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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Oddly enough, the much-criticised Daily Mail article about the Milibands' kitchen hit the nail on the head first time round:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2990810/Why-kitchen-tells-need-know-mirthless-Milibands-s-suggest-Ed-Justine-not-fact-aliens.html

    "Surely that can’t really be Ed and Justine’s kitchen? All that lovely huge, fancy house, and that is where they do their cooking?

    I hope for their sake that it’s actually their utility room, and that some bossy spin doctor has shoved them in there to make their £2 million-plus townhouse in North London’s trendy Kentish Town look less fabulous and to bolster Ed’s man-o’-the-people image."
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Why were Ed and Justine hiding in the butler's pantry?

    To keep the expensive family kitchen off our TV screens, and give the false impression that they live in a normal home rather than a £multi-million smart London townhouse?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,893
    dr_spyn said:

    Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.

    Seems to be par for the course in South Yorkshire.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    RobD said:

    Todays mori EICIPM and 3 winners at Cheltenham

    Perfect

    Excellent! Any plans for the winnings? More punts??
    Not till I lose some of the alcohol from my bloodstream. Mind you Mrs BJ supped me under the table. Could be my lucky night if she is still conscious by the time we get home.
    Delightful... LOL
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2015
    Labour do seem to be in some disarray in Halifax:

    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/election-politics/politics-and-election-news/labour-row-with-union-is-blamed-for-halifax-delay-1-7145238

    http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/calderdale/departing-halifax-mp-s-warning-to-labour-chiefs-1-7151951

    It's a seat they could lose, so it's extraordinary that they don't even have a candidate yet. In fact, they don't even seem to have got to the shortlist stage.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    dr_spyn said:

    Andrea Parma retweeted
    James Reed ‏@JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
    #Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks

    To think that women campaigned and in some cases died for equal rights only for it to be undone by rediculous policies such as all women shortlists.

    Quite relevant to today as the best candidate should be selected for the job regardless of sex, race, disability, etc.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,309
    rcs1000 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Andrea Parma retweeted
    James Reed ‏@JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
    #Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks

    All woman, or all women?
    Don't know if someone is waiting for the operation...

    However another London councillor/assembly member is looking for a seat.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/03/halifax-selection-will-be-an-all-women-shortlist/
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    My train manager just told us the next station.is Bristol New Street. I thought I was the one who has been on the lash all afternoon
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,309
    edited March 2015

    My train manager just told us the next station.is Bristol New Street. I thought I was the one who has been on the lash all afternoon

    During The Festival Week, a couple of years ago, whilst waiting at Bristol Temple Meads, I saw First Great Western staff helping some befuddled and confused racegoers who were disappointed that they hadn't arrived at the subterranean pit that is Birmingham New St. They had boarded their train at the wrong platform at Cheltenham.

    Have a good evening.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    SMukesh said:

    Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?

    Not sure if you can read, they are actually down 2.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    A couple of weeks ago I backed Lib Dems to out poll UKIP at 5/2 w Ladbrokes.. £50

    They are 9/4 now, if anyone wants to buy the bet off me let me know

    You are on a losing wicket, old chap. I'll bet you £100 evens that UKIP outvote the L/Dems.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP ‏@woodside2010 7m7 minutes ago
    @Nigel_Farage

    You can't disparage Farage,
    he'll only grow and grow
    The more they try
    The more they'll cry
    Chicken Cameron's got to go!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    SMukesh said:

    Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?

    Not sure if you can read, they are actually down 2.
    Not sure if I can read... all voters ;)

    still.. all voters include those that won't actually vote. So shouldn't be drawing too much comfort from those.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    RobD said:

    SMukesh said:

    Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?

    Not sure if you can read, they are actually down 2.
    Ok 4 points Lab lead over Con,all VI,is that Ok?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,103
    Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles

    Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x
  • isamisam Posts: 42,103
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    A couple of weeks ago I backed Lib Dems to out poll UKIP at 5/2 w Ladbrokes.. £50

    They are 9/4 now, if anyone wants to buy the bet off me let me know

    You are on a losing wicket, old chap. I'll bet you £100 evens that UKIP outvote the L/Dems.
    I am already on that at 6/4, just want to shift this £50@5/2.. I will accept £48
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    SMukesh said:

    RobD said:

    SMukesh said:

    Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?

    Not sure if you can read, they are actually down 2.
    Ok 4 points Lab lead over Con,all VI,is that Ok?
    Yeah, noticed my mistake and posted again. I'd be interested to see how well the MORI all voters figure just prior to 2010 actually compared with the results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    isam said:

    Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles

    Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x

    Be careful what you ask for "David Cameron has highest satisfaction ratings in latest MORI poll", anyone?
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Plato said:

    God created Bedford in Seven Days. I'm surprised you didn't know this.

    john_zims said:

    @MikeSmithson

    'Ashcroft & ICM link back to 2010 vote but dilute it to take account of false recall. That is their primary means of political weighting. Are you saying that they might as well make it up?'

    What I do find strange is we get told the Lib Dems have done private polling that shows they are 'competitive' in seats like Solihull,two weeks later the data still isn't published and then Survation who apparently carried out the poll,but without any input on the questions, then appear to distance themselves from it.

    Bedford has its own religion, the Panaceans, when the rapture comes the world will be destroyed except for Bedford and 30 miles around it which will be saved and go onto a higher existence.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,103
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles

    Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x

    Be careful what you ask for "David Cameron has highest satisfaction ratings in latest MORI poll", anyone?
    "Nick Clegg's improved leader ratings are a sign of Lib Dem stubbornness (as are my curmudgeonly thread headers)"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,224
    rcs1000 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Andrea Parma retweeted
    James Reed ‏@JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
    #Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks

    All woman, or all women?
    rcs1000 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Andrea Parma retweeted
    James Reed ‏@JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
    #Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks

    All woman, or all women?
    Post of the day
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    isam said:

    What's that you say Mike?

    FARAGE THE MOST POPULAR LEADER?????

    UP 5.5 POINTS ON THE LEADER RATINGS???

    FARAGE THE MOST POPULAR YOU SAY MIKE?!

    Strictly the least unpopular as they are all in negative territory.
  • The uncertainty around this election and the possibility of no one being able to form a viable government maybe all three leaders will go and someone will have to form a grand coalition but who.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,681
    Mr. NorthWales, can't see that. If it did happen, it'd be fantastic for UKIP (and the SNP).
  • Mr. NorthWales, can't see that. If it did happen, it'd be fantastic for UKIP (and the SNP).

    Any grand coalition would presumably be formed around the conservatives and labour but who would lead
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2015
    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @RodCrosby

    Looking like an ARSE/MonteCarlo axis. :smile:
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JackW said:

    @RodCrosby

    Looking like an ARSE/MonteCarlo axis. :smile:

    Would your ARSE be able to withstand 10,000 simulations?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    edited March 2015
    Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @RodCrosby calls it for the Tories.

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.

    The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
    EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    Chance of EICIPM?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    antifrank said:

    Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.

    The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
    EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.
    LOL
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    EMWNBPM?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    @RodCrosby calls it for the Tories.

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats



    That's just the L&N model. I dont think Rod has said which model he is going with for this GE yet? (And iirc the L&N model was producing the best numbers for the Tories?)

  • Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Neil said:

    JackW said:

    @RodCrosby

    Looking like an ARSE/MonteCarlo axis. :smile:

    Would your ARSE be able to withstand 10,000 simulations?

    In the fleshpots of Monte Carlo anything is possible.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    An interesting Scotland crossbreak with this poll

    SNP 42 Lab 14 Con 29 LD 12 Grn 1

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    Chance of EICIPM?
    Less than your chances tonight if Mrs BJO catches up with your earlier posts.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    edited March 2015
    (Just For Fun)

    YouGov Prediction:

    Lab Lead 2% - EICIPM
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Neil said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    Chance of EICIPM?
    Less than your chances tonight if Mrs BJO catches up with your earlier posts.

    LOL she is asleep I think.Unless my unconscious forecast is as accurate as my EICIPM onez
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Yup.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    antifrank said:

    Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.

    The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
    EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.
    Upstairs or Downstairs?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2015
    Neil said:

    @RodCrosby calls it for the Tories.

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats



    That's just the L&N model. I dont think Rod has said which model he is going with for this GE yet? (And iirc the L&N model was producing the best numbers for the Tories?)

    Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models (with change on last month)

    2009-2010 repeat: -1.8% down
    Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
    Fisher: 2.9% up
    Hanretty: 3.4% up
    Prosser: 5.0% n/c
    L&N: 7.9% up

    The big mover is the 2009-2010 repeat, now moving to a Labour lead. But that "model" has the least statistical justification, imho... (not a model at all, just a random benchmark, really)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Does Rod do Cheltenham?

    98% chance of ....... winning Gold Cup
  • Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Yup.

    He's going to get a lot of hassle over 'two kitchen ed' I would expect
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    justin124 said:


    An interesting Scotland crossbreak with this poll

    SNP 42 Lab 14 Con 29 LD 12 Grn 1

    Tory surge in Scotland nailed on!
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    RobD said:

    71-year-old man interviewed on Thursday by detectives from Operation Yewtree is publicist Max Clifford, BBC understands

    I highly recommend watching the old Louis Theroux documentaries with the likes of Clifford, Savile, etc, they are really eye opening.

    The old Andrew Neil interview with Savile is also of interest.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mJ4a0ODPBM
    Very interesting thanks. Brillo looks younger now 20 years on. Wow Savile was a complicated and clever person,he could certainly play an audience,very interesting knowing what we do now.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    Chance of EICIPM?
    About the same as the chance of a:-

    Lab/SNP/LD + Allsorts coalition?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    edited March 2015
    Do we think the Sun are currently locked in a big brain storming meeting about what pun to use for the front page? Two Microwave Miliband or could it be Two Aga Ed?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,101

    Do we think the Sun are currently locked in a big brain storming meeting about what pun to use for the front page? Two Microwave Miliband or could it be Two Aga Ed?

    "Sun". "big brain"

    Eh?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.9%
    Con seat lead 67 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG

    However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.

    Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.

    Chance of EICIPM?
    About the same as the chance of a:-

    Lab/SNP/LD + Allsorts coalition?
    We're you wrong about January crossover or is it still too early to tell?
  • Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?
    The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchen
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,101

    dr_spyn said:

    Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.

    Seems to be par for the course in South Yorkshire.
    What with the Hillsborough Inquiry revelations, makes one really wonder about SYP. Disbandment, takeover must be on the cards.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    edited March 2015

    Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?
    The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchen
    Actually it wasn't Staines, Jenni Russell, friends of Miliband, dropped them in it, trying to defend Miliband's over bitchy article by Sarah Vine in the Mail.

    It is all a bit pathetic tbh, but again like tax avoidance, Miliband has been rather pious about photo ops and spin.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.

    I saw that, on Look North. They had an interview with a police officer who said, on camera, that his bosses knew about the exploitation, but told him to inform the victims they would not prosecute the alleged culprits. They also had some quotes from the South Yorkshire police which, to me, seemed pretty dismissive.

    I don't recall any mention of Sheffield City Council in the report, but if the allegations are confirmed they'll have to explain what they knew when.
  • Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.

    Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?
    The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchen
    Actually it wasn't Staines, Jenni Russell, friends of Miliband, dropped them in it, trying to defend Miliband's over bitchy article by Sarah Vine in the Mail.

    It is all a bit pathetic tbh, but again like tax avoidance, Miliband has been rather pious about photo ops and spin.
    It doesn't look good
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2015
    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    Thanks for that. Also worth bearing in mind that in 1970 the 8 Ulster Unionists were included in the Tory total.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    RodCrosby said:

    Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)

    Crackers but I reckon the price still may be there on the eve of the GE. Even if polls remain broadly as is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,649
    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
    Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    RodCrosby said:

    Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)

    Somebody got wind of YouGov?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    Back from two 11-hour flights in 3 days to find things much as before. O/T must give a plug to the Seoul Asiana staff - after the airport bus took forever (the chauffeur got out twice to do physical exercises!), two of them literally sprinted to whisk me through security and get me to the plane with a couple of minutes to spare. The plane over was amazingly empty about 85% of seats free, so economy class felt luxurious), though the return journey was packed. Asiana is much cheaper than British Airways for Korea and the service seems more or less indistinguishable.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,649
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
    Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...
    Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    edited March 2015
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/passport-king-christian-kalin-helps-nations-sell-citizenship

    Really interesting article and again shows that countries acting alone in this globalized world wont be able to really change much when it comes to the uber wealthy.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)

    Somebody got wind of YouGov?

    Scottish poll out later.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,309
    Guido Fawkes retweeted
    Giles Coren ‏@gilescoren 24m24 minutes ago
    Ed: "where are my fucking car keys?"
    Justine: "in the kitchen!"
    Ed: "which fucking kitchen?"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    Artist said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)

    Somebody got wind of YouGov?

    Scottish poll out later.

    #meltdown
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.

    One nation, two kitchens, we're all in it together
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @NPXMP

    On the L&N figures you'd still have a 43% chance of regaining Broxtowe...

    (^_-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    edited March 2015
    Wasn't the pink bus on a kitchen table tour? I now know what that means.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,893

    This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.

    One nation, two kitchens, we're all in it together
    If you can't stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.

    But which one ?
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    RodCrosby said:

    @NPXMP

    On the L&N figures you'd still have a 43% chance of regaining Broxtowe...

    (^_-)

    About right Soubry is up for the fight could go either way.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,309
    Unnamed Insider ‏@Unnamedinsider 5m5 minutes ago
    #askmiliband your mum must be very proud of her successful son. Does that ever make you jealous?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,649
    If the 2013 boundaries had been passed I'd agree the Tories would be in with a very good chance of a majority. Losing that vote really was a big deal for them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,309
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
    Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
    A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband

    its going well...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
    Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...
    Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.
    I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.

    Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The bring back Clarkson petition now has over 783,600 signatures.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,103
    edited March 2015
    macisback said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @NPXMP

    On the L&N figures you'd still have a 43% chance of regaining Broxtowe...

    (^_-)

    About right Soubry is up for the fight could go either way.

    Soubry on QT again tonight with her hammy Midsomer Murders outraged upper middle class housewife act

    On more than Nige!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The polls could be understating the Tories/overstating Labour of course.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    macisback said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @NPXMP

    On the L&N figures you'd still have a 43% chance of regaining Broxtowe...

    (^_-)

    About right Soubry is up for the fight could go either way.

    On Question Time tonight with one of the most left wing panels they've ever had. Not a single red meat right winger on the show.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    Tory hysteria reaches new heights. Heads have once again exploded feathers everywhere as they run amok in Downing Street

    'Goebbels would be proud!' Tory fury over Nigel Farage's call to discriminate between workers

    David Cameron leads condemnation of UKIP leader, who insists call for more discrimination has been misinterpreted


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11468717/Goebbels-would-be-proud-Tory-fury-over-Nigel-Farages-call-to-discriminate-between-workers.html

    Don't Tories understand the difference between nationality and race?

    Although perhaps it is this that has got them spitting feathers. Farage in the Indy:

    I’m afraid that what this incident has really shown us is that the mainstream establishment, including the press and the media, are perhaps racist themselves. Because when I said “British” they heard “white”, and set a course for the media narrative to pretend I made a distinction between people of different skin colours. This is their own, inbuilt racism. And it’s shameful.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html

    I'm sure Goebbels would have been proud of the Tory conflation........
  • dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
    Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
    A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband

    its going well...

    I think Miliband is doing OK actually. There seems to be a Labour section in the audience who are whooping and clapping a lot
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
    Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...
    Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.
    I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.

    Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.

    But to make a point that you have alluded to yourself, if Labour were to be 4 - 5% adrift of the Tories in GB as a whole it would still tend to imply a Con to Lab swing in England of about 2.5% - if we assume that a collapse in Scotland has knocked 1.5% off its national vote share. Such a swing could still hand Labour 30 or so Tory seats - plus 6 - 10 LibDem seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
    Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
    A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband

    its going well...

    I think Miliband is doing OK actually. There seems to be a Labour section in the audience who are whooping and clapping a lot
    That's the reason I can't stand to watch many of these things. Cringeworthy....
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Tory hysteria reaches new heights. Heads have once again exploded feathers everywhere as they run amok in Downing Street

    'Goebbels would be proud!' Tory fury over Nigel Farage's call to discriminate between workers

    David Cameron leads condemnation of UKIP leader, who insists call for more discrimination has been misinterpreted


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11468717/Goebbels-would-be-proud-Tory-fury-over-Nigel-Farages-call-to-discriminate-between-workers.html

    Don't Tories understand the difference between nationality and race?

    Although perhaps it is this that has got them spitting feathers. Farage in the Indy:

    I’m afraid that what this incident has really shown us is that the mainstream establishment, including the press and the media, are perhaps racist themselves. Because when I said “British” they heard “white”, and set a course for the media narrative to pretend I made a distinction between people of different skin colours. This is their own, inbuilt racism. And it’s shameful.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html

    I'm sure Goebbels would have been proud of the Tory conflation........

    Nigel Farage was asked specifically whether he would scrap regulation based on race or colour, and he said he would.

    Of course, the Telegraph is (perhaps willfully) misreporting the matter when it states that Farage was calling for discrimination.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    Tim_B said:

    The bring back Clarkson petition now has over 783,600 signatures.

    You mentioned the C word. Prepare to be banned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,649

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.

    Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.
    About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.

    *of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
    It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.
    Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...
    Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.
    I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.

    Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.

    What do you think the two are, Mike? Watford and OW&A?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    The bring back Clarkson petition now has over 783,600 signatures.

    You mentioned the C word. Prepare to be banned.
    Can I still say Miliband or Krzyzewski?
  • dr_spyn said:

    Unnamed Insider ‏@Unnamedinsider 5m5 minutes ago
    #askmiliband your mum must be very proud of her successful son. Does that ever make you jealous?

    I miss the like button

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    I see on a local forum this post from one bemused recipient of the long campaign direct mail blitz:

    "Talking about spending money on fancy leaflets!! We have had 4 addressed leaflets through the post today from the conservatives!! One leaflet would have sufficed! Shiny or otherwise!"

    Is there any research on the point (if any) at which DMs and leaflets are actually overkill and put people off?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    The bring back Clarkson petition now has over 783,600 signatures.

    You mentioned the C word. Prepare to be banned.
    Can I still say Miliband or Krzyzewski?
    For the first, the preferred term is "EIC". ;)
This discussion has been closed.