Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates.
Comments
Oh I see it now: 8%. LOL
The most likely thing to effect votes is personal experience, because it's visceral, someone getting a bad experience in hospital, kids have good or bad experiences at school, being out of work or having got a job recently.
And what peple say will decide their vote does not always match what will decide their vote.
I think many will never decide. This is a further pointer to a low turnout.
Apologies for hitting "off topic"!
I find listening to lefties is reinforcing, though. So it doesn't work completely.
Amazing how there's so much more interest in some BBC employee than what is going on in Russia. The President of the world's largest nation state with thousands of nuclear weapons seems to have disappeared. Perhaps it's nothing. Maybe he has some minor pinko illness that would ruin his macho reputation if it were to be made public. All very odd though. Even our own election seems a little trifling by comparison.
If you ever feel the urge to run a failed Out campaign in an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, here’s how to do it
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/03/how-to-lose-an-eu-referendum-by-nigel-farage.html
http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-31894388
What has changed I think is the likes of the Times used to run a full time investigation team, which was making news rather than reporting it. They don't do that now, so like most other outlets they are either dependent on leaks or number crunching public data sources, which rarely lead to explosive stories i.e increasingly the print media is reactive, rather than pro-active.
Even the Telegraph scope on Straw / Rifkind was really small beer..not like the much more involved investigations the Times and the NOTW used to run.
The Range Rover? Nah the 65 plate Discovery isnt ours, that's the nany's we use the small Corsa.
Any 'research' that excludes the influence of the TV, Radio and Internet News and political coverage outside the Debates, PPB's and social media is deeply flawed as this following article demonstrates:
Nearly twice as many tune in to TV for news than read newspapers, with BBC rated most important source
Of those surveyed, 78 per cent said they used TV as a source of news, compared to 40 per cent using newspapers, 35 per cent radio and 32 per cent the internet.
The top three individual news sources were all TV channels. BBC One led the way, with 57 per cent using it for news. A third of respondents used ITV/UTV/STV, while 17 per cent used BBC News 24.
The top website was also the BBC, with 16 per cent using it. The Sun was the most used newspaper (10 per cent), while BBC Radio 2 was the most used radio station (8 per cent).
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/nearly-twice-many-tune-tv-news-read-newspapers-bbc-rated-most-important-source
Given the BBC should clearly be a separate item on its own in any such research and given the disregard for TV, Radio and Internet news sources generally I would suggest that survey is pretty much worthless
Do I hear the sound of whistling to keep up spirits?
My distate on the proceedings stems from a longstanding opinion that justice in the UK depends on who you know and the size of lawyer you can hire, and the unwritten rule is SLEBS CAN DO WHAT THEY LIKE. The commentariat were rapidly deployed to support Clarkson (Pearson's Telegraph article was frankly ludicrous) and the entire process is wearily depressing. If there weren't independent witnesses to the event, I'd expect Tymon to be prosecuted for hurting Clarkson's fist with his nose.
Clarkson is a human being. He has the right to critically examine the evidence against him and confront his accuser. Tymon is a human being. He has the right to not be assaulted as he goes about his work. Both have the right to be heard by independent judges in a timely fashion and have their cases considered calmly and soberly.
But this is Britain. And we don't actually do that...:-(
[1] Although I thought his brief talk show stint was boring, to be honest
But the really strange thing is how little these ratings change from week one when 500 might have voted till week twenty when that number might have reached 400,000. This is a self selecting sample and often it'll start being released in one country and then work its way around the world.
Why we should all be so consistent in our tastes is a complete mystery
So about five, then
If 500 people rate it as 7.6, that will influence the views of no 501
The only thing left to do is to read the twitterverse for ever more amusing explanations. For me the best so far is the picture from Weekend at Bernies with Putin's face photoshopped onto Bernie's.
Thank you for drawing my attention to the the article in the Telegraph by Alison Pearson "I like Clarkson. He's a good egg". I laughed out loud! Not since Paula Yates breathless hagiography to Michael Hutchence have I read such vacuous nonsense
Dan Hannan was singing its praises on Twitter...
As the article I linked below indicates the newspapers come well behind the BBC and other TV stations in their influence regarding current affairs. Combine that with Radio and Internet sources and the fact that increasing numbers of the newspaper web sites are going behind paywalls and its not hard to envisage that the newspapers will not control the narrative at all soon in my opinion
Furthermore, when 81% had supposedly made their mind up in 1992 weren't the polls further out from the actual result than in the two more recent elections?
As for the forensic demolitions, I'll save that for sources other than cheap propaganda sites which aren't worth the bother.
Win a £10k second kitchen... just like Ed’s
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sunperks/6369916/Win-a-second-kitchen-just-like-Eds.html?CMP=spklr-156736433-Editorial-TWITTER-TheSunNewspaper-20150315-News
It's really rare tht you get asked anything substantive - what exactly will you do about the housing shortage, why is the deficit still there, how will you pay for the extra nurses? Maybe 1% of conversations.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/photography-blog/2015/mar/03/weasel-riding-a-woodpecker-the-five-best-weaselpecker-memes
F1: post-race analysis up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/australia-post-race-analysis.html
http://beautyeditor.ca/2014/02/21/vladimir-putin-before-and-after
Playboy Putin
Or, being the Clintons, this could be Bill knowing where and what all the skeletons are and trying to lance the scandals before they inevitably hit the press.
http://nypost.com/2015/03/14/obama-adviser-behind-leak-of-hillary-clintons-e-mail-scandal/
http://www.channel4.com/news/nick-clegg-liberal-democrat-spring-conference-speech
Which is fortunate for the Libdems seeing as both the SNP and UKIP have ruled out formal coalitions with anybody........
Bollocks.
'Unnamed' bosses. More lazy journalism from the industrial phone hackers at The Mirror.
Feeble by all concerned.
Exclusive: Green Party cancels black tie fundraiser following members’ revolt
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/03/green-party-cancel-lavish-fundraiser-after-backlash-from-members/
Peapod Wine anyone?
Why should this odious little twerp presume to offer to govern us?
Has anyone actually voted for him? What on earth is going on?
Why Ed Milliband? Everything and anything I know says otherwise.
There are no men that like Ed. The concept that there might be women that like him is risible. No-one respects his views, no-one has ever been impressed by anything he's ever done. Ed is the epitome of failure.
In short, bye-bye Ed.
Ah, well, we are where we are. I set out nine renegotiation goals here; Business for Britain proposed ten slightly different ones here. But the Government isn’t interested in pursuing these goals. Instead, we’ll be voting on whether to remain in the EU on the present terms. Oh, sure, there’ll be a song and dance about the talks. Tame pundits will be lined up to aver that there was hard pounding. EU leaders will be wheeled out to complain theatrically that the British got their way. But, in the end, there is only one test that counts. Will there be there a new Intergovernmental Conference and a new treaty? Without them, it will be impossible to claim that there has been any substantive reform.
Most British people, if the polls are to be believed, want a relationship with the EU based on economic co-operation rather than political integration. It’s now clear that such a deal isn’t being sought through renegotiation. It can still be secured, but now only from the outside, in the manner of Switzerland or Guernsey.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/02/daniel-hannan-mep-camerons-coming-eu-renegotiation-will-alter-nothing.html
Personally I think he's waiting to see what going to happen in the next few months (like a number of Tories) before deciding his future.
Are Manor serious about taking part or did they just turn up to collect last years prize money and will not disband?
#COYS
https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/577163164237864960
"Because we don't like to different from the mean.
If 500 people rate it as 7.6, that will influence the views of no 501"
I take your point but film goers have no need to score the films. It's not like politics where people might have a 'team'. I'm quite sure they make independent judgements. Why shouldn't they? What's interesting is that 500 is nearly always precisely representative of 500,000.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2995335/Vladimir-Putin-neutralised-stealthy-coup-rumours-health-continue-flourish.html
While he could be either (a) mistaken, or (b) lying, I think it's very unlikely.
"Exclusive: Green Party cancels black tie fundraiser following members’ revolt"
I love that story. My girlfriend of the time used to work for Shelter. Their ad agency organized a £200 a ticket black tie event on a Thames riverboat. Peter Cook and Dudley Moore were there as were all the glitterati in London at the time. The workers at Shelter found it completely inappropriate and were really pissed off
Just as the evening was getting into full flow the team leader went onto the stage lifted the mike and said;
"Ladies and gentlemen. I'd like to propose a toast to the homeless without which none of this would have been possible"
Great photo at the top of the article.
I could be wrong (cf the race), but I'd be surprised.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring
Thanks for that. Very interesting. A bit like the 23 people in a room having a 50% chance of having the same birthdate. Hard to get your head round and hard to test
Is Falseflag about in order to explain the Neo Con plot that is undoubtably behind the mystery?
So, when the *exclusive 70% off special offer* signage says "limited to 3 per customer", it' not that they're trying to prevent a stampede, it's because research says you're more likely to pick up three.
We're funny monkeys, us
You know what: those black tie events are wonderful opportunities to take tens (or hundreds) of thousands of pounds off hedge fund managers and give them to good causes.
Basically: it enables John Jones who runs Macro Bond Leveraged Fund and earns $12m a year to hang out with some famous people like Marcus Mumford or whoever and feel important. And the charity makes good money.
Not a clue. I needed Google for that one. But apart from that your point is utterly sound.
Not hard to see where this is going to go.....
Possibly the most important stat that has been posted here for a while.