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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Scotland polls see Labour fail to improve

SystemSystem Posts: 12,561
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Scotland polls see Labour fail to improve

YouGov Times in Scoltand:
Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    First!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Second kitchen!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Labour 3rd in Scotland?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I didn't realise we had moved to the other kitchen thread
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Swing isn't uniform in Scotland though, the Nats are getting it most where they need it most.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    edited March 2015
    "The NHS nearly killed me" - Exclusive extracts from Nigel Farage's new autobiography (tomorrow's Telegraph).

    Not sure that will be on Ed Miliband's normally extensive reading list this summer.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Justine will be touring Glasgow with an Elvis impersonator shortly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/576144795313283072
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    edited March 2015
    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited March 2015
    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    Angus
    and
    Banff & Buchan
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.
    I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    "Or a Tory surge"

    God loves an optimist.
    (but the bookies prefer idiots)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    MikeK said:

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

    I'm just surprised there is a Labour Council in Somerset in the first place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles
    "Or a Tory surge"

    God loves an optimist.
    (but the bookies prefer idiots)

    "Tory surge" is definitely tongue in cheek!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    Angus
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    SMAPS?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "The NHS nearly killed me" - Exclusive extracts from Nigel Farage's new autobiography (tomorrow's Telegraph).

    Not sure that will be on Ed Miliband's normally extensive reading list this summer.

    I expect that he will have plenty of reading time!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.

    I think 1) is a more reasonable hope than 2), myself.

    Scottish Labour have neither of these things.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    MikeK said:

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

    A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP Caerphilly ‏@UKIPCaerphilly 16m16 minutes ago
    We wonder how many people are aware that this is still going on? http://fb.me/1XREP7L4U

    Brussels offers UK firms £1,000 cash 'bribes' to hire foreign workers

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2379477/Brussels-offers-UK-firms-1-000-cash-bribes-hire-foreign-workers.html#ixzz3UDGD0jBB
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    edited March 2015
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.
    I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.
    I'm hopeful we'll see the Ipsos Mori Scotland poll in the next week or so.

    There's also a survation Scotland poll out in the next fortnight
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    Mirror reporting Clarkson reported himself to the BBC.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,856
    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

    Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

    Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bravo to the Star for their Spoonerist headline tonight.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    Angus
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    SMAPS?
    Simplistic Moron Analysis Predictions for Scotland

    A model based on assigning IndyRef Yes to SNP/Green candidates on a 1-to-1 basis.

    It started off as a joke but the Ashcroft polling has pretty much backed it up given a fairly wide standard deviation..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    We'll I'm hoping that SMAPS will become the ARSE of the North! ;):D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.


    .
    For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

    For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

    Ban the flag from what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    edited March 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mirror reporting Clarkson reported himself to the BBC.

    But how dare the BBC even think about acting on that in any way, lefty swine!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    another_richard said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

    Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

    Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
    If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015
    A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

    So the story is not true?

    If the council had a vote then there would be minutes.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

    — John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015
    A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

    Radstock's a tough old mining town.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    edited March 2015
    foxinsoxuk said:

    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    SNIP

    A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/
    So the story is not true?

    If the council had a vote then there would be minutes.

    Well, the report only mentions a vote on buying a flag. No idea what happened before.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The DUP getting carried away a bit?

    "The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.


    .
    For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

    For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
    In terms of the budget, Osborne also can't do a "owls for all" style Brown give-away, because there isn't any money and it would blow his whole steady as she goes narrative out the water....I think what we will get is some populist stuff and in the small print all the massive cuts / tax rises required and it will all be Wigan Pier stuff again....which I think most people have made their mind up on that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.


    .
    For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

    For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
    For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    If you were up in Scotland, why wouldn't you vote SNP - you get to have alot more power that way than a lobby fodder Labour MP. If I was in a Lab/SNP contest seat would be a very easy choice to make.
  • MikeGreeneMikeGreene Posts: 28
    Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
    It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
    One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
    Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
    of this was in the 11 seats they won.
    40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
    OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
    For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.
    Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited March 2015
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now 5 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    YouGov - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now 5 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

    Gold standard.....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Outliers = only time for red leads these days!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,856
    Bloody hell ANOTHER story about the South Yorkshire plods and at third position on the BBC newspage:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31859931

    Well its no surprise to anyone with sense that industrial scale child rape was happening on the Sheffield side of the M1 as well as the Rotherham side.

    Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

    Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Artist said:

    The DUP getting carried away a bit?

    "The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675

    And that the Conservatives would scrap the bedroom tax. Sound like negotiating start points to me rather than final red lines.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tissues share prices nudge up. Keyboard cleaning vacancies begin to rise.

    Basil back in bed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    compouter2 said:

    Tissues share prices nudge up. Keyboard cleaning vacancies begin to rise.

    Basil back in bed.

    http://pinkbluelovescute.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Squirrel-has-a-bed-in-the-car.-What.jpeg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.


    .
    For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

    For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
    For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.
    Point taken. I have trouble believing Cameron could come close to replicating that, I'd imagine it's more a case of him having less horrible ratings than Ed M than actually having good ratings, which must surely blunt the effect of having that lead, but hope springs eternal for his team, not without some precedent I guess.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
    So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

    Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited March 2015
    Is that the first time ever (well since 2010, etc..) that the Tories have had a lead with YouGov on a Thursday? :open_mouth:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2015
    Are Jim Murphy's approval ratings in Scotland better than Miliband's are in the UK as a whole?

    26% approval really does seem extraordinarily poor considering Murphy should still be in his "honeymoon".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.
    Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats
    Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    Perhaps better expressed as Jim Murphy isn't turning out to be the great hope that Jim Murphy was hoping to be.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    32!!!

    Labour set to go lower than a snake's belly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    chestnut said:

    32!!!

    Labour set to go lower than a snake's belly.

    They have been as low as 31% I believe in recent days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
    So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

    Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?

    In fairness, even with the Scottish troubles there is a chance 1% is sufficient for Labour (though probably not), whereas 1% for the Tories it is almost certainly not sufficient.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MikeGreene said:

    Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
    It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
    One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
    Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
    of this was in the 11 seats they won.
    40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
    OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
    For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......

    The can retqin Shetland & Orkney as
    A) Small electorate
    B) Massive personal vote that won't be picked up in national poles.

    The Swing the SNP are getting is certainly proportional rather than Uniform.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

    UKIP breaks out of the 15% mould. :D
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Meanwhile, ELBOW crossover now seems pretty much nailed on. Labour would probably need to have 3/4-point leads in all remaining polls or something to avoid it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    kle4 said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

    The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

    1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
    2) the budget may change the weather.


    .
    For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

    For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.
    For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.
    Point taken. I have trouble believing Cameron could come close to replicating that, I'd imagine it's more a case of him having less horrible ratings than Ed M than actually having good ratings, which must surely blunt the effect of having that lead, but hope springs eternal for his team, not without some precedent I guess.
    To be clear, I see this election as being on a complete knife edge in seat counts. I think it rather more likely that we'll have a Labour Prime Minister in May than another five years of David Cameron. But it's all to play for, it seems.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    antifrank said:

    another_richard said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

    Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

    Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
    If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.
    Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.
    Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats
    Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?
    The oddest one is Dumfries & Galloway -- one of the most anti-independence seats in the country (and also was one of the most anti-devolution in the 1997 referendum) yet was held by the SNP in the fairly recent past...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland.


    Is 'shellacking the correct technical term?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    "SK Tremayne is a pen name for a best-selling author who wishes to stay anonymous"

    ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    "SK Tremayne is a pen name for a best-selling author who wishes to stay anonymous."

    LOL
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Carnyx said:

    antifrank said:

    another_richard said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

    Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

    Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
    If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.
    Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.
    The SNP were polling well at the end of September and the beginning of October. But they soared at the end of October:

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,293
    The SNP are going to romp home on these figures. Might be some interesting results for the Tories if they can hold up at 18 points. Mundell may hold on relatively easily if they do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited March 2015
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    Congrats. :smiley:

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    kle4 said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
    So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

    Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?

    In fairness, even with the Scottish troubles there is a chance 1% is sufficient for Labour (though probably not), whereas 1% for the Tories it is almost certainly not sufficient.
    Fair comment.

    Betfair Lab most seats still over 3 though....
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Artist said:

    The DUP getting carried away a bit?

    "The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675

    Hasn't Northern Ireland had by far the largest proportionate share of EU money within the UK? Voters there need to wake up about what their "traditional" voting seems to be doing for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    SimonStClare said:

    Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland.


    Is 'shellacking the correct technical term?

    Who, What, Why: What is a 'shellacking'?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11692885
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,457
    another_richard said:

    Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

    Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

    Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    antifrank said:

    Carnyx said:

    antifrank said:

    another_richard said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

    Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

    Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".
    If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.
    Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.
    The SNP were polling well at the end of September and the beginning of October. But they soared at the end of October:

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table
    Many thanks - so they did.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    It was either shellacking or Labour on course for a pounding a dockside hooker experiences when the fleet is in.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,856
    Pulpstar said:

    If you were up in Scotland, why wouldn't you vote SNP - you get to have alot more power that way than a lobby fodder Labour MP. If I was in a Lab/SNP contest seat would be a very easy choice to make.

    Exactly.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    Congratulations and good luck on the roller coaster to celluloid completion.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Are Jim Murphy's approval ratings in Scotland better than Miliband's are in the UK as a whole?

    26% approval really does seem extraordinarily poor considering Murphy should still be in his "honeymoon".

    He never had a honeymoon period. Possibly just the opposite.

    There's also a very real possibility of his 26% including a statistically significant "Irony Approval".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,778
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.
    I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.
    I am not sure the DavidLs are a particularly meaningful subset of Scottish opinion. But FWIW I have decided that I cannot bring myself to vote for Jim McGovern in Dundee West. Firstly, I have no respect for the man and secondly I have no interest in reducing his margin of defeat to 9,999.

    If I lived in a different seat with a different Labour candidate I could see myself voting Labour as a Unionist tactical vote. I would vote for Murphy for example. I would vote for Danny Alexander in a heartbeat but Labour will pay a price for having put up with so many completely useless Trade Union has beens and never was's in Scotland. They are distinctly unattractive to a Unionist like myself and the dozen or so across Scotland who think similarly.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,856
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Perth & North Perthshire
    and
    Banff & Buchan

    Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.
    SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.
    Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.
    Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats
    Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?
    The oddest one is Dumfries & Galloway -- one of the most anti-independence seats in the country (and also was one of the most anti-devolution in the 1997 referendum) yet was held by the SNP in the fairly recent past...
    Much of the SNP vote there in yesteryear and the Labour vote there in 2005 and 2010 was of the anti-Conservative variety.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.

    Did he have 2 kitchens as well?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    MikeGreene said:

    Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
    It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
    One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
    Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
    of this was in the 11 seats they won.
    40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
    OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
    For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......

    Nicely calculated. You won't be getting a Xmas card from OGH though.

    Scottish LibDem MPs getting to the point where they don't need special pleading - they need special mathematics. Also known as magic.

    I think you meant SNP on 57?

    57:2:0:0 would be the funniest result of all time..... Now SLAB, about those panda gags. TIme to turn them back onto you. SLAB less seats than Loch Ness Monsters - at least there might be one of them...

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @DavidL what would you do if you lived in one of the Edinburgh constituencies?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    glw said:

    another_richard said:

    Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

    Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

    Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.
    The policing reform in Scotland has been hugely controversial. I am not sure it has been a good thing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.

    Losing Scotland or having 12 years as Prime Minister? ;)

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,293
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    Congratulations! Still have yet to read it, I'll pick up the kindle edition at some point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,669
    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

    The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

    Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.
    I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.
    I am not sure the DavidLs are a particularly meaningful subset of Scottish opinion. But FWIW I have decided that I cannot bring myself to vote for Jim McGovern in Dundee West. Firstly, I have no respect for the man and secondly I have no interest in reducing his margin of defeat to 9,999.

    If I lived in a different seat with a different Labour candidate I could see myself voting Labour as a Unionist tactical vote. I would vote for Murphy for example. I would vote for Danny Alexander in a heartbeat but Labour will pay a price for having put up with so many completely useless Trade Union has beens and never was's in Scotland. They are distinctly unattractive to a Unionist like myself and the dozen or so across Scotland who think similarly.
    You were on the money during the Indyref, something that earned the respect of many PBers.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Anna Soubry seems to be on Question Time every few weeks. Natalie Bennett also on.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    We're probably looking at another independence vote in the next parliament.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    Islamic State 'using chlorine gas' in roadside bombs

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31846021

    Jeez..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,856
    glw said:

    another_richard said:

    Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

    Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

    Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.
    It sounds good in theory.

    But with the plods it seems that the scum rather than the cream rise to the top.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    SeanT said:

    My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

    http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

    For shame.

    Heh.

    Congrats. Just be psychologically prepared for them to turn it into a musical...

  • glwglw Posts: 10,457
    Alistair said:

    The policing reform in Scotland has been hugely controversial. I am not sure it has been a good thing.

    Maybe so, but I think we've reached the point where we need a similar scale of reform in England.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    Jonathan said:

    We're probably looking at another independence vote in the next parliament.

    Seems impossible to avoid. I just hope the Unionists remain up for the fight and think on situations like the PQ in Canada which might give some hope, as I've had all the fight beaten of me and have pretty much given up on it given the low odds of a new settlement that will please enough people.
This discussion has been closed.