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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP the big gainer with Ipsos-MORI while LAB retains a lea

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    chestnut said:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/mar2015web.pdf

    The London and South numbers are worth a chuckle.

    Labour 3% ahead of the Tories in England, but 15% behind the Tories in Scotland!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    edited March 2015
    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,105
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    Maybe if they organised an opinion poll with say 35 million people and split them into 650 separate polling districts we may get a better reflection of the GE result.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    Maybe if they organised an opinion poll with say 35 million people and split them into 650 separate polling districts we may get a better reflection of the GE result.

    It'd overstate Labour.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    edited March 2015

    Bristol Greens announce they have topped 2000 members. Good news for those of us who have bet on Green win there.

    Darren Hall ‏@DarrenHall2015 54m54 minutes ago
    Today is a good day - we have just passed 2000 members of @bristolgreen. Does anybody know how we compare to the other Parties in Bristol?

    Not many Green councillors or wanabee MPs are saying much about the Metrobus protest - on fringe of BW and BE - http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/LIVE-UPDATES-Bailiffs-evict-Stapleton-Allotment/story-26159725-detail/story.html

    Another Hall Tweet.

    Darren Hall ‏@DarrenHall2015 Mar 7
    Clear what links most environmental/social injustice and human rights violations are global corporations' greed & unconstrained consumerism.

    Was surprised to see senior Council Transport Official and not politicians involved in press interviews today - Labour Assistant Mayor keeping head down likewise the 'independent' environmentally friendly Mayor in red trousers.


  • Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    Maybe if they organised an opinion poll with say 35 million people and split them into 650 separate polling districts we may get a better reflection of the GE result.

    It'd overstate Labour.

    And downweight UKIP by 25-50%
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    dr_spyn said:
    That is sad.

    "This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version."

    I'm furiously F5'ing, in the hope that he's risen again.

    I'm sure he was personally attended by the big cloaked one himself. "HELLO TERRY"
    :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    Maybe if they organised an opinion poll with say 35 million people and split them into 650 separate polling districts we may get a better reflection of the GE result.

    The Lib Dems would score lower still.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited March 2015
    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ipsos average (Scotland) - last six polls

    Lab 19.2 Con 18.8
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeL said:

    Agree that those less likely to vote are those who won't be registered.

    But that can't possibly explain the whole discrepancy.

    Bottom line is that today's YouGov assumes someone 18 to 24 is as likely to vote as someone 25 to 39.

    It's just about impossible that the above could happen if only 50% of 18 to 24s are registered. It would require turnout of literally just about 100% of the 50% who are registered - and even that might not be quite enough.

    And in practice no way will turnout be anything like 100% amongst the 50% who are registered.

    A part of the discrepency may come from multiple registration. Fox jr is registered at both home and uni. He is certain to vote (a chip off the old block!) but will only vote once. A 100% certainty and 50% in one individual!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Mr. Pong, et al., so says his Twitter feed.
    https://twitter.com/terryandrob

    Sad to hear of Pratchett's death.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,105
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    Maybe if they organised an opinion poll with say 35 million people and split them into 650 separate polling districts we may get a better reflection of the GE result.

    The Lib Dems would score lower still.
    We'll find out in eight weeks or so one way or the other.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    It may be perfectly possible to believe what you believe, but the fact remains that the current legislation acted as a de facto exemption from the law for one particular race. Are you happy with that situation? Or do you think we should tell ourselves that it is absolutely fine, because that is not the effect the statute was intended to have?
    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    It may be perfectly possible to believe what you believe, but the fact remains that the current legislation acted as a de facto exemption from the law for one particular race. Are you happy with that situation? Or do you think we should tell ourselves that it is absolutely fine, because that is not the effect the statute was intended to have?
    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    Calm down dear.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    It may be perfectly possible to believe what you believe, but the fact remains that the current legislation acted as a de facto exemption from the law for one particular race. Are you happy with that situation? Or do you think we should tell ourselves that it is absolutely fine, because that is not the effect the statute was intended to have?
    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    You must be a Labour plant to make Tories look bad.
  • MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    Given that regions are becoming increasingly different in their political make up (i.e. there is no longer a homogenous national landscape) doesn't applying national weightings to the sample run the risk of inserting a level of inaccuracy into the results?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
    Given the dire state of Scottish Labour that last one may not be as wrong as you think ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Sounds like he should have got the sensitive wee soul a nappy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    It may be perfectly possible to believe what you believe, but the fact remains that the current legislation acted as a de facto exemption from the law for one particular race. Are you happy with that situation? Or do you think we should tell ourselves that it is absolutely fine, because that is not the effect the statute was intended to have?
    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    Bore off ting tong
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
    Calculate the 90% confidence intervals on the small sample sizes and I'm pretty sure you'll find that the reasonable numbers lie within the uncertainty range, and that's even with the lack of weighting. The only issue is your unrealistic expectations.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Yes, coz Popbitch is always right. Not.

    (Cl*rkson has a history of taking them to the cleaners too BTW, for publishing false allegations).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
    I agree. A shovel ful of salt required!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    Given that regions are becoming increasingly different in their political make up (i.e. there is no longer a homogenous national landscape) doesn't applying national weightings to the sample run the risk of inserting a level of inaccuracy into the results?
    Yes, there's a risk of that. It would be better if the samples in each area more closely correspond to the demography of that particular area. But that doesn't just apply by regions, it applies by e.g. age too.

    A larger sample would of course help here [which is why aggregating subsamples from a regular series like YouGov works ok as a proxy for regional polling], but a set of weird-looking regional subsamples shouldn't be used to discredit the whole poll.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
    Calculate the 90% confidence intervals on the small sample sizes and I'm pretty sure you'll find that the reasonable numbers lie within the uncertainty range, and that's even with the lack of weighting. The only issue is your unrealistic expectations.
    I don't think it is unrealistic to expect Labour to be ahead in Scotland and behind in the South.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    Indeed. He has brought me great pleasure and amusement for the last 30 years. A fine gentleman who will be much missed.

    Surprised at how upset I am, to be honest. The last tweets on his account are quite moving.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    Given that regions are becoming increasingly different in their political make up (i.e. there is no longer a homogenous national landscape) doesn't applying national weightings to the sample run the risk of inserting a level of inaccuracy into the results?
    It will increase the uncertainty range, but it will only insert a systematic bias if there is a sampling issue - ie if we suppose that Northern Labour 2010 C2 voters are less likely to switch to UKIP than those in Essex that will only be a problem if the sample is more likely to find Labour 2010 C2 voters from the North than from Essex.

    Neither part of that premise seems likely to me.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @isam

    'They link VI back to 2010 vote... Might as well just make it up'

    Explains the refusal to publish the data and the 'competitive' claim.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, Cons on 29% in Scotland. I know it would be expensive to increase the sample size, but IPSOS should definitely look at it, these subsamples are worse than useless with such a small certain to vote sample size.

    The South and London subsamples are even more lolworthy. IPSOS really need to look at increasing the sample size.

    The subsamples aren't supposed to be that useful. They are not weighting within subsamples - they're weighting to make sure that the geographical coverage is even. They're also weighting to other things like previous vote, social class etc. to make sure the national aggreagte is "balanced".

    All of which means, if they get one anomalous region, it's not that surprising to see an anomaly the other way somewhere else.
    I think a poll which as Labour 10 point ahead of the Tories in the South, 20 points ahead in London and 15 points behind in Scotland has issues.
    Calculate the 90% confidence intervals on the small sample sizes and I'm pretty sure you'll find that the reasonable numbers lie within the uncertainty range, and that's even with the lack of weighting. The only issue is your unrealistic expectations.
    I don't think it is unrealistic to expect Labour to be ahead in Scotland and behind in the South.
    And they will be, on average, but the margin of error is large enough with the small sample sizes that sometimes they won't be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Mr. Anorak, only read a few of Pratchett's books (I think it was the City Watch Trilogy). I often read by chapters... which was something of a drawback when I tried doing it with the first book of his I read.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I have to say that the tweets sent out to announce Terry Pratchett's death are immensely stylish:

    http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/81605000/jpg/_81605423_5b9ae1aa-1705-401f-91eb-f62078987da5.jpg
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    john_zims said:

    @isam

    'They link VI back to 2010 vote... Might as well just make it up'

    Explains the refusal to publish the data and the 'competitive' claim.

    You do not know much about opinion polls and past vote weighting do you ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @PClipp

    You do spout a load of rubbish, Charles, though not always of course. But in this case, yes.

    We have a broken voting system, which you Tories insisted in keeping when we had the chance to replace it.

    It is a characteristic of the English that, when something does not work, we do something practical about it. And finally the law catches up.

    Your lot need to change the rules so that people´s votes really do start to count. Mine never does. I always get a stupid Tory MP.


    Well, "we Tories" insisted on giving the people a say. Admittedly it was a forced choice between two flawed systems, but the decision was resoundingly in favour of the current approach.

    I agree that FPTP doesn't work. So campaign for change. Get MPs elected to Parliament. Ensure a popular upsurge and demand for a new system.

    But don't, in your arrogance, take away someone else's right to choose their local representative according to the rules that currently exist. Because that is what you are doing.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm always impressed how often Portland is cited or used as a TV show location. Many shows are produced out of Vancouver, so assume that Portland is a believable location geographically.

    Does anyone know what Kentucky is like?

    FPT Sir Norfolk Passmore

    Having lived in Portland, Oregon myself (and never paid a penny of UK income tax to date) and being something of a distance runner (at a very modest standard indeed these days), I question any weather advantage from training in Portland over London in the winter. Slightly milder temperatures in return for almost daily rain in the winter months. There is an earlier onset of spring and more suitably undulating terrain, but it's hardly warm weather training territory. Then for much of the summer it is unpleasantly hot. I believe his move was to hook up with Salazar.

    My wider point is that it is easy for him to find work here (regardless of changes in discrimination laws) and often that work results in no income for the exchequer (e.g. when he films one of those quorn adverts). Therefore, he is a poor example for use by people with an axe to grind over whatever the hell Farage was trying to say.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    Ite?
    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    If I say "either Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow, or David Cameron is Prime Minister", do you think that is equivalent to saying "Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow"?

    You probably do. You probably don't understand the point I am making. Never mind, nurse will be along shortly with a nice cup of tea.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    If true. just confirms what I've always thought of Jeremy Clarkson.

    A thoroughly unpleasant and nasty piece of work who is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is and has far, far too much to say for himself...
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Ben Wright BBC News

    "We've certainly seen a reverse ferret from Nigel Farage during the course of the day. In the interview with Trevor Phillips he was quite clear - asked if he thought there was a need for a law against discrimination on the grounds of nationality, race, colour, Mr Farage said 'No'.
    Today, though, he is making it quite clear that he thinks there's no need to fiddle with the rules around discrimination - but he does think there is a need to make it possible for employers to hire on the basis of nationality. It is a retreat from this interview... And that's provoked a huge political backlash from his opponents."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    Agreed. I can think of no other author who I have read so much and so consistently for almost 20 years now, and one who has at various times made me both laugh and think in a way far too many 'serious' works fail to do even the latter.

    I often read by chapters... which was something of a drawback when I tried doing it with the first book of his I read.

    The Moist von Lipwig series are your friend there, those have proper chapters.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    Ite?

    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    If I say "either Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow, or David Cameron is Prime Minister", do you think that is equivalent to saying "Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow"?

    You probably do. You probably don't understand the point I am making. Never mind, nurse will be along shortly with a nice cup of tea.
    You don't need to say that Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow (that being self-evident) so there's no need to raise it, except to put that image into people's minds for some purpose.

    Your purpose in the original case was clearly to smear the poster you were replying to. It was undignified and as a debating tactic entirely reprehensible.

    Do you hit your wife?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the previous thread Ishmael_X seemed to imply that if I was against the removal of anti-discrimination laws that somehow meant that I was denying that child rape took place in Rotherham, an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away.

    ...

    ...

    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    You are correct. Indeed as you say... ''an argument so wrong and, incidentally, offensive, as to take my breath away''
    I find it sickening that the disgracefully lax attitude to the rapes in Rotherham are being used an as excuse to withdraw the race relations act.
    What Farage is doing is turning out lots of worms from under a stone. Once he realises he can get away with it he will kick out a few more. His remarks are disgusting and the people he hopes to attract (because they know just how they would like to exploit the abolition) are even more disgusting.
    If I say "either Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow, or David Cameron is Prime Minister", do you think that is equivalent to saying "Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow"?

    You probably do. You probably don't understand the point I am making. Never mind, nurse will be along shortly with a nice cup of tea.
    Never mind, you are as bad as Farage when it comes to dog whistling. Nit picking over someone specifically saying he wants to repeal race relations laws only exposes you. I know just the sort of people who would relish repeal of race relations laws thank you very much.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,354
    chestnut said:

    Ipsos average (Scotland) - last six polls

    Lab 19.2 Con 18.8

    McCross-over?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Alas, Mr. kle4, I have a monumental to-read list already [and still want to get Words of Radiance and Sworn in Steel]. It'll be a while before I read another Pratchett book, alas [haven't read a proper classical history for ages. A year, I think, and that's if you count Ammianus Marcellinus].
  • Plato said:

    I'm always impressed how often Portland is cited or used as a TV show location. Many shows are produced out of Vancouver, so assume that Portland is a believable location geographically.

    Assuming you mean Vancouver, BC rather than Vancouver, WA (which is just across the Columbia from Portland), they do look fairly similar (and there's a fair cultural overlap - hipsterish). Having lived in Ohio as well, I'm fairly certain you wouldn't want to be moving to Kentucky for winter running purposes!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    I would say any of the earlier ones, they flesh out the Discworld (if it is those ones you intent to read)
    The Colour of Magic is a bit disjointed, but the "witches" ones are a good intro.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
    Start at the beginning: The Color of Magic
    He developed a fairly detailed world; in the later books you really need to know the players & politics to get the most out of them.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MarkSenior

    If there's nothing to hide just publish the data and cut the 'competitive' crap.

    No wonder Survation are going out of the way to distance themselves from it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F
    I would say any of the earlier ones, they flesh out the Discworld (if it is those ones you intent to read)
    The Colour of Magic is a bit disjointed, but the "witches" ones are a good intro.

    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
    Start at the beginning: The Color of Magic
    He developed a fairly detailed world; in the later books you really need to know the players & politics to get the most out of them.
    Thanks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    If there's nothing to hide just publish the data and cut the 'competitive' crap.

    No wonder Survation are going out of the way to distance themselves from it.

    "Competitive" could mean being 10% behind.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited March 2015
    I never said that. Modern technology confusing for you?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Excellent trolling of the French by the Belgians. New €2 coin featuring Waterloo. The French are unimpressed, bless 'em.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31849506
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    Charles said:

    FPT @PClipp

    You do spout a load of rubbish, Charles, though not always of course. But in this case, yes.

    We have a broken voting system, which you Tories insisted in keeping when we had the chance to replace it.

    It is a characteristic of the English that, when something does not work, we do something practical about it. And finally the law catches up.

    Your lot need to change the rules so that people´s votes really do start to count. Mine never does. I always get a stupid Tory MP.


    Well, "we Tories" insisted on giving the people a say. Admittedly it was a forced choice between two flawed systems, but the decision was resoundingly in favour of the current approach.

    I agree that FPTP doesn't work. So campaign for change. Get MPs elected to Parliament. Ensure a popular upsurge and demand for a new system.

    But don't, in your arrogance, take away someone else's right to choose their local representative according to the rules that currently exist. Because that is what you are doing.

    Just looked back at the previous threads. I agree, vote trading shouldn't be acceptable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Sean_F said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
    There are several 'strands' of series I suppose would be the best way to put it, focusing on different types of characters, but personally I would suggest starting with Men-at-Arms or Feet of Clay (the 2nd and 3rd books of the City Watch strand respectively) - Feet of Clay was my first Pratchett book, and both seem good starting points.

    (Guards Guards, the first in the sequence, is still ok, but not as well written as those two IMO - though it has an opening dedication that is note perfect:

    They may be called the Palace Guard, the City Guard, or the patrol. Whatever the name, their purpose in any work of heroic fantasy is identical: it is, round about Chapter Three (or ten minutes into the film) to rush into the room, attack the hero one at a time, and be slaughtered. No one ever asks them if they wanted to. This book is dedicated to those fine men

    The Truth is a fun almost standalone, Going Postal is good for new readers as it had a new protagonist focusing on parts of the city other books did not really touch on

    Good Omens is a great non-discworld comedy about the apocalypse co-written with Neil Gaiman.

    Just a few.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I suspect many people are for/against repealing many race relations laws without really knowing what those laws are.

    I know I don't.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F
    I would say any of the earlier ones, they flesh out the Discworld (if it is those ones you intent to read)
    The Colour of Magic is a bit disjointed, but the "witches" ones are a good intro.

    True. Equal Rites, Mort, and Pyramids are all excellent starters, too.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Ben Wright BBC News

    "We've certainly seen a reverse ferret from Nigel Farage during the course of the day. In the interview with Trevor Phillips he was quite clear - asked if he thought there was a need for a law against discrimination on the grounds of nationality, race, colour, Mr Farage said 'No'.
    Today, though, he is making it quite clear that he thinks there's no need to fiddle with the rules around discrimination - but he does think there is a need to make it possible for employers to hire on the basis of nationality. It is a retreat from this interview... And that's provoked a huge political backlash from his opponents."

    @Ishmael_X Farage says no need to fiddle around with the laws on discrimination. I think you should ask him if there's no need to fiddle around with the law which caused industrial scale racist sexual exploitation of children. And do it in a way that implies he must support the exploitation otherwise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F
    I would say any of the earlier ones, they flesh out the Discworld (if it is those ones you intent to read)
    The Colour of Magic is a bit disjointed, but the "witches" ones are a good intro.

    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
    Start at the beginning: The Color of Magic
    He developed a fairly detailed world; in the later books you really need to know the players & politics to get the most out of them.
    Thanks.
    Colour of Magic is more disjointed than the others I should say, as stated - it started the whole thing, and I like it, but style wise it is a bit different, so if it's not your thing might be worth giving another one a try.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Provided the producer was Irish and could be shown to have been lazy in not organising food, I can't see any problem.

    The sort of everyday language used at work around the country.

    Arguments at work can end up with a punch ot two. I can recall an argument at a board meeting of the UK's biggest exporter when the overseas sales director and the distribution director disagreed over who was responsible for missing export targets. It ended in a punch up but they stepped outside the board room to do it. The next day they carried on working together, no problem and no one was bothered. In fact the fight meant they had respect for each other and that they really caried about the business.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha! I had no idea there were two Vancouvers. I meant the BC one. I was asked by a friend to recommend a state with a British Isles climate and went totally blank. I thought maybe Kentucky would be a reasonable fit as a wild guess.

    I'm a deserts and mountains sort that hates bugs that look like helicopters... I know which bits of the US I've loved and hated - but there's about 40 states I've never experienced.

    Plato said:

    I'm always impressed how often Portland is cited or used as a TV show location. Many shows are produced out of Vancouver, so assume that Portland is a believable location geographically.

    Assuming you mean Vancouver, BC rather than Vancouver, WA (which is just across the Columbia from Portland), they do look fairly similar (and there's a fair cultural overlap - hipsterish). Having lived in Ohio as well, I'm fairly certain you wouldn't want to be moving to Kentucky for winter running purposes!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    The "witches" books can be read as a three book mini series and is a great way to start if you like to read books quickly.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witches_(Discworld)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    edited March 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    If true. just confirms what I've always thought of Jeremy Clarkson.

    A thoroughly unpleasant and nasty piece of work who is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is and has far, far too much to say for himself...
    I also find it quite amusing that an old, fat, out of shape loud-mouth like him seemingly tried to get into a fight with someone half his age.

    On another day, with another person, he might well have been put on arse and made to look the utter fool he is! :smiley:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    I've never read any of his books. Which would you suggest that a new reader should start with?
    I'd start with Mort. The first couple are good, but he took a couple of books to really unlock his humour and style.

    Death takes on an apprentice who struggles to get used to the job. And finds that carrying a scythe around can have a negative impact on his love life...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Discworld novels are gently amusing rather than major works of literature. My favourites are Soul Music, Monstrous Regiment, Small Gods and Lords And Ladies. But really you can dip in and out anywhere in the series.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited March 2015

    Ishmael_X said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    No, I said that either you deny the offences took place or you deny that they were facilitated by the race relations legislation. You need to brush up on your Boolean operators.

    Ite?

    I do not deny the offences took place. Nor do I deny the attitudes behind why they were overlooked. I have been - from memory - rather more vigorous than you in criticising those attitudes.

    The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.

    The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.

    snip
    If I say "either Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow, or David Cameron is Prime Minister", do you think that is equivalent to saying "Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow"?

    You probably do. You probably don't understand the point I am making. Never mind, nurse will be along shortly with a nice cup of tea.
    You don't need to say that Eric Pickles is constructed entirely of marshmallow (that being self-evident) so there's no need to raise it, except to put that image into people's minds for some purpose.

    Your purpose in the original case was clearly to smear the poster you were replying to. It was undignified and as a debating tactic entirely reprehensible.

    Do you hit your wife?
    No, "Do you hit your wife" doesn't work. Are you aiming for "have you stopped beating your wife?" If so what is your point?

    What I said was:

    "Your fallacy is thinking that "X is good" materially implies "Legislation stipulating that X shall be the case is good". Lower gas prices and TV debates, for instance. It doesn't work in those cases, and if you think it works for racial discrimination you have to defend the thesis that no child rape took place in Rotherham, or that race relations law played no part at all in facilitating it. Which of those would you like to have a go at?"

    How is it "smearing" anybody to point out a necessary and uncontroversial corollary of their argument? And I do mean uncontroversial; nobody questions that Rotherham was a product of the race relations industry.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Indeed. In a way I should blame Sir Terry though - many are the times I should have been reading some new purchase or trying out some new author, but instead I just decided to re-read that particular trilogy instead, so he was partially responsible for my unread pile of books problem :)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296
    Those MORI Leader ratings. Good for Nige

    David Cameron maintains a higher net satisfaction level (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) with -16 (38% satisfied and 54% dissatisfied) over Ed Miliband with -31 despite Mr Miliband gaining some ground since February (up from -35 in February). Nick Clegg remains the least popular leader with a net satisfaction level of -36 while Nigel Farage has become the most popular leader with a score of -12 (up from -23 in February).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Provided the producer was Irish and could be shown to have been lazy in not organising food, I can't see any problem.

    The sort of everyday language used at work around the country.

    Arguments at work can end up with a punch ot two. I can recall an argument at a board meeting of the UK's biggest exporter when the overseas sales director and the distribution director disagreed over who was responsible for missing export targets. It ended in a punch up but they stepped outside the board room to do it. The next day they carried on working together, no problem and no one was bothered. In fact the fight meant they had respect for each other and that they really caried about the business.
    I think you should get sacked for behaviour like that.

    I can see how being a star TV presenter would complicate that though.
  • Clarkson petition goes through the 750,000 mark
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742
    edited March 2015
    JohnO said:

    Those MORI Leader ratings. Good for Nige

    David Cameron maintains a higher net satisfaction level (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) with -16 (38% satisfied and 54% dissatisfied) over Ed Miliband with -31 despite Mr Miliband gaining some ground since February (up from -35 in February). Nick Clegg remains the least popular leader with a net satisfaction level of -36 while Nigel Farage has become the most popular leader with a score of -12 (up from -23 in February).

    What are the changes from last MORI ?

    For Nick & Dave
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Provided the producer was Irish and could be shown to have been lazy in not organising food, I can't see any problem.

    The sort of everyday language used at work around the country.

    Arguments at work can end up with a punch ot two. I can recall an argument at a board meeting of the UK's biggest exporter when the overseas sales director and the distribution director disagreed over who was responsible for missing export targets. It ended in a punch up but they stepped outside the board room to do it. The next day they carried on working together, no problem and no one was bothered. In fact the fight meant they had respect for each other and that they really caried about the business.
    You seem to be struggling with the concept that assaulting a colleague might be something your employer could take a dim view of. It's not really that difficult a concept to grasp.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited March 2015
    john_zims said:

    @isam

    'They link VI back to 2010 vote... Might as well just make it up'

    Explains the refusal to publish the data and the 'competitive' claim.

    You don't know what you are talking about.

    Ashcroft & ICM link back to 2010 vote but dilute it to take account of false recall. That is their primary means of political weighting. Are you saying that they might as well make it up?
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    Ha! I had no idea there were two Vancouvers. I meant the BC one. I was asked by a friend to recommend a state with a British Isles climate and went totally blank. I thought maybe Kentucky would be a reasonable fit as a wild guess.

    Coastal areas of Washington and Oregon are probably the nearest, like a slightly warmer version of the west of Scotland (without the midges).

    Kentucky is probably more comparable to somewhere in Eastern Europe (not sure how far south). Plenty of snow, but hot summers.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31858156
    Fantasy author Sir Terry Pratchett has died aged 66, having had Alzheimer's disease for eight years.

    Sad that Terry Pratchett has died, but even sadder that he developed Alzheimers. A fine comic writer.
  • Earlier today in the Commons, in a statement on the Ebola epidemic, the minister said the Queen had approved a medal for people involved in the British relief effort, though I'm not clear whether it's just for the military, or whether the NHS staff involved will also be eligible.

    It's certainly well deserved. All those people are risking their lives, as surely as any soldier in battle.

    Hopefully, nobody will try to gain political advantage from this, attempting to associate their party with brave NHS workers/heroic soldiers, but with a heated general election campaign looming, I wouldn't be surprised if some candidate does, and is promptly disowned by their party.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    FPT @PClipp

    ...

    Well, "we Tories" insisted on giving the people a say. Admittedly it was a forced choice between two flawed systems, but the decision was resoundingly in favour of the current approach.

    I agree that FPTP doesn't work. So campaign for change. Get MPs elected to Parliament. Ensure a popular upsurge and demand for a new system.

    But don't, in your arrogance, take away someone else's right to choose their local representative according to the rules that currently exist. Because that is what you are doing.

    I think you are beating yourself up over not very much. Our current electoral boundaries are flawed and out of date. Its a fundamental fact when it comes to our current system and its a disgrace that the boundaries are not being drawn to be more equal. The fact that some constituencies are marginal and others are not does not invalidate the system.
    The notion that we are voting for an MP to represent us is shot to pieces if you start to 'vote swap' - its a typical piece of cleverdick libdemism: 'I've got my cake and I can eat it too'. It takes away the notion that an MP is responsible to his/her electorate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Mr. kle4, I try to read new things, and books by new authors, as much as possible [despite lack of space/time]. Generally, I prefer stand-alone books to series [although there are exceptions, First Law, A Song of Ice and Fire etc].
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024

    Mr. kle4, I try to read new things, and books by new authors, as much as possible [despite lack of space/time]. Generally, I prefer stand-alone books to series [although there are exceptions, First Law, A Song of Ice and Fire etc].

    I'm actually the opposite - series before stand-alones/ Probably why seeing this today feels very appropriate:

    THE fantasy-reading community has been left confused by a tale of noble houses, war and dragons that concludes in one volume.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/fantasy-novel-not-part-of-a-trilogy-2015031296147

    The thing is, it would confuse me.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.
  • Sad news, the 125 up and down the East Coast line are great, far more comfortable than the electric trains. Also putting the engines under the floor is awful for comfort as anybody who's been on a cross country service will testify!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31831603

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Provided the producer was Irish and could be shown to have been lazy in not organising food, I can't see any problem.

    The sort of everyday language used at work around the country.

    Arguments at work can end up with a punch ot two. I can recall an argument at a board meeting of the UK's biggest exporter when the overseas sales director and the distribution director disagreed over who was responsible for missing export targets. It ended in a punch up but they stepped outside the board room to do it. The next day they carried on working together, no problem and no one was bothered. In fact the fight meant they had respect for each other and that they really caried about the business.
    You seem to be struggling with the concept that assaulting a colleague might be something your employer could take a dim view of. It's not really that difficult a concept to grasp.

    Why, you can barely go three feet in a proper workplace without being assaulted, it's child's play. Any words to the contrary are leftist conspiracies.

    As anotherdave says, it's merely the fact of him being a tv presenter, that is a big star, that is complicating matters, if indeed things happened as we hear. There's no way the BBC want to fire such a money spinner for them no matter what he did, but sometimes your hand is forced.

    Liverpool didn't want to sell Suarez either I'd bet, but another biting incident had been set as a red line, unfortunately for them.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    Those MORI Leader ratings. Good for Nige

    David Cameron maintains a higher net satisfaction level (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) with -16 (38% satisfied and 54% dissatisfied) over Ed Miliband with -31 despite Mr Miliband gaining some ground since February (up from -35 in February). Nick Clegg remains the least popular leader with a net satisfaction level of -36 while Nigel Farage has become the most popular leader with a score of -12 (up from -23 in February).

    What are the changes from last MORI ?

    For Nick & Dave
    Everything in bootiful technicolor

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/March15_Pol Monitor charts_VI_THR_FINAL.pdf

    Expect a new thread soon.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    how many of them can't vote...franchise hasn't been lowered to include schoolchildren.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742
    That "All giving a VI" precisely matches the 8000 poll Ashcroft survey. (4% Lab lead)

    Which means we're all in the shit after May.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ben Wright BBC News

    "We've certainly seen a reverse ferret from Nigel Farage during the course of the day. In the interview with Trevor Phillips he was quite clear - asked if he thought there was a need for a law against discrimination on the grounds of nationality, race, colour, Mr Farage said 'No'.
    Today, though, he is making it quite clear that he thinks there's no need to fiddle with the rules around discrimination - but he does think there is a need to make it possible for employers to hire on the basis of nationality. It is a retreat from this interview... And that's provoked a huge political backlash from his opponents."

    @Ishmael_X Farage says no need to fiddle around with the laws on discrimination. I think you should ask him if there's no need to fiddle around with the law which caused industrial scale racist sexual exploitation of children. And do it in a way that implies he must support the exploitation otherwise.
    I don't understand the question. You could ask him yourself, perhaps?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742
    dr_spyn said:

    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    how many of them can't vote...franchise hasn't been lowered to include schoolchildren.
    16-34 is a wide range. Includes yours truly ;D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Isam.


    "Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    12/03/2015 14:22
    .@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1 "

    I couldn't access this story. I was curious because I remembered the name Alex Wickham from this. Quite a piece of work.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/30/sundaymirror-guidofawkes

    Yeah this isn't his story though it's just something he had passed on

    Apparently Clarkson said 'where's our food you f- ing lazy Irish Cnut' to the producer before the punch
    Provided the producer was Irish and could be shown to have been lazy in not organising food, I can't see any problem.

    The sort of everyday language used at work around the country.

    Arguments at work can end up with a punch ot two. I can recall an argument at a board meeting of the UK's biggest exporter when the overseas sales director and the distribution director disagreed over who was responsible for missing export targets. It ended in a punch up but they stepped outside the board room to do it. The next day they carried on working together, no problem and no one was bothered. In fact the fight meant they had respect for each other and that they really caried about the business.
    You seem to be struggling with the concept that assaulting a colleague might be something your employer could take a dim view of. It's not really that difficult a concept to grasp.

    I did have one case where an employee got summarily dismissed for flinging a chisel at his boss's son's head, which I thought was fair enough. But, the Employment Tribunal ruled it was an unfair dismissal (albeit, the sacked employee was 90% to blame for his dismissal).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    Operation Humanize Ed Part 2....I presume he will be doing Loose Women, This Morning etc shortly.

    I wonder if Dave will run away from these kind of opportunities as well?

    Edit: "Rick Edwards presents the first of four debates as leading representatives from each of the main political parties."

    That makes it sound like not all the leaders will be attending.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,742

    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    Operation Humanize Ed Part 2....I presume he will be doing Loose Women, This Morning etc shortly.

    I wonder if Dave will run away from these kind of opportunities as well?
    Dave is screwing this one up.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    I think you should get sacked for behaviour like that.

    I can see how being a star TV presenter would complicate that though.

    Outside the public sector or very large corporations with process based HR, it is IMHO something that gets you fired if they would be glad to see the back of you or need to shed staff. Otherwise it tends to get sorted out unless the matter is so serious that Knacker gets involved.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    kle4 said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    Agreed. I can think of no other author who I have read so much and so consistently for almost 20 years now, and one who has at various times made me both laugh and think in a way far too many 'serious' works fail to do even the latter.

    I often read by chapters... which was something of a drawback when I tried doing it with the first book of his I read.

    The Moist von Lipwig series are your friend there, those have proper chapters.

    A good comic writer as I said below (4:47pm), but by no means the best fantasy writer. Not a touch on GRR Martin, Tolkien, Robert Jordan, Brandon Sanderson, Tad Williams and Steven Erikson, to name just a few.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024

    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    Operation Humanize Ed Part 2....I presume he will be doing Loose Women, This Morning etc shortly.

    I wonder if Dave will run away from these kind of opportunities as well?
    Let's hope he does better than Gordon if asked what his favourite biscuit is. For my part, I voted LD because Clegg's answer matched my own exactly, namely "Rich Tea “when dunked” in tea and Hob Nobs “when not dunked""
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    MikeK said:

    kle4 said:

    Politics can go hang today. The passing of Sir Terry Pratchett is one of the saddest events of recent times for me.

    Rest in peace and thanks for giving me more enjoyment and enlightenment than any other author of modern times.

    Agreed. I can think of no other author who I have read so much and so consistently for almost 20 years now, and one who has at various times made me both laugh and think in a way far too many 'serious' works fail to do even the latter.

    I often read by chapters... which was something of a drawback when I tried doing it with the first book of his I read.

    The Moist von Lipwig series are your friend there, those have proper chapters.

    A good comic writer as I said below (4:47pm), but by no means the best fantasy writer. Not a touch on GRR Martin, Tolkien, Robert Jordan, Brandon Sanderson, Tad Williams and Steven Erikson, to name just a few.
    I wouldn't dispute that - very different types of writer trying to do different things. Jordan and Martin are probably my favourite pure fantasy authors, but overall, Pratchett tops the list for me.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ben Wright BBC News

    "We've certainly seen a reverse ferret from Nigel Farage during the course of the day. In the interview with Trevor Phillips he was quite clear - asked if he thought there was a need for a law against discrimination on the grounds of nationality, race, colour, Mr Farage said 'No'.
    Today, though, he is making it quite clear that he thinks there's no need to fiddle with the rules around discrimination - but he does think there is a need to make it possible for employers to hire on the basis of nationality. It is a retreat from this interview... And that's provoked a huge political backlash from his opponents."

    @Ishmael_X Farage says no need to fiddle around with the laws on discrimination. I think you should ask him if there's no need to fiddle around with the law which caused industrial scale racist sexual exploitation of children. And do it in a way that implies he must support the exploitation otherwise.
    I don't understand the question. You could ask him yourself, perhaps?
    Why would I ask? I don't try to insinuate that anyone who advocates not changing the race relations laws must therefore support all the effects they've had.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Financier said:

    EdM being questioned tonight BBC3 8pm He faces 100 voters aged 16-34.

    Operation Humanize Ed Part 2....I presume he will be doing Loose Women, This Morning etc shortly.

    I wonder if Dave will run away from these kind of opportunities as well?

    Edit: "Rick Edwards presents the first of four debates as leading representatives from each of the main political parties."

    That makes it sound like not all the leaders will be attending.
    If its on BBC no doubt he will be viciously attacked with marshmallow questions and 99 of the voters attending will be card carrying Labour supporters.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thanx, will pass on your expertise here. He's a conservative sort and doesn't enjoy unfamiliar climates much. I love them so am an useless yardstick.

    Plato said:

    I'm always impressed how often Portland is cited or used as a TV show location. Many shows are produced out of Vancouver, so assume that Portland is a believable location geographically.

    Assuming you mean Vancouver, BC rather than Vancouver, WA (which is just across the Columbia from Portland), they do look fairly similar (and there's a fair cultural overlap - hipsterish). Having lived in Ohio as well, I'm fairly certain you wouldn't want to be moving to Kentucky for winter running purposes!
This discussion has been closed.