politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the poll
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From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.0 -
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechangerkle4 said:
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The budgetkle4 said:
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.roserees64 said:
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.0 -
In my NHS workplace there is general apathy about politics, which perhaps in itself shows what a poor weapon the NHS is. We are making progress, though of course there are strains.MP_SE said:
Where I work (public sector) there is a lot of vocal support for the Tories and UKIP. Several people having openly stated they pray Labour do not win the GE. I despise discussing politics at work so try to avoid it where possible.NickPalmer said:
I agree that public sector professionals are the bedrock Labour vote, but the WWC vote is harder to pin down as their floating voters tend to be less engaged and decide later if at all.woody662 said:If I remember correctly, the Lib Dem poll ratings in 2010 which led to the spreads putting them at 80-90 seats was based on a young demographic which in the end failed to show up for polling day. Now the Lib Dems do not attract this vote, can we presume it has gone Labour/Green. I wonder how soft this is and whether Labour's vote will not live up to its poll rating.
Canvassing anecdote alert, found our strongest section of Labour vote at the weekend, all public sector professionals. The WWC seem to be melting away from Labour though.
The personal vote factor is pretty big in my patch - about a third of the voters spontaneously express a view on AS or me, and in the absence of clear national preferences it's often quoted as decisive. I assume the same sort of "politics as duel" scenario is being played out in the other 20 or so retread seats.
It is a Tory stronghold so may be different elsewhere in the country. Coming from the private sector where the industry I worked in was fiercely pro-Tory this experience has come as a big suprise.
I did see a kipper in full regalia in outpatients last week. A distinguished looking 60 something wearing a dark blazer, and striped tie in the kipper colours with matching yellow shirt. He had accessorised with a ukip lapel badge.
The Gujerati receptionist checked him in, the Portuguese Nurse called him through for the Greek Doctor to see. It was all very professional on both sides, but it did rather remind me of "the Life and Death of Colonel Blimp", but perhaps I am reading too much into a momentary encounter.0 -
It will get fawning coverage in the media no matter what, we can be sure of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechangerkle4 said:
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The budgetkle4 said:
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.roserees64 said:
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.0 -
It will be a big moment with wall to wall coverage going on for days and has to be watertight to be the gamechanger0
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He's not a sure thing by any means though of course - the omnishamble budget? Another of those might be gamechanging.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechangerkle4 said:
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The budgetkle4 said:
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.roserees64 said:
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
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Well that covers my EdMPM bets :PTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
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Does it win the election though0
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Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
In the managerial side up here in the North it's still very much left all the way.foxinsoxuk said:
In my NHS workplace there is general apathy about politics, which perhaps in itself shows what a poor weapon the NHS is. We are making progress, though of course there are strains.MP_SE said:
Where I work (public sector) there is a lot of vocal support for the Tories and UKIP. Several people having openly stated they pray Labour do not win the GE. I despise discussing politics at work so try to avoid it where possible.NickPalmer said:
I agree that public sector professionals are the bedrock Labour vote, but the WWC vote is harder to pin down as their floating voters tend to be less engaged and decide later if at all.woody662 said:If I remember correctly, the Lib Dem poll ratings in 2010 which led to the spreads putting them at 80-90 seats was based on a young demographic which in the end failed to show up for polling day. Now the Lib Dems do not attract this vote, can we presume it has gone Labour/Green. I wonder how soft this is and whether Labour's vote will not live up to its poll rating.
Canvassing anecdote alert, found our strongest section of Labour vote at the weekend, all public sector professionals. The WWC seem to be melting away from Labour though.
The personal vote factor is pretty big in my patch - about a third of the voters spontaneously express a view on AS or me, and in the absence of clear national preferences it's often quoted as decisive. I assume the same sort of "politics as duel" scenario is being played out in the other 20 or so retread seats.
It is a Tory stronghold so may be different elsewhere in the country. Coming from the private sector where the industry I worked in was fiercely pro-Tory this experience has come as a big suprise.
I did see a kipper in full regalia in outpatients last week. A distinguished looking 60 something wearing a dark blazer, and striped tie in the kipper colours with matching yellow shirt. He had accessorised with a ukip lapel badge.
The Gujerati receptionist checked him in, the Portuguese Nurse called him through for the Greek Doctor to see. It was all very professional on both sides, but it did rather remind me of "the Life and Death of Colonel Blimp", but perhaps I am reading too much into a momentary encounter.0 -
I suspect it reduces the number of Con to UKIP switchers particularly in the South.Pulpstar said:Does it win the election though
George's 2007 IHT policy really did change the political narrative.
It was a policy the activists could sell on the door step.0 -
Ofc they should, just put some higher bands on housesRobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
Suspect it's unlikely that you'll get a reasoned response to that post.Moses_ said:
What are your views on the mainly working class sport of fishing and having dragged the poor fish out of its natural environment, suffering through inability to work it's gills correctly, stressed and dazed with a barbed steel hook locked in its throat it's subsequently manhandled, hook ripped out and thrown back in to suffer a similar fate. All over again.roserees64 said:At least Cameron can indulge in his beloved hunting once again when he is no longer PM.
I was amused to see a Liberal posting as a Conservative from Yeovil on here.Fyshe could win Yeovil for the Tories.The posting which mentioned gay marriage made no sense in view of Laws being gay.
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
Yeah thats bollox of course just like your post on a different sport with same outcome. Keep in mind on both rarely to the captors take the captive home as food. The only difference is one is favoured more by your people so that's ok.
PS. Never really like fox hunting but I dislike selective laws even more.0 -
Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.0 -
The cynical voter may ask why it wasn't done this Parliament, given the promise in 2007. I guess it was before the crash etc. but still, it sounds similar to an old promise.TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect it reduces the number of Con to UKIP switchers.Pulpstar said:Does it win the election though
George's 2007 IHT policy really did change the political narrative.
It was a policy the activists could sell on the door step.0 -
I'm assuming there's going to be some Lib Dem goodies in the budget. Personal allowance increased to 12k or maybe VAT removed on sandals.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.0 -
Is it wrong of me to want Osborne to announce some sort of scheme for every man, woman, and child in the country which has the acronym OWL.
Suggestions on a postcard, please.0 -
PA to 12k would be good too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm assuming there's going to be some Lib Dem goodies in the budget. Personal allowance increased to 12k or maybe VAT removed on sandals.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
Pumps up house-price bubble, encourages elderly to bed-block the market by not downsizing.Pulpstar said:
Well that covers my EdMPM bets :PTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comraderogerh said:Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.0 -
What makes you say that? In the past the press have ignored the actual content and conducting real analysis in favour of wibbling on about pasties.Callum_Snr said:
It will get fawning coverage in the media no matter what, we can be sure of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechangerkle4 said:
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The budgetkle4 said:
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.roserees64 said:
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.0 -
If he were sensible he'd set the band at £900,000 or something, or at least below £1m so it somewhat nullifies the word "million".foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.0 -
It looks to me like that's for the manifesto, not the budget.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
Why you've said it yourself it doesn't raise much tax.foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.0 -
Yeah thats notable.Sean_F said:Easterross said:
Easterross • Posts: 1,776
7:10PM
Before people get carried away with some journalists and so called experts desperate wish for a Labour victory at any cost, as regulars say the trend is your friend.
Over the past 9 months
ICM has gone from Labour leads of 7 to Tory leads of 1 and 4
Populus has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and tied
Survation with the exception of January's Tory lead maintains Labour 4 to 6 ahead
ComRes has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
Opinium has gone from Labour leads of 6 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
YouGov has gone from Labour leads of 5 and 6 to Tory leads of between 1 and 4 in 6 out of the last 10 polls with 2 tied and 2 Labour leads
Ashcroft has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 9 to Tory leads of 2 to 4
IpsosMori has edged down from Labour leads of 3 to 1 with a couple of 3 point Tory leads at the end of last year.
TNS remains stuck on Labour leads of 7
The Ashcroft marginal polls which in some cases are now 9 months old showed Labour taking its 1st 19 Tory targets and in 10 of them with a notional lead of less than 10%
He then showed then taking the next 7 with notional leads in 5 of them of under 10%
He showed them taking more than another 13 and among that 13 were more Tory holds than losses.
So Ashcroft showed Labour winning no more than 40 seats before hitting the Tory firewall of holds. Those 40 seats are not consecutive because there are 13 Tory holds, starting with Pudsey at No 22.
So at best Labour MIGHT on a good night win as many seats from the Tories as it is expected to lose to the SNP. Given that half those potential 40 Labour gains were showing leads of under 10%, the chances are that Labour must realistically be looking at a net loss of seats, depending on how many it can win from the Liberals.
But, the frequency of Conservative leads is increasing. A Conservative lead is now as likely as a Labour one.
Budgets taken on major importance. If tories come through 5% up then could be the game changer
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I think Labour are looking at a maximum of 280 seats; the Tories a minimum of 270 seats.tyson said:From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.
The Lib Dems will be between 16 and 34 seats. The SNP between 32 and 48 seats.
I have no idea about UKIP.0 -
I agree, but "a tax cut for millionaires" is like the reduction from 50% to 45%, very bad politics 7 weeks before an election.Pulpstar said:
Why you've said it yourself it doesn't raise much tax.foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.
I don't think George is that stupid. I think he is lobbing a few red herrings about so that Ed gets the budget response all wrong.
More likely a tax cut on beer and whisky, and even petrol. Something that would wrongfoot Labour.0 -
It really wouldn't. Inheritance Tax is unpopular.foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.0 -
Neither did the 50p tax rate, that labour had in place for four to six weeks. But by lowering it to 45p labour presented it as a tax cut for millionaires, despite it been higher than the thirteen years they were in office.Pulpstar said:
Why you've said it yourself it doesn't raise much tax.foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.
The inheritance tax thing was a gold star because the thresholds hadnt keep in line with house price increases, making many people who wouldnt see themselves as rich bumping along at the rate. The major injustice has been undone though. To push up the thresholds now would not be a particularly wise act.
How about a tax break for companies that pay the living wage? Maybe upping the employee NI liabilities to encourage it.
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The obvious gambit to me is either to increase the basic allowance, or reduce employee's national insurance. Yougov suggests either would be very popular.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households0 -
How about a tax break for companies that pay the living wage? Maybe upping the employee NI liabilities threshold to encourage it?
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Interesting that a 'government source' calls the inheritance tax cut regressive. I wonder if we will see a Lib Dem policy leaked in the coming days that will be similarly welcome to its core vote while controversial elsewhere0
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I agreetyson said:From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.0 -
9-2 current odds.tyson said:
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comraderogerh said:Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
0 -
Poor odds.rogerh said:
9-2 current odds.tyson said:
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comraderogerh said:Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.0 -
I'm not sure. That's been happening (the basic allowance increase) all throughout this parliament, without much effect on the Tory vote share.Sean_F said:
The obvious gambit to me is either to increase the basic allowance, or reduce employee's national insurance. Yougov suggests either would be very popular.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
Besides which, for both theatrical and tactical reasons, Osborne will want a "big bang" announcement to capture the media narrative, and put Labour on the back foot.
It's his style.0 -
Agreed. Though if you do think the Tories will do well then, as has been the case for a while, just backing individual seats is great value. Their top 20 target seats have loads of 8/1 or longer available.Pulpstar said:
Poor odds.rogerh said:
9-2 current odds.tyson said:
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comraderogerh said:Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.0 -
A couple of questions I'm asking myself: who has leaked this proposal, and why?foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, but "a tax cut for millionaires" is like the reduction from 50% to 45%, very bad politics 7 weeks before an election.Pulpstar said:
Why you've said it yourself it doesn't raise much tax.foxinsoxuk said:
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.RobD said:
Not sure the LDs would agree to that!TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.
I don't think George is that stupid. I think he is lobbing a few red herrings about so that Ed gets the budget response all wrong.
More likely a tax cut on beer and whisky, and even petrol. Something that would wrongfoot Labour.
It could be the old paper from the Autumn, which the Lib Dems have leaked. Or it could be the Tories leaking it for the reasons you cite.
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SWINGBACKTASTIC! Labour 2% in front.
Shares in Tramadol soar!
Basiliscious!0 -
YouGov - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%0
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Tick. Tock.0
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Labour leads more exciting because they are getting rarer?compouter2 said:SWINGBACKTASTIC! Labour 2% in front.
Shares in Tramadol soar!
Basiliscious!
Saying that, I do see a bit of reverse-swingback:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf0 -
Calm down, dear.compouter2 said:SWINGBACKTASTIC! Labour 2% in front.
Shares in Tramadol soar!
Basiliscious!0 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 28s28 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
EICIPM. On a Monday too0 -
Anybody seen the latest May2015 tweet?
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/577595119085449216
It may not be entirely serious...0 -
After the GE I am certain that You Gov will conduct an enquiry as to why its polling is up and down like a tart's knickers.NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
Be happy if this poll gives you comfort.. it is about as wrong as all those with the Tories in the lead.0 -
Tories can lose North Warwickshire and get a majorityQuincel said:
Agreed. Though if you do think the Tories will do well then, as has been the case for a while, just backing individual seats is great value. Their top 20 target seats have loads of 8/1 or longer available.Pulpstar said:
Poor odds.rogerh said:
9-2 current odds.tyson said:
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comraderogerh said:Some predictions
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
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Bloody hell Lab at 35% with Green on 7% and UKIP on 13% :O0
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UKIP/Con at 46% looks low to Lab/Green/LD at 49%. Looks like a bit of sampling variation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
Still doesn't lead me to think anything other than the two main parties are at parity.0 -
I agree, LDs on 10% is plainly ludicrous...viewcode said:Anybody seen the latest May2015 tweet?
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/577595119085449216
It may not be entirely serious...0 -
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?0 -
LOL! You just made me spill my diet coke...:-)foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, LDs on 10% is plainly ludicrous...viewcode said:Anybody seen the latest May2015 tweet?
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/577595119085449216
It may not be entirely serious...
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Prince Charles has been enjoying a hackathon again.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, LDs on 10% is plainly ludicrous...viewcode said:Anybody seen the latest May2015 tweet?
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/577595119085449216
It may not be entirely serious...0 -
Stonch's.MikeK said:Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.0 -
LAB 35% strategy intact in all 3 polls that matter today
LARGER is Angus R0 -
Double criss-crossover with a double kitchen surge.RobD said:
Labour leads more exciting because they are getting rarer?compouter2 said:SWINGBACKTASTIC! Labour 2% in front.
Shares in Tramadol soar!
Basiliscious!
Saying that, I do see a bit of reverse-swingback:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf0 -
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
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Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.0
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I still think the Conservatives are ahead by 0.5% or so maybe.0
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He had failed on much of what he promised, for sure. I don't like that, but the opposition can't criticise the amount of borrowing as they would have borrowed about the same, so they can only say they would have spent better, which is harder to make stick given governments of any colour are pretty crappy when it comes to spending. One reason I foresee not so much of an impact from the budget - although we know there will be gimmicks, I think positive or negative effects from them will not be as great as sometimes has happened these past 5 years.roserees64 said:Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country..
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Swingforward0
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I have a May 11th deadline (yes, really!) and will not be able to make it.Pulpstar said:
Stonch's.MikeK said:Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
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We should definitely get details of this fixed soonish, so we can start getting a rough feel for numbers. Personally am looking forward to it hugely, if it can go ahead.Pulpstar said:
Stonch's.MikeK said:Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.0 -
Level on Mondays.Pulpstar said:I still think the Conservatives are ahead by 0.5% or so maybe.
Looks like UNCROSSOVER to me
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Have you seen it? Don't be put off by a summary of the plot, it completely transcends that. It's a must-see IMO - and it's absolutely hilarious as well, which is astonishing given the subject-matter.Flightpath said:It may well be a great film, I do not for a moment doubt that. But its plot - grouchy selfish carer, nurse, teacher, nanny, housekeeper, prospective son/daughter-in-law, weirdo in off the street; odd couples etc who finds, redeems him/herself and transforms everyone else's lives - is hardly original
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Anyone going tomorrow, can they check out what the internet provision is like in the Shooting Star is like please.
Yours truly will be editing PB on General Election night, and well, I'm going to need a decent internet connection.0 -
Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.0
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Yes a decent internet connection is a must !TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone going tomorrow, can they check out what the internet provision is like in the Shooting Star is like please.
Yours truly will be editing PB on General Election night, and well, I'm going to need a decent internet connection.0 -
And the o2 and Three mobile coverage is like as well (Has to be 4G)Pulpstar said:
Yes a decent internet connection is a must !TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone going tomorrow, can they check out what the internet provision is like in the Shooting Star is like please.
Yours truly will be editing PB on General Election night, and well, I'm going to need a decent internet connection.0 -
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..Grandiose said:
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...0 -
I am sorely tempted, having booked Friday 8th off. Is it an all nighter? Or will accommodation be required?Pulpstar said:
Stonch's.MikeK said:Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.0 -
Why the bad mood?SquareRoot said:
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..Grandiose said:
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
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Internal splits in Lib Dems fester away.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/source-close-to-nick-clegg-needs-to-stop-now-45035.html
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No, both sides here are putting patterns in stuff that doesn't exist. Four Labour leads, Four Tory leads in a row. I honestly think the Conservatives are an inch ahead though. But it is just an inch.bigjohnowls said:
Level on Mondays.Pulpstar said:I still think the Conservatives are ahead by 0.5% or so maybe.
Looks like UNCROSSOVER to me0 -
Well I'm sincerely hoping it'll be an all nighter. Not planning on booking accomodation.foxinsoxuk said:
I am sorely tempted, having booked Friday 8th off. Is it an all nighter? Or will accommodation be required?Pulpstar said:
Stonch's.MikeK said:Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.0 -
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.0 -
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.bigjohnowls said:
Why the bad mood?SquareRoot said:
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..Grandiose said:
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.0 -
I'd have thought Clegg or Clegg's people attacking an inevitable leadership candidate post May would be very good for that candidate. Even those who like and/or are closely aligned with Clegg's views and politics would wish to avoid being seen as the continuity candidate, as the party's fortunes demand a transformative leader (or one who can attempt to present themselves as such).TCPoliticalBetting said:Internal splits in Lib Dems fester away.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/source-close-to-nick-clegg-needs-to-stop-now-45035.html
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How dare he not clear the mess left to him quickly enough. A disgrace. An outrage.roserees64 said:Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.
What was it the PM said about Miliband:
"arsonist who goes around setting fire after fire then complains that the fire brigade aren't putting the fires out fast enough"0 -
Farron is going to romp home.kle4 said:
I'd have thought Clegg or Clegg's people attacking an inevitable leadership candidate post May would be very good for that candidate. Even those who like and/or are closely aligned with Clegg's views and politics would wish to avoid being seen as the continuity candidate, as the party's fortunes demand a transformative leader (or one who can attempt to present themselves as such).TCPoliticalBetting said:Internal splits in Lib Dems fester away.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/source-close-to-nick-clegg-needs-to-stop-now-45035.html0 -
So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?hunchman said:Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.
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Oh right glad your not in a bad moodSquareRoot said:
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.bigjohnowls said:
Why the bad mood?SquareRoot said:
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..Grandiose said:
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.0 -
Other things:Pulpstar said:The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
1) How much of an impact will individual registration have?
2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
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I.m not, I am listening to one of the greatest tenors I have ever heard. Andrea Bocelli.. an absolute master.bigjohnowls said:
Oh right glad your not in a bad moodSquareRoot said:
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.bigjohnowls said:
Why the bad mood?SquareRoot said:
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..Grandiose said:
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.0 -
The other factor in England will be how the LDs break for the other parties. Leeds NW is an interesting one. Apparently one of the highest student votes, so surely going to be a big drop, but to whom? And have the Tories finally chosen a candidate?Pulpstar said:The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.0 -
I recall Mitch McConnell's opponent in Kentucky used the same type of line, must be part of the political lexicon I guess.notme said:
What was it the PM said about Miliband:roserees64 said:Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.
"arsonist who goes around setting fire after fire then complains that the fire brigade aren't putting the fires out fast enough"
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I think individual registration will impact LAB adversely most due to its disproportionate age distribution.viewcode said:
Other things:Pulpstar said:The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
1) How much of an impact will individual registration have?
2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
Tis a serious threat to EICIPM
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The pub tmrw night isn't the same one as election night is it?0
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1) Not that much imo - might make a bit of difference in big University seats but I reckon the ones not registered wouldn't have voted previously. Could hurt the Greens the most as they are strong in 18-24 age group.viewcode said:
Other things:Pulpstar said:The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
1) How much of an impact will individual registration have?
2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
2) Well they help Labour, but Labour have lost ~ 1 - 1.5% of the vote and 4-7% of the seats in Scotland so that balances the skew back to more or less zero. Tory 1st time incumbency helps a bit too. Predicting seats on vote share is REALLY hard this time round - particularly in England (No 84% Yes correlation to go off here) (Scotland is actually easier !)0 -
Mmmm, complacent fatalism always gets my vote.NickPalmer said:Tick. Tock.
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I believe that's right - the election-night gig is in Earl's Court, IIRC.isam said:The pub tmrw night isn't the same one as election night is it?
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Go through all of the alternative media on this like I did for a fortnight and come to your own conclusions. The msm with d notices and the like are effectively not a free press any longer sadly.dugarbandier said:
So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?hunchman said:Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.
0
