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YouGov Times in Scoltand:
Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1
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The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.
Not sure that will be on Ed Miliband's normally extensive reading list this summer.
Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
Angus
and
Banff & Buchan
"Or a Tory surge"
God loves an optimist.
(but the bookies prefer idiots)
I'm just surprised there is a Labour Council in Somerset in the first place.
1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.
I think 1) is a more reasonable hope than 2), myself.
Scottish Labour have neither of these things.
A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/
We wonder how many people are aware that this is still going on? http://fb.me/1XREP7L4U
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There's also a survation Scotland poll out in the next fortnight
Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.
Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
A model based on assigning IndyRef Yes to SNP/Green candidates on a 1-to-1 basis.
It started off as a joke but the Ashcroft polling has pretty much backed it up given a fairly wide standard deviation..
For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
Ban the flag from what?
So the story is not true?
If the council had a vote then there would be minutes.
Radstock's a tough old mining town.
"The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675
It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
of this was in the 11 seats they won.
40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31859931
Well its no surprise to anyone with sense that industrial scale child rape was happening on the Sheffield side of the M1 as well as the Rotherham side.
Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.
Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???
Basil back in bed.
So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls
Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?
26% approval really does seem extraordinarily poor considering Murphy should still be in his "honeymoon".
Labour set to go lower than a snake's belly.
A) Small electorate
The Swing the SNP are getting is certainly proportional rather than Uniform.
Is 'shellacking the correct technical term?
LOL
http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table
Betfair Lab most seats still over 3 though....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11692885
There's also a very real possibility of his 26% including a statistically significant "Irony Approval".
If I lived in a different seat with a different Labour candidate I could see myself voting Labour as a Unionist tactical vote. I would vote for Murphy for example. I would vote for Danny Alexander in a heartbeat but Labour will pay a price for having put up with so many completely useless Trade Union has beens and never was's in Scotland. They are distinctly unattractive to a Unionist like myself and the dozen or so across Scotland who think similarly.
Scottish LibDem MPs getting to the point where they don't need special pleading - they need special mathematics. Also known as magic.
I think you meant SNP on 57?
57:2:0:0 would be the funniest result of all time..... Now SLAB, about those panda gags. TIme to turn them back onto you. SLAB less seats than Loch Ness Monsters - at least there might be one of them...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31846021
Jeez..
But with the plods it seems that the scum rather than the cream rise to the top.