I suspect one clear learning of the last 5 years is that if we have coalitions then the minor party should get whole departments entirely to itself rather than a body here and a body there.
No. They should be here and there, otherwise, the big party will run riot ! The LDs were basically fooled by the Tories. They never realised that they always carried a veto and thus were equal partners. After all, as we saw with boundary changes, the Tories could do sweet FA by themselves.
I think Lab, Lib should go for PR. Even UKIP will support them ! Not surprisingly, the SNP will find a reason why, in Westminster elections, it should be FPTP.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
Good grief.
You've added the word "fault", not me. I'm merely pointing out the fact that the Coalition could never have happened had David Cameron not wanted to, or rather not the Coalition we have now.
Cameron could have tried to form a minority in the likelihood the LDs wouldn't doa deal with Labour but he realised the Conservatives hadn't won the election and the country needed a stable Government.
By the way, no need to be so meldramatic - "good grief" makes you sound like Charlie Brown.
OT I'm watching Alias before it goes off Amazon Prime and a scene got me thinking - a chappy asks for his beau's father for permission to marry his daughter before proposing.
Does this still happen? My boyfriend asked my Dad, he really wanted his blessing. My Dad didn't give a toss and I suspect thought it was supine [he's was a bastard so frankly I was astonished my hubbie even considered approaching him].
Extremely questionable past aside, McBride actually writes quite well and still seems "in the know" about Labour internal politics.
Given it was his job to do so, not exactly surprising he knows about Labour politics. Maybe my "Moral Compass" is such that I don't employ scumbags, who are willing to disseminate disgusting lies for politician gain.
I think Ozzy got the spending side of the deficit just about right. But the deficit remains a big ugly sucker because the revenue side isn't there. We need more tax. But...to get more tax the answer is NOT raising taxes but to grow. I think this is why Labour are dangerous. I think they will raise taxes and try some degree or other of central planning/control - with resultant damage to the economy. I think Dave n Ozzy will seek to extend supply side reforms and business liberation.
There is something in that. The deficit is also bigger because the structural deficit is bigger than thought and that in turn must have an effect on revenues. Osborne has cut employers NI and has cut Corporation Tax. Revenues would seem to be dragging - but they did under Labour. Spending rose when we had growth under labour and so did deficits. Also when Osborne got in the Treasury he was appalled at the level of tax evasion prevalent. The govt are spending a lot of money to get more back from the avoiders. Of course from the supply side point of view its difficult with a: a LD coalition and b: a massive deficit.
It may be a lame excuse but some things are politically difficult - not least when you know the seat boundaries are against you. A tory govt next time would allow the boundaries to be properly adjusted, and with any luck equalised as well, for 2020 instead of being fought on 2010's as now. This at least would give the tories a fair chance to justify their actions.
I suspect one clear learning of the last 5 years is that if we have coalitions then the minor party should get whole departments entirely to itself rather than a body here and a body there.
No. They should be here and there, otherwise, the big party will run riot ! The LDs were basically fooled by the Tories. They never realised that they always carried a veto and thus were equal partners. After all, as we saw with boundary changes, the Tories could do sweet FA by themselves.
I think Lab, Lib should go for PR. Even UKIP will support them ! Not surprisingly, the SNP will find a reason why, in Westminster elections, it should be FPTP.
God bless Paddy Power. My bank account is now quite a lot healthier thanks to them paying up on Nick Clegg making it to the election and John Bercow remaining in situ to the end of term.
According to WiKi the Lords Prayer as it occurs in Matthew 6:9–13 contains the lines...
Give us this day our daily bread, and forgive us our debts, as we also have forgiven our debtors. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
On this occasion Wiki is correct, at least as far as the King James Authorized version of the Bible goes. The Book of Common Prayer does use the word "trespasses" rather than debts, though. Why? I have no idea. I remember pointing out the difference to the curate who took the confirmation classes and his explanation was such that even as a child I could recognise it as bullshit (actually I don't think he knew about the difference and was just waffling - he went on to become a Bishop). If you want an explanation you'll have to wait until a good CofE theologian comes along, such as Mr. Charles, gent of the Parish.
I think Ozzy got the spending side of the deficit just about right. But the deficit remains a big ugly sucker because the revenue side isn't there. We need more tax. But...to get more tax the answer is NOT raising taxes but to grow. I think this is why Labour are dangerous. I think they will raise taxes and try some degree or other of central planning/control - with resultant damage to the economy. I think Dave n Ozzy will seek to extend supply side reforms and business liberation.
Spending rose when we had growth under labour and so did deficits.
Be very careful. GDP includes state spending - so borrowing a mountain and pissing it up the wall = GDP growth! Labour are good at that. If you charted instead Debt Adjusted Growth (DAG = GDP growth minus debt growth) you'd see that the real productive economy under Labour was a much much less jubilant affair. Shite in fact. GDP is a bollocks measure to target if you can achieve it by borrowing and splurging. DAG is marginally less shite because it strips that nonsense out.
OT I'm watching Alias before it goes off Amazon Prime and a scene got me thinking - a chappy asks for his beau's father for permission to marry his daughter before proposing.
Does this still happen? My boyfriend asked my Dad, he really wanted his blessing. My Dad didn't give a toss and I suspect thought it was supine [he's was a bastard so frankly I was astonished my hubbie even considered approaching him].
It may appear a little anachronistic today, but I’d imagine the social group (for want of a better phrase) who would have consider it proper to do so back then, would still do so today. – I certainly asked for permission from my future father in law.
Big improvement. For all of that there was much talk of Robinson returning for the election. I hope he stays well, and recuperates nicely, but also stays off the screen, although Huw Edwards potentially double trumps any gain .
The British people should surely be even shorter than that?
Shadsy won handily on the Paxo show. But this will be a lot talkier and perhaps a lot more soundbite-oriented.
"Out Of Touch" @ evens looks fair.
Agreed. My pick would be;
Out of touch @ evens Hard Choices @ 2/1 Tough decisions @ 9/4
The latter two are defensive terms, reasonably likely to be rolled out by Dave, Nick & Ed as the others (and the moderator) challenge them on their record and they try to justify their failures.
They're also coupled words - soundbite phrases which are established in the political narrative. The main danger is another combination of words, like "difficult decisions" or "tough choices" gives a near miss.
IMO 2/1 & 9/4 are reasonable odds for a small punt to add some extra excitement to proceedings.
Mr. Llama, did you know the wedding vows are mistranslated? 'Love, honour and obey' should be 'love, honour and respect'.
No didn't know that. That said mistranslated from what, though? The marriage service is a rite peculiar to each denomination and the Book of Common Prayer was written in English.
The bigger question as far as the CofE rite (as per the BCP) is concerned to my mind is that I vowed to my wife that I would "... Plight thee my troth" whereas she only gave her troth to me. That Thomas Cranmer bloke has a lot to answer for.
OT I'm watching Alias before it goes off Amazon Prime and a scene got me thinking - a chappy asks for his beau's father for permission to marry his daughter before proposing.
Does this still happen? My boyfriend asked my Dad, he really wanted his blessing. My Dad didn't give a toss and I suspect thought it was supine [he's was a bastard so frankly I was astonished my hubbie even considered approaching him].
More or less.
Try courting and getting married in rural Asia I didn't get to ask my wife's father as he died when she was a child, but I did get to ask her guardian, but that was after several weeks of sedate walks with my wife with a band of chaperones following along just out of ear shot behind us, graduating after a few day to being permitted to hold hands. Family trips to the beach with a band of aunties keeping a beady eye from just out of ear shot, and endless questions and meaningful looks from the afore mentioned aunties and uncles. It was rather fun actually, not sure the western youth of today would stand for it though!
Re: the Cleggasm. There was one, wasn't there? I thought the LDs added about 500,000 votes at the last GE to their already very strong 2005 figure, but that they got them in the wrong places so they lost some seats. Or am I completely imagining this?
Yes there was, they still ended up losing seats though.
On the bingo: negative terms may be worth more. For every 1 speaker there are 8 potential attackers [ok, Cameron's not going to go all guns blazing for the Greens, but you see what I mean]. There's most scope for mockery/taking the piss and so forth than there is for people saying "This is why you should positively vote for me".
Is he being serious? Or just muddying waters? His list is desperately thin.
Dan's the man. He is building a profile and would be a nightmare leader for the Tories and the Tory press to attack. But a back story is not enough - you have to be a leader (which he no doubt is given the rank he achieved in the military) and, just as important, you have to have a coherent world view that can be expressed in clear, understandable English. Of course either trait would make him better than EdM, but he may need more time to develop the latter. Here's hoping.
I suspect one clear learning of the last 5 years is that if we have coalitions then the minor party should get whole departments entirely to itself rather than a body here and a body there.
No. They should be here and there, otherwise, the big party will run riot ! The LDs were basically fooled by the Tories. They never realised that they always carried a veto and thus were equal partners. After all, as we saw with boundary changes, the Tories could do sweet FA by themselves.
I think Lab, Lib should go for PR. Even UKIP will support them ! Not surprisingly, the SNP will find a reason why, in Westminster elections, it should be FPTP.
Creepy Whisper : - "Scotland is roundly rejecting SLAB. Switching to PR could, accidentally, let SLAB in by the back door. And no-one wants that."
Mr. Llama, did you know the wedding vows are mistranslated? 'Love, honour and obey' should be 'love, honour and respect'.
No didn't know that. That said mistranslated from what, though? The marriage service is a rite peculiar to each denomination and the Book of Common Prayer was written in English.
The bigger question as far as the CofE rite (as per the BCP) is concerned to my mind is that I vowed to my wife that I would "... Plight thee my troth" whereas she only gave her troth to me. That Thomas Cranmer bloke has a lot to answer for.
I'm more upset that he removed the wife's promise to be "buxum" to her man!
Extremely questionable past aside, McBride actually writes quite well and still seems "in the know" about Labour internal politics.
Given it was his job to do so, not exactly surprising he knows about Labour politics. Maybe my "Moral Compass" is such that I don't employ scumbags, who are willing to disseminate disgusting lies for politician gain.
Liz has dropped a lot since I pitched in a couple of months ago.
Mr. Observer, very solid back story, as you say. Policy matters, though.
It'd also be interesting to see if political insiders would use their expertise in the dark arts to try and oust him.
Policy is crucial. But world view and values are just as important in this day and age. What does he stand for, what does he believe and how does he express it all?
Labour 35% LibDem 35% Conservatives 15% UKIP 7% Grn 5%
Is there any more to the poll than that?
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
That actually isn't a bad poll for the Cons in London. I think UKIP are a bit high as well, could bode well for the Tories, may add a couple of points on polling day.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
Is he being serious? Or just muddying waters? His list is desperately thin.
Dan's the man. He is building a profile and would be a nightmare leader for the Tories and the Tory press to attack. But a back story is not enough - you have to be a leader (which he no doubt is given the rank he achieved in the military) and, just as important, you have to have a coherent world view that can be expressed in clear, understandable English. Of course either trait would make him better than EdM, but he may need more time to develop the latter. Here's hoping.
I need to do more work on my political anorak - I have literally never heard of Owen Smith who McPoison tips as the value bet.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
So according to Sporting Index we expect 271 + 1 + 42 + 3 = 317 committed anti-Tory UK mainland UK MPs in the commons post election.
Throw in 3 SDLP, one Alliance and a few lefty LibDems and it's hard to see how Miliband doesn't become PM on these figures. So maybe I back the Tories to get 287+ on Sporting Index and back Miliband at Evens to be next PM?
Labour 35% LibDem 35% Conservatives 15% UKIP 7% Grn 5%
Is there any more to the poll than that?
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
That actually isn't a bad poll for the Cons in London. I think UKIP are a bit high as well, could bode well for the Tories, may add a couple of points on polling day.
I imagine that in the counties of Kent, Essex, and Herts., there'll be little to no swing to Labour, so they need a good performance in London to offset this.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
When he wasn't doing it directly his puppet Oakeshott was out there doing it for him.
Is he being serious? Or just muddying waters? His list is desperately thin.
Dan's the man. He is building a profile and would be a nightmare leader for the Tories and the Tory press to attack. But a back story is not enough - you have to be a leader (which he no doubt is given the rank he achieved in the military) and, just as important, you have to have a coherent world view that can be expressed in clear, understandable English. Of course either trait would make him better than EdM, but he may need more time to develop the latter. Here's hoping.
What does Dan Jarvis actually believe, though?
I like the idea of a leader who has lived a real life and has some perspective (unlike these God-awful PPE people who think the only thing that matters is getting one over on the Tories, and consequences of policies in the real world be damned), but I can't remember him saying anything about his political views.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
Get used to coalitions, this one will look a beacon of harmony compared to some that may come about. Is it not to be expected that the two parts of the coalition would try to get their own way and necessarily have to compromise? Is it not obvious that they would try to spin the results to their own advantage? The Tories are probably more guilty of this than the LibDems and it was easier for them because they have the Press on their side.
Labour 35% LibDem 35% Conservatives 15% UKIP 7% Grn 5%
Is there any more to the poll than that?
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
That actually isn't a bad poll for the Cons in London. I think UKIP are a bit high as well, could bode well for the Tories, may add a couple of points on polling day.
I imagine that in the counties of Kent, Essex, and Herts., there'll be little to no swing to Labour, so they need a good performance in London to offset this.
Labour could have some hilariously contrasting performances in this election. Could be going up by about 10% in the likes of Enfield while dropping by the same in Thurrock.
Completely O/T: last night I caught part of a lecture which Martha Lane Fox was giving on the internet. What she was saying was reasonably interesting but what caught my attention was how badly she presented it - she was standing behind a lectern and speaking - but much too fast (usually a sign of nerves), with very little variation in tone, even when giving a personal anecdote .
Now this is is not a dig at her. It's hard doing talks/presentations in front of an audience. But learning how to speak in public, how to tell a story - whether that's politics, commerce, selling your services as a professional or whatever - to your audience, how to communicate in a way that resonates and inspires is an absolutely vital skill and one which is all too often lacking. It's one of those "soft" but essential skills I would teach our students.
Labour 35% LibDem 35% Conservatives 15% UKIP 7% Grn 5%
Is there any more to the poll than that?
Ah, Conservative 34%, Lab 45%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each, and Green 4%.
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
I've backed Labour at decent odds in some London seats but they certainly remain odds against.
Hendon Brentford & Isleworth Enfield North Ealing Central Acton Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ?
If Labour don't gain Enfield North then they will be in serious trouble. The Tories struggled there last time because the boundaries changed in favour of Labour when part of the Edmonton constituency was transferred in.
'This constituency has the highest ranking in England and Wales for people owning their own homes (85%), according to the ONS 2011 Census, and ranks second for those describing themselves as Christian (81%). It also has an older-than-average age profile.' [Sefton Central]
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 31/03/2015 14:31 Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
Completely O/T: last night I caught part of a lecture which Martha Lane Fox was giving on the internet. What she was saying was reasonably interesting but what caught my attention was how badly she presented it - she was standing behind a lectern and speaking - but much too fast (usually a sign of nerves), with very little variation in tone, even when giving a personal anecdote .
Now this is is not a dig at her. It's hard doing talks/presentations in front of an audience. But learning how to speak in public, how to tell a story - whether that's politics, commerce, selling your services as a professional or whatever - to your audience, how to communicate in a way that resonates and inspires is an absolutely vital skill and one which is all too often lacking. It's one of those "soft" but essential skills I would teach our students.
At my kids school they start to do presentations to the class about various topics in early Primary school. By L7, where my son is now, they are expected to use power point and slides from their ipads to supplement the presentation.
I can't claim my son really likes it but I agree it is very good experience and training for them.
It is surprising that MLF has not had some decent media training. It seems public speaking is a significant part of her livelihood these days.
Mr. L, the presentation I had to do, as part of a group, at university was a bit uneasy. However, we cunningly got the lecturers (and other students) on-side by giving them free chocolate at the start of the lecture.
Mr. Isam, the idea of non-Britons voting in such a referendum is ridiculous and unacceptable.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 31/03/2015 14:31 Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
What an odd tweet. Do UKIP expect the Conservatives to dictate the Lib Dems' negotiating position?
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
When he wasn't doing it directly his puppet Oakeshott was out there doing it for him.
I'm very disappointed in Cable but he and Oakeshott are probably far more knowledgeable on the economy than anyone on the Tory front bench. It's surprising how second rate the Tories now are. If the likes of Lawson and Joseph weren't exactly people you'd want to be stuck on a desert island with, they were worth some grudging respect. I suppose Labour haven't been left in great shape by Blair and Brown either.
OT I'm watching Alias before it goes off Amazon Prime and a scene got me thinking - a chappy asks for his beau's father for permission to marry his daughter before proposing.
Does this still happen? My boyfriend asked my Dad, he really wanted his blessing. My Dad didn't give a toss and I suspect thought it was supine [he's was a bastard so frankly I was astonished my hubbie even considered approaching him].
More or less.
Try courting and getting married in rural Asia I didn't get to ask my wife's father as he died when she was a child, but I did get to ask her guardian, but that was after several weeks of sedate walks with my wife with a band of chaperones following along just out of ear shot behind us, graduating after a few day to being permitted to hold hands. Family trips to the beach with a band of aunties keeping a beady eye from just out of ear shot, and endless questions and meaningful looks from the afore mentioned aunties and uncles. It was rather fun actually, not sure the western youth of today would stand for it though!
Reminds me of a friend in my youth. He went to Greece to visit some distant relatives. While there he met an attractive girl and idled away some innocent time with her. But the relatives thought they should get married, which they did.
Is he being serious? Or just muddying waters? His list is desperately thin.
Dan's the man. He is building a profile and would be a nightmare leader for the Tories and the Tory press to attack. But a back story is not enough - you have to be a leader (which he no doubt is given the rank he achieved in the military) and, just as important, you have to have a coherent world view that can be expressed in clear, understandable English. Of course either trait would make him better than EdM, but he may need more time to develop the latter. Here's hoping.
What does Dan Jarvis actually believe, though?
I like the idea of a leader who has lived a real life and has some perspective (unlike these God-awful PPE people who think the only thing that matters is getting one over on the Tories, and consequences of policies in the real world be damned), but I can't remember him saying anything about his political views.
What do you think of Andy Burnham btw, Southam?
I agree with you on Jarvis. We need to ,learn more about what he believes in and what drives him. Why is he Labour? I think Burnham maybe the anti-Boris - the further south he goes the less folk like him. With Boris it is the opposite, of course. Burnham would probably help make safe Labour seats safer, but I am not sure he has reach beyond the existing base.
Mr. L, the presentation I had to do, as part of a group, at university was a bit uneasy. However, we cunningly got the lecturers (and other students) on-side by giving them free chocolate at the start of the lecture.
Mr. Isam, the idea of non-Britons voting in such a referendum is ridiculous and unacceptable.
When I first called at the Bar I found it difficult but I soon realised that an audience were not going to constantly interrupt me and ask me awkward questions to which I did not know the answer so it was a lot easier than appearing in court.
Add in the joy of not having a stupid client screwing it up for you and it now seems pretty straightforward.
At University my favourite subject by a mile was contract and the tutor had each student present a paper a week about which everyone then tore into and disagreed with. It taught me how to debate, in fact it taught me a whole lot more useful legal skills than the rest of the 4 years put together! I would almost certainly have never been a court lawyer if it was not for that class.
The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
So the Scotland ComRes poll out today is apparently Scottish Labour Constituencies only.
Tasty.
Berwickshire etc will remain a delicious mystery until polling day, it seems.
Maybe we could crowd fund a poll?
It's probably Scotland's most interesting seat and yet it has been left alone, undisturbed lest it's rare beauty be ruined.
Someone (Tissue Price?) earlier was asking about the odds that the SNP would finish no lower than second in any seat in Scotland. No worse than evens would be my off-the-cuff guess, and this is the seat where it looks most likely to happen. Actually, the more I think about it, 4/6 seems closer to the mark.
The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
Well, you're either a Member or you're not, I guess...
The most noble and learned Lord has resigned from the Lords! I don't know the specifics of the Act, is this permanent, i.e. he can never enter the chamber again?
Well, you're either a Member or you're not, I guess...
So no un-resigning then? Unless he is re-ennobled, I suppose!
Surely not. I thought he and Dave were not really speaking after the debates about his tax arrangements last time around. Perhaps, given that the election has started, he does not want to risk a repeat.
Mr. Observer, Burnham could appear in the illustrated dictionary next to the definition of lightweight. Man looks constantly on the verge of tears.
Mr. L, my public speaking has been limited, essentially, to that presentation and two readings as a prefect, both of which were Genesis Ch4 vv1-16 (for those wondering, God doesn't like it if you kill your brother, even if God acts like a dick towards you first).
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 31/03/2015 14:31 Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
What an odd tweet. Do UKIP expect the Conservatives to dictate the Lib Dems' negotiating position?
I took it as O'Flynn asking Cameron whether he would differ... Not really that odd
The ES London poll shows possibly the limit of the Labour push. It's tightened since last time and the Tory losses, if kept to 5/6 do not bode well for Ed as PM. Every poll since the Saturday YG has seen Lab fall back relative to the Tories. Is it a trend? Who knows? Edit. Except TNS.
Edited extra bit: just to make a serious point, this is the sort of identity politics bullshit I loathe. And which leads to pink Barbie vans. And anti-white quotas.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election
You're kidding? It's the Tories fault that the LDs formed HMG for the first time in 80yrs?
At less than double digits in the polls - the LibDems need to accept that they made the bed they now lie in.
As a long-standing Coalitionista, I find the SDPish sharpness of some LDs most unattractive. Comparing Tories or Labour to psychopaths with rusty knives is beyond laughable.
Eating babies looks more sensible.
I do think the Coalition has done some very good things in spite of the low-level and continuous hostility of a group of Conservatives who, lacking any kind of political courage themselves, have spent the last five years baiting and heckling the LDs.
To be fair, it wasn't the Liberal Democrats who created the Coalition but David Cameron with his "offer" on the Friday afternoon after the last election so they've also been shouting at the wrong target.
...
Yes its preposterous to 'blame' the tories for the coalition. Labour made offers as well. The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
When he wasn't doing it directly his puppet Oakeshott was out there doing it for him.
I'm very disappointed in Cable but he and Oakeshott are probably far more knowledgeable on the economy than anyone on the Tory front bench. It's surprising how second rate the Tories now are. If the likes of Lawson and Joseph weren't exactly people you'd want to be stuck on a desert island with, they were worth some grudging respect. I suppose Labour haven't been left in great shape by Blair and Brown either.
Cable knows a bit about big business but I think Hammond is easily better than both and Ken Clark probably is as well.
being a maverick mp not wanting to be closely tied to your party's leadership does seem to work better when you're a little fish in a big pond and not half of the party in MP terms.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 31/03/2015 14:31 Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
Pretty yucky, true, but if that's the price, that's the price. Anyone who doesn't like it can simply vote Conservative rather than UKIP and, if enough do so, the problem won't arise.
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 31/03/2015 14:31 Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
Pretty yucky, true, but if that's the price, that's the price. Anyone who doesn't like it can simply vote Conservative rather than UKIP and, if enough do so, the problem won't arise.
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.
Comments
I think Lab, Lib should go for PR. Even UKIP will support them ! Not surprisingly, the SNP will find a reason why, in Westminster elections, it should be FPTP.
The British people should surely be even shorter than that?
Good grief.
You've added the word "fault", not me. I'm merely pointing out the fact that the Coalition could never have happened had David Cameron not wanted to, or rather not the Coalition we have now.
Cameron could have tried to form a minority in the likelihood the LDs wouldn't doa deal with Labour but he realised the Conservatives hadn't won the election and the country needed a stable Government.
By the way, no need to be so meldramatic - "good grief" makes you sound like Charlie Brown.
Does this still happen? My boyfriend asked my Dad, he really wanted his blessing. My Dad didn't give a toss and I suspect thought it was supine [he's was a bastard so frankly I was astonished my hubbie even considered approaching him].
"Out Of Touch" @ evens looks fair.
http://www.samizdata.net/2015/03/the-force-is-strong-in-this-one/#comments
This is not investment advice blah, blah etc
UKIP still have a tail a mile long. Sell at your own risk !
Osborne has cut employers NI and has cut Corporation Tax.
Revenues would seem to be dragging - but they did under Labour. Spending rose when we had growth under labour and so did deficits.
Also when Osborne got in the Treasury he was appalled at the level of tax evasion prevalent. The govt are spending a lot of money to get more back from the avoiders.
Of course from the supply side point of view its difficult with a: a LD coalition and b: a massive deficit.
It may be a lame excuse but some things are politically difficult - not least when you know the seat boundaries are against you. A tory govt next time would allow the boundaries to be properly adjusted, and with any luck equalised as well, for 2020 instead of being fought on 2010's as now. This at least would give the tories a fair chance to justify their actions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32127044
http://www.buzzfeed.com/patrickstrudwick/meet-britains-first-hiv-positive-parliamentary-candidate#.pyMwgwX3A
His story is grim, but only too believable. He won't be elected, but it's good that he's stood for election and I wish him well.
For all of that there was much talk of Robinson returning for the election. I hope he stays well, and recuperates nicely, but also stays off the screen, although Huw Edwards potentially double trumps any gain .
Out of touch @ evens
Hard Choices @ 2/1
Tough decisions @ 9/4
The latter two are defensive terms, reasonably likely to be rolled out by Dave, Nick & Ed as the others (and the moderator) challenge them on their record and they try to justify their failures.
They're also coupled words - soundbite phrases which are established in the political narrative. The main danger is another combination of words, like "difficult decisions" or "tough choices" gives a near miss.
IMO 2/1 & 9/4 are reasonable odds for a small punt to add some extra excitement to proceedings.
If so then it's hard to wrong with Vanguard.
The bigger question as far as the CofE rite (as per the BCP) is concerned to my mind is that I vowed to my wife that I would "... Plight thee my troth" whereas she only gave her troth to me. That Thomas Cranmer bloke has a lot to answer for.
Try courting and getting married in rural Asia
London Poll
How #GE2010 LibDem voters would vote #GE2015
Labour 35%
LibDem 35%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 7%
Grn 5%
On the bingo: negative terms may be worth more. For every 1 speaker there are 8 potential attackers [ok, Cameron's not going to go all guns blazing for the Greens, but you see what I mean]. There's most scope for mockery/taking the piss and so forth than there is for people saying "This is why you should positively vote for me".
It'd also be interesting to see if political insiders would use their expertise in the dark arts to try and oust him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies
Apologies if others have posted link.
4.5% swing to Labour since 2010. It definitely looks as though Labour will outperform its overall English performance in London.
Hendon
Brentford & Isleworth
Enfield North
Ealing Central Acton
Croydon Central
Where is the next Labour gain coming from in London after that lot ?
Labour made offers as well.
The LDs constantly rubbished their own government. Undermining themsleves in the process.
The LDs did not constantly rubbish their own government . That was done by the Bones Hollobones and other serial Conservative rebels plus those who defected to UKIP .
You have to be joking, Uncle Vince has done nothing but bitch about the coalition since he took the job of "least enthusiastic government minister"
After that, you're looking at Ilford North, Battersea, and Finchley, with leads of 12% or so.
Labour would also gain Hornsey & Wood Green, and Bermondsey, on these numbers, if the swing were uniform.
Throw in 3 SDLP, one Alliance and a few lefty LibDems and it's hard to see how Miliband doesn't become PM on these figures. So maybe I back the Tories to get 287+ on Sporting Index and back Miliband at Evens to be next PM?
When he wasn't doing it directly his puppet Oakeshott was out there doing it for him.
I like the idea of a leader who has lived a real life and has some perspective (unlike these God-awful PPE people who think the only thing that matters is getting one over on the Tories, and consequences of policies in the real world be damned), but I can't remember him saying anything about his political views.
What do you think of Andy Burnham btw, Southam?
Get used to coalitions, this one will look a beacon of harmony compared to some that may come about.
Is it not to be expected that the two parts of the coalition would try to get their own way and necessarily have to compromise? Is it not obvious that they would try to spin the results to their own advantage? The Tories are probably more guilty of this than the LibDems and it was easier for them because they have the Press on their side.
Ashcroft steps down from Lords.
Now this is is not a dig at her. It's hard doing talks/presentations in front of an audience. But learning how to speak in public, how to tell a story - whether that's politics, commerce, selling your services as a professional or whatever - to your audience, how to communicate in a way that resonates and inspires is an absolutely vital skill and one which is all too often lacking. It's one of those "soft" but essential skills I would teach our students.
Guess who has predicted that
And yet it's Labour...
31/03/2015 14:31
Sir Malcolm Bruce tells me Lib side of coalition is preparing for EU referendum in which 16/17 yr olds and EU migrants can vote. Dave, Dave?
I can't claim my son really likes it but I agree it is very good experience and training for them.
It is surprising that MLF has not had some decent media training. It seems public speaking is a significant part of her livelihood these days.
Mr. Isam, the idea of non-Britons voting in such a referendum is ridiculous and unacceptable.
Wtf?
Tasty.
I'm very disappointed in Cable but he and Oakeshott are probably far more knowledgeable on the economy than anyone on the Tory front bench. It's surprising how second rate the Tories now are. If the likes of Lawson and Joseph weren't exactly people you'd want to be stuck on a desert island with, they were worth some grudging respect. I suppose Labour haven't been left in great shape by Blair and Brown either.
Reminds me of a friend in my youth. He went to Greece to visit some distant relatives. While there he met an attractive girl and idled away some innocent time with her. But the relatives thought they should get married, which they did.
It's probably Scotland's most interesting seat and yet it has been left alone, undisturbed lest it's rare beauty be ruined.
Add in the joy of not having a stupid client screwing it up for you and it now seems pretty straightforward.
At University my favourite subject by a mile was contract and the tutor had each student present a paper a week about which everyone then tore into and disagreed with. It taught me how to debate, in fact it taught me a whole lot more useful legal skills than the rest of the 4 years put together! I would almost certainly have never been a court lawyer if it was not for that class.
I'm glad I'm not a bookie.
Mr. L, my public speaking has been limited, essentially, to that presentation and two readings as a prefect, both of which were Genesis Ch4 vv1-16 (for those wondering, God doesn't like it if you kill your brother, even if God acts like a dick towards you first).
Edit. Except TNS.
https://twitter.com/bindelj/status/582802804928036864
Rawr! Fallopian-deprived apes are The Enemy!
Edited extra bit: just to make a serious point, this is the sort of identity politics bullshit I loathe. And which leads to pink Barbie vans. And anti-white quotas.
Cable knows a bit about big business but I think Hammond is easily better than both and Ken Clark probably is as well.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·5 mins5 minutes ago
I know @SunPolitics Kevin Schofield has to follow editors orders, but as I explained, being in Clacton is what I need to do
It's a bit rich of Patrick O'Flynn complaining about the consequences of what he himself is trying hard to make happen.