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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP the big gainer with Ipsos-MORI while LAB retains a lead
53% told Ipsos Standard poll they thought it's “time for a change” & just 32% said Tories deserved to win election.
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Also the all giving a VI figures.
Come on Ipsos Mori, pull tha bloody finger out.
(Cons 1.3% ahead in part-ELBOW for polls so far this week up to last night's YG)
Illegal use of a tripod (I kid you not)
https://instagram.com/arusbridger/p/0IEm3OPKWe/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31848517
"The mainstream media and chattering-class fury with Farage is really a story of the terrifying narrowing of the political sphere in Britain in recent years.
Concrete consensuses have emerged on everything from the environment (endangered) to economic growth (not a great idea), from the spread of the welfare state (unquestionably brilliant) to the policing of personal lifestyle (all good).
And a vast battery of insults, often pathological, have arisen to chastise anyone who pricks any of these consensus views. Question the environment thing and you’re a DENIER. Wonder if Western democracy is superior to Islamist radicalism and you’re ISLAMOPHOBIC. Challenge the smoking ban and you’re PRO-CANCER.
The things it is acceptable to think and say shrink all the time, and the parameters of thought and opinion are tightly policed by the media, the Twittersphere and politicians themselves.
Farage is feared, across the board, because he stands, often self-consciously, outside the bland, ideology-free, human-suspicious moral and political agenda now promoted by all sides in British politics and the media."
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/im-taking-on-the-establishment-and-they-hate-me-for-it/
~£40 profit on the day, which means I think I'm down about a fiver for the festival overall.
Cyclefree said:
Agree entirely; ditto re the laws on sexual discrimination etc. Equality under the law matters and someone who is discriminated against because of their sex/sexuality/whatever - when that is irrelevant - is not being treated equally under the law.
Going back to such days is not attractive - however much it may be to those who support UKIP.
The problem is that the law, as is, rarely provides equality (I can point to discrimination in gender, sexuality and employment law) but instead provides positive discrimination for various groups. One could argue that all Farage is doing is changing the dynamics of who receives that positive discrimination.
Anyone have any idea what Vautour will race in next year though - Arkle ?
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/sack-jeremy-clarkson?bucket&source=facebook-share-button&time=1426109503
And let's not forget, that means that 64,081,502 people haven't signed the petition to get him sacked
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/517422/polling-suggests-lib-dems-can-retain-north-east-seat/
It-is-ok. I-think-we-understand what-he-means.
Sure big businesses and public sector are no problem, but most jobs, especially if you have lower qualifications are with small businesses.
A small business knows that a race discrimination case might well ruin the business. They know that if they hire someone from a minority who turns out to be a bad egg or incompetent and they try and get rid of them they might face such a claim and the burden of proof is on them not the complaint.
Hire a non disabled white male and they can fire them at will with no comeback for the first two years.
Businesses avoid risk and it is very difficult to prove discrimination in the recruitment process unless the recruiter is crass or stupid.
So the white man gets the job and minority unemployment becomes disproportionate
For the record, I have never said any such thing, do not believe it, have argued vigorously in favour of prosecution of all those involved and against the sort of attitudes which led to people turning a blind eye in Rotherham and elsewhere
It is possible to believe that a person should not be discriminated against on the grounds of their race in relation to employment and at the same time think that that person should not be exempt from prosecution if they themselves breach the law or indeed be exempt from criticism simply because they are of a particular race. The two are not mutually exclusive.
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/things-we-wont-say-about-race-that-are-true
As if Labour did not have enough advantages. Having the election on a Thursday must be worth at least another 3% to them.
More than half the public — 53 per cent — think it is “time for a change” and only 32 per cent agreed the Conservatives deserved to win the election.
Time for a change can mean, Tory government only, Lib Dem government only, Labour government only...and "deserve" to win the election from a pushed question.
SNP on 25%? Yeah right.
Would love to see him saying this with Carswell sat next to him.
http://www.channel4.com/info/press/news/farage-ukip-government-could-scrap-race-discrimination-laws
It may be perfectly possible to believe what you believe, but the fact remains that the current legislation acted as a de facto exemption from the law for one particular race. Are you happy with that situation? Or do you think we should tell ourselves that it is absolutely fine, because that is not the effect the statute was intended to have?
EdM will be PM 8 weeks tomorrow.
Having lived in Portland, Oregon myself (and never paid a penny of UK income tax to date) and being something of a distance runner (at a very modest standard indeed these days), I question any weather advantage from training in Portland over London in the winter. Slightly milder temperatures in return for almost daily rain in the winter months. There is an earlier onset of spring and more suitably undulating terrain, but it's hardly warm weather training territory. Then for much of the summer it is unpleasantly hot. I believe his move was to hook up with Salazar.
My wider point is that it is easy for him to find work here (regardless of changes in discrimination laws) and often that work results in no income for the exchequer (e.g. when he films one of those quorn adverts). Therefore, he is a poor example for use by people with an axe to grind over whatever the hell Farage was trying to say.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/03/Hornsey-Wood-Green-Lib-Dem-poll.pdf
Paula Radcliffe did the same, registering herself in Monaco and I bet on closer inspection a lot of athletes do. They are in that luxury position of earning around the world and also residing in several countries for legitimate training reasons.
Is this being accounted for in poll weightings?
It's not trivial.
"'I kept thinking: "I've worked hard all my life - how can it be possible that someone can come into my shop, talk to me for ten minutes and then sue me for £34,000? How is that possibly fair?".'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1027300/How-I-nearly-lost-business-refusing-hire-Muslim-hair-stylist-wouldnt-hair.html
Do you really dispute or have difficulty with any of that? If so, which bits?
The shootings happened outside police headquarters, where protesters had gathered following the resignation of the chief of police.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31846425
"Survation were not responsible for drafting the questionnaires used, sampling design discussions or analysis of the results. These polls should therefore not properly be described as “Survation polls”. "
http://survation.com/in-reference-to-recent-liberal-democrat-polling-shared-privately-with-the-media/
Weighted samples in today's YouGov:
18 to 24 (7 year band) = 206 = 29 people per year
25 to 39 (15 year band) = 437 = 29 people per year
Assuming same number of people of each age (and it certainly won't vary much) then 18 to 24s are being weighted exactly the same as 25 to 39s.
So if only half of them are registered they have been massively overstated - on the face of it getting on for double the correct weighting (if we assume say 90% are registered above age 24).
And YouGov had Lab ahead by 12 points amongst 18 to 24s.
This looks like it could be very significant - Individual Voter Registration might be the single most important thing Cameron has done for his chances of remaining in power.
It will be interesting to see if they work.
The reasons why such attitudes developed and took root are rather more complex than you seem to allow. The fact that some people have - wrongly - shouted "racism" in order to try and avoid scrutiny does not mean that we should not continue to deal sensibly with genuine discrimination on irrelevant grounds when it occurs.
The fact that so many people have cheered the idea of getting rid of anti-discrimination laws suggests to me that some of them, anyway, are quite indifferent to the harm that such discrimination causes, both to individuals and wider society. Using child rape as the justification for why the removal of anti-discrimination laws is necessary is pretty low, frankly. We will end up dealing with neither problem properly.
This duty is the most pernicious, it acts like a witchfinder not just in the institution, but in every thing it has its finger in. A duty to promote racial equality, means taking action that assist those who are minority groups.
This can be interpreted in the purest forms of multiculturalism. It defines as all non white no british cultures are a minority in society, and are overwhelmed by the (racist and oppresive) host culture. Action must be taken to level up minority cultures and level down the host culture. This morphs into a criticism of a minority culture could be damaging to general relations because we dont want to reinforce prejudices, and they are already oppressed.
How large that proportion will be is another matter.
In other words, YouGov's weightings may be wrong, but the voter registration changes won't have had a significant effect, in my opinion.
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
12/03/2015 14:22
.@popbitch has an (x-rated) update to the Clarkson story... pic.twitter.com/XyQ8UOzVV1
In the past the Universities and Colleges automatically registered ALL students living in Halls of Residence etc. Therefore a great many students could vote on polling day because they had been registered by someone else. This time round, far fewer will be registered because they have to get off their arses and do it for themselves. I saw a reference last week to either Bristol or Cardiff where they reckoned that student registration is down by something like 50%.
It will also be interesting to see turnout in those marginal constituencies where there has been a history of voter fraud, particularly within some sections of the South Asian community. It will be fascinating to see how much the electoral roll changed in seats like Dewsbury and some of the Birmingham seats. It will also be fascinating to see the effect of individual voter registration on the number of postal/proxy votes.
But that can't possibly explain the whole discrepancy.
Bottom line is that today's YouGov assumes someone 18 to 24 is as likely to vote as someone 25 to 39.
It's just about impossible that the above could happen if only 50% of 18 to 24s are registered. It would require turnout of literally just about 100% of the 50% who are registered - and even that might not be quite enough.
And in practice no way will turnout be anything like 100% amongst the 50% who are registered.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31858156
Farage Race Row: Once Again the Media Badly Misrepresent the UKIP Leader
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/03/12/farage-race-row-once-again-the-media-badly-misrepresent-the-ukip-leader/
Such a shame that the voting system has not similarly moved with the times, and that my constituency will inevitably return a Conservative MP.
"This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version."
I'm furiously F5'ing, in the hope that he's risen again.
I hope he got his wish.
I watched Roger Stone (former leader of Rotherham council) giving evidence to the Parliamentary Committee this week. A real dimwit, or a really good act. I see now what the Casey Review called 'denial'.
Full of barely-suppressed anger that anyone should question him, he didn't close down the unit dealing with the complaints - they 'needed' more management so he neutered them.
Not his fault at all.
The London and South numbers are worth a chuckle.
Darren Hall @DarrenHall2015 54m54 minutes ago
Today is a good day - we have just passed 2000 members of @bristolgreen. Does anybody know how we compare to the other Parties in Bristol?