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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the campaign just about to start new BES polling sugge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but
With the formal hostilities due to start on Thursday with the Channel 4/Sky News event the British Election Study has new polling that suggests that looks at the CON record on key policies.
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http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/comment/articles/2015-03/24/political-betting-guide-uk-general-election-2015
"Hot political betting tips from the bookies
...
A minority government, either Labour or Tory, currently seems under-rated to Betfair's James Midmer: "It's getting hard to see any alternative result."
For Ladbrokes' Matthew Shaddick, it's all about getting data from reliable sources like electionsetc.com or electionforecast.co.uk, and the under-rated possibility of a Labour minority government." "
*innocent face*
It's a good job Labour haven't decided to swallow the whole Tory narrative on the deficit/cuts that only 25% of the public agree with, then. (/sarcasm)
Gives up the CDE of Scotland completely whilst keeping them in the hunt in lower middle class England.
PERFECT.
What Labour could do if they win the election is to do what governments have done for something like 100 of the last 150 years (including most of Thatcher's years in office, and indeed the past 5 years): not worry about running a relatively modest deficit, watch the sky NOT fall in despite some initial hysterical scaremongering, and instead focus on looking after the British people and the public services they depend on.
EC is worth bearing in mind but I attach more weight to the others.
Politicians in an ideal world should be chosen for their judgement above all else, not what baubles they promise to hand out in manifestos. Reality probably somewhere in between I would say
Lab 1.1% lead
Hi- it is updated automatically I think dependant on polls.
Whether they can get the Parliamentary arithmetic to work in their favour in such a scenario is a different question, though.
If Lab + SDLP + Green + PC + SNP > 323, Ed is PM.
Neither is particularly well placed to motivate more people to vote for them.
I'm a bit puzzled by this. Does the NHS sell our X-rays to photographic libraries? I'm pretty certain that I've never consented to any of my medical information being sold to a commercial organisation for advertising purposes. Or is this an X-ray from overseas?
How can a patient's X-ray become a stock photo without the patient explicitly consenting? And if they did not consent, aren't there other obvious questions to be asked about a political party's use of such material than what the X-ray reveals?
Incidentally on the NHS I was at my local hospital this morning for some tests (after the GP's worried look yesterday, I'm rather hoping he's hopelessly wrong on what might be wrong with me) and it has clearly had a lot of money spent on it with more being spent and not just on fripperies but on real improvements. Very impressive. As was the service. I've also noted that my GP practice has improved significantly.
Purely anecdotal I know and I realise that BJO and Foxnsox have the insider's view but I find it hard to reconcile what I see as a patient with the doom'n'gloom I read in the papers about the NHS.
Ed won't even lose his support. It simply won't turn up.
Although votes don't affect that arithmetic directly, obviously this is down to political will/reality and only a Tory lead on votes would convince Cameron to bunker down and run a minority government (for however long).
Lab 1.1% lead
Doubt Danczuk and Woodcock to name but two would need any buttering at all though.
Popcorn all round for either of them.
As to whether Lab + SDLP + Green + PC + SNP would work, that might a bridge too far, even though I don't doubt there is more room for fuge than most people think.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/dup-names-its-price-for-electoral-deal-with-tories-or-labour-1bn-for-northern-ireland-10128931.html
Con + LD + DUP + UKIP ~= 317 on Mr Fisher's model at the moment.
It's brilliant logic - "the markets and business are confident that Osborne has it right, therefore we can completely safely do the opposite and still retain market and business confidence".
Bagpipes are made illegal.
" look if I borrow more then I can affford to pay back my loans"
In any case today's low levels of interest rates are in large part down to the direction of travel of the deficit being downwards, and the fact the economy is growing. Both thanks in no small part to George Osborne.
In terms of the NHS, I am not particularly negative. In Leics things are noticeably better than 5 years ago, with much better co operation between the CCGs and the acute Trust, though possibly we are a bit out of the usual. Certain other trends such as the dumbibg down of medical and nursing training worry me more.
Hope your results prove everything is a false alarm.
Is this due to swingback?
Labour, the Conservatives and the UUP are already grimly aware of the need to count their fingers when shaking on a deal with the DUP. I'm not sure that UKIP have yet realised that.
I hope the scare is just a scare.
Hasn't done all that well today...
'The speech passed without incident. His problems began during the subsequent Q&A, just as he was breezing his way through an answer about NHS agency staff.
“Excuse me!” cut in the man who’d asked him about it. “You haven’t answered my question!”
Mildly startled – as if a sleepy old tabby he was stroking had hissed at him – Mr Cameron tried not answering the question in a different way. But the heckle seemed to have awoken something in the audience. There was now a growing hubbub of unrest.
“Rubbish!” shouted a voice. “Answer the question!” harrumphed another. “I am, sir!” blurted the Prime Minister. The audience didn’t seem convinced. A man with white hair sat irately shaking his stick.
“Look, I’ll be frank,” said Mr Cameron, switching tone from “harassed customer services” to “paternal authority”. “If you’re not satisfied with how elderly people are being looked after by this Government, don’t blame other ministers – blame me.”
“We are!” shouted a man in the audience. The hubbub intensified.
Normally Mr Cameron does Q&A sessions in offices and factories, where audiences are on their best behaviour because their bosses are present. Unfortunately for him, retirees don’t have bosses.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11492472/Sketch-You-havent-answered-my-question-David-Cameron-gets-mugged-by-pensioners.html
Likewise, our membership of the IMF carries no treaty bound obligations regarding deficit levels.
Labour party activist like last time?
This is what blue chip companies do that maintain a constant debt/equity gearing and borrow every year. It makes sense if you are growing and enables you to grow faster if you invest it in growth assets.
If GDP is growing at 3% pa, then government can run a deficit of 3% a year (i.e., borrow £60bn a year) and maintain a constant debt/GDP ratio. There is nothing admirable or desirable about eliminating the deficit if the economy is growing. But it should be invested in the future (education, R&D, infrastructure) rather than consumed now.
http://may2015.com/featured/exclusive-alex-salmond-says-snp-would-vote-down-the-tories-in-a-queens-speech/
The rule of the world is simple:
People lend you money when they are sure you can afford it and will pay it back.
When times are hard and your lenders see that, they want you to repay.
Read about Jim Callaghan and how he got on with the IMF: the net result was an actual reduction in spending on the NHS...
If your debt-to=GDP is 50%, and you run a 3% deficit, and growth is 3% and inflation 1%, then your nominal GDP increases 4% and therefore reduces your debt-to-GDP to 48%. If you then add on the 3% deficit, you get to 51% of GDP.
You need to consider both the starting debt level and the underlying level of inflation.
Also the Greens.
SDLP ?
5 years of pay freezes means people aren't prepared to work for NHS rates when can earn double prostituting their labour via agencies.
Tory solution 5 more years of pay freezes. They still don't get it.
http://order-order.com/2015/03/24/boneheaded-labour-poster-backfiring/
Is the analysis of the x-ray spot on?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11490702/Labour-accused-of-using-inappropriate-election-poster-image-of-potential-victim-of-child-abuse.html
Over to you, Ed.
Anyway I think it backs up a point I made - Labour is more likely to put the Conservatives in power than the SNP, PC and Greens are. Specifically some of their backbenchers abstaining on a Tory Queen's speech...
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/tories-unveil-poster-ed-miliband-dancing-alex-salmond-calling-tune
Another thread confirming the Tories can't win here.
On Lab minority too so prepare for 5 more years of DC!