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Tory plus LD must surely need 315 seats for Cameron to remain PM I'd have thought. That means less than 50 losses. Given the Lib Dems will surely lose 15 seats to Labour and SNP, that leaves a maximum 33 losses by the Tories to Labour.justin124 said:
But to make a point that you have alluded to yourself, if Labour were to be 4 - 5% adrift of the Tories in GB as a whole it would still tend to imply a Con to Lab swing in England of about 2.5% - if we assume that a collapse in Scotland has knocked 1.5% off its national vote share. Such a swing could still hand Labour 30 or so Tory seats - plus 6 - 10 LibDem seats.MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.
That's assuming the SNP are as good as their word that they would not back up a Tory government. Given the current Tory campaign tactic of stoking English grievance at Scottish nationalist influence that must be receding by the day.0 -
What can it say that the Ashcroft polling hasn't? The only surprise would be a massive swing back from SNP to Labour and that wouldn't push "Most Seats" out!Artist said:0 -
I'm pretty hopeful - the 17% Libdems are very much the Red Liberal type rather than the NOTA type, and they still don't have a candidate at all.macisback said:
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He hasn't.kjohnw said:how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
Prog 1 - Miliband
Prog 2 - SNP + PC + Green
Not sure about 3 and 4 - maybe Clegg and Farage. Has Cameron rejected invite?
Or Clegg and Farage on one prog and Cameron on other?0 -
An SNP vote share of 55% (which I fully expect at least once in Scottish polling before May 7th would give people a lot to talk about.Alistair said:
What can it say that the Ashcroft polling hasn't? The only surprise would be a massive swing back from SNP to Labour and that wouldn't push "Most Seats" out!Artist said:0 -
The description for the series stated "leading figures" from each of the major parties....that suggests that one or more of the other parties leaders aren't going to be interviewed (I presume they rejected the offer).MikeL said:
He hasn't.kjohnw said:how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
Prog 1 - Miliband
Prog 2 - SNP + PC + Green
Not sure about 3 and 4 - maybe Clegg and Farage. Has Cameron rejected invite?
Or Clegg and Farage on one prog and Cameron on other?0 -
For the latter, Mike Krzyzewski, the preferred term is "Coach K" for obvious reasons :-)RobD said:0 -
I've been given a briefing on the polling for background. If they choose to release it then I can talk about them.Casino_Royale said:
What do you think the two are, Mike? Watford and OW&A?MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.0 -
I like my idea better...Dair said:
An SNP vote share of 55% (which I fully expect at least once in Scottish polling before May 7th would give people a lot to talk about.Alistair said:
What can it say that the Ashcroft polling hasn't? The only surprise would be a massive swing back from SNP to Labour and that wouldn't push "Most Seats" out!Artist said:
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Miliband getting a really hard time over cannabis. Audience is clearly keen on legalisation.
Some of the audience seem quite clued up on certain areas.0 -
I also don't share the view of many that all LibDem MPs would be up for supporting another Tory-led Government. Clegg may well want that but I suspect a good number will decline to follow any lead he might try to give. His authority is pretty well gone anyway.FrankBooth said:
Tory plus LD must surely need 315 seats for Cameron to remain PM I'd have thought. That means less than 50 losses. Given the Lib Dems will surely lose 15 seats to Labour and SNP, that leaves a maximum 33 losses by the Tories to Labour.justin124 said:
But to make a point that you have alluded to yourself, if Labour were to be 4 - 5% adrift of the Tories in GB as a whole it would still tend to imply a Con to Lab swing in England of about 2.5% - if we assume that a collapse in Scotland has knocked 1.5% off its national vote share. Such a swing could still hand Labour 30 or so Tory seats - plus 6 - 10 LibDem seats.MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.
That's assuming the SNP are as good as their word that they would not back up a Tory government. Given the current Tory campaign tactic of stoking English grievance at Scottish nationalist influence that must be receding by the day.0 -
I'm not sure I believe in this red liberal stuff. Perhaps some people could have come to the view in 2010 that the Lib Dems were the best hope for socialism in the future, but I suspect they are wolly liberals who are aghast at the coalition and a Lib Dem leadership that seems drunk on Economist editorials. The sort of people who cant stand the likes of Osborne, Gove and Grayling and will do what's necessary to get the out of government. Rather than 'coming home to Labouur' I suspect many could abandon you quite quickly and go back to don't know next time.NickPalmer said:
I'm pretty hopeful - the 17% Libdems are very much the Red Liberal type rather than the NOTA type, and they still don't have a candidate at all.macisback said:0 -
...ahem....Yougov.
Evening OGH.0 -
Surely no chance Cameron would go on a show like this. One hour of non stop questions from an unforgiving audience.MikeL said:
He hasn't.kjohnw said:how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
Prog 1 - Miliband
Prog 2 - SNP + PC + Green
Not sure about 3 and 4 - maybe Clegg and Farage. Has Cameron rejected invite?
Or Clegg and Farage on one prog and Cameron on other?0 -
Indeed in as Trevor Phillips put it in 'UKIP land' which given such a thing isn't likely to exist anytime soon sounds pretty aspirational to me. Farage said also that he took that view because UKIP are colour blind which clearly implies that the colour of ones skin was not a consideration in his mind and that things had moved on considerably in the country and race was no longer an issue. Yet the Prime Minister and others have wilfully misinterpreted what was said in such a manner to suit their own purposes.JEO said:
Nigel Farage was asked specifically whether he would scrap regulation based on race or colour, and he said he would.Hengists_Gift said:Tory hysteria reaches new heights. Heads have once again exploded feathers everywhere as they run amok in Downing Street
'Goebbels would be proud!' Tory fury over Nigel Farage's call to discriminate between workers
David Cameron leads condemnation of UKIP leader, who insists call for more discrimination has been misinterpreted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11468717/Goebbels-would-be-proud-Tory-fury-over-Nigel-Farages-call-to-discriminate-between-workers.html
Don't Tories understand the difference between nationality and race?
Although perhaps it is this that has got them spitting feathers. Farage in the Indy:
I’m afraid that what this incident has really shown us is that the mainstream establishment, including the press and the media, are perhaps racist themselves. Because when I said “British” they heard “white”, and set a course for the media narrative to pretend I made a distinction between people of different skin colours. This is their own, inbuilt racism. And it’s shameful.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html
I'm sure Goebbels would have been proud of the Tory conflation........
Of course, the Telegraph is (perhaps willfully) misreporting the matter when it states that Farage was calling for discrimination.
Now if you ask me Farage was being optimistic and perhaps overly so in expressing his views that the issue was resolved. There are still legacy challenges regarding race not least with those who insist on viewing issues purely through the divisive prism of race rather than the prism of our British nation. There are also new challenges largely resulting out of two decades of uncontrolled immigration (e.g. the growing concerns within the Jewish community) which need to be assessed and addressed.
Either way, I don't think Farage is far from the mark when he says that there are those within the establishment with a distinctly racist mindset. Not in the establishment sense perhaps but in the sense of moving to a situation where race is no longer a consideration. In that certainly he is right.0 -
One has to think that in terms of UK politics the pretence that the War on Drugs is working and expecting supporting it to be a vote gain over legalisation has to be reaching crossover.Garethofthevale said:Miliband getting a really hard time over cannabis. Audience is clearly keen on legalisation.
Some of the audience seem quite clued up on certain areas.0 -
If they're having Prog 3 Farage and Clegg and Prog 4 Cameron, it seems the SNP and UKIP are in the wrong boxes. UKIP and their 0-2 seat projection should be in with PC and the Greens while Prog 3 should be Sturgeon and Clegg.MikeL said:
He hasn't.kjohnw said:how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
Prog 1 - Miliband
Prog 2 - SNP + PC + Green
Not sure about 3 and 4 - maybe Clegg and Farage. Has Cameron rejected invite?
Or Clegg and Farage on one prog and Cameron on other?0 -
"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." - Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.0 -
We are due a very good yougov for Labour, tonight.0
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I'm pretty sure the Tories don't use shortlists.MP_SE said:"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.0 -
Yep, I'm not saying with 315 combined it will happen. But less than that it's hard to see it being workable. And that means no more than 33 losses from Tory to Labour.justin124 said:
I also don't share the view of many that all LibDem MPs would be up for supporting another Tory-led Government. Clegg may well want that but I suspect a good number will decline to follow any lead he might try to give. His authority is pretty well gone anyway.FrankBooth said:
Tory plus LD must surely need 315 seats for Cameron to remain PM I'd have thought. That means less than 50 losses. Given the Lib Dems will surely lose 15 seats to Labour and SNP, that leaves a maximum 33 losses by the Tories to Labour.justin124 said:
But to make a point that you have alluded to yourself, if Labour were to be 4 - 5% adrift of the Tories in GB as a whole it would still tend to imply a Con to Lab swing in England of about 2.5% - if we assume that a collapse in Scotland has knocked 1.5% off its national vote share. Such a swing could still hand Labour 30 or so Tory seats - plus 6 - 10 LibDem seats.MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.
That's assuming the SNP are as good as their word that they would not back up a Tory government. Given the current Tory campaign tactic of stoking English grievance at Scottish nationalist influence that must be receding by the day.0 -
Wasn't Rochester and Strood an all women shortlist? Well two women and noone else. I am sure the poorest of male candidates local to the area would perform better than Kelly Tolhurst.RobD said:
I'm pretty sure the Tories don't use shortlists.MP_SE said:"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.
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I can only imagine non white people whose families have lived here for generations must feel patronised beyond beliefMP_SE said:"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.
Mark Littlewood put it well today on Daily Politics. There used to be a lot of thoughtless racism about a generation or so ago. There isn't anywhere near as much now. So relaxing the race relations laws is a positive move that acknowledges that progress
People that insist on these draconian measures probably never let their kids take the stabilisers off their bikes0 -
Not sure of the specifics in that case. Were the candidates imposed by CCHQ? It could have just been that the top two candidates were women.MP_SE said:
Wasn't Rochester and Strood an all women shortlist? Well two women and noone else.RobD said:
I'm pretty sure the Tories don't use shortlists.MP_SE said:"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.0 -
I understand that's the theory.Smarmeron said:@Dair
Cannabis questions are a nightmare for the major parties at election time.
There is way to much prejudice and misinformation in the media to make it anything other than a front page vote loser if anyone gives a positive view of legalization.
I'm just not convinced it is still true.0 -
2 kitchens Ed eh
guffaw
He has form for this doesn't he.
I seem to remember a cunning stunt on a train.
Man of the people my arse.0 -
I can't speak for the UK, which I'm sure is in the same boat as the US, but the US has spent decades and billions of dollars trying to stem the flow of drugs into the country. From interdiction at sea to searching northbound vehicles on I-95 all attempts have been unsuccessful.Dair said:
One has to think that in terms of UK politics the pretence that the War on Drugs is working and expecting supporting it to be a vote gain over legalisation has to be reaching crossover.Garethofthevale said:Miliband getting a really hard time over cannabis. Audience is clearly keen on legalisation.
Some of the audience seem quite clued up on certain areas.
At some point you have to accept that what you're doing is not having the desired effect and merely to keep doing the same is pointless.
The only alternative is to legalize and tax the less harmful ones.0 -
Unlucky Ed
@GdnPolitics: Kitchen sink drama for Miliband as homely photo backfires http://t.co/j7bXCj7sLl0 -
And prescribe and control the use of the more harmful ones.Tim_B said:
I can't speak for the UK, which I'm sure is in the same boat as the US, but the US has spent decades and billions of dollars trying to stem the flow of drugs into the country. From interdiction at sea to searching northbound vehicles on I-95 all attempts have been unsuccessful.Dair said:
One has to think that in terms of UK politics the pretence that the War on Drugs is working and expecting supporting it to be a vote gain over legalisation has to be reaching crossover.Garethofthevale said:Miliband getting a really hard time over cannabis. Audience is clearly keen on legalisation.
Some of the audience seem quite clued up on certain areas.
At some point you have to accept that what you're doing is not having the desired effect and merely to keep doing the same is pointless.
The only alternative is to legalize and tax the less harmful ones.0 -
Maybe but how many WWC votes have you lost to UKIP and will Soubry maximise her skills in the media to get her fullest possible vote out, with the improving economy in the area. I think there were doubts how interested she would be but pretty clear now she really wants the prize. Might all come down to how your leader performs in the next 2 months.NickPalmer said:
I'm pretty hopeful - the 17% Libdems are very much the Red Liberal type rather than the NOTA type, and they still don't have a candidate at all.macisback said:
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Perhaps they are doing it on the number of voters each party might expect. Now go on tell us that the SNP will poll more votes than UKIP........Dair said:
If they're having Prog 3 Farage and Clegg and Prog 4 Cameron, it seems the SNP and UKIP are in the wrong boxes. UKIP and their 0-2 seat projection should be in with PC and the Greens while Prog 3 should be Sturgeon and Clegg.MikeL said:
He hasn't.kjohnw said:how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
Prog 1 - Miliband
Prog 2 - SNP + PC + Green
Not sure about 3 and 4 - maybe Clegg and Farage. Has Cameron rejected invite?
Or Clegg and Farage on one prog and Cameron on other?
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New Thread0
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Their kids don't get bikes in the first place......isam said:
I can only imagine non white people whose families have lived here for generations must feel patronised beyond beliefMP_SE said:"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King.
This will clearly not happen if the LibLabCon have their way. Quotas and shortlists are the their only solution.
Mark Littlewood put it well today on Daily Politics. There used to be a lot of thoughtless racism about a generation or so ago. There isn't anywhere near as much now. So relaxing the race relations laws is a positive move that acknowledges that progress
People that insist on these draconian measures probably never let their kids take the stabilisers off their bikes0 -
I missed this when it was revealed...Floater said:2 kitchens Ed eh
guffaw
He has form for this doesn't he.
I seem to remember a cunning stunt on a train.
Man of the people my arse.
The Taxpayer shelled out £757,000 on transport for Ed Miliband last year, amounting to £63,000 a month....that is up from £600k in the first year he was LOTO.
That can't be right can it? £2k a day?0 -
Mike Smithson retweeted
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 2h2 hours ago
Here is the chart that should get Lynton Crosby fired - poll support for Tories remained flat at 32% since March 20120 -
I thought Danny Blanchflower was the captain of Spurs in the early 1960s.0
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Thats always a sign of a fitup. Clued up means already an activist. What self respecting 18 to 24 year old would even entertain the idea of asking someone like Miliband questions? Everyone of them will be party activists one way or another.Garethofthevale said:Miliband getting a really hard time over cannabis. Audience is clearly keen on legalisation.
Some of the audience seem quite clued up on certain areas.0
