politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Scotland polls see Labour fail to improve

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Scotland polls see Labour fail to improve

YouGov Times in Scoltand:
Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1

Read the full story here

RobD

First!

foxinsoxuk

Second kitchen!

Scrapheap_as_was

Labour 3rd in Scotland?

Scott_P

I didn't realise we had moved to the other kitchen thread

Pulpstar

Swing isn't uniform in Scotland though, the Nats are getting it most where they need it most.

AlastairMeeks

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

FrancisUrquhart

"The NHS nearly killed me" - Exclusive extracts from Nigel Farage's new autobiography (tomorrow's Telegraph).

Not sure that will be on Ed Miliband's normally extensive reading list this summer.

Scrapheap_as_was

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Justine will be touring Glasgow with an Elvis impersonator shortly.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/576144795313283072

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.

kle4

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

MikeK

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

Alistair

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
Angus
and
Banff & Buchan

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.

I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.

Smarmeron

@TheScreamingEagles
"Or a Tory surge"

God loves an optimist.
(but the bookies prefer idiots)

RobD

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

kle4

MikeK said:

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

I'm just surprised there is a Labour Council in Somerset in the first place.

RobD

Smarmeron said:

@TheScreamingEagles
"Or a Tory surge"

God loves an optimist.
(but the bookies prefer idiots)

"Tory surge" is definitely tongue in cheek!!

kle4

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
Angus
and
Banff & Buchan

SMAPS?

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

"The NHS nearly killed me" - Exclusive extracts from Nigel Farage's new autobiography (tomorrow's Telegraph).

Not sure that will be on Ed Miliband's normally extensive reading list this summer.

I expect that he will have plenty of reading time!

AlastairMeeks

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.

I think 1) is a more reasonable hope than 2), myself.

Scottish Labour have neither of these things.

Alistair

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

RobD

MikeK said:

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

MikeK

UKIP Caerphilly ‏@UKIPCaerphilly 16m16 minutes ago
We wonder how many people are aware that this is still going on? http://fb.me/1XREP7L4U

Brussels offers UK firms £1,000 cash 'bribes' to hire foreign workers

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2379477/Brussels-offers-UK-firms-1-000-cash-bribes-hire-foreign-workers.html#ixzz3UDGD0jBB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.

I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.

I'm hopeful we'll see the Ipsos Mori Scotland poll in the next week or so.

There's also a survation Scotland poll out in the next fortnight

FrancisUrquhart

Mirror reporting Clarkson reported himself to the BBC.

another_richard

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".

AlastairMeeks

Bravo to the Star for their Spoonerist headline tonight.

Alistair

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 6 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
Angus
and
Banff & Buchan

SMAPS?

Simplistic Moron Analysis Predictions for Scotland

A model based on assigning IndyRef Yes to SNP/Green candidates on a 1-to-1 basis.

It started off as a joke but the Ashcroft polling has pretty much backed it up given a fairly wide standard deviation..

RobD

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

We'll I'm hoping that SMAPS will become the ARSE of the North!

kle4

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.


.

For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.

saddened

MikeK said:

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

Ban the flag from what?

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mirror reporting Clarkson reported himself to the BBC.

But how dare the BBC even think about acting on that in any way, lefty swine!

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.

AlastairMeeks

another_richard said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".

If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.

foxinsoxuk

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

So the story is not true?

If the council had a vote then there would be minutes.

TheWatcher

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Anti English Labour Party pic.twitter.com/UIRQEjrBzs

— John Slade (@2purplebricks) March 12, 2015

A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

Radstock's a tough old mining town.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

SNIP

A source: http://www.itv.com/news/west/story/2013-05-18/radstock-flag-protest/

So the story is not true?

If the council had a vote then there would be minutes.

Well, the report only mentions a vote on buying a flag. No idea what happened before.

Artist

The DUP getting carried away a bit?

"The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.


.

For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.

In terms of the budget, Osborne also can't do a "owls for all" style Brown give-away, because there isn't any money and it would blow his whole steady as she goes narrative out the water....I think what we will get is some populist stuff and in the small print all the massive cuts / tax rises required and it will all be Wigan Pier stuff again....which I think most people have made their mind up on that.

AlastairMeeks

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.


.

For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.

For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.

Pulpstar

If you were up in Scotland, why wouldn't you vote SNP - you get to have alot more power that way than a lobby fodder Labour MP. If I was in a Lab/SNP contest seat would be a very easy choice to make.

MikeGreene

Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
of this was in the 11 seats they won.
40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.

Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats

GIN1138

Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

chestnut

CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

TheScreamingEagles

YouGov - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

RobD

GIN1138 said:

Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

Gold standard.....

Scrapheap_as_was

Outliers = only time for red leads these days!

another_richard

Bloody hell ANOTHER story about the South Yorkshire plods and at third position on the BBC newspage:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31859931

Well its no surprise to anyone with sense that industrial scale child rape was happening on the Sheffield side of the M1 as well as the Rotherham side.

Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

Pulpstar

Artist said:

The DUP getting carried away a bit?

"The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675

And that the Conservatives would scrap the bedroom tax. Sound like negotiating start points to me rather than final red lines.

compouter2

Tissues share prices nudge up. Keyboard cleaning vacancies begin to rise.

Basil back in bed.

FrancisUrquhart

compouter2 said:

Tissues share prices nudge up. Keyboard cleaning vacancies begin to rise.

Basil back in bed.

http://pinkbluelovescute.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Squirrel-has-a-bed-in-the-car.-What.jpeg

kle4

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.


.

For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.

For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.

Point taken. I have trouble believing Cameron could come close to replicating that, I'd imagine it's more a case of him having less horrible ratings than Ed M than actually having good ratings, which must surely blunt the effect of having that lead, but hope springs eternal for his team, not without some precedent I guess.

Scrapheap_as_was

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?

GIN1138

Is that the first time ever (well since 2010, etc..) that the Tories have had a lead with YouGov on a Thursday?

Danny565

Are Jim Murphy's approval ratings in Scotland better than Miliband's are in the UK as a whole?

26% approval really does seem extraordinarily poor considering Murphy should still be in his "honeymoon".

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.

Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats

Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?

MarqueeMark

Perhaps better expressed as Jim Murphy isn't turning out to be the great hope that Jim Murphy was hoping to be.

chestnut

32!!!

Labour set to go lower than a snake's belly.

FrancisUrquhart

chestnut said:

32!!!

Labour set to go lower than a snake's belly.

They have been as low as 31% I believe in recent days.

kle4

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?

In fairness, even with the Scottish troubles there is a chance 1% is sufficient for Labour (though probably not), whereas 1% for the Tories it is almost certainly not sufficient.

Alistair

MikeGreene said:

Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
of this was in the 11 seats they won.
40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......

The can retqin Shetland & Orkney as
A) Small electorate
Massive personal vote that won't be picked up in national poles.

The Swing the SNP are getting is certainly proportional rather than Uniform.

MikeK

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov - Tories ahead by one: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%

UKIP breaks out of the 15% mould.

Danny565

Meanwhile, ELBOW crossover now seems pretty much nailed on. Labour would probably need to have 3/4-point leads in all remaining polls or something to avoid it.

AlastairMeeks

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

kle4 said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

All good questions, which can also be translated to Tory hopes of an win of course, but at least there things are pretty close so it is more conceivable a small movement could swing things. In Scotland, not looking promising.

The Tories have two reasonable grounds to hope that things might change:

1) their leader is far more popular than Labour's leader.
2) the budget may change the weather.


.

For 1), I just don't see how it will swing things if the extent of its impact to date has been to see the parties level pegging (yes, I know, most people don't pay attention to politics and all that, but we're so close now can that really be the case that it could have such an impact as to enable a Tory win?)

For 2) I'd agree, probably unlikely. Not least because anything announced will be seen as a gimmick at this stage I guess, and Osborne has a hit and miss record when it comes to delivering these things.

For the most spectacular example of 1) see Holyrood 2011. Labour were leading in the polls in early 2011, but Iain Gray was far behind Alex Salmond in personal ratings. During the election campaign, Labour's support evaporated.

Point taken. I have trouble believing Cameron could come close to replicating that, I'd imagine it's more a case of him having less horrible ratings than Ed M than actually having good ratings, which must surely blunt the effect of having that lead, but hope springs eternal for his team, not without some precedent I guess.

To be clear, I see this election as being on a complete knife edge in seat counts. I think it rather more likely that we'll have a Labour Prime Minister in May than another five years of David Cameron. But it's all to play for, it seems.

Carnyx

antifrank said:

another_richard said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".

If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.

Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.

Danny565

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.

Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats

Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?

The oddest one is Dumfries & Galloway -- one of the most anti-independence seats in the country (and also was one of the most anti-devolution in the 1997 referendum) yet was held by the SNP in the fairly recent past...

SimonStClare

Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland.


Is 'shellacking the correct technical term?

RobD

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

"SK Tremayne is a pen name for a best-selling author who wishes to stay anonymous"

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

"SK Tremayne is a pen name for a best-selling author who wishes to stay anonymous."

LOL

AlastairMeeks

Carnyx said:

antifrank said:

another_richard said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".

If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.

Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.

The SNP were polling well at the end of September and the beginning of October. But they soared at the end of October:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table

MaxPB

The SNP are going to romp home on these figures. Might be some interesting results for the Tories if they can hold up at 18 points. Mundell may hold on relatively easily if they do.

GIN1138

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

Congrats.

Scrapheap_as_was

kle4 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·17 secs18 seconds ago
So CON back in the lead, albeit just 1%, with YouGov. Tomorrow sees Populus then we'll have weekend polls

Was it 'albeit just 1%' yesterday?

In fairness, even with the Scottish troubles there is a chance 1% is sufficient for Labour (though probably not), whereas 1% for the Tories it is almost certainly not sufficient.

Fair comment.

Betfair Lab most seats still over 3 though....

Dair

Artist said:

The DUP getting carried away a bit?

"The Westminster leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said an Ed Miliband government would have to offer a European referendum in exchange for the support of DUP MPs in the event of a hung parliament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863675

Hasn't Northern Ireland had by far the largest proportionate share of EU money within the UK? Voters there need to wake up about what their "traditional" voting seems to be doing for them.

TheScreamingEagles

SimonStClare said:

Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland.


Is 'shellacking the correct technical term?

Who, What, Why: What is a 'shellacking'?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11692885

AlastairMeeks

Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.

glw

another_richard said:

Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.

Carnyx

antifrank said:

Carnyx said:

antifrank said:

another_richard said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Remember all those SNAT 'tipping point' comments during the referendum.

Well we DO seem to have reached a tipping point now.

Surely all the SNP should do is keep repeating "we'll fight for Scotland at Westminster and get Scotland a better deal than SLAB, SLD and SCON will do".

If I were picking a tipping point, it would be Johann Lamont's resignation.

Before that surely - the SNP ratings were well up were they not? I'd say the Vow and Mr Cameron tearing it to icky little bits the morning after indyref are what did it. The timing seems right.

The SNP were polling well at the end of September and the beginning of October. But they soared at the end of October:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table

Many thanks - so they did.

TheScreamingEagles

It was either shellacking or Labour on course for a pounding a dockside hooker experiences when the fleet is in.

another_richard

Pulpstar said:

If you were up in Scotland, why wouldn't you vote SNP - you get to have alot more power that way than a lobby fodder Labour MP. If I was in a Lab/SNP contest seat would be a very easy choice to make.

Exactly.

philiph

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

Congratulations and good luck on the roller coaster to celluloid completion.

Dair

Danny565 said:

Are Jim Murphy's approval ratings in Scotland better than Miliband's are in the UK as a whole?

26% approval really does seem extraordinarily poor considering Murphy should still be in his "honeymoon".

He never had a honeymoon period. Possibly just the opposite.

There's also a very real possibility of his 26% including a statistically significant "Irony Approval".

DavidL

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.

I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.

I am not sure the DavidLs are a particularly meaningful subset of Scottish opinion. But FWIW I have decided that I cannot bring myself to vote for Jim McGovern in Dundee West. Firstly, I have no respect for the man and secondly I have no interest in reducing his margin of defeat to 9,999.

If I lived in a different seat with a different Labour candidate I could see myself voting Labour as a Unionist tactical vote. I would vote for Murphy for example. I would vote for Danny Alexander in a heartbeat but Labour will pay a price for having put up with so many completely useless Trade Union has beens and never was's in Scotland. They are distinctly unattractive to a Unionist like myself and the dozen or so across Scotland who think similarly.

another_richard

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

The Tory Surge (TM) Would give them 5 seats under SMAPS

Dumfries & Galloway
Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Perth & North Perthshire
and
Banff & Buchan

Tories to get 5x as many seats.... quick, fetch the smelling salts.

SMAPS and reality don't always get along. the chance of Angus (see edit) or Banff & Buchan going Con is vanishingly slim.

Western Isles seem to be a bit of an odd one, "No" voters but still very strongly SNP.

Higher than the national average. Much stronger Yes than the rest of the SNPs seats

Which was the strongest No seat for SNP - Banff & Buchan ?

The oddest one is Dumfries & Galloway -- one of the most anti-independence seats in the country (and also was one of the most anti-devolution in the 1997 referendum) yet was held by the SNP in the fairly recent past...

Much of the SNP vote there in yesteryear and the Labour vote there in 2005 and 2010 was of the anti-Conservative variety.

TheWatcher

antifrank said:

Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.

Did he have 2 kitchens as well?

MarqueeMark

MikeGreene said:

Just a quick one on the LibDems in Scotland
It is really difficult to see how they can retain any of their seats.
One thing nobody seems to have concentrated on is just how focused their votes were in 2010.
Although they achieved 18.9% of the vote across all 51 seats, 40% (well 39.9%)
of this was in the 11 seats they won.
40% of 18.9% = 7.5% so even if this time around, with just 4% of Scottish votes, they got no votes at all in the 40 seats they do not hold, that means their vote in the 11 they do must have dropped by an absolute minimum of 47%.
OK maybe they will concentrate their votes in one or two seats but really? 4% for them means no seats at all in Scotland.
For what it's worth (and that's probably not a huge amount), a Uniform Proportional Swing in Scotland commensurate with a 46/27/18/4/3/2 would, using my model, bizarrely end up with SNP on 49 with the other two going CON......

Nicely calculated. You won't be getting a Xmas card from OGH though.

Scottish LibDem MPs getting to the point where they don't need special pleading - they need special mathematics. Also known as magic.

I think you meant SNP on 57?

57:2:0:0 would be the funniest result of all time..... Now SLAB, about those panda gags. TIme to turn them back onto you. SLAB less seats than Loch Ness Monsters - at least there might be one of them...

AlastairMeeks

@DavidL what would you do if you lived in one of the Edinburgh constituencies?

Alistair

glw said:

another_richard said:

Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.

The policing reform in Scotland has been hugely controversial. I am not sure it has been a good thing.

GIN1138

antifrank said:

Anyway, Ed Miliband is shaping up to be Labour's Lord North.

Losing Scotland or having 12 years as Prime Minister?

MaxPB

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

Congratulations! Still have yet to read it, I'll pick up the kindle edition at some point.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Why would we expect the poll shares in Scotland to change before 7 May now? What new element might cause a reaction in favour of Labour? Do they have any new arguments? Will any current arguments gain new traction? Do they have any attractive politicians to win back the disaffected?

The only risk to a whitewash now looks to be a self-inflicted SNP wound.

Or a Tory surge, as this poll seems to show.

I wonder whether that's a hint that the DavidLs are giving up on Jim Murphy. More likely, it's just random noise.

I am not sure the DavidLs are a particularly meaningful subset of Scottish opinion. But FWIW I have decided that I cannot bring myself to vote for Jim McGovern in Dundee West. Firstly, I have no respect for the man and secondly I have no interest in reducing his margin of defeat to 9,999.

If I lived in a different seat with a different Labour candidate I could see myself voting Labour as a Unionist tactical vote. I would vote for Murphy for example. I would vote for Danny Alexander in a heartbeat but Labour will pay a price for having put up with so many completely useless Trade Union has beens and never was's in Scotland. They are distinctly unattractive to a Unionist like myself and the dozen or so across Scotland who think similarly.

You were on the money during the Indyref, something that earned the respect of many PBers.

Artist

Anna Soubry seems to be on Question Time every few weeks. Natalie Bennett also on.

Jonathan

We're probably looking at another independence vote in the next parliament.

FrancisUrquhart

Islamic State 'using chlorine gas' in roadside bombs

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31846021

Jeez..

another_richard

glw said:

another_richard said:

Nor is it any surprise that the South Yorkshire plods tolerated it.

Can anyone explain why this government still has trust in the South Yorkshire plods ???

Which ever party or parties form the next government should have a look at restructuring the police forces in England and Wales. Does it really make sense to have 40 odd police forces? Pick the leadership from the best half of the forces and put them in charge of the rest, and cut the numbers down drastically, maybe even follow what has been done in Scotland.

It sounds good in theory.

But with the plods it seems that the scum rather than the cream rise to the top.

MarqueeMark

SeanT said:

My creepily identical twin sister, S K Tremayne, has just sold her soul to Hollywood, according to industry rumours.

http://t.co/aTUuj1o9xm

For shame.

Heh.

Congrats. Just be psychologically prepared for them to turn it into a musical...

glw

Alistair said:

The policing reform in Scotland has been hugely controversial. I am not sure it has been a good thing.

Maybe so, but I think we've reached the point where we need a similar scale of reform in England.

kle4

Jonathan said:

We're probably looking at another independence vote in the next parliament.

Seems impossible to avoid. I just hope the Unionists remain up for the fight and think on situations like the PQ in Canada which might give some hope, as I've had all the fight beaten of me and have pretty much given up on it given the low odds of a new settlement that will please enough people.