset". We could see the many people who say they prefer Dave as PM move over to the Tories. Or we could see the people who are terrified of another Tory government (which vastly outnumbers the people who are actively afraid of a Labour government; the complete lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a different thing to fear) rally round Labour,. squeezing down the Green, Red Kipper and non-votes columns.
Re L&N, if there's another Ipsos/MORI I'll update. March predicts a 7.9% Tory lead and a 67 seat lead...
It was a ridiculous decision anyway. With 0 elected MPs at the last election they should never have been considered for Major status in any constituent country.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
The Conservatives are big enough and ugly enough to put up with a few jibes but woe betide anyone who even says a word against them. It's that peculiar double-standard cloaked in a thin skin that speaks volumes.
There are some Conservatives who have tried to make Coalition work and they are much appreciated - there are unfortunately others who understood "Coalition" to mean "support everything the Conservatives want without complaint or objection".
Good grief.
Also, OFCOM did rule UKIP had major party status.
The TV Coverage is based on giving the main exposure to the three parties which are Major parties in Great Britain. This is a seperate category to national Major parties such as UKIP, the SNP and Plaid.
There is a good argument that this should be changed for broadcasts which are GB wide but so far OFCOM do not require this.
But there is an even better argument that UKIP should not be a Major party as they do not have the electoral results at general elections to support this.
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
Excluding NI, they additionally classify three Major Parties in Nations. The SNP in Scotland, Plaid in Wales and UKIP in Wales and England. None of these give them the same status as Labour, Tories or Liberals under current OFCOM rules.
Ah the old guard, we'll miss em when they've gone
Dair would blackball any newcomers from the establishment!
He says...
''The cyclical story was the one that undid the last Labour government, for Brown assumed growth would continue for ever. He had, he said, abolished “Tory boom and bust”.
...
The cyclical story does, however, carry one common-sense message for the incoming government: you must use the good years to strengthen public finances so they can withstand the bad ones.''
First - The tories are saying they will use the good years to strengthen the bad ones. Labour are not. Labours record is clear on this.
Second - It was not the cycle which undid the last labour govt. It was the way they let the structural deficit runaway. They did not control spending quite the opposite - they let it rip - and this is the millstone around our necks now.
The next tory govt would indeed continue to cut spending to eliminate the structural deficit. From this basis we as a country can then manage the cyclical ups and downs of the deficit. Since we have zero inflation then no govt could use that to whittle away the debt ratio. The only policy is continued stringency on spending. Anyone with Labour on that?
Your initial post was that under the OFCOM ruling UKIP should get the same coverage as Labour, Liberals and Tories. This was wrong because you clearly do not understand the ruling OFCOM made and you clearly do not understand the OFCOM rules.
Your mewling isn't targetted correctly and arguing your point while not understanding what your talking about does you no favours.
Something similar happened in 1983. Up till a fortnight before polling day, the Conservatives were polling close to 50%, and the Alliance below 20%. As it became clear that Labour hadn't a hope, a fair number switched from Conservative to Alliance.
I think Ozzy got the spending side of the deficit just about right. But the deficit remains a big ugly sucker because the revenue side isn't there. We need more tax. But...to get more tax the answer is NOT raising taxes but to grow. I think this is why Labour are dangerous. I think they will raise taxes and try some degree or other of central planning/control - with resultant damage to the economy. I think Dave n Ozzy will seek to extend supply side reforms and business liberation.
The Tories and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance in Scotland, yet are considered major parties and so get UK wide access on the back of it.. utter nonsense
I felt it had some great core messages that were entirely lost in the fluffy stuff and required too much attention even when I was watching it deliberately. It was also BORING. Nothing captured my attention or made me think.
It failed the sticky-test. I hope their next ones are much tighter and crisper. I like Martin Freeman and refuse to watch the LHQ PEB as it'll colour my view of his performances.
Farage now needs a bounce from the debates.
The Tories and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance in Scotland, yet are considered major parties and so get UK wide access on the back of it.. utter nonsense
Finally it's got through to you.
You're problem isn't with the broadcasters - they are just following the current OFCOM rules. There seems to be a lot of misconception amongst Kippers of what the OFCOM ruling meant for UKIP - a second PEB in England and Wales only - nothing else.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/582895680995373056
You're problem isn't with the broadcasters - they are just following the current OFCOM rules. There seems to be a lot of misconception amongst Kippers of what the OFCOM ruling meant for UKIP - a second PEB in England and Wales only - nothing else.
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I am wearing Orthapaedic shoes
But its nonsense
Good grief.
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition.
Labour made offers as well.
The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
Ashcroft marginal polling tomorrow may be the fillip we lefties need. Let's see....
Mr. Hopkins, 'running scared' at 4/1 looks tempting.
http://blog.paddypower.com/2015/03/30/damian-mcbride-my-501-outside-bet-to-be-next-labour-leader-if-ed-miliband-gets-the-bullet/
Harry Findlay, Terry Ramsden and Dave Ulliot
Well worth a watch....
Labour made offers as well.
The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
Surely the point was that without a coalition there was a serious and real danger of a “run on the pound”? The fact of a government being formed which looked as though it would last a good few months scotched that possibility.
That members on each side didn’t like everything that was being done isn’t the point. We’ve not had a peacetime coalition in the country since WWII, and the one example before that wasn’t a shining success. The physical structure of Parliament itself mitigates them being successful.