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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings new

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.
    This poll is in Labour constituencies after all. Are you comparing like with like?

    What I find remarkable is, again, the utterly static Tory vote.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Pit, only a few? ;)

    First half of 2014 was very good (I think it was the best half of any year so far). Latter half was flat.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Is this his Lordships idea of quashing conspiracy theories - or simply starting another..! ; )
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Carnyx said:

    Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.
    This poll is in Labour constituencies after all. Are you comparing like with like?

    What I find remarkable is, again, the utterly static Tory vote.

    So much for them dying out, as some predicted. They are being replenished somehow!!
  • It is official the Mail ComRes figures were right

    @stvharry: ITV News poll of Scottish seats show 19-point swing from Labour to the SNP http://t.co/TRsf0HXvrr
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    As a Conservative, I think it would be wholly dishonest and disreputable for the government to change the electorate to favour its side in a referendum. It would be the equivalent of a UKIP government raising the voting age to 25 for it. The voting age in this country is 18, and that should be the voting age in any referendum.

    I agree, but we are talking about a scenario where we wouldn't have a Conservative government.

    There seems to be some kind of bizarre mindset amongst the Kippers that somehow it would be Cameron's fault if, by voting against him, they bring about disagreeable consequences for the country. Utterly weird.
    It would only be David Cameron's fault if he accepted the demands. I would like to think he's a decent enough chap to rule out such conditions. But I would regard him as breaking his pledge if he agreed one in a way that is engineered to favour his own side.

    These Liberal Democrats really do have some cheek though. What is it about the European Union that brings out the dishonesty in people? I'm (just) in favour of our EU membership, but the constant shenanigans pro-Europeans engage with to dodge democracy does them no favours at all. I can certainly understand why people vote for Farage just to thumb their noses at the lot of them.
    As a eurosceptic I would rather no referendum than a referendum which has been fixed from the start. If that was the Lib Dems terms in order to prop up the Tories I would expect the backbenchers to be mightily annoyed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    LOL....what a fudge...

    A deal has been done to fulfil a series of live shows that were planned before the presenter was dropped from the show for hitting a producer.

    The gigs will be stripped of all BBC branding and content and will be called Clarkson, Hammond and May Live.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32137424
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MP_SE said:

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    As a Conservative, I think it would be wholly dishonest and disreputable for the government to change the electorate to favour its side in a referendum. It would be the equivalent of a UKIP government raising the voting age to 25 for it. The voting age in this country is 18, and that should be the voting age in any referendum.

    I agree, but we are talking about a scenario where we wouldn't have a Conservative government.

    There seems to be some kind of bizarre mindset amongst the Kippers that somehow it would be Cameron's fault if, by voting against him, they bring about disagreeable consequences for the country. Utterly weird.
    It would only be David Cameron's fault if he accepted the demands. I would like to think he's a decent enough chap to rule out such conditions. But I would regard him as breaking his pledge if he agreed one in a way that is engineered to favour his own side.

    These Liberal Democrats really do have some cheek though. What is it about the European Union that brings out the dishonesty in people? I'm (just) in favour of our EU membership, but the constant shenanigans pro-Europeans engage with to dodge democracy does them no favours at all. I can certainly understand why people vote for Farage just to thumb their noses at the lot of them.
    As a eurosceptic I would rather no referendum than a referendum which has been fixed from the start. If that was the Lib Dems terms in order to prop up the Tories I would expect the backbenchers to be mightily annoyed.

    IIRC the LibDems did not want a referendum on The Lisbon Treaty they said they wanted a referendum on EU In/Out. As a former Tory MP said, we hate Labour but we despise the LibDems.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    LOL....what a fudge...

    A deal has been done to fulfil a series of live shows that were planned before the presenter was dropped from the show for hitting a producer.

    The gigs will be stripped of all BBC branding and content and will be called Clarkson, Hammond and May Live.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32137424

    Wonder if the ticket holders can still sue for their money back, given it is hardly what was advertised.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Carnyx said:

    Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.
    This poll is in Labour constituencies after all. Are you comparing like with like?

    What I find remarkable is, again, the utterly static Tory vote.

    Do we have the poll figure?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    One of the main reasons I didn't stand for Ukip this time... Someone who is standing told me to prepare for my, and my families, private lives to be investigated by a firm paid by the Tories. My parents are Pensioners w high blood pressure, it didn't seem worth the risk

    Alexandra Swann (@AlexandralSwann)
    31/03/2015 11:17
    Fascist Bullies Hounding UKIP Candidates And Supporters - Breitbart bit.ly/1MssOfh via @BreitbartNews
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    It is official the Mail ComRes figures were right

    @stvharry: ITV News poll of Scottish seats show 19-point swing from Labour to the SNP http://t.co/TRsf0HXvrr

    I cannot wait for the data tables!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Why don't Clarkson may and Hammond tell theBBC to F right off and do the shows anyway without the involvement of the BBC?????
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Yes, that looks like the poll being released early. 19% is perhaps just a hint of swingback to Labour.
    This poll is in Labour constituencies after all. Are you comparing like with like?

    What I find remarkable is, again, the utterly static Tory vote.

    So much for them dying out, as some predicted. They are being replenished somehow!!
    If you mean what I think you mean, it's a bit early to confirm or refute that hypothesis on the sort of timescale we have - still within margin of error. But it's an interesting point. They're certainly not increasing, despite some other predictions.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    First leaflet of the campaign received tonight, for AndrewJones, the Tory candidate, for Harrogate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    Why don't Clarkson may and Hammond tell theBBC to F right off and do the shows anyway without the involvement of the BBC?????

    Because the BBC signed the contract in the first place?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Carnyx said:

    Why don't Clarkson may and Hammond tell theBBC to F right off and do the shows anyway without the involvement of the BBC?????

    Because the BBC signed the contract in the first place?

    but the BBC sacked Clarkson.. Top Gear wont happen with May and Hammond plus another at least I don't think so, so they have nothing to lose.. why should Clarkson do anything for the BBC.?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    May2015 ‏@May2015NS · 1m1 minute ago
    Key point—ComRes/ITV poll shows SNP 43 & Lab 37 but 'only' polls 40 Lab-held seats. Implied nat poll is 45 SNP/30 Lab—similar to other polls

    The SNP figure seems to remain solid - Labour seem to have squeezed the rest a bit.
  • New Thread
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    isam said:

    One of the main reasons I didn't stand for Ukip this time... Someone who is standing told me to prepare for my, and my families, private lives to be investigated by a firm paid by the Tories. My parents are Pensioners w high blood pressure, it didn't seem worth the risk

    Alexandra Swann (@AlexandralSwann)
    31/03/2015 11:17
    Fascist Bullies Hounding UKIP Candidates And Supporters - Breitbart bit.ly/1MssOfh via @BreitbartNews

    Whilst I don't agree with a lot of what UKIP say (no real surprise there) - I am really sorry that you (understandably) felt unable to stand as a candidate for those reasons. Democracy should be open to all, without fear or favour, where ideas are criticized and debated robustly, but personal attacks are unacceptable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    Carnyx said:

    Why don't Clarkson may and Hammond tell theBBC to F right off and do the shows anyway without the involvement of the BBC?????

    Because the BBC signed the contract in the first place?

    but the BBC sacked Clarkson.. Top Gear wont happen with May and Hammond plus another at least I don't think so, so they have nothing to lose.. why should Clarkson do anything for the BBC.?
    To earn some money/get his indy act on the road, so to speak? Plus BBC don't have to pay up.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Why don't Clarkson may and Hammond tell theBBC to F right off and do the shows anyway without the involvement of the BBC?????

    Because the BBC signed the contract in the first place?

    but the BBC sacked Clarkson.. Top Gear wont happen with May and Hammond plus another at least I don't think so, so they have nothing to lose.. why should Clarkson do anything for the BBC.?
    To earn some money/get his indy act on the road, so to speak? Plus BBC don't have to pay up.

    If I were Clarkson then I would buy back the TopGear rights from the BBC. Surely now for sale at a knockdown price...
This discussion has been closed.